Transit Oriented Growth in Chinese Cities
Transcript of Transit Oriented Growth in Chinese Cities
Transit oriented growth in
Chinese cities…opportunities and obstacles
or the ‘rationale’ for the 5th ring road
ShomikMehndiratta
Andrew Salzberg
World Bank
Transforming TransportationWashington DC. January 27, 2011
3
… densities are very high and cities are relatively compact
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
80
77
74
71
68
65
62
59
56
53
50
47
44
41
38
35
32
29
26
23
20
17
14
11 8 5 2 1 4 7
10
13
16
19
22
25
28
31
34
37
40
43
46
49
52
55
58
61
64
67
70
73
76
79
kilometers
resid
en
ts/k
m2
People's Square
Jiading
Chuangsha
Huinan
Taicang
Kunshan
Outer Ring RoadOuter Ring Road
KUNSHAN
CORRIDOR
TAICANG
CLUSTER
JIADING
CORRIDOR
CHUANSHA
CLUSTER
SOUTHEASTERN
CORRIDOR
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
80
77
74
71
68
65
62
59
56
53
50
47
44
41
38
35
32
29
26
23
20
17
14
11 8 5 2 1 4 7
10
13
16
19
22
25
28
31
34
37
40
43
46
49
52
55
58
61
64
67
70
73
76
79
kilometers
resid
en
ts/k
m2
NorwalkStamford
New
BrunswickElizabeth
Manhattan
Shanghai New York
Source: CHREOD, various
Context: High Densities
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
Beijing Shanghai Tianjin Guangzhou Latin America Europe US (and other developed countries)
1990
2000
4Source: draft Urban Fringe report, Bertaud (various), Angel (various)
These densities are decreasing, but
still high in a global context
Urban
density, persons/
km2
1984 1999
Source: Landsat ETM digital images
… 40 percent of ‘newly urbanized’ did not move, urban boundaries did
Spatial Growth is Rapid
Shanghai, 2009
Spatial Growth is fragmented at the urban periphery
Zhengzhou
Why? Land and Finance
• Municipal Finance
Limitations on accessing capital markets
Limited central government support
Base of stable recurrent taxes (property tax) missing
• Dual land tenure system
Market value 6-8 times (can be 75 times) compensation; limited transparency
Land transfer fees 20-30% of local government revenue
Finance about 60% of all urban infrastructure ~ 35b (2004)
• ‘Ring roads’: agents of land conversion
Strong incentive to over-requisition land
Induce growth fundamentally unfriendly to public transport
8
Incentive structures are working, just not for urban accessibility
9
Beijing ring road 3 of 5…
Inherently public transport and pedestrian un-friendly
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2,000,000
New York London Beijing
Urban Design and Public Transport
Stations
Jobs Accessed on Foot in
20 minutes from a major
CBD metro station
Urban design around stations can have a major effect on ridership…
Source: World Bank Analysis
19:00
JOBS工作
This Minute这分钟:
12,000Cumulative累计:
127,300
COMMERCIAL SPACE
商业空间 (平方米)(square meters)
This Minute这分钟:
29,600Cumulative累计:
409,000
N
Beijing –
GuoMao北京-
国贸
12:00Coventry Street
伦敦考文垂街
JOBS 工作
This Minute 这分钟 :
13,100
Cumulative 累计:
146,200
COMMERCIAL SPACE
商业空间 (平方米)(square meters)
This Minute 这分钟:
364,300
Cumulative 累计:
4,075,000
N
Bank Support
• Long term analytical support:
• Property rights at the urban periphery
• Sustainable Municipal Finance
• Project-focused land use analytical work and
advice
• Tianjin eco-city
• Wuhan mapping tools
• Design/Development for Kunming Urban Rail Project
Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-City
Tianjin Eco City New York City
Wuhan Urban Accessibility
!(
!(
!(
Accessibility To/From the city centers_Subway+Walk 2017(Without subway line no. 5)
±
0 5 102.5Kilometers
Legend
!( City_centers
Subwaylines_All_Origin_file
<all other values>
Route_ID
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Subway_Walknet2017
WaterBody
Polygons
15
30
45
60
90
!(
!(
!(
Accessibility To/From the city centers_Subway+Walk2020
±
0 5 102.5Kilometers
Legend
Subwaylines_Allyears
<all other values>
MetroID
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
M6
M7
M8
!( City_centers
Subway_Walknet2020
WaterBody
Traveltime
15
30
45
60
90
Land use change 2004-2020
STREET HIERARCHY IN EXISTING PLAN STREET HIERARCHY IN NEW PLAN
Courtesy: Energy Foundation
BLOCK SIZE IN EXISTING PLAN BLOCK SIZE IN NEW PLAN
Courtesy: Energy Foundation
Conclusions
• Continued dramatic urban growth
• Incentives can work against integration
with public transport – and support
development along ring roads
• Some initiatives, but long road ahead