Transforming our lives, work, health, business - Massey University

FUTURENZTransforming our lives, work, health,business and technology in the 21st CenturyCommemorating 150 years oftheNewZealandHeraldand 50years ofMasseyUniversity

14November,2013

asb.co.nz

The closest a bank hasever come to buildinga time machine.A visit to the Innovation Lab at ASB North Wharf is a glimpse into what the bankof the future might look like.

Giant video screens are operated by motion sensors, letting you navigateyour way through real-time rates and information with a wave of your hand.Multimedia displays allow you to email yourself the information you findas you experiment with this cutting edge technology.

This non-traditional branch is more than a live trial of our newest ideas andinnovations. It’s an open invitation to our customers to help shape our future.

We hope to see you soon.

Succeed on.

ASB4037_NZH2_DPS_v3.indd 1

asb.co.nz

The closest a bank hasever come to buildinga time machine.A visit to the Innovation Lab at ASB North Wharf is a glimpse into what the bankof the future might look like.

Giant video screens are operated by motion sensors, letting you navigateyour way through real-time rates and information with a wave of your hand.Multimedia displays allow you to email yourself the information you findas you experiment with this cutting edge technology.

This non-traditional branch is more than a live trial of our newest ideas andinnovations. It’s an open invitation to our customers to help shape our future.

We hope to see you soon.

Succeed on.

ASB4037_NZH2_DPS_v3.indd 1

ASBBank Limited

ASB

4037

_NZH2

4/11/13 5:25 PM

ASBBank Limited

ASB

4037

_NZH2

4/11/13 5:25 PM

Putting a publication out about thefuture is an iffy business. Even asthe ink dries, things happen: a wallfalls; a bank fails; an earthquake

strikes. Time and chance, as the Bible hasit, happen to all of us, and the further intothe future you project, the less certainthings become.

The ideas that capture the imaginationare often the ones that are novel or nicelycounterintuitive. Saying that what liesahead will be a modified version of whatwent before makes for dull dinner tableconversation. Disruptive change is muchmore fun.

But drawing on the evidence ofpast performance can be a more usefulapproach — and I believe a programme ofintelligent investment is called for.

We are a small, isolated, well-educated,socially cohesive nation. We are blessedwith fertile soils, a temperate climate, andthe most innovative and forward-thinkingcommunity of farmers and horticulturalistsin the world. In the 1960s we were knownas Britain’s farm; now, increasingly, we areChina’s. We have universities that, despite

our tiny population base, are world class.Here is one of my investment tips.

Agrifood. There is money to be made.In 2010, Nestle, the world’s largest foodcompany, earned US$105bn ($127bn) ofwhich US$32bn was profit. Despite recentmissteps, we know we are good at agrifood;we cannot go far wrong. We just need to bemore strategic about we how do things.

Earlier this year Minister StevenJoyce launched the second stage ofFoodHQ, Food Innovation New Zealand,bringing together a partnership betweenAgResearch, Fonterra, Massey University,Plant & Food Research, the Riddet Instituteand the Bio Commerce Centre. This is theway things should be trending.

Here is another tip, this one addressinga weakness. Literacy. Recently Massey’sInstitute of Education conducted a studylooking at the success, or lack of, that NewZealand has had in addressing the largegap between our high-performing and low-performing students. Their verdict? Thepast decade’s approach has not made anysignificant difference. We urgently needto fix this, both because an educated and

flexible workforce is vital to our economicsuccess and because, if we do not, thesocial consequences will wreak havoc withthe society to which most us aspire.

So, allow the Massey University andNZ Herald authors of this publication somelatitude. Sometimes they will be right;sometimes not. And, more importantly,think about the sort of future you want.There are choices to be made.

Finally, I would like to say thank youto Massey’s partner in this publication, theNZ Herald, which is celebrating its 150thanniversary. This publication fits wellwith its history of informing and invitingpublic debate. And I would like to issuean invitation. Next year Massey Universitycelebrates its 87 years as a degree-grantingtertiary institution, 50 years as an inde-pendent university, and the 21st birthdayof its Albany campus, which has becomepart of the fabric of the North Shore andthe Auckland region. If you haven’t visitedthe Albany campus, make sure you doso, and if you are one of Massey’s alumnicommunity, make sure you come along toour Jubilee events.

Who doesn’t love to lookforward? I was recently ina second-hand bookshop,thumbing through the Book of

Predictions, published in 1981.‘‘By 2015’’, predicted the author, ‘‘the

first permanent colony on the moon willopen. Its primary function will be miningmaterial for satellites.’’ Granted, we stillhave a little over a year to go, but I thinkwe’ll miss this particular deadline. Sametoo, perhaps, for the Jetson-like cars I wasonce convinced we’d be flying by 2020.

With any birthday it’s customary toreflect on the past but as we celebrate theNZ Herald’s 150th anniversary, we’ve beendetermined to also look forward.

Today, in collaboration with MasseyUniversity, we consider and debate NewZealand’s future prospects — for families,our health, population, business, tradeand our cities. Some of the Herald’s best

journalists and commentators, along withMassey’s experts, offer insight into howwe’re travelling, into 2014 and beyond.

There’s a lot to be optimistic about,from our opportunities in agribusiness tothe wide range of industries that offer somuch growth potential. But we also facecrucial questions: how do we create jobs

that keep our kids in Godzone, the choiceswe face over energy technology and how tomake the most of our ageing population.

Massey political commentator ClaireRobinson tells us how she thinks the 2014election will play out, while her colleagueRichard Shaw outlines its key issues.

As the internet, social networking

and smartphones have revolutionised theway we communicate, so, too, will futuregadgets. Some seem a little scary, blurringthe line between objects and bodies, withembedded medical devices that relay infor-mation to doctors.

Here at the Herald, we know only toowell that change is constant. With a recorddaily print and online audience of morethan 800,000 people, we’re forging ourway in the digital age. As our audiencehabits change, we need to be a step aheadto meet their demands.

Just as we’ve led the debate over thepast 150 years, so, too, we want to sparkdiscussion around the future. There’s nobetter time to start than here.

Thank you to Massey for supportingand contributing to what we are planningto be an annual publication. And whoknows? By this time next year we may becloser to a moon colony.

Shayne Currie, NZ Herald editor

Steve Maharey, Vice-Chancellor of Massey University

DEBATEABOUTOURFUTURESTARTSHERE

INTELLIGENTINVESTMENTISTHEKEY

FUTURENEWZEALAND - NOVEMBER14,20134 FUTURENZ

ASWE CELEBRATE THE NZHERALD’S 150TH ANNIVERSARY,WE’VE BEEN DETERMINED TOALSO LOOK FORWARD.

FUTURENZFUTURENEWZEALAND - NOVEMBER14,2013 5

CONTENTS6 ELECTION 2014Whowill win next year’s general electionandwhy; the five hottest election issues

8, 10A TALE OF TWO FUTURESNew Zealand is at an energy crossroads -howwill our choices now affect the future

12 LIFE IN THEWORKPLACEThewaywework is going to change dramati-cally as technology and demographics evolve

15 SIT BACK, RELAX AND LOGONThe role of technology in our leisure time

16 CHANGINGFACEOFAUCKLANDHowwill our city look in 30 years’ time?

19 BUSINESS 2040LiamDann,Herald business editor, andFranceska Banga, NZ Venture Investment Fund

20 BOOSTING OUR EXPORTSWemust increase theworth of the goodswesend offshore to improve our prosperity

22GROWAGRIBUSINESSFran O’Sullivan,Herald business columnist

23GREENER PASTURESRapid population growthwill lead tochanges in thewaywe farm

24 FUTURE OF FOODThe issues facing food producers

25 THE SMART FOOD CAPITALNew Zealand is in a position to become aninternational hub for agricultural know-how

26 IN PURSUIT OF HEALTHINESSWho gets andwho pays for health care will bea pressing issue of the next few decades

27GETTING OLDER ANDWISERHow canwemaximise the opportunities ourageing populationwill provide?

28 THE RISK OF PANDEMICSIt’s becoming increasingly difficult to battle thebugs thatmake us sick

30OUR AGEING POPULATIONFinding the fountain of youth; wearable robotskeep elderlymoving

31 THE RIGHT DEVICETechnologywill blur the line between objectsand our bodies over the next decades

FUTURE NZEditors: Sarah StuartNZHerald,SidahRussellMassey UniversityArt Director: RobCoxSub-editor: Shandelle BattersbyAdvertising:Darrell DenneyPicture research: EllieMitchell

12

8

16

31

For more online-only contentincluding life in a virtual

marae go tohttp://tiny.cc/futurenz

All content also available athttp://futurenz.massey.ac.nz

Labour leaderDavid Cunliffe.

If recent history is anything to go by, the2014 general election result has alreadybeen decided. Since 1998, the partyleading the opinion polls in July of theyear preceding the election has gone on

to win the highest proportion of the partyvote, enabling them to form a government.

Despite the current centre-left Labour/Greens bloc looking competitive, historysays National should have the 2014 electionin the bag, again.

How is this possible when there is a lotof water to go under the bridge betweennow and the next election? Labour’snew leader has only just been decided,and so far not a single cent of money hasbeen spent on campaign material by anypolitical party. Surely voters will wait to seewhat tricks David Cunliffe can pull out ofLabour’s hat before coming to a decision?

Well, it’s counter-intuitive, but electioncampaigns in New Zealand don’t actuallymake much difference to the outcome ofelections for major parties (although theydo for minor parties). Data gathered fromthe New Zealand Election Study since 1999

shows that on average almost 54 per centof voters make their decision who to votefor before the election campaign. Whilepre-existing party loyalty is a significantfactor in the voting choice of these ‘‘earlydeciders’’, international research showsthat they also base their decision on perfor-mance measures they already know or

estimate well out from the campaign.Some 62.7 per cent of National voters

make their voting decisions before the elec-tion campaign; 40.4 per cent of them makethat decision before election year. It isthese voters Labour needs to reach.

Cunliffe will need to convince Nationalvoters that his recent rekindling of Labour’srelationship with the union movement is

also in their interests. It may have workedto shore up his leadership ambitions, butpersuading more conservative centre-rightvoters to swing to the left will not be aneasy ask.

Without being able to rely on thesevoters, Cunliffe will have to share the spot-light with the Greens’ Russel Norman andMetiria Turei in order to present a viablealternative to a National-led government.This isn’t necessarily an easy coalition. Thecloser they get to Labour, the Greens riskbecoming regarded as ‘‘Labour-lite’’. If theyare to grow their support base they need tokeep taking voters off Labour. Conversely,for Labour to grow they need to take votesoff the Greens, which means that they can’tbecome too chummy either. It won’t beeasy for either party to present itself as aunified offering when deep down they arecompeting for the same votes.

