NPI Emission Estimation Technique Manual for Fugitive Emissions
Trends in Emissions from Energy Sector · • Other sectors • Fugitive Emissions from Fuel...
Transcript of Trends in Emissions from Energy Sector · • Other sectors • Fugitive Emissions from Fuel...
Title of the Presentation
Date
Venue
Trends in Emissions from Energy Sector
Date: September 28, 2017
Venue: New Delhi
Sectoral Break-up & Approach
• Key Sub-sectors in ENERGY• Electricity Generation
• Transport
• Other sectors
• Fugitive Emissions from Fuel Production
• Tier 1: Default (Fuel based)• Quantity of fuel
• Global Average emission factors
• Emissions from combustion
• Tier 2: Country –Specific (Fuel Based)• Quantity of fuel
• Country – specific emission factors
• Emissions from combustion
• GHGs accounted for:• Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
• Methane (CH4)
• Nitrous Oxide (N2O)
National GHG Inventory
Fuel Combustion
Electricity Generation
Utilities
Non-Utilities
Transport
Road
Rail
Aviation
Navigation
Other Sectors
Residential
Commercial
Agriculture and Fishing
Fugitive Emissions from
fuels
Solid Fuels
Oil and Natural Gas
Methodology
The basic equation used in for calculating the GHG emission is:
EmissionsGas = ∑Category Activity data (AD) * Emission Factor (EF)Gas
For example CO2 emissions are estimated as:
CO2 Emissions = Fuel consumption * Net Calorific Value * CO2 emission factor
• Activity data sourced from various Ministry reports
• Emission Factors are default factors from IPCC guidelines and country-specific estimates.
• Other data sets include: Fuel calorific values and liquid and gaseous fuels, density assumptions
Trends in Energy Emissions
CAGR
ENERGY: 5.96%
Electricity Gen: 6.58%
Transport: 6.96%
Others: 2.18%
Fugitive Emissions: 1.05%
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
MtC
O2e
Electricity Generation Transport Others Fugitive
1533
964
Fuel Use
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Solid Fuels Liquid Fuels Gaseous Fuels
Sector wise emissions based on fuel type
• Solid Fuels• Electricity Generation – 95.61%
• Transport – 0.001%
• Others – 23.98%
• Fuel Production – 53.42%
• Liquid Fuels• Electricity Generation –1.14%
• Transport – 90.39%
• Others – 44.21%
• Fuel Production – 0.79%
• Gaseous Fuels• Electricity Generation – 3.25%
• Transport – 9.60%
• Others – 31.80%
• Fuel Production – 45.79%
Electricity Generation
CAGR
Electricity Gen: 6.58%
PEG: 6.2%
Captive: 9.1%
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
MtC
O2e
Uttar Pradesh Maharashtra West Bengal Chhattisgarh Madhya Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh Gujarat Tamil Nadu Odisha Rajasthan
Karnataka Haryana Rest of India
Sub sector States
Public Electricity
Generation
Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh,
Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh
Captive Power Plants Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Karnataka, Odisha,
Uttar Pradesh
12 states contributed to 90% of the emissions from PEG in 2013
Transport
Sub sector States
Road Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh
Railways Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka, Rajasthan
Aviation Delhi, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu
Navigation Maharashtra, Kerala, Gujarat
0
50
100
150
200
250
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
MtC
O2e
Maharashtra Tamil Nadu Uttar Pradesh Karnataka
Gujarat Rajasthan Andhra Pradesh Haryana
Delhi Kerala Rest of India
CAGR
Transport: 6.96%
Road: 9.23%
Railways: 4.63%
Aviation: 7.46%
Navigation: 1.24%
Modal Share in 2013: Road (87%), Railways (4%), Aviation (8%) and Navigation (1%)
Residential, Commercial, Fisheries & Agriculture
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
MtC
O2e
Uttar Pradesh West Bengal Maharashtra Gujarat Tamil Nadu
Rajasthan Andhra Pradesh Karnataka Bihar Madhya Pradesh
Punjab Haryana Kerala Rest of india
Sub sector States
Residential West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra
Commercial Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Tamil Nadu
Agriculture Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana
Fisheries Gujarat, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu
CAGR
Other: 2.18%
Residential: 1%
Commercial: 9%
Agriculture:8%
Fisheries:5%
Share in 2013: Residential (73%), Commercial (6%), Agriculture (18%) and Fisheries (3%)
Fugitive Emissions from Fuel Production
CAGR
Fugitive Emissions: 1.05%
Coal: 0.53%
Oil: 2.63%
Natural Gas: 2.64%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
MtC
O2e
Maharashtra Andhra Pradesh Chhattisgarh Jharkhand
Odisha Madhya Pradesh Rest of India
Sub sector States
Coal Chhattisgarh, Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal, Maharashtra,
Jharkhand
Oil Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Gujarat
Natural Gas Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Assam
Comparison with Official Inventory
Emissions
(MtCO2e)
INCCA
2007CSTEP 2007 % Deviation BUR 2010 CSTEP 2010 % Deviation
Electricity
Generation719 758 5% 820 913 11%
Transport 142 138 -3% 188 190 1%
Others 173 131 -24% 92 138 50%
Fugitive 32 36 13% 49 47 -4%
TOTAL 1066 1063 -0.28% 1149 1288 12%
Deviations
- Fiscal Year to Calendar Year
- Data Gaps in Activity data
- Inclusion of DG sets
- Inclusion of Captive Power
Generation
- Rounding off Error
- Lack of disaggregated data
based on coal mining
Assumptions• Electricity Generation
• Data for the Financial Year (FY) 2011-12 interpolated• Heat rates in captive plants taken to be 5% higher than utilities for each fuel type• Fuel properties for HHS not available, properties for LSHS used
• Transport• Petrol & Diesel demand from PPAC• Average zone share for HSDO consumption in road for select states • Linear Interpolation for missing years
• Others• Linear interpolation applied to calculate the number of Diesel Generator (DG) sets and fuel consumed
in DG sets • DG sets of capacities <75 kW in residential sector • DG sets of capacities between 75 to 800 kW in commercial sector
• Fugitive Emissions• Degree of Gassiness in UG Mines (Deg I, II and III at 33.33%)• Proxy variable’s Performance applied to relevant variables• Leakage rate assumed as 1.65% of NG production
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