Measuring Market Liquidity and Liquidity Mismatches across ...
Treasury Strategies’ Quarterly Corporate Cash Briefing for ......A Division of Novantas, Inc....
Transcript of Treasury Strategies’ Quarterly Corporate Cash Briefing for ......A Division of Novantas, Inc....
© 2016 Treasury Strategies, A Division of Novantas, Inc.
A Division of Novantas, Inc.
Treasury Strategies’ Quarterly Corporate Cash Briefing™ for 3Q 2016
Treasury Strategies’ Speakers & Panel Moderators • Tony Carfang • Kevin Ruiz
Panel Participants & Institutional Partners • Steve Baseby, Association of Corporate Treasurers• Deborah Cunningham, Federated Investors • Roger Merritt, Fitch Ratings• Brett Friedman, Novantas
July 14, 2016
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Agenda
Corporate Cash Levels
Proposed IRS 385 Reform
Disruptors - Panelist Discussion • Money Market Fund Reform• Beyond Brexit• Longer-Term Country/Political Risk
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Corporate Cash Levels
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0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
Corp
orat
e Ca
sh (£
T)
0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6
Corp
orat
e Ca
sh (€
T)
4
Corporate Cash Levels
Source: European Central Bank, Treasury Strategies
£0.61T
Source: Bank of Japan, Treasury Strategies
Japanese Corporate Cash
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
Corp
orat
e Ca
sh ($
T)
UK Corporate CashUS Corporate Cash
Eurozone Corporate Cash
Source: Federal Reserve, Treasury Strategies
$1.89T
Source: UK Office for National Statistics, Treasury Strategies
€2.4T
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
Corp
orat
e Ca
sh (¥
T)
¥272T
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0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
Corp
orat
e Ca
sh (£
T)
0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6
Corp
orat
e Ca
sh (€
T)
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Corporate Cash Levels
Source: European Central Bank, Treasury Strategies
£0.61T
Source: Bank of Japan, Treasury Strategies
Japanese Corporate Cash
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
Corp
orat
e Ca
sh ($
T)
UK Corporate CashUS Corporate Cash
Eurozone Corporate Cash
Source: Federal Reserve, Treasury Strategies
$1.89T
Source: UK Office for National Statistics, Treasury Strategies
€2.4T
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
Corp
orat
e Ca
sh (¥
T)
¥272T
R2 = 0.94Slope = $16B/$T
R2 = 0.99Slope = €5.72B/€T
R2 = 0.97
Slope = £23.11B/£T
R2 = 0.78
Slope = ¥1.35B/¥T
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Country/Region December 2000 March 2016
United States 9% 10%
Eurozone 15% 23%
United Kingdom 24% 33%
Japan 37% 55%
Source: Treasury Strategies’ estimate
Corporate Cash as % GDP by Region
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R² = 0.17
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
460.0 470.0 480.0 490.0 500.0 510.0 520.0Japa
n Co
rpor
ate
Cash
(¥T)
Japan GDP (¥T)
Japan Corporate Cash Relative to Japan Nominal GDP
R² = 0.95
0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6
6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0
EU C
orpo
rate
Cas
h (€
T)
EU GDP ( €T)
EU Corporate Cash Relative to EU Nominal GDP
R² = 0.94
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 20.0
US C
orpo
rate
Cas
h ($
T)
US GDP ($T)
US Corporate Cash Relative to US Nominal GDP
Corporate Cash Relative to Nominal GDP
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Slope = $122B/$T
Slope = €392B/€T
Slope = -¥630B/¥T
R² = 0.98
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0
UK C
orpo
rate
Cas
h (£
T)
UK GDP ( £T)
UK Corporate Cash Relative to UK Nominal GDP
Slope = £428B/£T
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0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Bank
Res
erve
Bal
ance
s at
th
e BO
J (J
PY T
)
Bank Reserve Balances at the BOJ
0100200300400500600700800900
1,000
Bank
Res
erve
Bal
ance
s at
the
ECB
(€B)
Bank Reserve Balances at the ECB
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Bank
Res
erve
Bal
ance
s at
th
e BO
E (£
B)
Bank Reserve Balances at the BOE
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Bank
Res
erve
Bal
ance
s at
th
e Fe
d ($
B)
Bank Reserve Balances at the US Federal Reserve
Reserve Balances
Source: Federal Reserve, Treasury Strategies
Source: Bank of Japan, Treasury Strategies
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€787B
$2,460B
£178B
¥251T
Source: European Central Bank, Treasury Strategies
Source: Bank of England, Treasury Strategies
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0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
% A
sset
s to
GDP
US Federal Reserve Total Assets as % of GDP
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
% A
sset
s to
GDP
BOE - Total Assets as % of GDP
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
% A
sset
