Trends and Comparisons in Higher Education Economics: How has Kentucky Fared? William Hoyt, Acting...
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Transcript of Trends and Comparisons in Higher Education Economics: How has Kentucky Fared? William Hoyt, Acting...
Trends and Comparisons in Higher Education Economics: How has
Kentucky Fared?
William Hoyt, Acting Director
Center for Business & Economic Research
Policy Conference: 2004 Center for Business and Economic Research
“Economics of Higher Education”
• Issues to consider:– Financing Education
• State versus Individual (Family & Student) contributions
– Returns to Education– Participation and Access– Completion
Financing Education
• State Support– Kentucky has relatively high state support for public
higher education• High State Spending per Student• Higher State Spending per Capita• 2nd highest percentage increase in state and local
appropriations 1990-2002, Highest per student
• Students and Family Support– Relatively Low Tuition (20th)– Very low student borrowing and debt– High cost for Lowest Income Households
Higher Education Assistance Per Student, 2002
Appropriation of State Tax Funds for Higher Education Per Capita -
2004
State and Local Appropriations for Higher Education% Change (Real), 1990-2002
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
State
% C
hang
e in
Rea
l Spe
ndin
g
State and Local Appropriations for Higher State and Local Appropriations for Higher EducationEducation
% Change (Real), 1990-2002% Change (Real), 1990-2002State
% Change, 1990 - 2002
%Change, Real 1990-2002
% Change in Enrollment
% Change, Funding per
NV 148.9 120.7 77.9 9.3KY 137.9 109.7 21.3 53.2LA 114.7 86.5 43.0 17.3AR 109.2 80.9 52.7 7.0WV 108.4 80.2 10.3 47.7ID 106.7 78.5 39.3 16.0UT 104.6 76.4 62.3 -1.5MD 86.9 58.6 12.6 29.6GA 85.1 56.8 15.1 25.6MS 83.6 55.3 33.2 7.7CA 83.2 55.0 17.6 21.7NC 82.4 54.1 34.5 5.9AZ 80.0 51.7 28.5 9.4IL 76.9 48.7 -5.2 45.8CO 72.1 43.9 15.7 16.3WA 71.3 43.1 42.7 -6.2TX 71.2 43.0 19.9 11.6Average 69.5 41.2 15.1 15.0KS 69.4 41.1 1.6 30.2MI 68.9 40.6 7.1 23.2
Comparisons of Public Salaries, 2002
A. Inflation Adjusted
4-year institutions
2-yearTotal University Other 4-year
Kentucky 55,421 8 63,532 7 50,914 8 44,045 6
United States 61,957 3 67,992 2 58,007 2 51,576 2
Illinois 61,386 4 67,565 3 56,247 4 57,632 1
Indiana 59,744 5 63,344 8 52,658 7 39,868 8
Missouri 56,748 6 67,231 4 54,650 5 46,492 5
Ohio 64,029 2 65,971 5 56,861 3 51,318 3
Tennessee 55,590 7 64,510 6 52,713 6 39,579 9
Virginia 64,382 1 70,233 1 60,810 1 47,050 4
West Virginia 50,326 9 58,917 9 46,415 9 42,212 7
Average Tuition 4-Year Public, 2004
0500
1,0001,500
2,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,500
5,0005,5006,0006,5007,0007,500
8,0008,5009,000
State
Ann
ual T
uiti
on
Tuition, 2004 & Change, 2000-2004
STATE NAME Tuition, 2004 Rank Change, $ Change, %AnnumRank of ChangeKentucky 3869 30 $1,542 13.6 7Alabama 3978 29 $1,490 12.4 12Alaska 3425 38 $814 7.0 45Arizona 3586 36 $1,528 14.9 5Arkansas 4041 28 $1,589 13.3 8California 3797 32 $1,085 8.8 36Colorado 3453 37 $833 7.1 44Connecticut 5767 11 $1,497 7.8 39Delaware 6177 7 $1,860 9.4 34Florida 2553 50 $642 7.5 42Georgia 3223 42 $867 8.1 38Hawaii 3242 41 $454 3.8 50Idaho 3323 39 $1,121 10.8 26Illinois 5662 13 $1,960 11.2 21Indiana 5394 15 $2,052 12.7 10Iowa 4991 19 $2,230 16.0 1Kansas 3688 34 $1,374 12.4 14Louisiana 3190 44 $912 8.8 35Maine 5019 18 $1,141 6.7 46Maryland 6242 6 $2,105 10.8 27
