2020VISION FOR A SUSTAINABLE SOCIETY

MELBOURNE SUSTAINABLE SOCIETY INSTITUTE

The Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute (MSSI) at the University of Melbourne, Australia, brings together researchers from different disciplines to help create a more sustainable society. It acts as an information portal for research at the University of Melbourne, and as a collaborative platform where researchers and communities can work together to affect positive change. This book can be freely accessed from MSSI’s website: www.sustainable.unimelb.edu.au.

Cite as: Pearson, C.J. (editor) (2012). 2020: Vision for a Sustainable Society. Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute, University of Melbourne

Published by Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute in 2012 Ground Floor Alice Hoy Building (Blg 162) Monash Road The University of Melbourne, Parkville Victoria 3010, Australia

Text and copyright © Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced without prior permission of the publisher.

A Cataloguing-in-Publication entry is available from the catalogue of the National Library of Australia at www.nla.gov.au 2020: Vision for a Sustainable Society, ISBN: 978-0-7340-4773-1 (pbk)

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The last two centuries have seen extra-ordinary improvements in the quality of

human lives. Most people on earth today enjoy access to the necessities of life that was once available only to the elites. Most people enjoy longevity, health, education, information and opportunities to experience the variety of life on earth that was denied even to the rulers of yesteryear. The proportion of humanity living in absolute poverty remains daunting, but continues to fall decade by decade. The early 21st century has delivered an acceleration of the growth in living standards in the most populous developing countries and an historic lift in the trend of economic growth in the regions that had lagged behind, notably in Africa.

These beneficent developments are accom-panied by another reality. The improvements are not sustainable unless we make qualitative changes in the content of economic growth. The continuation of the current relationship between growth in the material standard of living and pressures on the natural environment will undermine economic growth, political

stability and the foundations of human achievement.

The good news is that humanity has already discovered and begun to apply the knowledge that can reconcile continued improvements in the standard of living with reduction of pressures on the natural environment.

The bad news is that the changes that are necessary to make high and rising standards of living sustainable are hard to achieve within our current political cultures and systems.

Hard, but not impossible. That is a central message from this book, drawn out in Craig Pearson’s concluding chapter.

This book introduces the reader to the many dimesions of sustainability, through well-qualified authors.

Climate change is only one mechanism through which current patterns of economic growth threaten the natural systems on which our prosperity depend. It is simply the most urgent of the existential threats.

Climate change is a special challenge for Australians. We are the most vulnerable of the

Foreword

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developed countries to climate change. And we are the developed country with the highest level of greenhouse gas emissions per person.

There are roles for private ethical decisions as well as public policy choices in dealing with the climate change challenge.

This book is released at the time of ‘Rio+20’, a conference in Brazil to review the relatively poor progress we have made towards sustainability in the past 20 years, and soon after the introduction of Australia’s first comprehensive policy response to the global challenge of climate change. Australia’s emissions trading scheme with an initially fixed price for emissions permits comes into effect on 1 July 2012. The new policy discourages activities that generate greenhouse gases by putting a price on emissions. The revenue raised by carbon pricing will be returned to households and businesses in ways that retain incentives to reduce emissions. Part of the revenue will be used to encourage production and use of goods and services that embody low emissions.

The policy has been launched in controversy. Interests that stand to gain from the discrediting of the policy argue that it is unnecessary either because the case for global action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and the associated climate change has not been proven, or that the new policy places a disproportionate burden on Australians.

The health of our civilisation requires us to bring scientific knowledge to account in public policy. Everyone who shares the knowledge that is the common heritage of humanity has

a responsibility to explain the realities to others wherever and whenever they can.

The argument that the new policy places a disproportionate burden on Australians can be answered by seeking honestly to understand what others are doing.

The critics of Australian policy argue that the world’s two largest national emitters of greenhouse gases, China and the United States, are doing little or nothing to reduce emissions, so that it is either pointless or unnecessary for us to do so.

