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Trend of Next Generation/Zero Emission Vehicle and Policy ... · 25 燃費平均値(実績...
Transcript of Trend of Next Generation/Zero Emission Vehicle and Policy ... · 25 燃費平均値(実績...
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Trend of Next Generation/Zero Emission Vehicle and Policy in Japan
METI, Japan2018. Apr.
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1.CO2 Emission and Energy Consumption of Transportation Sector in Japan
2.Policy Target and Concept
3.Policy for Improving Entire Fuel Economy
4.Policy Support for Penetration of ZEV
5.Next Step
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Reducing CO2 emission from transportation sector is essential for achieving Japan’s INDC
CO2 total discharge1,150million(t)
2015(FY)
Transportationsector
(vehicle,ship etc.)217 million(t)
Industrial section435 million(t)
Operation section231 million(t)
Home section184million(t)
Others82 million(t)
CO2 emission (2015)
Source: Joint Meeting (METI’s committee and MOE’S council)(2018)
CO2 emission Million (t)
OthersFreight car/ BusPassenger car
Source:METI (ANRE)Joint council’s material by METI and MLIT
Transportation sector contributes to entire CO2 emission by 19% in Japan.
It is planned to be reduced by 25% in 2030. Comprehensive measures including ambitious fuel emission economy standard is needed.
Trend of CO2 emission in transportation sector
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Source:METI (ANRE)Joint council’s material by METI and MLIT
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Crude oil equivalent (Million kL) (year-to-comparison)
Half of energy consumption is from commercial vehicle.
Consumption from passenger car started decreasing after 2001.
(Reference) Trend of Energy Consumption in Transportation sector
OthersFreight car/ BusPassenger car
OthersFreight car/ BusPassenger car
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100
80
60
40
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1.CO2 Emission and Energy Consumption of Transportation Sector in Japan
2.Policy Target and Concept
3.Policy for Improving Entire Fuel Economy
4.Policy Support for Penetration of ZEV
5.Next Step
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Even in 2DS scenario, 91% of automobiles are with combustion engine in the world in 2030. Balanced policy mix of improving entire fuel economy and policy support for penetration of ZEV is important.
For promoting OEMs’ effort for developing technologies based on each OEMs’ strength, technological neutrality is important. Mandating specific % of EV sales or supply could harm innovation and consumer benefit.
Balanced Policy Mix and Technological Neutrality are Important for Reducing entire CO2
Policy support for penetration of ZEV(Infrastructure, early stage financial incentive etc.)
Improving entire fuel economy
(CAFÉ approach)
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• Source:IEA 「ETP(Energy Technology Perspectives) 2017」
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(Hundred million units)
Sales quantity
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“Well to wheel” emission differs among countries with different generation mix.
For reducing “well to wheel” emission, energy policy for promoting zero emission power generation is needed.
In order for consumer to choose based on “well to wheel” emission, how to express fuel economy needs to be discussed.
Source: Global IEA EV Outlook 2017
Reducing “Well to Wheel” Emission
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Japan set ambitious policy target of next generation cars’ penetration in 2030.
※These are not regulatory requirement for car makers.
While HEV has achieved target successfully already, achieving EV/PHV target of 20-30% and FCV target is a big challenge. Strong policy initiative is needed.
2017 2030
Conventional cars 63.97% 30~50%
Next generation cars 36.02% 50~70%
HEV 31.2% 30~40%
EVPHV
0.41%0.82% 20~30%
Fuel Cell Vehicle 0.02% ~3%
Clean Diezel Vehicle 3.52% 5~10%
EV・PHV stocks target• 1 Million EV/PHV stocks by 2020
「EV・PHV Roadmap 」(Mar, 23rd, 2016, )
【Sources】Next Generation Vehicle Strategy 2010
Automotive Industry Strategy 2014
«Reference» New car passenger car unit sales: 4.386 million (2017)
「Hydrogen / Fuel Cell Strategy Roadmap (March 22, 2016」
FCV stocks target• Spread of about 40 thousand FCVs by 2020, about
200 thousand ones by 2025, about 800 thousand ones by 2030."」
Dissemination policy of Hydrogen infrastructure • About 160 places" by 2020 and "320 places" by
2025 will be installed.
