Transport Models as Climate Policy Evaluation Tools transport activity: Mode matters National...

© OECD/IEA, 2016

Transport Models as Climate Policy Evaluation Tools

COP 22, Marrakech, Morocco

12 November 2016

Jean-François Gagné

Energy Technology Policy Division Head

International Energy Agency

© OECD/IEA, 2016

IEA supports the low-carbon transition

IEA: the global energy authority Part of the OECD family

Founded in 1974 to co-ordinate a response to oil supply disruptions

2015: IEA Modernisation grounded on three main pillars

global energy security

energy cooperation and global dialogue

promoting an environmentally sustainable energy future

Build on a decade of analysis on what we need to do to keep temperature increase below 2°C

Now developing analysis on faster and deeper energy-sector decarbonisation

© OECD/IEA, 2016

Sizing the scale of the challenge…

The carbon intensity of the global economy can be cut by two-thirds through a diversified energy technology mix

Contribution of technology area to global cumulative CO2 reductions

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2013 2020 2030 2040 2050

GtC

O2

Renewables 32%

Energy efficiency 32%

Fuel switching 10%

Nuclear 11%

CCS 15%2DS

4DS

© OECD/IEA, 2016

… and its solutions

© OECD/IEA, 2016

But the challenge increases to get from 2 degrees to “well below” 2 degrees

© OECD/IEA, 2016

Energy- and process-related CO2 emissions by sector in the 2DS

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2013 2020 2030 2040 2050

GtC

O2

Agriculture 2%

Buildings 8%

Industry 33%

Transport 24%

Other transformation 4%

Power 29%

Industry and transport account for 75% of the remaining emissions in the 2DS in 2050.

© OECD/IEA, 2016

Today’s energy system paradigm is based on a unidirectional energy delivery philosophy

Centralised fuel production,power and storage

Systems thinking and integration

© OECD/IEA, 2016

A sustainable energy system is a smarter, multidirectional and integrated system that requires

long-term planning for services delivery

Centralised fuel production,power and storage

Renewable energy resources

EV

Co-generation

Smart energysystem control

Distributedenergy resources

Surplus heat

H vehicle2

Systems thinking and integration

© OECD/IEA, 2016

End-use sectors Service demands

Hybrid model

Industry

Long-term simulation

Buildings

Mobility Model (MoMo)

Transport

Primary energy Conversion sectors

Renewables

Fossil

Nuclear

Electricity T&D

Fuel conversion

Fuel/heat delivery ETP-TIMES (bottom-up optimisation)

Final energy

Electricity

Gasoline

Diesel

Natural gas

Heat

etc. Passenger mobility Freight transport

…

Space heating Water heating

Lighting …

Material demands …

ETP model finds cost-effective investment and operation of energy technologies to meet energy demands from now to 2050

ETP modelling framework

© OECD/IEA, 2016

Non-urban - Well to Tank Non-urban - Tank to Wheel

0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500

3 wheelers

Medium trucks

Light commercial

Rail

Shipping

Heavy trucks

Mt of CO2 equivalent

0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500

2 & 3 wheelers

Cars

Buses andminibuses

Rail

Air

Mt of CO2 equivalent

Urban - Well to Tank Urban - Tank to Wheel

Passenger Freight

Well-to-wheels GHG emissions in 2015, by mode

Understanding transport impacts: Mode matters

© OECD/IEA, 2016

Transport is the least diversified energy demand sector

Solutions need to be adapted transportation modes

© OECD/IEA, 2016

Passenger transport activity: Mode matters

National passenger transport activity (pkm) in 2015, by mode

France

United Kingdom

EU Nordic

Canada

United States

Mexico

Brazil

Other Latin America

Other Africa

South Africa

Middle East

India

ASEAN

Australia andNew Zealand

Japan

Korea

China

Russia

Germany

Italy

2-wheelers

3-wheelers

Small and medium cars

Large cars

Minibuses

Buses

Rail

1 trllionpkm

3 trllionpkm

5.5 trllionpkm

ETP_2016_Figure_01.10

Air

© OECD/IEA, 2016

While activity is almost 50% higher in China than in the US…

© OECD/IEA, 2016

Passenger transport energy use: Mode matters

National passenger transport energy use in 2015, by fuel

© OECD/IEA, 2016

While China’s activity is almost 50% higher than in the US…

Its total energy use is only a bit more than half that of the US

© OECD/IEA, 2016

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

GtC

O2-e

q

OECD

2DS

4DS6DS

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Non-OECD

6DS

4DS

2DS

Avoid/Shift Low-carbon fuels Vehicle efficiency

Avoid/Shift Low carbon fuels Vehicle efficiency

UrbanNon-urban

Need to decouple activity & emissions Avoid/shift, vehicle efficiency, low carbon fuels