Although Cunliffe emerged fromthe Labour leadership ‘‘primary’’ withall guns blazing, recent political historyalso suggests he will find it hard to makea sustained impact within the next 12

If history repeats itself the National Party will be re-elected next year, and

there’s little Labour can probably do about it, writes Claire Robinson

FUTURENEWZEALAND - NOVEMBER14,20136 NEWZEALANDIN2014

ELECTION2014WHOWILLWINANDWHY?

HOTTESTELECTIONISSUES

1 LEADERSHIPLabour leader David Cunliffe will be goingup against amanwho has alreadywontwo elections. Labour’s campaign rhetoricwill emphasise Cunliffe’s mix ofministerialexperience and (relatively) youthful energy;the Government will take every opportunityto remind people of the value of John Key’ssix years in the top job. Recent polls indicateCunliffe is off to a good start. He has recon-nectedwith organised labour, taken theattack to the Government, and is re-estab-lishing Labour as the official Opposition. Heis also slowly shifting the terms of the debatebetween the twomajor parties, emphasisingpolicies that not only distinguish his Labourfrom earlier versions, but also clearly deline-ates its positions on fundamental issues fromthose of the government.

2 INEQUALITYAs a nationwe’re fond of telling ourselves NZis a great place for kids to grow up. But thematerial circumstances in whichmany Kiwislive reveal thesemyths for what they are.TheMinistry of Social Development’s 2013Household Incomes Report shows asmanyas 25 per cent of children live in poverty. Theincrease in income inequality in this countrybetween 1985 and the late 2000swas thelargest among all OECD countries exceptSweden. The increasingly unequal distribu-tion of incomewill be a battleground in the2014 campaign. National’s view that peopleare largely responsible for the circumstancesin which they find themselves will be pittedagainst Labour’s narrative — that we shouldbe doing a better job of caring for thoseamong uswho are suffering.

DESPITE THE CURRENTCENTRE-LEFT LABOUR/GREENSBLOC LOOKING COMPETITIVE,HISTORY SAYS NATIONALSHOULD HAVE THE 2014ELECTION IN THE BAG, AGAIN.

Richard ShawAssociate Professorof Massey University’sPolitics programme

ELECTION 2014

5

GOINGUP

Interest ratesInterest rates are on their way up as theeconomy strengthens and the rebuild ofChristchurch gets underway. The onlyquestion is when.Themost popular pick is theMarchMonetary Policy Statement. Interest ratesformaturities longer than the OfficialCash Rate show higher yields for stockwith longermaturities. Some of thisreflects compensation to investors fortying up their funds for longer terms, butthe important factor is interest rates onaverage are expected to be higher.This relationship is clear if you look at theswap rates that are the basis for banks’setting of fixed loan interest rates andthe 90-day bank bill rate over the sameperiod. The three-year swap rate was at3.90 per cent last month. Thismeans thatthe average 90-day bank bill rate over thesame three-year period should be similar— but this can only occur if we are goingto have bank bill rates significantly higherthan the present 2.65 to 2.70 per cent.In October 2012, the three-year swaprate was at around 2.75 per cent. Thesubstantial increase since is a reflectionof amarket view that increases in interestrates are nowmuch closer.Is it a certainty? No. If global economicconditions worsen and the Reserve Bankholds the OCR at current levels, thatmeans dour economies elsewhere. Ouronly comfortmight be that conditionsare less grave here than elsewhere.Associate Professor David Tripe

NEWZEALANDIN2014FUTURENEWZEALAND - NOVEMBER14,2013 7

3 THE COST OF HOUSINGThe effects of the Reserve Bank’s decision torestrict banks’ lending to prospective housebuyers are starting to be felt. This is also anissuewhere the ideological lines are clearlydrawn. In order to build 100,000 afford-able homes for first-home buyers, Labourhas promised “the largest public buildingprogramme in over 50 years”. National hassought to ease theway for private sectorhousing construction, offering first-homebuyers the chance to buy an ex-state houseoutside themain centres. There are twoissues in play here. One concerns the funda-mentally different roles for the state reflectedin each party’s approach; the other has to dowith people’s abilities to distinguish the deci-sions of an independent central bank fromthe preferences of the government.

4 PRICE OF ELECTRICITYThe differences between the parties onhousing policy are, if anything, more starklydrawnwith electricity. Again, there are reallytwo things bundled up here. One concernsthe disposal of state assets; the other,increases in the price of electricity. Themajorparties’ preferences on the first, and viewsabout how best to tackle the second, aregrounded in opposing ideological positions.National, which hasmade partial asset salesa central element of its second term policyagenda, has turned to themarket to resolvematters with partial privatisation. Labour haspromised to establish a new state agencywhichwould act as a single buyer of whole-sale electricity, and also have the authority toset power prices. The first strategy reducesthe reach of the state; the second expands it.

5MAORI AND THE STATERace relations almost always features inelection campaigns and can have a powerfulbearing on the tone and tenor of politicaldebate. Next year is different, however, inthat it signals the end of the historical Treatysettlements process. How themainstreampolitical parties position themselves for thenew post-settlement environment will havea big effect on how they renegotiate theirrelationships with theMaori political commu-nity. Look for a change in rhetoric away fromthe language of settling grievances to adiscourse of boostingMaori economic andsocial development. The conversationwillfocus not on divisions (real or perceived) buton how the ‘‘Maori economy’’ andMaori aspi-rations for development can be harnessedfor the collective good.

months. The MMP era is littered withmajor party leaders who have rolled theirpredecessors with the hope of doing betterwithin two to three years of the next elec-tion, only to fall by the way. John Key isthe exception as leader of the Oppositionfor just under two years before he becameprime minister. No one has yet gone onto lead a government within 12 months ofassuming party leadership.

Of course, none of this means thatforming the next government will be easyfor National. Its current support parties— ACT, United Future and the MaoriParty — have all recently suffered seriousreputational damage and declining popu-larity. The wildcard is, of course, NZ First.Assuming that the party gets over the 5 percent threshold, its options are to go intocoalition with National, go into coalitionwith Labour and the Greens, or remain onthe cross benches and vote issue by issue.

With a party membership that haspreviously indicated a preference not tobe in formal coalition with National, andfaced with the alternative prospect of being

the third (and least important) party in aLabour/Greens coalition, the most likelyscenario is that NZ First will choose tostay on the cross benches, supporting aminority National government on confi-dence and supply, much as it did for the2005-2008 Labour-led government.

But there is an even wilder cardthat may yet disrupt this scenario: theConservative Party. In the 2011 election itgot 2.65 per cent of the party vote, which ismore than any of National’s coalition part-ners. Off the back of population increasesit is possible a new electorate may beformed north of Auckland, currently aNational-leaning geopolitical zone. It wouldnot be without precedent for Nationalto ‘‘gift’ the winning of that electorate toparty leader Colin Craig to ensure thatthe Conservatives’ party vote may becounted in a new centre-right coalitionbloc. National might then be able to governwithout the support of NZ First.Professor Claire Robinson is a politicalcommentator and Pro Vice-Chancellor ofMassey University’s College of Creative Arts.

JohnKey (centre)withGreenParty co-leaders

RusselNormanandMetiria Turei.

NZ’s campaign to geton the UN Security

Council.http://tiny.cc/futurenz

What follows is a peekinto two possible NewZealands, each at theextreme end of whatour future may look like.

New Zealand in 40 years time might endup being somewhere between these twoscenarios leaving the question: what sortof world do we want future generations toinherit?

If we are to successfully transition to asustainable clean energy future, then signif-icant investment in appropriate researchand development needs to be made today.In 40 years time will we wonder whydrastic steps to combat climate changeweren’t taken earlier?

BLEAK HOUSEIt is 2050 and we live in a world whererecord-high temperatures are a commonoccurrence and power costs are expensiveas fossil fuels become depleted or harderto extract. There is increased competitionfor water because the upstream water frommost rivers is diverted to increase irrigationfor farming during much drier summers.

The hot, dry conditions affect foodproduction as well as the

power output

from gas and coal-fired power stations sincethe water used for cooling the plants is nowseveral degrees warmer. As a result of basicthermodynamics, thermal power plantsnow run at considerably lower efficienciesand have to be shut down during periodsof high temperatures. Increased energydemands for air-conditioning cooling inbuildings have led to higher demands,power price spikes and further environ-mental damage.

Traffic congestion in urban centresnow approaches gridlock at peak times andflooding has become increasingly commonas rivers routinely break their levees.Ratepayers face hefty rate increases as ever-higher stop-banks are needed.

Because of New Zealand’s failure toinvest more than 0.2 per cent of GDP inresearch and development in the past,other countries — especially China andIndia — now control the operation ofcarbon dioxide capture and storagesystems and the manufacture of solarpanels, wind turbines, electric vehiclesand fuel cells.

As carbon prices continueto soar and uranium, oil andliquefied natural gas becomeincreasingly scarce, thecountry’s economy is crip-

pled by the investment now needed toswitch to 100 per cent renewable energysources that were talked about earlier thiscentury but never fully developed. Thisis further hampered because governmentfunds need to be diverted to pay for criticalclimate adaption measures. These includerenewing building foundations collapsingdue to the underlying clay sub-soil dryingout during summer and further heightincreases and strengthening needed forcoastal levees as sea levels continue to rise.

New Zealanders no longer enjoy aneasy-going culture as extreme weatherevents impact our lives and livelihoods.

GREAT EXPECTATIONSCouncil District Plans across New Zealandhave required that all new buildings haveenergy saving and clean energy technolo-gies installed, as well as encouraging simpleconversions of existing buildings.

There have been major investments inpublic transport infrastructure, includingan electric bus and rail system in all citiesand an automatic super-conductor ‘‘high-railway network’’ that combines driverless,electric, road and rail vehicles. Commuterroad vehicles have ‘‘artificial photosyn-thesis’’ coatings integrated into theirpaintwork, and when they reach the super-conductor high-railways, the system takesfull control of the vehicle.

Traditional hydropower plants still exist— but only to provide base load stability,resulting in a fully decarbonised, reliableand cost-effective electricity supply system.

Perceived problems constraining thetarget of 100 per cent renewable electricitycaused by the variability of wind and solar

power have been overcome by accurateweather forecasting, the integration of

demand-side management controls,

New Zealand, like the rest of the world, is currently at an energy crossroads. We have two

possible futures which will be determined by the social and political choices we make today.

As a nation we can go down the business-as-usual, fossil fuel route, or we can work towards a

future based on clean energy and technologies. Professor Ralph Sims explores what our daily

lives may look like under two very different scenarios

FUTURENEWZEALAND - NOVEMBER14,20138 FUTURE LIFESTYLES

A TALEOF TWO FUTURES

CONTINUED P10


and the construction of back-up bioenergycombined heat and power plants.

These plants also produce theco-product ‘‘biochar’’, which generatesrevenue through valuable carbon creditsbut also improves soil quality. As a result,crop and pasture yields are higher, irri-gation demands are less, and carbon isremoved from the atmosphere.

These biomass conversion technolo-gies, combined with carbon capture andstorage developments, mean that negativeglobal carbon emissions can actually beachieved within the next decade. This goalis essential if the planet is to keep belowthe maximum 2°C warming as agreed by allcountries in 2009.

