Trading With Intermarket Analysis - Society of Technical ... John J Murphy Revised.pdf · John...
Transcript of Trading With Intermarket Analysis - Society of Technical ... John J Murphy Revised.pdf · John...
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Trading With Intermarket
AnalysisJohn Murphy
Stockcharts.com
1
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Slide 1
1 John Murphy, 24/09/2012
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Current Intermarket Relationships
• Ratio Analysis Show Stocks Outperforming Bonds
• Stocks Outperform Commodities• U.S. Stocks are Global Leaders• Implications of Stronger Dollar
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S&P 500 Started New Secular Uptrend During 2013
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Stock/Bond Ratio Broke Major Resistance Line During 2013
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Stock/Commodity Ratio Also Turned up During 2013
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Firmer Dollar Supports Rising Dow/Gold Ratio
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2011 Upturn in Rates Contributed to Gold Peak: 9/10
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International Implications of a Rising Dollar
• Favors U.S. over Foreign Stocks• EAFE and EEM iShares Are
Testing Major Resistance• Euro weakness Hurts stock ETFs
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Rising Dollar Favors U.S. Over Foreign Stocks
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EAFE iShares Are Testing 2007 Peak
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Emerging Markets iShares Test 2007/2011 Resistance Line
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German DAX OutpacesGermany iShares: 9/5
s
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Plunging Euro Hurts Performance of Germany iShares
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Interest Rate Implications
• Falling German Bond Yields Have Contributed to Lower U.S. Rates
• Two-Year U.S. Yield Hits 3-year High• Using an ETF to Hedge Negative
Effect of Falling Yen
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Falling German and U.S. Bond Yields Are Linked: 9/12
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Rising U.S. Short-Term Rates Support Dollar Rise: 9/10
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Falling Commodities Hurt Canadian and Aussie Dollars: 9/12
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The Wisdom Tree ETF Hedges Out the Negative Effect of a Falling Yen
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ETFs Revolutionize Intermarket Trading
2013
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WHAT INTERMARKET ANALYSIS DOES
Bridges Gap Between Fundamental, Economic, and Technical AnalysisCombines All Global Markets into a Unified and Coherent WholeAdds a New Dimension to Traditional Technical Analysis