China has advanced a long way towards achieving its target of reducing emissions as a proportion of economic output by 40 to 45 per cent between 2005 and 2020. It has done this by forcing the closure of emissions-intensive plants and processes that have exceptionally high levels of emissions per unit of output, by imposing high emissions standards on new plants and processes, by charging emissions-intensive activities higher electricity prices, by subsidising the introduction of low-emissions activities, and by new and higher taxes on fossil fuels. China has introduced trials of an emissions trading system in five major cities and two provinces. This adds up to a cost on business and the community that exceeds any burden placed on Australians by the new policies – bearing in mind that the revenue from Australian carbon pricing is returned to households and businesses.

The US Government has advised the inter-national community of its domestic policy target to reduce 2005 emissions by 17 per cent by 2020. President Barack Obama said

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to the Australian Parliament that all countries should take seriously the targets that they had reported to the international community, and made it clear that the United States did so. United States efforts to reduce emissions are diffuse but far-reaching. They now include controls on emissions from electricity generators, announced in March 2012, effectively excluding any new coal-based power generation after the end of this year unless it embodies carbon capture and storage. From the beginning of next year they will include an emissions trading system in the most populous and economically largest state, California.

The United States is making reasonable progress towards reaching its emissions reduc-tion goals, with some actions imposing high costs on domestic households and businesses.

Australia has now taken steps through which we can do our fair share in the international effort, at reasonable cost. It would be much harder and more costly to do our fair share without the policies that are soon to take effect.

What Australians do over the next few years will have a significant influence on humanity’s prospects for handing on the benefits of modern civilisation to future generations. This book will help Australians to understand their part in the global effort for sustainability.

Ross GarnautUniversity of Melbourne

15 April 2012

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ContentsForeword by Ross Garnaut v

Table of Contents viii

Author Biographies x

Drivers 1

1 2

2 10

3 17

4 27

5 37

People 47

6 48

7 57

8 64

9 70

10 79

11 86

12 94

13 104

14 114

PopulationRebecca Kippen and Peter McDonald

Equity Helen Sykes

ConsumptionCraig Pearson

GreenhouseGasEmissionsandClimateChangeDavid Karoly

EnergyPeter Seligman

EthicsCraig Prebble

CultureAudrey Yue and Rimi Khan

AwarenessandBehaviourAngela Paladino

LocalMattersMatterKate Auty

PublicWisdomTim van Gelder

MentalHealthGrant Blashki

DiseasePeter Doherty

CorporateSustainabilityLiza Maimone

GovernanceJohn Brumby

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NaturalResources 123

15 124

16 132

17 141

18 150

Cities 161

19 162

20 170

21 177

22 184

23 192

24 200

25 210

Outcomes 221

26 222

Further Reading 234

Index 241

Ecosystem-BasedAdaptationRodney Keenan

WaterHector Malano and Brian Davidson

FoodSunday McKay and Rebecca Ford

ZeroCarbonLand-UseChris Taylor and Adrian Whitehead

ChangingCitiesPeter Newman and Carolyn Ingvarson

AffordableLivingThomas Kvan and Justyna Karakiewicz

BuiltEnvironmentPru Sanderson

InfrastructureColin Duffield

TransportMonique Conheady

AdaptiveDesignRay Green

HandlingDisastersAlan March

TwentyActionsCraig Pearson

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TransportMonique Conheady

Figure 1. Transport emissions in 2009. Source: Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency.

Transport systems provide social and economic connections, moving people

and goods between places and linking communities. For most of human history, transportation depended on walking, domes-ticated animals and small boats; long-distance walking tracks developed into trade routes and societies evolved through the exchange of ideas and innovation.

Since ancient trade routes, the history of transportation has been largely one of technological innovation. We have created extremely sophisticated transport systems to serve the needs of the world today. But too

little attention has been paid to meeting the world’s needs of tomorrow. We have only recently realised or accepted the negative impacts of our transport systems on the long-term sustainability of our environment, society and economy. We have, you could say, reached an intersection.

Environmental ImpactsThe transport sector accounts for between 20 and 25 per cent of world energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions. Furthermore, greenhouse gas emissions from transport are increasing at a faster rate than any other sector,

according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report in 2007.

