Trendrating Momentum Analytics: US Report · performance and financial success come from discipline...

Trendrating Momentum Analytics: US Report September 24, 2015

Sep 24, 2015

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INTRODUCTION TO TRENDRATING

Forecasting trends is nearly impossible. Following trends is possible and lucrative. Trendrating was developed to provide better tools to maximize investment performance and improve risk control. We bring additional intelligence and measurable value to your existing decision making processes. Superior performance and financial success come from discipline and a systematic reality check of assumptions. Bias, emotions, market noise and overconfidence may severely limit a manger's ability to perform. Over 100 asset managers globally incorporate our industry leading momentum analytics. The value of our service is not hidden behind theories and hypothesis; it is reflected every day in the P&L of our clients.

THE INCREASING IMPORTANCE OF INCLUDING THE MOMENTUM FACTOR

Momentum factor analytics can enhance the decision process. A momentum overlay is an effective addition to most investment strategies. Extensive academic research supports momentum as a strong and persistent factor, proven to add value to fundamental strategies. Analyzing momentum however is extremely difficult - noise and bias are everywhere. Momentum exists in many cases and goes unnoticed due to the lack of proper tools to measure it. Speed of analysis is crucial to promptly adjust index components. Trendrating was developed to quickly identify medium-to-long term trends while also filtering out the noise.

OUR MOMENTUM RATINGS

The complexity behind our model is boiled down to a simplistic rating scale (A, B, C, D). We believe that this approach supports an actionable decision making process and comparative analysis across markets and sectors. Trendrating’s Smart Momentum Model was conceived to support long portfolios. The ratings A and B identify positive momentum phases, while C and D signal negative trends.

HOW FUND MANAGERS USE TRENDRATING

Quickly screen the entire market to identify new opportunities and validate existing ideas

Run a systematic sanity check on all your portfolios to spot early negative momentum

Create and test a tactical overlay to your existing strategy with momentum alpha

Add a momentum smart beta element to your portfolios

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MARKET OVERVIEW

The Pie Charts below show momentum distribution in US Equity sectors. As you will see Health Care, Financials and Consumer Goods currently present the best opportunities for spotting equities with positive momentum. The majority of constituents in the Oil and Gas, Utilities and Basic Materials Sectors are currently trending negatively.

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This report will now focus on the momentum events in the following four key sectors: Financials, Technology, Consumer Goods and Health care

Financials Current Rating Distribution:

Momentum Changes over the last week Upgrade: Downgrade Ratio = 1:2

A sample of securities with rating changes in the last week

Upgrades Downgrades

Ticker Name Rating Ticker Name Rating

BAH Booz Allen Ham A ZBH Zimmer Biomet Hldgs D

PSB Ps Busin Parks Reit B DLR Digital Realty Reit D

CFFN Capitol Fed Fin B AJG A.j.gallagher D

NYRT New York Reit B PBCT People's Untd C

ROIC Retail Opp Inv Reit A BOKF Bok Finl C

STAR Istar Reit B SBH Sally Beauty D

CACQ Caesars Acq B MDVN Medivation D

SWAY Starwd Reit-sbi B PB Prosperity Bancshs D

CSH Cash Amer Intl A GHC Graham Hldg C

BMTC Bryn Mawr Bank A BXS Bancorpsouth C

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Significant Performance for Ratings issued in the last 3 months

Upgrades Downgrades

Ticker Name Rating Performance Ticker Name Rating Performance

BEAT Biotelemetry A 32.41% RJET Rep Airways Hldgs D -66.40%

SLH Solera Holdings B 11.80% WRLD World Acceptance D -51.19%

HNNA Hennessy Advisor A 11.22% GNW Genworth Financl D -39.28%

PRO Pros Hldgs B 11.08% LOCO El Pollo Loco D -36.58%

AIZ Assurant A 7.69% LTS Ladenbg Thalmn Fin D -34.99%

Potential Investment Candidates: A selection of High Momentum Securities with young trends

Ticker Name Rating

KKR Kkr A

AFL Aflac A

COMM Commscope A

WRI Weing Rlty Reit-sbi A

SPG Simon Prp Grp Reit A

PRA Proassurance A

PPS Post Propert Reit A

KIM Kimco Realty Reit A

GXP Great Plains Energy A

FR First Ind Rt T Reit A

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Technology Current Rating Distribution:



