Trends and Insights From Grain Based Categories
-
Upload
jescie-soto -
Category
Documents
-
view
19 -
download
1
description
Transcript of Trends and Insights From Grain Based Categories
1
Insert client logo in master here
Copyright © 2004 ACNielsena VNU business
Copyright © 2004 ACNielsena VNU business
Trends and Insights From Grain Based
Categories
Bill Goergen
ACNielsen
2
Copyright © 2004 ACNielsena VNU business
Copyright © 2004 ACNielsena VNU business
A Brief Word from our Sponsor…
A VNU Company…
Active in over 100 countries around the world tracking sales in retail outlets measuring purchases in households (online) consumer surveys, interviews, focus groups
VNU Advisory Services integrate information from multiple sources transform raw data into strategic insights and
tailor-made recommendations advise on winning business decisions for complex
sales and marketing issues
3
Copyright © 2004 ACNielsena VNU business
Copyright © 2004 ACNielsena VNU business
What are we going to look at today?
Consumer Sales Trends of a variety of grain based categories
Focus on Bread, Cereal, Pasta, and Rice Regular vs Whole Grain Trends Consumer take away and purchase
dynamics Summary and Conclusions
4
Copyright © 2004 ACNielsena VNU business
Copyright © 2004 ACNielsena VNU business
Today’s Presentation
Covers Fixed Weight products, with a UPC Code Fresh Bakery Products not included Any Product that does not have a UPC
Does not cover fresh or random weight items
Generally, from the Grocery Channel (Outlets noted on each slide) Wal-Mart is not included
5
Copyright © 2004 ACNielsena VNU business
Copyright © 2004 ACNielsena VNU business
Fun Facts to Know and Tell
Low Carb diets first appeared in the 19th Century
Robert Atkins published his first diet book in 1972
Through the first 6 months of 2004, 994 new low carb products have been launched
Low Carb industry sales will top $25 Billion in 2004
6
Copyright © 2004 ACNielsena VNU business
Copyright © 2004 ACNielsena VNU business
A few thoughts for consideration..
Can we separate trends within “Grains” from trends impacted by “Low Carb”? Yes, but…
Many factors impact Category Trends Pricing Promotion New Product Innovations Demographic Trends Consumer & Historical trends Etc…
7
Copyright © 2004 ACNielsena VNU business
Copyright © 2004 ACNielsena VNU business
High Carb Categories have clearly had recent declines in Categories Sales
This includes Grain Based categories as well. Some categories, like Cereal, may have been impacted but have been declining for years.
Source: ACNielsen Strategic Planner – FDM (Food, Drug and Mass Combined xWal-Mart)Source: ACNielsen Strategic Planner – FDM (Food, Drug and Mass Combined xWal-Mart)
TOTAL US - FDM
52 weeks ending
04/21/01
