Treasury Economic Report

8/3/2019 Treasury Economic Report

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/treasury-economic-report 1/13

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Highlights Contents

Avg. Daily Turnover; Rs.1.9 Billion

Brent Crude Oil: US$ 111.47 per bbl

Exchange Rate on 23rd Sep: US$1=Rs. 110.31

Inflation in August: 7.0 percent (Point to Point)

364 days Treasury Bill Rate: 7.30 percent

Tourist Arrivals-Aug: Up by 30 percent

Call Money Weekly Average: 8.02 percent

Inflation & Exchange Rate ii

Interest Rate Movements iii

iv

Capital Market

International Commodit Prices v

Crude Oil Prices vi

Weekly Wholesale Commodity Prices vii

Government Debt, External Finance &Tourism

ix

External Trade x

Production xi



ii

TRENDS IN INFLATION

Source: Department of Census and Statistics

CCPI(%)(2006/2007=100)

Core Inflation(%)(2006/2007=100)

Month

Point topoint

AnnualAverage

Pointto

point

Annual

Average

Aug-2010 5.0 4.9 6.0 6.6Sep 5.7 5.3 6.2 6.5

Oct 6.5 5.7 7.2 6.6

Nov 6.9 6.1 7.9 6.7

Dec 6.8 6.2 8.9 7.0

Jan-2011FebMarchAprMay

June JulyAug

6.27.27.78.98.27.17.57.0

6.16.16.26.46.66.77.07.1

6.55.76.67.68.48.78.97.8

6.86.66.66.66.97.17.47.5

Point to point

Annual Average

2

4

6

8

10

J a n

‐ 1 0

F e b

M a r

A p r

M a y

J u n e

J u l y

A u g

S e p

O c t

N o v

D e c

J a n

‐ 1 1

F e b

M a r c h

A p r

M a y

J u n e

J u l y

%

Inflation Trend

Point to

point

Annual Average

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Jan -10 Feb Mar Apr May June Ju ly Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec J an -11 Feb Mar ch Apr May June Ju ly

%

Core Inflation Trend

The point to point inflation decreased to 7.0 per cent in August 2011 from 7.5 per cent recorded in July 2011 mainly from pricedecreases in the sub category of food and non alcoholic beverages. The annual average inflation rose slightly to 7.1 per cent in

August 2011 from 7.0 per cent recorded in July 2011. Core inflation that measures the price movements of the items in the CCPbasket excluding fresh food, energy, transport, rice and coconut, decreased to 7.8 per cent in year on year basis and annual averagincreased to 7.5 per cent in August 2011, compared to 8.9 per cent and 7.4 per cent, respectively in the previous month.

INFLATION AND EXCHANGE RATE

1 REAL INTEREST RATES

Sources: Department of Census and Statistics, Central Bank of Sri Lanka

Month CCPI(2006/07=100)

CCPIPoint

toPoint

Change

Annual

Avg Change

91

DaysT BillRate

RealInterest

Rate(Y on

Y)

RealInterest

Rate(Annual

Avg)

Aug-2010 141.4 5.0 4.9 7.55 -2.55 -2.65Sep 142.6 5.7 5.3 7.13 -1.43 -1.83Oct 144.1 6.5 5.7 7.11 -0.61 -1.41Nov 145.7 6.9 6.1 7.29 -0.39 -1.19Dec 147.2 6.8 6.2 7.24 -0.44 -1.04

Jan-2011FebMarAprMay

June) JulyAug

149.2151.3150.6150.6151.5151.2151.7151.3

6.27.27.78.98.27.17.57.0

6.16.16.26.46.66.77.07.1

7.016.976.987.097.107.127.117.11

-0.810.230.721.811.10-0.020.39-0.11

-0.91-0.87-0.78-0.69-0.50-0.42-0.11-0.01

AWDR

TB YeildRate

AnnualAverage

Inflation

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2 0 1 0 J a n

2 0 1 0 F e b

2 0 1 0 M a r

2 0 1 0 A p r

2 0 1 0 M a y

2 0 1 0 J u n e

2 0 1 0 J u l y

2 0 1 0 A u g

2 0 1 0 S e p

2 0 1 0 O c t

2 0 1 0 N o v

2 0 1 0 D e c

2 0 1 1 J a n

2 0 1 1 F e b

2 0 1 1 M a r

2 0 1 1 A p r

2 0 1 1 M a y

2 0 1 1 j u n e

2 0 1 1 j u n e

%

Declined Interest Rates



iii

INTEREST RATE MOVEMENT

Category

Week

Ending Sep 23,2011

WeekAgo

MonthAgo

Year Ago

Repo 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.25

Reverse Repo 8.50 8.50 8.50 9.00

Call Money Weekly Average 8.02 8.02 7.93 8.52

Treasury Bill (Yield rate)91 Days182 Days364 Days

7.147.227.30

7.117.207.26

7.117.197.25

7.137.177.30

Prime Lending Rate 9.32 9.51 9.36 10.19

Commercial Bank AverageWeighted Deposit Rate (AWDR)

6.40 6.40 6.35 6.86

Call money rates remained between 7.60 per cent and 8.05 per c

during the week. The Commercial Bank Average Weighted Dep

Rate (AWDR) in August averaged at 6.40 per cent. The Pr

Lending Rate stood at 9.32 per cent by week ending 23rd

September 2011. Commercial Bank Average Weighted Pr

Lending Rate for the month of August averaged at 9.43 per cent.

Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka

MONEY SUPPL


July2011

June2011

May2011

Apr2011

Mar2011

July2010

June2010

May2010

Apr2010

Mar2010

Growth 2010/11 Julyto July(%)

M1

(Rs Mn) 433.0 421.0 423.2 423.5 419.1 351.2 348.4 354.6 351.9 362.8 23.29

M2

(Rs Mn) 2,025.9 1,992.5 1,957.1 1,935.7 1,899.8 1,651.0 1,637.9 1,622.3 1,603.3 1,601.0 22.71

M2b

(Rs Mn) 2,312.3 2,270.9 2,239.0 2,212.1 2,176.2 1,916.4 1,881.4 1,875.3 1,868.9 1,851.7 20.66

CONTRIBUTION OF FOOD ITEMS TO THEDECREASE IN CCPI FROM JULY TO AUGUST 2011

MOVEMENTS OF THE CCPI IN FOODITEMS

Commodity Value ChangeRs.cts.

Change %

Food -142.99 -0.34Rice -25.43 -0.06Potatoes 4.83 0.01Coconut -45.93 -0.11Coconut oil -22.15 -0.05Chicken 17.55 0.04Eggs 5.13 0.01

Fish and Sea food 11.34 0.03Mango 15.3 0.04Vegetables -144.16 -0.34Sugar 14.5 0.03Red onions -63.14 -0.15B'onion 31.29 0.07Green chilies -3.43 -0.01Limes 4.39 0.01Other 56.92 0.14

Month %Change

Month toMonth

Inflation

Point to Annual

Point Average

Aug-10 0.3 5.3 5.3

Sep 1.7 7 5.7

Oct 2.3 9.3 6.2

Nov 2.2 10.1 6.7

Dec 2.1 9.9 6.9

Jan-11 2.4 10.2 7.1

Feb 2.7 13.1 7.5Mar -1.5 13.7 8.1

Apr -1.7 14.4 8.7

May 0.5 12.6 9.4

June -1 10.1 1

July -0.8 9.4 10.5

Aug -0.7 8.2 10.7

EXCHANGE RATES

Currency

WeekEnding

23rd

Sep2011

Week

Ago

Month

Ago

Aug

2010

%

Change2010/11

US Dollar 110.31 110.10 109.89 112.55 -1.99

Sterling Pound 169.89 173.97 181.25 176.29 -3.63Euro 149.17 152.54 157.40 150.87 -1.13

Japanese Yen 1.45 1.44 1.44 1.33 9.02

Indian Rupee 2.22 2.32 2.41 2.48 -10.48

Source: Central Bank of Sri LankaRupee appreciated against Sterling Pound, Euro and Indian Rupee whiledepreciated against US Dollar and Japanese Yen during this week.

104.00

106.00

108.00

110.00

112.00

114.00

116.00

118.00

J a n u a r y ‐ 0 9

F e b r u a r y

M a r c h

A p r i l

M a y

J u n e

J u l y

A u g u s t

S e p t e m b e r

O c t o b e r

N o v e m b e r

D e c e m b e r

J a n u a r y ‐ 1 0

F e b r u a r y

M a r c h

A p r i l

M a y

J u n e

J u l y

A u g u s t

S e p t e m b e r

O c t o b e r

N o v e m b e r

D e c e m b e r

J a n u a r y ‐ 1 1

F e b r u a r y

M a r c h

A p r i l

M a y

J u n e

J u l y

A u g u s t

R s p e r U

S $

Exchange Rate Movements 2009‐2011



iv

SHARE MARKE

Source: Colombo Stock Exchange

Week ending 22nd Sep

WeekAgo

YearAgo

All Share Price Index (1985 = 100)(ASPI)

6,762 6,851 6,703

Milanka Price Index (31/12/1998=1000)(MPI)

6,108 6,178 7,056

Average Daily Turnover (Rs.Mn) 1,875 3,350 4,973

Market Capitalization (Rs.Bn.) 2,427.9 2,458.5 2,207.6

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

I n d e x

All Share Price Index

Capital Market All Share Price Index (ASPI) closed at 6,762 points and, decreased by 89 points, during the week ending 22nd September while the more liqui Milanka Price Index (MPI) decreased by 70 index points to close at 6,108. The Average Daily Turnover has decreased by Rs 1,475 mn. and stood at R1.9 billion. Market capitalization reached Rs. 2,428 billion compared to Rs. 2,207.6 billion in the same period of the last year.

Equity Trading Statistics

July2011

July2010

Jan-July2011

Jan-July2010

Turnover -Equity (Rs.Mn.)

34,531 55,470 365,155 264,559

Domestic (Rs. Mn.) 29,800 46,186 325,517 204,180

Foreign (Rs. Mn.) 4,732 9,283 39,638 60,379

Market Days 20 22 136 136

Daily Turnover Avg.Equity (Rs. Mn.)

1,727 2,521 2,684 1,945

Trade Equity (Rs.) 348,878 381,291 2,879,925 1,706,532

Domestic 340,085 369,068 2,801,529 1,636,215

Foreign 8,793 12,223 78,396 70,317Shares Traded _Equity(Rs. Mn.)

1,615 2,964 15,486 9,371

Domestic (Rs. Mn.) 1,530 2,800 14,616 8,310Foreign (Rs. Mn.) 85 163 869 1,061

Companies Traded 254 231 - -Companies Listed 264 235 - -

Price Indices July2011

ASPI 6,826

MPI 6,301

Total Return Indicators

ASTRI 8,202

MTRI 7,639

Market PER 22.79

Dividend Yield 1.45

Market Capitalization

(Rs.Bn.)

2,352

Source: Colombo Stock Exchange

Stock Market - Foreign Purchases and Foreign Sales The Colombo Top 10 Index (23.09.2011)

DateForeign

Purchases(Rs.Mn)

ForeignSales

(Rs.Mn)

NetForeign

Purchases

(Rs.Mn)19th Sep - - -

20th Sep153.6 193.7 -40.1

21st Sep127.6 120.6 7.0

22nd Sep89.5 700.1 -610.6

23rd Sep 49.2 71.0 -21.8

From 03rd Jan up to23rd Sep 2011

39,734.4 57,254.7 -17,520.3


Company Name SharePrice

No ofSharesIssued

(RsMn.)

