Trade Shock Transmission: A Study of Selected African ... · Jonathan E. Ogbuabor PhD Department of...

1

Trade Shock Transmission A Study of Selected African Economies the BRIC

and the Rest of the Global Economy

Ekeocha Patterson C PhD

Central Bank of Nigeria Research Department

pekeocha04fulbrightmailorg pcekeochacbngovng

+2348035487968

amp

Jonathan E Ogbuabor PhD

Department of Economics University of Nigeria Nsukka Nigeria

jonathanogbuaborunnedung

+2348035077722 Abstract

This study investigated trade shock transmission between Africa the BRIC and the rest of the global

economy with a view to understanding the likely disposition of African economies towards trade shocks The

study extended the network approach of Diebold and Yilmaz (2009) by constructing generalized trade

linkage measures at various degrees of aggregation The results indicate that the trade linkage between

Africa and the rest of the global economy is quite substantial with the total trade linkage index having an

average value of 87 We find also that China USA UK Japan EU and Canada dominate Africarsquos trade

and therefore have the potential to spread trade shocks to it The results further indicate that apart from the

BRIC other regional trading blocs such as Asia the Americas and Europe play influential roles in Africarsquos

trade Overall the findings show that African economies are predominantly net receivers of trade shocks

originating from the aforementioned dominant sources The study therefore concludes that the patterns of

cross-country trade shock spillovers obtained in this study would likely influence Africarsquos move from

globalization to regional integration or multi-polarity in the years to come

Keywords Globalization Trade Shock Transmission Global VAR Africa the Global Economy

JEL Classification F42 F43 C32 N77 N70

Submitted to the 22nd

Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis (GTAP) on the Theme

ldquoChallenges to Global Social and Economic Growthrdquo June 19-21 2019 Warsaw Poland

2

Introduction

Intra-Africalsquos trade performance (import and export) is very infinitesimal compared to the rest of

the world (African Trade Statistics Yearbook 2017) The same trend reflects the characteristics of

African countries intra and extra - African trade For instance Nigerialsquos Intra-Africa import trade is

far below its trade with the rest of the world from 2010 ndash 2016 While Nigerialsquos import from the

rest of the world averaged US$4264277 million or 948 per cent during the same period it was

US$229385 million or 52 per cent within Africa Similarly Nigerialsquos intra-African export trade

averaged US$1046565 million or 120 per cent of total export during 2010 to 2016 while the

export to the rest of the world averaged US$8124003 or 880 per cent of total export The low

intra-Africa trade may have necessitated the move for Africalsquos trade integration to fast-track its

development Little wonder Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) have become important elements in

economic integration amongst most countries of the world It provides avenues for nations to enter

into bilateral or regional trade agreements to eliminate tariffs and non-tariff barriers to trade among

member countries African is currently establishing the African Continental Free Trade Area

(AfCFTA) treaty to create a single continental market for goods and services in member nations of

the African Union (AU) with free movement of business persons and investments using a single

currency

The AfCFTA is gathering momentum because globalization remains a contentious subject due to

the mixed benefits and opportunities it presents to participating countries In particular it makes

countries vulnerable to external shocks Granted that shocks often occur and granted further that

African countries largely have significant trade linkage with the rest of the world it is important to

model the sources of foreign influence on domestic economies particularly the BRIC (Brazil

Russia India and China) economies whose trade linkage with Africa is enormous In fact not only

does Africa trade significantly with the BRIC countries the latter also represent a model of

economic development exemplified by strong economic growth and an enormous capacity to

compete in a globalized world Besides trade linkage has been adjudged an important feature of

global economic integration between countries However following literature there is no common

view on whether intense global trade linkages would lead to more or less business cycle

harmonization Again World Banklsquos Global Economic Prospects report posits that growth in

emerging market and developing economies is expected to remain flat in 2019 Growth in many

other economies is also anticipated to decelerate with risks growing that growth could be even

3

weaker than anticipated This phenomenon may invariably worsen the growth prospects of

developing economies in the event of trade shocks

Broadly this study therefore examines trade shock propagation between Africa the BRIC

economies and the rest of the global economy Specifically the study seeks to (i) measure the

degree of trade linkage between Africa the BRIC and the rest of the global economy (ii) determine

the BRIC countries and other countries in the rest of the world that are dominating Africalsquos trade

and therefore have the potential to spread trade shocks to Africa and thus minimize its growth (iii)

determine the African economies that are most susceptible to trade shocks originating from the

BRIC countries and the rest of the global economy (iv) determine other trade blocs outside the

BRIC that exert dominant influence on Africa and therefore have the prospects of spreading trade

shocks to it

To achieve the above objectives the paper employs the normalized generalized forecast error

variance decompositions (NGFEVDs) distilled from an underlying global vector autoregressive

model (Global VAR) to build measures of trade linkage and shocks transmission between Africa

the BRICS countries and the rest of the global economy over the period 1970Q1 ndash 2017Q4 The

underlying model is estimated using the total trade statistics of the countries The time series

properties of the data are examined using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron

unit root tests as well as the Johansen cointegration test in order to determine the form of the

model to be estimated If the variables are overwhelmingly stationary at levels then a basic VAR

would be appropriate However if the variables are nonstationary then a VAR in first differences

becomes tenable in the absence of equilibrium relationship otherwise a vector error correction

model (VECM) would be estimated A key innovation in this study would be the use of the

NGFEVDs to build various measures of trade linkages between Africa and the rest of the global

economy at different levels of aggregation The generalized nature of the FEVDs means that they

would be invariant to the reordering of the variables in the system The choice of the global VAR

framework is mainly due to its ability to explicitly model the source of foreign influences on

domestic economies in Africa and the contributions of these domestic economies to the rest of the

world in a transparent and coherent manner It allows for the impact of shocks to be consistently

quantified aggregated and assessed so that interactions between countriesregions can be analyzed

Simply put our proposed framework measures both the direction and the strength of linkages

4

among entities in the system while identifying systemically important or vulnerable entities within

the system Several studies in the literature have exploited this framework in the study of

macroeconomic linkages with great success Examples include Pesaran Schuermann and Weiner

(2004) Dees di Mauro Pesaran and Smith (2007) Dees Holly Pesaran and Smith (2007) and

more recently Greenwood-Nimmo Nguyen and Shin (2015) We are adopting same framework

using some selected African economies and since the data for the study are quarterly the measures

of trade linkages would be computed over a 24-period horizon so that the long-run results are

better captured

The rationale for assessing the impact of trade between Africa the BRIC and the rest of the world is

to bring to the fore the potential trade shock impact between Africa and other trade blocks with

which it has significant trade linkages even as it makes concerted efforts towards signing of the

African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) through a treaty by all the countries concerned

Nigeria which is Africalsquos largest economy by size of GDP is currently understudying the tenets of

AfCFTA treaty preparatory to signing it The AfCFTA is to create a single continental market for

goods and services in member nations of the African Union (AU) with free movement of business

persons and investments using a single currency The AfCFTA is intended to be the external cordon

protecting the African countrieslsquo domestic markets Thus while AU member states are signing the

treaty it is important to be aware of the potential trade shocks that may emanate from the

significant trade linkages between Africa and the rest of the world

The rest of the paper is organized as follows Section 2 undertakes a brief review of relevant

literature Section 3 presents the data and methodology detailing some preliminary data analysis

while Section 4 discusses the empirical results Section 5 concludes the study and provides some

policy implications that the patterns of cross-country trade shock spillovers obtained in this study

would likely influence Africalsquos move from globalization to regional integration or multi-polarity in

the years to come

2 Brief Review of Literature

The impact of trade shocks in large advanced countries on emerging market economies mdash dubbed

spillovers mdash is hotly debated in global and national policy circles Kose and Reizman (1999)

examined the role of external shocks in explaining macroeconomic fluctuations in African

5

countries They constructed a quantitative stochastic dynamic multi-sector equilibrium model of a

small open economy calibrated to represent a typical African economy In their framework external

shocks consist of trade shocks modeled as fluctuations in the prices of exported primary

commodities imported capital goods and intermediate inputs and a financial shock modeled as

fluctuations in the world real interest rate Results from their analysis indicated that while trade

shocks accounted for roughly 45 percent of economic fluctuations in aggregate output financial

shocks play only a minor role They also found that adverse trade shocks induce prolonged

recessions

Ccedilakir and Kabundi (2011) examined the trade linkages between South Africa and the BRIC (Brazil

Russia India and China) countries They applied the global vector autoregressive model (global

VAR) to investigate the degree of trade linkages and shock transmission between South Africa and

the BRIC countries over the period 1995Q1-2009Q4 The model contained 32 countries and had

two different estimations the first one consists of 24 countries and one region with the 8 countries

in the euro area treated as a single economy and the second estimation contains 20 countries and

two regions with the BRIC and the euro area countries respectively treated as a single economy

The results suggest that trade linkages exist between our focus economies however the magnitude

differs between countries Shocks from each BRIC country are shown to have considerable impact

on South African real imports and output

Greenwood-Nimmo et al (2015) developed a technique to evaluate macroeconomic connectedness

among entities in sophisticated multi-country and global macroeconomic models Their

methodology is highly adaptable and may be applied to any model with an approximate VAR

representation They applied their technique to a global vector autoregressive model containing 169

macroeconomic and financial variables for 25 countries They derived vivid representations of the

connectedness of the system and found that the US the Eurozone and the crude oil market exert a

dominant influence over conditions in the global macroeconomy and that China and Brazil are also

globally significant economies Recursive analysis over the period of the global financial crisis

shows that shocks to global equity markets are rapidly and forcefully transmitted to real trade flows

and real GDP

Pesaran et al (2004) posit that financial institutions are ultimately exposed to macroeconomic

fluctuations in the global economy and thus they built a compact global model capable of

6

generating forecasts for a core set of macroeconomic factors (or variables) across a number of

countries Their model explicitly allows for the interdependencies that exist between national and

international factors Individual region-specific vector error-correcting models were estimated in

which the domestic variables were related to corresponding foreign variables constructed

exclusively to match the international trade pattern of the country under consideration The

individual country models were then linked in a consistent and cohesive manner to generate

forecasts for all of the variables in the world economy simultaneously Their global model was

estimated for 25 countries grouped into 11 regions using quarterly data over 1979Q1ndash1999Q1 The

degree of regional interdependencies was investigated via generalized impulse responses where the

effects of shocks to a given variable in a given country on the rest of the world were provided The

model was then used to investigate the effects of various global risk scenarios on a banklsquos loan

portfolio

Dees et al (2007) presented a quarterly global model combining individual country vector error-

correcting models in which the domestic variables were related to the country-specific foreign

variables Their global VAR (GVAR) model was estimated for 26 countries the Euro area being

treated as a single economy over the period 1979ndash2003 They provided a theoretical framework

where the GVAR was derived as an approximation to a global unobserved common factor model

Using the average pair-wise cross-section error correlations their GVAR approach was shown to be

quite effective in dealing with the common factor interdependencies and international co-

movements of business cycles They developed a sieve bootstrap procedure for simulation of the

