Transitions in SE Europe and the post-Soviet space; a cross-

regional comparison

Othon AnastasakisSouth East European Studies at Oxford (SEESOX)University of Oxford

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Regional Transition Trajectories

Fast-track transition: Central and East European countries; EU member-states

Slow-track transition: South East Europe, especially Western Balkan states; EU candidate and potential candidate states

Unfinished transition: post-Soviet states; European neighbourhood

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Delayed transition: SE Europe

Past the reconstruction phase towards normalisation

Party politics and democratically elected governments

Some political and economic achievements Developing civil societies On the road to EU integration through

stabilisation and association process

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South East Europe/Western Balkans: Political vulnerabilities

Weak states and state-building issues Electoral politics often divisive and polarised Mixed party constellations composed by liberal and

illiberal forces; nationalists and Europeanists Weak rule of law; issues of corruption and organised

crime at regional and national levels Ethnic issues (Serbian nationalism, Albanian

nationalism, ethnic polarisation in Bosnia) External dependency and foreign interferences

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South East Europe; economic gains

Sustained growth during last years Increasing wages and inflation under control Some regional interaction and cooperation Foreign direct investment (especially Serbia

and Croatia) & flows into real estate Regional energy routes Increasing economic interaction with the EU

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Economic vulnerabilities

Institutional limitations Problems with the rule of law Infrastructure difficulties Unemployment Limited competitiveness Political obstacles Small markets Limited regional cooperation

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Euro-atlantic integration

Common EU and NATO orientation Different speeds in the association and

stabilisation process No firm commitment towards EU membership;

EU enlargement fatigue; limited economic interest in the region

Intermediate EU carrots (visa, trade, financial assistance)

Recent EU progress with W. Balkan states

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Country challenges

EU Accession of Croatia Sustainability of the state of Kosovo Keeping Serbia on the EU track Addressing the central state in Bosnia-Herzegovina Strengthening constitutional framework in FYR

Macedonia Political backwardness of Albania Capacity building in Montenegro

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Unfinished, hybrid transition; East European neighbourhood

Fragmentation of the post-Soviet space Diversity of political trajectories Economic drawbacks Diversity of relations with Europe Strong influence of Russia Other extra-regional actors (Turkey, China, Iran,

USA) Crucial geo-strategic status Increasing attention turning to this area

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At the rim of Euro-atlantic integration

Unpredictable euro-atlantic prospects European Neighbourhood policy as a privileged

relationship Increasing interest from some EU member-states for

the East (Poland & Sweden’s eastern partnership initiative)

Competition with the Middle East and the Mediterranean side of the European neighbourhood (French interest)

Increasing role of the Black Sea as an area of cooperation among heterogeneous states

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Political challenges

Drawbacks with coloured revolutions Electoral-party politics Diversity of regimes ranging from semi-democracies

to authoritarianism Frozen conflicts and breakaway regions (Abkhazia,

Nagorno-Karabakh,South Ossetia, Trans-Dniester) Redirecting their focus away from Russia and closer

to the West

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Economic challenges

Macro-economic instability Double digit inflations Political impediments to investment Cheaper labour Competing economic interests among states

and groups of states

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National trajectories

Ukraine, advancing democracy, full fledged member of ENP and closer links with the West, yet divided with strong Russian eastern influence

Moldova and Armenia are introducing democratic reforms with a look to the West

Georgia on the road to democratic reform yet with electoral drawbacks and a very antagonistic relationship with Russia

Belarus authoritarianism and energy blackmail to the West; idea of a union with Russia

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Concerns from Europe’s eastern neighbourhood

Border issues and migration Environmental degradation Energy supply Political instability Security concerns Competition with Russia Europe’s borders

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The two regions compared

Similar communist legacies but with some differences Both regions have pockets of instability Ethnic conflicts addressed in the Balkans, less addressed in

the former Soviet space Democratisation is more advanced in the W. Balkans The post-Soviet space is economically and strategically more

important, bigger and vital in resources EU influence vs Russian influence More advanced regionalism in South East Europe Bigger western linkage and leverage for W. Balkans