Transition to 15 ppm ULSD
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Transcript of Transition to 15 ppm ULSD
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ULSD Workshop
November 20-21, 2002
Houston, TX
Transition to 15 ppmTransition to 15 ppmULSD ULSD
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Experiences to Draw onExperiences to Draw on
• Annual RVP change over – since 1989
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Experiences to Draw onExperiences to Draw on
• Annual RVP change over – since 1989
• Introduction of Oxygenated Gasoline – 1992
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Experiences to Draw onExperiences to Draw on
• Annual RVP change over – since 1989
• Introduction of Oxygenated Gasoline – 1992
• Introduction of low sulfur diesel fuel – 1993
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Experiences to Draw onExperiences to Draw on
• Annual RVP change over – since 1989
• Introduction of Oxygenated Gasoline – 1992
• Introduction of low sulfur diesel fuel – 1993
• Introduction of Simple Model RFG – 1995
![Page 6: Transition to 15 ppm ULSD](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062500/5681572a550346895dc4c589/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
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Experiences to Draw onExperiences to Draw on
• Annual RVP change over – since 1989
• Introduction of Oxygenated Gasoline – 1992
• Introduction of low sulfur diesel fuel – 1993
• Introduction of Simple Model RFG – 1995
• Introduction of Complex Model RFG – 1998
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After Further ReviewAfter Further Review
• Annual RVP change over – since 1989– Can produce blends below the maximum RVP to
facilitate turn over
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After Further ReviewAfter Further Review
• Annual RVP change over – since 1989
• Introduction of Oxygenated Gasoline – 1992– Plenty of room between maximum oxygen limit and
minimum specification requirement
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After Further ReviewAfter Further Review
• Annual RVP change over – since 1989
• Introduction of Oxygenated Gasoline – 1992
• Introduction of Simple Model RFG – 1995– Very similar to RVP change over
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After Further ReviewAfter Further Review
• Annual RVP change over – since 1989
• Introduction of Oxygenated Gasoline – 1992
• Introduction of Simple Model RFG – 1995
• Introduction of Complex Model RFG – 1998– Again, very similar to RVP change over
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After Further ReviewAfter Further Review
• Annual RVP change over – since 1989
• Introduction of Oxygenated Gasoline – 1992
• Introduction of Simple Model RFG – 1995
• Introduction of Complex Model RFG – 1998
• Introduction of Low Sulfur Diesel Fuel – 1993– Some things are the same– Some things are different
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After Further, Further ReviewAfter Further, Further Review
• Introduction of low sulfur diesel fuel in 1993 will be the closest parallel for ULSD
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Things That Are The SameThings That Are The Same
• Introduction of new product
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Things That Are The SameThings That Are The Same
• Introduction of new product
• Drop dead compliance date
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Things That Are The SameThings That Are The Same
• Introduction of new product
• Drop dead compliance date
• Immediate demand for product
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Things That Are The SameThings That Are The Same
• Introduction of new product
• Drop dead compliance date
• Immediate demand for product
• Choices to make
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Things That Are The SameThings That Are The Same
• Introduction of new product
• Drop dead compliance date
• Immediate demand for product
• Choices to make
• Adjustments to operations
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Things That Are The SameThings That Are The Same
• Introduction of new product
• Drop dead compliance date
• Immediate demand for product
• Choices to make
• Adjustments to operations
• Division of facilities or new construction
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Things That Are DifferentThings That Are Different
• Competing product still being marketed
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Things That Are DifferentThings That Are Different
• Competing product still being marketed• Refinery Production is regulated 80/20, 100/0
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Things That Are DifferentThings That Are Different
• Competing product still being marketed• Refinery Production is regulated 80/20, 100/0• Initial need (verses demand) is zero, demand is…
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Things That Are DifferentThings That Are Different
• Competing product still being marketed• Refinery Production is regulated 80/20, 100/0• Initial need (verses demand) is zero, demand is…• Choices are short term
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Things That Are DifferentThings That Are Different
• Competing product still being marketed• Refinery Production is regulated 80/20, 100/0• Initial need (verses demand) is zero, demand is…• Choices are short term• Radical changes to operations
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Things That Are DifferentThings That Are Different
• Competing product still being marketed• Refinery Production is regulated 80/20, 100/0• Initial need (verses demand) is zero, demand is…• Choices are short term• Radical changes to operations• Sulfur Credits
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Things That Are DifferentThings That Are Different
• Competing product still being marketed• Refinery Production is regulated 80/20, 100/0• Initial need (verses demand) is zero, demand is…• Choices are short term• Radical changes to operations• Sulfur Credits• Small refinery exclusion
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Things That Are DifferentThings That Are Different
• Competing product still being marketed• Refinery Production is regulated 80/20, 100/0• Initial need (verses demand) is zero, demand is…• Choices are short term• Radical changes to operations• Sulfur Credits• Small refinery exclusion• Degrees of magnitude 3000 – 500 vs 400 - 15
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Physical Transition, Initial stagingPhysical Transition, Initial staging
• June 1 – July ?
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Physical Transition, Initial stagingPhysical Transition, Initial staging
• June 1 – July ?
• Won’t be without problems
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Physical Transition, Initial stagingPhysical Transition, Initial staging
• June 1 – July ?
• Won’t be without problems
• We have “outs” at this point
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Physical Transition, Initial stagingPhysical Transition, Initial staging
• June 1 – July ?
• Won’t be without problems
• We have “outs” at this point– Downgrades
– Little or no demand
– Time
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Now Things Get InterestingNow Things Get Interesting
• July ? – August 31
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Now Things Get InterestingNow Things Get Interesting
• July ? – August 31• Pace of downstream conversions
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Now Things Get InterestingNow Things Get Interesting
• July ? – August 31• Pace of downstream conversions• Who/how many will handle both products?
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Now Things Get InterestingNow Things Get Interesting
• July ? – August 31• Pace of downstream conversions• Who/how many will handle both products?• Price differential vs inventory
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Now Things Get InterestingNow Things Get Interesting
• July ? – August 31• Pace of downstream conversions• Who/how many will handle both products?• Price differential vs inventory• Use of Credits?
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Now Things Get InterestingNow Things Get Interesting
• July ? – August 31• Pace of downstream conversions• Who/how many will handle both products?• Price differential vs inventory• Use of Credits?• Out of the wood work/None to be had
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September 1, 2006September 1, 2006
• A non-event
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September 1, 2006September 1, 2006
• A non-event– No overnight change
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September 1, 2006September 1, 2006
• A non-event– No overnight change– Production control, 80/20
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September 1, 2006September 1, 2006
• A non-event– No overnight change– Production control, 80/20– No major distribution problems
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ULSD Workshop
November 20-21, 2002
Houston, TX
Transition to 15 ppmTransition to 15 ppmULSD ULSD