s to
GDP
Bank of Japan - Total Assets as % of GDP
Central Bank Assets as % GDP by Region
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Source: UK Office of National Statistics, Bank of England, Treasury StrategiesSource: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, St. Louis Federal Reserve, Treasury Strategies
Source: Bank of Japan, St. Louis Federal Reserve, Treasury Strategies
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
% A
sset
s to
GDP
European Central Bank - Total Assets as % of GDP
Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve, Treasury Strategies
US Dept. of the TreasuryIRS Rule 385
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Overview of the Proposed Regulations
Treatment of Certain Interests in Corporations as Stock or Indebtedness (REG-108060-15)
Primary intent is to reduce or eliminate corporate inversions in which a US company merges into a non-US company.
Secondary intent is to penalize certain intercompany cost allocations which Treasury refers to as “earnings stripping.”
Practical effect is to put at risk most corporate treasury management programs and the supporting bank services.
• Corporate cash commingling that fails several complex IRS tests will be subject to serious penalties. • Debt involved in routine corporate cash management transactions could be reclassified as equity or a
hybrid, resulting in lost of interest deductions, tax credits, etc.
“The proposed rules apply to purported indebtedness issued to certain related parties, without regard to whether the parties are domestic or foreign. “
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Source: www.irs.gov
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Areas of Concern for Corporations and Financial Institutions
1. Impact on routine cash management practices and banking structures
2. Extensive documentation for commingling intra-corporate funds
3. Low threshold of $50M
4. Three-year look back and three-year look ahead
5. Draconian penalties
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Unintended Consequences
1. The rules go far beyond the scope of corporate inversions and potentially impacts most mid-sized and large American businesses, increasing costs and reducing capital efficiency.
2. The rules will decrease bank lending to businesses and consumers by forcing commercial banks to incur higher capital requirements, and an increase in “high quality liquid assets” (HQLA) required under Basel III.
3. The rules will add a further drag to capital efficiency. Corporations will set aside additional capital to fund routine transactions rather than risk tripping a violation of these far-reaching rules. Banks will then need to set aside more capital and HQLA to support the increase in corporate deposits. Together, this additional stranded corporate and bank capital will depress economic activity.
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A Path Forward
Treasury Strategies proposes that Rule 385 be drafted more narrowly to avoid these draconian unintended consequences. The new draft should:
1. Enumerate the cash management principles we outlined above as being outside the scope of 385.
2. Define a specific safe harbor for companies so they will not need to take extreme measures to avoidaccidentally triggering a reclassification.
3. Eliminate the three-year look back and the three-year look ahead for transactions that take place solelywithin a corporation’s operating cash pool.
See http://www.treasurystrategies.com/sites/default/files/TreasuryStrategies385PathForward.pdf
Email us at [email protected] to be included in our 385 email updates.
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Panelist Discussion
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Panelist Discussion
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Disruptors
MMF REFORM
BREXIT
BEYOND BREXIT
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2
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Brexit and Beyond Brexit
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Meet Our Speakers
Tony CarfangManaging [email protected]
Kevin [email protected]
Brett [email protected]
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Debbie CunninghamChief Investment [email protected]
Steve BasebyAssociate Policy and Technical Director+44 (0) 78 874 623 [email protected]
Roger MerrittManaging [email protected]
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About Treasury Strategies
Treasury Strategies, A Division of Novantas, Inc., is the leading treasury consulting firm. Armed with decades of experience, we’ve developed solutions and delivered insights on leading practices, treasury operations, technology, and risk management for hundreds of companies around the globe.
We serve corporate treasurers, their financial services providers and technology providers for the complete 360° view of of treasury.