Japan Set Ambitious Policy Target in 2030
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By achieving 2030 target, energy consumption from transportation sector will be cut by 26% in Japan
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HV29%
EV・PHV16%
FCV1%
CDV4%
Gasoline etc50%
Crude oil equivalent (Million kL)
Prospect of Each car category’s stock ratio in 2030(FY)
Prospect of Supply and Demand of Energy
Source:relevant material of [Long-term Prospect of Supply and Demand of Energy]
By achieving 2030 target of next generation cars, half of automobiles in Japan will be replaced by next generation cars in 2030.
Energy consumption from transportation will be reduced by 26% in 2030.
Industrial
Operation
Home
Transportation
Source: Joint council’s material by METI and MLIT
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(Reference) Next Generation car’s sale quantity(units)
Sources:METI made based on JAMA’s dateJoint council’s material by METI and MLIT
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Sale of next generation vehicle increased steadily after “Next Generation Vehicle Strategy” was formulated in 2010 lead by steady increase of HEV sales.
11.0%12.0%
16.4%
21.2%23.2%
25.6%
32.3%
35.6%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2009年度 2010年度 2011年度 2012年度 2013年度 2014年度 2015年度 2016年度
次世代自動車販売台数ハイブリッド自動車(HV)
電気自動車(EV)
プラグイン・ハイブリッド自動車(PHV)
燃料電池自動車(FCV)
クリーンディーゼル自動車(CDV)
次世代自動車比率
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
Next Generation car’s sale units
Ratio of Next Generation Car
(%)
2009(FY) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
(Million Units)
HV
CDV
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1.CO2 Emission and Energy Consumption of Transportation Sector in Japan
2.Policy Target and Concept
3.Policy for Improving Entire Fuel Economy
4.Policy Support for Penetration of ZEV
5.Next Step
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Fuel Economy regulation in Japan: CAFÉ, Top Runner Approach
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Setting Target Standard and Target Achievement Evaluation(2020’s regulation)
Achieved if CAFE (weighted average according to the sales volume) exceeds the Target standard.
Five out of tenTarget standard
Ener
gy C
onsu
mpt
ion
Econ
omy
(Fu
el E
cono
my)
Conventional AConventional BConventional CConventional DConventional E…
Setting Target Standard(in each weight category)
Target Achievement Evaluation(Calculate each companies’ CAFÉ)
Five out of ten
Target standard is determined for the unified category in expectation
HEV AHEV BHEV CHEV DHEV E…
…HEVHEVHEV
ConventionalConventionalConventional Conventional
A社
Highest Energy Economy
Highest EE
Accumulation of technology
Accumulation of technology
Japan has a fuel economy regulation based on Act on the Rational Use of Energy.
:Top runner approach, CAFÉ regulation
Source: Joint council’s material by METI and MLIT
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Japan ‘s fuel economy has improved steadily and it has already achieved 2020 target (20.3km/l which is equivalent to CO2 emission of 122g/km).
Post 2020 fuel economy standard is under discussion in Japan since March 6th 2018.
