Trends in Residential Energy Consumption in the EU and Assessment of the Impact of Energy Efficiency Policies

Paolo BertoldiEuropean Commission, JRC

Directorate Energy, Transport and Climate

EEDAL 201713 September 2017

Introduction

The presentation covers:

• The EU energy efficiency policies recently adopted that influence energy consumption.

• The energy consumption trends in the EU-28 for the residential sector.

Factors Influencing Energy Consumption

These factors have been analysed in the report as they have an impact on energy consumption:

Economic activity (GDP or value added ); Population; Weather conditions (actual heating and cooling degree days); Energy prices; Energy efficiency policies; Autonomous technological developments (e.g. LED lighting); Structural changes;

Indicators help to identify the impact of individual factors (e.g. GDP or industrial production for a specific good).

Factors Influencing Residential Energy Consumption

In addition to the previous factors, for residential consumption it is also important to investigate:

• Number of dwellings;

• Average persons per dwelling;

• Average size of the dwelling;

• Penetration of equipment;

• Usage of equipment;

• Comfort levels (e.g. Indoor temperature);

Introduction – EU targets

• The EU agreed in 2007 on energy and climate targets for 2020:

• Reduction of CO2 emissions by 20% compared to 1990.• Renewable energy sources to supply 20% of eenrgy consumption.• Reduction in the EU primary energy consumption by 20%.

• The EE target correspond to a reduction of 368 Mtoe and consumption levels of 1474 Mtoe in 2020 compared to 2007 primary energy consumption projections of 1842 Mtoe in 2020.

• More recently EU leaders adopted in October 2014 the 2030 climate and energy framework, which sets three key targets for the year 2030:

• At least 40% cuts in greenhouse gas emissions (from 1990 levels)• At least 27% share for renewable energy• At least 27% improvement in energy efficiency.

Introduction - EED

• The European Council in 2011 concluded that present trends were not on track and more efforts were needed to deliver its target.

• To help the EU reach its target, the Energy Efficiency Directive (EED) was adopted in 2012, establishing a set of binding measures in various sectors of the economy at national level.

• The provisions of the EED require that all EU Member States set national indicative targets and implement policy measures that improve energy efficiency at all stages of the energy chain, including measures taken to improve the efficiency of the supply sector.

Introduction - NEEAPs

• In compliance with the EED’s requirements, Member States presented the progress and efforts made in the so-called National Energy Efficiency Action Plans (NEEAPs).

• In 2014, the first NEEAP reporting requirements under the EED.

• The NEEAPs have provided a strategic platform for Member States to set energy efficiency targets, outline planned or implemented end-use and supply level measures and evaluate the energy savings resulting from the implementation of these measures.

• NEEAPs were already required under the Energy Service Directive (2006)

Timeline of National Energy Efficiency Actions Plans under the ESD and EED

Structure of National Energy Efficiency Action Plans according to the template proposed by the European

Commission

Introduction Eco-Design

• The Eco-design Directive introduces common EU minimum efficiency standards (MEPS) energy for related products.

• MEPS have been adopted for residential appliances, lamps, consumer electronics, ICT equipment, boilers, air conditioners, etc.

• MEPS are complemented by mandatory energy labelling as established in the Energy Labelling Directive. Energy labelling of residential equipment was first introduced in 1992, with the first energy label introduced in 1994 for refrigerators. Now most of the residential equipment is energy labelled.

• The combination of Eco-design and energy labelling has been successful in substantially improving energy efficiency of residential equipment and this result in energy savings compared to a business as usual

Market distribution by energy label classes and by products groups (comparison 2011 and 2014). Source: GfK Retail and Technology Panel

Example of Product Efficiency Analysis

Introduction - EPBD

• The main EU policy for buildings is the Energy Performance of Building Directive (EPBD) introduced in 2002 and then recast in 2010.

• Under this Directive, Member States shall implement at national level a set of measures for:

• energy performance certificates are included in all advertisements for the sale or rental

of buildings;

• All new buildings must be nearly zero-energy buildings by 31 December 2020 (new

buildings occupied and owned by public authorities by 31 December 2018);

• minimum energy performance requirements for new buildings, for the major

renovation of buildings and for the replacement or retrofit of building elements (i.e.

heating and cooling systems, roofs, walls, etc.);

• national financial incentives to improve the energy efficiency of buildings.

