Transboundary Pollution Issues are of Growing Importance S-Deposition RAINS-Asia –Carmichael et...
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Transcript of Transboundary Pollution Issues are of Growing Importance S-Deposition RAINS-Asia –Carmichael et...
Transboundary Pollution Issues are of Growing Importance
Japan
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S-Deposition
RAINS-Asia –Carmichael et al., (2001)
•Need to assess inter-model variability.•The MICS-ASIA Study: Model InterComparison of Long-Range Transport and Sulfur Deposition in East Asia
How Robust Are The Source-Receptor Relationships?
Many different models with important similarities and differences:Lagrangian, Eulerian, Hybrid, etc.
Participant(s) Organization Model name Model type
Main model focus
S.-B. Kim,T.-Y. Lee, K-Y. Ma
Dept of Atmospheric Sciences, Yonsei University, Seoul (Korea)
YU-SADM (Yonsei Univ.-
Sulfur Acid Dep. Model)
3D Eulerian
Long-term period or episodic estimation of sulfur sources contributions
H. Hayami, Y. Ichikawa
CRIEPI (Japan) CRIEPI trajectory model
Lagrangian
1-layer
Long-term evaluation
H. Hayami, O. Hertel,Y. Ichikawa
CRIEPI (Japan) and National Env. Research Institute (Denmark)
ACDEP ASIA Lagrangian
1-layer
Long-term evaluation
I. Uno,E.S. Jang
Research Institute for Applied Mech., Kyushu Univ, Fukuoka (Japan)
RIAM version of RAMS on-line tracer model
3D Eulerian
Episodic and long-term simulation for chemical climate studies
Y. Ikeda, R. Yasuda, H. Nakaminami
Osaka Prefecture University (Japan)
OPU-Model (Osaka
Prefecture Univ.)
3D Eulerian
Long-term deposition
S.Y. Cho, G. Carmichael
CGRER, University of Iowa
STEM 3D Eulerian
Episodic and long-term studies
G. Calori, G. Carmichael
CGRER, University of Iowa
ATMOS-2 Lagrangian
multi-layer
Long-term conc. and depositions of sulfur in Asia. Source-receptor relationships.
M. Engardt Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute
MATCH 3D Eulerian
Long-term concentrations and depositions of ozone and acidifying substances
SO2 concentrations - 11-20 January
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SO4 concentrations - 11-20 January
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SO4 wet depositions - 11-20 January
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Comparison with monitoring data for the 11-20 January period.
Monitoring station location and emission distribution at Kanghwa (left) and Tsushima (right)
Spatial resolution is 1 deg on upper and 30 sec on bottom
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SO2 cSO4 wetSO4
Bias (abs [obs.-calc.]/calc.*100) of model calculated quantities for the month of January. (Task A)
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Komae
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Jinan
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Beijin
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Nangok
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Otobe
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Amam
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Kashim
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Tokor
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Hachij
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Oki (J
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Tsus
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(J)
Fukue
(J)
Miya
ko (J
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Taito
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Site
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s(R
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Model 2
Model 3
Model 4
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mean
Correlation between observed and predicted data by monitoring site. (Task A)
Example of 10 day- averaged surface SO2 concentrations (January 1-10) calculated by the participating models.(Task A)
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Regionl
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Model 2
Model 5
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Wet to total sulfur ratio in depositions for both months (January and May together) over the target regions.(Task
A)
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Model - Task
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Total sulfur depositions for both months (January and May together) and contributions due to each process over
selected target regions. (Left: S. Korea; Right Central China)
Upper panels: results from Task B. Lower panels: Task A vs. Task B.
Uncertainty in the Source-Receptor Relationships
Receptor 4 - Komae (Japan)
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NW ASIA
SE ASIA
TAIWAN
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JAPAN
Inter-model VariabilityReceptor 16 - Nanjing (China)
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5 day iso-sigma back-trajectories arriving in Taichung Shown are the frequency distribution of all 3-hour end points
over the entire month of trajectories originated at the receptor.
Uncertainty in the Source-Receptor Relationships
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Contribution (%)
Variability
(%
)
INDI -> LAOS
VOLC -> INDO
KORN -> KORS
CHIN -> J APA
THAI -> CAMB
INDI -> BANG
INDI -> MYAN
FSU -> MONGCHIN -> CAMB
INDI -> BHUT
INDI -> INDI
CHIN -> CAMB
Interannual Variability (10-yrs)
Effect of Interannual Meteorological Variability
on Sulfur Deposition can be Much Larger than
Changes in Emissions!China
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Japan
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Is there climate feedback link?
Regional Air Pollution Issues
• Long-range transport: Northern China Korea Japan North America (?!)
