TRENDS IN ELECTRIFICATION Transmission.tech 2017 MHEV - … · 2020 2% 2% 5% 13% 2016 2% Natural...
Transcript of TRENDS IN ELECTRIFICATION Transmission.tech 2017 MHEV - … · 2020 2% 2% 5% 13% 2016 2% Natural...
© by FEV – all rights reserved. Confidential – no passing on to third parties
Thomas Hülshorst / Jürgen Ogrzewalla / Christoph Bollig
April 11, 2017
Prepared for
Transmission.tech 2017
TRENDS IN ELECTRIFICATION
MHEV - HEV - PHEV - BEV
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V 1.16
The Future of Mobility!
Connected Electrified
Shared Assisted / Automated
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V 1.16
Hybrid and Electrification
Introduction: Global Fuel economy legislation will become more stringently
Historical performance and targets of CO2 emission limits in different regions
3
Legislation worldwide
requires ambitious targets of
fuel economy improvement
2017 to 2021 a reduction of
CO2 emissions to
130gCO2/km is necessary in
India
Without a massive
electrification in all markets
the 2025 targets of
113gCO2/km cannot be
achieved
Currently electrification share
in India is small, but will
become much importance in
near future. This will also
drive a move to two pedal
vehicles
Source: Improving the conversions
between the various passenger
vehicle fuel economy
The ICCT 2014.12.03
The ICCT paper 2016-26
Transmission. tech
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V 1.16
FEV developed a unique approach covering technology push and market
pull simulation to achieve best-in-class fleet performance strategies
Trends for Electrification
FEV COMPREHENSIVE FLEET PERFORMANCE STRATEGY APPROACH
TECHNOLOGY PUSH MARKET PULL
Description of powertrain technology
strategy followed by OEMs and
evaluation of respective impact on fuel
economy
Simulation based forecast on fuel
economy improvement for different
technology strategies and powertrain
architectures
Analysis of consumers within vehicle
markets and their specific needs and
factors with impact on their utility based
on vehicle specifications and exogenous
factors
Multi-agent modelling for customer
buying decision modelling to evaluate
market shares of electrified powertrains
Sales CO2 / $
Sales CO2 / $
2015
2025
Source: FEV
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V 1.16
47%
6%
74%
2030
5% 3%
10%
21%
8%
2025
0% 2% 2% 2% 5%
57%
6%
74%
2030
3% 1%
24%
7% 2%
2025
2% 2% 2% 5%
For European market FEV expects a major shift towards plug-in vehicles –
distribution mainly depending on customer preferences
Trends for Electrification
FUTURE POWERTRAIN SCENARIOS PASSENGER CAR
*: normalized to NEDC
e-fuels: fuels produced by electricity from renewable energy
Source: FEV
Scenario 1: “BEV break-through”
8%
13%
13%
51%
33%
6%
39%
85%
78%
18%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
2030
3% 1%
19%
7%
2025
5%
3%
2020
2% 2%
2% 5%
2016
2% 2%
Natural gas and e-fuels
Fuel Cell
Battery Electric
Plug-In Hybrid
Full Hybrid
Mild Hybrid
Stop-Start & 12V Energy Mgmt
ICE only
Scenario 2: “PHEV” FEV Scenario “Most likely”
25%
w/o ICE 13%
w/o ICE
89%
electrified
drives
91%
electrified
drives
20%
w/o ICE
91%
electrified
drives
<65 g/km* <75 g/km* <95 g/km* <65 g/km* <65 g/km* CO2 fleet
emission:
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V 1.16
Electrification technology roadmap (Passenger cars) Europe
Trends for Electrification
ELECTRIFICATION TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP (PASSENGER CARS)
1: Under review; 2: FEV Scenario
Source: FEV
2030 2015 2025 2020
Euro 6 Post Euro 62
12 V Micro Hybrid
48 V Mild Hybrid
HV Mild Hybrid
Full Hybrid
Plugin Hybrid
Battery electric vehicle
Battery energy density &
cell technology (BEV)
Charging technology
AGM, Enhanced Flow Battery,
(advanced) Stop/Start, IGM*
48 V BSG (small vehicle segments) ISG for lager
segments ; comfort , e-charging
ISG w/ Li-Ion battery
Today most sold xEV
Range ≥ 50km; predictive energy optimization
(e. g. navigation and ACC based)
BEV (niche) > 150km
w/ or w/o REX
450 V, conductive charging; Fast
charging with 50 to 120kW
12 V + 12 V (e. g. Li-Ion) w/ 12 V e-charger
(esp. for smaller vehicle segments)
48 V as base hybridization esp. for smaller vehicles
Range ≥ 70-80 km; predictive energy optimization (connected vehicle based)
Wider market introduction
≥ 250km w/o REX (niche w/ REX)
Inductive charging
12 V Li-Ion board net
48 V
board net
Range ≥ 350 km w/o REX;
fast charging capabilities
fast charging (>200 kW @ 800 V) capabilities for BEV
80 % SOC < 15 min
Current technology
focus
Next generation
technology focus
Future
technology focus
130 95 751
130
Fleet Average
g/km CO2 limit
‘14 ‘16 ‘17 ‘18 ‘19 ‘21 ‘22 ‘23 ‘24 ‘26 ‘27 ‘28 ‘29
Fuel Cell First market introduction
Will presumably be replaced by 48V Mild Hybrid
Wider market introduction not before 2030
Dedicated hybrid Transmission and simplified engines
up to 250 Wh/kg (Li-Ion) 300 – 350 Wh/kg (Li-Ion) Solid state technology (>350 Wh/kg);
[Li-S, Li-Air > 2030]
* Intelligent generator
management
2
3
4
Electrification
5
1
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Demands on hybrid architectures: Trade-off between contrary targets
prevents the „one-for-all“ Hybrid solution.