MarketCapitalization

(Rs.Mn.)

MarketCapital

%

John Keells Holdings 209.10 623 130,297 25

Dialog Telekom 8.50 8,144 69,222 11.55

Commercial Bank 113.40 234 26,577 9.7

Carsons 583.80 96 56,201 9.43

Distilleries Company

of Sri Lanka

171.70 300 51,510 8.41

HNB 199.00 191 37,964 6.93

Asian Hotels &Properties 90.00 221 19,924 6.65 Ceylon Theatres 185.00 170 31,514 5.28 Aitken SpenceHoldings 132.00 27 3,572 0.68 Aitken Spence Hotels 73.60 48 3,535 0.66 Total 554,712 84.29

Source: www.ceylonassetmanagement.com



v

COMMODITY PRICES

INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRIC

Month

MilkPowderAverage

PriceUS$/MT

GasAverage

PriceUS$/MT

RiceThai,100

%US$/MT

Wheat(HRW)

US$/MT

Jan-10 3,300 736 601 215

Feb-10 3,137 735 575 207

Mar-10 3,175 719 543 206

Apr-10 3,633 718 500 200

May-10 3,962 718 478 196 Jun-10 3,850 670 474 183

Jul-10 3,375 622 466 205

Aug-10 3,150 589 472 268

Sep-10 3,312 644 499 304

Oct-10 3,463 698 509 290Nov-10 3,513 791 541 292

Dec-10 3,550 933 564 290

Jan-11 3,801 924 542 340

Feb-11 4,169 813 554 362

Mar-11 4,592 848 524 332

Apr-11 4,088 886 507 359

May-11 4,075 980 500 362 June-11 3,938 904 518 347

July-11 3,825 843 548 308Aug-11 3,585 870 582 331

Sep-11 n.a. 842 596 356

Source: FAO Web Sites

Gas

Rice

Wheat

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

U S $ / M T

Annual Averages Quarterly Averages Monthly Averages

Commodity Unit Jan-Aug

Jan-Dec

Jan-Dec

Apr- Jun

Jul-Sep

Oct-Dec

Jan-Mar

Apr- June

June July Au

2011 2010 2009 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011

Non Energy,Agriculture, Beverages

Cocoa ¢/kg 318.5 313.3 288.9 321 306.2 296.6 334.3 307.4 301.6 316.7 306.4

Coffee, Arabica ¢/kg 619.5 432 317.1 392 468.5 513.8 620.0 636.5 606.2 590.9 595.2

Tea, auctions (3) average ¢/kg 297.4 288.5 272.5 274.5 297.8 303.7 288.7 299.7 301.8 311.7 304.0

Tea, Colombo auctions ¢/kg 331.6 329 313.7 316.1 322.1 342.4 356.3 319.7 311.8 309.6 315.7

Food, Fats & OilsCoconut oil $/mt 1,916 1,124 725 955 1,162 1,546 2,073 1,996 1,803 1,663 1,454

Copra $/mt 1,284 750 480 634 772 1,038 1,379 1,342 1,186 1,121 985

Palm oil $/mt 1,171 901 683 813 873 1,108 1,251 1,147 1,133 1,088 1,083

Grains

Barley $/mt 205.5 158.4 128.3 146.9 161.9 181.1 198.1 209.5 210.1 215.5 206.1

Other Food

Meat, beef ¢/kg 405.0 335.1 263.6 342.4 330.9 353.2 410.0 406.0 390.0 399.0 399.0

Meat, chicken ¢/kg 190.6 172.1 171.7 173 176.0 172.10 188.2 191.0 191.7 192.6 194.3

Sugar, world ¢/kg 58.65 46.93 39.91 34.93 42.94 58.01 62.70 52.56 55.58 62.21 61.18

Raw Materials, Timber

Plywood ¢/sheets 600.9 569.1 564.6 566.3 572.3 580.5 588.5 603.2 607.7 612.7 619.2

Woodpulp $/mt 924.5 867.6 616.2 881.5 916.8 900.8 891.5 942.0 950.4 948.0 940.0

Other Raw Materials

Rubber RSS3, US ¢/kg 531.4 365.4 192.1 372.7 337.5 432.8 573.2 530.1 493.4 473.2 467.6

Fertilizers

Phosphate rock $/mt 177.2 123 121.7 125.0 125.0 140.0 158.3 182.5 182.5 197.5 197.5

TSP $/mt 525.8 381.9 257.4 354.4 388.6 463.8 486.3 544.2 549.5 555.0 560.0

Urea $/mt 404.5 288.6 249.6 237.2 280.4 357.0 353.4 407.9 485.9 474.8 477.5

Metals and Minerals

Aluminum $/mt 2,530 2,173 2,110 2,096 2,090 2,343 2,501 2,611 2,558 2,525 2,379

Gold $/toz 1,500 1,225 973 1,196 1,227 1,367 1,384 1,507 1,529 1,572 1,757

Steel wire rod $/mt 747 712 970 767 678 653 684 782 790 790 790

Source: The World Bank¢= US cent $= US dollars



vi

CRUDE OIL PRICES - SINGAPORE PLATTES PRICES (US$/bb

Sep 23 Sep 22 Sep 21 Sep 20 Sep 19 Week

AgoMonth

AgoYearAgo

Brent (New York ClosingPrices) (US $/bbl.)

