Transcontinental Flight Capacity

Peter CerussiMichael Gerson

2

Backstory

• Effects of Sept 11, 2001– Shook America to it’s core– Demonstrated vulnerabilities to attack– Changed airport security procedures

• The airports are still vulnerable…• Americans consider flight as a symbol of

freedom• Terrorist want to deny transcontinental travel

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3

Problem Statement

• How does the loss of an airport or airports effect the ability of the airlines to move people across country?

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Nodes

M4

Start Nodes

M5

End Nodes

M6

Example of Edges

M7

Example of Capacity

1

31

1

2

2

M8

9

Data

• Department of Transportation– Bureau of Transportation Statistics

• Amount of flights per month • Divided by 31 for average daily flights

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Example of an Attack

1

31

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2

2

P10

11

Nodal Statistics

Transcontinental Capacity: 1110

Start Nodes:Total flights: 1894

End Nodes:Total flights:

3415

SEA

SFO

LAX

MSPDEN

ORD

HOU

DFW

SLC

BOS

ATL

IAD

JFK

ST

Largest AirportsAtlanta 568Chicago 501Los Angeles 463Denver 453

Phoenix 440Dallas 421Las Vegas 375Houston 299

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12

Attacking Transcontinental Travel

• Terrorist attack transcontinental travel

MP

S E440 440∞

Attacking Transcontinental Travel

Destroy

M13

Attacking Transcontinental Travel

Destroy

M14

15

Comparative Results

Largest Airports• Atlanta568• Chicago 501• Los Angeles463• Denver453• Phoenix 440• Dallas 421• Las Vegas 375• Houston 299

Attacked Airports• Los Angeles 463• San Francisco 276• Seattle 211• San Diego 202• Phoenix 440• Las Vegas 375• Denver 453• Salt Lake City 219

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16

Operator Resilience Curve

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17

FBI Involvement

• The initial plan is to attack the west coast• FBI was alerted to the plan and intervenes• Resource restrictions are limited to four nodes• The four largest nodes are protected

– Seattle– San Francisco– Los Angeles– San Diego

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FBI Involvement

Destroy

P18

FBI Involvement

Destroy

P19

20

Comparative Results

Largest Airports• Atlanta568• Chicago 501• Los Angeles463• Denver453• Phoenix 440• Dallas 421• Las Vegas 375• Houston 299

Attacked Airports• Phoenix 463• Las Vegas 276• Denver 211• Dallas 202• Houston 440• New York 375• Atlanta 453

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21

Comparative OR Curve

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22

New Assumption

• Travelers will have no more than 2 layovers

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S E440 440∞

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Nodal Statistics

Transcontinental Capacity: 480

Start Nodes:Total flights: 1894

End Nodes:Total flights:

3415

SEA

SFO

LAX

MSPDEN

ORD

HOU

DFW

SLC

BOS

ATL

IAD

JFK

ST

Largest AirportsAtlanta 568Chicago 501Los Angeles 463Denver 453

Phoenix 440Dallas 421Las Vegas 375Houston 299

M

Attacking Transcontinental Travel

Destroy

M24

Attacking Transcontinental Travel

Destroy

M25

26

Operator Resilience Curve

0%

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27

New Assumption

• Travelers will have no more than 2 layovers• Attacks degrade airports

– If attacked airports capacity is 50%– A second attack and the airport is destroyed

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S

M2

M1

E

220

∞

∞

220

440 440

Attacking Transcontinental Travel

Degrade

Destroy

P28

Attacking Transcontinental Travel

P29

30

Operator Resilience Curve 2

0%

P

31

New Assumption

• Travelers will have no more than 2 layovers• Attacks degrade airports

– If attacked airports capacity is 20% – A second attack and the airport is destroyed

MP

S

M2

M1

E

352

∞

∞

88

440 440

Attacking Transcontinental Travel

M32

Attacking Transcontinental Travel

M33

34

Operator Resilience Curve 3

0%

M

35

Conclusion

• If there is terrorist chatter regarding attacks on transcontinental travel, authorities can predict the location of the attacks

• If there is terrorist chatter regarding attacks on the west coast, authorities should be prepared for significant lose in transcontinental travel

• Airports should be designed such that they are difficult to completely destroy

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36

Follow-Implementations

• Change the start and end airports• Adjust the damage levels• Adjust the number of attacks per airport• Add additional nodes

QuestionsTranscontinental Flight Capacity

Peter CerussiMichael Gerson

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