Transition management past and future

Dr. Derk LoorbachIST Zurich, 21-06-2013

Dr. Derk LoorbachIST Zurich, 21-06-2013

What is transition management?

• Way to think about and act upon agency in transitions

• Governance theory and framework

• Operationalized method and set of systemic instruments

2000-2010

Policy sciences

Sustainable Development

Complexity theory

Sociology

Technology studies

1980s

2000

Modeling

Multi - level

Multi fase TM

Climate research

Onzerkerh .

Klimaat modellen

Scene

IA

structuratie

management

SCOT

Transitie

Niche CTA

History

Innovation studies

1990s

Multi - level

Multi-fase

Uncertainty . CAS

Scaling

Climate

models

3P governance

IA

Structuration

Management

SCOT

Transition

Niche CTA

Uncertainty

Transition Management

TM 1.0

Monitoring, evaluating

and learning

Developing images

coalitions and transition-agendas

Mobilizing actors and executing projects and

experiments

Problem structuring, establishment of the transition arena and

envisioning

society

Transition arenaRegular policy arena

- Short term- Peloton - Incremental change- Problem- and goal oriented

- Long term- Frontrunners - System-innovation- Problem- and goal searching

Predevelopment-based:Creating space

Problem structuring/envisioningExperimentation

Toolls/instruments

Theoretical evolution (1)• Complex systems perspective on transition dynamics (De

Haan & Rotmans 2011, De Haan 2010, Loorbach et al. 2012, Loorbach and Frantzeskaki 2012, Frantzeskaki & De Haan 2009,)

• Integrated sustainability assessment (Grosskurth & Rotmans 2005, Rotmans 2006, Rotmans et al. 2008)

• TM in relation to sustainability governance and policy design (Frantzeskaki et al. 2012a, Loorbach et al 2011, Avelino 2009)

• Participatory methods for transition management (Van den Bosch & Rotmans 2008, Wittmayer et al. 2009, Sondeijker 2009, Van den Bosch 2010, Frantzeskaki et al 2012c, Roorda et al. 2012, Taanman et al. 2012)

• Urban innovation processes (Loorbach 2009, Frantzeskaki et al. 2012b, Wittmayer et al. 2012, Roorda et al. 2012, Roorda 2012, Van Steenbergen et al. 2012, Lodder & Krosse 2012)

Theoretical evolution (2)

• Analyses of sectoral transitions: energy (Loorbach & Verbong 2012), mobility (Zijlstra & Avelino 2012, Avelino et al. 2012), health care (Van Raak & De Haan forthcoming), water (Van der Brugge 2009, Frantzeskaki 2011), and infrasystems (Frantzeskaki & Loorbach 2010)

• Grassroots innovations, social movements, social economy and self-organisation (Avelino & Kunze 2009, Wittmayer 2011, Avelino et al. 2012)

• Transitions in relation to socio-ecological resilience and biodiversity (Van der Brugge & Van Raak 2007, Van der Brugge 2009, Westley et al. 2011, Frantzeskaki 2011)

• Power, politics, discourse and other critical engagements with transition studies (Jhagroe 2011, Avelino 2011, Jhagroe & Wijsman 2011, Eshuis, et al. 2012, Van Steenbergen & Wittmayer 2012, Wittmayer 2012, Jhagroe & Frantzeskaki 2012)

• Transition perspectives on the economic crisis (Lijnis Huffenreuter 2012) and the role of business (Wijsman & Loorbach 2012)

Tools TM 1.0

SCENE patterns actor analysisproblem analysis

TRANSCEreflexive

monitoring

monitoringframeworktrans. indicators

MLP

DBUDeepening, broadening, upscaling

transitioning

actor selection

expert-arena

system analysis

arena

agendaexperiments

evaluation

TM multiple participatory tools

2010-2020

20 culturele organisaties > 100.000 bezoekers

Transitie UGent38.000

studenten7.100 staf

Onderzoek biogas uit

GFT

Mobiliteitsarena

938 mobbers

Begeleidingstraject KMO’s

KLIMAAT-ARENA

Inspiratie partijprogramma’s

Klimaatwerkgroep stadslandbouw

KWG EE in bedrijven

KWG valorisatie rioolwater en GFT

KWG Kunstsector

KWG mobiliteit

KWG consument duwt markt

Onderzoek ESCO’s

(in opstart)

CEIP meets GMS

Transition

Networks

Transition Experime

nts

Transition

Arena

Phase IIIFraming the transition

Phase IVEnvisioning a

sustainable city

Phase VReconnecting long

term & short term

Phase VI

Going into action

Transition Team

Phase ISetting the

scene

Phase IIExploring dynamics

Phase VII

Engaging & anchoring

DiversityEmergenceDiscourseConflicts

Pathways Lock-in

First movers

DiversityEmergenceDiscourseConflicts

Pathways Lock-in

First movers

Boundary shifting & reconnecting

Storylines shiftingand new emerge

Spawning & Multiplying

Dampening

Legitimacy Inclusivity Diversity

Scalability Speed of changeJustice Time

Glocal

Legitimacy Inclusivity Diversity

Scalability Speed of changeJustice Time

Glocal

Predevelopment selection zone Acceleration

Tools TM 2.0tipping point

ethics

transitionpotential

community engagement

communiciation& discourse

financing (e.g. joint purchase)

empowerment

coalition building

business cases

cost-benefit

system analysis

arena

agendaexperiments

evaluation

TM

power analysis

institutionalization

power strategy

social movement

What’s going on?

predevelopment

take-off

acceleration

stabilisation

Based on Rotmans et al, 2001

System breakdown

Lock-in

Some argue we are here

But perhaps we’re here…

Or here …?

Transition lock-in?• Transition field established, dominated by socio-

technical regime

• Different ‘schools’ hardly interact/exchange/cocreate

• We are stuck in optimising the established regime

• Lack of strategy to really impact science, policy and society together

Escaping the lock-in• Celebrate the diversity, make intellectual tensions

explicit and use them

• Kill our darlings: no more multiplying MLP, TIS, TM, SNM

• Strategize – Global database of transition experiments/social innovation– Face up to external (science/policy) regimes and destabilize– Create global transition network based on existing hubs– New themes: socio-economic domain, transition in science, policy

transition, …– Our mission: a world in transition?