Transnet Pipelines 2013/14 tariff Decision
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Transcript of Transnet Pipelines 2013/14 tariff Decision
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Transnet Pipelines2013/14 tariff Decision
Presentation to Parliamentary Portfolio Committee on Energy
27th March 2013
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• Transnet has a network of 32 Pipelines
• Approx 3,800km of pipelines
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Transnet NMPP project
• Transnet: 24” Durban to Gauteng + other– Running more than 3 years late. Not complete yet– Scheduled completion Q3 2010 – latest Q4 2013– Cost escalations:
• Initial estimate R9.5bn• 2007 R 11 bn• 2009 R 12.6 bn• 2010 R 15.4 bn• 2010 R 23.4 bn • next ????
• NMPP = big influence on tariffs• “User pays” policy - motorists carry the bigger burden.
Budget speech – no mention of further help• Minister of Public Enterprises commissioned
investigation. • NERSA starting a prudency review of NMPP
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Public consultation on tariffs
EVENT DATE
Application published for public comment
17 Sep 2012
Draft tariff decision published for public comment
03 Dec 2012
Consultations with Government Departments
Nov - Jan
Public Hearing 14 Jan 2013
NERSA decision 13 March 2013
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Decision: Allowable Revenue
• Transnet application: + 22.6%
• NERSA: + 8.5%
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Notable “issues” in this application1. Single year tariff application instead of multi-
year
2. Large clawback
3. Decline in volumes – total network volumes decline
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2013/14 Application vs. NERSA
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TransnetApplication
R million/%
NERSA decision
R million / %
Regulatory Asset Base 19,155.80 19,900.35
Weighted Average Cost of Cap 5.47% 5.79%
WACC ReturnOperational ExpensesDepreciationF-factorClawbackClawback defermentTax allowance
1,047.501,007.30
453.70466.10
(315.43)
498.40
1,152.77913.67483.97
0.00(453.51)
226.76471.96
Allowable Revenue (AR) 3,157.57 2,795.61
% increase in AR 22.58% 8.53%
Debt ratioEBIT/ Interest cover
55.82%2.00
40.52%2.05
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Decision 1.4 c/l
Impact on inland petrol price ULP 93
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April 2013 (est.)Petrol ULP
93 (c/l)
Basic Fuels Price 773.590Incremental Inland Transport Recovery Cost 3.000
Wholesale Margin 58.000
Petroeum Products Levy 0.150
Transport Cost 26.800
Delivery Cost 25.500
Retail Margin 99.200Demand side management levy 0.000
Slate Levy 10.960
RAF 96.000
Customs &excise 4.000
Fuel tax 220.0
Rounding 0.3
Retail price 1317.500
%
International component + refining margin
59
Taxes & Levies
25
Administered prices
16 100
Petrol price structure
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Cost drivers:•Accident rate•Admin costs
Small businessJob creation 26c/l
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Pipeline Volumes• Lower volumes = higher tariffs = higher
inland fuel prices
• NERSA concerned Transnet annual report for 2011/12: 7.1% reduction in total volumes
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Lit
res
Transnet Pipeline Volumes trended monthlyRefined Dbn - Gauteg
Crude Inland Network Total System
Decline in volumes
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Decline in volumes
Possible reasons:
1. Price regulation:a) Incremental Inland Transport Cost Recovery Levy;
b) Revised service differential in petrol price regulation - unintended consequence;
2.Oil companies: changing procurement and marketing strategies;
3.Market/Transnet: Increased demand for niche products not transported in pipelines;
4.Economy: lower/flat growth in fuel demand.
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• NERSA collaborating with DoE to see what, if anything, can be done
• Transnet forecast 4.6% increase in volumes in 2013/14
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Thank You
18www.nersa.org.za