Many urban areas have become‘‘biophilic’’ with plants and wildlife closelyintegrated with the buildings and transportinfrastructure. Most buildings have solarpower coupled with energy storage systemsintegrated with efficient electric-powered,commuter transport ‘‘pods’’.

All unused organic material is collectedfor use in bio-refinery plants that produce

a range of bio-products, including liquidbiofuels and the 2000 or more chemicalsthat used to be produced from crude oil.So local employment opportunities close toresidential areas are commonplace.

All buildings have ‘‘smart meters’’installed that enable the occupiers to savemoney by avoiding peak power charges andto earn revenue by selling excess powergenerated by efficient solar panels, micro-turbines and wind turbines back to thegrid. Electric vehicles have become part ofthe domestic energy system and used asenergy storage devices when needed.

With all these smart appliances running,each house becomes its own micro-gener-ator. Neighbourhoods effectively have theirown virtual power station because a centralinternet-based system controls the varyingsupply/load balance from all the buildings.

Communities also own fleets of vehiclesavailable for residents to hire on occasionswhen high-speed rail services or their usualcommuter vehicles are unsuitable.Ralph Sims is Professor of SustainableEnergy with Massey University’s School ofEngineering and Advanced Technology.

WITH ALL THESE SMARTAPPLIANCES RUNNING EACHHOUSE BECOMES ITS OWNMICRO-GENERATOR. W

e’re all used to automaticsecurity lights and washingmachines that choose thebest programme for their

loads. But in the coming decades ourhomes will become really smart. They willhave ambient intelligence — the ability tounderstand what we intend to do.

Ambient intelligence describespervasive computer systems that runprogrammes inspired by artificial intel-ligence. Researchers are developingsystems that observe the inhabitants ofsmart homes in unobtrusive ways throughsensors that then interpret the dataproduced to recognise behaviours.

Simple sensors such as motionsensors, power sensors registering theuse of appliances, or contact switches oncupboard doors are the preferred options.These sensors produce a continuousstream of data that can be fed into acomputer programme that uses methodsfrom artificial intelligence and machinelearning to find out what is happening inthe house. Once the smart home knowswhat’s going on, it can take appropriateactions to provide support, reassurance,assistance, or comfort to the inhabitant.

But how do we communicate withour smart home? Our lives have alreadybecome highly connected through a

variety of devices. Receiving a messageon a smartphone and then posting it onFacebook so that others can downloadit onto their PC is not something thatraises eyebrows anymore. Taking this tothe next level means incorporating non-human entities into our communicationnetworks.

In the future our houses will be ableto adjust to our needs. For example, ifyou sat down in the lounge in the after-noon with the TV switched on, it wouldknow you were watching the latestepisode of your favourite show, and sincethis would take an hour, it would increasethe temperature in the room to suit. Ifyou wanted to make a shopping list at thesame time, it would check the fridge anddisplay what needed replacing next to theprogramme on your TV.

The push needed to make this happenis being driven by demographics. Mostdeveloped countries have ageing popula-tions and smart homes will give olderpeople the ability to live independently intheir own homes for longer.

Today if you came home and yourhouse was cold and dark, you mightwonder what was wrong with your heatpump, or whether a light bulb had blown.In the future you might ask what yourhome was thinking.

WHATWAS YOURHOME THINKING?Hans Guesgen is a Professor of Computer Science in MasseyUniversity’s School of Engineering and Advanced Technology

FROM P8

Even today ‘‘work’’ is no longera place you go; it’s what you doand how you do it. The changingnature of work has enormousimplications for how we struc-

ture organisations and manage people.“It’s not just our day-to-day working

conditions and habits that are changing,but also our working consciousness”, saysAssociate Professor Ian Laird from MasseyUniversity’s School of Public Health. “Theneeds of a low-carbon economy, rapidadvances in technology, increasing globali-sation, and profound changes in longevity,demography and social norms are allshaping the way we work and the places wedo that work.”

One thing that’s clear is the workplaceof the future will not be the same foreveryone. Those in the retail and serviceindustries will still be constrained to someextent to the shopfront, predicts ProfessorJarrod Haar from Massey’s School ofManagement. “It’s hard to imagine a futurewhere people won’t want the social experi-ence of dining out, for example, so we’ll

still need chefs and waiting staff on site.”It’s the professional employee who

is likely to spend most of their time in avirtual workspace. People will work outsidethe traditional office in places they chooseor need to be to do their work.

Some organisations have alreadystarted their transformation into highlymobile workplaces, while others arestruggling to understand what the future

means. According to Dr Laird, maintainingcreativity while achieving mobility in acost-effective manner is the most significantleadership challenge facing senior execu-tives today.

Balancing the needs of individual work— a space in which to concentrate and getwork done — and the need for interactionmeans that most workplaces will want staffto have some face-to-face time.

The way we work is going to change dramatically in the future as companies struggle

to maintain creativity while achieving mobility, in a cost-effective way


LIFE IN THEWORKPLACE

The once prestigious EncyclopaediaBritannica published its final print editionlast year. In just 15 years Google andWikipedia have taken over its role as asource of academic knowledge.

The rapid growth ofWikipedia is a useful meta-phor for how the futureoften lives in the past.It illustrates how, in thedigital age, academic knowl-edge is no longer restricted toformal educational settings. Butthe idea that a comprehensiveencyclopaedia provides a valuable sourceof academic knowledge remains — albeitnow in a more accessible digital format.

Is new digital technology really makingour children smarter? Should we restrict

access to technology in the classroom soreal thinking can take place? Moral panicsabout such issues will continue becausenew technology does not easily mesh with

traditional classrooms and manyparents expect their children to be

well prepared in ‘‘the basics’’.If technology is to trans-

form our education system,then it must be made acces-

sible to all. Without a deliberatedecision to promote digital inclu-

sion there will be a growing gapbetween the haves and the have-nots.

But there is no doubt that the newdigital world has the potential to flip theclassroom around to a more socially inter-active and engaging process where studentstake charge of their own learning.

Traditional models of education arealready being challenged — who could havepredicted the growth of Massive OpenOnline Courses (MOOCs) from some of theworld’s elite universities even 10 years ago?MOOCs may end up being the educationsystem’s iTunes, leading to a transforma-tion in the way education is delivered.

Technology creates the ability to bemore flexible in the classroom. In thefuture we may decide to group studentsquite differently with a more diverserange of age, skill and knowledge levels.Classrooms may become innovation hubswhere small groups of students worktogether on real-world problems and sharesolutions with a global audience.

We have the opportunity to givestudents more control over their learning,

SCHOOLS BEYONDTHEDIGITALHORIZON Professor Mark Brown

FAMILIESTraditional concepts of family arechanging. “Marriedwith children” was longthe paradigm: but the past decades haveseen this erode, to be replaced bymorefluid and inclusive concepts of family.

In the last 30 years New Zealandhas grown from 3.2million (1983) to 4.2million in 2013, and as our numbers haveincreased, so has our familial diversity.

Statistics NZ has undertaken projec-tions on family life between now and 2030.One prediction is that couples withoutchildrenwill overtake couples with twochildren as themost common householdgroup. The number of people living alone isalso set to increase; 602,000 by the 2030s.Many of thosewill be older people withgrown families, who have lost a partner.But both single and partnered older peoplewill bemore engagedwith the care of thefamily over the next 30 years.

An OECD study entitled “The Futureof Families to 2030” says current babyboomers are the new “young old” whowill continue to be active and take care ofyounger familymembers, while theirchildrenwork.

The same study states that increasedemployer demands for flexible/casualworkers will see the development of 24/7childcare centres.

The recentMarriage Equality Act, andproposed changes to adoption laws,will alsochange the face of the family.Married same-sex couples are now legally able to adopt,and this is likely to lead to an increasingnumber of children being raised by samesex parents. Proposed changes to adoptionlawswill allowpeople to be considered foradoption regardless of their sexuality, age,relationship status or gender. Thiswillmeanthat single, older andunmarried parents ofall sexual identities could createfamilieswith adopted children.*All NZ figures from Statistics NZ.

FUTURE LIFESTYLESFUTURENEWZEALAND - NOVEMBER14,2013 13

proceeding at their own pace, but alsolearning more through sharing andteaching each other. A classroom might bea virtual place where you go to connectonline with classmates throughout thecountry or the world.

Trends such as unschooling and homeschooling may become more mainstream asit becomes easier to connect away from atraditional classroom, with teachers takingon the role of a knowledgeable facilitator toenhance shared learning experiences.

Classrooms will be more seamlesslyconnected to home and other spaces toencourage authentic problem-solving andcollaboration. The division between formaland informal learning will be less defined.

We may see the national curriculumadopt a more global dimension allowing

students to move into tertiary study at aglobal institution of their choice. However,face-to-face time in physical classrooms islikely to still play an important role in main-taining our unique culture and heritage.

These changes will not be universallywelcomed and they are not inevitable.Whether schooling should focus on knowl-edge or skills is already debated and, so far,our education system has remained resil-ient to technological changes.

Rather than accepting educationalchange as glacial, our future depends ondeciding what type of education systemand technology we require to serve theneeds of New Zealand’s future citizens.Professor Mark Brown is the director of theNational Centre for Teaching and Learning atMassey University.

Flexible offices, with different kinds ofunassigned workspaces offering both quietspaces and areas suitable for group work,are already a growing trend.

“In the future most workplaces willhave fewer dedicated desks and are fore-cast to be almost a fifth smaller than today’soffices,” Dr Laird says. “Instead, spaceswill be redesigned to provide inspiration,encourage collaboration and promotehealth and wellbeing.”

Professor Haar predicts that mostprofessionals will have one day per weekwhen they will meet with their team andmanager in person. On other days meetings“will take place in a virtual office whereyou’re assigned tasks by your manager withyour virtual team members around you”.

“Work-from-home options typicallystall around issues of trust between themanager and the employee, but in thefuture workplaces will be so highly wiredthat monitoring employees will be easy, nomatter where they are,” he says.

“Technology also puts pressureon workers to work longer hours — we

already see this happening with smart-phones. I only see this trend continuing.”

The ability to adapt to changing tech-nology will become one of the most soughtafter attributes of any employee, ProfessorHaar says. Some jobs will be conducteddifferently because of new technology;others will be completely new.

“In 30 years time, as many as 50 percent of the jobs will be ones that no onehas ever heard of today. Workers will needan even broader array of skills to enablethem to be flexible and adapt to changingemployment needs. The future employeewill be ever training and updating tomaximise their performance and employ-ment opportunities.”

IN THE FUTURE MOSTWORKPLACES WILL HAVE

FEWER DEDICATED DESKSAND ARE FORECAST TO

BE ALMOST A FIFTHSMALLER THAN

TODAY’S OFFICES.IAN LAIRD

FUTURE LIFESTYLESFUTURENEWZEALAND - NOVEMBER14,2013 15

Connection — it’s one of thehallmarks of our digital age. Beit by computer, smart phoneor tablet, much of our leisuretime is spent engaging with

others digitally. Platforms such as Twitter,and Facebook enable us to disseminate ourthoughts, feelings and images to a poten-tially global audience; new connections canbe made with the click of a mouse or thetouch of a screen.

