Transforming Mobility:The Signal in the Noise

Autonomous Vehicles:Crafting Policy to Accelerate Deployment

July 20, 2015

Larry BurnsProfessor of Engineering Practice

University of Michigan

What am I hearing?

What am I seeing?

What am I saying?

Perspectives On Driverless Vehicles

Later• Buffett (BH):

“Aren’t coming soon”

• Mertens (Volvo):

“Very, very long-term vision”

• Lauckner (GM):

“Into the future a good distance”

• Insurance Info. Institute:

“Between 15 and 20 years away”

• Zetsche (Daimler):

“By 2025”

Sooner• Musk (Tesla):

“A solved problem….in a few years”

• Fields (Ford):

“Within 5 years”

• Brin (Google):

“By 2018”

• Ghosn (Renault-Nissan):

“By 2020”

• Zetsche (Daimler):

“Might not have a steering wheel”

What am I hearing?

What am I seeing?

What am I saying?

New Automotive “DNA”

Historical “DNA”

• Mechanical Drive

• Combustion Engines

• Oil-based Fuels

• Mechanical & Hydraulic

• Stand-alone

• Personally Owned

• Human Operated

• General Purpose

New “DNA”

• Electrical Drive

• Electric Motors

• Diverse Energy Sources

• Electronic & Digital

• Connected and Coordinated

• Shared

• Driverless

• Tailored

Connected & Coordinated Vehicles

Consumer Benefits• Lower Cost Insurance

• Crash Avoidance

• Hands-free calling

• Navigation

• Emergency response

• Stolen car recovery

• Concierge services

• “Black-box” crash recorders

• Remote software upgrades

• Traffic/road conditions

• Enhanced situation awareness

• Less risk overall

Business Opportunities• Usage-based insurance (UBI)

• Driver “Scores”

• Advertisement/marketing

• Vehicle development

• Warranty cost reduction

• Vehicle diagnostics and prognostics

• Fleet management

• Infotainment

• Parking systems

• Road pricing

• Customer relationship management

• Shared Vehicle Mobility Services (Uber, Lyft, RelayRides,…)

Google Self-Driving Car

Strategic Partnership

Truck Automation Projects• Mercedes Future Truck 2025

• KONVOI (EU)

• SARTRE (EU)

• UC Berkeley-PATH (USA)

• NEDO (Japan-ITS Energy)

• SCANIA Transport Lab(EU)

• AMAS (US Army)

• FHWA (US DOT – initiated)

• Peloton

• I-69 Corridor

• …..Unclassified

Business Model Innovation

Historical

Sell Vehicles, Gasoline and Insurance

New

Sell Miles, Trips and Experiences

What am I hearing?

What am I seeing?

What am I saying?

Transformational Opportunity

Connected+

Coordinated+

Shared+

Driverless+

Tailored

Better Mobility Experiencesat Radically Lower Consumer and Societal Cost

Better Mobility Experiences

• Safer

• More Convenient

• More Productive

• More Personalized

• More Affordable

Benefitting All Attributes Simultaneously!

Lower Consumer Cost

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Driver/Personal/Conventional Driverless/Shared/Tailored

$/M

ile

Cost/Mile Title Time Cost

Money Cost

$1.60 Time Value = Median Wage($25/hr)

Time Value = Minimum Wage

$0.75

$0.25

$1.00 $2 to $4 TrillionPer Year In U.S.

Lower Societal Cost

• Fewer Fatalities

• Fewer Injuries

• Lower Health Costs

• Less Energy Use

• Less CO2 Emissions

• Less Congestion

• Better Land Use

• More Equitable Access

Reducing All Side Effects Simultaneously!

3 Questions

1. Are driverless vehicles real?

2. If so, when?

3. Does it matter?

My Perspective

1. Are driverless vehicles real? Yes

2. If so, when? Possibly by 2018

3. Does it matter? The consumer and business opportunities are compelling

What am I hearing?

What am I seeing?

What am I saying?

What should we be doing?

Think Big

Start Small

Learn Fast

Source: Chunka Mui

PossibleFutures Personal Shared

Driverless

Driver

VEHICLECONTROL

VEHICLE USE

PossibleFutures

New Automobile

Age

NewMobility

Age

CurrentAutomobile

System

NewMobilityMarkets

Personal Shared

Driverless

Driver

VEHICLECONTROL

VEHICLE USE

Key Questions: Who, How and When?