In Australia the average individual emits 44 per cent of their greenhouse gases as a result of travel. This is the result of our personal transport system being primarily designed around the private automobile. Passenger cars will make up 53 per cent of Australian transport emissions in 2020, or 8 per cent of total emissions, according to a report by Climate Works Australia. Road-based transport is also a major contributor to local air pollution and smog.

Passenger cars

Domesticaviation

RailwaysDomestic shipping

Lightcommercial

vehiclesMotorcycles

Off-road recreational

Buses

Trucks

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Transport

A short history of mechanised transport

By road

1662 Horse-drawn public bus line started

1769 Steam-powered self-propelled car

1804 First full-scale railway steam locomotive

1817 Bicycle invented

1825 Scheduled public railway transportation starts with Stephenson’s Stockton and Darlington Railway

1863 London underground rail opens

1888 Mass-production of petrol-powered cars begins

1897 Battery-powered taxi fleet introduced in New York

1908 Model T Ford launched, the first widely affordable car, manufactured by assembly-line

2004 Commercial electric cars launched

By air and sea

1818 First scheduled passenger ship service, New York to England

1903 First flight of fixed-wing self-propelled flying machine

1919 First scheduled passenger airship service, in Germany

1919 KLM, oldest surviving airline, begins. Qantas starts following year.

Social ImpactsThe social costs of Australia’s current road-based transport system are numerous – from road accidents to the health hazard of air pollution. Motorised transport is also a contributor to our increasingly sedentary lifestyle, which brings its own negative health impacts, including obesity, cardiovascular disease and diabetes. The direct links between transport systems and obesity are becoming better understood. Australia, with one of the highest rates of car ownership in the world and a transport system focused on the private car, also has one of the highest rates of obesity in the world.

It is speculated that a car-dominated transport system may be a contributing factor to the increasing incidences of depression in Western societies, which has been linked to urban sprawl. We know social isolation is a major factor in depression, and in car-dominated societies people live further apart and spend a lot of time travelling alone.

Economic ImpactsThe financial cost of road accidents in Australia was estimated by the Australian Government in 2009 to be upward of $17 billion annually. Furthermore, as our cities become more and more congested with automotive traffic, there are costs to the efficiency and productivity of our economy. Traffic congestion imposes economic costs by wasting people’s time and by slowing the delivery of goods and services. The Australian Government has projected that the financial costs of congestion will continue to rise strongly to an estimated $20.4 billion by 2020.

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Figure 2. Relationship between active transport and obesity. Source: ‘Walking, Cycling, and Obesity Rates in Europe, North America, and Australia’, Journal of Physical Activity and Health, 2008.

Another economic factor related to our road-based transport system is the impact of ‘peak oil’ or the ‘oil crunch’. To date, petrol has been relatively cheap and has been one of the reasons our vehicle-based transport system has flourished. However, oil is a finite resource and geologists, scientists, engineers and economists are now saying that we have either reached, or will soon reach, a peak in oil production. Therefore, supply and demand dynamics are likely to result in increasingly more expensive petrol over time, which will impact the cost of living and economic productivity.

This economic impact has a social consequence as it is often those that have few alternatives to private car transport, due to a lack of public transport and other services in their area, that are the ones most vulnerable to fuel price increases.

So if we know that our road-based transport system is affecting our climate, our waistlines and the air we breathe, while costing us a lot of money and possibly making us depressed, what can we do about it?

Country

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

% o

f Cou

ntry

Latvia

Sweden

Netherl

ands

Canad

a

Australia US

% Use ActiveTransportation% Obese

Percentage of ActiveTransportation Use and

Obesity Rate Per Country

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Transport

Figure 3. Vulnerability assessment for mortgage, petrol and inflation risks and expenditure. Source: ‘Unsettling Suburbia: The New Landscape of Oil and Mortgage Vulnerability in Australian Cities’, Jago Dodson and Neil Sipe, Urban Research Program, research paper No. 17 August 2008.

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9.

WALKING

8. CYCLING (including public bikes)

7. PUBLIC TRANSPORT/RAPID MASS TRANSIT

6. PUBLIC CARS/CAR SHARING

5. TAXIS4. RIDE SHARING

3. PRIVATE CAR

2.