But paradoxically, this growth inopportunities for connection may lead toincreased isolation. Dr Martin Paviour-Smithfrom Massey University says that manypsychologists and sociologists around theworld are expressing anxiety over the isola-tion of our digital age.

He points to the work of Sherry Turkle,a Massachusetts Institute of Technologysociologist and psychologist. “[She] suggestsconnectivity makes us lonely, and tech-nology is providing us with a false dreamof forever being in touch, of always beingheard.”

Technology, it seems, can be a double-edged sword. But there’s no denying itwill play an important role in forthcomingdecades. Our use of technology for leisurewill continue to grow and develop. But howwill this affect our relationship with the“real” world? What will our future leisuretime look like?

According to Paviour-Smith, technologywill enable us to experience “a seamlessmerging of digital and physical lives” inboth work and leisure activities. But he saysthis doesn’t have to be to the detriment offace-to face time.

Just as our future social life will beshaped by technology, so will our creativepursuits. Artists are already transcending the“real” to create exciting new visual worlds.But will technology mean the end of tradi-tional art forms?

Curator and head of Whiti o RehuaSchool of Art at Massey University HeatherGalbraith doesn’t think so. She says that asculture becomes more “screen-based”, inter-action with physical art works will becomemore popular. “Galleries and museums willsurely evolve to accommodate the changing

realities of people’s lives, [but] they willcontinue to be social spaces, where encoun-ters with art are catalysts for conversations,hanging out and meeting up,” she explains.

While the digital is likely to play anincreasing role in the creation of art,Galbraith still sees traditional materials asbeing important. “While David Hockneyis making iPad drawings, paint on canvas,panel or paper [will remain relevant].”

Our engagement with books is also setto change. As e-books and online publishingdevelop, new technologies will arise thatmake reading digitally more appealing. Butaccording to Sam Elworthy, president of thePublishers Association of NZ, paper bookswill still have a role to play.

“Paper books fulfil many func-tions that Kindle and other e-booksdon’t — they can be given as gifts,there is a perception that theyare more robust, they lookgood on shelves. I think thecheap, hardy paperback willcontinue to be popular.”

Interaction andexperience are also keycomponents of sport. Butsport may be an experi-ence that fewer of us are able

to afford in the future. Stephen Stannard,head of the school of sport and exerciseat Massey University, says sport will beincreasingly hard for lower socio-economicgroups to access. “Only those with moneyhave the leisure time to engage in sport.Sports clubs that don’t have much moneyare really suffering, as people who werepreviously happy to volunteer their time tocoach now often want to be paid for theirservices. This will increase in the future.”

While religion may not traditionally beseen as a leisure activity, Peter Lineham,professor of history at Massey University,says that it can now be seen in that light. He

says that churches will play a multidimen-sional role in our future lives.

“Successful modern religious organi-sations utilise extremely slick marketingtechniques and really understand themarket,” he says. “A good example of this isParachute Music Festival; it’s now the mostsuccessful music event in New Zealand.”

Lineham also points to the “emergingchurch” movement as an example of thefuture of religion. “Groups in this movementare eclectic — they may focus on candlelightservices meditation, they may be Christianor non-Christian — and are often transient.”These grassroots churches are often notaffiliated with any denomination; people

often meet in houses and engage in inter-faith dialogue.

Whatever the future of our leisuretime, Paviour-Smith believes that we willcontinue to actively engage outside of thedigital sphere. “Most people will want theirdigital lives to reflect elements of their reallife — the desire to share the physical worldwith those who are not present will continueto drive people’s continued participation insocial media.

“Yes, people use the internet to formrelationships of all kinds — romance, gamingand other interests but they will pursuemost of those in the real world too.”

Technology is playing an increasingly dominant role as our connector, entertainer, babysitter

and teacher. Joanna Mathers explores how Kiwis will play in the coming decades

SIT BACK,RELAX AND LOGON

PARADOXICALLY,THIS GROWTH INOPPORTUNITIES FORCONNECTION MAY LEADTO INCREASED ISOLATION.

FUTURENEWZEALAND - NOVEMBER14,201316 AUCKLAND

The Auckland City of the future is noBlade Runner fantasy, says AucklandCouncil’s urban design guru LudoCampbell-Reid. It’s not all gleaming

glass towers and sky-high elevators; tech-nology and vertical living.

“That’s an unimaginable city, it’s anhorrific city where people are part of themachinery,” he says. “I like a bit of chaos.Chaos is more exciting. People like intimatespaces. People like to walk. People want tosee the church at the end of the road theyare walking along. They want to see the cityaround them. They want the city to be aboutthem. That Blade Runner type of moderncity scares me.”

What is planned for Auckland over thenext two to three decades is more Back tothe Future than Brave New World, he says.A place where pedestrians and publictransport rule. Where alleys and openspaces take precedence over cars. An inter-linking set of walkways lined with shops andrestaurants, joining old and new city parks,creating people spaces above our motorwayjunctions and evolving a Kiwi urban lifestylewhere residents can see the beautiful build-ings and distinctive surroundings that giveAuckland its character.

Difficult to imagine? The beginnings ofthis Auckland City of the future is around usnow. Take the shared pedestrian/car spacesof Fort Lane and Elliott St. The family-centred parks and promenades of WynyardQuarter, the rebuilt Auckland Art Gallery,Britomart and Te Wero bridge with its stepsenticing children to dangle their toes intothe Waitemata Harbour. Auckland City hasbeen undergoing a transformation over thepast seven years. Expect to see more of the

same over the coming decades.Professor Paul Spoonley of Massey

University says for another million peopleto be added to the city in the next 30 years,growth would equal that of 2001-2006,when the population gained more than30,000 new residents each year. That doesnot seem out of the question, but there areaspects to that growth that will increasinglymark Auckland out as very different to therest of the country.

“More New Zealanders will beAucklanders,” says Spoonley. “Even modestgrowth will see Aucklanders grow to about38 per cent of the country’s population inlittle over a decade, which will be unusuallyhigh in the OECD.”

Meanwhile, many other New Zealandregions may decline in numbers as theirpopulation ages. Says Spoonley: “Auckland

will grow while most regions will not. Thesize of Auckland, plus the fact it has growingpopulation numbers, makes it attractivefor those firms that require a steady laboursupply and skills. So regions will struggleto keep jobseekers, firms and families incompetition with Auckland.”

The second factor is diversity. In 2010,Auckland was one of the most immigrant-

The revitalisationofQueenStwill continue,with light rail and the long-discussedoptionofmakingparts of it apedestrianmall still a possibility.

Victoria St LinearPark, above,will beAucklandCIty’s urbangreen link, allowingVictoria and

Albert Parks tomerge

THECHANGINGFACEOFAUCKLANDHow will our biggest city look in 30 years’ time?

AUCKLANDFUTURENEWZEALAND - NOVEMBER14,2013 17

dependent cities in the OECD with about 40per cent of its residents born overseas. “Theresult has been a two-nations effect,” saysSpoonley. “Auckland versus the rest.”

It is the Asian communities whichare changing the city. From single digitnumbers in the 1990s, by 2021 they areexpected to comprise up to 28 per cent ofthe region’s people. “The high numbers ofimmigrants in certain suburbs or in partic-ular business areas has transformed partsof the city giving it a newfound cosmopoli-tanism,” says Spoonley. “Auckland reallyhas become a reflection of its location, anAsia-Pacific city.”

That ethnic diversity is not withoutits challenges, however. Immigrants findit difficult to get jobs appropriate to theireducation and experience and Spoonleyquestions whether New Zealand is makingthe most of their trade links to their home-lands. “When will Asians be representedin local government in proportion to theirpopulation?” he asks.

Immigrant communities are often moreenthusiastic about inner-city urban living butCampbell-Reid says the new style of inten-sive housing planned for Auckland shouldconvert many more of us to its charms.

There are plans to transform the inner-cityroads already housing whole communitiesinto narrower traffic lanes with green spacesfor children, such as Hobson St which isalready home to 10,000 people. He wouldlike to see a new downtown school, QuaySt to become a tree-lined boulevard on thewaterfront, with room for some cars andlight rail heading up Queen St. He pointsto the Vinegar Lane project, currentlyunderway in Ponsonby, as a game-changerfor urban living. Built with a supermarketbelow, surrounded by individually-designedterraced homes and apartments with rooftopgardens, courtyards and offices, it is avillage of its own all in the same block. “Inmany cities now the space above the ‘bigbox’ stores and supermarkets are filled withapartments. Those big retail stores needpeople in them, and we need space.”

The money for the redevelopment ofthe inner city is coming, he estimates, on a4:1 private, public funding mix. AucklandCouncil has $750 million to $1 billionearmarked for improving the city centreover the next decade.

There will be big changes too, he says,in suburban Auckland as the new higherdensity rules allow for more townhouses

and apartments in the currently strugglingtown centres.

“The people who will be primarilybuilding Auckland in the next 15-20 yearswill be the mums and dads,” says Campbell-Reid. “There are a very few big companiesbuilding hundreds of homes but thereare thousands of individuals building themajority of Auckland. It’s the back of thegarden being subdivided, two units addedon. Eighty per cent of Auckland is built bynon architects.” Resource consent can playa part in how that design is managed, hesays, but a desire for, and acceptance of,better design standards is also needed.

“Scene 1, 2, and 3 would never happenon my watch,” he says of the towering tinyapartments which block much of the cityfrom the waterfront.

His big prediction for the next 30 years?Once the City Rail Link is up and running,a high-speed train linking Wellington toBritomart in a 2.5 hour trip, with Hamiltonand Tauranga just an hour away also.

“That’s when a city has two to threemillion people potential,” he says. “We livein such a beautiful place, so many peoplewant to come here, we’re going to have tointensify to accommodate them all.”

QuayStwill change froma car-dominated road toan importantmeetingandgreetingplaceandaworld-classwaterfrontboulevard.

Thedevelopmentof themajorarterial routesofHobson (above)andNelsonStsneeds tohave the lookand feelofdignifiedurbanstreets thatencouragepedestrians.

For the past 50 years, since being afforded universitystatus,Massey has been New Zealand’s defining andonly truly national university for young New Zealanders;educating, shaping and inspiring minds.

Massey was founded by two iconic and pioneeringacademics. Sir Geoffrey Peren, who created thePerendale sheep breed, and ProfessorWilliam Riddet,who pioneered food technology and food science.Both professors were bold and innovative industryleaders. Today their legacy continues withMassey’s award-winning lecturers, world-renownedresearchers and graduates making a differencein New Zealand, and the world.

Massey University’s three state-of-the-artcampuses, in Albany, Manawatu and Wellington(plus a leading distance learning programme),

provide a world-class education, offering the largestnumber of degree programmes available at anyuniversity in New Zealand.