GVAR as a whole which is then used in testing the structural stability of the parameters and for

establishing bootstrap confidence bounds for the impulse responses Finally in addition to

generalized impulse responses their paper considered the use of the GVAR for structurallsquo impulse

response analysis with focus on external shocks for the Euro area economy particularly in response

to shocks to the US

In another study Dees et al (2007) focused on testing the long run macroeconomic relations for

interest rates equity prices and exchange rates suggested by arbitrage in financial and

goods markets They used the global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model to test

for long run restrictions in each countryregion conditioning on the rest of the

world They employed Bootstrapping to compute both the empirical distribution of

7

the impulse responses and the log-likelihood ratio statistic for over-identifying

restrictions Their paper also examined the speed with which adjustments to the

long run relations would take place via the persistence profiles They found strong evidence

in favour of the uncovered interest parity (UIP) and to a lesser extent the Fisher equation across a

number of countries but their results for the purchasing power parity (PPP) were much weaker

Also the transmission of shocks and subsequent adjustments in financial markets were much faster

than those in goods markets

Ogbuabor et al (2016) examined the real and financial connectedness of selected African

economies with the global economy using a network approach They found that the connectedness

of African economies with the global economy is quite sizable with the global financial crisis

increasing the connectedness measures above their pre-crisis levels Their results show that US

EU and Canada dominate Africalsquos equity markets while China India and Japan dominate Africalsquos

real activities Their results suggest that African economies are predominantly small open

economies deeply interconnected but systemically unimportant and vulnerable to headwinds

emanating from the dominant economies in the overall global economy

Lubik and Teo (2003) found that world interest rate shocks are the main driving forces of business

cycles in small open economies while terms of trade shocks are not Thus they challenged the

existing results on the contribution of terms of trade and world interest rate shocks to output

fluctuations in small open economies which had been found to range from less than 10 per cent to

almost 90 per cent They argue that an identification problems lies at the heart of existing vastly

different results They overcame this by estimating a DSGE model using a structural Bayesian

estimation approach applying their methodology to five developed and developing economies The

approach enabled them to efficiently exploit cross-equation restrictions implied by the structural

model

Huidrom et al (2017) provide empirical estimates of the cross border spillovers from Seven largest

emerging market economies (China India Brazil Russia Mexico Indonesia and Turkey) using a

Bayesian vector autoregression model Their results indicate that first spillovers from EM7 are

sizeable a 1 percentage point increase in EM7 growth is associated with a 09 percentage point

increase in growth in other emerging and frontier markets and a 06 percentage point increase in

world growth at the end of three years Second sizeable as they are spillovers from EM7 are still

8

smaller than those from G7 countries (Group of Seven of advanced economies) Specifically

growth in other emerging and frontier markets and the global economy would increase by one-half

to three times more due to a similarly sized increase in G7 growth Third among the EM7

spillovers from China are the largest and permeate globally Their study was based on the

phenomenon that their growth could have significant cross-border spillovers based on their size and

integration The seven largest emerging market economies - China India Brazil Russia Mexico

Indonesia and Turkey - was adjudged to constitute more than one-quarter of global output and

more than half of global output growth during 2010ndash15

This study contributes to this emerging literature in several ways First it quantifies the degree of

trade linkage between Africa the BRIC and the rest of the global economy Two apart from

exposing the patterns of trade shock spillovers between Africa and the rest of the world using total

trade statistics this study also disaggregates the trade shock spillovers using exports and imports

statistics This provides deeper insights into the trade linkages between Africa and the rest of the

world Besides the study extended the empirical method by constructing trade linkage measures in

a coherent and transparent manner for ease of replication

3 Data and Methodology

The data for this study consists of the log of exports imports and total trade for the period 1990Q1-

2016Q4 The choice of this period is based on data availability for some of the African economies

and for Russia whose trade data in the World Development Indicators started in 1990 The BRICS

economies in this study are Brazil Russia India China and South Africa The selected African

economies included in this study are DR Congo Egypt Ghana Morocco Nigeria Tanzania and

Tunisia while the rest of the global economy is accounted for by Australia Canada the Eurozone

(EU) Indonesia Japan Malaysia United States of America (USA) and United Kingdom (UK)

These economies account for the larger chunk of Africalsquos trade while the selected African

economies together with South Africa account substantially for Africalsquos GDP The entire data were

taken from the World Development Indicators (WDI) based on the following indicator names

exports of goods and services (constant 2010 US$) as measure for exports imports of goods and

services (constant 2010 US$) as measure for imports and exports plus imports as measure for total

trade (or simply trade)

9

To ensure that there are enough observations for the analysis the data were converted from annual

to quarterly using Eviewlsquos quadratic match average option This is in line with the methodology

used in compiling the Global VAR database used by Greenwood-Nimmo Nguyen and Shin (2015)

the connectedness of the global economy Other studies that have successfully used the same

methodology are Ogbuabor Eigbiremolen Aneke and Manasseh (2018) and Ogbuabor Orji

Aneke and Erdene-Urnukh (2016) Also to reduce noise and ensure uniform scaling the entire data

were converted into indices (2010Y = 100) and logged prior to estimation Appendix 1 summarizes

the descriptive statistics of the data based on the log transformation of the data Focusing on Panel 1

which reports for total trade we find that among the African economies Ghana DR Congo and

Tanzania are the most volatile as seen from their standard deviations while China India and Russia

are the most volatile among the BRICS economies Among all the countries in the sample Japan

Canada and UK are the least volatile and also recorded the highest mean values The maximum and

minimum values do not suggest the presence of outliers in the data The time series plots of the data

for all the economies in the sample are presented in Appendix 2 based on the log transformation of

the data A close examination of the plots show close comovement among all the countries

indicating that the series track themselves closely The implication of this is that the data may be

cointegrated which will in turn affect the form of the underlying model to be estimated in this

study Thus we shall subject the series to cointegration test as part of the empirical procedures in

this study

31 The Choice of Diebold and Yilmaz (2009) Network Framework

A number of methodologies have been employed in the study of macroeconomic linkages among

entities in the global economy particularly in the study of shock propagation among countries For

instance cross-country correlations-based measures have been used to characterize macroeconomic

linkages among countries (Kehoe et al 1995 Kose et al 2003 Bollerslev 1990 Engle et al

1990 Mantegna 1999 Tumminello et al 2005 Taylor 2007 Gray amp Malone 2008 Engle 2009

Engle amp Kelly 2012) The pitfalls of this approach are twofold namely correlation is simply a

pairwise measure of association and it is non-directional This means that correlation-based

approach cannot handle such questions as ―what is the degree of trade linkage between Africa the

BRICS and the rest of the global economy Unlike the correlation-based measures of

macroeconomic linkage the network approach of Diebold and Yilmaz (2009) is non-pairwise yet

10

directional Granger Causality measures have also been used characterize networks so that the

macroeconomic linkages among entities in the global economy can be described and understood

(Caraiani 2013 Hiemstra amp Jones 1994 Dahlhans amp Eichler 2003 Shojaie amp Michailidis 2010

Billio et al 2012) The main weakness of the Granger Causality approach is that it captures only

pairwise relations and may not be useful in answering important questions like ―what is the degree

of trade linkage between Africa the BRICS and the rest of the global economy1

Furthermore as noted by Diebold and Yilmaz (2016) these alternative methodologies generally

dwell exclusively on testing rather than measurement and estimation of macroeconomic linkages

which are the key issues in this paper This study therefore follows the network approach of

Diebold and Yilmaz (2009) based on its ability to transparently use the size and direction of shocks

to build both directional and non-directional trade linkage measures over a given forecast horizon

According to Ogbuabor et al (2016) studies using this approach have four common features

namely (i) they are generally based on connectedness measures distilled from forecast error

variance decompositions (FEVDs) of an approximating vector autoregressive (VAR) model (ii)

they measure the direction and strength of linkages among entities in the system (iii) they can

identify systemically important entities in the system and (iv) they can study the dynamic nature of

shock propagation among entities in the system In what follows the underlying VAR model for

this study and the construction of the generalized trade linkages measures (GTLMs) are presented

to guide the ensuing analysis

32 Model Specification The Vector Autoregression (VAR) Model

The broad objective of this study is to examine the propagation of trade shock between Africa the

BRICS economies and the rest of the global economy Let 119937120061 be the log of total trade for all the

countries selected for this study so that 119937119947120061 stands for the logged total trade of the j-th country in the

system with 119947 = 120783 120784 hellip 119925 and 119925 is the number of countries selected for the study (which is 20)

Following Diebold and Yilmaz (2009) the trade linkage measures for this study are based on the

normalized generalized forecast error variance decompositions (NGFEVDs) of an underlying 119953-th

1 Other techniques have also been used in the literature for the study of macroeconomic linkages Ogbuabor et al

(2018) provides an overview of such alternative methodologies such as the dynamic latent factor models of Kose et al (2008) and Canova et al (2007) the CoVaR approach of Adrian and Brunnermeier (2011) and the marginal expected shortfall (MES) approach of Acharya et al (2017) and Brownlees and Engle (2012)

11

order VAR model for the 119925 119961 120783 vector of endogenous variables 119937120061 The VAR(119953) model is specified

as follows

119937120061 = 120630119963 + 120509120051119937120061minus120051120057120051=120783 + 120634120061 (1)

where 120630 is 119925119961120783 vector of intercepts 120509120051 is 119925 119961 119925 coefficient matrix 120057 is the lag order and the

residuals 120634120050120061 ~ 119946119946119941 120782 120634119946119946 so that 120634120061 ~ 120782 120634 where 120634 is positive definite covariance matrix

The optimal VAR lag order selected by Schwarz Information Criterion (SIC) for this study is one

(see Appendix 5) Using the Woldlsquos Representation Theorem the model in equation (1) is

expressed as an infinite order vector moving average representation given by

119937120061 = 120634119957 + 120495120783120518119853minus120783 + 120495120784120518119853minus120784 + hellip = 120495120051120634120061minus120051infin120051=120782 (2)

where 120495120782 = 119920119925 120495120051 = 120509120051 120051 = 120783 120784 hellip and 119920119925 stands for an 119925 times 119925 identity matrix in which all

the principal diagonal elements are ones and all other elements are zeros

The network approach of Diebold and Yilmaz (2009) requires that after estimating the underlying

VAR model the forecast error variance decompositions (FEVDs) are then generated and used to

build linkage measures In this study the interest is in the shocks to the disturbances 120634119947120061 in the

country-specific equations Hence following Pesaran and Shin (1998) Diebold and Yilmaz (2016)

and Greenwood-Nimmo et al (2015) this study adopts the order-invariant generalized forecast error

variance decompositions (GFEVDs) defined as

119918119917119916119933119915 119937119946120061 120634119947120061 119919 = 119941119946119947119944119919

= 120648120634119947119947minus120783 119942119946

prime120495119945120506120634119942119947 sup2119919minus120783119945=120782

119942119946prime120495119945120506120634120495119945

prime 119942119946 119919minus120783119945=120782

(3)

where 119894 119895 = 1 hellip 119873 119867 = 1 2 hellip is the forecast horizon 119890119894 119890119895 is 119873 119909 1 selection vector whose i-th

element (j-th element) is unity with zeros elsewhere Θℎ is the coefficient matrix multiplying the h-

lagged shock vector in the infinite moving-average representation of the non-orthogonalized VAR

120634 is the covariance matrix of the shock vector in the non-orthogonalized VAR and 120648120634119947119947 is the j-th

diagonal element of 120634 (ie the standard deviation of 120576119895 ) We adopted a maximum forecast horizon

of 16 quarters in order to ensure that the long-run results are better captured It must be stressed that

the choice of GFEVDs for this study rather than the orthogonalized forecast error variance

decompositions (OFEVDs) of Diebold and Yilmaz (2009) is particularly based on the fact that the