EU 2020 target at 1483 Mtoe (gap of 1.5%)

Primary Energy Consumption Trends

1,730

1,839

1,804

1,700

1,764

1,699

1,608

1,627

1,600

1,650

1,700

1,750

1,800

1,850

1,900

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Ener

gy

Con

sum

pti

on (

Mto

e)

Gross Inland Consumption in the EU-28

EU 2020 target at 1,086 Mtoe (gap of – 2.0%)

Final Energy Consumption

1,133

1,145

1,194

1,175

1,181

1,115

1,164

1,107

1,062

1,084

1,050

1,070

1,090

1,110

1,130

1,150

1,170

1,190

1,210

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Ener

gy

Con

sum

pti

on (

Mto

e)

Final Energy Consumption, EU-28

Strong decrease in Industry (-17.6 %), increase only in Services (+16.5%)

Final Energy Consumption Trends per Sector

333

275

345359

291275

121

147

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Ener

gy

Con

sum

pti

on (

Mto

e)

Final Energy Consumption in the EU-28

Industry Transport Residential Services

Electricity consumption in residential sector has stabilised, strong increase in services, however it has also recently stabilised

Electricity Consumption Trends per Sector

1,061 996

718795

635

835

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Elec

tric

al E

ner

gy

(TW

h)

Electricity consumption per sector in the EU-28

Industry Residential Services

Electricity Consumption

2,5282,741

2,2292,370

300371

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Elec

tric

al e

ner

gy

(TW

h)

Electricity consumption in the EU-28

EU-28 EU-15 NMS-13

Gas consumption in industry and residential has decreased, while increased in services, but it has stabilised

Gas Electricity Consumption Trends per Sector

113

87

109 97

34

45

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Gas

Con

sum

pti

on (

Mto

e)

Gas Consumption per sector in the EU-28

Industry Residential Services

Gas Electricity Consumption Trends

268

236

231

204

36 32

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Ener

gy

(Mto

e)

Final gas consumption trends in the EU-28

EU-28 EU-15 NMS-13

Residential Energy Consumption

Residential consumption has decreased, by 9 % in the period 2000-2015

291 275

242 225

50 50

050

100150200250300350

Ener

gy

(Mto

e)

Final residential energy consumption in the EU-28

EU-28 EU-15 NMS-13

Residential Energy Consumption Trends in MSs

Residential consumption has decreased, by 9 % in the period 2000-2015

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

EU28 MT PT BG ES SK RO CY EL LT PL IT SI LV UK NL FR HR IE HU CZ EE DE AT BE SE DK LU FI

Ener

gy

per

per

son

(to

e p

er c

apit

a)

Final residential energy per capita consumption in the EU-28

2005 2010 2015

Fuels in the Residential Sector

24.9%

16.0%

7.7%

35.4%

12.6%

3.4%2015

Electrical energy Renewable Energies Derived Heat Gas Total Petroleum Products Solid Fuels

21.2%

10.3%

8.0%37.4%

19.7%

3.5%2000

Electrical energy Renewable Energies Derived Heat Gas Total Petroleum Products Solid Fuels

Change in Population

487.3508.5

377.6

403.8

109.7 104.7

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Mill

ion

peo

ple

Population in the EU-28

EU-28 EU-15 NMS-13

GDP Trends

19,641

27,40024,107

31,928

4,282

10,720

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Euro

s p

er c

apit

a

Gross Domestic Product per capita at current market pricesin the EU-28

EU-28 EU-15 NMS-13

5.9

27.4

87.6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

BG RO HR HU PL LV LT SK CZ EE EL PT SI MT CY ES IT EU28 FR UK BE DE FI AT NL IE SE DK LU

Thou

san

d Eu

ros

GDP per capita at current market prices in the EU-28, year 2014

Decrease in energy intensity of -36%, i.e. 2.5% pa

Primary Energy Intensity

3.6

3.7

3.20.15

0.14

0.12

0.1

0.11

0.12

0.13

0.14

0.15

0.16

0.17

0.18

0.19

0.2

2.9

3

3.1

3.2

3.3

3.4

3.5

3.6

3.7

3.8

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Ener

gy

Inte

nsi

ty (

toe/

thou

san

d Eu

ro)

Ener

gy

per

Cap

ita

(toe

/cap

)

Energy Indicators for Total Primary Energy Supply, EU-28

Energy per capita Energy Intensity

Energy Prices

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

EU28 DK DE IE IT ES PT BE UK AT NL CY SE EL LU FR LV SI FI SK PL CZ HR RO EE MT LT HU BG

Cos

t (€

/kW

h)

Electricity Prices for Household Consumers in the EU-28, 2015

Basic Price Other taxes VAT

0.000.020.040.060.080.100.12

SE PT ES IT DK NL AT FR EL IE DE UK SI BE CZ PL SK LV LU HR BG LT EE HU RO

Cos

t (€

/kW

h)