We continue to exude, foster and fuel positivechange, propelling the best of our nation’s creatives,intellectuals and innovators into industry-leadingroles. At Massey University you don’t just get adegree – you come out with the practical skills tocreate a better future for New Zealand, and the world.

Our students, staff and alumni are the “engine”that is driving change, all over the world.Join us in the new New Zealand.

ENROL NOW FOR 2014MASSEY.AC.NZ

WE’VEALWAYSBEENTHEENGINEOF THE NEW NEW ZEALAND

TRAC

TA50

859-NZH

Celebrating50 years asNew Zealand’sdefininguniversity.

In the mid-1970s, few would have foreseenthat 25 years later a low-profile Finnishcompany called Nokia would be the world’slargest seller of mobile phones.

A quarter of a century on, it could beNew Zealand innovation leading the world.

It’s not too farfetched. In 25 years, elec-trical cords could be a past relic as the worlduses PowerbyProxi’s wireless power trans-mission technology. Or a small industrialmembrane system invented by Hydroxsysmay have cleaned up global agriculture andmining operations.

While we are seeing some impressiveactivity in the technology sphere, where willmajor growth and innovation come from?

The game-changers will come aboutthrough innovating across different sectors,making the most of our population’s diver-sity, and forging high quality internationaltrade and investment relationships.

We led the world with our China freetrade agreement, and now with Taiwan.Over the next 25 years, we must continueto forge these relationships, not just in thetrade context, but also the investment part-nerships we form.

We need to be more flexible withoffshore ownership — better owning 10 percent of something huge, than 100 per centof nothing. Partnering with internationalinvestors retains an ownership stake here,helps create jobs, and enables us to benefitfrom the wealth created (even more so if oursuperannuation and KiwiSaver funds areinvolved).

Innovating across sectors is where thebiggest gains can be achieved. Icebreakerdoes this very well, combining a primarysector resource — merino — with textile andbrand innovation. Christchurch company K9combines primary products with value-add

processes to create a high quality natural petnutrition brand. It is about brand creation,and developing highly differentiated high-end products.

Cultural stereotyping is still a barrier tomany Asian migrants who could becomemajor contributors to the success of ourbusinesses operating in the Asian market.

New Zealand is in danger of becominga retirement village for the wealthy, unlesswe change our wealthy migrant policies.If the rules required that 10 per cent ofwealthy migrants’ investments have to beinto growth companies via venture capitaland private equity funds, this would bring$25-$30 million a year into the sort ofgrowth companies which could make a realdifference. Let’s focus on attracting wealthyand entrepreneurial migrants who arewilling to invest in and grow world-leadingbusinesses from New Zealand.

BUSINESSANDAGRICULTUREFUTURENEWZEALAND - NOVEMBER14,2013 19

How will we create the jobs our chil-dren will want to do in the future?That’s a question that should becentral to all the economic choices

we make today.Short-term economic thinking

puts New Zealand at serious risk of“Pied Piper” syndrome — our bestand brightest youngsters will head forthe hills, or more likely Australia.

But projecting 20 or 30years ahead forces us to thinkabout the next generationand it puts a human focuson questions about howwe want our economyto look, what sort ofinfrastructure we wantto build and the kindof lives we want to beliving.

This country is headinginto another cyclical boom

— we’re not going broke — but we havestructural issues that none of the majorpolitical parties have been brave enoughto address. We are pricing our children outof the housing market in our biggest cities

and wages aren’t keeping up. Even asthe economy bounces back we see bigcorporations downsizing and shiftingoperations offshore.

If we’re going to keep the next gener-ation here we need vibrant cities with

opportunities for careers in IT, design,finance and marketing. We need compa-nies with head offices here.

That might not mean protecting alljobs at all costs. We have lost plenty oflow-skilled manufacturing jobs in thepast three decades. We may lose evenmore if our dollar stays high.

The solution is to create morethan we lose and to educate ourpopulation with the skills we need.

Even though they will continue

to underpin our export earnings, it won’t beenough to rely on agriculture and tourism ifwe want to really develop our economy.

The trouble is we just aren’t that goodat thinking long-term. Our politicians tendto think in three-year terms — six if they’refeeling optimistic. Many of our biggestcompanies are struggling to look beyond thenext annual result.

It is easy to lay the blame at the feet ofcompany bosses or politicians but it is inves-tors and voters that drive this culture. Inother words: us.

Our Asian competitors seldom doanything without a long-term strategy. Ithelps to have a single party central govern-ment of course.

But we are a very small nation and alittle bit of bipartisan consensus would go along way.

With clear thinking and big vision weneed to find a few big goals to agree upon —then we need to get on with it.

Liam Dann, NZ Herald business editor

Franceska Banga, Chief Executive of the NZ Venture Investment Fund

FUTUREGENERATIONSNEEDMORE INCENTIVESTOSTAY

POTENTIALTOEXCELONTHEWORLDSTAGE

On Twitter: @liamdann

Icebreaker

Few Kiwi commentators couldmore eloquently describe theimportance of transformingNew Zealand’s economy — andboosting the value of its exports

— than the late Sir Paul Callaghan.In his 2009 book, Wool to Weta, the

physicist highlighted one of the more heart-rending effects of this country’s relativelylow level of per capita gross domesticproduct (GDP), which has fallen wellbehind Australia’s over the past 40 years.

“Our children go to London or Sydneyor New York, and they like the lifestyle,they like the high salaries and they haveplenty of Kiwi mates on hand,” wroteCallaghan, who died last year from cancer.“There are plenty of countries on theplanet less prosperous than our own.But when our grandchildren aregrowing up on the other side of theworld, when we have to Skype to read abedtime story, we feel a pang of grief.”

Increasing the value of the goods wesend offshore is a critical componentof boosting the nation’s prosperityand the Government has set a goal oflifting exports to 40 per cent of GDP by2025.

It’s a bullish target and victory is farfrom within our sights.

In the 12 months to March 2013, NewZealand’s total exports — at $46.2 billion —accounted for 31.4 per cent of the country’s$147 billion real (inflation adjusted) GDP,according to Statistics NZ.

In the same period of 2008/2009, whenthe National Party came to power, theproportion of exports was almost exactlythe same.

Massey University professor ofinnovation and economics, ChristophSchumacher, says the 40 per cent goal isambitious, particularly given the short time-frame that’s been set.

“But it’s feasible if the right changes are

made,” he adds. “I don’t think we can justgo on with business as usual and hope wewill get there.”

He says New Zealand won’t hit thetarget through only increasing its primaryexports — commodities such as milkpowder and logs — or simply growing thetourism sector.

“If we want to increase our exportrevenue we need to provide more innova-tive products,” Schumacher says. “At themoment New Zealand focuses very heavily

on the agricultural sector, but we are toooften providing the raw product and ship-ping it offshore, where other companiesmake things out of it. I think there’s a bigopportunity to be involved in more stagesof the value chain.”

A government-commissioned reportby market research firm Coriolis says high-value, processed food accounted for only14 per cent of New Zealand’s total food and

beverage export value in 2009. By compar-ison, processed food made up about 30 percent of Denmark’s and almost 40 per centof Ireland’s in the same year.

According to the research, NewZealand’s “export mix” to Australia is moreheavily weighted towards processed foods.

“Conceptually, if we could get ourglobal food export mix to resemble ourAustralian food export mix, our foodindustry would be more value-added andprofitable,” the report says.

Achieving the shift towards higher valueexports — which has been a topic of count-less conferences, government reports andnewspaper columns over the past couple ofdecades — remains a distant goal.

New Zealand exported $45.5 billionof goods in the 12 months to the end ofAugust this year, 44 per cent of which

were dairy commodities (mostly milkpowder), logs and meat.

Andy Hamilton, chief executive ofAuckland business incubator The Icehouse,

says reaching the 40 per cent of GDPtarget will require boosting primaryexports in tandem with other, higher-

value products such as technology.“I don’t support ‘let’s forget agricul-

ture’, because the whole economy is basedon it,” he says.

But while Kiwi technology stars likeaccounting software provider Xero areforging new paths for New Zealand’s exportgrowth, Hamilton says many opportunitiesremain in the food and beverage sector.

“If we just get a whole lot more of ourfood and beverage companies growing intoAustralia and succeeding, that would have amassive impact,” he says.

Pat English, executive director of theNew Zealand China Council, says theChinese market will play a huge role in thiscountry’s export growth.

“Of the $10 billion increase in exportswe’ve had in the last five or six years, $6.1

Increasing the worth of the goods we send offshore is a crucial way of

improving New Zealand’s prosperity. Christopher Adams reports

FUTURENEWZEALAND - NOVEMBER14,201320 BUSINESSANDAGRICULTURE

BOOSTING VALUEOFEXPORTS KEY TOGROWTH

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1 Professor David Deakins 2 Theo Spierings3 Christoph Schumacher 4 Mike Daniell5 Andy Hamilton 6 John Penno 7 Sir Paul Callaghan

TOP FIVE

Industries for growth

1Dairy:Huge scope for growth in Asia,particularly China. Two-thirds of theglobal middle class expected to belocated in Asia Pacific by 2030, while

the Chinesemiddle class is predicted toreach one billion by the same year.

2Marine/boatbuilding:Aiming to double technologyand equipment exports to $1.3billion by 2020.

3Software/cloud computing:Companies suchasaccountingsoftwareproviderXeroandmedicalrecords firmOrionHealthwell on

theirway tobecomingglobal players.

4Clean technology/biotechnology:Companies likebiofuels developer LanzaTechand cancer diagnosis provider

Pacific Edge showing positive signs thatthey could become the country’s firstbiotech “bigwins”.

5Food andBeverage:Opportunities exist for addingvalue to primary dairy ingredi-ents with products such as infant

formula and adult nutritional goods.


billion of that has been to China,” he says.Indeed, New Zealand’s exports to the

Asian mega economy have tripled to $7.9billion since the two countries signed a freetrade agreement in October 2008.

Marco Marinkovich, founder ofAuckland’s KiwiMilk Nutrition, says thebooming Chinese infant formula market— estimated to be worth US$12.4 billionand expected to double by 2017 — offersthis country a lucrative opportunity to addvalue to its primary dairy products.

There’s also talk of China, population1.35 billion, relaxing its one-child policy,which could unleash a baby boom of almostunimaginable proportions.

“But the thing is, we’re not going toget there if we continue to screw it up,”Marinkovich says, referring to the recent

debacles in this country’s trade relation-ship with China, including January’sdicyandiamide (DCD) scare and Fonterra’sspectacular botulism false alarm.

Small-scale New Zealand infantformula firms, whose exports had soaredin recent years, have been losing up to $2million of weekly sales in China as a resultof the ongoing impact of the botulismscare, according to the NZ Infant FormulaExporters Association.

While China promises to be a majorcomponent of our future export success,Schumacher says we shouldn’t lose focuson other emerging markets — such as LatinAmerica and smaller Asian economies.