Post 2020 Fuel Economy Standard is under discussion in Japan
Trend of each country’s CO2(FE) regulation
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
230
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Standard valueperformance
20年:122g/km*2
22年:113g/km*2
20年:117g/km*2
25年:97g/km*2
25年:(81g/km*1,2)
g/km)
17.8
19.4
21.0
21.7 21.6
(速報値)
21.9
12.112.4
12.9 13.213.5
14.014.6 14.7
15.0 15.115.5 15.7
16.5
17.818.3
19.5
21.1
22.5
23.8
20.3
16.8
13.0
10
15
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25燃費平均値(実績 JC08モード)
燃費平均値(実績 10・15モード)
燃費基準(JC08)
燃費基準(10・15)
Trend of fuel economy(FE) standardand FE performance
Source:Based on MLIT’s dataJoint council’s material by METI and MLIT
※Trend is based on only gasoline cars
(km/)
Average FE (Performance:JC08)
Average FE(Performance:10・15)
Target standard value (10・15)
Target standard value (JC08)
Based on NEDC mode.*1:Calculated based 15% reduction compared to 2021`s (95g/km)*2: Performance by 2014 In Japan and U.S.A, Performance by 2015 In China, India, and EU. Source:The International Council On Clean Transportation 「CO2 emissions from new passengercars in the EU: Car manufacturers’ performance in 2016」
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1.CO2 Emission and Energy Consumption of Transportation Sector in Japan
2.Policy Target and Concept
3.Policy for Improving Entire Fuel Economy
4.Policy Support for Penetration of ZEV
5.Next Step
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EV・PHV (units) Public Charger (units)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
020,00040,00060,00080,000
100,000120,000140,000160,000180,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
EV PHV Public charger27,835
165,516
Subsidy scheme and trend of EV/PHV and Public chargers
Subsidy scheme for car purchase Subsidy scheme for charger installation
Subsidy for buying next generation vehicle and for installing infrastructure and Tax incentive (next page) are main policy tools for supporting penetration of ZEV.
$10
$2000
i.g,$4,000 for Leaf
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Graph1
201220122012
201320132013
201420142014
201520152015
201620162016
Public charger
EV
PHV
5907
33707
16920
7366
49301
29892
8915
64938
44606
12599
78852
59603
27835
92066
73450
充電器数
急速・普通充電器の基数について キュウソクフツウジュウデンキキスウ
(単位:基) タンイモトイ
20122013201420152016
急速 キュウソク1,1531,6742,0974,8607,108
普通 フツウ4,7545,6926,8187,73920,727
Public charger5,9077,3668,91512,59927,835
(単位:台) タンイダイ
20122013201420152016
EV累積販売台数 ルイセキハンバイダイスウ33,70749,30164,93878,85292,066
PHV累積販売台数 ルイセキハンバイダイスウ16,92029,89244,60659,60373,450
充電器数
Public charger
EV
PHV
201703_都道府県別
2016年3月末時点 充電器件数 ジテンジュウデンキケンスウ
都道府県コード都道府県急速 キュウソク普通 フツウ
1北海道281885
2青森県79266
3岩手県119278
4宮城県129362
5秋田県97188
6山形県96237
7福島県193246
8茨城県185508
9栃木県153263
10群馬県185374
11埼玉県3461,118
12千葉県2821,444
13東京都2772,220
14神奈川県4061,450
15新潟県175458
16富山県90163
17石川県100351
18福井県77211
19山梨県69251
20長野県165528
21岐阜県154362
22静岡県226658
23愛知県3331,150
24三重県142272
25滋賀県114196
26京都府148415
27大阪府1801,068
28兵庫県272852
29奈良県74171
30和歌山県79194
31鳥取県74112
32島根県7547
33岡山県131171
34広島県130327
35山口県137255
36徳島県52118
37香川県61120
38愛媛県109140
39高知県78104
40福岡県278537
41佐賀県96145
42長崎県84180
43熊本県205414
44大分県88208
45宮崎県97181
46鹿児島県130277
47沖縄県57252
総計7,10820,727
CMキャプチャー画像
Sheet1
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Financial support (Tax reduction)
Object/Requirement Tax Special measurement
EV,FCV,PHVCNG(Achieved 2018’s regulation or 2009’s regulation(10% NOx))CD(Achieved 2009’s or 2018’s regulation)
Automobile Acquisition Tax No Tax
Automobile Weight Tax (New car inspection,Continuedinspection)
Tax Exemption
FE performance(→)Emission performance(↓)
2015 FE standard 2020 FE standard
Achieved +5% +10%
Achieved
+10%
+20%
+30%
+40%
Gasoline(includeHEV),LPG
50% reduction to 2018’s regulationor75% reduction to 2005’s regulation
Automobile acquisitiontax
20%reduction
20%reduction
40%reduction
60%reduction
No Tax
Automobile Weight Tax
New car inspection
25%reduction
50%reduction
75%reduction
Tax Exemption
Continued inspection
Tax Exemption
2017
FE:fuel economySource: Joint council’s material by METI and MLIT 16
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Present400km(200Wh/kg)
800 km(400Wh/kg)Target by 2025(All Solid State LIB)
EVs Travel range(Energy Density)
1000 km (500Wh/kg)Target after 2030(Innovative battery)
Promoting Battery R&D Projects
All Solid State LIB2018 - 2022
FY 2018 budget: JPY 1.6 billion (US$ 16 million)Responsible Organization: LIBTEC(Lithium IonBattery Technology and Evaluation Center) etc
For improving battery performance, the government supports R&D projects of next generation battery.
