Trend Analysis TAMIL NADU · 2019-07-16 · Economy-wide Emission Estimates AFOLU Emissions of...
Transcript of Trend Analysis TAMIL NADU · 2019-07-16 · Economy-wide Emission Estimates AFOLU Emissions of...
GHG Pla�orm India is a civil society ini�a�ve providing an independent es�ma�on and analysis of India's Greenhouse
Gas (GHG) emissions across key sectors, namely- Energy, Industrial Processes and Product Use (IPPU), Agriculture,
Forestry & Other Land Use (AFOLU) and Waste.
The Pla�orm seeks to add value to the various ongoing GHG emission es�ma�on efforts by helping address exis�ng
data gaps and data accessibility issues, extending beyond the scope of na�onal inventories to state inventories, and by
increasing the volume of analy�cs and policy dialogue on India's GHG emissions sources, profile, and related policies.
The ini�a�ve es�mates and assesses GHG emissions and removals from the following sectors:
*Fuel combusted for Cap�ve Electricity Genera�on (Auto-Producers) has been reported under Energy sector.
Analysis of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from 2005 to 2013
Trend Analysisof GHG Emissions in
TAMIL NADU
Tamil Nadu at a glance (2013)
ENERGY AFOLUIPPU* WASTE
5.94%Popula�on
4.06%Net GHG Emissions
Per Capita Emissions
1.32tCO₂e
(Tamil Nadu)
1.93 tCO₂e(India)
Forest Area
20%(Of Tamil Nadu‘s
Total Area)
3.75%(Of India’s
Forest Area)
555 Persons/Sq.Km
(Tamil Nadu)
382 Persons/Sq.Km
(India)
Popula�on Density
3.96%
8.60%GDP
Area
Economy-wide Emission Estimates
Emissions of Tamil Nadu declined at an overall rate of 1.58% (compounded annually) from 111.7
MtCO2e in 2005 to 98.3 MtCO2e in 20131. The Energy sector remained the major contributor of the
total emissions across all the reference years. In 2011, the AFOLU sector became a net sink owing to
increased removals from the Land sub-sector as shown in Figure 1 above. In 2005, the Energy sector
had the maximum share of ~81% in the total emissions of Tamil Nadu. The remaining ~19% emissions
resulted from the combination of the AFOLU (~8%), Waste (~6%) and IPPU (~5%) sectors. In 2013, if
emissions were considered without taking removals from the AFOLU sector into account, the Energy
sector represented ~87% of the total Energy emissions while the IPPU and Waste sectors had a share
of ~8% and ~6% respectively as illustrated in Figure 2 below.
Figure 2: Sector-wise Contribution to Economy-wide GHG Emissions of Tamil Nadu
(Excluding AFOLU in 2013)
2005 2013
1 Calendar year values have been considered for this analysis. For Global Warming Potential (GWP) calculations IPCC-ARII
values have been considered.
111.7 106.2 114.4 118.4
126.9 130.0
92.4 96.9 98.3
-60.0
-40.0
-20.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Emis
sio
n E
stim
ates
(M
tCO
2e)
Figure 1: GHG Emission Estimates for Tamil Nadu (2005 to 2013)
AFOLU Energy IPPU Waste Grand Total
8%
81%
5%6%
87%
8%
6%
Energy
IPPU
AFOLU
Waste
The per capita emissions of Tamil Nadu declined at a rate of 2.97% from 1.68 tCO2e in 2005 to 1.32
tCO2e in 2013. When compared to India, the per capita emissions of Tamil Nadu were found to be
slightly higher than that of the country till 2010. In 2011, an abrupt decline was observed in the per
capita emissions owing to increased removals from the AFOLU sector, leading to lower per capita
emissions of Tamil Nadu than that of India till the year 2013 as show in Figure 3 above.
GHG emissions from the IPPU sector recorded the highest CAGR2 of 6.82% from 2005 to 2013.
Between 2005 and 2010, the emissions from the AFOLU sector declined at a compounded rate of
1.34%. Subsequently, the AFOLU removals from 2011 onwards increased at a rate of 2.72% as shown
in Figure 4 above. The observed CAGR of the Energy and Waste sectors were 3.06% and 2.24%
respectively from 2005 to 2013. When compared to India, only the IPPU sector registered a higher
growth rate of GHG emissions in Tamil Nadu from 2005 to 2013.
2 Compound Annual Growth Rate
1.681.58 1.68 1.71 1.81 1.83
1.28 1.32 1.321.40 1.42 1.491.59 1.65
1.75
1.80 1.88 1.93
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Per
Cap
ita
Emis
sio
n E
stim
ates
(tC
O2e
)
Figure 3: Per Capita GHG Emissions for Tamil Nadu and India (2005 to 2013)
AFOLU Energy IPPU Waste Tamil Nadu India
6.80%
3.06%
5.94%
6.82%
-1.95%
-1.34%
2.72%
3.90%
2.24%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
India Tamil Nadu
CA
GR
(%
)
Figure 4: Sector-wise GHG Emissions Growth Ratefrom 2005 to 2013
These growth rates have been compounded annually.