• Regional visibility impairment, reduced insolation--compounded by dust from western deserts, climate implications
• Acid rain, sulfur deposition, nitrogen deposition (NH3 involvement from fertilizer use), eutrophicaion of surface waters
• Regional ozone formation, caused by organics + NOx
with the involvement of CO and CH4
• Trace elements from coal combustion, particularly Hg
Nitrate Deposition is of Growing Importance
Tracey’s Work
Nitrate Deposition is of Growing Importance
% of Total Deposition as Nitrate
Tracey’s Work
Observed pH
S/Ca>1
Deposition of Dust Plays an Important Role in Neutralizing Acid Deposition
The CFORS forecast (upper left) of the two dust systems are shown above. The dust plume (pink) represents the region with dust concentrations greater than 200 grams/m3. White indicates clouds. The SeaWifs satellite image (upper right) also clearly shows the accumulation of dust spiraling into the Low Pressure center. Also note the strong outflow of dust in the warm sector “ahead” of the front over the Japan Sea. The two systems are clearly seen in the satellite derived TOMS-AI (aerosol index) (lower right). The dust event is clearly seen in the China SEPA air pollution monitoring network. Lower left hand panel shows extremely large ground level concentrations (http://www.ess.uci.edu/~oliver/tracep/airqual/index.html). The sandstorm and sand-drifting weather, which swept across most parts of China caused severe visibility and air quality problems
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/20010409/395181.htm
NASA-Seawifs
ACE-Asia (NSF) & TRACE-P (NASA)
Spring 2001 Experiments
NASA/GTE DC-8
Dust (Pink) and Sulfate Dust and CO
The Long Range Transport of Dust is a Well Recognized Phenomena in East Asia---
Pollution is Transported the Same Way!!
April 08, 2001
AOD (dust=color, BC+OC=line)
AOD SO4
A comparison between the CFORS predictions and that observed by satellite (TOMS-AI)
http://www.cgrer.uiowa.edu/ACESS/Perfect_Storm_Pres.html
The Changing Air Quality of the Northern Hemisphere
Pacific Basin
• Pressures are from the Pacific Rim Countries and beyond.
• Changing patterns and growth rates of energy use and resulting emissions are the primary forcing factors -- with East and West following different paths.
• Impacts are local, regional (East and West), basin-wide, and global.
• Complexities in transport and chemistry over the Pacific greatly challenge present modeling and measurement efforts.
UNEXPECTED DECREASES IN CHINA’S SULFUR EMISSIONS
New Two-Zone Control Policy
SEPA
BAU – ca 1990’s
Actual
The importance of black carbon has only recently been
recognized
(Hansen et al., PNAS, 2001)
Linkages of Air Pollution to Climate Change
O3 (0.3+0.1) Black (0.8)Carbon
China Emissions in 20001 (Tg)
in
China’s emissions (2000 – 1995) (Tg)
Total global fossil fuel emission ca~1995 (Tg)
Change in China’s emissions as
% of global total anthropogenic fuel combustion (%)
Temp. Response functionT/Emissions(K/Tg) 2,4
Estimated Change in global temperatures due to changes in China’s emissions between 1995 and 2000(K) 3,4
SO2 20.8 -4.95 134 -3.7% -8.2 10-3 +0.04
BC 0.91 -0.43 5.1 -8.4% 6.5 10-2 -0.026
CO2 3,218 -109 29,700 -0.037% 3.0 10-5 -0.003
CH4 33.4 +1.16 360 +0.32% 7.5 10-4 +0.001
Net change: = +0.012
Air Pollution and Climate Issues are Intimately Linked
Republic of Korea
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Total S depositions: 1975-2000 % change
Em issions as of 7.3.2000
Change in Sulfur Deposition between 1975 and 2000.
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P.R. China
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Sea lanes
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Volcanoes Sea lanes Taiwan
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Japan P.R. China
The Role of Chemical Weather Forecasting is of Growing Importance
• Field Campaign Planning• Field Observation Design• Traffic (Aviation)
Management• Visibility• Environmental Management• Health Alerts
Flight pathSoundingheight
obs. point
Annual averaged Surface level SO4
2-
Simulated Kosa Onset April 98
Considerations for Future MICS Studies
• Many regional modeling efforts in East Asia (Models 3 Community Modeling, Hong Kong EPA, ChinaMap, etc.) How to include them? And Chinese models?
• Nitrate & longer-term have been identified as important next steps
• I also see the importance of such studies for dust, PM2.5/10, AOD, and even extending to ozone.
Thank You !!!
South Korea
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Annual Sulfur Deposition
Comparison of TOMS-AI and Surface ObsComparison of TOMS-AI and Surface Obs