RISING22016 - 2020
FY 2018 budget: JPY 3.1 billion (US$ 31 million)Responsible organization: Kyoto University, AIST(※), Automotive companies, Battery Companies, Other Universities etc.
※National institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology
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Formulating reuse and recycle system is important for utilizing battery’s value and conserving raw materials.
Automobile companies in Japan formulated voluntary collecting system about (NiMH and Li) battery.
Key factors:
1. Efficient collection and transportation scheme
2. Standardized evaluation of remaining battery capacity
Reuse and Recycle of Batteries
Collection Operators Dismantling Operators
Special Forwarding Agents
Car Owner(End of Life)
Battery
BatteryRecycling Plants(Recycle, Reuse, and Rebuild)
Export oversea(used car)
Selling to Material operators
Current system
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V2G would increase value of EV batteries.
NEDO conducted field test of utilizing EV’s battery for providing ancillary service to the grid transmitting electricity from solar in Maui Island, Hawaii.
V2G
Period : 2011 Oct - 2017 FebPlace: Maui County, USAParticipants : 320 peoplePractitioner : HITACHI, NISSAN etcBudget : ¥6.4billion(≒ US$60 million)Charger(DC) : CHAdeMO protocolMax voltage(DC) : 150~450VResult : This system shifts EV charging
peak to the time when more renewables are expected available.
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Basic Hydrogen Strategy (key points)(Dec.26th,2017)
①②Main action as supply side ③Main action as user side
○ Vision with a view to 2050 + action plan up to 2030○ Hydrogen as a New Energy Option Along with Renewable Energy⇒ Leading the world‘s carbon free development with Japan's advanced hydrogen technology ○ Target: Realizing the same cost as gasoline and LNG
(Current: $ 1/Nm3⇒ $0.3/kg by 2030 ⇒ $0.2/kg by 2050)
○Mass importation by developing an international supply chain Promote the development of brown coal hydrogen
production and mass transport technology of hydrogen by international hydrogen transport project between Japan Australia / Brunei, aiming for commercialization around '30.
○ Commercialization of hydrogen power generation · Mass consumption Promoting demonstration and technology development towards
commercialization around 2030, such as the world's first hydrogen electric power plant (Kobe) commenced demonstration operation from the beginning of the year.
○Make maximun use of local renewable energy Toward the hydrogen base of Fukushima (Namie
Town), pioneering the future utilization of surplus renewable energy through demonstration of the world's largest renewable hydrogen production. Hydrogen from Fukushima is also used in Olympic games in 2020.
○Produce massive amount of hydrogen from cheap material
Utilizing brown coal(less than 1/10th of coal) and oversee renewable energy (about 1/10th of domestic’s)
① Make it cheap(=utilize overseas brown coal, surplus renewable energy etc)② Developing supply chain for mass production and transportation③ Mass usage(Automobile ⇒ Power Generation ⇒ industry)
【supply sides】
【user side】・・・
<3 elements for reducing H2 cost>
○ Accelerate dissemination of FCV/FC bus/hydrogen station ‘Toward self-sustainable business regarding FCV in the latter
half of the 2020s,① Low cost technology development (reduce Station cost by half by 2020),② Regulatory reform (realization of station unattended, etc.),③ Advance strategic improvement of the station (a new company established this spring is accelerating development) Horizontal deployment of hydrogen utilization not only for FCV
but also for buses, forklift trucks, trucks, ships, etc
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Support HRS installations and promote creating new FCV demand.