Upgrades Downgrades Ticker Name Rating Ticker Name Rating

AGYS Agilysys A LRCX Lam Research Corp D

JBT John Bean Tech A AVT Avnet D

MLHR Herman Miller B MELI Mercadolibre D

OVTI Omnivision Tech B BRCD Brocade Comm D

PTC Ptc D

VRNT Verint Systems D

CIEN Ciena C

ENS Enersys D

CUDA Barracuda Netw D

SFLY Shutterfly D

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Upgrades Downgrades


ADEP Adept Technology A 59.75% ITG Invest Tech Grp C -42.12%

NTLS Ntelos Holdings A 47.32% IMN Imation Corp C -35.08%

SLP Simulations Plus A 44.29% LLNW Limelight Networks C -31.95%

MRVC Mrv Communications A 29.68% UNTD United Online C -30.01%

PGI Premiere Global Svc A 24.91% TNGO Tangoe D -25.22%


Ticker Name Rating

GOOG Google-c A

TECD Tech Data A

CHTR Charter Comm A

ATHN Athenahealth A

FIS Fidelity National A

CDW Cdw A

NVDA Nvidia A

INFN Infinera A

VMW Vmware A

SBAC Sba Communications A

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Consumer Goods Current Rating Distribution:



Upgrades Downgrades


LAKE Lakeland Ind Inc A MMM 3m D

TAP Molson Coors-b Nvtg B DNKN Dunkin' Brands Grp C

MATW Matthews Intl -a- C

KKD Krispy Kreme Dghnts D

SPA Sparton D

LWAY Lifeway Foods D

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Upgrades Downgrades


BGS B&g Foods A 8.09% RYAM Rayonier D -53.82%

BWLD Buffalo Wild Wings A 7.00% ACAT Arctic Cat D -56.79%

LANC Lancaster Colony A 5.89% BREW Craft Brew Alliance D -24.21%

NILE Blue Nile A 3.94% SYUT Synutra Intl C -23.76%

LAKE Lakeland Ind Inc A 3.35% GRUB Grubhub D -22.38%


Ticker Name Rating

BGS B&g Foods A

BWLD Buffalo Wild Wings A

BF.B Brown Non Vtg-b A

LANC Lancaster Colony A

GIS General Mills A

INGR Ingredion A

TSN Tyson Foods -a- A

CTB Cooper Tire&rubber A

MO Altria Group A

CLX Clorox Co. A

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Health Care Current Rating Distribution:



Upgrades Downgrades


ARQL Arqule A CSU Capital Senior Lvng D

EPRS Epirus Biopharma B EPZM Epizyme D

ELTP Elite Pharmticals B ANGO Angiodynamics D

WTW Wght Wtcher Intl B EXAM Examworks Group D

MYGN Myriad Genetics A AGEN Agenus C

CRL Charles Riv Lab Int A

ATHX Athersys B

INSY Insys Therapeut A

AERI Aerie Pharmaceut B

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Upgrades Downgrades


AXGN Axogen A 43.18% OREX Orexigen Theraputcs D -47.25%

MDGN Medgenics A 27.15% UNIS Unilife D -41.34%

TRVN Trevena A 26.69% THRX Theravance D -40.13%

IMPR Imprivata A 26.54% SPNC Spectranetics D -39.59%

ADPT Adeptus Health A 20.52% SQNM Sequenom D -32.27%


Ticker Name Rating

INCY Incyte A

IDXX Idexx Labs A

STJ St Jude Medical Inc A

MYGN Myriad Genetics A

ALGN Align Technology A

OMI Owens & Minor A

CRL Charles Riv Lab Int A

ABBV Abbvie A

INSY Insys Therapeut A

BAX Baxter Internationa A

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To learn more about how the Trendrating Momentum Model can help portfolio managers spot market reversals and participate in positive trends longer, please contact us at [email protected]

The evaluations, rankings and information provided by Trendrating (the "Services") are provided solely for the use of finance professionals (the "Users") who, by nature of their status as investment professions understand, or are expected to understand, the complexity of finance products, the functioning of the markets and the risks inherent in them. The Services are not offered for use by persons not employed or actively working as professionals in the finance and investment industry. The Services are to be used entirely at the risk of the Users. Included in the Services are forward-looking statements that are based on observations, assumptions and calculations that reflect Trendrating's expectations. Forward-looking statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to materially differ from those expectations. The Services are not intended to constitute a recommendation of any specific security or financial product and are to be implemented solely in conjunction with or as part of a complete investment evaluation conducted by the Users. Under no circumstances shall Trendrating, its officers, directors, employees or agents be liable for any damages, lost profits or investment losses that result in any way from use of the Services.

Trendrating S.A. © 2013-2015. All rights reserved.

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Trendrating Momentum Analytics: US Report · performance and financial success come from discipline...

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