Final Traffic Forecast Validation and Revenue Forecasts 20feb
TRAFFIC & REVENUE REPRESENTATIVE PROJECTS
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CONTACT US Yong Zhao, PhD, PE, AICP Traffic & Revenue Leader Phone: 512.203.1833 Email: [email protected] Jay Johns Director of Toll Technology Phone: 203.506.6861 Email: [email protected] REPRESENTATIVE PROJECTS TRAFFIC & REVENUE TRAFFIC & REVENUE PROVIDING RELIABLE FORECASTS TO MANAGE RISK Our T&R team produces robust, transparent, reliable, and bankable T&R forecasts. We are one of the few companies recognized by the bond market and the bond rating agencies of Standard and Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch for providing comprehensive toll feasibility and investment-grade traffic and revenue (T&R) analysis. Our experience providing advice to concessionaires and lenders provides the ability to anticipate needs of our clients and their stakeholders. Jacobs is and has been at the forefront in helping clients implement toll initiatives, including congestion pricing, managed lanes, and all-electronic tolling. Because of our investment-grade financing experience across different clients and markets around the world, we understand the “big picture” and can assemble the best team for our clients, identifying and managing both risks and opportunities. INDIANA TOLL ROAD Jacobs has supported IFM Investors’ subsidiary, the Indiana Toll Road Concession Company LLC (ITRCC), by providing traffic and revenue forecasting services in support of IFM’s successful $5.7 billion bid for the remaining 66 years of the concession in 2015. Jacobs has continued to support ITRCC and IFM through various projects, including updated forecasts for the sale of a 10% share to CalPERS and to support the $1 billion payment for a one-time toll increase of 35% for heavy vehicles in 2018. In 2019, Jacobs also updated and calibrated the travel demand model and toll diversion model for both the ticket system and the barrier system of the whole Indiana Toll Road corridor. The updated models help ITRCC to better understand the impact of the toll escalation on its revenue returns and to improve their operations. PUERTO RICO 22 / PUERTO RICO 5 TOLL ROAD Jacobs supported our client, Ullico, to complete its first toll road investment, an acquisition of a minority interest in a 42-year operating concession. The transaction reached financial close at the height of the COVID-19 crisis on March 31, 2020, with a major investment in Metropistas, an operating toll road concessionaire for PR22/PR5 in Puerto Rico. Jacobs’ independent, credible T&R analysis of the technical and operational merits of the toll roads in question provided confidence to Ullico’s decision to invest in Metropistas and informed their bid price. SH 288 MANAGED LANES Harris County, TX Jacobs, under a long-term traffic and revenue contract with TxDOT, assisted the Debt and Strategic Contracts Division with the planning, analysis, and procurement of the Design-Build, Finance, operation, and maintain concessionaire for the 10-mile managed toll lane project. Key elements of the project included travel demand modeling, sensitivity and risk analyses, and development of traffic and revenue forecasts. The equity case revenue forecast developed by Jacobs was within 5% of the winning bid. MID-BAY BRIDGE AUTHORITY T&R CONSULTING SERVICES Destin, FL Jacobs conducted various on-call services related to Traffic and Revenue and other toll planning services for the Mid-bay Bridge Authority (MBBA) over the span of a seven-year contract. Tasks include providing certification that the toll schedule is sufficient to cover all debt service requirements, forecasting gross toll revenue with accommodation of other revenue sources and operations and maintenance (O&M) costs and the planned capital program; producing the Annual Traffic and Toll Revenue Report which analyzes historical trends in traffic, toll revenue and compares the T&R projections to actual experience to verify the applicability of both the forecast and our methodology; and providing the MBBA with various traffic engineering studies, toll rate analysis, and other similar traffic and toll revenue analysis to allow the MBBA to appropriately prepare for the future. OHIO TURNPIKE T&R CONSULTING SERVICES Jacobs was retained by the Ohio Turnpike and Infrastructure Commission to conduct a traffic and revenue study for the Turnpike in conjunction with the successful 2013, 2017, 2018, and 2020 Toll Revenue Bond Sales. We analyzed historical traffic, vehicle miles of travel, and toll revenue data for the Turnpike to determine historical trends and correlated traffic with key economic indicators, and researched demographic data and other key factors that affected recent traffic patterns and that will affect future traffic behavior. In addition, we reviewed the historical expenditures for the Turnpike related to O&M as well as other revenues realized by the Turnpike and then estimated future O&M costs and other revenues. Ohio Turnpike Ohio Turnpike Indiana Toll Road Indiana Toll Road Puerto Rico 22 Toll Road Puerto Rico 22 Toll Road Sketch and Planning Level Studies Phase III T&R Study to support bonding and third-party investments Traffic Advisory and Due Diligence Reviews Phase II T&R Study to determine toll sensitivities and financing options T&R Estimates for Official Statements Phase I T&R Studies to consider toll viability prior to developing the overall project design and financing Mid-Bay Bridge Authority Mid-Bay Bridge Authority SH 288 Managed Lanes SH 288 Managed Lanes TRAFFIC & REVENUE SERVICES
Transcript of TRAFFIC & REVENUE REPRESENTATIVE PROJECTS
CONTACT US
Yong Zhao, PhD, PE, AICPTraffic & Revenue LeaderPhone: 512.203.1833 Email: [email protected]
Jay Johns Director of Toll TechnologyPhone: 203.506.6861Email: [email protected]
REPRESENTATIVE PROJECTS
TRAFFIC & REVENUE
TRAFFIC & REVENUE
PROVIDING RELIABLE FORECASTS TO MANAGE RISKOur T&R team produces robust, transparent, reliable, and bankable T&R forecasts. We are one of the few companies recognized by the bond market and the bond rating agencies of Standard and Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch for providing comprehensive toll feasibility and investment-grade traffic and revenue (T&R) analysis. Our experience providing advice to concessionaires and lenders provides the ability to anticipate needs of our clients and their stakeholders. Jacobs is and has been at the forefront in helping clients implement toll initiatives, including congestion pricing, managed lanes, and all-electronic tolling. Because of our investment-grade financing experience across different clients and markets around the world, we understand the “big picture” and can assemble the best team for our clients, identifying and managing both risks and opportunities.