TOTAL CEREAL (-2.4) (-1.5) (-0.9) (-5.0)TOTAL BREAD & BAKED GOODS (-0.2) 0.3 (-0.1) (-2.9)TOTAL PASTA (-1.3) 0.6 (-1.0) (-5.5)DEHYDRATED POTATOES (-2.6) 4.1 2.2 (-8.6)SW. POTATOES & YAMS - CANNED (-2.5) (-7.8) (-4.3) 1.7POTATO - FROZEN 1.5 0.5 (-1.8) (-4.1)TOTAL PIZZA/SNACKS - FROZEN 4.6 4.9 (-0.5) 2.1SALAD DRESSING - REDUCED/LOW CAL (-5.5) (-4.5) (-3.2) (-4.7)TOTAL CRACKERS 2.1 (-1.4) 0.3 (-3.0)TOTAL JUICES DRINKS - SHELF STBL (-1.5) 1.2 1.6 0.8
Unit Pct Chg vs YAG
52 weeks ending
04/20/02
52 weeks ending
04/19/03
Latest 26 weeks thru 01/24/04
TOTAL PREPARED FOODS - DRY MIXESORANGE JUICE - REFRIGERATED
1.54.6
(-0.4)(-1.7)
(-2.1)0.3
(-4.7)(-2.9)
8
Copyright © 2004 ACNielsena VNU business
Copyright © 2004 ACNielsena VNU business
Some Trends Point Consumers Away from Grain Based Foods
Monday, August 30, 2004
9
Copyright © 2004 ACNielsena VNU business
Copyright © 2004 ACNielsena VNU business
Declines in Grain Based Categories accelerated after the death of Mr. Atkins
-0.2
-1.7
-1.1
-1.1
-3.9
-6.6
-6.7
-5.2
-3.5
-3.2
-4.9
-3.4RTE Cereal
Pasta
Rice
Fresh Bread
52 WK 4/12/03 52 WK 4/10/04 18 WK 8/7/04
Source: Strategic Planner
Pre April ‘03 Post April ‘03 Current Trend
10
Copyright © 2004 ACNielsena VNU business
Copyright © 2004 ACNielsena VNU business
Fresh Bread Sales declined dramatically beginning in the Spring of 2003Total US FDM X WM
Rolling 4 wk % Chg vs YA
(8)
(7)
(6)
(5)
(4)
(3)
(2)
(1)
-
1
2
3
08/
10/0
2 0
9/07
/02
10/
05/0
2 11
/02/
02 11
/30/
02 1
2/28
/02
01/
25/0
3 0
2/22
/03
03/
22/0
3 0
4/19
/03
05/
17/0
3 0
6/14
/03
07/
12/0
3 0
8/09
/03
09/
06/0
3 1
0/04
/03
11/0
1/03
11/2
9/03
12/
27/0
3 0
1/24
/04
02/
21/0
4 0
3/20
/04
04/
17/0
4 0
5/15
/04
06/
12/0
4 0
7/10
/04
08/
07/0
4
% C
hg
EQ
Vo
l
11
Copyright © 2004 ACNielsena VNU business
Copyright © 2004 ACNielsena VNU business
On a long term basis, we do not see signs of recovery in Total Bread Sales
Total US Food/Drug/Mass Ex Wal Mart Eq Volume Change - Rolling 52 Week Basis
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
10/ 0
6/01
12-
29-0
1
04/ 2
0/02
07/ 1
3/02
10/ 0
5/02
12/ 2
8/02
04/ 1
9/03
07/ 1
2/03
10/ 0
4/03
12/ 2
7/03
04/ 1
7/04
07/ 1
0/04
Eq Volume Chg (000)
Column 1
Total Bread
12
Copyright © 2004 ACNielsena VNU business
Copyright © 2004 ACNielsena VNU business
Whole Wheat/Oat Bread Representsa Significant Portion of Total Bread
Sales and…
45%
27%
28%
White Whole Wheat Other
Total Bread
13
Copyright © 2004 ACNielsena VNU business
Copyright © 2004 ACNielsena VNU business
…Whole Wheat Bread continues to grow on a consistent basis
Total US Food/Drug/Mass Ex Wal Mart - Eq Vol Change - Rolling 52 Week Basis
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6Eq Volume Chg (000)
White Whole Wheat
Total Bread
14
Copyright © 2004 ACNielsena VNU business
Copyright © 2004 ACNielsena VNU business