Transmission. tech
Micro / Mild Hybrid
12V optimization
48V mild hybrid
High vehicle volume
Plug-in Hybrid / EV
Long range e-Drive
Electric-typical drivability
Small vehicle volume, but large „credit
leverage“
„Just save fuel!“
„Excite the
customer!“
Drivers
Low-cost full hybrid
Simplified cost-reduced ICE
Low-cost Transmission (DHT)
Reasonable sized battery „high volume
hybrid“
7
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V 1.16
Volume electrification focuses on mild hybridization up to 48V with minor
adaptations of conventional powertrain
Trends for Electrification
EVOLUTION OF STOP-START TECHNOLOGY
*) Intelligent generator control
Gen 1 – 12V Stop-Start
Stop-Start at standstill
Limited recuperation
Components
– Reinforced 12V starter
– AGM battery
– IGR*
Fuel economy potential:
up to 5% (NEDC), 2%
(WLTP)
Gen 2 – Perfect Stop-Start
Early Stop-Start
Sailing Idle
Improved start/stop quality
Up to 4-5kW with 12V
Components
– 12V BSG, enhanced
starter
– AGM/ EFB / Li-Ion bat.
– Int. generator control
– E-clutch
Add. fuel economy
potential: 1-2 % (WLTP)
Gen 3 – Pred. Stop-Start
Early Stop-Start
Sailing Idle / Sailing Stop
Predictive energy managm.
P0 and P2 architecture
Up to 15 / 20kW with 48V
Components
– Gen 2 12V comp.
– 48V components
Add. fuel economy:
– 2-7% (WLTP),
– 5..20% real world driv.
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V 1.16
The FEV AMG45 with gasoline engine and 48 V Bosch BRM and DCDC,
BorgWarner eCharger and A123 Battery provides highest performance
Trends for Electrification
M
Engine
Architecture
Vehicle
Load Starter BSG
DC/DC
eCharger Battery AGM
12 V 48 V
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V 1.16
48V BSG P0 systems shows advantages from low integration effort and
low additional cost but with limitation in recuperation and cold start
Transmission. tech 10
48V TECHNOLOGIES AND ARCHITECTURES
*FEV expert evaluation (no detailed simulation); Base vehicle: C-Segment, gasoline, manual transmission, ~1350 kg; w/o stop/start
CADC = Common Artemis Driving Cycle
48V BSG (P0) 48V ISG (P1) 48V ISG (P2) 48V ISG (P3) 48V Rear Axle (P4)
BSG
Arc
hite
ctu
re
CO
2
Pro
/Co
n
Belt-starter-generator
providing electric
power up to 15 kW
Integrated-starter-
generator between
ICE and clutch
Integrated-starter-
generator between
transmission & clutch
(parallel or coaxial)
Integrated-starter-
generator at
transmission output
(parallel or coaxial)
Electric machine
placed at rear axle
with optional flywheel
EM EM
EM
EM
EM EM
■ NEDC: - 9%*
■ WLTC: - 6%*
■ CADC: - 5%*
■ NEDC: - 9%*
■ WLTC: - 7%*
■ CADC: - 6%*
■ NEDC: - 11%*
■ WLTC: - 10%*
■ CADC: - 8%*
■ NEDC: - 10%*
■ WLTC: - 9%*
■ CADC: - 7%*
■ NEDC: -7 to -9%*
■ WLTC: -5 to -7%*
■ CADC: -4 to -7%*
Low integration effort
Low additional cost
Reduc. recuperation
due to ICE drag and
belt torque capability
Limited cold starting
Comfort. start/stop
Generation during
standstill
Reduc. recuperation
due to ICE drag
Packaging
Comfort. start/stop
Efficient sailing
Limited e-driving
Modification of ICE,
clutch, transmission,
cooling etc.