John Penno, chief executive ofCanterbury dairy processor Synlait, whichis 39 per cent owned by Chinese dairy giantBright Dairy, says his firm is being careful

not to become too “China-centric”.“At this point in history it would be easy

for us to do that,” Penno said in his presen-tation at October’s China Business Summitin Auckland. “Our primary marketingstrategy is a third [of exports] to China, athird to the rest of Asia and a third to therest of the world.”

German-born Schumacher says NewZealand could learn a thing or two fromhis homeland. Germany spends a lot moreon research and development than NewZealand and the links between Germanuniversities and industry are much strongerthan those in this country.

New Zealand’s R&D spending, particu-larly from the private sector, lags behindother small, advanced economies.

Businesses in this country spent $1.2billion on R&D in 2012, or roughly 0.8 percent of GDP, according to Statistics NZ.

Finland and Denmark’s private sectorsspend more than 2 per cent while Israel’scompanies spend over 3 per cent.

Schumacher says firms such asWarkworth’s Core Builders Composites,which built Oracle’s America’s Cup-winningcatamaran, are examples of the opportuni-ties that exist for this country in high-techboatbuilding.

Globally successful Fisher & PaykelHealthcare — which spent $45.7 million,or 8.2 per cent of its operating revenue,on R&D in its last financial year — has alsoshown that New Zealand can lead the wayin certain areas of medical technology, headds.

However, less than 20 per cent of localcompanies are currently earning revenuein overseas markets, according to a reportby Massey University’s Centre for Small andMedium Enterprise Research.

The centre recently completed a studyof how and why New Zealand companies“internationalise”.

David Deakins, the centre’s director,

IFWEWANTTO INCREASEOUREXPORTREVENUEWENEEDTOPROVIDEMORE INNOVATIVEPRODUCTS. CHRISTOPHSCHUMACHER

says the research found some commonfactors among the firms that had experi-enced export success.

“There really is a major commitmentneeded, so to sustain export activity youhave to take a long-term view and commitenough time and resources into the over-seas market,” he says.

And the New Zealand dollar, which wastrading at more than US82c last month,remains an ongoing impediment to theexport sector.

ExportNZ executive director CatherineBeard says some companies are learning todeal with the strong currency.

“The companies that are getting goodgrowth are the ones that appreciate thatthey’ve got to be globally competitive anddeveloping products with an X-factor wherethey’re not competing so much on price.”

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare.

Francis Henry Dillon Bell PARTNER

1851-1936

Kiwi agribusiness leader Sir Graeme

Harrison first coined the arresting

phrase — “Agriculture: New

Zealand’s Silicon Valley”. It’s a

visionary statement signalling the very real

wealth that will accrue to New Zealand if we

develop a more sophisticated agriculture

sector to create high-end food products for

the world’s growing middle-classes.

The Government has set a goal to

double primary exports by 2025 to spur

economic growth and, despite the growth

in other sectors, agribusiness will hold sway

for some years yet.

Right now China is NZ’s biggest agricul-

tural export market, where dairy exports

have trebled since the 2008 free trade deal.

Fonterra is now investing $1 billion in a

series of farm hubs in China and stepping

up the rollout of its own branded products

including premium priced infant formula.

The beef trade growth has been explosive

and sheep exports have doubled.

It’s not all been plain sailing

as contamination scares,

invoicing scandals and other

issues have affected our major

exporters. This is a pointer to

the increasing professionalism

our primary exporters must adopt as

they expand beyond China into other fast-

growing markets in Asia and Latin America.

Market diversification is also essen-

tial. China’s consolidation of its own dairy

industry to create some new national cham-

pions is already creating new competitive

pressures on Fonterra.

Other potentially valuable Asian

markets are tying increased access to their

growing consumer bases to the stipulation

that foreign companies should simultane-

ously invest in their domestic industries to

upskill their people.

Work is already underway on three

growth kickers:

i s[^ god^mpq^pk [bl rbep`[^_ k[^

Primary Growth Partnership

scheme to lift the value-add

component of NZ agribusiness.

i tbomZ cZrr lnem \mock[ bl k[^a

increasingly leverage their own

$37 billion asset base.

i fpd^lkq^pk Zp cbk^m dZb b mbp\^ o]

irrigation projects essential to lift farm

productivity was boosted by an allocation in

this year’s budget.

But there are also pressures. The inten-

sification of the dairy industry has brought

a wide range of environmental problems to

the fore and there are also constraints on

capital and supply chain issues.

Our farmers are ageing and there needs

to be a great deal of work done to open the

way to farm ownership to younger people.

This is where foreign ownership of farmland

comes in.

It’s a balancing act. But exploiting NZ’s

agricultural DNA to the full holds a lot of

promise for this small country.


Fran O’Sullivan, NZ Herald business columnist

GROWAGRIBUSINESS, GROWNEWZEALAND

nzherald.co.nz

Read Fran O’Sullivan’sfull article athttp://tiny.cc/

futurenz

BUSINESSANDAGRICULTUREFUTURENEWZEALAND -NOVEMBER14,2013 23

If the world’s population is set to reach8 billion by 2030, feeding everyonewill require new approaches and agri-cultural systems. Achieving this in asustainable way is the key issue facing

farmers.More intensive agricultural practices

always have an impact, whether it’s addi-tional nutrient run-off or added pressureon water resources. How best to balanceenvironmental concerns with the increasedagricultural production needed to driveNew Zealand’s economy will be a source ofdebate for generations to come.

There are a number of trends currentlypushing farmers to change their landmanagement practices.

At the forefront is climate change.Last summer’s drought really highlightedthe extent to which we rely on its naturalresources for economic prosperity.

Extreme weather events are no longeronce-in-a-lifetime experiences; they are thenew normal, and we need to build agricul-tural systems to reflect that. Surviving, letalone prospering, in this volatile environ-ment will take systems that have harnessedtechnology, science and know-how.

The other key factor is public opinion.Kiwis love the outdoors, and quite rightlydemand clean waterways and unpollutedcountryside. As do our tourists.

‘‘Green’’ consumers are also becomingmore demanding and, at the same time,national and local governments are regu-lating to ensure the success of agriculturedoes not come at the expense of the envi-ronment.

Farmers occasionally grumble about

new regulations and additional costs,but they acknowledge the importance ofadopting sustainable systems for their ownlong-term viability. What’s needed is achange in mind-set: we don’t need to inten-sively farm every square metre of land. Asproductivity gains are achieved throughon-farm innovation and research, the lessproductive or sensitive areas of a farm orcatchment can be retired from production.

Rather than trying to convert all landto the most profitable farming system of

the day, industry leaders need to use tech-nology such as geographic informationsystems, overlaid with data on water qualityand soil type to position farms for thefuture. In this way farmers will get more outof their productive land, while other areascan be returned to native species.

This approach will need the supportof government, regulators and industry.It requires incentives for farmers andan understanding from consumers thatthey are paying for a premium product

WHAT’S NEEDED IS ACHANGEINMINDSET:WEDON’TNEEDTO INTENSIVELY FARMEVERYSQUAREMETREOF LAND.

produced under best practice conditions.This will require more of a collaborativepartnership model between consumers andfarmers than currently exists.

The dual demand for more food andhigher quality food could lead to a diver-gence in farm systems. There is no doubtthat many farms will increase in size —but with greater efficiency and a smallerfootprint — to meet the demand for bulkproducts.

But there is also a move to smaller,niche farm systems with a focus on quality,unique, artisan products. Agriculturalindustries are working with universities andother research providers to develop func-tional foods that help maintain health andprevent disease.

In 2030 New Zealand, the area dedi-cated to agricultural production may not bemuch larger than it is today. Good manage-ment and technological developmentsshould mean greater production yieldsfrom land put to appropriate use. Someareas will see a change in agricultural use —for example between pastoral industries, orfrom pastoral to horticulture; others will beretired from farming and returned to nativebush under covenant agreements.

Meanwhile, agriculture is unlikely toencroach on the wilderness areas that drawtourists from around the world, simplybecause that land isn’t viable for farming.In fact, New Zealand has little unused landsuitable for additional agricultural activity.The biggest changes in land usage in thefuture will actually be caused by somethingelse — increasing urbanisation due to ourgrowing population.Danny Donaghy is the Dairy NZ Professorof Dairy Production Systems with MasseyUniversity’s Institute of Veterinary, Animaland Biomedical Sciences.

The way we farm must change to cater for predicted

rapid population growth, says Professor Danny Donaghy

PASTURESINSEARCHOFGREENER

nzherald.co.nz

Read more onbiosecurity/foot andmouth disease athttp://tiny.cc/

futurenz


FUNCTIONAL FOODSTo ensure health, people need to eatthe necessarymicronutrients andminerals required for a balanceddiet. But the diets ofmany peopledo not include the range and qualityof food tomeet these needs. Toovercome this issue, food scientistsare creating functional foods, wherestaple foods have healthful thingsadded to them. These foods can providehealth benefits to those looking toprevent the onset of lifestyle diseases suchas diabetes, coronary heart disease, hyperten-sion, osteoporosis and bowel cancer.This is not a simple process as a food’s taste,texture andmouth feel changewith theadditives. But Fonterra has had phenomenalsuccess with its Anlene brand of fortifiedmilk,which contains calcium, vitamin D, zinc andmagnesium to support bone health. Similarly,beneficial compounds such as omega-3 fattyacids have beenmicroencapsulated to allowthem to be added to foodwithout the fishytaste. Functional foods will increase in preva-lence as the population ages and people seekto improve their health through their diet.

BIOFORTIFICATIONAdding healthy ingredients to foods is onething, but choosing strains of plants that have

higherlevels of nutrients andminerals is an alterna-tive way to enrich food. Inthe past, crops such as cornandwheat have been chosen fortheir superior yield, but increasingly they arenow being bred to have enhanced nutrientcontents. In the future wewill increasingly belooking to varieties of commercial speciesthat are alreadymore nutritionally rich. Thesemay have been eliminated fromproductionover time because the yield was insufficient.Other types of plants such as quinoa andmillet are also being looked at as alternativesto what we commonly consume.

AGEINGAs people get older they start to losemusclemass and their taste buds, but keyto long-term health is finding proteinsthat are easily digested and absorbed.Recently, the Riddet Institute has studiedenzymatic breakdown of wastemeatproducts to produce highly digestibleliquid hydrolysates that have very highrates of protein utilisation. These can beconsumed as high quality gourmet soups.

NOVEL PROTEIN SOURCESAswell increasing the efficiency ofanimal protein production on ourfarms, new sources of animal proteinare being investigated — from rabbits,insects and from aquaculture. Protein

sourced from the biofuel and vegetableoil industries, algae and other plants are

either already in production or being studiedfor efficacy and ease of production. Productssuch as Quorn, a vegetarianmeat substitutemade from a fungus that is already on themarket, will becomemore common.Distinguished Professor Paul Moughan andProfessor Harjinder Singh are co-directorsof the Riddet Institute, a national Centre ofResearch Excellence focusing on food struc-tures and digestive physiology hosted byMassey University.

