Trends in global trade · Country trade view Spain · November 2015 3 Economic profile Sources:...

Country trade view SpainTrends in global trade

ECD014 1115 CTV Spain_v4.indd 1ECD014 1115 CTV Spain_v4.indd 1 30-11-15 09:4130-11-15 09:41

Country trade view Spain · November 2015 2

Summary

• Spain is a significant player in international trade. In 2014 it was the sixteenth-largest importer and the eighteenth-largest exporter. Spain maintains a trade-to-GDP ratio of 47.6% and can therefore be considered relatively closed for a member of the euro area.1

• The largest import flows are other manufactured goods, chemicals, and fuels. The largest export product groups are road vehicles and transport equipment, other manufactured goods and basic food.2

1 Based on data from the IMF and UNCTAD

2 Based on data from Oxford Economics

• The majority of Spanish trade is with fellow Eurozone members. Indeed, the most important origins of imports are Germany, France and Italy. Spain’s most important export destination is by far its northern neighbour France. Second and third are Germany and Italy, respectively.2

• If we look at the largest single-product flows on a bilateral basis, road vehicles and transport equipment is both the biggest outward flow (to France) and inward flow (from Germany).2

About International Trade Research at INGING International Trade Research aims to help ING’s (inter)national clients develop their knowledge and capabilities for doing business across borders, and contribute to the public debate on internationalisation. We do this by providing insights on the current and future economic trends and international trade developments worldwide.



Economic profile

Sources: ING, IMF World Economic Outlook, UNCTAD, National Statistical

Services, Rating Agencies

Spain trade profile: destinations and origins of goods, % of total, 2014

2014-2015

Competitiveness rank WEF 33/140

Ease of doing business rank 33/189

Credit rating

S&P BBB+ (Stable outlook)

Moody’s Baa2 (Positive outlook)

Fitch BBB+ (Stable outlook)

Economy

Population

Other indicators

2015 2016 2017

GDP growth (Real) 3.2% 2.7% 2.3%

GDP nominal (bn, USD) 1,221.4 1,265.1 1,318.8

GDP per capita (USD) 26,326.9 27,309.3 28,509.1

Exchange rate Yen/USD e.o.p. 1.05 1.02 1.10

Inflation -0.2% 0.8% 1.1%

GDP composition by sector 2014

Agriculture 3.2%

Industry 25.4%

Services 71.4%

2015

Population (mln) 46.4

Unemployment rate 21.2%

North AmericaExport 6.4%Import 6.2%

South and CentralAmerica

Export 5.4%Import 6.5%

AfricaExport 6.8%

Import 10.6%

EUExport 49.9%Import 42.9%

CISExport 1.4%Import 3.6%

AsiaExport 11.5%Import 19.4%

OceaniaExport 0.8%Import 0.3%

Agriculture & raw materialsExports $ 3.3Imports $ 3.6

Basic foodExports $ 44.8 Imports $ 33.9

Beverages & tobaccoExports $ 5.0Imports $ 3.9

Office, telecom & electrical equipmentExports $ 14.4Imports $ 29.9

ChemicalsExports $ 31.4Imports $ 33.3

FuelsExports $ 18.3Imports $ 73.5

Industrial machineryExports $ 25.6Imports $ 24.2

Ores & metalsExports $ 10.9Imports $ 13.2

Other manufactured goodsExports $ 56.0Imports $ 54.2

Other productsExports $ 0.7Imports $ 1.5

PharmaceuticalsExports $ 14.2Imports $ 15.8

Road vehicles & transport equipmentExports $ 54.9Imports $ 42.0

TextilesExports $ 11.2Imports $ 22.3

Exports (USD bn) 318.6Imports (USD bn) 351.0 Trade balance (USD bn) -32.3Exports (% of GDP) 47.6%

Product group amounts in USD bn, and for the 32 partner countries distinguished

Sources: ING, IMF World Economic Outlook, UNCTAD, national sources



United States

South America

MENA

Eurozone

Central and Eastern Europe

Commonwealth ofIndependent States

Developing Asia

Other advancedeconomies*

0.91.8 1.6

2014 2015 2016

2.4 2.52.5

2014 2015 2016

2.7 2.63.8

2014 2015 2016

2.8 2.7 3.1

2014 2015 2016

1.3 0.51.7

2014 2015 2016

2.8 2.9 2.9

2014 2015 2016

1.43.2 2.7

2014 2015 2016

Spain

1.0-2.2

1.2

2014

2015

2016

6.8 6.6 6.3

2014 2015 2016

Expected real GDP growth

* Australia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Hong Kong SAR, Iceland, Israel, Korea, New Zealand, Norway, San Marino, Singapore, Sweden, Switzerland, and Taiwan

Province of China.

