Trends in the Michigan Economy: Presentation to the Michigan Climate Action Committee Steven R....

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Trends in the Michigan Economy: Presentation to the Michigan Climate Action Committee Steven R. Miller October 30, 2009
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Page 1: Trends in the Michigan Economy: Presentation to the Michigan Climate Action Committee Steven R. Miller October 30, 2009.

Trends in the Michigan Economy:Presentation to the

Michigan Climate Action Committee

Steven R. Miller

October 30, 2009

Page 2: Trends in the Michigan Economy: Presentation to the Michigan Climate Action Committee Steven R. Miller October 30, 2009.

Michigan Employment Growth by Industry March 2008 to March 2009

Michigan Rate of Employment ChangeMarch 2009/March 2008

1.5-1.0

-3.3-3.7-3.8

-6.0-6.4-6.6-6.9

-10.3-12.4

-16.3

-20.0 -15.0 -10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0

Education & Health ServicesGovernment

Other ServicesLeisure & Hospitality

MiningFinancial Activities

TotalTrade Transportation & Utilities

InformationConstruction

Professional & Business ServicesManufacturing

Percent Change

Source: BLS, CES

Page 3: Trends in the Michigan Economy: Presentation to the Michigan Climate Action Committee Steven R. Miller October 30, 2009.

Michigan Employment is Deepening in Rural Counties

Percent of State and Federal Non-Ag Employment in Non-Metropolitan Counties

0

5

10

15

20

25

1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004

Year

Per

cen

t

U.S.Michigan

Page 4: Trends in the Michigan Economy: Presentation to the Michigan Climate Action Committee Steven R. Miller October 30, 2009.

Employment in Selected Sectors in Michigan: 1990, 2000,2008

0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200

Farm

Durable Goods MFG

Ndurable Goods MFG

Trade, Transport, Utilities

Info, Finance, Real Est.

Prof. & Bus. Svcs.

Ed. & Health Svcs.

Leisure & Hosp.

Gov.

1990

2000

2008

Michigan’s Employment Distribution Hardly Resembles the Nation

Employment in Selected Sectors in U.S: 1990, 2000,2008

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000

Farm

Durable Goods MFG

Ndurable Goods MFG

Trade, Transport, Utilities

Info, Finance, Real Est.

Prof. & Bus. Svcs.

Ed. & Health Svcs.

Leisure & Hosp.

Gov.

1990

2000

2008

Source: BEA: REIS

Page 5: Trends in the Michigan Economy: Presentation to the Michigan Climate Action Committee Steven R. Miller October 30, 2009.

Percent of Total Employment Engaged in Manufacturing, 2008

Percent of Employment in Manufacturing

1 - 6

7 - 10

11 - 15

16 - 20

21 - 31

State: 12

Source: BEA, REIS

Page 6: Trends in the Michigan Economy: Presentation to the Michigan Climate Action Committee Steven R. Miller October 30, 2009.

We are Not Likely to See Michigan’s Employment Reach the 5 Million Mark in the

Foreseeable FutureU.S. and Michigan Employment Trends, 1976-2009

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006

Year

Mic

hig

an E

mpl

oym

ent

(000

's)

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

U.S

. Em

ploy

men

t (0

00's

)

Michigan

United States

Source: BLS, Unemployment Statistics

Page 7: Trends in the Michigan Economy: Presentation to the Michigan Climate Action Committee Steven R. Miller October 30, 2009.

Source: BLS, Unemployment Statistics

Unemployment Rates in Michigan and the United States, 1976-2008

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006

Year

Per

cen

t

Michigan

United States

Michigan’s Never Experienced a Recovery from the 2001 Recession

Page 8: Trends in the Michigan Economy: Presentation to the Michigan Climate Action Committee Steven R. Miller October 30, 2009.

Unemployment Rates Vary Across Counties

Legend

2008 Average Unemployment Rate

5.9 - 7.2

7.2 - 9.2

9.2 - 10.6

10.6 - 12.1

12.1 - 14.4

Source: BLS, Local Area Unemployment Statistics

Page 9: Trends in the Michigan Economy: Presentation to the Michigan Climate Action Committee Steven R. Miller October 30, 2009.

Michigan’s Relative Income to the U.S. Declines by 0.3% per Year

Michigan Per-Capita Personal Income as a Percent of U.S., 1969-2007

y = -0.0029x + 1.0584

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004

Year

Per

cent

Source: BEA, Annual Personal Income

Page 10: Trends in the Michigan Economy: Presentation to the Michigan Climate Action Committee Steven R. Miller October 30, 2009.

Michigan is Relatively Manufacturing Intensive

Percent of W&S Employment in Manufacturing

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004

Year

Per

cen

t

U.S.

Michigan

Page 11: Trends in the Michigan Economy: Presentation to the Michigan Climate Action Committee Steven R. Miller October 30, 2009.

