Transit Infrastructure Needs for the Period2008 – 2012

C a n a d i a n U r b a n T r a n s i T a s s o C i aT i o n • s U i T e 1 4 0 1 , 5 5 Y o r k s T r e e T , T o r o n T o , o n M 5 J 1 r 7 • T e l : ( 4 1 6 ) 3 6 5 - 9 8 0 0 Fa x ( 4 1 6 ) 3 6 5 - 1 2 9 5 • w w w . C U T a a C T U . C a

Published February 2008

The fifth edition of the Canadian Urban Transit Association’s (CUTA) transit infrastructure needs survey has estimated the infrastructure requirements of transit systems across the country to be $40.1 billion for the period 2008–2012.

In late 2007, CUTA surveyed all of its transit system members, asking them to detail their capital infrastructure needs for the next five years. Submissions were received from 72 systems, representing 95% of total Canada-wide transit operations according to annual operating costs.

Transit systems were asked to divide their needs into four groups:

1. Currently planned rehabilitation or replacement (possible within existing funding programs)

2. Rehabilitation or replacement contingent on new external funding

3. Currently planned expansion for ridership growth (possible within existing funding programs)

4. Expansion for ridership growth contingent on new external funding

Of the $40.1 billion required, 29% is needed to rehabilitate or renew existing infrastructure, while 71% is identified to expand service capacity for ridership growth. These figures indicate that, while the need for renewal and rehabilitation of existing infrastructure continues to be an important aspect, transit systems across the country are more aggressively planning to expand service to meet the mobility needs of the growing Canadian urban population.

Also of importance is the fact that only half of the project value can be accomplished within current funding programs, whereas the other half is contingent on new external funding, suggesting a significant shortfall for the period 2008–2012.

Canadian transit systems estimate they will need more than $11.7 billion during the period just to maintain their equipment, rolling stock and support facilities in a state of good repair. While rehabilitation and replacement projects totaling $9.2 billion are currently planned, it is important to note that many of these investments have not yet been budgeted by the municipalities and local authorities in question, nor are they assured of receiving approval.

Transit systems estimate they will need to invest $28.3 billion on expansion between 2008 and 2012 to meet projected demand. The pressure on transit systems has increased in the past years as transit has been identified as a key solution to mobility, environmental and economic challenges in our urban areas. Of this total, only $10.9 billion is possible within existing funding programs, with the remainder dependent on new commitments.

These investments will help in the battle against increasing traffic congestion, air pollution and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

The total infrastructure needs of Canadian transit systems have grown as pressure increases to make significant ridership gains to impact transit modal share.

Over 73% of the total amount is in Canada’s three largest census metropolitan areas (CMA) more specifically, the Toronto Transit Commission (TTC), York Region Transit (YRT), Durham Region Transit, Mississauga Transit, Brampton Transit and GO Transit in the Greater Toronto Area; the Agence métropolitaine de transport (AMT), the Société de transport de Laval (STL) and the Société de transport de Montréal (STM) in the Metropolitan Region of Montréal; and TransLink in Vancouver.

Added pressure from the increasing population of these CMAs reflects one of the many challenges public transit systems are facing in these urban centres and their surrounding suburbs.

The results from this survey confirm an identical message from previous surveys: if Canada’s urban transit infrastructure investment needs are to be met, and if transit is expected to help increase mobility in urban areas, both federal and provincial levels of government must continue to invest aggressively in transit. A successful government infrastructure strategy must provide long-term sustainable funding. This would secure investments that transit systems require to meet mobility needs of Canadians well into the future.

exeCUTive sUMMarYTransit Infrastructure Needs for the Period

2008–2012

$17,448,445,234

$10,858,197,296

$9,226,146,686

$2,542,032,815

T r a n s i T i n F r a s T r U C T U r e n e e d s F o r T h e P e r i o d 2 0 0 8 – 2 0 1 2 P a g e 1

1. backgroundThe Canadian Urban Transit Association has conducted biannual transit infrastructure needs surveys since

1999. This, its fifth edition, presents the results of the latest analysis of needs. In the 1990s, transit systems

across the country came under unprecedented financial pressure as overall government investment dropped

sharply. As a result, infrastructure needs have risen steadily, while the age of existing infrastructure has also

risen. In recent years, overall investment levels rebounded, but so have the infrastructure needs of Canada’s

transit systems.