AIR TRAVEL

1. SPACE TRAVEL

Vision of a Sustainable Transport FutureThe road to a sustainable transport future should draw on our knowledge of transport history: the simplicity of our transport systems for much of human history, as well as opportunities offered by technological innovation.

A vision for a sustainable personal transport system might be framed within a pyramid model, like the ‘healthy eating pyramid’ we know from nutritional studies that has been adapted for transport. It would be an inter-model system, and like the healthy eating pyramid it would be those transport modes at the bottom of the pyramid that we should use most frequently, ascending through a personal transport hierarchy to those activities at the top of the pyramid that we should do least. A sustainable transport system of the future would make it easy for us to choose the ones that are best for us and for the planet.

WalkingWalking is good for our health, for our communities and for our environment. Walking was the main form of transport throughout much of human history and, in a sustainable future, it will be again. Our urban landscapes will be redesigned with a focus on walkability and ease of access to key community services. Everyone will walk a minimum of several hundred metres a day, and public awareness campaigns (similar to those on water and energy saving) will bring walking to the fore.

Cycling Cycling will be strongly promoted and provide a critical contribution to sustainable transport. Bicycle infrastructure, including bike paths and lanes, frames for securing bikes and end of trip facilities (lockers, showers etc) will be abundant. Most people will own a bike and ride it most days.

A healthy transport pyramid approach to sustainable mobility.

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Transport

Public Bikes There will also be public bike schemes that provide on-demand access to a bicycle as and when people might need one. These schemes will be operated by a smartcard system that ‘talks’ to other parts of the public transport system, which in a sustainable future would include trams, trains, buses, ferries, shared cars and taxis. One smartcard will give most people access to all their transport needs. It will be a cost-effective, clean, efficient, fast, reliable and flexible system. Most people will not require anything more.

Public Transport/Rapid Mass TransitFor a sustainable transport system, there will be significant investment made in public transport, in recognition of its community and environmental benefits. The public transport system will work at a range of scales – locally through to large rapid mass transit scale.

Services will be so frequent that timetables will not be required. You will never have to wait more than a few minutes for the next service. At this frequency services are not overcrowded. All the trains, trams, buses and ferries are clean and comfortable, and also offer free wireless connections enabling people to access the internet, work if need be, connect to their virtual communities, etc. If we had a public transport system like this, a significant percentage of the population would use it every day, and the majority of the population would use it regularly.

Public Cars/Car SharingCars will exist, but they will be powered by clean electricity, such as wind and solar, and usually shared. Indeed all cars parked on public roads will be public cars, with all private cars being required to park off-street in private car parks. We will have come to realise just how inefficient private cars are when one car can serve the needs of 20–30 people.

Local streets will all contain a pod of cars – enough to serve the number of residents of the particular street – plugged into electricity banks that look like parking meters when they are not in use. Residents will use a ‘swipe & go’ smartcard system to access the vehicles and only pay per trip. These cars will be used for trips where people are carrying large loads, travelling cross-city or getting out of town to places not well served by public transport. The use of these public cars will vary, with most people using them between once a week to once

a month.

TaxisTaxis will continue to play a very important role in the public transport network, especially for complicated one-way trips. Due to the need to be always on the road, taxis will not be able to make the most of the greenest car technology, but will have improved performance via the use of LPG and hybrid technology. We will have greater respect for taxi drivers. Notably this will be demonstrated by paying more for this valuable service to ensure drivers achieve at least minimum wage. In return, the

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community will benefit through an improved taxi service, one that is cleaner and with more knowledge on locations and directions. The use of taxis will also vary, with most people using a taxi between once a week to once a month.

Private Car OwnershipPrivate car ownership will still exist, primarily in the outer suburban areas where the poor planning regimes of the past mean that

walking and cycling to local services is not practical, public transport services were not planned, and public bike and car share scheme are difficult to operate due to a lack of population density.