Average Loan Amount Students Borrow Each Year , 2003
Share of Income Poorest Families Need to Pay for Tuition at Lowest Priced Colleges, 2003
Ability to Pay, Kentucky
Education, Earnings, and Income
• Significant Gross Differences in Earnings between High School Graduates, BA, and Associate
• Associate – 3,400 (KY), 2,500 (US) 22-29 years– 8,000 (KY), 7,000 (US) 30 – 64 years
• BA– 7,400 (KY), 9,000 (US), 22-29 years– 16,000 (KY), 16,000 (US), 30-64 years
Education, Earnings, and Income (2)
• Significant Differences in Earnings between High School Graduates, BA, and Associate when controlling for characteristics
• Much greater for female• Some College
– 12-13%, Male – 40%, Female
• BA– 50%, Male– 100%, Female
• Graduate– 100%, Male– 200%, Female
Education, Earnings, and Income (3)
– Kentucky lags US in jobs in Office and Technology
– Lags in % college educated in all categories
– Lags in salaries in all categories
Median Household Income - 1999
Difference in Median Earnings Between a High School Diploma and an Associates Degree 22 to
29 Year Olds 1999
Difference in Median Earnings Between a High School Diploma and an Associates Degree 30 to
64 Year Olds 1999
Difference in Median Earnings Between a High School Diploma and an Bachelors Degree 22 to 29
Year Olds
Difference in Median Earnings Between a High School Diploma and an Bachelors Degree 30 to 64
Year Olds
Employment by Job Type (16 & Older), 2000
1.9%
23.0%
19.9%
6.1%
9.9%
33.9%
5.3%
1.2%
17.3%
20.0%
5.8%
10.0%
38.9%
6.8%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Naturalresources
Factory Low-skillservices
Health care Education &public svcs.
Office Technology
Kentucky US
Earnings by Job Type (16 & Older), 2000
$28,658 $29,365
$16,379
$34,335
$25,980
$33,944
$39,308
$28,814
$22,610
$29,978
$19,474
$39,365
$31,038
$39,851
$47,732
$33,486
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
Naturalresources
Factory Low-skillservices
Health care Education &public svcs.
Office Technology All Jobs
Kentucky US
Percent of Employees with a College Degreeby Job Type, 2000
4.6% 6.3%
10.4%
52.6% 51.3%
31.6%
52.5%
25.3%
8.6% 8.9%
15.1%
55.4% 57.0%
38.6%
62.1%
32.8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Naturalresources
Factory Low-skillservices
Health care Education &public svcs.
Office Technology All Jobs
Kentucky US
Accessibility and Participation
• Participation in Higher Education has increases in KY 1990 – 2000 but lags other states
• “Pipeline” leaks at retention (Sophomore to Graduating)
Participation
9th Graders Chance for College by Age 19
Percent Loss at Each Stage of Transition (2000)
38
31
38
40
48
27
44
26
44
36
34
41
45
23
49
41
45
33
25
29
16
22
31
30
27
41
31
25
30
41
27
29
39
26
32
21
26
26
22
16
23
16
14
16
23
31
26
25
17
25
35
41
29
25
21
37
23
35
20
26
27
25
21
42
17
30
23
33
36
39
52
36
36
31
33
20
28
36
33
21
34
29
24
35
27
43
24
27
33
34
35
26
31
30
29
24
30
29
29
23
21
17
22
24
20
24
21
27
23
26
26
21
21
21
20
15
17
20
24
16
16
26
16
22
22
20
22
21
19
19
20
24
17
19
20
14
29
25
22
27
18
35
31
28
22
20
17
19
25
23
6
11
11
11
12
12
12
12
13
13
13
13
14
14
14
14
14
15
15
16
16
17
17
17
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
19
19
20
21
21
22
22
22
22
23
24
24
25
26
26
27
27
28
28
0 20 40 60 80 100
Alaska
Nevada