INDIANA TOLL ROADJacobs has supported IFM Investors’ subsidiary, the Indiana Toll Road Concession Company LLC (ITRCC), by providing traffic and revenue forecasting services in support of IFM’s successful $5.7 billion bid for the remaining 66 years of the concession in 2015. Jacobs has continued to support ITRCC and IFM through various projects, including updated forecasts for the sale of a 10% share to CalPERS and to support the $1 billion payment for a one-time toll increase of 35% for heavy vehicles in 2018. In 2019, Jacobs also updated and calibrated the travel demand model and toll diversion model for both the ticket system and the barrier system of the whole Indiana Toll Road corridor. The updated models help ITRCC to better understand the impact of the toll escalation on its revenue returns and to improve their operations.
PUERTO RICO 22 / PUERTO RICO 5 TOLL ROADJacobs supported our client, Ullico, to complete its first toll road investment, an acquisition of a minority interest in a 42-year operating concession. The transaction reached financial close at the height of the COVID-19 crisis on March 31, 2020, with a major investment in Metropistas, an operating toll road concessionaire for PR22/PR5 in Puerto Rico. Jacobs’ independent, credible T&R analysis of the technical and operational merits of the toll roads in question provided confidence to Ullico’s decision to invest in Metropistas and informed their bid price.
SH 288 MANAGED LANESHarris County, TXJacobs, under a long-term traffic and revenue contract with TxDOT, assisted the Debt and Strategic Contracts Division with the planning, analysis, and procurement of the Design-Build, Finance, operation, and maintain concessionaire for the 10-mile managed toll lane project. Key elements of the project included travel demand modeling, sensitivity and risk analyses, and development of traffic and revenue forecasts. The equity case revenue forecast developed by Jacobs was within 5% of the winning bid.
MID-BAY BRIDGE AUTHORITY T&R CONSULTING SERVICESDestin, FLJacobs conducted various on-call services related to Traffic and Revenue and other toll planning services for the Mid-bay Bridge Authority (MBBA) over the span of a seven-year contract. Tasks include providing certification that the toll schedule is sufficient to cover all debt service requirements, forecasting gross toll revenue with accommodation of other revenue sources and operations and maintenance (O&M) costs and the planned capital program; producing the Annual Traffic and Toll Revenue Report which analyzes historical trends in traffic, toll revenue and compares the T&R projections to actual experience to verify the applicability of both the forecast and our methodology; and providing the MBBA with various traffic engineering studies, toll rate analysis, and other similar traffic and toll revenue analysis to allow the MBBA to appropriately prepare for the future.
OHIO TURNPIKE T&R CONSULTING SERVICESJacobs was retained by the Ohio Turnpike and Infrastructure Commission to conduct a traffic and revenue study for the Turnpike in conjunction with the successful 2013, 2017, 2018, and 2020 Toll Revenue Bond Sales. We analyzed historical traffic, vehicle miles of travel, and toll revenue data for the Turnpike to determine historical trends and correlated traffic with key economic indicators, and researched demographic data and other key factors that affected recent traffic patterns and that will affect future traffic behavior. In addition, we reviewed the historical expenditures for the Turnpike related to O&M as well as other revenues realized by the Turnpike and then estimated future O&M costs and other revenues.
Ohio TurnpikeOhio Turnpike
Indiana Toll RoadIndiana Toll Road
Puerto Rico 22 Toll RoadPuerto Rico 22 Toll RoadSketch and Planning Level Studies
Phase III T&R Study to support bonding and third-party investments
Traffic Advisory and Due Diligence Reviews
Phase II T&R Study to determine toll sensitivities and financing options
T&R Estimates for Official Statements
Phase I T&R Studies to consider toll viability prior to developing the overall project design and financing
Mid-Bay Bridge AuthorityMid-Bay Bridge Authority
SH 288 Managed LanesSH 288 Managed Lanes
TRAFFIC & REVENUE SERVICES