Energy IPPU AFOLU Emissions AFOLU Emissions (2005-2010) AFOLU Removals (2011-2013) Waste
Energy Sector The Energy sector represented ~87% of the total emissions (if values are considered excluding AFOLU
sector) of Tamil Nadu in 2013. In general, emissions from the Energy sector arise from two main sub-
sectors – Fuel Combustion (Public Electricity Generation, Transport, Industries and Agriculture,
Commercial and Residential categories) and Fugitive. In 2013, nearly 99% emissions were from the
Fuel Combustion sub-sector, while only ~1% emissions were Fugitive. Emissions from the Energy
sector grew at a CAGR of 3.06% from 90.1 MtCO2e in 2005 to 114.7 MtCO2e in 2013.
Within the Energy sector, Public Electricity Generation was a major contributor (~50%) of emissions in
Tamil Nadu followed by the Industries (~23%) and Transport categories (~18%) respectively in 2013.
Notably, the hierarchy in the share of emissions followed the same trend throughout the reference
period. Deep diving into the Public Electricity Generation category, Coal-based Thermal Power Plants
contributed the most to the GHG emissions of this category with an average share of nearly 52% across
the reference years followed by emissions from Lignite (~40%) and Natural Gas (~5%) respectively as
illustrated in the Figure 6 below.
90.1 83.4
90.5 94.0 101.9 105.0 108.4
113.7 114.7
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Emis
sio
n E
stim
ates
(M
tCO
2e)
Figure 5: GHG Emission Estimates for Energy Sector in Tamil Nadu (2005 to 2013)
Industries Residential Fugitive Emissions
Others Transport Public Electricity Generation
Grand Total
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
% S
har
e in
To
tal P
ub
lic E
lect
rici
ty G
ener
atio
n
Emis
sio
ns
Figure 6: Share of GHG Emissions from Public Electricity Generation (2005 to 2013)
Coal Others Lignite Natural gas
IPPU Sector The IPPU sector represented ~8% of the total GHG emissions (if values were considered excluding
AFOLU sector) in Tamil Nadu in 2013. Between 2005 and 2013, the overall IPPU emissions grew at a
CAGR of 6.82% from 6.03 MtCO2e in 2005 to 10.22 MtCO2e in 2013. Emissions from IPPU sector were
primarily driven by emissions from the Chemical Industries which grew at a CAGR of 6.54% from 5.67
MtCO2e in 2005 to 9.42 MtCO2e in 2013 as depicted in Figure 7 below.
A detailed trend of GHG emissions by various IPPU Categories is depicted in the Figure 8 below.
Cement Production was the key driver of emissions across all the years, with an average share of ~93%
throughout the reference years.
6.036.55
7.418.13
9.169.62 9.31 9.60
10.22
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Emis
sio
n E
stim
ates
(M
tCO
2e)
Figure 7: GHG Emission Estimates for IPPU Sector in Tamil Nadu (2005 to 2013)
Non-Energy Products from Fuels and Solvent Use Metal Industry
Chemical Industry Mineral Industry
IPPU Total
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
% S
har
e in
To
tal I
PP
U E
mis
sio
ns
Figure 8: Share of GHG Emissions from IPPU Categories (2005 to 2013)
Cement Production Others
AFOLU Sector The AFOLU sector in Tamil Nadu absorbed 34.02 MtCO2e of GHG emissions in 2013. Emissions from
the AFOLU sector arise from three main sub-sectors namely Livestock, Land and Aggregate Sources
and Non-CO2 Emissions Sources on Land. Notably, the AFOLU sector was a net emitter till 2010, but
2011 onwards, it became a net sink due to increased removals from the Land sub-sector. Net
emissions from this sector declined at a rate of 1.34% from 9.30 MtCO2e in 2005 to 8.69 MtCO2e in
2010. Whereas, from 2011 onwards net removals grew at a CAGR of 2.72% from 32.24 MtCO2e in 2005
to 34.02 MtCO2e in 2013 as depicted in Figure 9 below.