TexasNew Mexico
Georgia
Oklahoma
Louisiana
ArkansasMississippi
Haw aii
Kentucky
Alabama
TennesseeIdaho
South Carolina
Arizona
Florida
OregonWest Virginia
Washington
Utah
Montana
CaliforniaOhio
Maryland
North Carolina
Michigan
WyomingColorado
New York
Missouri
Illinois
Delaw areVirginia
Indiana
Vermont
Kansas
South DakotaWisconsin
Nebraska
Maine
North Dakota
New JerseyMinnesota
Connecticut
Rhode Island
New Hampshire
PennsylvaniaIow a
Massachusetts
9th to 12th Grade HS Graduate to College College Entrance to Graduation College Graduates
“Pipeline” College Attendance and Graduation
StateFor every 100 Ninth Graders
__ Graduate from High
School
__ Enter College
__ Are Still Enrolled Their Sophomore Year
__ Graduate within 150%
Time
Kentucky 100 66 39 25 13
United States 100 67 38 26 18
Massachusetts 100 75 52 41 28
Iowa 100 83 54 37 28
Pennsylvania 100 75 46 36 27
New Hampshire 100 74 44 34 27
Rhode Island 100 70 46 37 26
Connecticut 100 77 48 37 26
Minnesota 100 84 53 38 25
New Jersey 100 86 55 40 24
North Dakota 100 84 58 42 24
Maine 100 77 42 31 23
Nebraska 100 84 50 38 22
Wisconsin 100 78 45 33 22
South Dakota 100 74 47 31 22
Kansas 100 74 50 32 22
Vermont 100 79 36 28 21
Indiana 100 68 41 30 21
Virginia 100 74 39 30 20
College-Going Rates of High School Graduates - Directly from
HS - 2000
Completion and Level of Education
• Education (% with BA or Associate) in KY lags US
• High Variance within Kentucky
• Increases in % with BA or Associate from 1990 to 2000 but slow progress despite high % attending college
25 to 34 Year Olds with a Bachelor's Degree or Higher - 2000
Change in Percentage of Population 25 or older with BA or
more, 1990-2000
Retention Rates - First-Time College Freshmen Returning Their Second Year
Four-Year Colleges/Universities - 2002
Bachelor's Degrees Awarded Per 100 HS Graduates 6 Years Earlier
Graduation Rate for Public 4-Year, 2000
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
State
Gra
du
atio
n R
ate
KentuckyNet In-Migration by Degree Level and
Age Group
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census; 5% Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) Files
22- to 29-Year-Olds 30- to 64-Year-Olds
Less than High School
High School
Some College
Associate
Bachelor’s
Graduate/Professional
Total
6,264
4,978
1,347
870
-1,398
737
12,798
-2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000
10,866
13,760
6,364
824
3,489
798
36,101
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000
Net Migration, All 22 to 29 Year Olds
Net Migration, 22 to 29 Year Olds with Associate Degree or Higher
Net Migration, 22 to 29 Year Olds with Bachelor’s Degree or Higher
Interstate Migration of Adults with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher:Change in the Stock of Adults with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher Minus the Number of Bachelor’s Degrees Awarded (1990 to 2000) – 25 to 64 Year Olds
Source: US Census Bureau, IPEDS Completions Survey
193
167
106
8274
67 6458
4433
21 2015
2 -1
-4 -7 -8 -9 -12 -13 -14 -17 -17 -19-24 -27 -30
-37
-49 -50 -51 -53 -57
-72 -75 -79 -80-88
-93
-109
-120 -124
-138
-173
-281
-380
-51-46
-10
-400
-200
0
200
Flo
rid
a
Geo
rgia
Co
lora
do
New
Jer
sey
Was
hin
gto
n
Ari
zon
a
Nev
ada
No
rth C
aro
lina
Tex
as
Vir
gin
ia
Ore
go
n
Mar
yla
nd
Idah
o
Ala
ska
New
Mex
ico
Wyo
min
g
Ten
nes
see
Min
nes
ota
Haw
aii
Mo