111.47 111.51 117.56 116.49 114.99 117.19 109.95 77.88

WTI (US$/bbl.) 79.64 80.16 85.80 86.76 85.67 87.97 86.18 74.71

Singapore Plattes Prices (Refined Petroleum Products) (US $/bbl

Petrol 118.10 119.10 122.88 121.80 123.70 124.51 118.97 80.31

Diesel 119.35 119.85 123.20 123.05 125.05 124.71 122.84 86.74

Kerosene 120.50 120.55 123.65 123.65 125.20 125.41 124.65 87.63


CRUDE OIL PRICES (Monthly Averag

Month WTI European Market

(US$/bbl)Brent (US$/bbl)

Jan-2010 78.32 76.73

Feb 76.38 74.07Mar 80.97 78.90Apr 84.38 84.59May 73.71 75.69

June 72.91 72.46 July 76.13 76.23Aug 71.52 72.79

Sep 75.23 78.25Oct 82.17 83.97Nov 84.23 85.91Dec 89.12 92.24

Jan -2011 89.25 97.33FebMarAprMay

June JulyAugSep*

88.63102.86109.45102.21101.54

97.1986.3286.69

103.70115.39124.41117.54116.85

117.35111.14116.37

2009

2010

2011

30

50

70

90

110

130

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

U S $ b n

Brent Crude Oil Prices

Oil prices have been volatile since second half of 2010 and reached US $ 116.37 /bbat 23rd Sep. The increase in prices has mainly driven by geo-political issues in

Middle East and the North Africa at the beginning of the year. The recent fall in prices could be mainly attributed to concerns about sovereign risk of some Europcountries, concerns over the US economy and the possible slowdown of the growth

global economy..

* Up to 23rd Sep 2011 Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka

MONTHLY AVERAGE REFINED PRODUCT PRICES – 2010/2011 Singapore Plattes Prices (US$/b

* Up to 23rd Sep 2011Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka

Month Petrol Diesel Kerosene

Jan-2010 84.80 84.30 85.97

Feb 83.72 82.52 82.46Mar 88.54 87.23 86.75

Apr 91.80 94.60 94.54

May 83.34 87.96 88.14

June 79.56 83.93 85.13 July 80.48 84.83 85.45

Aug 80.67 80.85 86.93

Sep 80.60 87.06 87.87Oct 87.07 92.93 93.97

Nov 91.26 96.66 97.41

Dec 100.19 102.84 103.73

Jan -2011

FebMarAprMay

June JulyAugSep*

104.24

109.78115.39128.25123.91

121.90123.54119.84123.50

108.16

117.51130.68137.91127.47126.70128.38123.04123.94

109.76

120.21132.25138.67128.54127.76129.17124.93124.61

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

U S $ p e r b b l

Refined Petrol Prices



vii

WEEKLY WHOLESALE COMMODITY PRIC

Pettah Market

Dambulla Mark Week Ending –21st Sep 2011 (Rs /K

Average Wholesale Prices

WeekEnding 22/09/11

WeekAgo

MonthAgo

YearAgo

Rice (Rs/Kg)SambaKekulu (Red)

58.5046.00

60.5045.00

60.5047.75

64.2952.70

VegetableBeansCabbageCarrotsTomatoesPumpkinsSnake GourdBrinjalsAsh Plantains

100.0030.0080.0060.0050.0050.0030.0050.00

80.0035.0060.0018.0020.0020.0025.0040.00

101.2525.6351.2517.5019.5023.7535.0035.00

97.7848.8782.6372.1130.6641.6245.1660.79

Red-Onions (Local)Potatoes (N’Eliya)Dried Chilies

(Imported)Dhal (Indian)Eggs (Red) (Each)Coconut (Each)

82.5085.00

253.00

100.009.80

32.00

77.50112.50250.00

95.009.30

29.00

61.25103.33251.50

106.2511.0632.00

94.0183.14

160.89

135.8512.7528.42

Fish (Rs/Kg)

KelawallaBalayaSalayaParaw (Small)

380.00255.00120.00500.00

418.00270.00140.00675.00

387.50272.50137.50462.50

326.54224.78105.68371.57

Item WeekEnding 23/09/11

WeekAgo

MonthAgo

YearAgo

SambaSudu KekuluRaw RedNadu

51.7341.8542.5044.50

52.6441.7042.6745.65

53.1046.0342.1047.88

64.1255.6254.3556.31


Food Item Wholesale(Average)

Rice (Rs/Kg)SambaKekulu (Red)

54.0041.00

VegetablesPumpkinsSnake GourdAsh PlantainsBeansCarrotsTomatoes

42.1324.2538.7571.0056.6328.50

Other Foods

Potatoes (N’Eliya)Dried Chilies (Imported)Red-Onions (Local)Coconut (Each)

86.50251.3876.2525.25

Marandagahamula Average Price of Rice (Rs /K g)


The wholesale prices of Samba, Raw Red and Nadu further decreased during this week. The wholesale prices of most vegetable varieincreased against previous week while the prices of most fish varieties decreased. Prices of other commodities, such as Red -Oni(Local), Dhal, Coconut and dried chilies, increased during the corresponding period.

WEEKLY RETAIL COMMODITY PRICES



viii

WEEKLY RETAIL COMMODITY PRICES - 03rd Week of September 201Colombo Rs.