Gas Prices for Household Consumers in the EU-28, 2015Basic Price Other taxes VAT

Dwellings data per MSs - 1

2.0

2.3

2.8

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

DE SE DK FI EE FR LT NL AT EU28 CZ IT HU UK BE BG EL LV LU SI ES PT IE CY MT PL RO SK HR

Average number of people per household in the EU-28, year 2014

44.6

95.9

141.4

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

RO LV LT EE BG PL HU CZ SI IE HR SK EL FI FR IT DE EU28 ES AT SE PT NL DK BE LU CY

Sq

uar

e m

eter

s

Average size of dwellings for countries with available data in the EU-28, year 2012

Dwellings data per MSs - 2

0.48

1.21

2.13

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

MT PT BG ES EL RO CY SK HU LT IT NL SI EU28 CZ UK DE FR PL HR SE LV AT IE EE BE DK FI LU

Fin

al e

ner

gy

per

dw

ellin

g (t

oe/d

w)

Final residential energy consumption per dwellingin the EU-28, year 2014

Energy per floor area and total number of dwellings

195.1

216.8

190

195

200

205

210

215

220

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Nu

mb

er o

f h

ouse

hol

ds(t

hou

san

d u

nit

s)

Number of private households in the EU-28

20.1

15.884.5

89.7

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Ave

rag

e si

ze o

f fl

oor

Ener

gy

per

sq

uar

e m

eter

Energy per square meter Floor Average (m2)

HDD and Consumption per m2

EUAT

BG

HR

CY

CZ

DK

EE

FI

FR

DE

EL

HU

IE

IT

LV

LT

NL

PL

PT

RO

SK

SI

ES

SE

UK

y = 0.0032x + 6.5442R² = 0.4619

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000

koe/

m2

HDD

Residential energy per capita, normalized by HDD, GDP per capita and m2 per capita

1.6

1.8

2

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3

3.2

3.4

3.6

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

(koe

· ca

p)

/ (H

DD

· G

DP

· m

2)

· 1

0-7

Conclusions

• The paper analyzes the residential consumption in the EU in 2000-2014.

• The analyses provides preliminary indications regarding the impact of policies for energy efficiency and energy savings in the EU.

• The results show that EU inland gross energy consumption, primary energy consumption and final energy consumption have declined since 2000 by 7.15%, 6.76% and 6.32% respectively.

• The largest decline of final energy has been registered in the industry sector (-17.62%), in the residential sector there has been a remarkable decrease (-9.52%), in the transport sector there has been a slight increase (+2.21%) and the tertiary sector has grown the most (+16.48%).

• Energy indicators such as energy intensity of final energy (by 35.82%) and final energy per capita (by 10.02%) have been reduced over the analyzed period.

Conclusions

• The effect of GDP per capita and HDD; residential consumption per capita, for HDD, GDP per capita and square meters all show similar results: the EU has registered a very gradual decline in the residential energy consumption from 2000 onwards

• The final residential electricity consumption has grown (+9.4%) in the EU-28 during the 15-years period 2000-2014. It has peaked in 2006.

• The final residential gas consumption has dropped (-15.3%) between 2000 and 2014.

• There is a positive correlation between the final energy consumption and the Heating Degree Days. mNevertheless, correlation does not always mean causation as there are multiple affecting factors such as building characteristics (i.e. building envelope, insulation level, location, etc.) or social and cultural reasons (lifestyle, habits, etc.) among others.

• In the EU, there has been observed a lowering trend in the number of persons per household over the analyzed period, which might lead to future increase of the residential energy consumption per capita values.

Conclusions

• Energy consumption per household may be used a reference parameter to compare and analyze the energy consumption trends at residential level., together with energy per square meter.

• Energy prices are rising in the European Union. Electricity has grown by 33% (up to EUR 0.2078/kWh) and gas by 29.5% (up to EUR 0.0514/kWh) from the second semester 2008 to first semester 2015.

• This paper does not attribute a specific share of the energy reduction achieved to energy efficiency policies, for this more sophisticated methods must be used (decomposition analysis or econometric modelling).

• However it shows that even when residential energy consumption is normalized for the most important drivers described in the paper, the energy consumption is declining, thus implying that energy efficiency policy together with technological developments must have contributed to these trends.

• Finally the fact that the EU almost reached in 2014 its 2020 energy efficiency targets does not allow to reduce the policy effort at EU and MSs level in the remaining years, but policies shall be continued and reinforced, if we want to make sure that the 2020 and 2030 targets will be reached in 2020 and 2030 respectively

Thank you!

Paolo.BERTOLDI@ec.europa.eu+390332789299

Joint Research Centre (JRC)