Packaging
No ICE modification
Compatible to diff.
transmissions
Limited e-drive
No start/stop
Major transmission
modification
No ICE modification
Independent from front
wheel drive
No extra length
Modification of rear
axle plus add. gearbox
No start/stop
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V 1.16
Electrification rapidly requires automatic transmission. AMT or AutoClutch
is good bridging technology with high significance for India
Transmission. tech 11
*FEV expert evaluation (no detailed simulation); Base vehicle: C-Segment, gasoline, manual transmission, ~1350 kg; w/o stop/start
CADC = Common Artemis Driving Cycle
48V BSG (P0) 48V ISG (P1) 48V ISG (P2) 48V ISG (P3) 48V Rear Axle (P4)
BSG
Arc
hite
ctu
re
CO
2
Pro
/Co
n
Belt-starter-generator
providing electric
power up to 15 kW
Integrated-starter-
generator between
ICE and clutch
Integrated-starter-
generator between
transmission & clutch
(parallel or coaxial)
Integrated-starter-
generator at
transmission output
(parallel or coaxial)
Electric machine
placed at rear axle
with optional flywheel
EM EM
EM
EM
EM EM
■ NEDC: - 6%*
■ WLTC: - 4%*
■ CADC: - 3%*
■ NEDC: - 9%*
■ WLTC: - 7%*
■ CADC: - 6%*
■ NEDC: - 11%*
■ WLTC: - 10%*
■ CADC: - 8%*
■ NEDC: - 10%*
■ WLTC: - 9%*
■ CADC: - 7%*
■ NEDC: -9 %*
■ WLTC: -7 %*
■ CADC: -7 %*
Low integration effort
Low additional cost
Reduc. recuperation
due to ICE drag and
belt torque capability
Limited cold starting
Comfort. start/stop
Generation during
standstill
Reduc. recuperation
due to ICE drag
Packaging
Comfort. start/stop
Efficient sailing
Limited e-driving
Modification of ICE,
clutch, transmission,
cooling etc.
Packaging
No ICE modification
Compatible to diff.
transmissions
Limited e-drive
No start/stop
Major transmission
modification
No ICE modification
Independent from front
wheel drive
No extra length
Modification of rear
axle plus add. gearbox
No start/stop
48V TECHNOLOGIES AND ARCHITECTURES: ALL REQUIRE MINIMUM AUTO CLUTCH TO ACHIEVE FE POTENTIAL
AutoClutch Automatic Manual
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V 1.16
48V makes hybrid functions available at low additional cost and offers a
kind of “entry hybrid solution” to end users with comfortable functions
Transmission. tech
COMFORT – ASSESSMENT OF 48V FUNCTIONALITIES
Source: FEV research
Functions Conv. 12V 12V BSG 48V BSG 48V ISG
Recuperation
E-Boosting
E-Charging
High power consumer (EPS, eA/C etc.)
Early engine-off / coasting engine-off / sailing
Freewheeling (engine on)
Electric Creeping <15 km/h
Electric Driving >30 km/h
strong weak
12
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V 1.16
Source: FEV
Additional component cost over CO2-reduction potential in WLTP
Today mild hybrid architectures are
all in the area of 95 € / g CO2 fuel
savings
However there is an uncertainty on
48V architecture component costs
especially
12V micro hybrid systems reach up
to 5 % fuel reduction for 150 … 250 €
system costs
48V mild hybrid systems reach up to
10 % fuel reduction for 700 … 900 €
system costs
High voltage hybrids offer highest fuel
reduction potential for very high
system costs 0
200
400
600
800
1,000
0 5 10 15 20 25
3
2
1
Est. cost
2017
Fuel savings in g CO2/km
Ad
ditio
na
l co
mpo
nent co
st
in €
1: 12V enhanced starter
2: 12V BSG dual storage system
3: 48V dual voltage system
Fuel and Cost Trade Off
3
2
1 Est. cost
2022
Today 48V systems are not fully cost competitive while 12V systems show
best cost-fuel saving compromise. But in 2025 the situation will change.