ItemUnit

This Week

PriceRange

WeekAgo

MonthAgo

YearAgo

RiceSamba(Avg.) 1 kg 65.42 54.00-72.00 66.07 65.99 65.11

No. 1 1 kg 68.29 65.00-72.00 68.55 68.21 68.23No. 2 1kg 62.55 54.00-70.00 63.60 63.76 61.99

Nadu Red 1kg 60.09 55.00-65.00 59.68 59.53 60.41

Raw Red (Avg) 1kg 53.10 43.00-60.00 54.56 54.26 52.09No. 1 1kg 56.11 55.00-60.00 58.40 57.33 55.22

No. 2 1kg 50.09 43.50-60.00 50.71 51.18 48.96Wheat Flour 1 kg 84.60 80.00-90.00 85.17 85.15 74.17

Bread 450g 48.96 45.00-50.00 48.95 48.95 42.10Sugar 1 kg 97.12 93.00-100.00 97.02 97.37 89.41

Anchor 400g 264.00 264.00-264.00 264.00 264.00 244.00Potatoes (Impor) 1 kg 101.92 80.00-120.00 105.38 87.78 80.18Potatoes (Local) 1kg 120.87 100.00-140.00 125.72 134.73 104.85Red Dhal 1kg 133.71 110.00-160.00 137.17 141.02 157.49

Cowpea (Avg) 1kg 229.76 200.00-280.00 229.79 230.65 180.30Gree Gram(Avg) 1kg 180.51 160.00-200.00 183.19 190.05 222.14

Kadalai (Avg) 1kg 208.58 160.00-250.00 210.67 211.47 156.27Meat

Beef 1kg 466.84 450.00-500.00 465.00 458.00 451.92

Chicken

Fresh 1kg 487.00 450.00-500.00 477.00 453.64 483.28Broiler 1kg 350.00 350.00-350.00 350.00 350.00 351.53

Fresh FishParaw 1 kg 736.19 600.00-800.00 725.00 734.50 716.77Balaya 1 kg 476.47 400.00-560.00 464.29 485.83 466.87

Kelawalla 1 kg 652.22 490.00-720.00 657.08 691.92 635.36Salaya 1 kg 158.15 120.00-200.00 166.67 159.94 150.29

Dried Fish

Sprats 1 kg 373.59 300.00-400.00 373.19 380.78 363.02

Eggs Each 10.74 9.00-13.00 10.06 11.43 15.20Coconut Each 34.48 25.00-45.00 34.99 34.66 32.36Coconut Oil 750ml 172.17 150.00-200.00 164.07 183.24 158.19Red Onions 1 kg 110.25 90.00-120.00 109.62 97.59 90.68

B- Onions (Impo) 1 kg 71.00 70.00-72.00 72.38 95.91 75.99Brinjal 1kg 71.54 60.00-98.00 78.27 72.31 89.26

Beans Green 1 kg 117.23 110.00-140.00 116.59 131.19 125.79Cabbage 1 kg 63.41 50.00-80.00 65.27 65.20 98.97Leeks 1 kg 61.33 40.00-80.00 60.63 69.33 115.71

Beet Root 1kg 74.24 60.00-100.00 74.51 75.19 89.75

Carrot 1kg 87.46 60.00-100.00 87.39 82.44 97.47

Tomatoe 1kg 69.70 50.00-80.00 64.10 54.23 106.27

Radish 1kg 68.81 50.00-80.00 68.29 67.81 69.01

Vetakolu 1kg 76.90 60.00-80.00 78.06 76.37 92.79

Snake Gourd 1kg 70.23 50.00-80.00 68.51 68.19 74.92

Bandakka 1kg 89.00 70.00-100.00 86.68 77.82 91.91

Kolikuttu Each 15.11 12.00-18.00 14.72 15.00 14.86

Papaw 1kg 67.59 60.00-80.00 78.63 92.27 51.74

Pineapple 1kg 94.37 75.89-127.00 105.05 104.42 125.62

Kerosene oil 1 liter 61.00 61.00 61.00 61.00 51.00

Diesel (CPC) 1 liter 76.00 76.00 76.00 76.00 73.00Petrol 1 liter 125.00 125.00 125.00 125.00 115.00

Gas (Litro) 12.5kg 2046.00 2046.00 2046.00 1890.00 1550.00

Source: Department of Census and Statistics

64.5

65

65.5

66

66.5

Year Ago MonthAgo

Week Ago This week

R s p e r k g .

Rice Prices

120125130135140145150155160

Year Ago Month Ago Week Ago This wee

R s p e r k g .

Average Retail Prices of Dhal

405060708090

100110120130140

Year Ago Month Ago Week Ago This week

R s p e r k g .

Retail Prices of Potatoes

Potatoes (Local)

Potatoes (Imported)

The average retail prices of most ricevarieties declined further during this week.Prices of most of the vegetables remainedmixed performance. Most fresh fish varietiesretail prices have mixed performance.



ix

Category 2011 Jan to June 2010 Jan to June % Change

Inflows 2,506.6 1,983.1 26.4

Outflows 211.5 186.1 13.6

Net flows 2,295.1 1,797 27.7


TOURIST ARRIVAL

Source: Sri Lanka Tourism Development Authority.* Change in first eight months

Arrivals Earnings (US $ Mn.)

Month 2009 2010 2011

%change2010/11

2009 2010 2011

%change 2010/11

January 38,468 50,757 74,197 46.230.0 44.7 70.5 57.7February 34,169 57,300 65,797 14.8 26.7 50.4 62.5 24.0March 34,065 52,352 75,130 43.51 26.5 46.1 76.2 65.3April 26,054 38,300 63,835 66.67 20.4 33.7 61.9 83.7May 24,739 35,213 48,943 38.99 19.3 31.0 47.0 51.6

June 30,234 44,730 53,636 19.0023.5 39.3 52.0 32.3

July 42,227 63,339 83,786 32.2833.0 55.8 81.3 45.7August 41,207 55,898 72,463 29.63 32.1 49.1 70.3 43.2September 37,983 47,339 30.2 41.7October 37,571 52,370 28.7 46.1November 44,311 72,251 34.6 63.6December 56,862 84,627 79.1 74.4

Total 447,890 654,476 537,787 35.2* 349.5 575.9 521.7 49.0*

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

J a n u

F e

b r

M a r c

h

A p r i l

M a y

J u n e

J u

l y

A u g u s

t

S e p

t

O c

t o

N o v e

D e c e

J a n u

F e

b r

M a r c

h

A p r i l

M a y

J u n e

J u

l y

A u g u s

t

N o .

