Trends in self-employment Nick Palmer, Labour Market Statistics ONS Economic Forum 10 July 2014 1.
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Transcript of Trends in self-employment Nick Palmer, Labour Market Statistics ONS Economic Forum 10 July 2014 1.
Trends in self-employment
Nick Palmer, Labour Market Statistics
ONS Economic Forum
10 July 2014
1
Economic Forum 10 July 2014: self-employment
Contents
1.Summary of the recent growth in self-employment – based on headline statistics as published
2.Address some questions and perceptions - using supplementary data from the Labour Force
Survey
2
Economic Forum 10 July 2014: self-employment
Questions related to recent growth in self-employment :
• Post-recession effects or longer-term structural effects ?
• Is it in jobs that drive economic growth ?
• How much of it is part-time/limited hours, (and so low income) ?
• Are people just taking up self-employment in the absence of other opportunities,
• or is this a new generation of young entrepreneurs ?
• To what extent is it more people taking up self-employment and to what extent is it people staying self-employed longer (inflows vs outflows) ?
3
Economic Forum 10 July 2014: self-employment
3,200
3,400
3,600
3,800
4,000
4,200
4,400
4,600
24,500
24,700
24,900
25,100
25,300
25,500
25,700
25,900
Feb-
Apr
200
8
Apr
-Jun
200
8
Jun-
Aug
200
8
Aug
-Oct
200
8
Oct
-Dec
200
8
Dec
-Feb
200
9
Feb-
Apr
200
9
Apr
-Jun
200
9
Jun-
Aug
200
9
Aug
-Oct
200
9
Oct
-Dec
200
9
Dec
-Feb
201
0
Feb-
Apr
201
0
Apr
-Jun
201
0
Jun-
Aug
201
0
Aug
-Oct
201
0
Oct
-Dec
201
0
Dec
-Feb
201
1
Feb-
Apr
201
1
Apr
-Jun
201
1
Jun-
Aug
201
1
Aug
-Oct
201
1
Oct
-Dec
201
1
Dec
-Feb
201
2
Feb-
Apr
201
2
Apr
-Jun
201
2
Jun-
Aug
201
2
Aug
-Oct
201
2
Oct
-Dec
201
2
Dec
-Feb
201
3
Feb-
Apr
201
3
Apr
-Jun
201
3
Jun-
Aug
201
3
Aug
-Oct
201
3
Oct
-Dec
201
3
Dec
-Feb
201
4
Feb-
Apr
201
4
Employment: employees compared with self-employed (000s)
Employees Self employed
4
Economic Forum 10 July 2014: self-employment
-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2008
Q2
2008
Q3
2008
Q4
2009
Q1
2009
Q2
2009
Q3
2009
Q4
2010
Q1
2010
Q2
2010
Q3
2010
Q4
2011
Q1
2011
Q2
2011
Q3
2011
Q4
2012
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Q4
2013
Q1
2013
Q2
2013
Q3
2013
Q4
2014
Q1
Employees and self-employed: changes since Q1 2008 (thousands)
Self-employed
Employees etc
Total employment
5
Economic Forum 10 July 2014: self-employment
0 200 400 600 800 1,000
Construction
Professional, scientific & technical activities
Other services
Wholesale, retail & repair of motor vehicles
Administrative & support services
Human health & social work activities
Transport & storage
Agriculture, forestry, fishing, mining, …
Education
Manufacturing
Information & communication
Accommodation and food services
Financial & insurance activities
Real estate activities
Public admin & defence; social security
Self-employed by industry (LFS), thousands
Jan-Mar 2014
Jan-Mar 2013
6
Economic Forum 10 July 2014: self-employment
-50 -25 0 25 50 75 100
Construction
Professional, scientific & technical activities
Other services
Agriculture, forestry, fishing, mining, energy & water
Education
Wholesale, retail & repair of motor vehicles
Administrative & support services
Financial & insurance activities
Transport & storage
Real estate activities
Human health & social work activities
Public admin & defence; social security
Manufacturing
Accommodation and food services
Information & communication
Self-employed by industry (LFS), thousands
Change Q1 2013 to Q1 2014
Change Q1 2008 to Q1 2013
7
Economic Forum 10 July 2014: self-employment
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200
Professionals
Craft and related trades workers
Managers
Service and sales workers
Technicians and associate professionals
Elementary occupations
Plant and machine operators, and assemblers
Skilled agricultural, forestry and fishery workers
Clerical support workers
Self-employed by main occupation group (thousands)
2014Q1
2013Q1
8
Economic Forum 10 July 2014: self-employment
9
Economic Forum 10 July 2014: self-employment
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
16-24 25-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Employees and Self-employed: age distributions (%), Jan-Mar 2014
Employees Self-Employed
10
Economic Forum 10 July 2014: self-employment
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
16-24 25-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Self-employed: age distributions (%), Jan-Mar 2008 and Jan-Mar 2014
2008 2014
11
Economic Forum 10 July 2014: self-employment
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
16-24 25-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Employees: age distributions (%), Jan-Mar 2008 and Jan-Mar 2014
2008 2014
12
Economic Forum 10 July 2014: self-employment
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Less than 3 months
3 months but less than 6
6 months but less than 12
1 year but less than 2
2 years but less than 5
5 years but less than 10
10 years but less than 20
20 years or more