12

OFEVDs depend on the reordering of the variables in the system such that once the order of

variables in the VAR is reshuffled a different outcome results

Diebold and Yilmaz (2014) explain that shocks are rarely orthogonal in the GFEVD environment

so that sums of forecast error variance contributions are not necessarily unity that is row sums of

the generalized variance decomposition matrix 119863119892119867 are not necessarily unity This renders the

interpretation of the GFEVDs complicated Thus to restore a percentage interpretation of the

GFEVDs this study follows Diebold and Yilmaz (2014) to define the normalized GFEVDs

(NGFEVDs) given by2

119863 119892 = 119889 119894119895119892 where 119889 119894119895

119892=

119889119894119895119892

119889119894119895119892119873

119895=1

119889119894119895119892

= 119918119917119916119933119915 119937119946120061 120634119947120061 119919 (4)

By construction 119889 119894119895119892119873

119895=1 = 1 and 119889 119894119895119892119873

119894 119895=1 = 119873 so that the total sum of the generalized forecast

error variance share of each variable is normalized to 100

33 Construction of the Generalized Trade Linkage Measures (GTLMs)

The various trade linkage measures that are relevant for the ensuing analysis are defined in this sub-

section The intuition behind this framework is quite simple Variance decomposition permits the

splitting of the forecast error variances of each variable in the VAR system into parts attributable to

the various system shocks By so doing it becomes easy to answer the question What fraction of

the h-step-ahead error variance in forecasting 119937120783119957 is due to shocks to 119937120783119957 Shocks to 119937120784119957 Similarly

what fraction of the h-step-ahead error variance in forecasting 119937120784119957 is due to shocks to 119937120783119957 Shocks

to 119937120784119957 And in general what fraction of the h-step-ahead error variance in forecasting 119937119947119957 is due to

shocks to 119937119946119957 119946 = 120783 120784 hellip 119925 Thus the approach marries VAR variance decomposition theory and

network topology theory by recognizing that variance decompositions of VARs form networks and

also characterizing linkages in those variance decomposition networks This in turn characterizes

trade linkages of the variables in our VAR system This is the intuition behind this framework

which we now exploit in the ensuing analysis Diebold and Yilmaz (2015) authoritatively document

this framework and its relation to network theory

2 In what follows and without loss of generality the superscript 119867 is dropped whenever it is not needed for clarity so

that 119863119892119867 and 119889119894119895119892119867

are simply written as 119863119892 and 119889119894119895119892

respectively

13

Table 1 Trade Linkage Schematic

Variables 119937120783 119937120784 ⋯ 119937119925 From Others

119937120783

⋯ 1198891119895

119873

119895=1 119895 ne 1

119937120784

⋯ 1198892119895

119873

119895=1 119895 ne 2

⋮ ⋮ ⋮ ⋱

⋮ ⋮

119937119925

⋯ 119889119873119895

119873

119895=1 119895 ne 119873

To Others

1198891198941

119873

119894=1

119894 ne 1

1198891198942

119873

119894=1

119894 ne 2

⋯ 119889119894119873

119873

119894=1

119894 ne N

1

119873 119889119894119895

119873

119894 119895=1 119894 ne 119895

Source Adapted from Diebold and Yilmaz (2014) and Ogbuabor et al (2016) Note For

simplicity each time series variable in this table 119937119947119957 is written as 119937119947 119947 = 120783 120784 hellip 119925

To construct the GTLMs for this study let us denote the H-step ahead NGFEVDs for the 119925 119961 120783

vector of endogenous variables 119937120061 obtained from equation (4) by 119941119946119947 By cross-tabulating 119941119946119947 the

trade linkage table shown in Table 1 is formed The sum of each row in Table 1 is normalized to

100 in line with equation (4) This table is now used to define the various GTLMs and their

relationships The diagonal entries in Table 1 measure own variance shares (or own-effect) while

the off-diagonal entries measure variance shares arising from shocks to other variables in the

system and are therefore referred to as pairwise directional linkage Accordingly the own-effect

(119919119947) also known as the heatwave is defined as

119919119947 = 119941119947119947 (5)

The total cross-variable variance share (119917119947) captures the spillovers from all other variables to 119937119947120061 as

fractions of the H-step-ahead error variance in the forecasts of 119937119947120061 resulting from 119937119946120061 where

119946 = 120783 120784 hellip 119925 and 119946 ne 119947 This measures the total directional linkage from other variables

(countries) in the system (ie the from-effect) to Zj120009 This means that the from-effect can be used to

capture the role each individual economy in the system plays in a given African economy and it is

14

computed in this study by aggregating the spillovers from all the economies in the system to a

given African economy across all horizons Hence the economy contributing the highest of such

aggregate spillover is deemed to play a dominant role in the particular African economy This study

therefore defines 119917119947 as

119917119947 = 119941119947119946119925119946=120783119946ne119947 (6)

By construction 119919119947 + 119917119947 = 120783 forall 119947

This study also defines the total spillover or total contributions of 119937119947120061 to all other variables (denoted

by 119931119947) as

119931119947 = 119941119946119947119925119946=120783119946ne119947 (7)

By construction 119931119947 measures the total directional linkage from 119937119947120061 to other variables in the system

(ie the to-effect) In other words the to-effect measures the directional linkage from a given

economy (for instance a given African economy) to other economies in the system thereby

showing the impact or influence of that particular African economy on other economies in the VAR

system The net directional linkage (or simply net-effect) of 119937119947120061 is therefore defined as

119925119947 = 119931119947 minus 119917119947 (8)

Since there are N economies in the VAR system it also follows that there are 2N total directional

trade linkages N capturing the total shocks transmitted to others (ie spillover to) and N capturing

the total shocks received from others (ie spillover from) These measures are aptly reflect the

bilateral trade patterns between the African economies and other economies in the system since

they mirror the total exports and total imports for each of the N economies in the system and will

therefore facilitate deeper understanding of the inter-linkages among the African economies We

shall utilize the net-effects to establish the net transmittersreceivers of shocks in the system over

time By construction 119925119947119925119947=120783 = 120782

The most aggregative (non-directional) trade linkage measure in this study which will be used to

evaluate the degree of trade linkage Africa the BRICS and the rest of the global economy is known

as the total trade linkage index (119931119931119923119920) or total-effects and it is defined as

119931119931119923119920 = 120783

119925 119917119947

119925119947=120783 =

120783

119925 119931119947

119925119947=120783 (9)

15

This measure captures the grand total of the off-diagonal elements in Table 1 that is the sum of the

―From Others column or ―To Others row There is only one total trade linkage measure which is

analogous to total global imports or total global exports since the two are identical

An important objective of this study is to determine which of the countries among the BRICS and

in the rest of the global economy exert the most dominant trade influence on African economies

and therefore have the potential to spread trade shocks to Africa To achieve this objective this

study defines two indices dependence and influence indices These indices are necessary to

determine the dependence of the j-th variable (or j-th economy) on external shocks and the

influence of the j-th variable (or j-th economy) on the system as a whole The dependence index is

defined as

119926119947119919 =

119917119947

119919119947+ 119917119947 forall 119947 = 120783 120784 hellip 119925 (10)

where 120782 le 119926119947119919 le 120783 This index expresses the relative importance of external shocks for the j-th

economy in the VAR system such that if 119926119947119919 rarr 120783 then conditions in the j-th economy is open

deeply interlinked and sensitive to external conditions but if 119926119947119919 rarr 120782 then the j-th economy is less

sensitive to external shocks

Similarly the influence index is expressed as

119920119947119919 =

119925119947

119931119947+119917119947 forall 119947 = 120783 120784 hellip 119925 (11)

where minus120783 le 119920119947119919 le 120783 For a given horizon H the j-th economy is a net receiver of trade shocks if

minus120783 le 119920119947119919 lt 0 that is if the index has a negative value a net transmitter of trade shocks if 120782 lt

119920119947119919 le 120783 that is if the index takes a positive value and neither a net receiver or transmitter of trade

shocks if IjH = 0 Thus the influence index measures the extent to which the j-th economy in the

system influences or is influenced by external shocks Overall the coordinate pair (119926119947119919 119920119947

119919) in the

dependence-influence space provides a good representation of the j-th economylsquos role in global real

activities A priori expectation is that African economies which are relatively small open

economies would be located close to the point (1-1) while overwhelmingly open but highly

influential and dominant economies like the USA China and Japan would be located close to the

point (11)

4 Results and Discussions

16

We started this empirical analysis by examining the time series properties of the data The Phillips-

Perron unit root tests showed that all the series are I(1) for all the countries (Please see Appendix 3

which reports for total trade of all the countries To conserve space we do not report separately for

exports and imports since the patterns are similar that is all the series are I(1)) However the test

for long-run or equilibrium relationship using the Johansen System Cointegration test showed that

both the Trace and Maximum Eigenvalue statistics returned full rank indicating that the data are

not cointegrated (Please see Appendix 4 which reports the Trace test in Panel 1 and the Max-

Eigenvalue test in Panel 2) Therefore a VAR in first differences was estimated rather than a vector

error correction model (VECM) Thereafter the GTLMs were computed for all forecasting

horizons 119867 = 12 hellip 16 The average values of the GTLMs over all the horizons are reported

since Diebold and Yilmaz (2016) had shown that the measures follow similar patterns regardless of

the choice of window lengths and forecast horizons As earlier stated we set the maximum forecast

horizon at 16 quarters in order to capture the long-run results better As a robustness check we also

estimated the underlying model and computed the GTLMs separately for exports and imports As

shall soon see the results follow the same qualitative pattern

41 Measuring the degree of trade linkage between Africa the BRICS and the rest of the

global economy

The first specific objective of this study is to measure the degree of trade linkage between African

economies the BRICS and the rest of the global economy In addition we examine here how this

index changed from the short-run (ie from horizon 1) through the long-run (ie until horizon 16)

To achieve this objective we estimated the underlying VAR model of equation (1) and used the

NGFEVDs distilled from this estimation based on equation (4) to compute the Total Trade Linkage

Index (TTLI) based on equation (9) We report the plots of this index in Figure 1 based on the total

trade data while the plots based on the exports and imports data are reported in Appendix 5 This

figure shows how the most aggregated generalized trade linkage measure in this study evolved from

the short-run through the long-run We find that the index rose smoothly from 84 at horizons 1

and 2 to 90 at horizons 15 and 16 In other words the total trade linkage index is higher in the

long-run than in the short-run indicating African economies become more interlinked in the long-

run as the business cycles become more synchronized This finding is consistent with the trend of

global macroeconomic interlinkage reported by Greenwood-Nimmo et al (2015) Diebold and

Yilmaz (2016) and Ogbuabor et al (2018) that the ongoing globalization process is engendering

17

more significant comovement in industrial production fluctuations Furthermore we find that the

TTLI recorded an average value of 87 which shows that the trade linkage between Africa the

BRICS and the rest of the global economy is quite substantial

As shown in Appendix 5 the patterns in this index remained qualitatively unchanged when the

underlying model is estimated using the exports and imports data respectively However a closer

look at panels 1 and 2 of this Appendix reveals that the index recorded higher values across all the

horizons for exports than for imports This aptly captures the pattern of trade between Africa and

the rest of the world which shows that Africalsquos export trade in dollar terms at least in the last

decade is higher than its import trade (see table 1 in appendix 1 of African Trade Statistics

Yearbook 2017) This finding clearly indicates that Africa may be vulnerable to trade shocks

which underlines the motivation behind this study

Figure 1 Total Trade Linkage Index

Source Authors Notes The Total trade linkage Index reported here is the most aggregated non-

directional trade linkage index computed for all horizons following equation (9) Notice that the index rises

smoothly from the short-run (ie horizon 1) towards the long-run (ie horizon 16) indicating that African

economies become more interlinked in the long-run

42 Determining the BRICS countries and other countries in the rest of the world that are

dominating Africarsquos trade and therefore have the potential to spread trade shocks to Africa