nta
na
So
uth
Car
oli
na
Del
awar
e
Ark
ansa
s
So
uth
Dak
ota
Mai
ne
Ver
mo
nt
New
Ham
psh
ire
Ken
tuck
y
No
rth D
ako
ta
Neb
rask
a
Mis
siss
ipp
i
Kan
sas
Co
nn
ecti
cut
Wes
t V
irgin
ia
Uta
h
Illi
no
is
Rho
de
Isla
nd
Cal
ifo
rnia
Wis
consi
n
Okla
ho
ma
Ala
bam
a
Iow
a
Lo
uis
iana
Mis
souri
Ind
iana
Mic
hig
an
Mas
sach
use
tts
Ohio
Pen
nsy
lvan
ia
New
Yo
rk
(In Thousands)
Interstate Migration of Adults with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher:Change in the Stock of Adults with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher Minus the Number of Bachelor’s Degrees Awarded (1990 to 2000) – 25 to 64 Year Olds
Source: US Census Bureau, IPEDS Completions Survey
193
167
106
8274
67 6458
4433
21 2015
2 -1
-4 -7 -8 -9 -12 -13 -14 -17 -17 -19-24 -27 -30
-37
-49 -50 -51 -53 -57
-72 -75 -79 -80-88
-93
-109
-120 -124
-138
-173
-281
-380
-51-46
-10
-400
-200
0
200
Flo
rid
a
Geo
rgia
Co
lora
do
New
Jer
sey
Was
hin
gto
n
Ari
zon
a
Nev
ada
No
rth C
aro
lina
Tex
as
Vir
gin
ia
Ore
go
n
Mar
yla
nd
Idah
o
Ala
ska
New
Mex
ico
Wyo
min
g
Ten
nes
see
Min
nes
ota
Haw
aii
Mo
nta
na
So
uth
Car
oli
na
Del
awar
e
Ark
ansa
s
So
uth
Dak
ota
Mai
ne
Ver
mo
nt
New
Ham
psh
ire
Ken
tuck
y
No
rth D
ako
ta
Neb
rask
a
Mis
siss
ipp
i
Kan
sas
Co
nn
ecti
cut
Wes
t V
irgin
ia
Uta
h
Illi
no
is
Rho
de
Isla
nd
Cal
ifo
rnia
Wis
consi
n
Okla
ho
ma
Ala
bam
a
Iow
a
Lo
uis
iana
Mis
souri
Ind
iana
Mic
hig
an
Mas
sach
use
tts
Ohio
Pen
nsy
lvan
ia
New
Yo
rk
(In Thousands)
Ratio of Net Migration of Bachelor’s Degrees to the Number of Bachelor’s Degrees Produced (%) – 1990 to 2000
Source: US Census Bureau, IPEDS Completions Survey
189
63
54
4239
35 34 33
18 18 1611 10
6
-1
-3 -3-6 -8
-16-18 -20 -22 -24
-27 -28-31 -31 -33 -34 -34 -35
-38 -39 -39 -40 -40 -41 -42 -44 -45-50 -52 -52
-60-64 -66
-35-33
-10
-100
0
100
200%N
evad
aG
eorg
iaC
olor
ado
Flo
rida
Ari
zona
Idah
oW
ashi
ngto
nN
ew J
erse
yA
lask
aN
orth
Ore
gon
Vir
gini
aM
aryl
and
Tex
asN
ew M
exic
oT
enne
ssee
Min
neso
taC
alif
orni
aS
outh
Car
olin
aIl
lino
isA
rkan
sas
Ken
tuck
yH
awai
iM
onta
naW
yom
ing
Wis
cons
inM
ichi
gan
Del
awar
eM
aine
New
Ham
pshi
reM
assa
chus
etts
Uta
hK
ansa
sO
hio
Con
nect
icut
Neb
rask
aIn
dian
aM
isso
uri
Ala
bam
aN
ew Y
ork
Sou
th D
akot
aV
erm
ont
Pen
nsyl
vani
aM
issi
ssip
piIo
wa
Lou
isia
naO
klah
oma
Wes
t Vir
gini
aR
hode
Isl
and
Nor
th D
akot
a
Ratio of Net Migration of Bachelor’s Degrees to the Number of Bachelor’s Degrees Produced (%) – 1990 to 2000
Source: US Census Bureau, IPEDS Completions Survey
189
63
54
4239
35 34 33
18 18 1611 10
6
-1
-3 -3-6 -8
-16-18 -20 -22 -24
-27 -28-31 -31 -33 -34 -34 -35
-38 -39 -39 -40 -40 -41 -42 -44 -45-50 -52 -52
-60-64 -66
-35-33
-10
-100
0
100
200%N
evad
aG
eorg
iaC
olor
ado
Flo
rida
Ari
zona
Idah
oW
ashi
ngto
nN
ew J
erse
yA
lask
aN
orth
Ore
gon
Vir
gini
aM
aryl
and
Tex
asN
ew M
exic
oT
enne
ssee
Min
neso
taC
alif
orni
aS
outh
Car
olin
aIl
lino
isA
rkan
sas
Ken
tuck
yH
awai
iM
onta
naW
yom
ing
Wis
cons
inM
ichi
gan
Del
awar
eM
aine
New
Ham
pshi
reM
assa
chus
etts
Uta
hK
ansa
sO
hio
Con
nect
icut
Neb
rask
aIn
dian
aM
isso
uri
Ala
bam
aN
ew Y
ork
Sou
th D
akot
aV
erm
ont
Pen
nsyl
vani
aM
issi
ssip
piIo
wa
Lou
isia
naO
klah
oma
Wes
t Vir
gini
aR
hode
Isl
and
Nor
th D
akot
a
High ACT (26 or above) and SAT (combined 1200 or above) Scores Per
1,000 HS Graduates - 2003
Total R&D Expenditures Per Capita - 2002