Traveler Typologies and the Causes for Recent Changes in Millennial Travel

Patterns

Kelcie M. RalphAssistant Professor

Transportation Research Board2016

Vehicle miles of travel in the United States by year

Source: Vehicle miles of travel data is from the Federal Highway Administration’s Office of Highway Policy Information (http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/travel_monitoring/historicvmt.cfm)U.S. population data is from the U.S. Census accessed via http://www.multpl.com/united-states-population/table

The Cheapest Generation

Young people driving less,

embrace other transportation

-Copeland October 1, 2013

Young people driving less,

embrace other transportation

-Copeland October 1, 2013

Is it true?

To find out…

• National Household Travel Survey – 1990– 2001– 2009

• Young people ages 16 to 36

Mobility Trip making

1 0,5 60

Automobile access Day-to-day variability

Travel behavior is multifaceted

Latent Profile Analysis

Latent Profile Analysis

Drivers Long-distance Trekkers

Multimodals Car-less

Drivers: 79%

Long-distance Trekkers: 3%

Multimodals: 4%

Car-less: 14%

-5%-4%-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%

Change in the preva-lence of the traveler

types (1995 to 2009)

Driver Trekker MultimodalCar-less

Perc

enta

ge p

oint

cha

nge

What can we expect moving forward?

Why is this happening?

Preferences have changed

Responding to economic

constraints

Preferences have changed

Responding to economic

constraints

Back to the city

Internet

Green values

Preferences have changed

Responding to economic

constraints

Un(der)employme

nt

Widening

wage gap

Lost decade

Preferences have changed

Responding to economic

constraints

Option 1: Ask directly

• Misstate preferences • Difference between stated & actual • May not be generalizable• Tricky to answer:

– How would you behave differently if the Internet and mobile communications did not exist?

Many people have done this• Delbosc and Currie (2012)• Jorritsma and Bervelingm (2014)• Le Vine, Jones et al. (2014)

Option 2: Indirect test

Assumption: Young people with many resources are better able to act on their preferences than those with few resources.

Employment status

Household income quintile

(adjusted)

Educational attainment(Age 26 to 36 only)

79% to 69%

under-employmen

t

Stagnation in lower income

quintiles

Only 44% have a

bachelor’s degree

WHAT DID I FIND?

Not employed Employed

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

Change 1995 to 2009

Driver Car-less

Perc

enta

ge

poin

t cha

nge

2x more

“Driving fell among both young people with jobs and those without during the 2000s”

Dutzik, Inglis et al. (2014)

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

By household income quintile

Perc

enta

ge

poin

t cha

nge

Change 1995 to 2009 6x more

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

By educational attainment

Perc

enta

ge

poin

t ch

ange

Change 1995 to 2009 20x more

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

By household income quintile

Perc

enta

ge

poin

t cha

nge

-30%-20%-10%

0%10%20%30%

By educational attainment

Perc

enta

ge

poin

t ch

ange

Fewer Drivers and more Car-less by Resources (1995 to

2009)

A closer look at young people with resources

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5

-4%-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%

By household income quintileTrekker Multimodal

Perc

enta

ge

poin

t cha

nge

Change 1995 to 2009

Trend was reversed

for Multimoda

ls and Long-

distance Trekkers

Multivariate analysis

Employed

Q1Q2Q4Q5

Less than HSSome college

College degreeAdvanced degree

-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Employed

Q1Q2Q4Q5

Less than HSSome college

College degreeAdvanced degree

-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20

Drivers

Car-less

-10 -5 0 5

-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2

Long-distance Trekkers

Multimodals

Another indirect test

If preferences were indeed the primary cause of the decline, then over time,

being Car-less would have less to do with resources.

-12-10

-8-6-4-20

Employed(Base: Not employed)

1995

2001

2009

Cha

nge

in p

ropo

rtio

n C

ar-le

ss re

lativ

e to

bas

e

Q1 Q2 Q4 Q5

-5

0

5

10

15

Household income quintile(Base: Q3)

Less

_x00

0d_th

an H

S

Colleg

e _x0

00d_

degre

e

-5

5

15

Educational attainment(Base: High school only)

The gap between the haves and the

have nots is widening.

http://www.columbusunderground.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/uber-columbus.jpghttp://photography-cameras.org/

Already evidence that Millennials are returning to driving

Thank you. Kelcie M. Ralph

Assistant ProfessorKelcie.ralph@ejb.Rutgers.edu