An important objective of this study is to determine the BRICS member countries and other

countries in the rest of the world that are dominating Africalsquos trade and therefore have the potential

to spread trade shocks to Africa To achieve this objective we report the from-effect trade linkage

from all the economies in the system to each African economy following equation (6) We include

the heatwave (or own-effect) of equation (5) in this table so that it sums up to 100 We aggregate

0

20

40

60

80

100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Pe

rce

nta

ge (

)

Horizon

18

the contributions from key regional trading blocs in order to reveal their influence on each African

economy The regional trading blocs accounted for here includes the BRICS (Brazil Russia India

China South Africa) the Asian Bloc (India China Indonesia Japan Malaysia Russia) Europe

(UK EU) and the Americas (Canada Brazil USA)

Table 2 The From-effect Linkage of African Economies based on Total Trade Data

Country South Africa

DR Congo Egypt Ghana Morocco Nigeria Tanzania Tunisia

USA 71778 29440 61788 42154 74728 43927 18340 60843

Brazil 58032 19932 55790 44390 33250 42150 14919 67961

Russia 66697 31216 64970 49067 35979 32582 25549 72983

India 55713 60962 72008 64639 46561 32564 08157 46453

China 68649 57823 73921 90160 55913 54103 16375 75379

South Africa 80744 44883 80196 65987 54168 42197 06952 75993

Australia 27148 31751 25479 38758 25946 44026 26291 34948

Canada 65383 41541 57408 37902 73538 47009 14725 55939

EU 68368 15015 57468 38353 75445 42242 12341 63107

Indonesia 23779 16606 16213 15499 09009 26810 06512 23182

Japan 68181 31048 55894 40754 77014 55484 24794 61861

Malaysia 45584 42499 33993 16137 42698 30786 55850 29298

UK 80756 15008 76576 76385 96626 78466 69155 62834

DR Congo 18171 287238 16923 29821 07776 15582 103410 20364

Egypt 60237 30150 89778 75198 46710 27362 35750 64429

Ghana 33558 41383 52468 121599 42637 46661 27242 37347

Morocco 43059 10130 40407 33048 93997 68184 52822 45226

Nigeria 13664 95792 11543 67823 28771 186518 05394 16720

Tanzania 05952 80171 03841 15953 29832 65904 451662 08304

Tunisia 44544 17412 53335 36375 49400 17444 23759 76830

Total From-effect 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Total from Regional Trading Blocs

Total from BRICS 249093 214816 346886 314243 225871 203596 71952 338770

Total from Asia 328605 240154 317000 276255 267174 232328 137238 309157

Total from Europe 149124 30023 134044 114738 172072 120708 81496 125940

Total from the Americas 195193 90913 174986 124446 181516 133086 47984 184742

Source Authors Notes This table is a transpose of Table 1 It reports the from-effect of equation (6) for all

the African economies and includes the heatwave of equation (5) so that the total for each economy sums up

to 100 The table also aggregates the contributions from key regional trading blocs in the system to each

African economy In the case of South Africa the contribution from BRICS excludes South Africalsquos

heatwave Here BRICS includes Brazil Russia India China and South Africa Asia includes India China

Indonesia Japan Malaysia and Russia Europe includes UK and EU while the Americas include Canada

Brazil and USA

19

We find that among the BRICS China is the highest contributor to the NGFEVDs of the African

economies It contributed at least 5 to each African economy except for Tanzania India and

South Africa also made remarkable contributions India contributed 3 to Nigeria and at least 5

to all other African economies except for Tanzania while South Africa contributed at least 4 to

majority of the other African economies The roles of Brazil and Russia are only notable in South

Africa Egypt and Tunisia At this point we have established that among the BRICS China plays a

dominant role in Africalsquos trade As a trading bloc we find that the BRICS contribute at least 20

to each African economy except for Tanzania that showed 7 This shows that the BRICS play

dominant role in Africalsquos trade and therefore have the potential to spread trade shocks to it In the

rest of the global economy we find that UK USA Japan EU and Canada play important roles in

Africalsquos trade UK contributed at least 6 to all the African economies except for DR Congo

while each of USA Japan EU and Canada contributed at least 4 to majority of the African

economies Overall we find that China UK USA Japan EU and Canada dominate Africalsquos trade

and that the BRICS as a trading bloc also exert a dominant influence on Africa These findings are

consistent with the bulk of the established literature such as Greenwood-Nimmo et al (2015)

Diebold and Yilmaz (2016) Ogbuabor et al (2016) and Ogbuabor et al (2018) which shows that

China USA Japan EU and UK are important real activity shock transmitters and therefore

dominate global economic activities We stress that even though the results in Table 2 are based on

the total trade data they are nonetheless consistent with the results obtained by using the exports

and imports data in separate regressions (please see Appendix 6 for the details of these results)

43 Determining other trade blocs outside the BRICS that exert dominant influence on Africa

and therefore have the prospects of spreading trade shocks to it

Another specific objective of this study seeks to determine other trading blocs outside the BRICS

that exert dominant influence on Africa and therefore have the potential to spread trade shocks to it

To achieve this objective we consider the contributions from the regional trading blocs to the

respective African economies as shown in Table 2 We find that outside the BRICS the Asian

trading bloc exert the most dominant influence on Africa with China Japan and India accounting

for the bulk of the influence coming from this region to Africa The contribution of this region

20

ranged from 14 in Tanzania to 33 in South Africa The Asian bloc is followed by the Americas

whose influence ranged from 5 in Tanzania to 20 in South Africa with USA and Canada

accounting for the bulk of the influence emanating from this region We also find that the role of

the European trading bloc cannot be called negligible The European trading bloc comprises UK

and EU whose joint contribution to majority of the African economies is at least 12 Overall we

find that even though the Asian trading bloc is playing a dominant role in Africa the roles of the

Americas and Europe cannot be called unimportant The findings here are consistent with the ones

obtained by using the exports and imports data in separate regressions (please see Appendix 6)

44 Determining the African economies that are most susceptible to trade shocks originating

from the BRICS member countries and the rest of the global economy

Another important specific objective of this study seeks to determine the African economies that

are most vulnerable to trade shocks originating from the BRICS and the rest of the global economy

To achieve this objective we report the estimates of the dependence and influence indices

following equations (10) and (11) respectively To provide a robustness check on these estimates

we will also consider the results of the net-effect linkage of each African economy following

equation (8)

To begin consider the results of the dependence and influence indices as shown in Table 3 based on

the total trade data We find that except for South Africa and Egypt all the other African

economies in the system reported a negative influence index indicating that rather than being

influential they are all vulnerable or susceptible to trade shocks emanating from the influential

economies The notable influential economies in the system include China UK USA Japan

Canada EU and South Africa These economies have positive influence index of at least 5 and

thus dominate the system Among the BRICS China has the highest influence index of 16 and in

the rest of the global economy UK and USA recorded the highest influence index of 18 and 11

respectively We find that the African economies have dependence index ranging from 71 to

92 except for Tanzania which recorded 55 This indicates that the African economies are

considerably open to external influences particularly the trade shocks originating from the

dominant economies in the system The BRICS have dependence index ranging between 91 and

92 while the other countries in the rest of the global economy have dependence index ranging

between 87 and 92 showing that these economies are highly open economies These findings

21

are consistent with our a priori expectations They are also consistent with studies like Ogbuabor et

al (2016) which have established that African economies are predominantly small open economies

deeply interlinked with the rest of the world but systemically unimportant and vulnerable to

headwinds emanating from the dominant economies in the overall global economy Note that even

though the results in Table 3 are based on the total trade data they are quite consistent with the

results obtained by using the exports and imports data in separate regressions (please see Appendix

7)

Table 3 Dependence and Influence Indices Results based on Total Trade Data

Country Dependence Index Influence Index

USA 09225 01146

Brazil 09120 -00219

Russia 09112 00455

India 09078 -00084

China 09089 01571

South Africa 09193 01043

Australia 09204 -01804

Canada 09162 00942

EU 09242 00508

Indonesia 08702 -04052

Japan 09058 00983

Malaysia 08912 -00356

UK 08952 01750

DR Congo 07128 -01741

Egypt 09102 00250

Ghana 08784 -00938

Morocco 09060 -00343

Nigeria 08135 -01450

Tanzania 05483 -02800

Tunisia 09232 -01425 Source Authors Notes The dependence and influence indices were computed using equations (10) and

(11) respectively Please see Appendix 7 for the details of the results obtained by using the exports and

imports data in separate regressions which are consistent with the results reported in this Table 3

To see if the above findings are robust to the net-effect linkage of African economies let us

consider the net-effect results presented in Table 4 following equation (8) We find that while the

dominant economies have huge positive net-effects including USA China UK Japan Canada and

22

EU all the African economies have negative net-effects except for South Africa (which is also a

member of the BRICS) and Egypt (whose positive net-effect is quite marginal) Hence while the

aforementioned dominant economies are net transmitters of trade shocks majority of the African

economies are net receivers of trade shocks This is consistent with our earlier findings that African

economies are predominantly small open economies deeply interlinked with the rest of the world

but systemically unimportant and vulnerable to headwinds emanating from the dominant

economies These results still hold even when are subjected to robustness check by running

separate regressions using the exports and imports data (please see Appendix 8)

Table 4 Net-effect Linkage Results based on Total Trade Data

Country From-effect To-effect Net-effect

USA 922486 1167212 244726

Brazil 911992 874640 -37352

Russia 911225 1000613 89388

India 907825 898242 -09583

China 908903 1248026 339122

South Africa 919256 1136053 216797

Australia 920363 648580 -271782

Canada 916215 1112171 195956

EU 924230 1029565 105335

Indonesia 870173 369507 -500665

Japan 905765 1109993 204227

Malaysia 891174 833400 -57774

UK 895223 1279940 384716

DR Congo 712762 501596 -211166

Egypt 910222 960466 50244

Ghana 878401 774361 -104040

Morocco 906003 846578 -59425

Nigeria 813482 682922 -130560

Tanzania 548338 329206 -219132

Tunisia 923170 694139 -229031 Source Authors Notes The From-effects To-effects and Net-effects were computed following equations

(6) (7) and (8) respectively Please see Appendix 8 for the details of the results obtained by using the

exports and imports data in separate regressions which are consistent with the results reported in this Table

4

5 Conclusion and Policy Implications

23

This study examined the dynamics of trade shock propagation between Africa the BRICS and the

rest of the global economy using the network approach of Diebold and Yilmaz (2009) The paper

extended the empirical method by constructing generalized trade linkage measures at various levels

of aggregation The main findings are summarized as follows First we find that African economies

become more interlinked in the long-run as the business cycles become more synchronized and that

the trade linkage between Africa and the rest of the global economy is quite substantial with the

total trade linkage index having an average value of 87 Second we find that China USA UK

Japan EU and Canada dominate Africalsquos trade and therefore have the potential to spread output

shocks to it The results further indicate that apart from the BRICS other regional trade blocs (Asia

the Americas and Europe) play influential roles in Africalsquos trade Third we find that African

economies are predominantly open but vulnerable to global trade shocks especially those

originating from the aforementioned dominant sources These findings particularly provide support

for some earlier research findings which indicate that intra-Africalsquos trade has been relatively low as

a result of low level of structural complementarities among these economies Overall our findings

suggest that the roles of African economies in global economic activities can be systemically called

unimportant since these economies are predominantly net receivers of trade shocks rather than net

transmitters

The findings of this study have several policy implications because according to Greenwood-

