Transformation Technologies in Transportation

Mark R. Norman, P.E.Director, TRB Program Development

& Strategic Initiatives

Transformational, or “disruptive” technologies, are those that can be expected to completely displace the status quo, forever changing the way we live

and work.

TRB Hot Topic: TRANSFORMATIONAL

TECHNOLOGIES

Internet, personal computer, email, smartphone, GPS, big data

TRANSFORMATIONAL TECHNOLOGIES:

General Examples

Connected/automated vehicles, shared vehicles, advanced versions of on-demand shared ride and micro-transit services, NextGen, unmanned aerial systems, cog in

“internet-of-things”

TRANSFORMATIONAL TECHNOLOGIES:Transportation

Key 2015 TRB Activities:Transformational

Technologies• EU-US Symposium “Towards Road Transport Automation”

April 14-15, 2015; Washington, DC• Automated Vehicle Symposium: July 20-24, 2015; Ann Arbor,

MI• Impacts of Automated Vehicles on State and Local

Transportation Agencies (NCHRP 20-102)• Review of USDOT Report on Connected Vehicle Initiative

Communications Systems Deployment• UTC Symposium on Connected/Automated Vehicles,

November 4-5, 2015; Washington, DC• Urban Mobility Systems: TRB Policy Study (December 2015)

Virginia is a Leader!

• Virginia Tech & UVA• I-395 Demonstration (October 20, 2015)• VDOT Lead for State Pooled Fund Study

Connected & Automated Vehicles:Some Points (& Counterpoints)

From TRB Conferences, Meetings, and Research

Projects

Automated Vehicles Will Be Available to the Public by 2020

Automated Vehicles Will Be NOT Available to the Public That Soon

Automated Vehicles Will Be the Biggest Transformational Change

Since the Invention of the Automobile

4

Automated Vehicles May NOT Significantly Change Transportation

Source: James Anderson, Rand5

This Will be the Next Federal Interstate-Type Program

6

Not! Others Will be Leading the Way

7

These Vehicles Must be Connected with the Infrastructure to be Successful

8

Automated Vehicles Can Succeed on Their Own

9

Something everywherevs.

everything somewhere

Connected-Automated Vehicles Will Eliminate 80 Percent of Serious

Accidents

10

The Potential Safety Impacts of These Vehicles Can’t be Taken for Granted

11

Connected – Automated Vehicles Will Eliminate Congestion

12

Traffic Congestion Will Remain a Serious Problem – And Might Get

Worse

13

Connected-Automated Vehicles Will Be Better for the Environment & Land

Use

14

These Vehicles Will Negatively Affect the Environment & Land Use

15

Will Enable Data Driven Solutions

14

Big Data Will Create Its Own Issues

15

• Collection, sharing, and analysis

• Ownership• Privacy and security• Reserved spectrum

Some Things We Can Agree On!

• The truth lies somewhere in the middle

• We have more questions than answers – need research!

• Need to get started

Between Public and Private Mobility:

Examining the Rise of Technology-Enabled

Services-A Policy Study-

What Are Technology-Enabled Services?

• Bike-sharing• Car-sharing• Ridesharing/Transportation

Network Companies• Uber, Lyft, and Sidecar

• Microtransit• Bridj, Leap, Chariot, Loup

What is a TNC?

• Transportation Network Company• Most common are Uber, Lyft, and

Sidecar• Allows a passenger to request and

pay for a ride via a smartphone app

Transportation Network Companies: Common

Model• Most common (and contentious) version connects riders with individuals driving their own personal vehicles

• TNCs take a percentage (generally 15-30%) of each fare

• Driver keeps the rest

Rise of the TNCsUber (launched in 2010)• $50B valuation• 58 countries, 300+ cities• 160,000 drivers• More Uber cars in NYC than taxis

Lyft• $2B valuation• 65 cities in the U.S.• Has not released other numbers

Sidecar• 10 cities in the U.S.

Impact on Travel Volume?• Too early to tell

• San Francisco Survey:• 1/3 of TNC users

would have taken transit

• About 8% induced travel

• Much of data is in private sector

Access & Equity: Concerns• Potential equity concerns

for:• Unbanked populations:

TNCs require a credit card to be on file.

• Those without smart phones

• Disabled users. TNCs are not required to have wheelchair accessible vehicles.

Access & Equity: Potential Upsides

TNCs also improve access for some populations• Many paratransit users

can use TNCs instead with far faster pickup times

• Paratransit services are a major cost for transit properties

• Many cities/neighborhoods do not have readily available street-hail cabs

Safety : DriverBackground

Checks• Taxi industry: Fingerprint drivers• Uber and Lyft: Run checks with name,

birthday, SSN, and driver’s license number

• Which is better?• Currently a (spirited) policy debate• Little analytical evidence of the

effectiveness of either method

Safety: Information Availability• Passengers have: driver’s name, photo, rating,

car type, and license plate number• Drivers have: passenger name and photo (if

passenger uploaded one), and have recourse in the event of an incident (such as a bar pickup getting sick)

• Trip is tracked from passenger request to driver match to passenger pickup to passenger drop-off.• Passenger is emailed a detailed receipt.

Safety Issues: DUIs

• Many claims about Uber/Lyft/Sidecar reducing DUIs• Correlation between arrival in a

city and reduction in DUIs, especially among those under 40

• No rigorous analysis yet• Could be due to a combination of factors

Labor Issues• TNC employees currently classified

as contractors (“IRS1099” employees)

• Flexibility to work or not, set hours• All expenses fall to driver• Vehicle

• Phone/data plan• Health insurance• Other

Labor Issues: Rulings to Date• June 2015: California Labor

Commission ruled one Uber driver is an employee• Uber has appealed

• Other lawsuits are pending.• Employee vs.

contractor ruling could have significant effects on business models of TNCs

Shared Vehicles: What is the

Ultimate Vision?• Beyond a ride-hailing service• Changing the car ownership model• Providing critical first-mile/last-mile

access• Revolutionizing carpooling &

transit• Leveraging driverless vehicle

technologies

Challenges to Public Agencies• Technology Tsunami

• Facilitate Innovation vs. Public Safety

• Revenue Impacts• Taxi medallions• Parking• Traffic Fines

• Investments in Traditional Transit• Adapting Infrastructure & Land Use

TRB Policy Study• “Between Public and

Private Mobility: Examining the Rise of Technology-Enabled Services”

• Summarizes state of the practice

• Recommendations for policy-makers, planners, and legislators

• Release in late 2015

Are our traditional research processes nimble enough to prepare public

agencies in an age of transformational technologies?

Final Question: Transformational Technologies

& Research

Questions?

Mark Normanmnorman@nas.edu