Tourist Arrivals in 2010-2011

Tourism

Tourism sector enjoyed with total earnings of US $521.7 million during Jan-Aug, 2011 period with anincrease of 49 per cent over the same period of 2010.The number of tourist arrivals also increased to 537,787during first 8 months, a 35.2 per cent increasecompared to 2010.The boom in the tourism sector opens doors to theprivate investment in resorts, hotels, conventioncenters, transport, health facilities, shopping andrecreation activities. It also helps to create new demandfor local production of vegetables and fruits, recreationas well as industrial products.

GOVERNMENT DEBT AND EXTERNAL SECTOR

GOVERNMENT DEB

Government Debt (Rs.bn)End July

2011Month ago

Total Domestic Debt 2,755.0 2,746.8

Total Foreign Debt 2,264.8 2,125.3

Total Government Debt 5,019.8 4,872.1


Total Outstanding Public Debt

3000

3200

3400

3600

3800

4000

4200

EXTERNAL ASSET

External Assets(US$ Mn)

July2011

June2011

May2011

Apr2011

Mar2011

July2010

June2010

May2010

Apr2010

Mar2010

Growth2010/11(%)

Total Reserves9,487 8,600 8,502 8,690 8,248.7 6,913 6,691 6,391 6,578 6,558 37.23

Gross OfficialReserves 8,099 7,451 7,026 7,163 6,993.2 5,467 5,428 5,032 5,215 5,192 48.14


Official ReservesThe gross official reserves were US$ 8,099 mn by the end July 2011. The

total reserves stood at US $ 9,487 mn at the same time. This isequivalent to 6.8 months of imports and the gross official reserves wereequivalent to 5.8 months of imports. Workers’ remittances rose by 26.4per cent to US $ 2,506.6 million during Jan to June 2011.

100030005000

7000

J a n - 0 9

M a r - 0 9

M a y - 0 9

J u l - 0 9

S e p - 0 9

N o v - 0 9

J a n - 1 0

M a r - 1 0

M a y - 1 0

J u l - 1 0

S e p - 1 0

N o v - 1 0

J a n - 1 1

M a r - 1 1

M a y - 1 1

J u l - 1 1

U S $ m

n .

Trend of Gross Official Reserves

Position

PRIVATE REMITTANCES (US$ Mn



x

EXTERNALTRADE

Category July2011

(US$ Mn)

July2010

(US$ Mn)

GrowthRate

(%)

Jan-July2011

Cumulative(US$ Mn.)

Jan-July2010

Cumulative(US$ Mn.)

Growth

2010/11(%)

Exports957.56 875.55 9.37 6,014.38 4,617.22 30.26

Agricultural 205.39 213.07 -3.60 1,333.92 1,172.30 13.79Tea 127.67 153.23 -16.68 832.31 802.40 3.73

Other 77.72 59.84 29.88 501.61 369.90 35.61Industrial 743.46 655.72 13.38 4,606.99 3,390.37 35.88

Food, Beverages and Tobacco52.12 55.43 -5.97 340.28 314.90 8.06

Textiles and Garments 385.37 367.05 4.99 2,405.03 1,866.45 28.86Rubber products

80.73 62.88 28.39 492.21 283.90 73.37Diamond and Jewellery

44.75 23.87 87.47 218.91 185.70 17.88Other

180.49 146.49 23.21 1,150.50 739.42 55.59Mineral 8.70 6.76 28.70 73.40 54.51 34.65Unclassified 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.07 0.05 40.00

Imports1,777.02 1,123.54 58.16 11,091.20 7,477.24 48.33

Consumer goods341.03 245.18 39.09 2,432.22 1,583.65 53.58

Food & Drink 162.05 131.85 22.90 1,285.19 1,019.35 26.08Other Consumer Goods

178.97 113.33 57.92 1,147.03 564.30 103.27Motor Cars & Cycles 87.29 50.67 72.27 574.74 186.41 208.32

Intermediate goods999.28 632.49 57.99 6,177.17 4,200.85 47.05

Petroleum441.86 187.46 135.71 2,492.63 1,788.42 39.38

Fertilizer53.59 20.01 167.82 204.69 144.24 41.91

Chemicals39.30 29.71 32.28 286.73 219.06 30.89

Textiles & Clothing176.37 161.37 9.30 1,290.60 902.48 43.01

Diamonds49.73 37.41 32.93 241.20 155.67 54.94

Other Intermediate Goods238.43 196.53 21.32 1,661.32 990.98 67.64

Investment goods 383.83 236.73 62.14 2,398.98 1,553.40 54.43Machinery & Equipment

178.18 99.06 79.87 1,085.90 618.09 75.69Transport Equipment

53.47 50.01 6.92 475.54 317.97 49.55Building Materials

104.65 62.43 67.63 589.57 451.24 30.66Other Investment Goods 47.52 25.23 88.35 247.96 166.10 49.28

Unclassified 52.88 9.15 477.92 82.83 139.35 -40.56Trade Balance -819.46 -247.99 230.44 -5,076.82 -2,860.02 77.51


• Earnings from exports grew by 30 per cent to US6,014.28mn during the first seven months of 2011. Thearnings for the month of July increased by 9.4 per cencompared to July 2010 mainly due to enhance

performance in industrial and mineral exports. A significangrowth was recorded in the sub sectors of machinery andequipment, diamond and jewellery and textiles angarments.