97.3
74.891.5
72.8
10.323.2
4.7
77.6
0
20
40
60
80
100
Bread White Non-White
Wheat Oat/OatBran
Rye Pump A/O Non-White
Flavor Buyers
Household Penetration
More Households purchase non-white Bread than White Bread Wheat penetration gains were greater than White bread losses
Pt. Chg -0.2 -1.7 +0.4 +2.9 -0.7 -0.9 +0.0 -0.9
Segments
52 weeks April 24, 2004
Total Bread
15
Copyright © 2004 ACNielsena VNU business
Copyright © 2004 ACNielsena VNU business
Quarterly Penetration Total Fresh Bread is declining very slowly over time # of Households buying White and Wheat bread are nearly the
same – White declining and Wheat growing
Household Penetration
90.9 91.1 89.7 89.5 90.7 90.1 89.3
58.9 59.5 56.3 56.2 56.7 56.8 53.8
47.1 47.8 48.3 47.9 50.1 49.7 50.5
90.0
57.7
45.4
0
25
50
75
100
07/27/02 10/26/02 01/25/03 04/26/03 07/26/03 10/25/03 01/24/04 04/24/04
Total Bread
White Bread
Wheat Bread
Total Bread
16
Copyright © 2004 ACNielsena VNU business
Copyright © 2004 ACNielsena VNU business
Where did the White Bread Buyers Go? In total, White bread declines were almost equal across three
factors – but the largest percent was lost Baked good purchases However volume was also shifted to other breads and other
(non-bread) baked goods
Percent of Volume Loss
36.5
32.1
31.4
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
White Bread Loss
To OtherBreads
To OtherBaked
LostBakedVolume
Total Bread
17
Copyright © 2004 ACNielsena VNU business
Copyright © 2004 ACNielsena VNU business
RTE Cereal Volume Trends have been in long term decline
Total US Food $2MM Eq Volume Change - Rolling 52 Week Basis
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
10/ 0
6/01
12-
29-0
1
04/ 2
0/02
07/ 1
3/02
10/ 0
5/02
12/ 2
8/02
04/ 1
9/03
07/ 1
2/03
10/ 0
4/03
12/ 2
7/03
04/ 1
7/04
07/ 1
0/04
Eq Volume Chg (000)
Column 1
Total RTE Cereal
18
Copyright © 2004 ACNielsena VNU business
Copyright © 2004 ACNielsena VNU business
The Rate of volume decline for Ready to Eat Cereal quickened in early 2003
Total US FDMRolling 4 wk % Chg vs. YA
(10)
(8)
(6)
(4)
(2)
-
2
4
08/
10/0
2 0
9/07
/02
10/
05/0
2 1
1/02
/02
11/
30/0
2 1
2/28
/02
01/
25/0
3 0
2/22
/03
03/
22/0
3 0
4/19
/03
05/
17/0
3 0
6/14
/03
07/
12/0
3 0
8/09
/03
09/
06/0
3 1
0/04
/03
11/
01/0
3 1
1/29
/03
12/
27/0
3 0
1/24
/04
02/
21/0
4 0
3/20
/04
04/
17/0
4 0
5/15
/04
06/
12/0
4 0
7/10
/04
08/
07/0
4
% C
hg
EQ
Vo
lTotal RTE
Cereal
19
Copyright © 2004 ACNielsena VNU business
Copyright © 2004 ACNielsena VNU business
10-Year Penetration Trend
Like Bread, Penetration Trends on RTE Cereal have been in decline for years
% of Households Purchasing RTE Cereal
95.7 95.3 94.9 94.7 94.4 93.7 93.4 93.6 93.5 92.995.6
50
75
100
94 95 96 97 98 99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04
Total RTE Cereal