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www.TreasuryStrategies.com +1 312.443-0840
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@TreasuryStrat
www.youtube.com/c/treasurystrategiesincconsulting
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Connect With Us
Solutions
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About the ACT
Who We AreThe Association of Corporate Treasurers (ACT) sets the benchmark for international treasury excellence. As the chartered body for treasury, we lead the profession through our internationally recognised suite of treasury qualifications, define standards and support continuing professional development. We are the voice of corporate treasury representing the interests of our members.
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What We DoACT supports the growth and professional development of treasurers and finance professionals. We are an active global network of treasury, risk and finance professionals with members and students in 98 countries.
• We promote treasury as a discipline, as a profession and as a career.
• We provide informed and unbiased technical advice.
• We teach, examine and qualify treasury professionals and offer ongoingCPD.
• We stimulate debate and facilitate the exchange of ideas and information through our events, conferences, webinars and forums.
• We represent the real economy and influence relevant regulation and market practice. youtube.com/treasurersorg
facebook.com/actupdate
www.treasurers.org/linkedin
twitter.com/actupdate
www.treasurers.org
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About Federated Investors, Inc.
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L i q u i d i t y M a n a g e m e n t
§ Pioneer in liquidity management for more than 40 years and one of the largest institutional money market fund managers in the industry*
§ 34 liquidity management professionals with 19 years working together at Federated
§ Have never bought a security out of or infused capital into a money market fund to maintain a stable $1.00 NAV
• Prime• Government
• Tax-Free• Non-U.S Domiciled
Equity Management
§ Independent investment teams each focused on a specific style or approach with commitment to proprietary research
§ Portfolio managers average 23 years of experience, nearly 11 with Federated
§ Strategies are a result of both carefully cultivated homegrown initiatives as well as key strategic acquisitions
• Value (Clover)• International Equity• Dividend Oriented
• Quantitative (MDT)• Growth/Income• Growth (Kaufmann)
• Balanced/Macro• Alternatives (Prudent Bear)• Managed Risk
F i x e d - I n c o m e M a n a g e m e n t
§ Experienced, specialized teams with strength across the yield curve
§ Portfolio managers average 25 years of experience, nearly 18 with Federated
§ Modular process is portable across fixed-income styles and lends itself to portfolio customization
• Multi-Sector: Active Cash, Short, Intermediate• Sector Specific: Corporate, High-Yield, Emerging Markets, Trade Finance, Municipals
Founded: 1955
Headquarters: Pittsburgh
Global Operations: New York, Rochester, Boston, Houston, Dublin, Frankfurt, London and Tokyo
AUM: Approximately $355 billion
Ownership: § Publicly traded, privately held (NYSE: FII)
§ 20% employee ownership
Revenue Distribution Equity 46%
Liquidity 32%
Fixed-income 22%
RepresentativeClients
• Corporate/Public Defined Benefit
• Defined Contribution
• Endowment/Foundation
• Taft-Hartley
• Insurance
• Sub-Advisory
• Local Government Investment Pools (LGIP)
• Financial Intermediaries
All information is as of 3/31/15 unless stated otherwise.*Source: iMoneyNet, Inc. February 28, 2015
Delivering investment solutions since 1955
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About Fitch Ratings
Fitch Ratings is a leading provider of credit ratings, commentary, and research. Dedicated to providing value beyond the rating through independent and prospective credit opinions, Fitch Ratings offers global perspectives shaped by the strong local market experience and credit market expertise. The additional context, perspective and insights we provide help investors to make important credit judgments with confidence.
Fitch Group is a global leader in financial information services with operations in more than 30 countries. In addition to Fitch Ratings, the group includes Fitch Solutions, an industry-leading provider of credit risk products and services, and Fitch Learning, a preeminent training and professional development firm. Fitch Group is jointly owned by Paris-based Fimalac, S.A. and New York-based Hearst Corporation.
For additional information, please visit www.fitchratings.com.
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About Novantas, Inc.
Novantas is the industry leader in analytic advisory services and technology solutions for retail and commercial banks. We create superior value for our clients through deep and insightful analysis of the information that drives the financial services industry — across pricing, product development, treasury and risk management, distribution, marketing, and sales management.
For additional information, please visit Novantas.com
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