Nimmo et al (2015) ―hellipglobalization makes it impossible for dominant economies to collapse in

isolation First policymakers in Africa are able to see that the stability of the continent depends

somewhat on the actions of the rest of the global economy which are generally outside the control

of the continent In other words the results of this study constitute an essential wake-up call to

policymakers in Africa to be mindful of the chances of adverse trade shocks emanating from the

aforementioned dominant sources particularly the Asian trade partners Policymakers and leaders

in Africa should therefore coordinate policies towards safeguarding the continent from future crisis

For example deliberate and well-coordinated policy efforts should target the diversification of

African economies as a form of insurance against future trade shocks To drive economic

diversification entrepreneurs and other investors should be encouraged through the provision of

basic infrastructure and adequate security for lives and property Second the results of this study

provide evidence to assist policymakers in Africa and the rest of the global economy in identifying

the likely sources of future trade shocks so that appropriate policy responses to such shocks can be

24

designed Such policies and strategies will in turn ensure that the Africalsquos common goal of shared

prosperity and enhanced living standards for all its citizens are achieved on a sustainable basis

Third the findings provide evidence that can assist policymakers across the globe in understanding

how measurement and evaluation of macroeconomic linkages can be used to improve risk

measurement and management public policy regulatory oversight and overall economic

integration This underlines the need for policymakers in Africa to view the results of this study as

part of the much needed early warning signals towards the evolution of well-coordinated policy

actions that can safeguard the continent from potential global trade shocks

25

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Billio M Getmansky M Lo AW and Pelizzon L (2012) Econometric Measures of

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Bollerslev T (1990) Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates A

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Brownlees C T Engle R (2012) Volatility Correlation and Tails for Systemic Risk

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Ccedilakir M Y and Kabundi Alain (2011) ―Trade Shocks from BRIC to South Africa A Global

VAR Analysis University of Johannesburg Auckland Park Campus Johannesburg

South Africa

Canova F Ciccarelli M and Ortega E (2007) Similarities and Convergence in G-7 Cycles

Journal of Monetary Economics 54 (3) 850 ndash 878

Caraiani P (2013) Using Complex Networks to Characterize International Business Cycles

PLoS ONE 8(3) e58109 Doi101371journalpone0058109

Dahlhans R and Eichler M (2003) Causality and Graphical Models in Time Series Analysis In

P J Green N L Hjort S Richardson (eds) Highly Structured Stochastic Systems Oxford

Statistical Science Series 27 115 ndash 137

Dees S di Mauro F Pesaran MH and Smith LV (2007) ―Exploring the International

Linkages of the Euro Area a Global VAR Analysis Journal of Applied Econometrics J

Appl Econ 22 1ndash38 (2007) Published online in Wiley InterScience

Dees S Holly S Pesaran MH and Smith LV (2007) ldquoLong Run Macroeconomic Relations

in the Global Economy Working Paper Series No 750 May 2007 European Central

Bank EuroSystem

Diebold FX and Yilmaz K (2009) Measuring Financial Asset Return and Volatility Spillovers

with Application to Global Equity Markets The Economic Journal 119(534) 158-171

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26

Diebold F X and Yilmaz K (2014) On the Network Topology of Variance Decompositions

Measuring the Connectedness of Financial Firms Journal of Econometrics 182(1) 119-

134 httpsdoiorg101016jjeconom201404012

Diebold FX and Yilmaz K (2015) Financial and Macroeconomic Connectedness A Network

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Diebold FX and Yilmaz K (2016) Measuring the Dynamics of Global Business Cycle

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Time Series Econometrics Essays in Honor of Andrew C Harvey Oxford Oxford

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9780199683666

Engle R F (2009) Anticipating Correlations A New Paradigm for Risk Management

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Engle R F and Kelly B (2012) Dynamic Equicorrelation Journal of Business and Economic

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Greenwood-Nimmo M Nguyen V H and Shin Y (2015) Measuring the Connectedness of the

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Kose MA Otrok C and Whiteman C H (2008) Understanding the Evolution of World

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Kose M A Prasad E S and Terrones M E (2003) How Does Globalization Affect the

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Lubik Thomas and Teo Wing Leong (2005) ―Do world shocks drive domestic

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Mantegna R N (1999) Hierarchical Structure in Financial Markets The European Physical

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Ogbuabor J E Eigbiremolen G O Aneke G C and Manasseh C O (2018) Measuring the

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Ogbuabor J E Orji A Aneke G C and Erdene-Urnukh O (2016) Measuring the Real and

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Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model Journal of Business amp

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Information in Complex Systems Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

102(30) 10421 ndash 10426 doi 101073pnas0500298102

28

Appendix 1 Descriptive statistics

Panel 1 Total trade

AUS BRA CAN CHN CON EGY EU GHA IND INDO

Mean 84011 81358 88127 67001 77455 80301 85688 74184 72914 84264

Median 84236 79800 90033 67500 83329 75169 86593 68642 71163 83149

Maximum 97207 94582 95355 101668 98959 96559 96925 102321 97017 96790

Minimum 68070 59661 74991 21419 52033 66311 71997 45609 41361 65780

Std Dev 09103 09923 06307 25939 15215 10771 07832 18510 18889 08659

Skewness -02557 -03265 -08339 -01564 -02113 01983 -03892 02254 -01552 -00788

Kurtosis 18436 20982 24076 16568 16486 13023 17853 16793 16301 18843

Jarque-Bera 71942 55790 140960 85592 90220 136781 93660 87637 88786 57136

Probability 00274 00615 00009 00138 00110 00011 00093 00125 00118 00575

Sum 9073191 8786664 9517664 7236112 8365173 8672560 9254352 8011865 7874676 9100564

Sum Sq Dev 886614 1053555 425632 7199027 2477109 1241421 656302 3666218 3817577 802300

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

JPN MAL MOR NIG RUS SAF TAN TUN UK USA

Mean 87236 83778 83738 76289 82244 86661 78667 79968 86786 85707

Median 87044 84389 82930 73778 83385 86057 79551 77917 88201 86262

Maximum 95578 94754 98656 93881 95886 96149 101364 94617 95788 95813

Minimum 77730 59370 71394 59040 66530 73517 55142 63446 74210 70590

Std Dev 05861 09711 08697 11261 10013 07122 14826 10113 06881 07874

Skewness -01509 -07693 00520 00961 -00788 -03648 00245 00168 -05261 -05221

Kurtosis 16540 25582 15010 14196 14106 19515 16529 15297 18919 20504

Jarque-Bera 85624 115304 101596 114054 114789 73429 81769 97338 105077 89641

Probability 00138 00031 00062 00033 00032 00254 00168 00077 00052 00113

Sum 9421434 9048058 9043667 8239173 8882388 9359360 8495988 8636512 9372902 9256322

Sum Sq Dev 367539 1009027 809327 1356855 1072816 542746 2351912 1094302 506657 663408

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

29

Panel 2 Exports


Mean 43295 41726 44997 33564 39203 39204 42884 37423 36712 41902

Median 43989 42513 46369 33563 40228 37215 43260 34893 36168 41063

Maximum 49267 47480 48047 50647 51078 48075 48591 52280 49347 48121

Minimum 35181 32658 38487 10999 28248 31282 35764 22685 20866 32299

Std Dev 03567 04627 02889 12951 07307 05704 03974 09473 09485 04404

Skewness -05126 -03390 -11139 -01593 01003 01444 -03788 02615 -01339 -00785

Kurtosis 24040 16695 28948 16237 17569 13333 18292 17687 15771 19101

Jarque-Bera 63277 100352 223840 89813 71350 128756 87513 80535 94336 54568

Probability 00423 00066 00000 00112 00282 00016 00126 00178 00089 00653

Sum 4675847 4506379 4859645 3624899 4233933 4234076 4631435 4041731 3964876 4525383

Sum Sq Dev 136178 229032 89333 1794823 571317 348181 168996 960184 962699 207557

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 42639 41893 42189 40448 42248 44177 39647 39949 43572 42808

Median 42484 42653 42154 38822 43018 44454 41144 39034 43987 42616

Maximum 47407 47004 48937 48585 47489 47584 52432 47544 47638 47884

Minimum 36895 30077 36326 33208 34602 38788 25067 31643 37575 35685

Std Dev 03435 04889 04158 05011 03967 02711 07820 04997 03222 03643

Skewness -00975 -08534 -00141 03327 -03128 -05993 -02009 -00408 -05455 -02672

Kurtosis 15123 25749 15233 15819 16434 21907 19619 15902 19928 19945

Jarque-Bera 101311 139237 98169 110416 100430 94126 55756 89743 99206 58349

Probability 00063 00009 00074 00040 00066 00090 00616 00113 00070 00541

Sum 4605043 4524443 4556463 4368366 4562831 4771111 4281869 4314453 4705765 4623307

Sum Sq Dev 126277 255735 184992 268627 168392 78665 654348 267198 111068 141975

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

30

Panel 3 Imports


Mean 40716 39632 43130 33437 38252 41097 42805 36761 36202 42363

Median 40293 38797 43425 33938 42632 38025 43333 33749 34995 42524

Maximum 48275 47789 47365 51059 47958 48484 48334 50553 48606 48670

Minimum 31854 27002 36458 10124 23431 34572 36232 22924 19763 33482

Std Dev 05623 05535 03511 13000 08121 05130 03861 09070 09426 04291

Skewness -01054 -02950 -05179 -01564 -04266 02822 -03998 01867 -01796 -00986

Kurtosis 16142 23579 19916 16996 17030 13341 17464 15966 16997 18396

Jarque-Bera 88414 34218 94030 80500 108455 139220 99495 94901 81891 62349

Probability 00120 01807 00091 00179 00044 00009 00069 00087 00167 00443

Sum 4397345 4280285 4658019 3611214 4131240 4438484 4622917 3970134 3909800 4575180

Sum Sq Dev 338298 327825 131914 1808338 705702 281581 159501 880160 950711 197015

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 44596 41885 41548 35841 39996 42484 39020 40019 43214 42898

Median 44561 41759 40821 35106 40211 41620 38407 38883 44214 44011

Maximum 48381 47750 49720 46132 49229 48587 49650 47288 48210 47980

Minimum 40342 29293 35068 24090 30390 34645 29905 31802 36600 34622

Std Dev 02461 04854 04568 06666 06219 04457 07157 05136 03670 04301

Skewness -02384 -06748 01142 00167 00316 -02192 02042 00811 -05114 -06862

Kurtosis 19290 25254 14961 15951 14596 18055 14998 14947 18138 20792

Jarque-Bera 61848 92090 104121 88865 106955 72860 108786 103152 110391 122905

Probability 00454 00100 00055 00118 00048 00262 00043 00058 00040 00021

Sum 4816391 4523614 4487204 3870807 4319557 4588249 4214119 4322059 4667138 4633015

Sum Sq Dev 64784 252086 223300 475453 413775 212507 548102 282235 144087 197896

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

31

Appendix 2 Time series plots of the data

Panel 1 Total Trade

Panel 2 Exports

0

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morocco nigeria tanzania tunisia

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32

Panel 3 Imports

Source Authors Notes These graphs plot the data over the full sample

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morocco nigeria tunisia tanzania