These areas will sadly be our poorest neighbourhoods; their lack of transport options affecting the strength and connectivity of their communities, the health and wellbeing of their residents, and residents’ ability to access education, training and employment opportunities. These will be the communities we will be focusing most attention on in terms of improving the public transport network and

eventually redesigning both the local economy and built environment to incorporate more local lifestyles.

The upside is that these vehicles will be fuelled by cleaner technology. They will be plugged into charging stations in the garages of homes in outer-suburban areas.

Ride SharingThe other benefit of continuing private car ownership will be the emergence of greater ride-sharing. Road pricing will encourage private car owners to share their trips, and the costs, with others. Social networking sites and mobile phone applications will enable people to easily log their trip plans, connect with others travelling in the same direction, check out their profiles and traveller recommendation reports (like eBay seller reports) and easily arrange coordinated pick-up and drop-off points. Using a private resource in the public domain will strengthen community and interpersonal

relationships. Most private car owners will make the most of their trips with ride sharers. Solo private car trips will be rare.

Air TravelAir travel may become cost prohibitive for many people as the true cost of carbon and pollution is factored in. However, the scientists and engineers who remember the extraordinary benefits of air travel in terms of cultural exchange and understanding, and an appreciation for the arts, music, architecture and the natural world, will work hard to engineer a clean fuel that can power air travel.

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Transport

It may be a biofuel, perhaps made of algae. This will again provide future generations with the enormous benefits that air travel has given us in the past 50 years. Most people will take one flight a year; some will take multiple trips per year.

Space TravelAnd so it will be an understanding and appreciation of our transport history – of the most basic forms of transport, alongside technical innovation – that will lead us to a sustainable transport future. And if we achieve this sustainable future, there may even be one more trip in store for all human beings. A trip that will make the journey to a sustainable lifestyle worthwhile…

After finding a clean fuel solution for air travel, our brightest scientists and engineers will focus their attention on finding a clean fuel solution to space travel. A difficult challenge but a solution such as a biofuel or liquid

hydrogen will most likely be found. This will enable each of us to take a once-in-a-life-time trip. The clean green trip we take to outer space will be life changing. We will see for ourselves the image of the earth from outer space. It will seem so small that we could hold it in the palm of our hand. We will finally understand truly, deeply, innately the interconnectedness of our planet and all the creatures on it. We will realise we have nowhere else to go and that we must therefore share the earth’s resources equitably and work together to protect its future. When we return from this trip we will be changed forever,

thankful we made the changes we did, and willing to make more to ensure the future of the planet and all its creatures.

ACTIONS FOR 2020To achieve a sustainable transport future we need a transport system that offers us a range of easy-to-use, integrated modes. We need to invest in developing an expanded and integrated public transport system that includes bikes, trams, trains, buses, ferries, shared cars and taxis, all accessed and paid for by one public transport smartcard ticket. Cars need to be powered differently. All this is possible through technological innovation.

However, more than this we need to move beyond a paradigm of people being wedded to their particular preferred form of transport: whether that is the automobile, public transport or cycling. We need everyone to be doing a bit of everything, clearly understanding the cost and the benefits of each mode. Not just the

environmental costs and benefits, but also the health, economic and social costs and benefits, and therefore when it is most suitable to use each mode. A coordinated public awareness campaign, with the promotion of a healthy transport pyramid approach to sustainable mobility, is a good first step.

Further Reading

Transport Australian Government (2007). ‘Estimating urban traffic and congestion cost trends for Australian cities, Working paper 71’, Bureau of Transport and Regional Economics.Australian Government (2009). ‘Road crash costs in Australia 2006, Report 118’, Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics.Bassett, D., et al. (2008). ‘Walking, Cycling, and Obesity Rates in Europe, North America and Australia’, Journal of Physical Activity and Health.Climate Works Australia (2010). ‘Low Carbon Growth Plan for Australia’, Climate Works Australia. Frumkin, H., Frank, L., Jackson, R. (2004). ‘Urban sprawl and public health: designing, planning, and building for healthy communities’, Island Press. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007). ‘IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Mitigation of Climate Change, chapter 5, Transport and its Infrastructure’, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.World Energy Council (2007), ‘Transport Technologies and Policy Scenarios’, World Energy Council.