• The import bill for the reference period reached US11,091.20mn, increase by 48 per cent. The majocontribution was recorded in the imports of intermediatgoods that primarily comprised of petroleum and fertilizer.

• Trade deficit expanded to US$ 5,076.82mn during thiperiod recording a 78 per cent increase over the samperiod of 2010.

Exports

Imports

400

600

800

1000

1200

14001600

1800

2000

J a M M J

u l

S e

N o

J a M M J

u l

S e

N o

J a M M J

u l

S e

N o

J a M M J

u l

U S $ M n

External Trade Movements (2008-2011July)



xi

PRODUCTION

QUARTERLY GDP GROWTH (%)

1st Q 2nd Q 3rd Q 4th Q Annual

2005 5.2 6.4 6.9 6.4 5.6 Agriculture (1.3) 1.7 4.6 2.8 11.0

Industry 8.6 6.8 7.7 8.8 23.7

Service 5.2 7.3 7.0 6.0 14.82006 7.8 7.7 7.7 7.4 6.9

Agriculture 9.8 5.6 4.0 5.5 6.1

Industry 7.2 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.4

Service 7.7 7.8 8.2 7.3 7.82007 6.1 6.4 7.0 7.6 7.4

Agriculture 0.5 3.7 3.8 6.4 3.3

Industry 6.9 7.5 7.5 8.5 7.6

Service 7.2 6.5 7.4 7.4 7.12008 6.2 7.0 6.3 4.3 6.0

Agriculture 5.9 7.4 12.4 4.0 7.5

Industry 6.0 6.9 5.6 5.2 5.9

Service 6.4 6.9 5.5 3.8 5.62009 1.6 2.1 4.2 6.1 3.5

Agriculture 3.6 5.0 (0.5) 5.5 3.2

Industry 1.9 3.0 4.4 7.3 4.2

Service 1.0 1.2 5.1 5.6 3.32010 7.1 8.5 8.0 8.6 8.0

Agriculture 9.1 6.3 6.2 6.3 7.0

Industry 6.9 9.2 8.8 8.9 8.4

Service 6.7 8.6 8.0 8.8 8.02011 7.9 8.2

Agriculture (5.1) 1.9

Industry 11.1 9.4

Service 9.5 8.8

0

2

4

6

8

10

%

Growth Rate

1st 2nd 3rd 4th

GDP grows at a faster paceThe Sri Lankan economy is estimated to have grown by 8.0% in

the first half of 2011 compared to the growth rate of 7.8%

recorded in the first half of 2010, particularly with the support of

the improved domestic and external demand. The Industry and

Services sectors grew by 10.3% and 9.1%, respectively during

the first half of 2011. The buoyant performance particularly in

manufacturing and factory industries, external trade, tourism,

banking and financial services, hotel and restaurants, power

generation, private sector services and transport &

communication sub sectors contributed mainly to this improvedperformance. The Agriculture sector contributed negatively by

recording a growth rate of -1.8% mainly reflecting the weather

related setback experienced in the first quarter of the year,

followed by a gradual recovery in the second quarter.

Source: Department of Census & Statistics

Labour Force StatisticsEmployment 2010 1st

Quarter2011 1stQuarter

2010Annual

0

2

4

6

8

10

2 0 04 2 0 05 2 0 06 2 0 07 2 0 08 2 0 09 2 0 10 2 01 1 1Q

R a t e

Unemployment Rate

Labour Force Participation Rate 49.1 48.8 48.6Unemployment Rate 5.1 4.3 4.9Source: Department of Census & Statistics

PADDY STATISTICS

Category2009 2010 2011

2008/2009Maha

2009 YalaTotal

2009/2010 Maha

2010*Yala Total

2010/2011 Maha

Production

Mn.Mt 2.38 1.26 3.65 2.6 1.67 4.27 1.9

Bushels mn. 114 61 175 126 80 206 95

Harvested Area

Hectares (‘000) 605 338 943 643 376 1,019 591Acres (‘000) 1,494 834 2,328 1,590 929 2,519 1,462

Average Yieldkg per ha 4,421 4,186 4,304 4,599 4,444 4,522 3,796

Source: Department of Census & StatisticsThe paddy production in 2010 increased by 17 percent to around 4.3 million mt. compared to the 2009 production of 3.7 millionmt, recording a highest ever paddy production since 1952, benefiting from increased extent in cultivation, increased average yieldby 5 percent, supported by favorable weather conditions and continuation of fertilizer subsidy. The total extent harvested alsoincreased by 8 percent over 2009. The paddy production in 2010/2011 Maha season decreased by 27 percent to around 1.9 millionmt compared to the 2009/2010 Maha season due to severe flood damage in the Eastern and the Central parts of the country inearly 2011.



xii

TEA, RUBBER & COCONUT PRODUCTION

Category 2011 Jan-July 2010 Jan-July % ChangeTea (Mn. Kg) 195.7 196.7 -0.5

Rubber (Mn. Kg) 93.5 85.0 10.0Coconut (Mn. Nuts) 1,203 1,553 -22.5


EXTENT, PRODUCTION AND COST OF PRODUCTION - Tea, Rubber &Coconut

Year Tea Rubber Coconut

Extent(Hectares)

ProductionMT

COP(Rs./Kg)

Extent(Hectares)

ProductionMT

COP(Rs./Kg)

Extent(Hectare

s)

Production MT

COP(Rs./1000

nuts)