Source: Consumer*Facts 1999 - 2003
20
Copyright © 2004 ACNielsena VNU business
Copyright © 2004 ACNielsena VNU business
10-Year Buying Rate Trend In addition to penetration declines, Buying Rate
Trends for RTE Cereal have been softening for years The annual decline between ’03 and ’04 is the largest
in 10 yearsPounds Purchased per Household - RTE
Cereal
30.9 31.3 30.7 31.129.1 28.3 27.6 27.3 27.8 26.5
31.4
10
15
20
25
30
35
94 95 96 97 98 99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04
Total RTE Cereal
Source: ACNielsen Homescan Consumer Panel
21
Copyright © 2004 ACNielsena VNU business
Copyright © 2004 ACNielsena VNU business
Pasta Trends are Similar to Bread and Cereal
Total US FDMRolling 4 wk % Chg vs YA
(14)
(12)
(10)
(8)
(6)
(4)
(2)
-
2
08/
10/0
2 0
9/07
/02
10/
05/0
2 11
/02/
02 11
/30/
02 1
2/28
/02
01/
25/0
3 0
2/22
/03
03/
22/0
3 0
4/19
/03
05/
17/0
3 0
6/14
/03
07/
12/0
3 0
8/09
/03
09/
06/0
3 1
0/04
/03
11/0
1/03
11/2
9/03
12/
27/0
3 0
1/24
/04
02/
21/0
4 0
3/20
/04
04/
17/0
4 0
5/15
/04
06/
12/0
4 0
7/10
/04
08/
07/0
4
% C
hg
EQ
Vo
l
Total Pasta
22
Copyright © 2004 ACNielsena VNU business
Copyright © 2004 ACNielsena VNU business
Long Term Pasta Declines pre-date the Post Atkins acceleration
Total US Food $2MM Eq Volume Change - Rolling 52 Week Basis
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
10/ 0
6/01
12-
29-0
1
04/ 2
0/02
07/ 1
3/02
10/ 0
5/02
12/ 2
8/02
04/ 1
9/03
07/ 1
2/03
10/ 0
4/03
12/ 2
7/03
04/ 1
7/04
07/ 1
0/04
Eq Volume Chg (000)
Column 1
Total Pasta
23
Copyright © 2004 ACNielsena VNU business
Copyright © 2004 ACNielsena VNU business
Total Whole Wheat Pasta sales, while still strong, are moderating
Total US Food $2MM Eq Volume Change - Rolling 52 Week Basis
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
10/ 0
6/01
12-
29-0
1
04/ 2
0/02
07/ 1
3/02
10/ 0
5/02
12/ 2
8/02
04/ 1
9/03
07/ 1
2/03
10/ 0
4/03
12/ 2
7/03
04/ 1
7/04
07/ 1
0/04
Eq Volume Chg (000)
Column 1
Total Pasta
24
Copyright © 2004 ACNielsena VNU business
Copyright © 2004 ACNielsena VNU business
CORE36%
RECIPE READY37%
SPECIALTY14%
NOODLES13%
+8%
Source: ACNielsen RMS Data; Total US; 52 w/e 4/19/04 vs YAGO; $2MM+ Grocery Stores
Health oriented Dry Pasta types are driving the Specialty pasta increases
Dry
Pas
ta D
oll
ar S
har
es &
C
han
ge
vs Y
AG
O
Flavored -19%Wheat +28%Organic/Soy +52%Filled +30%All Other -1%
HEALTH CONSCIOUS
-3%
-2%
-3%
Total Pasta
25
Copyright © 2004 ACNielsena VNU business
Copyright © 2004 ACNielsena VNU business
Some Types of Pasta Appeal to Different Types of Households
Spaghetti & other Long Pasta
Elbows
Lasagna
Hispanics
Empty Nesters
Families w/ Kids
Total Pasta
26
Copyright © 2004 ACNielsena VNU business
Copyright © 2004 ACNielsena VNU business
Do we see Recovery in Recent Rice trends?
