Training module on vulnerability assessment (II)
51
-
Upload
sukaina-bharwani -
Category
Technology
-
view
561 -
download
4
description
Transcript of Training module on vulnerability assessment (II)
Vulnerability concepts
VA on rice in Bali
Exercise
Today’s story
VULNERABILITY CONCEPTS
Climate related disasters
Disaster = Exposure
≠ Vulnerability
Exposure
Impact
Sensitivity
Adaptative Capacity
Vulnerability to climate change
Outcome Vulnerability Contextual Vulnerability
hazard
Identify issues, context, purpose, system
Vulnerability Concepts 2
Exposure
Impact
Sensitivity
Adaptive Capacity
Vulnerability to climate change
hazard
Vulnerability Concept
Vulnerability Assessment
Maps
- -
Exposure
Sensitivity
Adaptive Capacity
VULNERABILITY AND PADDY PRODUCTION
Max Temp. Min Temp.
~2℃Climate change in Bali
(SRES A2 2046-65)
e.g. “Develop drought early warning system” in National
Action Plan 2007
e.g. “impact study of climate change to the agriculture” in ICCSR 2009 & National Action Plan 2007
Climate Change impacts in Indonesia:Based in 10 policy reports incl. RPJMN, ICCSR, NARASI
Adaptation measures: 1. Agriculture = 232. Water = 203. Coastal zone = 15 4. Forestry = 125. Health = 11
Climate Change Strategies ProjectSub-pro: Vulnerability assessment
KLH, 2010. Indonesia 2nd National Communication (UNFCCC).
22% of rice production in Bali/East Java
Short wet season
Important & vulnerable?
VULNERABILITY AND PADDY PRODUCTION
Historical rice production in Bali
Year
Paddy Harvested area (ha)
Production rate (quintal/ha) Production (ton)
2000 155,049 53.33 826,8382001 147,942 53.35 789,2322002 148,025 54.70 809,6882003 145,294 54.60 793,2602004 142,663 55.00 788,3612005 141,577 55.00 785,4812006 150,557 56.00 840,8912007 145,030 58.00 839,7752008 143,999 58.37 840,465
7%Not sure
Paddy area X productivity = ?
8%
Soil-climate suitability for paddy
Soil-climate Suitability by 20% in 20 years
= productivity?
Paddy soil-climate suitability 1990-1999 Paddy soil-climate suitability 2000-2009
20 %
“we never fail rice for 20 years”
“Not enough water, only 1 harvesting”
“20% became housing”
“always have enough
water”
“not enough water , so need
to rotate rice and crop ”
Conclusion: Rice production decline?
SENSITIVITY
Green is paddy
Paddy soil-climate suitability 1990-1999 Paddy soil-climate suitability 2000-2009
Suitability/Rain (Exposure⇧)
If there is Paddy
Production loss（ Vulnerability⇧）
ADAPTIVE CAPACITY
Agricultural training = 4kg
cooperative = 5kg
2 cycle paddy production = 9kg
Average low productive
farmer = 35kg
Agricultural training = 4kg
With Infari 13 seed = 6kg
Average low productive
farmer = 35kg
Totally ~ 53 kg/acre Totally ~ 45 kg/acre
Different production levels with different factors
12%
19%
15%
27%
2 cycle0.27
Lowland0.26
Organic&Inorga
nic0.26
Infari 130.19
In-organic
0.17
Cooperative0.15
Training0.12
Owner0.09
Potential weighting factors for adaptive capacity
Stronger
tons/ha In-&organic = 4.45Inorganic = 2.51(Increasing 77.3%)
In-&organic = 5.28Inorganic = 3.52(increasing 50%)
enhanced by 21% and 24%
Resource IPB BPTP/South Sulawesi Nanjing Agricultural UniYear 2008-2009 2004 1987-2005Place Bogor Buru Island (Maluku) Tai Lake Region, China
VULNERABILITY MAPS
Exposure
Vulnerability decrease as northern/eastern part get drier
Sensitivity
AC in livelihood zones
Adaptive Capacity
Vulnerability in
20 years
VULNERABILITY MATRIX
1. Select units affected2. Select disasters3. Rank them 4. Choose 3 units
Scaling the impact on exposure units3 = significant impact on the exposure unit2 = medium impact on the exposure unit1 = low impact on the exposure unit0 = no impact on the exposure unit
Exposure unit
ecosystem
activities
livelihood
Ecosystem service
Soil water balance
Water supply
Grazing and fodder
Livelihood
Smallholder farmers
Emerging farmers
Market traders
Terminologies
Farming land
Fishery
Water
Drought
Heavy rain
Floods
Potential disasters
Exposure units1. Ecosystem
services2. Livelihood
activates3. Livelihood
Thank you very much!Dr. Takeshi Takama
Risky without proper variety selection.
Risky without proper timing.
Abnormal climate (El Nino)
Delayed wet-season
Drier dry-season
NAYLOR, R.L., BATTISTI, D.S., VIMONT, D.J., FALCON, W.P. and BURKE, M.B., 2007. Assessing risks of climate variability and climate change for Indonesian rice agriculture
1 month delay in wet season decrease by: 6.5% for West/Central Java &11% for East Java and Bali.
11%In Bali
NAYLOR, R.L., BATTISTI, D.S., VIMONT, D.J., FALCON, W.P. and BURKE, M.B., 2007. Assessing risks of climate variability and climate change for Indonesian rice agriculture
20% drop in rainfall in April-June reduces planting area for East Java and Bali by only 2%.
2%In Bali
Delayed wet-season
Drier dry-season
Temporal sensitivity
Less
More
Need to focus
two.cycle lowland infari only.in-organic
coopera-tive
agritrain owner
Most pro-duc-tive
0.7142857142857
14
1 0.2285714285714
29
0.1142857142857
14
0.5142857142857
14
0.9142857142857
14
0.6285714285714
29
Least pro-duc-tive
0.0689655172413
793
0.2413793103448
28
0 0 0 0.4827586206896
55
0.3448275862068
97
5.00%15.00%25.00%35.00%45.00%55.00%65.00%75.00%85.00%95.00%
5 most and 5 least productive villages
Rice production in IndonesiaDec - Mar
May - JulySep - Nov
WetDry
Production x 2 in 30 years
Slow down in production
Population 300M in 2045
Food security
5K Kms & 18K islands
230M people
Agro, Touris
m, Fissile
Fast grow
Indonesia
Diverse, varia-
ble
Big emerg-
ing
Climate relate
Vulne-rable?