Fast food is not new— the ruins of Pompeiicontain about 120 fast food takeaway restau-rants. Is 3D printing technology creating thefast food of the future?

Nearly a dozen groups around theworldare now printing foods. Most are doing it thesimple way, depositing a ready-mixed foodmaterial on a plate layer by layer to build upa shape. These printers are not currently“printing food”, but rather “printingwithfood”. If you use chocolate paste it setsinto a chocolate shape of your design. Ifyou use three colours and flavours you

can create a frozen dessertof any shape you like withthe flavours and colourswoven through at will.Some groups havemadefood pastes from insectparts.

At this stage, the secret isnot to emulate an existing food— youwill always be second best.A printed food has no name yet. But one dayit will andwewill all know it by that.

One day youwill be able to buy a printer

for the kitchen alongwith cassettes of colour,flavour and nutrientsfrom the supermarket.But the ultimate goal isto reconstitute food frombasematerials and, whilethis is still several stepsaway from being a reality,

the daymay comewhen a 3D printerin your kitchen can create anymeal you havea recipe for layer by layer, removing the needto ship food around the globe.

3D PRINTING

THE FUTUREOF FOOD

Food producers face a number of major issues in thecoming decades that will require current productionsystems to be challenged and new sources of nutrition tobe discovered. The planet is in an era of rapid populationgrowth, with estimates that the global population

will reach nine billion by 2040. This is two billionmore, or more than 28 per cent, than now.Much of this growth is in Asia, where there

is also a growing middle-class, hungry for high quality protein. Theconsumption of animal protein per capita in Asia increased 225 percent between 1961 and 2007. People in the developed world areliving longer due to improved medical care, and this means newfood products will be needed that can deliver protein and micronu-

trients that are easily digested, bioavailable and that tastegood. A mix of old and new foods and technologies

will be needed to sate this hunger.

Professor Paul Moughan and ProfessorHarjinder Singh of the Riddet Institute


THEWORLD’SSMARTFOODCAPITAL

In 2050 the milk crisis of 2013 may wellbe remembered as a turning pointin New Zealand’s approach to agri-business. With the benefit of almost40 years’ hindsight the event could

become as important a milestone as thefirst shipment of frozen meat from NewZealand to Britain in 1882.

We will hopefully see it as a coming-of-age year when we realised that NewZealand’s core advantage in agribusinesswas intellectual property, a year when wecollectively decided to pursue the goal ofmaking New Zealand the smart food capitalof the world.

So, how will we get there? As thesaying goes, “never waste a good crisis”.Now the story of Fonterra’s botulism scareis fading from the daily news bulletins, thereal work must begin. Industry leaders,government and the country’s scienceproviders need to develop a blueprint forthe future.

This process should engage the wholecountry in an open dialogue. This year’scrisis spilled over into many other sectors— tourism being the prime example — andit highlighted the fact that every one of theapproximately half a million New Zealandenterprises has a role to play in buildingthe country’s reputation.

The next step is to focus on the wholevalue chain. We have traditionally focusedon industries (dairy, meat, wool) or sectors(pipfruit, seafood) but, to gain most value,we need to build strength in all compo-nents of the chain — traceability, resourcemanagement, processing, packaging,distribution, retailing, marketing, branding,exporting, policy, finance, technology,computing, management, research anddevelopment.

We must also look for smart businessmodels. One of our core national valuesis independence, but the demands of thefuture will require us to partner with thosewho have skills or resources we lack in aprocess of open innovation.

The problems facing the world today(food supply, poverty, disease, climatechange) are complex. They require inte-grated responses, and we need to harnessall the resources (including tikanga Maori)available to us.

New Zealand also needs to build aseamless science system. We already haveexcellent science and education systemswhere individuals and groups are closelyconnected, but we can do better. Our goalmust be to provide easy access for firms,with scientists working across institutionalboundaries (in New Zealand and around

the world) and alongside industry asstandard practice.

We have clear capability in producingfood, we have a business infrastructure thatis consistently rated as amongst the best inthe world, and a highly educated farmingcommunity that has the capacity to inte-grate the newest technology into its farmingoperations.

This puts New Zealand in a strongposition to export education, training andtechnology in agricultural production.Thereis no reason we should not become a leaderin knowledge distribution, an internationalhub for agricultural know-how.

The reality is that this blueprint doesnot yet exist in any formal sense — butthat doesn’t mean it shouldn’t be written.Wherever conversations about NewZealand’s future occur, these same ideasare kicked around: How do we work bettertogether? How do we ensure that our firmshave access to the best science and the bestinfrastructure?

It is only by ensuring our firms do whatthey do best — be enterprising and take thebest of New Zealand to the world — thatwe can secure our economic future as theworld’s smart food capital.Professor Claire Massey is Massey University’sDirector of Agrifood Business.

New Zealand is in a strong position to become an international hub for

agricultural education, training and technology. Claire Massey reports

Today, one in eight Kiwis is overthe age of 65. By 2030, thatnumber will grow to one in four.Add to that Kiwis migratingfrom the country to the city at

the rate of one per cent per year andit all adds up to profound effects onour future health needs.

As our population ages,we’ll see more chronic condi-tions such as cancer, asthmaand chronic obstructive pulmo-nary disease, diabetes, heartdisease, depression, and dementia.Population growth, the destructionof natural bush and wetlands, andclimate change will mean greater contactwith animals. That increases the threat ofzoonotic diseases like bird flu (conditionsthat pass from animal to humans).

At the same time, humans will continueto develop conditions more resistant totreatment by antibiotics. As we’ve seenrecently with Sars and H1N1, there willbe no sanctuary as infectious threats arerapidly transported around the world andacross national borders.

Let’s talk money, too. The deadlycombination of rapid rises in chronic,

zoonotic, and antibiotic resistant diseaseswill cause health care costs to continuetheir upward spiral. History suggests thatincreased reliance on technology, medica-tions, individualised clinical treatment, andnarrow definitions of evidence-based healthcare will not be enough to stem the tide.

These are the very factors drivinghealth care costs in the United States,

Canada, Germany and the UK to unprec-edented levels. As these countries’ recentexperiences have shown, the net effectis that health care gobbles up the money

and resources needed elsewhere to keepyour population educated and housed,

the environment protected and theeconomy booming.

New Zealand’s future healthneeds mean less care and morecosts to individuals, at the very

time many of us will be developingchronically disabling conditions,

particularly among those already poor,unemployed, socially marginalised or

unable to access education.How can we ensure our future is one

where more people live happy, healthy andprosperous lives; where environments arevalued, and resources and opportunitiesare more equitably shared? It will requireconsiderable creativity, political determi-nation, and public support to move awayfrom unsustainable and expensive medi-cally-driven paradigms.

Recent research suggests that biologyand genetics do not have as much influenceover health as once thought. Rather, oursocial, built, and natural environments, ourpolitical and economic choices, and invest-ments (or disinvestments) in education,

early life experiences, and our socialsupport systems constantly interact

in complex ways to profoundlyimpact our likelihood of beinghealthy, and our ability to access

and benefit from restorative care.Health doesn’t have to be

defined as a set of medical conditions thatoccasionally have social consequences.Rather, it should be framed as a set ofsocial, economic, political, cultural andenvironmental choices that have profoundconsequences for our health and healthcare.Professor Paul McDonald is the Pro Vice-Chancellor of Massey University’s College ofHealth.

Health care — who gets it and who pays for it — will be one of the most

pressing issues of the next few decades. Professor Paul McDonaldsays our environment — natural and built — will play a part

FUTURENEWZEALAND - NOVEMBER14,201326 HEALTH

IN PURSUITOFHEALTHINESS

NEW ZEALAND’SFUTURE HEALTH

NEEDSMEANLESS CARE ANDMORE COSTS TO

INDIVIDUALS.

Rather than worrying about the effects of our ageing population on society, we should

be looking at the opportunities it could provide for individuals and the economy.

Professor Christine Stephens and Associate Professor Fiona Alpass report

HEALTHFUTURENEWZEALAND - NOVEMBER14,2013 27

GETTINGOLDERANDWISER

New Zealand’s ageing popula-tion reflects the combinedimpact of lower fertility,increasing longevity, andbaby-boomers and early Gen

Xs moving into older age groups. Babyboomers begin turning 85 in 2031, doublingthe number of that age in 2008 andpredicted to double again by 2061.

Population ageing is often viewedthrough a negative lens but this increasedlife expectancy is one of the greatestachievements of the past century andprovides considerable opportunities forindividuals and society.

OLDERWORKERSNew Zealand has one of the fastest growinglabour force participation rates forolder workers in the world. By 2030 thepercentage of those aged 65-plus remainingin the work force will increase to 26 percent, up from 16 per cent in 2010. Despitethe concern over the costs of social secu-rity due an ageing population, many willcontinue to contribute to the economy. Thisis occurring as our manufacturing economybased on manual jobs moves to a serviceeconomy, with fewer physical demands onthe worker.

Already, older workers are over-repre-sented in the service sector.

But as baby boomers retire, thelabour supply will decline and soefforts to retain older workers tooffset the potential loss of criticalorganisational knowledge andexperience will intensify.Incentives will encouragelonger workforce participa-tion through maximising workand retirement flexibility, andproviding conditions that supportlifelong learning, irrespective of age.

The “silver economy” will be adriver of future economic growth as busi-ness taps into the growing baby boomermarket, a healthier and wealthier group

with new consumer preferences andpatterns of consumption.

AGEISMAs New Zealand’s demographic makeupchanges, so will our attitudes and preju-dices towards the elderly. As baby boomershead into their 60s and 70s and olderpeople remain working in positions ofpower, are visibly successful, and have astronger voice in society, attitudes will shift.

Sexuality is one way in which under-standings of older people’s lives arechanging. The sexual activity of olderpeople will continue to grow in visibility,and different sexual orientations willbecome apparent as growing numbers ofolder people are able to declare their pref-erences.

Politicians are already keenly awareof the growing older vote, hence theGovernment’s reluctance to raise the retire-ment age.

HOUSINGThere will be shifts in the ways that we live.Changes occurring in Europe and the USsuggest a wider variety of options for older

people’s housing than just gated retirementhomes and seaside houses. One of thesedevelopments is shared spaces — systems ofattractive communal housing.

There are different models or arrange-ments in which individuals have privateapartments with shared communal facilitiesand systems of shared meals or attachedrestaurants and bars. An important featureof these housing arrangements is that theyare part of the wider community, ratherthan being separated and gated.

There will also be increasing emphasison care at home, supported by the state.

HEALTH SERVICESWith a growing focus on prevention ofdisease and community care for those withdisabilities, health care costs will diminish.Technology will also bring many benefitsincluding sophisticated mobility aidswhich will allow independence for thosewhose eyesight, hearing and movementare compromised; robots for cleaning anddispensing care; and instant communica-tions when help is needed.