33

Appendix 3 Phillips-Perron Unit Root Test Results for Total Trade

Variables PP Test stat at

level Critical

value at 5

PP Test stat at

1st Diff

Critical value at 5

Order of Integration

Australia -2087649 -3452358 -5511474 -3452764 I(1)

Brazil -151073 -3452358 -4815699 -3452764 I(1)

Canada -1688886 -3452358 -4919794 -3452764 I(1)

China -0761713 -3452358 -4666041 -3452764 I(1)

DRCongo -2701397 -3452358 -4969701 -3452764 I(1)

Egypt -1110372 -3452358 -4587926 -3452764 I(1)

EU -2479035 -3452358 -4796753 -3452764 I(1)

Ghana -1789434 -3452358 -4749838 -3452764 I(1)

India -0176913 -3452358 -5580811 -3452764 I(1)

Indonesia -1940294 -3452358 -7723706 -3452764 I(1)

Japan -27304 -3452358 -4666113 -3452764 I(1)

Malaysia -1798537 -3452358 -5140808 -3452764 I(1)

Morocco -3427262 -3452358 -5251978 -3452764 I(1)

Nigeria -1885798 -3452358 -6573952 -3452764 I(1)

Russia -2427019 -3452358 -4584745 -3452764 I(1)

Safrica -2459347 -3452358 -5061753 -3452764 I(1)

Tanzania -2080362 -3452358 -4639207 -3452764 I(1)

Tunisia -2521464 -3452358 -4922059 -3452764 I(1)

UK -292419 -3452358 -4914527 -3452764 I(1)

USA -1015221 -3452358 -5002348 -3452764 I(1) Source Authors Notes This table reports for total trade data To conserve space we do not report for

exports and imports since the patterns are similar that is all the variables are I(1)

34

Appendix 4 Johansen system cointegration test results

Panel 1 Trace test

Hypothesized No of CE(s) Eigenvalue Trace Stat

005 Critical Value Prob

None 08119 20372650 7605409 00000

At most 1 07484 18618330 6950496 00000

At most 2 06943 17169350 6409570 00000

At most 3 06896 15925080 5945066 00000

At most 4 06813 14696730 5486505 00000

At most 5 06751 13496030 5038266 00000

At most 6 06619 12315570 4597583 00000

At most 7 06605 11176950 4172519 00000

At most 8 06570 10042670 3749076 00000

At most 9 06534 8919101 3220692 00000

At most 10 06439 7806611 2731889 00000

At most 11 06424 6722533 2282979 00001

At most 12 06365 5642802 1874701 00000

At most 13 06312 4580251 1505585 00000

At most 14 06183 3532980 1177082 00000

At most 15 05059 2521643 888038 00000

At most 16 04229 1781345 638761 00000

At most 17 03477 1204084 429153 00000

At most 18 03308 755525 258721 00000

At most 19 02723 333740 125180 00000

Panel 2 Max-Eigenvalue test

Hypothesized No of CE(s) Eigenvalue

Max-Eigen Stat


None 08119 1754311 1262691 00000

At most 1 07484 1448984 1042928 00000

At most 2 06943 1244273 895584 00000

At most 3 06896 1228346 884120 00000

At most 4 06813 1200704 864224 00000

At most 5 06751 1180455 849650 00000

At most 6 06619 1138626 819543 00000

At most 7 06605 1134280 816415 00000

At most 8 06570 1123565 808703 00000

At most 9 06534 1112489 748375 00000

At most 10 06439 1084078 688121 00000

At most 11 06424 1079731 627522 00000

35

At most 12 06365 1062552 567052 00000

At most 13 06312 1047271 505999 00000

At most 14 06183 1011337 444972 00000

At most 15 05059 740298 383310 00000

At most 16 04229 577261 321183 00000

At most 17 03477 448558 258232 00001

At most 18 03308 421785 193870 00000

At most 19 02723 333740 125180 00000

Source Authors

36

Appendix 5 Plots of Total Trade Linkage Index (TTLI)

Panel 1 For Exports Data

Panel 2 For Imports Data

Source Authors Notes The graphs plot the Total Trade Linkage Index of equation (9) based on

the data for exports and imports

0

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37

Appendix 6 The From-effect Linkage of African Economies

Panel 1 Based on Exports Data

Country South Africa DR

Congo Egypt Ghana Morocco Nigeria Tanzania Tunisia

USA 75340 31220 52535 24920 32451 80425 16142 58582

Brazil 70609 08813 89311 04341 118017 31421 34896 70440

Russia 77612 125327 110425 34878 37666 32531 20684 95616

India 37554 88615 28643 68745 14462 45156 27108 20011

China 72605 55905 65828 98491 44992 74646 19369 79720

South Africa 97203 36750 72784 35206 31078 59433 25869 68574

Australia 11614 44655 02851 08205 109096 02585 32873 15055

Canada 73007 73293 50845 17185 57174 54735 08255 60655

EU 84055 25762 66141 26268 48995 68512 12978 68320

Indonesia 19769 24314 01169 80320 18449 16285 14550 05139

Japan 85308 40028 55534 22141 62552 85835 16891 70244

Malaysia 56649 70935 37736 31557 26228 67378 19406 37956

UK 53469 16542 64573 110048 19054 107249 55380 45530

DR Congo 29744 215520 39112 71369 09432 26191 07574 32377

Egypt 43495 37493 140244 17884 31158 27479 80075 60913

Ghana 03332 39604 21476 261490 10461 04486 12166 24795

Morocco 26742 12945 28298 04647 232156 27901 47621 48632

Nigeria 30411 05806 22706 64205 14887 130388 42022 25243

Tanzania 03455 10693 03545 11170 24621 31812 501363 06036

Tunisia 48028 35778 46245 06928 57070 25551 04778 106163



Total from BRICS 258380 315410 366990 241662 246216 243188 127926 334361

Total from Asia 349497 405125 299335 336134 204349 321832 118008 308685



38

Panel 2 Based on Imports Data


Congo Egypt Ghana Morocco Nigeria Tunisia Tanzania

USA 84417 27346 64937 08671 58633 45316 50364 08786

Brazil 62986 17990 52082 67154 42216 23105 79339 53891

Russia 80149 22871 85737 59520 44582 03436 72180 08594

India 24108 88781 32734 41954 80329 59152 35292 31134

China 57369 67788 51214 97239 36961 03302 48212 15927

South Africa 96491 23300 70515 22174 37526 16513 58827 15241

Australia 29237 67747 29516 62979 69457 03181 43946 24635

Canada 68897 31125 55227 47717 82931 07959 61205 05466

EU 71382 41920 40932 09740 82114 44444 71835 16233

Indonesia 45443 03361 37592 03145 24308 04855 20374 05870

Japan 67811 27701 61483 42867 46307 37472 64150 53856

Malaysia 57080 08193 56191 27331 61632 42365 26281 25684

UK 79705 08899 57763 09308 18636 75911 39259 30355

DR Congo 09940 314128 04962 51581 29301 07936 32248 94814

Egypt 33338 15688 113752 57598 34201 18514 40609 16733

Ghana 14299 25910 45405 243033 14637 60390 36649 10144

Morocco 29828 91510 32439 50298 136523 28312 64231 34121

Nigeria 16423 06604 31183 17516 07315 390801 09295 68504

Tunisia 40701 34480 50979 63742 67218 35759 117458 38775

Tanzania 30396 74657 25357 16435 25175 91275 28247 441238



Total from BRICS 224613 220729 292282 288040 241613 105508 293849 124787

Total from Asia 331961 218695 324952 272055 294119 150583 266489 141065


Total from the Americas 216300 76461 172245 123541 183780 76381 190908 68143 Source Authors Notes The notes in Table 2 apply

39

Appendix 7 Dependence and Influence Indices Results

Panel 1 Based on Exports Data Panel 2 Based on Imports Data

Country Dependence Index Influence Index Dependence Index Influence Index

USA 09188 00959 09065 00856

Brazil 08344 01108 08742 00260

Russia 08388 02094 08924 00929

India 09000 -01139 08413 -00254

China 09102 01438 08912 00402

South Africa 09028 00416 09035 00097

Australia 07105 -02842 08673 -00439

Canada 08991 00946 08986 01122

EU 09121 01077 08971 00713

Indonesia 07591 -03108 08369 -02587

Japan 08998 01361 08803 00883

Malaysia 09000 00528 08364 00472

UK 08870 00649 08808 -00493

DR Congo 07845 -00328 06859 -00974

Egypt 08598 -00230 08862 -01441

Ghana 07385 -03746 07570 -01304

Morocco 07678 -00723 08635 01011

Nigeria 08696 -01538 06092 -02776

Tanzania 04986 -03598 05588 -00770

Tunisia 08938 -01993 08825 -00518 Source Authors Notes The notes in Table 3 apply

40

Appendix 8 Net-effect Linkage Results


Country From-effect To-effect Net-effect From-effect To-effect Net-effect

USA 918838 1116203 197365 906516 1080837 174321

Brazil 834405 1048823 214418 874223 922305 48081

Russia 838838 1301518 462681 892421 1076102 183681

India 900031 715701 -184330 841338 842608 01270

China 910213 1216863 306650 891159 966746 75587

South Africa 902797 982282 79485 903509 923706 20197

Australia 710525 395694 -314831 867260 798447 -68813

Canada 899143 1089583 190440 898639 1131561 232923

EU 912144 1134632 222487 897115 1036992 139877

Indonesia 759059 405570 -353488 836906 492962 -343944

Japan 899771 1184811 285039 880287 1054533 174246

Malaysia 899995 1001143 101148 836384 922360 85975

UK 887018 1011048 124029 880782 799256 -81526

DR Congo 784480 738784 -45696 685872 576096 -109776

Egypt 859756 838059 -21696 886248 665117 -221131

Ghana 738510 364252 -374258 756967 607614 -149354

Morocco 767844 666083 -101761 863477 1066309 202831

Nigeria 869612 638121 -231491 609199 351031 -258168

Tanzania 498637 239716 -258921 558762 535112 -23650

Tunisia 893837 596566 -297271 882542 799916 -82626 Source Authors Notes The notes in Table 4 apply

2

Introduction

Intra-Africalsquos trade performance (import and export) is very infinitesimal compared to the rest of

the world (African Trade Statistics Yearbook 2017) The same trend reflects the characteristics of

African countries intra and extra - African trade For instance Nigerialsquos Intra-Africa import trade is

far below its trade with the rest of the world from 2010 ndash 2016 While Nigerialsquos import from the

rest of the world averaged US$4264277 million or 948 per cent during the same period it was

US$229385 million or 52 per cent within Africa Similarly Nigerialsquos intra-African export trade

averaged US$1046565 million or 120 per cent of total export during 2010 to 2016 while the

export to the rest of the world averaged US$8124003 or 880 per cent of total export The low

intra-Africa trade may have necessitated the move for Africalsquos trade integration to fast-track its

development Little wonder Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) have become important elements in

economic integration amongst most countries of the world It provides avenues for nations to enter

into bilateral or regional trade agreements to eliminate tariffs and non-tariff barriers to trade among

member countries African is currently establishing the African Continental Free Trade Area

(AfCFTA) treaty to create a single continental market for goods and services in member nations of

the African Union (AU) with free movement of business persons and investments using a single

currency

The AfCFTA is gathering momentum because globalization remains a contentious subject due to

the mixed benefits and opportunities it presents to participating countries In particular it makes

countries vulnerable to external shocks Granted that shocks often occur and granted further that

African countries largely have significant trade linkage with the rest of the world it is important to

model the sources of foreign influence on domestic economies particularly the BRIC (Brazil