Trends for Hybridization
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V 1.16
Trends for Hybridization
Pictures: Daimler, Volkswagen, Toyota, BMW, Mitsubishi
Two or more e-motors
Power Split Axle Split Meshed Parallel
One e-motor
PHEV
Toyota Prius
PHEV AT DCT
Ford Fusion
Electric
BMW i8
Volvo V60 /
XC90
Mitsubishi
Outlander
Chevrolet
Volt
Honda
Accord
Mercedes
C350e / S500 /
GLE 500e
Audi Q7
BMW X5 eDrive
Porsche
Panamera S-E
Volkswagen Golf
GTE
Audi A3 e-tron
PHEV concepts
Four different hybrid topologies exist in the market, either with two or more
e-machines and simple T/M or one e-motor and conventional T/M
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V 1.16
The All Electric Range is mainly defined by the Battery Size. A Trend in
Europe is towards an Electric Range for the Statistically Daily Use
Trends for Hybridization
ELECTRIC RANGE OF MAIN PHEVS IN NEDC
Most Manufacturer’s offer 25 to 40km electric range, some 50 km but only GM Volt with
80km (that is more a Range Extender Electric Vehicle)
Volt
Prius
Chinese subsidies limit
Trend 2020
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Suitable electrified powertrain at reasonable cost and range for cities
with congested traffic but without an existing charging infrastructure?
17 BE – Benchmark Level 0
REQUIREMENTS
Driving cycle
Fuel consumption: < 3 l/100km
Range: > 1000km
Battery: < 500$
Powertrain cost: fitting to A/B-Segment cars
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V 1.16
Highly efficient small gasoline engine with reasonable sized battery and
cost-reduction by removing the transmission
18
http://www.nissan.co.jp/NOTE/performance_epower.html
Concept Appraisal: Note E-Power
BE – Benchmark Level 0
POWERTRAIN LAYOUT
HV DC HV AC LV DC
EM
Rear Axle
AC
DC
Li-Ion Battery
Front Axle
GEN: Electric Generator ICE: Internal Combustion Engine EM: Electric Machine
GEN
ICE - Gasoline
AC
DC
Small but high efficient engine (e.g. 3 cylinder),
phlegmatically operated in best efficiency areas
Reasonable sized battery
2 electric machines BUT no transmission
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V 1.16
19
http://www.asahi.com/and_M/articles/SDI2017011267061.html
The NISSAN Note E-Power was designed to fulfill these requirements and
still be future proof by maybe going for REEV with scalable battery capacity
Specifications Note E-Power
Weight [kg] 1220
EM Max. Power [kW] / Torque [Nm] 80 / 254
ICE Max. Power [kW] / Torque [Nm] 58 / 103
Battery Capacity [kWh] 1,5
Targets Note E-Power
Powertrain Layout Series Hybrid Type
Fuel Consumption (JC08) [L/100km] 2,7
Range [km] 1300
BE – Benchmark Level 0
VEHICLE SPECIFICATIONS AND TARGETS
JC08: driving in congested traffic condition
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V 1.16
FEV HYBex3: Dedicated hybrid transmission enable multi-mode driving
and are capable to bring system costs to a reasonable level
Template Highlights Beirat 20
TOPOLOGY
2x 35 kW 66Nm (peak)
motor/generators
Two direct gears in parallel Mode
Series mode in neutral position
ICE
100 kW 220 Nm BMW B38
Custom ICE software with torque-
and Stop/Start interface
BATTERY
LiFePo Cells
5.5 kWh in total
69 kW (peak)
Hybrid Concept
FLEXIBLE DEMONSTRATOR PLATFORM FOR CONCEPT INVESTIGATIONS
Source: FEV/DENSO
Gears
Driving Modes
HYBex3
EV
Low High
Series Hybrid
CVT
Parallel Hybrid
Low High
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V 1.16
System optimization will contribute to more extended driving range and
faster charging times of Battery Electric Vehicles
EV TRENDS
*) two times higher capacity on equivalent cost, weight and volume
**) >1.5 kW/kg
***) ADAS, camera, LIDAR and Car2x services
Battery improvement with
new generation of cells*
Electric machines with
higher power density**
Thermal management with
insulation of passenger cabin
and heat pump combined with
battery cooling
Fast charging of batteries
with up to 200 kW
Light-weight body and
chassis to increase energy
efficiency
Integration of predictive
functionalities for energy
management optimization***
SYSTEM OPTIMIZATION
2016-06-14 / Electrification trends Trends for Hybridization
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V 1.16
Next generation of battery cells for electric vehicles will offer > 300 Wh/kg,
while C-rate will decrease due to higher pack capacity
Trends for Electrification
SPECIFIC RAGONE PLOT
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000
Sp
ecif
ic E
nerg
y [
Wh
/kg
]
Specific Power [W/kg]
Chemistry
NMC
NCA
LTO
LFP
NiMH
Supercap
Other
Shape
Cylindrical
Prismatic
Pouch
5C 10C
20C
50C
Trend
PHEV25
Trend
PHEV40
Trend
BEV
PlugIn Hybrids
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V 1.16
Reasonable battery capacity is also limited by charging time and available
infrastructure to approx. 60-80 kWh usable energy
Trends for Hybridization
Estimated average energy consumption: 14 kWh/100km
Energy consumption per 100 km in
NEDC:
BMW i3: 12.9 kWh
BYD e6: 21.6 kWh
Ford Focus electric: 15.9 kWh
iMiev: 12.6 kWh
Tesla S: ~25 kWh
30 min fast charging with
120 kW DC to 80% SoC:
60 kWh ~ 400 km range
8 h standard charging at 16 A /
400VAC socket (11 kW) to 100%
SoC (CCCV-charging):
Approx. 70 kWh ~ 500 km range
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
Ele
ctr
ic r
an
ge [
km
]
Socket type
8 h 30 min.
