Transportation in the U.S. Critical Infrastructure The Development of a Methodology and Mathematical...
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Transportation in the U.S. Critical Infrastructure
The Development of a Methodology and Mathematical Model for Assessing the Impacts of K Links Disconnects have on Defined Links of a Network
© Gerard Ibarra, SMU 2005
Outline
• Abstract• Systems Engineering Process• Critical Infrastructure Protection (CIP): Transportation• Objective• Analysis Process• Research Significance • Resource Allocation• Risk Mitigation• Conclusion
© Gerard Ibarra, SMU 2005
Abstract
• By viewing the transportation critical infrastructure (CI) as a system-of-systems (SOS) and using a holistic approach coupled with Systems Engineering (SE) methodologies, it is possible to assess the criticality of a highway network based on disconnects within the network
© Gerard Ibarra, SMU 2005
The Systems Engineering Process
• Defining the System – System of SystemsAgriculture
Water
Public Health
EmergencyServices
DefenseIndustrial
Base
Telecom.
EnergyTransportation
Government
Chemical andHazMat
Postal andShipping
Banking andFinance
FoodAgriculture
Water
Public Health
EmergencyServices
DefenseIndustrial
Base
Telecom.
EnergyTransportation
Government
Chemical andHazMat
Postal andShipping
Banking andFinance
Food
© Gerard Ibarra, SMU 2005
CIP Transportation
The transportation sector of the CI sector is vital to US citizens’ way of life as well as how corporations do business
ENERGY FOOD
COMMUT-ING
TRAVEL
MED. EMG.
© Gerard Ibarra, SMU 2005
CIP Transportation
• CI is increasingly becoming more crucial to the US
• Three areas in particular signify its importance
Tonnage
Complexity
Costs
Ris
e in
Tra
nsp
ort
atio
n
© Gerard Ibarra, SMU 2005
CIP Transportation
• Rise in Transportation Complexity
Complexity
• Intermodal
• Destinations
• Departures
Components
• Highways
• Airports
• Rail
© Gerard Ibarra, SMU 2005
Objective
• To measure the criticality of the network based cost and risk given disconnects occurring within the network
• Outcomes– Provide city and government officials a SE
methodology to construct a model for understanding the impact of disconnects in the transportation network
– Help in the decision making process• Cost reduction• Risk mitigation
© Gerard Ibarra, SMU 2005
Analysis Process
• Model– Highway Network
© Gerard Ibarra, SMU 2005
Analysis Process
• Mathematical Model to Approximate Costs
ACCIDENTS CONSTRUCTION
© Gerard Ibarra, SMU 2005
Analysis Process
• Mathematical Model to Approximate Cost
1 2
3
18
20
13
45
7
14
915
8
12
11
16 1710
6
19
24
232221
6A
1 2
3
18
20
13
45
7
14
915
8
12
11
16 1710
6
19
24
232221
6A
16
17
18
19
2021
22
23
24
2926
27
28
25 16
17
18
19
2021
22
23
24
2926
27
28
25
© Gerard Ibarra, SMU 2005
Analysis Process
• Mathematical Model to Approximate Cost– Given
• Disconnect at node 16 during rush hour• Estimated 7.87 deaths and 19.68 injuries• Roughly 100 linear feet of highway demolished
$10,078,833
Cost per death: $1,120,000Cost per accident: $45,500Cost per foot: $3,686
© Gerard Ibarra, SMU 2005
Research Significance
• Contribution: This dissertation provides officials a decision-making methodology and tool for resource allocation and risk mitigation– Metrics that measure the performance of the network
given disconnects occurring– Ranking of K Links affecting the network the most
© Gerard Ibarra, SMU 2005
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
System
System 412.2 268.0 479.6 383.8 402.5
Link a Link b Link c Link d Link e