2002 212,715 310,030 121.97 116,478 90,520 55.74 394,836 2,459 3,584

2003 212,715 303,229 126.72 116,478 92,009 59.76 394,836 2,512 4,135

2004 212,715 308,089 133.09 116,478 94,700 65.98 394,836 2,590 4,774

2005 212,715 317,200 149.13 116,478 104,352 72.56 394,836 2,515 4,870

2006 212,715 310,800 161.98 116,478 109,135 87.65 394,836 2,684 5,436

2007 212,715 304,600 210.75 116,478 117,600 102.31 394,836 2,805 6,124

2008 221,969 318,700 231.49 116,478 129,243 119.89 394,836 2,909 8,795

2009 221,969 290,000 269.01 124,000 136,000 135.83 394,836 2,859 9,166


Cow and Buffalo Milk Production 2000 - 2010

Year

Average Monthly MilkProduction (Liters)

TotalMonthly

MilkProduction

(Liters)

Annual Milk Production(Liters) Total Annual

Milk Production(Liters)Cow

MilkBuffaloe

MilkCow Milk

BuffaloeMilk

2000 12,603,800 2,517,512 15,121,312 151,245,600 30,210,148 181,455,748

2001 12,730,400 2,521,900 15,252,300 152,764,800 30,262,800 183,027,600

2002 12,736,740 2,529,510 15,266,250 152,840,880 30,354,120 183,195,000

2003 13,045,500 2,521,500 15,567,000 156,546,000 30,258,000 186,804,000

2004 13,308,000 2,550,000 15,858,000 159,696,000 30,600,000 190,296,000

2005 13,484,700 2,577,100 16,061,800 161,816,400 30,925,200 192,741,600

2006 13,748,100 2,637,180 16,385,280 164,977,200 31,646,160 196,623,360

2007 14,144,000 2,690,100 16,834,100 169,728,000 32,281,200 202,009,200

2008 14,370,200 2,970,890 17,341,091 172,442,406 35,650,685 208,093,090

2009 15,338,740 4,104,280 19,443,020 184,064,880 49,251,360 233,316,240

2010 15,993,300 4,636,200 20,629,500 191,919,600 55,634,400 247,554,000




xiii

PRODUCTION OF CEREALS, PULSES & VEGETABLES

2009 2010

Extent (Hectares)Production (MT)

Extent(Hectares Production (MT)

2008/09Maha

2009Yala

2009Total

2008/09Maha

2009Yala

2009Total 2009/10 Maha

Cereals

Maize 44,786 6,070 50,856 114,660 15,110 129,770 127,760 48,890

Kurakkan 5,024 880 5,904 5,570 860 6,430 6,210 5,540

Sorghum 108 30 138 140 40 180 80 60

Meneri 10 20 30 10 10 20 10 20

Pulses

Green gram 6,674 1,900 8,574 7,520 1,740 9,260 7,590 6,890

Cowpea 8,488 2,950 11,438 10,060 3,420 13,480 8,140 7,860

Black gram 7,496 370 7,866 6,600 480 7,080 9,240 9,080

Red onions 2,175 2,320 4,495 21,040 25,190 46,230 31,730 2,520

Soya Beans 425 1,230 1,655 800 2,990 3,790 1,350 710

Oil SeedsGroundNuts 6,877 2,130 9,007 10,200 2,870 13,070 11,260 7,330

Gingelly 2,412 8,470 10,882 1,480 7,050 8,530 1,700 2,600

Musterd 323 40 363 280 20 300 400 350Roots &Tubers

Manioc 14,706 9,160 23,866 178,710 99,140 277,850 178,630 14,050

Sweet Potatoes 3,513 2,490 6,003 26,990 20,280 47,270 25,780 3,270

Big Onions 182 4,900 5,082 1,350 80,360 81,710 1,970 240

Ginger (Raw) 1,892 1,892 10,780 10,780 12,050 2,070Turmaric(Raw) 997 997 7,750 7,750 8,300 1,000

Low Country Vegetables

Luffa 2,562 1,755 4,317 17,824 16,011 33,835 2,638 23,444

Bandakka 4,364 3,237 7,601 28,053 24,075 52,128 4,192 33,928

Snake Gourd 1,956 1,449 3,405 16,756 15,516 32,272 1,921 20,339

Brinjals 6,781 4,661 11,442 60,690 43,474 104,164 6,535 67,374Bitter Groud 2,736 1,798 4,534 20,820 17,125 37,945 2,476 23,789

Cucumber 1,891 1,362 3,253 17,553 13,508 31,061 1,774 18,540

Ash Pumpkin 744 402 1,146 6,374 3,503 9,877 666 6,396

Red Pumpkin 5,147 2,590 7,737 54,003 33,219 87,222 5,661 65,028

Ash Plantain 5,343 4,060 9,403 39,311 39,088 78,399 5,121 44,981

Up Country Vegetables

Tomatoes 4,185 3,549 7,734 48,496 36,202 84,698 4,020 41,930

Cabbage 2,634 1,825 4,459 49,638 27,290 76,928 2,316 35,682

Beans 4,685 3,378 8,063 25,662 16,900 42,562 4,615 24,009

Leeks 911 769 1,680 14,281 12,842 27,123 861 12,657

Beetroot 1,152 1,218 2,370 13,621 12,257 25,878 1,336 12,732

Knolkhol 733 778 1,511 8,742 7,150 15,892 683 5,428

Carrot 1,795 1,230 3,025 24,165 15,850 40,015 1,615 18,919

Raddish 2,047 1,505 3,552 21,475 16,355 37,830 1,996 18,822

Capsicum 2,016 1,462 3,478 9,062 5,849 14,911 1,818 8,324

Other

Chillies (Green) 9,883 4,920 14,803 33,405 17,598 51,003 9,479 33,246

Cigar Tobacco 500 329 829 789 538 1,327 613 403

Beedi/Chewing Tobacco 1,045 257 1,302 2,005 433 2,438 1,546 880Source: Department of Census & Statistics

Treasury Economic Report

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