Source: ING Forecasts October 2015, IMF World Economic Outlook 2015

The Spanish economy has returned to growth.

Spain return to growth in 2014 with a 1.4% growth rate of GDP. This upturn is expected to persist in 2015 (+3.2%) and 2016 (+2.7%). These figures exceed the Eurozone average for both 2015 (1.8%) and 2016 (1.6%) and also surpass the growth rate projected for the US (2.5% and 2.5%).



Trade forecasts

Trade is expected to grow steadily.

The average growth rate of exports between 2014 and 2019 is 2.7%, while imports are expected to grow 2.1% annually. Spain currently has a trade deficit of USD32bn. This is expected to remain fairly steady if energy prices remain low.

* Compound Annual Growth Rate

Source: Oxford Economics. Totals are lower than UNCTAD figures for realized years because Oxford totals are only made up of those product groups that are part of

the list of product groups specified by destination and product.

Total imports, USD bn Total exports, USD bn

Spain 2009 2014 2019f

World ranking 13 16 17

CAGR* 2014-2019 2.1%

Spain 2009 2014 2019f

World ranking 16 18 17

CAGR 2014-2018 2.7%

2019f20142009

294

355393

2019f20142009

226

302345



Demand for products: imports by product group

Imports growing across the board.

The largest import flows are other manufactured good (USD44bn), chemicals (USD28bn), and because Spain imports more than 70% of its primary energy needs, fuels (USD28bn). The highest growth is expected in industrial machinery (+4.9% annually), road vehicles and transport equipment (+4.1%) and chemicals (+4.0%). We do not expect an import contraction for any of the product groups in the coming years.

Source: Oxford Economics. Sector aggregates are lmited to the summation of the 33 countries for which bilateral data is available

Agriculture & raw materials

Beverages & tobacco

Other products

Ores & metals

Pharmaceuticals

Textiles

Industrial machinery

Office, telecom & electrical equipment

Basic food

Road vehicles & transport equipment

Fuels

Chemicals

Other manufactured goods38.8 43.9 49.8

20.7

14.9

24.7

18.5

22.7

20.427.5

13.8

14.113.0

6.2 8.4

7.2

2.9

1.9

34.128.0

27.531.5

25.030.5

24.1 28.0

27.123.1

21.7

17.518.8

15.4

9.4

7.57.0

2.72.8

2.32.7

2009 2014 2019

Imports by product groups, 2009, 2014 and 2019, USD bn



Demand for products: origins of imports

Spain’s biggest import partners are Germany (USD43bn), France (USD40bn) and Italy (USD25bn).

Total imports are expected to grow annually by 2.1% until 2019. Imports from the east are likely to increase the most. The top five consists of Egypt (+8.1%), Turkey (+7.9%), the United Arab Emirates (+7.4), Indonesia (+7.0%) and Vietnam (+6.9%). Also noteworthy is the forecasted 5.3% annual growth of imports from China.

In terms of product groups by country, the largest inflow is of Road vehicles & transport equipment from Germany (USD8bn), other manufactured goods from Germany (USD8bn) and other manufactured goods from France (USD8bn). Noteworthy are a large expected growth of fuels from Mexico (+5.5% annually), other manufactured goods from China (+5.3%) and road vehicles and transport equipment from France (+4.4%).

Source: Oxford Economics. Sector aggregates are lmited to the summation of the 33 countries of which bilateral data is available.