Michigan’s Manufacturing Employment Moves in Lockstep With Motor Vehicle

Manufacturing EmploymentManufacturing and Motor Vehicles as a Percent of

Gross State Product for Michigan, 1963-2007

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003

Year

Per

cen

t

Manufacturing

Motor Vehicle MFG

Source: BEA, REIS

Page 12: Trends in the Michigan Economy: Presentation to the Michigan Climate Action Committee Steven R. Miller October 30, 2009.

Despite Shedding 250 Thousand Manufacturing Jobs, Michigan is Relatively

Dependent on Manufacturing

Source: BEA, REIS

Manufacturing as a Percent of Domestic Product for Michigan and the United States 1963-2007

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003

Year

Per

cen

t

United States

Michigan

Page 13: Trends in the Michigan Economy: Presentation to the Michigan Climate Action Committee Steven R. Miller October 30, 2009.

In Rural Counties, Michigan’s Manufacturing Employment Resembles

the U.S.Percent of Local Employment in Manufacturing for

Rural Counties, 1969-2007

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005

Year

Per

cen

t

U.S. Non-Metro

MI Non-Metro

Page 14: Trends in the Michigan Economy: Presentation to the Michigan Climate Action Committee Steven R. Miller October 30, 2009.

Manufacturing Employment is Shifting to Rural Counties

Percent of State or Federal Manufacturing Employment in Rural Counties

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005

Year

Per

cen

t

U.S. Non-Metro

MI Non-Metro

Page 15: Trends in the Michigan Economy: Presentation to the Michigan Climate Action Committee Steven R. Miller October 30, 2009.

Michigan Electricity Prices are Consistent with U.S. Prices

Michigan and United States Electricity Rates by Use, 1990-2007

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005

Year

Ave

rage

Ret

ail P

rice

s (c

ents

/KW

h)

United States ResidentialMichigan ResidentialUnited States CommercialMichigan CommercialUnited States IndustrialMichigan Industrial

Source: U.S. Department of Energy, EIA

Page 16: Trends in the Michigan Economy: Presentation to the Michigan Climate Action Committee Steven R. Miller October 30, 2009.

Michigan Industrial Use Reflects Accelerated Declines in MFG Activity

Relative to the Nation

Source: U.S. Department of Energy, EIA

Growth in Retail Sales of Electricity in Michigan and United States by Use, 1990-2007

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

Year

Per

cen

t G

row

th f

rom

199

0

United States ResidentialUnited States CommercialUnited States IndustrialMichigan ResidentialMichigan CommercialMichigan Industrial

Page 17: Trends in the Michigan Economy: Presentation to the Michigan Climate Action Committee Steven R. Miller October 30, 2009.

Michigan is Missing Population Growth in Key Age Groups

Michigan and United States Population Growth for Selected Age Groups, 2002-2008

-15%-10%

-5%0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%

Under 5Years

5 to 13Years

14 to 17Years

18 to 24Years

16Years +

18Years +

15 to 44Years

65Years +

85Years +

Age Group

Per

cen

t C

han

ge

Michigan

United States

Source: Census

Page 18: Trends in the Michigan Economy: Presentation to the Michigan Climate Action Committee Steven R. Miller October 30, 2009.

Not All Counties Are Experiencing Population Declines

Legend

-12.78 - -7.64

-7.63 - -2.34

-2.33 - 1.33

1.34 - 5.41

5.42 - 16.33

Percent Change,2000-2008

Source: Census

Page 19: Trends in the Michigan Economy: Presentation to the Michigan Climate Action Committee Steven R. Miller October 30, 2009.

Percent Change,2005-2008

-6.38 - -4.92

-4.91 - -2.15

-2.14 - -0.85

-0.84 - 0.71

0.72 - 3.10

Legend

Not All Counties Are Experiencing Population Declines

Source: Census

Page 20: Trends in the Michigan Economy: Presentation to the Michigan Climate Action Committee Steven R. Miller October 30, 2009.

Michigan’s Educational Attainment Lags the Nation

Percentage of Population Aged 25 and Over With a Bachelor's Degree in Michigan and the United States, 1977-2007

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

Year

Per

cen

t

United States

Michigan

Source: Census

Page 21: Trends in the Michigan Economy: Presentation to the Michigan Climate Action Committee Steven R. Miller October 30, 2009.

What Does this Mean for the Michigan Economy?

• Michigan will not likely share in the same recovery of the nation.

• Michigan’s population education attainment hinders progress in the Global Economy.

• The continued decline in the dollar may temporarily prop Michigan’s manufacturing sector, but the long-term U.S. and Michigan trend is away from manufacturing.

• The auto sector is likely to experience further declines or anemic growth in the foreseeable future.

Page 22: Trends in the Michigan Economy: Presentation to the Michigan Climate Action Committee Steven R. Miller October 30, 2009.

• PowerPoint presentation can be downloaded at,www.cea.msu.edu

• For further information, contactSteven R. Miller 88 Agriculture Hall Michigan State University East Lansing, MI 48824 (517) 355-2153 [email protected]

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