2. MethodologySurveys were sent to all CUTA member transit systems.

Transit systems were asked to list their budgeted capital infrastructure needs for the next five years

(2008–2012) by dollar value. It was categorized by:

• expenditures for replacement or rehabilitation versus expenditures for expansion

in response to population growth or promotion of new ridership;

• expenditures currently planned (under existing funding programs) in comparison to

additional needs that could only be met through new external investment; and

• relative priority levels.

Infrastructure needs were further categorized by type:

1. buses (purchases or refurbishment);

2. other rolling stock — including heavy

or light rail vehicles;

3. fixed guideways or rights-of-way (construction or enhancement);

4. maintenance facilities;

5. stations or terminals;

6. parking facilities — for commuters at stations, terminals or interchanges;

7. transit priority measures — infrastructure designed to give transit vehicles priority over other

traffic flow;

8. customer amenities — including bus stop enhancements, shelters, signage, etc;

9. advanced technology — such as automatic vehicle location, advanced fare collection and customer

information systems; and

10. other, which varied by responses.

Transit Infrastructure Needs for the Period2008–2012

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3. survey resultsResponses were received from 72 Canadian transit systems, representing 95% of total

Canada-wide transit operations according to annual operating costs. 1

The needs for transit capital and infra-structure were reported to total $40.1 billion as

indicated in Table 1. 2

Table 1 - Transit Infrastructure Needs 2008–2012

1 Total direct operating expenses were extrapolated by 5.1% to

reflect transit systems that did not respond.

2 Not all transit systems had planned their infrastruc-ture projects

up to 2012 by the survey deadline and did not list all the projects

that would be possible with new funding because of the uncertain

cost estimates.

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3.1 Rehabilitation or Replacement versus Expansion or Ridership Growth

3.1.1 Infrastructure Rehabilitation or Replacement

Of the $40.1 billion total identified for transit infrastructure, approximately $11.8 billion, or 29%,

is needed to replace or rehabilitate existing infrastructure, while approximately $28.3 billion is

for expansion, to respond to population growth or for ridership increases (see Figure 1).

In Figure 2, over $9.2 billion or 78% of the funds required to replace or rehabilitate existing

infrastructure was reported as part of current plans. Moreover, the balance, $2.5 billion or

22%, is contingent on new funding. Replacement and rehabilitation needs are the minimum

investments necessary simply to keep the country’s transit systems in a state of good repair.

Figure 3 outlines the categories within the rehabilitation or replacement needs. Approximately

$2.7 billion will be required to maintain bus fleets at their current levels. Close to $3.5 billion

is identified to maintain other rolling stock, such as subways, light rail and commuter rail

equipment, and $2.9 billion will be needed to replace or rehabilitate existing fixed guideways

or rights-of-way. Significant investments will also be needed to replace or refurbish

maintenance facilities and other items including fare collection equipment, terminals and

software to improve or implement intelligent transportation systems.

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3.1.2 Infrastructure for Expansion or Ridership Growth

While transit systems reported they need an estimated $28.3 billion for expansion projects,

close to two-thirds of this remains unfunded (see Figure 4). For transit systems to prepare for

population growth and fulfill their mandates to increase ridership, approximately $17.4 billion

of new investment will be necessary.

Transit systems have indicated (Figure 5) that their top three priorities to accommodate

expansion and future growth within the next five years are fixed guideway construction

or enhancement, maintenance facilities, other rolling stock such as subway cars, and bus

purchases.

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3.2 Current Plans versus Contingent on External Funding

Over $20.1 billion was reported as part of the transit systems’ current plans, and another $20.0 billion

was identified as possible only with new, external sources of funding (see Figure 6). It is important to

note in some instances, even “planned” expenditures may neither be budgeted nor approved.