Telehealth, or the delivery of health-related services and information via thephone or internet is already in wide use inAustralia and being trialled in New Zealand.

It is predicted to become a majorway in which health care is delivered asit improves clinical responses and healthoutcomes and reduces isolation.

INEQUALITIESUnequal living standards is one

important difference betweengroups of older people that willbecome more apparent as the

population ages. The nationalsuperannuation presently supports

reasonable standards of living for mostpeople. In the future this level of basic

support will be strained, those who payrent and have no savings will be seriouslydisadvantaged, and we are likely to see newgroups of older people in hardship.

There is an arms race occurring —one that is largely hidden, but onethat is vital for us to win. It is thebattle between humans and the

bugs that make us sick.In recent years we have seen the

emergence of a growing numberof zoonoses — infectious diseasesthat can move between animalsand humans — and otherhighly contagious patho-gens. These pathogens areevolving more quickly thanever — in fact we are forcingthem to develop.

Anti-bacterial and anti-viraldrugs are driving the evolution ofnew, resistant strains. Urbanisation,global trade and travel, climate changeand farming practices mean pathogensspread more easily and have a greatergeographical range.

Historically, we have been able to keeppace with these developments. We aresmart enough to develop new technologies:we have discovered new antibiotics, devel-oped vaccines, found new surveillancetools that enable us to get ahead of theepidemic curve and put measures in placeto prevent widespread infection occurring.But it is becoming increasingly difficult.

How concerned should we be about aserious pandemic? During the 20th centurythere were two major pandemics:the Spanish Flu of 1918 and HIV/AIDS in the 1980s. The worldcould experience similaroutbreaks in the 21st century.

How well we respondwill depend on a numberof factors. If a new virulentstrain of influenza was to developduring the Southern Hemispherewinter, New Zealand could be one of thefirst countries exposed.

The Southern Hemisphere InfluenzaVaccine Effectiveness Research and

Surveillance project, a five-year Kiwistudy funded by the US Center for DiseaseControl and Prevention, has just completedits second winter of surveillance and willbe instrumental in improving the methodsused for managing influenza outbreaksglobally in the future.

New tools are helping us find outmore about pathogen evolution. We have

begun the process of sequencing thefull genomes of large numbers of

pathogens to discover patterns ofchange that happen throughoutan epidemic. This gives us aninsight into how pathogensspread and means we can iden-

tify the source of infection faster.But even with all the improve-

ments in vaccines, anti-virals andsurveillance methods of the past 100 years,our population growth since the SpanishFlu outbreak means it is still possible apandemic influenza would overwhelm our

medical system. A 2006Treasury document

predicted 40 per centof the population would

become infected, with a fatality rate of twoper cent. The situation will be even moreserious if the disease is something entirelynew, as the HIV/AIDS virus was, and scien-tists have to go through the process ofpathogen discovery to produce a vaccine.

To truly understand how pathogensmove we need to break down the barriersbetween human and animal health. Thisbrings together medical and veterinaryexpertise to address transmission cyclesthat involve both people and animals.

Staying ahead of pathogens as theyevolve is vital for our health, our food andour economy — if our technology can’t keepahead of our own demographic changes wewill be in serious trouble.Professor Nigel French is the director of theInfectious Disease Research Centre at MasseyUniversity.

It’s becoming increasingly difficult to battle the bugsthat make us sick as highly contagious pathogensevolve more quickly, and it is partly our fault,writes Professor Nigel French

28 HEALTH

BADBUGS:SHOULDWEPANICABOUTPANDEMICS?

Clockwise fromtop left,membersof thepublic await

their turnat the inhalationchamberas aprecautionagainst

theSpanishFlu, 1918; EvevanGrafhorst, aboveonbike in 1986,

was the first child inNewZealandregisteredashavingAids; facemasks

havebecomeacommonway to fightoffinfectiousdiseases in the21st century.

Pictures /APN

But what about thegood bugs? Howbacteria might

save us. http://tiny.cc/futurenz

FUTURENEWZEALAND - NOVEMBER14,2013

Providing ways for the elderly to liveindependently for longer will be one ofthe key social issues New Zealand faces inthe future. While social services need tobe revolutionised, technology — includingrobotics — will also have a role to play.

A robotic exoskeleton that helps afrail or disabled person lift things or walkaround sounds pretty futuristic. But thesethings already exist — it’s just a matter ofthe technology becoming more affordableand readily available.

New Zealand’s Rex Bionics andJapanese manufacturer Cyberdyne arejust two examples of firms already in thismarket. Rex Bionics’ robotic legs allowwheelchair-bound users to sit, stand, walkand turn with relative ease. The system iscontrolled via a joystick and used mainlyby sufferers of degenerative diseases, such

as Multiple Sclerosis, or spinalinjuries.

Even more impressive isCyberdyne’s Hybrid AssistiveLimb (HAL), an exoskeletonsuit jointly developedwith Japan’s TsukubaUniversity. The suitis designed to assistelderly peoplewith daily tasks,including walking,although it can alsohelp the able-bodiedto lift heavier loads.HAL registers biosignals onthe surface of the wearer’s skinto amplify their movements and isalready used in rehabilitation inJapanese hospitals and nursing

homes.Robotic nurses

are another popularapproach. In Japan theuse of robots in hospitalsis growing all the time. It’snot hard to imagine a timewhen the elderly or disa-

bled will be able to travelaround without the need for

a walking frame or wheelchair.The next-generation poweredexoskeletons will no doubt be

more streamlined, respon-sive and cost-effective to

produce.Frazer Noble is a lecturerwith Massey University’s

School of Engineering &Advanced Technology.

Apill that will make humans livefor longer may sound like themythical Fountain of Youth, butit could be developed in thenext 30 years.

Creating an anti-ageing pill requiresa target that the pill will modify, usuallya gene or genetic pathway. There is nowoverwhelming evidence for a strong geneticbasis to ageing. On the one hand this isn’ttoo surprising; longevity is known to runin families. On the other hand, isn’t ageingjust a gradual, random deterioration? Thisnotion was thrown out by studies showingthat mutations in just a single gene candramatically increase the lifespan of simpleorganisms like nematode worms.

I’ve taken the approach of looking forageing genes in simple organisms and thenchecking to see if humans have a similargenetic pathway working in the same way.

We believe ageing works more or lessin the same way in a wide range of speciesbecause it is universal, so the core ageinggenes are likely to be universal as well.But therein lies the trick: the Holy Grail ofageing research is finding these universalageing genes, rather than the ones specificto each species.

The bigger question is whether livinglonger is really what we want. In an over-populated, ageing future society, the focusmust be on living better, rather than livinglonger. What we really want is a pill thatincreases the years of healthy living.

Recent research shows that inseveral species ageing treatments canimprove healthspan more than lifespan.

The aim is to find a genetic pathway ofageing in humans that pharmaceuticals cantarget to reduce the impact of ageing.

Ageing research is making rapidprogress, and in the short term we face atension between individual interests andsocietal interests. Shifting the focus toimproving healthspan, rather than lifespanis essential. In the long term the issues getmore complex, and we must understandwhat we are trading off for a longer life.

After all, there’s another kind ofimmortal cell that you will have heard of.Cancer. And that’s the kind of unpredict-able outcome no one wants.

Dr Austen Ganley is a senior lecturerwith Massey University’s Institute

of Natural and MathematicalSciences. His current researchfocuses on the role of rDNA genesin the ageing process.

WEARABLEROBOTSKEEPELDERLYMOVING

FINDINGTHEFOUNTAINOFYOUTH

Improvements in robottechnologywill helpwiththe careofour ageingpopulation.

30 GADGETS FUTURENEWZEALAND - NOVEMBER14,2013

Dr Austin Ganley

Frazer Noble

THERIGHTDEVICEIf there’s one thing futurists agree on about what’s coming in the next fewdecades gadget-wise, it’s that the line between objects and bodies will blur.Peter Griffin highlights some futuristic prototypes

MEDICINE ONA CHIPThe concept of embedding electronicmedical devices in the bodybecame a realitymore than 50 years agowith the arrival of theheart pacemaker. Theminiaturisation of computer componentsnowmeans all sorts ofmedical sensors and devices are ready forthe flesh. TheMedical Implant Communications Service (MICS)frequency band is an embedded chip that acts as an antenna tobeam info about the state of the body to doctors on the outside.As well as keeping tabs on blood pressure, circulation andmetab-olism, it will also work with neurostimulation devices. Expect toswallow one on a trip to the doctor circa 2030.

SPINCYCLETheOrbit will revolu-

tionisewashingmachines usinga ‘‘cryogenic cleaning system” to scrubyour clothes. A sphere that holds your

laundry levitates in a superconducting ringlinedwith liquid nitrogen-cooled electromagnets,spinning quickly as it is bombardedwith jets of

CO2which blast the dirt off the clothes. It doesn’t usepowder orwater, giving it serious green credentials.

ANICE GESTUREScientists have been working onmore natural and ergonomic waysto control gadgets for years, with Microsoft’s Kinect motion cameraand hand-waving controls built into the new wave of smart TVs finallytaking the remote control out of the picture. But cameras can onlydetect so much. For subtle gestures you’ll need the Myo, an armbandthat detects electrical activity in your muscles. Tap your little fingerto lower your stereo’s volume or point at the phone to answer it. TheMyo will work wirelessly with all sorts of gadgets and will debut nextyear for $150.

BEYOND FOUR EYESGoogle Glass, the augmented reality glasses developed by thesearch engine giant, has been lauded as the new gadget of theyear. But Korean scientists are close tomaking glass obsolete.The answer lies in graphene, an incredibly thin and flexible newnanotechnology. The Koreans have embedded a graphene-based, light-emitting diode into a standard contact lens, allowingimages to be beamed directly onto the eye. Testing the lenseson rabbits shows no damage or irritation of the eyes, so it’s fullsteam ahead developing them for humans. Eventually we couldbe slipping on contact lenses to augment our worldviewwithdata feeds, to take photos andwatchmovies.

GADGETSFUTURENEWZEALAND - NOVEMBER14,2013 31

Massey is New Zealand’s defining and only trulynational university for young New Zealanders;educating, shaping and inspiring minds.

Massey University’s three state-of-the-art campusesin Albany, Manawatu and Wellington (plus aleading distance learning programme), providea world-class education, offering the largest numberof degree programmes available at any universityin New Zealand. With award-winning teachersand lecturers, and world-renowned researchers,we really are the engine of the new New Zealand.

At Massey University you don’t just get a degree– you come out with the practical skills to createa better future for New Zealand, and the world.

Our students, staff and alumni are the “engine“that is driving change, all over the world.

Join us in the new New Zealand.

ENROL NOW FOR 2014.MASSEY.AC.NZ

GREAT FUTURESSTART HERE

TRAC

TA50

772-NZH

Become partof the engineof the newNew Zealand.

Transforming our lives, work, health, business - Massey University

Documents

Transcript of Transforming our lives, work, health, business - Massey University