Trans-Tasman Migration and Catching Up With Australia
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Trans-Tasman Migration and Catching Up With Australia About Our Kaussies and Us Jacques Poot Professor of Population Economics, NIDEA and WMS Launch Symposium, November 24 th 2010
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Trans-Tasman Migration and Catching Up With Australia. About Our Kaussies and Us Jacques Poot Professor of Population Economics, NIDEA and WMS Launch Symposium, November 24 th 2010. Hot of the Press: the latest trans-Tasman migration statistics. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Trans-Tasman Migration and Catching Up With Australia
Trans-Tasman Migration and Catching Up With Australia
About Our Kaussies and Us
Jacques PootProfessor of Population Economics, NIDEA and WMS
Launch Symposium, November 24th 2010
Hot of the Press: the latest trans-Tasman migration statistics
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000 NZ citizens from Aus to NZNZ citizens from NZ to AusOther citizens from Aus to NZOther citizens from NZ to Aus
Year ending October
Number of PLT migrants
Trans-Tasman migration over the centuries
18711876
18811886
18911896
19011906
19111916
19211926
19311936
19411946
19511956
19611966
19711976
19811986
19911996
20012006
20110
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
NZ-born living in AustraliaAus-born living in New Zealand
Census Year
Num
ber
Real GDP per capita: Australia, New Zealand and OECD, 1950-2007
• Trans-Tasman differences in real income growth have clearly played an important role in net migration
• But there are many demographic, economic and social “drivers” of gross migration
• The same phenomena are driving migration flows between Dunedin and Auckland, between Adelaide and Brisbane, and between Auckland and Sydney
• Trade and capital flows can contribute to “catching up”, migration is a “barometer” of convergence or divergence
• In today’s world, “catching up” and “falling behind” can occur at the same time: what matters is “who you are” and “where you are”
Causes and consequences of trans-Tasman migration
The Trans-Tasman born as a percentage of the host population
X(t)
V(t)NZ population
New Zealanders in Australia
R(t)
V = NZ population who have not yet lived in Australia X = New Zealanders in AustraliaR = Return migrants from Australia
Births & immigration
from RoW
Deaths & emigration to
RoW
Emigration to Australia Return
migration to NZ
Deaths & emigration to
RoW
Deaths & emigration to
RoW
Repeat migration to
Australia
A new perspective: the dynamics of circulation
• Network effects suggest that the rate of trans-Tasman migration to Australia could be proportional to the number of New Zealanders already in Australia (at a rate of 6.1% per million per year)
• Return migration is about 8.25% per year• NZ natural increase plus net immigration from
the rest of the world is 1.57% per year
“Calibrating” the dynamics of 1891-2006 circulation
The prediction of this simple circulation model
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
model % NZ living in Aus
observed % NZ in Aus
• The future of the trans-Tasman Travel Agreement• As global mobility continues to increase, migration
patterns will become even more complex• Migration of those 65 plus from Australia,
predominantly return migration, is showing an upward trend
• Trans-Tasman migration of Maori • The impact of climate change
Other issues to contemplate....
Thank you
www.waikato.ac.nz/nidea