Trends on Battery Electric Vehicles
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V 1.16
eHorizon technology based on map and ADAS sensor data enable
predictive energy management
eHorizon based Operational Strategy
Trends for Electrification
# SELECTED EXAMPLES
Long eHorizon (map based)
SOC planning strategy for entire route
Medium eHorizon (map and sensor based)
SOC Leveling for downhill and slow driving
zones
HVAC strategy
Short eHorizon (car2x com. / sensor based)
Smart Adaptive Cruise Control
Situation analysis for
recuperation
coasting
start-stop inkl. sailing stop
shifting strategy
All ranges to be further improved by connectivity
data
Predictive Energy management
based on eHorizon
PlugIn Hybrids
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V 1.16
Dynamic Speed Trajectory Optimization for Achieving Real World Optimum
Energy Consumption
FEV SMARTDRIVE vehicle was driven in a representative driving scenario as baseline test.
Driving scenario covers a typical inner city EV driving mileage, according to FEV EV fleet operation study.
The selected route includes varies of traffic events, e.g. speed bumps, roundabouts, traffic lights etc.
FEV Day of Smart New Energy Vehicle - Christiaens - March 30th 2017 25
CASE STUDY – BASELINE TEST
~ 4 km
~ 500 s
Camera
Lidar
GPS, LTE, DSRC
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V 1.16
Dynamic Speed Trajectory Optimization for Achieving Real World Optimum
Energy Consumption
Optimized speed profile has smoother acceleration and deceleration, and more constant speed driving.
FEV Day of Smart New Energy Vehicle - Christiaens - March 30th 2017 26
CASE STUDY – 3D VIEW OF THE SPEED PROFILES
Distance / m
Spee
d / k
ph
Spee
d L
egend /
kph
Base Test
Opt. Test
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V 1.16
Dynamic Speed Trajectory Optimization for Achieving Real World Optimum
Energy Consumption
7.3% energy consumption reduction is achieved with even less travel time.
Speed trajectories were reproduced on test track.
Base test was a random drive, result may differ with different test (better result may be possible)
Energy reduction shows less sensitivity to speed deviation caused by the driver
FEV Day of Smart New Energy Vehicle - Christiaens - March 30th 2017 27
CASE STUDY – ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND TRAVEL TIME STUDY
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V 1.16
Electrification – Technical Trends for Indian market
Micro Hybrid based on 12V will become a low-cost standard hybridization with increasing share, applicable in all
vehicle classes, but due to WLTP cycle technologies like start/stop will provide less advantage BUT higher impact
on real life fuel consumption and TCO.
Hybridization larger than 12V micro hybrid will require automatic transmission to exploit its potential. Automatic
transmission market is still small, but AutoClutch or AMT can provide good bridging technology.
Mild Hybrids based on 48 V comes into the market starting following the European introduction and corresponding
availability at reasonable cost Enabler for coasting stop
Plug-In Hybrids and BEV are the important to reduce cycle CO2-values, but success will also largely depend on
government incentives
Dedicated Hybrid Transmission, Combined Hybrid and low-cost HEV will become relevant in 2025 time frame
Low-cost 2- or 3-wheeler BEV up to A segment likely to enter higher volumes first
Li-Ion batteries so far with very small share in Indian market, to be boosted for higher electrification needs
Predictive Strategies like e-Horizon** will improve fuel economy for all kind of powertrains for real life operation
important enabler for customer acceptance
SUMMARY
*) trade-off to 95€/g CO2 penalty payments
**) real life fuel consumption Transmission. tech 28