3.2.1 Current Plans

As illustrated in Figure 7, over $9.2 billion of infrastructure investment currently planned is

intended simply to replace or rehabilitate existing equipment and facilities, whereas $10.9

billion in expansion is needed for transit systems to respond to population growth and/or to

increase transit’s share of urban travel.

A further breakdown of the numbers shows that other rolling stock, fixed guideway construction

or enhancement and bus purchases represent 71% of transit systems priorities (see Figure 8).

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3.2.2 Contingent Funding

More than 87 percent of the infrastructure investment that depends on new sources of

external funding is slated for expansion or ridership growth (see Figure 9), whereas only 13%

is for transit infrastructure rehabilitation and replacement.

Figure 10 indicates that 72% of the contingent funding is required to fund larger projects like

fixed guideways. It is also important to note that 22% of transit system needs are for other

projects such as maintenance facilities, bus purchases, other rolling stock and stations and

terminals that are contingent on external funding.

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3.3 Geographic Distribution of the Infrastructure Needs

Not surprisingly, infrastructure needs are greatest in the largest urban areas. Three quarters

of the surveyed infrastructure needs were reported by transit systems in the three largest

CMAs (see Figure 11), a trend that continues from previous surveys. The infrastructure needs

of all the transit systems located in the country’s 23 CMAs represent 98% of the national

total. Nonetheless, mobility needs of smaller communities must not be neglected. Their overall

costs may be proportionally small, but the benefits and impacts of the investments at the

local level are significant.

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4. TrendsIn the fifth edition of this report, discernable trends are visible within the data that is collected.

Figure 12, shown below, presents the total infrastructure needs from 1999 to 2012. The total

needs are over $40 billion for the 2008-2012 time frame, a level approximately four times

higher than the first recorded period.

The proportions of the total infrastructure needs that are current versus contingent are presented

in Figure 13. Specifically, this figure indicates what proportions of infra-structure needs are

possible under existing funding programs versus those dependent on new external investment.

The previous two surveys indicated that the share of investments contingent on new ex-ternal

funding continues to decrease. Cur-rent and contingent investments each repre-sented about

half of the total in 2002 and 2007. It is important to note that the abso-lute value of the

projects in current plans has increased in recent years. This may be the result of increasing

federal and provincial government commitment, including funds transferred from the federal

gas tax which can be used for transit investments. The projects contingent on new funding

reflect the need for increased capacity as cities continue to grow and transit is called upon to

increase ridership and its modal share.

It is important to remember that most transit infrastructure projects are long term and as

more funding arrangements become available, more transit systems will come to rely on them

to plan for future replacement or expansion needs.

The proportion of rehabilitation and expan-sion needs is presented in Figure 14. Ex-pansion

needs continue to outweigh reha-bilitation needs, but both categories remain important

in providing quality transit serv-ices to the public. To ensure continued tran-sit capacity

expansion and the state of good repair of existing capacity, funding must be sustainable.

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5. Conclusion: The Continued Push to Meet infrastructure needsThe results of this survey demonstrate the continued need for large-scale, sustained

investment in urban transit infrastructure, both for renewal and for expansion. Specifically,

the following needs were identified:

• Financially, investments for expansion and ridership growth

are greater than rehabilitation and replacement, but both

remain important.

• Fixed guideways represented the highest value component in

both cases.

• Buses, maintenance facilities and other rolling stock continue to

remain ubiquitously critical priorities.

Currently, many transit systems are operating at or beyond their design capacity, and

some systems are facing significant latent demand that cannot be satisfied without major

investment in service improvement and capacity expansion. Additional pressures are also

being put onto transit systems as they are expected to play an increasingly important role in

ensuring access and mobility for Canada’s urban communities today and into the future.

Canadians are demanding cities with a high quality of life, where people and goods move

freely, with affordable housing, clean air and reliable community services, including efficient

public transit. Optimizing the economic, environmental and social benefits of public transit will

require meeting the infrastructure needs outlined in this report. That, in turn, will require a

long-term, sustainable investment stream from all orders of government that permits transit

systems to plan effectively and systematically.