Installation Fuel Cell
Phase 1H2 Power Plant/
Mass Supply Chain
Phase 2CO2-free Hydrogen
Phase 3
Focus on implementation from the present Realized in the late 2020s Realized in around 2040
Disseminate stationary FCs Disseminate FCVs
Subsidies for Stationary FCs [8.9 billion yen]
Promote the accelerated introduction and cost reduction of Ene-farm.From FY 2017, support for stationary FC for business and industrial use is added .
Subsidies for HRSs[5.7 billion yen]
Support for FCVs[Included in 15 billion yen]
R&D of FCs[2.9 billion yen]Conduct R&D for better performance and lower costs of FCs, and demonstrate stationary FCs for business use
Stationary FC for business use
R&D of FC, etc.
Develop technologies forlower costs and safety of HRSs, and collect data for reviewing regulations.
Build a H2 supply chain
Demonstrate how hydrogen can be produced from untapped overseas energy resources, transported in the form of liquefied hydrogen or organic hydride, and used to generate power. Implement P2G field tests, etc.
R&D of H2 production, transport and storage
R&D for producing, transporting and storing H2 derived from renewable energy
[0.9 billion yen]Develop technologies of high efficiency water electrolysis units, tanks for storing liquefied hydrogen, etc. with the use of renewable energy sources.
R&D of HRSs[2.4 billion yen]
Demonstrations for global H2 supply chain 9.4 billion yen]
Budget for Hydrogen and Fuel Cells in FY 2018
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1.CO2 Emission and Energy Consumption of Transportation Sector in Japan
2.Policy Target and Concept
3.Policy for Improving Entire Fuel Economy
4.Policy Support for Penetration of ZEV
5.Next Step
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Automobile Strategic Committee
• Minister Seko (Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry) started “Automobile Strategic Committee” on 18th April to set Japan’s automobile industry’s strategy for solving global issues related to mobility.
• Issues to be discussed:Strategic action toward “CASE”Promoting innovation of battery industryPromoting electrified vehiclesEcosystem of batteryIntegration of automobile policy and energy policyTransforming automobile supply chainDigitalization and standardization of car development
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Committee MembersOEM: CEO of Toyota, Honda, Nissan, MazdaSupplier: CEO of Akebono brakeScientist: Zempachi Oguimi Professor Kyoto University, etcInvestor: Hiromichi Mizuno Board Menber of PRI, United Nationsn
Gen Isayama General Partner & CEO etc.
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EVS31• The Electric Vehicle Symposium & Exhibition (EVS) is the world's largest
international exhibition and symposium for all fields related to Electric Vehicle (EV), such as battery electric vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles (HEV) and fuel cell vehicles (FCV).
Venue Kobe Convention Center, Kobe, Japan Kobe International Conference Center / Kobe International Exhibition Hall
Date September 30 - October 3, 2018 (4 days) Multilateral policy dialog on September 30th, 3:00PM – 5:00PM
Hosted by
Japan Automobile Research Institute (JARI)
Cooperation with
Society of Automotive Engineers of Japan (JSAE) World Electric Vehicle Association (WEVA) Electric Vehicle Association of Asia Pacific (EVAAP)
Supported by
Ministry of Economy Trade and Industry Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism Ministry of the Environment Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association (JAMA) , etc.
Contents a) Plenary session Opening & Closing ceremony, Keynote speeches, Panel discussion b) Technical Session (Oral and Dialogue session) held as EVTeC 2018* in conjunction with JSAE c) Exhibition & Ride-&-Drive d) Technical tour e) Welcome reception, Gala
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Trend of Next Generation/Zero Emission Vehicle and Policy in Japanスライド番号 2スライド番号 3運輸部門のエネルギー消費の推移スライド番号 5スライド番号 6スライド番号 7スライド番号 8By achieving 2030 target, energy consumption from transportation sector will be cut by 26% in Japan(Reference) Next Generation car’s sale quantity(units)スライド番号 11Fuel Economy regulation in Japan: CAFÉ, Top Runner Approach 審議会のp22右スライド番号 14スライド番号 15スライド番号 16スライド番号 17スライド番号 18スライド番号 19Basic Hydrogen Strategy (key points)(Dec.26th,2017)スライド番号 21スライド番号 22スライド番号 23EVS31