Total US FDMRolling 4 wk % Chg vs YA
(12)
(10)
(8)
(6)
(4)
(2)
-
2
4
08/
10/0
2 0
9/07
/02
10/
05/0
2 11
/02/
02 11
/30/
02 1
2/28
/02
01/
25/0
3 0
2/22
/03
03/
22/0
3 0
4/19
/03
05/
17/0
3 0
6/14
/03
07/
12/0
3 0
8/09
/03
09/
06/0
3 1
0/04
/03
11/0
1/03
11/2
9/03
12/
27/0
3 0
1/24
/04
02/
21/0
4 0
3/20
/04
04/
17/0
4 0
5/15
/04
06/
12/0
4 0
7/10
/04
08/
07/0
4
% C
hg
EQ
Vo
l
Total Rice
27
Copyright © 2004 ACNielsena VNU business
Copyright © 2004 ACNielsena VNU business
Total Rice Total US Food/Drug/Mass Ex Wal Mart Eq Volume Change - Rolling 52 Week Basis
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
10/ 0
6/01
12-
29-0
1
04/ 2
0/02
07/ 1
3/02
10/ 0
5/02
12/ 2
8/02
04/ 1
9/03
07/ 1
2/03
10/ 0
4/03
12/ 2
7/03
04/ 1
7/04
07/ 1
0/04
Eq Volume Chg (000)
Column 1
Total Rice
28
Copyright © 2004 ACNielsena VNU business
Copyright © 2004 ACNielsena VNU business
Total Brown/ Wild Rice Volume Trends are softening in recent months - in contrast to whole
grain segments of Bread, Cereal, and PastaTotal US Food/Drug/Mass Ex Wal Mart Eq Volume Change - Rolling 52 Week Basis
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
10/ 0
6/01
12-
29-0
1
04/ 2
0/02
07/ 1
3/02
10/ 0
5/02
12/ 2
8/02
04/ 1
9/03
07/ 1
2/03
10/ 0
4/03
12/ 2
7/03
04/ 1
7/04
07/ 1
0/04
Eq Volume Chg (000)
Column 1
Total Rice
29
Copyright © 2004 ACNielsena VNU business
Copyright © 2004 ACNielsena VNU business
Total Brown/ Wild Rice vs Other Total US Food/Drug/Mass Ex Wal Mart Eq Volume Change - Rolling 52 Week Basis
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
10/ 0
6/01
12-
29-0
1
04/ 2
0/02
07/ 1
3/02
10/ 0
5/02
12/ 2
8/02
04/ 1
9/03
07/ 1
2/03
10/ 0
4/03
12/ 2
7/03
04/ 1
7/04
07/ 1
0/04
Eq Volume Chg (000)
Brown/ Wild White/ Instant
Total Rice
30
Copyright © 2004 ACNielsena VNU business
Copyright © 2004 ACNielsena VNU business
Summary and Conclusion Grain trends are clearly impacted by the
Low Carb trends General Mills believes ~ 1%
Long Term trends are impacting overall category performance Not just a low carb phenom
Whole Grain Segments are generally much stronger than white/processed Good Carbs vs Bad Carbs? “Net Carbs” the next Marketing Buzz? An opportunity for Manufacturers?
31
Insert client logo in master here
Copyright © 2004 ACNielsena VNU business
Copyright © 2004 ACNielsena VNU business
Thank You!
32
Insert client logo in master here
Copyright © 2004 ACNielsena VNU business
Copyright © 2004 ACNielsena VNU business
Appendix
33
Copyright © 2004 ACNielsena VNU business
Copyright © 2004 ACNielsena VNU business
Regular vs Whole Wheat Pasta Total US Food $2MM
Eq Volume Change - Rolling 52 Week Basis
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
10/ 0
6/01
12-
29-0
1
04/ 2
0/02
07/ 1
3/02
10/ 0
5/02
12/ 2
8/02
04/ 1
9/03
07/ 1
2/03
10/ 0
4/03
12/ 2
7/03
04/ 1
7/04
07/ 1
0/04
Eq Volume Chg (000)
Regular Whole Wheat
Total Pasta
34
Copyright © 2004 ACNielsena VNU business
Copyright © 2004 ACNielsena VNU business
Penetration Over 60% of Low Carb Diet households still purchase White
They are no less likely to purchase Bread than other households, but fewer purchase White and more purchase Wheat
Wheat is increasing and White declining over all households
Percent of Households Purchasing
95.3
66.0 61.7
95.2
62.2 65.9
95.3
66.6 61.1
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Fresh Bread White Wheat
All Households Low Carb NOT low carb
-0.1 +0.3 -0.2 -2.2 -3.4 -2.0 +3.0 +2.8 +5.6Point Change:
6 months 11/03 Vs 11/02
Total Bread