Notably, Livestock was a major emitter of GHG emissions in the AFOLU sector throughout the
reference period. Under the Livestock sub-sector, Enteric Fermentation (~55%) contributed the most
to the AFOLU emissions if values were considered excluding the Land sub-sector in 2013. However,
the contribution of emissions from this category declined at a rate of 3.21% (compounded annually)
from 8.99 MtCO2e in 2005 to 6.93 MtCO2e in 2013. Emissions due to Rice Cultivation was the second
major contributor of GHG emissions with a share of ~24% in 2013 as depicted in Figure 10 below.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
% S
har
e in
To
tal A
FOLU
Em
issi
on
s
Figure 10: Share of GHG Emissions from AFOLU Sub-sectors (Excluding Land)
Enteric Fermentation Manure Management Agriculture Soils
Biomass Burning in Cropland Biomass Burning in Forest Land Rice Cultivation
9.30 9.89 10.07 9.83 9.17 8.69
-32.24 -33.62 -34.02
-50.0
-40.0
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Emis
sio
n E
stim
ates
(M
tCO
2e)
Figure 9: GHG Emission Estimates for AFOLU Sector in Tamil Nadu (2005 to 2013)
Aggregate Sources and Non-CO2 Emission Sources on Land Land Livestock AFOLU Total
Waste Sector The Waste sector contributed to almost 6% of total emissions (if values were considered excluding the AFOLU sector) in Tamil Nadu in 2013. Municipal Solid Waste3, Domestic Wastewater and Industrial Wastewater are the key sources of GHG emissions in the Waste sector. GHG emissions from Waste grew at a CAGR of 2.24% from 6.25 MtCO2e in 2005 to 7.46 MtCO2e in 2013. A spike in emissions in 2011 was observed which can be attributed to higher Domestic wastewater emissions, which reflects changing trends in use of various treatment systems as reported in Census of India 2011.
Domestic Wastewater had a share of ~48% in the total emissions from the Waste sector in 2013 (Figure 12). Tamil Nadu’s emissions from Domestic Wastewater grew at a CAGR of 3.04% from 2.85 MtCO2e in 2005 to 3.62 MtCO2e in 2013. In 2013, almost 54% of Domestic Wastewater emissions emanated from the urban areas of Tamil Nadu. Discharge of untreated wastewater and use of septic tanks are key drivers of emissions in this sub-sector.
Industrial Wastewater comprised ~36% of the Waste sector emissions in 2013. Emissions from this sub-sector grew at a rate of 0.29% (compounded annually) from 2.60 MtCO2e in 2005 to 2.66 MtCO2e in 2013. In 2013, ~92% of the Industrial Wastewater emissions were from the Pulp and Paper Industries and the remaining ~8% share corresponded to the combined emissions of Meat (~4%), Dairy (~3%) and Tannery (~1%) Industries. Municipal Solid Waste Disposal represented ~16% of the Waste sector emissions in 2013. The emissions from this sub-sector grew at an estimated CAGR of 5% from 0.80 MtCO2e in 2005 to 1.18 MtCO2e in 2013.
3 'Refers to emission in urban areas. Emissions from Municipal Solid Waste Disposal in rural areas are not considered, as
disposal predominantly occurs in a dispersed manner and does not generate significant CH4 emissions'
3% 1% 4%
92%
1%
Figure 13: Share of Emissions from Industrial Wastewater Categories (in 2013)
Dairy
Fertilizers
Meat
Pulp & Paper
Tannery
48%
36%
16%
Figure 12: Category-wise Share of GHG Emissions for Waste Sector (in 2013)
Domestic Wastewater
Industrial Wastewater
Municipal Solid Waste Disposal
6.25 6.30 6.40 6.46 6.61 6.71 7.01 7.23 7.46
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Emis
sio
n E
stim
ates
(M
tCO
2e)
Figure 11: GHG Emission Estimates for Waste Sector in Tamil Nadu (2005 to 2013)
Domestic Wastewater Industrial Wastewater Municipal Solid Waste Disposal Grand Total
This document has been compiled and analysed by Vasudha Founda�on. All informa�on men�oned in this document is sourced from GHG Pla�orm India. To download this document and to know more about the Pla�orm, please visit www.ghgpla�orm-india.org or write to info@ghgpla�orm-india.org
The Pla�orm comprises of the following civil society:
The GHG Pla�orm India is a civil society ini�a�ve providing an independent es�ma�on and analysis of India's Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions across key sectors, namely- Energy, IPPU, AFOLU and Waste.
The Interna�onal Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) is the global leader in agricultural research for development in wheat and maize-based farming systems.
Shak� Sustainable Energy Founda�on works to strengthen the energy security of the country by aiding the design and implementa�on of policies that encourage energy efficiency, renewable energy and sustainable transport solu�ons.
Vasudha Founda�on, set up in 2010, is a not for profit organisa�on, working in the clean energy and climate policy space.
ICLEI - Local Governments for Sustainability is a leading global network of over 1,500 ci�es, towns and regions commi�ed to building a sustainable future.
WRI-India is a research organiza�on that turns big ideas into ac�on at the nexus of environment, economic opportunity and human well-being.
Center for Study of Science, Technology and Policy (CSTEP) is a not for profit research organisa�on incorporated in 2005 u/s 25 of The Companies Act, 1956.
The is one of South Asia's leading not-for-profit policy research Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW)ins�tu�ons. It uses data, integrated analysis and strategic outreach to explain – and change – the use, reuse, and misuse of resources.
Secretariat Contact
Vasudha Founda�on, CISRS House, 14 Jangpura B,
Mathura Road, New Delhi - 110014, India
Phone No. - 011-24372680
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