Russia India and China) economies whose trade linkage with Africa is enormous In fact not only

does Africa trade significantly with the BRIC countries the latter also represent a model of

economic development exemplified by strong economic growth and an enormous capacity to

compete in a globalized world Besides trade linkage has been adjudged an important feature of

global economic integration between countries However following literature there is no common

view on whether intense global trade linkages would lead to more or less business cycle

harmonization Again World Banklsquos Global Economic Prospects report posits that growth in

emerging market and developing economies is expected to remain flat in 2019 Growth in many

other economies is also anticipated to decelerate with risks growing that growth could be even

3











shocks to it




















4








better captured

















the years to come





5








recessions




















and real GDP



6












portfolio













to shocks to the US






7
























model







8






























9



















this study












10





























11


as follows

119937120061 = 120630119963 + 120509120051119937120061minus120051120057120051=120783 + 120634120061 (1)















119918119917119916119933119915 119937119946120061 120634119947120061 119919 = 119941119946119947119944119919

= 120648120634119947119947minus120783 119942119946

prime120495119945120506120634119942119947 sup2119919minus120783119945=120782

119942119946prime120495119945120506120634120495119945

prime 119942119946 119919minus120783119945=120782

(3)









12








(NGFEVDs) given by2

119863 119892 = 119889 119894119895119892 where 119889 119894119895

119892=

119889119894119895119892

119889119894119895119892119873

119895=1

119889119894119895119892

= 119918119917119916119933119915 119937119946120061 120634119947120061 119919 (4)

By construction 119889 119894119895119892119873

119895=1 = 1 and 119889 119894119895119892119873


















that 119863119892119867 and 119889119894119895119892119867


respectively

13



119937120783

⋯ 1198891119895

119873

119895=1 119895 ne 1

119937120784

⋯ 1198892119895

119873

119895=1 119895 ne 2

⋮ ⋮ ⋮ ⋱

⋮ ⋮

119937119925

⋯ 119889119873119895

119873

119895=1 119895 ne 119873

To Others

1198891198941

119873

119894=1

119894 ne 1

1198891198942

119873

119894=1

119894 ne 2

⋯ 119889119894119873

119873

119894=1

119894 ne N

1

119873 119889119894119895

119873

119894 119895=1 119894 ne 119895











119919119947 = 119941119947119947 (5)






14





119917119947 = 119941119947119946119925119946=120783119946ne119947 (6)



by 119931119947) as

119931119947 = 119941119946119947119925119946=120783119946ne119947 (7)






119925119947 = 119931119947 minus 119917119947 (8)












119931119931119923119920 = 120783

119925 119917119947

119925119947=120783 =

120783

119925 119931119947

119925119947=120783 (9)

15










defined as

119926119947119919 =

119917119947

119919119947+ 119917119947 forall 119947 = 120783 120784 hellip 119925 (10)






119920119947119919 =

119925119947

119931119947+119917119947 forall 119947 = 120783 120784 hellip 119925 (11)






119919) in the





point (11)


16

















global economy















17
























0

20

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Pe

rce

nta

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18








USA 71778 29440 61788 42154 74728 43927 18340 60843

Brazil 58032 19932 55790 44390 33250 42150 14919 67961

Russia 66697 31216 64970 49067 35979 32582 25549 72983

India 55713 60962 72008 64639 46561 32564 08157 46453

China 68649 57823 73921 90160 55913 54103 16375 75379

South Africa 80744 44883 80196 65987 54168 42197 06952 75993

Australia 27148 31751 25479 38758 25946 44026 26291 34948

Canada 65383 41541 57408 37902 73538 47009 14725 55939

EU 68368 15015 57468 38353 75445 42242 12341 63107

Indonesia 23779 16606 16213 15499 09009 26810 06512 23182

Japan 68181 31048 55894 40754 77014 55484 24794 61861

Malaysia 45584 42499 33993 16137 42698 30786 55850 29298

UK 80756 15008 76576 76385 96626 78466 69155 62834

DR Congo 18171 287238 16923 29821 07776 15582 103410 20364

Egypt 60237 30150 89778 75198 46710 27362 35750 64429

Ghana 33558 41383 52468 121599 42637 46661 27242 37347

Morocco 43059 10130 40407 33048 93997 68184 52822 45226

Nigeria 13664 95792 11543 67823 28771 186518 05394 16720

Tanzania 05952 80171 03841 15953 29832 65904 451662 08304

Tunisia 44544 17412 53335 36375 49400 17444 23759 76830



Total from BRICS 249093 214816 346886 314243 225871 203596 71952 338770

Total from Asia 328605 240154 317000 276255 267174 232328 137238 309157









Brazil and USA

19





























20
















equation (8)















21







7)



USA 09225 01146

Brazil 09120 -00219

Russia 09112 00455

India 09078 -00084

China 09089 01571



Canada 09162 00942

EU 09242 00508


Japan 09058 00983

Malaysia 08912 -00356

UK 08952 01750

DR Congo 07128 -01741

Egypt 09102 00250

Ghana 08784 -00938

Morocco 09060 -00343

Nigeria 08135 -01450

Tanzania 05483 -02800







22











USA 922486 1167212 244726

Brazil 911992 874640 -37352

Russia 911225 1000613 89388

India 907825 898242 -09583

China 908903 1248026 339122

South Africa 919256 1136053 216797

Australia 920363 648580 -271782

Canada 916215 1112171 195956

EU 924230 1029565 105335

Indonesia 870173 369507 -500665

Japan 905765 1109993 204227

Malaysia 891174 833400 -57774

UK 895223 1279940 384716

DR Congo 712762 501596 -211166

Egypt 910222 960466 50244

Ghana 878401 774361 -104040

Morocco 906003 846578 -59425

Nigeria 813482 682922 -130560

Tanzania 548338 329206 -219132




4


23

















transmitters















24









25

References











ndash 505 DOI 1023072109358






South Africa













Bank EuroSystem



httpsdoiorg101111j1468-0297200802208x

26






9780199338306





9780199683666





1023072938189


















27





101257000282803321946804











43 doi 101111apel12218






1765(97)00214-0











102(30) 10421 ndash 10426 doi 101073pnas0500298102

28


Panel 1 Total trade


Mean 84011 81358 88127 67001 77455 80301 85688 74184 72914 84264

Median 84236 79800 90033 67500 83329 75169 86593 68642 71163 83149

Maximum 97207 94582 95355 101668 98959 96559 96925 102321 97017 96790

Minimum 68070 59661 74991 21419 52033 66311 71997 45609 41361 65780

Std Dev 09103 09923 06307 25939 15215 10771 07832 18510 18889 08659

Skewness -02557 -03265 -08339 -01564 -02113 01983 -03892 02254 -01552 -00788

Kurtosis 18436 20982 24076 16568 16486 13023 17853 16793 16301 18843

Jarque-Bera 71942 55790 140960 85592 90220 136781 93660 87637 88786 57136

Probability 00274 00615 00009 00138 00110 00011 00093 00125 00118 00575

Sum 9073191 8786664 9517664 7236112 8365173 8672560 9254352 8011865 7874676 9100564

Sum Sq Dev 886614 1053555 425632 7199027 2477109 1241421 656302 3666218 3817577 802300

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 87236 83778 83738 76289 82244 86661 78667 79968 86786 85707

Median 87044 84389 82930 73778 83385 86057 79551 77917 88201 86262

Maximum 95578 94754 98656 93881 95886 96149 101364 94617 95788 95813

Minimum 77730 59370 71394 59040 66530 73517 55142 63446 74210 70590

Std Dev 05861 09711 08697 11261 10013 07122 14826 10113 06881 07874

Skewness -01509 -07693 00520 00961 -00788 -03648 00245 00168 -05261 -05221

Kurtosis 16540 25582 15010 14196 14106 19515 16529 15297 18919 20504

Jarque-Bera 85624 115304 101596 114054 114789 73429 81769 97338 105077 89641

Probability 00138 00031 00062 00033 00032 00254 00168 00077 00052 00113

Sum 9421434 9048058 9043667 8239173 8882388 9359360 8495988 8636512 9372902 9256322

Sum Sq Dev 367539 1009027 809327 1356855 1072816 542746 2351912 1094302 506657 663408

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

29

Panel 2 Exports


Mean 43295 41726 44997 33564 39203 39204 42884 37423 36712 41902

Median 43989 42513 46369 33563 40228 37215 43260 34893 36168 41063

Maximum 49267 47480 48047 50647 51078 48075 48591 52280 49347 48121

Minimum 35181 32658 38487 10999 28248 31282 35764 22685 20866 32299

Std Dev 03567 04627 02889 12951 07307 05704 03974 09473 09485 04404

Skewness -05126 -03390 -11139 -01593 01003 01444 -03788 02615 -01339 -00785

Kurtosis 24040 16695 28948 16237 17569 13333 18292 17687 15771 19101

Jarque-Bera 63277 100352 223840 89813 71350 128756 87513 80535 94336 54568

Probability 00423 00066 00000 00112 00282 00016 00126 00178 00089 00653

Sum 4675847 4506379 4859645 3624899 4233933 4234076 4631435 4041731 3964876 4525383

Sum Sq Dev 136178 229032 89333 1794823 571317 348181 168996 960184 962699 207557

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 42639 41893 42189 40448 42248 44177 39647 39949 43572 42808

Median 42484 42653 42154 38822 43018 44454 41144 39034 43987 42616

Maximum 47407 47004 48937 48585 47489 47584 52432 47544 47638 47884

Minimum 36895 30077 36326 33208 34602 38788 25067 31643 37575 35685

Std Dev 03435 04889 04158 05011 03967 02711 07820 04997 03222 03643

Skewness -00975 -08534 -00141 03327 -03128 -05993 -02009 -00408 -05455 -02672

Kurtosis 15123 25749 15233 15819 16434 21907 19619 15902 19928 19945

Jarque-Bera 101311 139237 98169 110416 100430 94126 55756 89743 99206 58349

Probability 00063 00009 00074 00040 00066 00090 00616 00113 00070 00541

Sum 4605043 4524443 4556463 4368366 4562831 4771111 4281869 4314453 4705765 4623307

Sum Sq Dev 126277 255735 184992 268627 168392 78665 654348 267198 111068 141975

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

30

Panel 3 Imports


Mean 40716 39632 43130 33437 38252 41097 42805 36761 36202 42363

Median 40293 38797 43425 33938 42632 38025 43333 33749 34995 42524

Maximum 48275 47789 47365 51059 47958 48484 48334 50553 48606 48670

Minimum 31854 27002 36458 10124 23431 34572 36232 22924 19763 33482

Std Dev 05623 05535 03511 13000 08121 05130 03861 09070 09426 04291

Skewness -01054 -02950 -05179 -01564 -04266 02822 -03998 01867 -01796 -00986

Kurtosis 16142 23579 19916 16996 17030 13341 17464 15966 16997 18396

Jarque-Bera 88414 34218 94030 80500 108455 139220 99495 94901 81891 62349

Probability 00120 01807 00091 00179 00044 00009 00069 00087 00167 00443

Sum 4397345 4280285 4658019 3611214 4131240 4438484 4622917 3970134 3909800 4575180

Sum Sq Dev 338298 327825 131914 1808338 705702 281581 159501 880160 950711 197015

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 44596 41885 41548 35841 39996 42484 39020 40019 43214 42898