CUSTOMERS• People: Mobility Experiences

- Safe, Spontaneous, Responsive, Seamless, Compelling, Affordable,Secure

• Goods: Delivery Services- Safe, Timely, Convenient, Reliable,

Efficient, Secure

SERVICE PROVIDERS• Brands• Customer Interfaces• Employees

• Business Models• Operating Systems• Service Capabilities

TIER 1 SUPPLIERS• Driverless, Connected, Tailored

Vehicles (Robots)• Maintenance/Fueling • Customer Apps

• Back Office Systems

- Information Management- Dispatch- Financial- Customer Relations

TIER 2 SUPPLIERS• Driverless & Connected Vehicle Systems• Propulsions Systems

• Business Analytics (“Big” Data)• Designers (Vehicles & Experiences)

TIER 3 SUPPLIERS

• Infrastructure- Roads- Communications- Energy

• Public Policy

• Innovators- Scientists- Engineers- Entrepreneurs

• Workforce- Education- Training

• Standards and Regulations

• Insurance• Risk Management• Financing

SYSTEM ENABLERS

• Digital Maps• Lasers, Radars, Cameras• Processors• Controllers & Actuators• Software

• Algorithms• Sensors• Motors • Energy

- Supply

- Storage

• Materials

Who

MobilityEco-System

How

Several Possible Futures

Will Mature Simultaneously

Incumbents vs. Disruptors

Vested Interests vs. New Winners

Sooner

• Connected Vehicles

• Coordinated Vehicles

• Shared Vehicles

• Self-Driving Features

• Lower Mass Vehicles

• Significant Hybrid Share

• Platooned Trucks

• Smart Parking Systems

• Real-Time Traffic Control

• Improved Safety

Later

• Internet of “Things”

• Integrated Intermodal System

• Driverless-Shared Fleets

• Driverless Vehicles

• Tailored Vehicles

• Significant Electric Vehicle Share

• Driverless Trucks

• Significantly Less Parking

• Real-Time Situation Awareness

• > 90% Fewer Crashes

When

Final Thoughts

Why Hasn’t Roadway Transportation Transformed?

• Integrated System– Broad Usage– Significant Co-dependencies– Very Complex

• Huge Inertia– Massive Scale– Strong Vested Interests

• Evolved Myopically– Addressed with Individual Technologies– Addressed by Individual Sectors

Promising “Cure”

Connected and Autonomous Vehicles Offer a Promising “Cure” to the Roadway Safety Epidemic

• Over 90% Fewer Crashes

• Not Risk-free

• We Must Safely Learn on Public Roads to Mitigate Risks

Compelling Synergy

• Crashes Vary By– Location– Time– Circumstances

• Connected Vehicles Enable Real-time Situation Awareness– Historical + Real-time Data– Advanced Analytics– Determine Real-time Risk By Location, Time and Circumstances

• Autonomous Vehicles Can Avoid Risky Situations

Proactive Risk Management

While we cannot let technology get in front of safety, we also must realize the full potential of promising cures as soon as possible

History Lesson:

National Vaccine Injury Compensation Program (NVICP)

An Idea

Establish the

National Connected and Autonomous Vehicle Injury Compensation Program ( Modeled After NVICP )

Annual $3 Billion Fund = 1/10th Cent Per Mile

– 1/80th of Car Insurance Cost

In Closing….

Beware of Premature Policy

• Are new laws/regulations really necessary to enable autonomous vehicle testing in states and communities?– Google has demonstrated its technology in several states without specific

laws in place– Delphi’s self driving car went from California to New York, through many

states with no laws (e.g., Texas, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona)

– UK, Singapore and Sweden are testing autonomous vehicles on public roads without new laws being drafted

– A law does not have to refer to a new technology to make it legal

• A rush to create new laws/regulations could stifle innovation– Mandated technologies or approaches may not be the best in the long run– Well-intended policy-makers should instead learn about the technology,

keep a watchful eye on progress, and only write new laws when absolutely necessary based on facts and real-world experiences

The Signal In The Noise

• As leaders, we have a responsibility to proactively accelerate connected and autonomous vehicles– Key enabler of sustainable mobility

– Accelerating 1 day saves 3,000 lives!

• We must work together to safely go faster– Think big, start small and learn fast

– Do not let risk impede action

– Do not let vested interests slow progress

Proactive Leadership: Example

"This nation should commit itself to achieving the goal, before the decade is out, of landing a man on the moon and returning him safely to the earth.”

President John F. Kennedy, May 25, 1961

President Kennedy thought big

NASA started small with Mercury and learned fast with Gemini and Apollo

Apollo 11 astronauts landed on the moon on July 20, 1969 and returned home safely

Imagine if instead, President Kennedy said…

“Once we have eliminated all of the risks, we will better understand whether it is possible to send a man to the moon and whether we should try to do so.”

“Mobility Moonshot”

This nation should commit to achieving the goal,

before 2025, of safely enabling the full potential

of connected and autonomous vehicles for all

people individually and together