Employees and Self-employed by length of time with current employer/self-employed, % distribution, Jan-Mar 2014
Employees Self-employed
13
Economic Forum 10 July 2014: self-employment
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Less than 3 months
3 months but less than 6
6 months but less than 12
1 year but less than 2
2 years but less than 5
5 years but less than 10
10 years but less than 20
20 years or more
Self-employed by length of time self-employed, thousands
Jan-Mar 2012 Jan-Mar 2013 Jan-Mar 2014
14
Economic Forum 10 July 2014: self-employment
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Less than 6 Hours 6 up to 15 hours 16 up to 30 hours 31 up to 45 hours Over 45 hours
Usual weekly hours: % distribution, self-employed compared with employees, Jan-Mar 2014
Employees Self-employed
15
Economic Forum 10 July 2014: self-employment
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
Jan-Mar 2007 Jan-Mar 2008 Jan-Mar 2009 Jan-Mar 2010 Jan-Mar 2011 Jan-Mar 2012 Jan-Mar 2013 Jan-Mar 2014
Usual weekly hours: self-employed
31 up to 45 hours
Over 45 hours
16 up to 30 hours
6 up to 15 hours
Less than 6 Hours
16
Economic Forum 10 July 2014: self-employment
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
2007Q1 2007Q4 2008Q3 2009Q2 2010Q1 2010Q4 2011Q3 2012Q2 2013Q1 2013Q4
Self-employed by whether has employees or not,Q1 2007 to Q1 2014 (thousands)
Total self-employed
Self-employed persons without employees (own-account workers)
Self-employed persons with employees (employers)
17
Economic Forum 10 July 2014: self-employment
Summary/Conclusions
Recent strong growth in self-employment:
• reflects a mixture of post-recession effects and longer-term structural changes
•broadly based in terms of industries/occupations and working patterns
•partly reflects ageing workforce generally • and older profile when compared with employees
•mostly among the longer established / little evidence of increase in “stop-gaps”
•dominated by long-term self-employed – implying lower outflows
•“entrepreneurship“/business growth: continues to be just a small factor
18
Self-employment income
• Mixed income = National Accounts measure of the income of unincorporated enterprises owned by members of households – part of GDP(I).
• Work by the owner or members of their family cannot be distinguished from the owner's profits as entrepreneur.
• Mixed income for the household sector is calculated as profits + rental income – holding gains.
19
Mixed income - compilation
Profits and rental• Rental = income earned through ownership of
buildings • Annual data source is HMRC data based on self-
assessment form – data for 2012/13 will be in BB14• Series extended for later periods using growth in
labour market indicators - LFS self employment, average weekly earnings (AWE)
Holding gains• Gains and losses accrued to owners of assets and
liabilities purely as a result of holding them over time.• Data supplied as part of estimation of gross capital
formation 20
Output of the self-employed
• ONS Interdepartmental Business Register (IDBR) used as sampling frame for the Annual Business Survey
• Register includes all UK businesses registered for either value added tax (VAT) or pay as you earn (PAYE)
• But missing units include self-employed, businesses not registered for VAT/PAYE, businesses without employees, etc.
• To overcome this issue, IDBR under-coverage adjustments are made as part of annual Supply and Use balancing process
• An adjustment factor is applied to estimates of market sector output and intermediate consumption at the UK SIC (2007) class level
• Adjustment factors vary by industry; based on periodic analysis using additional data from HMRC – last formally updated for Blue Book 2006
21
Experimental estimates of productivity of self-employed
• No direct information is collected on the output of employees or the self-employed
• Income approach is used to apportion output, utilising development work from the sectional unit labour costs system. Income weights are defined as (COE+GOS)/GDP(Y) for employees, and one minus this (= mixed income/GDP(Y)) for the self-employed
• These income weights are consistent with those implied in the national accounts, and are applied to indices of GVA to derive synthetic GVA indices for employees and the self-employed separately
• System utilises new hours estimates developed to meet ESA requirements, with split between employees and the self-employed
• Estimates are non-seasonally adjusted, and presented as four-quarter moving averages, based on 2010=100
22
Economic Forum 10 July 2014: self-employment
23
Productivity of Employees and Self-Employed4 Quarter Moving Average
Economic Forum 10 July 2014: self-employment
24
Productivity of Employees and Self-Employed4 Quarter Moving Average
Economic Forum 10 July 2014: self-employment
25
Productivity of Employees and Self-Employed - Construction4 Quarter Moving Average
Email: [email protected]: @ONS
#ONSeconomy
Website: ons.gov.uk/ons/about-ons/get-involved/events/events/economic-forum/index.html
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