DefinedLinks Link a Link b Link c Link d Link eLink 1 17.2 25.1 35.0 72.0 19.1Link 2 74.0 36.3 93.4 19.8 15.6Link 3 22.2 17.4 28.8 0.5 97.4Link 4 37.1 74.2 32.0 29.7 28.0Link 5 90.7 9.3 95.5 98.1 60.7Link 6 28.9 32.9 82.7 61.7 54.8Link 7 75.1 23.1 1.2 14.9 13.2Link 8 43.1 33.8 64.5 18.4 60.3Link 9 23.9 16.0 46.4 68.9 53.4System 412.2 268.0 479.6 383.8 402.5
Links in Network
Example of Model: Performance for a General Metric
OUTPUTS
Sum of Performance
, …,
Research Significance
© Gerard Ibarra, SMU 2005
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
400.0
450.0
500.0
(2, 11) (1, 11) (2, 12) (3, 14) (1, 12) (4, 7) (5, 6) (3, 8) (4, 8) (2, 5) (3, 8) (1, 2) (3, 5) (2, 4) (4, 5) (5, 8)
Example of Model
Links
Pe
rfo
rman
ce
Worst
Best
OUTPUTS
0 is threshold
K Links = {2,11}, …, {1,12}affecting the TransportationCI the most
Research Significance
© Gerard Ibarra, SMU 2005
Research Significance
• Decision Making Methodology and Tool
© Gerard Ibarra, SMU 2005
Resource Allocation
• Efficiently allocate extra resources– Fire– Police– Surveillance
© Gerard Ibarra, SMU 2005
Risk Mitigation
• Heighten Awareness
• Develop Emergency and Contingency Plans
• Increase Surveillance
• Response Faster
• Enhance Efficiency Coverage
© Gerard Ibarra, SMU 2005
Conclusion
• Proposed a Methodology using a Mathematical Model to Determine Impact of K Links Disconnects have on the Defined Links of a Network for risk mitigation and resource allocation
• Research Significance– Society: A Methodology and Tool for Officials to use in
the Decision Making Process– Engineering: Systems Engineering Approach for
Solving Complex Systems
Systems Engineering Program
Jerrell Stracener
Director and Scholar in Residence
http://engr.smu.edu/emis/sys/
© Gerard Ibarra, SMU 2005
School of Engineering Overview
Academic Departments
• Computer Science and Engineering
• Electrical Engineering
• Engineering Management, Information and Systems (EMIS)
• Environmental and Civil Engineering
• Mechanical Engineering
Department of EMISSMU School of Engineering
Leadership in Engineering
http://engr.smu.edu/emis/sys/
© Gerard Ibarra, SMU 2005
Program Overview
Systems Engineering
Program
*=planned
Academic Programs
Training Research
Center for Engineering Systems*
Department of EMISSMU School of Engineering
Leadership in Engineering
http://engr.smu.edu/emis/sys/
© Gerard Ibarra, SMU 2005
International Council on Systems Engineering
(INCOSE)
Raytheon RMS Partnership
SEP Partnerships
Lockheed Martin
Steve Kress, Lockheed Martin Missiles & Fire Control
Randy Moore,Lockheed Martin Aeronautics Company
Defense Acquisition University (DAU)
Russell Vacante DAU Headquarters
Brent Wells, SAS
Randy Case, NCS
Kent Pride, IIS
Gunter Daley UGS
Jerrell Stracener, SMU SEP
NDIA Systems Engineering Division
Bob Rassa Raytheon, SAS
Russell Vacante DAU Headquarters
Department of EMISSMU School of Engineering
Leadership in Engineering
http://engr.smu.edu/emis/sys/
© Gerard Ibarra, SMU 2005
Planned Research Focus
• U.S. Critical Infrastructure Modeling and Analysis utilizing Systems Engineering principles and methods (U.S. Navy SPAWAR CIPC Contract: April 2004)
• Systems Reliability Modeling & Analysis
• Defense System of Systems Modeling & Analysis utilizing Systems Engineering & Analysis principles and techniques
• Time to Failure Prediction Methodology based on based Prognostics and Health Management (PHM)
Department of EMISSMU School of Engineering
Leadership in Engineering
http://engr.smu.edu/emis/sys/
© Gerard Ibarra, SMU 2005
QUESTIONS