Top 10 largest import flows by product and country of originSpain

Import product Origin import Value, USD bn, 2014 Value, USD bn, 2019 Exp. ann. growth 2014-2019

Road vehicles & transport equipment Germany 8.3 9.1 2.0%

Other manufactured goods Germany 8.1 8.6 1.3%

Other manufactured goods France 7.8 8.2 1.0%

Other manufactured goods China 7.1 9.1 5.3%

Other manufactured goods Italy 6.9 7.0 0.2%

Fuels Mexico 6.8 8.9 5.5%

Road vehicles & transport equipment France 6.6 8.2 4.4%

Industrial machinery Germany 6.4 7.9 4.2%

Basic food France 5.7 5.9 0.8%

Textiles China 5.3 6.3 3.4%

Main origins of imports, 2009, 2014 and 2019, USD bn

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

RussianFederation

MexicoUSABelgiumUnitedKingdom

NetherlandsChinaItalyFranceGermany

2009 2014 2019



Exports: key product groups

Spain’s exports are re-balancing.

The largest export product groups are road vehicles and transport equipment (USD50bn), other manufactured goods (USD38bn) and basic food (USD32bn). Spain’s exports are expected to shift further towards the industry sectors. Indeed, Spain is expected to export more road vehicles and transport equipment, industrial machinery and chemicals while it will reduce its exports of fuels, textiles and basic food.

Source: Oxford Economics. Sector aggregates are lmited to the summation of the 33 countries of which bilateral data is available.

Agriculture & raw materials

Beverages & tobacco

Other products

Ores & metals

Pharmaceuticals

Textiles

Fuels

Office, telecom & electrical equipment

Industrial machinery

Chemicals

Basic food

Other manufactured goods

Road vehicles & transport equipment

2009 2014 2019

39.358.3

38.0

23.6

14.0

13.8

14.58.4 11.6

7.1

8.3

4.9

2.4

2.7

1.7

49.6

27.740.6

32.130.8

22.025.5

18.1

21.7

7.3 11.14.0

9.710.8

10.411.0

6.96.9

4.65.3

3.73.6

2.82.6

Key product groups, 2009, 2014 and 2019, USD bn



Exports: key destination markets

The eurozone is a crucial export destination.

Spain’s most important export destination is by far its northern neighbour France (USD50bn). Second and third are fellow Eurozone members Germany (USD32bn) and Italy (USD22bn). As mentioned earlier, we expect exports to grow by an average of 2.7% annually until 2019. The largest growers are overseas markets the United Arab Emirates (+11.1% annually), Vietnam (+10.5%) and Australia (+8.0%). Destinations losing importance are Russia (-5.2%), Japan (-2.2%) and the Netherlands (-1.9%). Notably, the biggest destination France is also expected to receive 1.0% less goods from Spain annually in the coming years. Road vehicles and transport equipment to France is the largest single-sector bilateral export flow (USD14bn), the second is road vehicles and transport equipment to Germany (USD11bn) and the third is other manufactured goods to France (USD10bn).

Source: Oxford Economics. Sector aggregates are lmited to the summation of the 33 countries for which bilateral data is available.

Top 10 largest export flows by product and destination countrySpain

Export product category Destination Value, USD bn, 2014 Value, USD bn, 2019 Exp. ann. growth 2014-2019

Road vehicles & transport equipment France 14.1 14.6 0.62%

Road vehicles & transport equipment Germany 10.7 11.9 2.15%

Other manufactured goods France 10.1 9.5 -1.35%

Basic food France 8.3 7.6 -1.71%

Road vehicles & transport equipment United Kingdom 6.1 7.6 4.43%

Basic food Germany 5.5 5.2 -1.15%

Basic food Italy 5.0 4.7 -1.21%

Other manufactured goods Germany 4.4 4.4 -0.24%

Chemicals France 4.0 3.9 -0.25%

Basic food United Kingdom 3.6 3.4 -0.96%

Key destination markets of exports, 2009, 2014 and 2019, USD bn

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

ChinaPolandTurkeyBelgiumNetherlandsUSAUnited KingdomItalyGermanyFrance

2009 2014 2019


ECD0

14 1

115

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Geoffrey MinneEconomist+32 2 547 33 86 [email protected]

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Trends in global trade · Country trade view Spain · November 2015 3 Economic profile Sources:...

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