GHG Emissions in the 2DS, 4DS, and 6DS – 2010 to 2050

© OECD/IEA, 2016

OECD transport emissions have peaked,

while Non-OECD transport emissions can be brought back to current levels in 2050

© OECD/IEA, 2016

Transport energy demand projections Policy and technology have great potential

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

100 110

2DS 4DS 6DS 2DS 4DS 6DS

2015 2050 2015 2050

Urban Non-urban

EJ

WorldOther

Hydrogen

Natural gas

Electricity

Biofuels

Liquid fuels fromfossil energy

Global Energy for Transport in 2015 & in 2050 in the ETP Scenarios

© OECD/IEA, 2016

2DS sees a net global decline in transport energy demand, but not in all regions

© OECD/IEA, 2016

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

We

ll to

wh

ee

l GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(Gt

CO

₂)

Aviation reduction

Shipping reduction

Rail reduction

Trucks reduction

Buses reduction

Cars and LCVs reduction

2 and 3 wheelers reduction

Aviation

Shipping

Rail

Trucks

Buses

Cars and LCVs

2 and 3 wheelers

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

We

ll to

wh

ee

l GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(Gt

CO

₂)

Aviation reduction

Shipping reduction

Rail reduction

Trucks reduction

Buses reduction



Aviation

Shipping

Rail

Trucks

Buses

Cars and LCVs

2 and 3 wheelers

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

We

ll to

wh

ee

l GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(Gt

CO

₂)

Aviation reduction

Shipping reduction

Rail reduction

Trucks reduction

Buses reduction



Aviation

Shipping

Rail

Trucks

Buses

Cars and LCVs

2 and 3 wheelers

GHG emission projections Current ETP scenarios - Transport

4DS

2DS

OECD

Non-OECD

World

© OECD/IEA, 2016

Moving below 2DS reductions in transport will require action in all transport modes

© OECD/IEA, 2016

Cars and LCVs

2-3 Wheelers

IEA 2DS level of ambitions – How can we move beyond?

© OECD/IEA, 2016

Trucks

Maritime transport


© OECD/IEA, 2016

Aviation

Cross-cutting Technologies

Biofuels

Hydrogen

Non-Technology Options

Modal Shifts

Urban Design/Logistics


© OECD/IEA, 2016

Implementing actions

Scope Policy category Impact

Avoid/Shift Vehicle

efficiency

Low carbon

fuels

Local Pricing (congestion charges, tolls

parking fees) Yes Possible none

Regulatory (access & parking

restrictions, low emission zones)Yes Possible Minor

Public transport investments Yes Possible none

Compact city Yes none none

National Fuel taxation Yes Yes Possible

Fuel economy regulations none Yes Possible

Vehicle taxation, feebates Possible Yes Possible

Low carbon fuel standards none none Yes

Alternative fuel mandates none none Yes

RD&D support none yes Yes


© OECD/IEA, 2016

Foundation of transport-related analysis in the IEA

Projections to 2050+, 29 global regions (including most of G20), all transportation modes except pipelines

Assess urban and non-urban activity, energy use, emissions (GHG, pollutants), infrastructure and materials demand

Shared with OECD Directorates (TAD), ITF

Developed in the framework of a partnership with major industrial and governmental stakeholders, some academic institutions and NGOs (MoMo partnership)

Sustainable Transport Systems analysis: the IEA Mobility Model and ETP

© OECD/IEA, 2016

ETP uses ASIF (activity–structure–intensity–fuel) methodology

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

Arg

en

tin

a

Au

stra

lia

Bra

zil

Ch

ile

Ch

ina

Fran

ce

Eg

yp

t

Ge

rman

y

Ind

ia

Ind

on

esia

Ita

ly

Jap

an

Mal

aysi

a

Me

xico

Po

rtu

gal

Ru

ssia

Sou

th A

fric

a

Spai

n

Thai

lan

d

Turk

ey

UK

Ukr

ain

e

USA

EU-2

7

Wo

rld

OEC

D

No

n-O

EC

D

l/1

00

km

2005

2008

2010

Activity = Distance travelled

Structure = Vehicle Stock

Intensity = Fuel Economy

Sustainable Transport Systems analysis: the IEA Mobility Model and ETP

© OECD/IEA, 2016

The IEA works around the world to support an

accelerated clean energy transition that is

enabled by real-world SOLUTIONS

supported by ANALYSIS

and built on DATA

© OECD/IEA, 2016

Flexible uses in conversion sector

Looking at interactions between energy technologies

Flexible generation

Demand side management

DSM

DSM

DSM

Potentials

Fuel costs Technical and economic

characteristics Electricity and heat demands

Load curves

Fuel demand

Generation mix New capacities

Electricity prices Average generation costs

Emissions

Electricity storage

Pumped storage

CAES

District heat storage

Process heat storage

Energy storage

Transport Models as Climate Policy Evaluation Tools transport activity: Mode matters National...

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