Median 44561 41759 40821 35106 40211 41620 38407 38883 44214 44011

Maximum 48381 47750 49720 46132 49229 48587 49650 47288 48210 47980

Minimum 40342 29293 35068 24090 30390 34645 29905 31802 36600 34622

Std Dev 02461 04854 04568 06666 06219 04457 07157 05136 03670 04301

Skewness -02384 -06748 01142 00167 00316 -02192 02042 00811 -05114 -06862

Kurtosis 19290 25254 14961 15951 14596 18055 14998 14947 18138 20792

Jarque-Bera 61848 92090 104121 88865 106955 72860 108786 103152 110391 122905

Probability 00454 00100 00055 00118 00048 00262 00043 00058 00040 00021

Sum 4816391 4523614 4487204 3870807 4319557 4588249 4214119 4322059 4667138 4633015

Sum Sq Dev 64784 252086 223300 475453 413775 212507 548102 282235 144087 197896

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

31


Panel 1 Total Trade

Panel 2 Exports

0

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32

Panel 3 Imports


0

1

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5

61

99

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Q1

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Q1

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Log

of

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ort

s






33



level Critical

value at 5

PP Test stat at

1st Diff

Critical value at 5


Australia -2087649 -3452358 -5511474 -3452764 I(1)

Brazil -151073 -3452358 -4815699 -3452764 I(1)

Canada -1688886 -3452358 -4919794 -3452764 I(1)

China -0761713 -3452358 -4666041 -3452764 I(1)

DRCongo -2701397 -3452358 -4969701 -3452764 I(1)

Egypt -1110372 -3452358 -4587926 -3452764 I(1)

EU -2479035 -3452358 -4796753 -3452764 I(1)

Ghana -1789434 -3452358 -4749838 -3452764 I(1)

India -0176913 -3452358 -5580811 -3452764 I(1)

Indonesia -1940294 -3452358 -7723706 -3452764 I(1)

Japan -27304 -3452358 -4666113 -3452764 I(1)

Malaysia -1798537 -3452358 -5140808 -3452764 I(1)

Morocco -3427262 -3452358 -5251978 -3452764 I(1)

Nigeria -1885798 -3452358 -6573952 -3452764 I(1)

Russia -2427019 -3452358 -4584745 -3452764 I(1)

Safrica -2459347 -3452358 -5061753 -3452764 I(1)

Tanzania -2080362 -3452358 -4639207 -3452764 I(1)

Tunisia -2521464 -3452358 -4922059 -3452764 I(1)

UK -292419 -3452358 -4914527 -3452764 I(1)



34


Panel 1 Trace test



None 08119 20372650 7605409 00000

At most 1 07484 18618330 6950496 00000

At most 2 06943 17169350 6409570 00000

At most 3 06896 15925080 5945066 00000

At most 4 06813 14696730 5486505 00000

At most 5 06751 13496030 5038266 00000

At most 6 06619 12315570 4597583 00000

At most 7 06605 11176950 4172519 00000

At most 8 06570 10042670 3749076 00000

At most 9 06534 8919101 3220692 00000

At most 10 06439 7806611 2731889 00000

At most 11 06424 6722533 2282979 00001

At most 12 06365 5642802 1874701 00000

At most 13 06312 4580251 1505585 00000

At most 14 06183 3532980 1177082 00000

At most 15 05059 2521643 888038 00000

At most 16 04229 1781345 638761 00000

At most 17 03477 1204084 429153 00000

At most 18 03308 755525 258721 00000

At most 19 02723 333740 125180 00000



Max-Eigen Stat


None 08119 1754311 1262691 00000

At most 1 07484 1448984 1042928 00000

At most 2 06943 1244273 895584 00000

At most 3 06896 1228346 884120 00000

At most 4 06813 1200704 864224 00000

At most 5 06751 1180455 849650 00000

At most 6 06619 1138626 819543 00000

At most 7 06605 1134280 816415 00000

At most 8 06570 1123565 808703 00000

At most 9 06534 1112489 748375 00000

At most 10 06439 1084078 688121 00000

At most 11 06424 1079731 627522 00000

35

At most 12 06365 1062552 567052 00000

At most 13 06312 1047271 505999 00000

At most 14 06183 1011337 444972 00000

At most 15 05059 740298 383310 00000

At most 16 04229 577261 321183 00000

At most 17 03477 448558 258232 00001

At most 18 03308 421785 193870 00000

At most 19 02723 333740 125180 00000

Source Authors

36






0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Pe

rce

nta

ge (

5)

Horizon

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Pe

rce

nta

ge (

)

Horizon

37





USA 75340 31220 52535 24920 32451 80425 16142 58582

Brazil 70609 08813 89311 04341 118017 31421 34896 70440

Russia 77612 125327 110425 34878 37666 32531 20684 95616

India 37554 88615 28643 68745 14462 45156 27108 20011

China 72605 55905 65828 98491 44992 74646 19369 79720

South Africa 97203 36750 72784 35206 31078 59433 25869 68574

Australia 11614 44655 02851 08205 109096 02585 32873 15055

Canada 73007 73293 50845 17185 57174 54735 08255 60655

EU 84055 25762 66141 26268 48995 68512 12978 68320

Indonesia 19769 24314 01169 80320 18449 16285 14550 05139

Japan 85308 40028 55534 22141 62552 85835 16891 70244

Malaysia 56649 70935 37736 31557 26228 67378 19406 37956

UK 53469 16542 64573 110048 19054 107249 55380 45530

DR Congo 29744 215520 39112 71369 09432 26191 07574 32377

Egypt 43495 37493 140244 17884 31158 27479 80075 60913

Ghana 03332 39604 21476 261490 10461 04486 12166 24795

Morocco 26742 12945 28298 04647 232156 27901 47621 48632

Nigeria 30411 05806 22706 64205 14887 130388 42022 25243

Tanzania 03455 10693 03545 11170 24621 31812 501363 06036

Tunisia 48028 35778 46245 06928 57070 25551 04778 106163



Total from BRICS 258380 315410 366990 241662 246216 243188 127926 334361

Total from Asia 349497 405125 299335 336134 204349 321832 118008 308685



38




USA 84417 27346 64937 08671 58633 45316 50364 08786

Brazil 62986 17990 52082 67154 42216 23105 79339 53891

Russia 80149 22871 85737 59520 44582 03436 72180 08594

India 24108 88781 32734 41954 80329 59152 35292 31134

China 57369 67788 51214 97239 36961 03302 48212 15927

South Africa 96491 23300 70515 22174 37526 16513 58827 15241

Australia 29237 67747 29516 62979 69457 03181 43946 24635

Canada 68897 31125 55227 47717 82931 07959 61205 05466

EU 71382 41920 40932 09740 82114 44444 71835 16233

Indonesia 45443 03361 37592 03145 24308 04855 20374 05870

Japan 67811 27701 61483 42867 46307 37472 64150 53856

Malaysia 57080 08193 56191 27331 61632 42365 26281 25684

UK 79705 08899 57763 09308 18636 75911 39259 30355

DR Congo 09940 314128 04962 51581 29301 07936 32248 94814

Egypt 33338 15688 113752 57598 34201 18514 40609 16733

Ghana 14299 25910 45405 243033 14637 60390 36649 10144

Morocco 29828 91510 32439 50298 136523 28312 64231 34121

Nigeria 16423 06604 31183 17516 07315 390801 09295 68504

Tunisia 40701 34480 50979 63742 67218 35759 117458 38775

Tanzania 30396 74657 25357 16435 25175 91275 28247 441238



Total from BRICS 224613 220729 292282 288040 241613 105508 293849 124787

Total from Asia 331961 218695 324952 272055 294119 150583 266489 141065



39




USA 09188 00959 09065 00856

Brazil 08344 01108 08742 00260

Russia 08388 02094 08924 00929

India 09000 -01139 08413 -00254

China 09102 01438 08912 00402

South Africa 09028 00416 09035 00097

Australia 07105 -02842 08673 -00439

Canada 08991 00946 08986 01122

EU 09121 01077 08971 00713

Indonesia 07591 -03108 08369 -02587

Japan 08998 01361 08803 00883

Malaysia 09000 00528 08364 00472

UK 08870 00649 08808 -00493

DR Congo 07845 -00328 06859 -00974

Egypt 08598 -00230 08862 -01441

Ghana 07385 -03746 07570 -01304

Morocco 07678 -00723 08635 01011

Nigeria 08696 -01538 06092 -02776

Tanzania 04986 -03598 05588 -00770


40




USA 918838 1116203 197365 906516 1080837 174321

Brazil 834405 1048823 214418 874223 922305 48081

Russia 838838 1301518 462681 892421 1076102 183681

India 900031 715701 -184330 841338 842608 01270

China 910213 1216863 306650 891159 966746 75587

South Africa 902797 982282 79485 903509 923706 20197

Australia 710525 395694 -314831 867260 798447 -68813

Canada 899143 1089583 190440 898639 1131561 232923

EU 912144 1134632 222487 897115 1036992 139877

Indonesia 759059 405570 -353488 836906 492962 -343944

Japan 899771 1184811 285039 880287 1054533 174246

Malaysia 899995 1001143 101148 836384 922360 85975

UK 887018 1011048 124029 880782 799256 -81526

DR Congo 784480 738784 -45696 685872 576096 -109776

Egypt 859756 838059 -21696 886248 665117 -221131

Ghana 738510 364252 -374258 756967 607614 -149354

Morocco 767844 666083 -101761 863477 1066309 202831

Nigeria 869612 638121 -231491 609199 351031 -258168

Tanzania 498637 239716 -258921 558762 535112 -23650


3











shocks to it




















4








better captured

















the years to come





5








recessions




















and real GDP



6












portfolio













to shocks to the US






7
























model







8






























9



















this study












10





























11


as follows

119937120061 = 120630119963 + 120509120051119937120061minus120051120057120051=120783 + 120634120061 (1)















119918119917119916119933119915 119937119946120061 120634119947120061 119919 = 119941119946119947119944119919

= 120648120634119947119947minus120783 119942119946

prime120495119945120506120634119942119947 sup2119919minus120783119945=120782

119942119946prime120495119945120506120634120495119945

prime 119942119946 119919minus120783119945=120782

(3)









12








(NGFEVDs) given by2

119863 119892 = 119889 119894119895119892 where 119889 119894119895

119892=

119889119894119895119892

119889119894119895119892119873

119895=1

119889119894119895119892

= 119918119917119916119933119915 119937119946120061 120634119947120061 119919 (4)

By construction 119889 119894119895119892119873

119895=1 = 1 and 119889 119894119895119892119873


















that 119863119892119867 and 119889119894119895119892119867


respectively

13



119937120783

⋯ 1198891119895

119873

119895=1 119895 ne 1

119937120784

⋯ 1198892119895

119873

119895=1 119895 ne 2

⋮ ⋮ ⋮ ⋱

⋮ ⋮

119937119925

⋯ 119889119873119895

119873

119895=1 119895 ne 119873

To Others

1198891198941

119873

119894=1

119894 ne 1

1198891198942

119873

119894=1

119894 ne 2

⋯ 119889119894119873

119873

119894=1

119894 ne N

1

119873 119889119894119895

119873

119894 119895=1 119894 ne 119895











119919119947 = 119941119947119947 (5)






14





119917119947 = 119941119947119946119925119946=120783119946ne119947 (6)



by 119931119947) as

119931119947 = 119941119946119947119925119946=120783119946ne119947 (7)






119925119947 = 119931119947 minus 119917119947 (8)












119931119931119923119920 = 120783

119925 119917119947

119925119947=120783 =

120783

119925 119931119947

119925119947=120783 (9)

15










defined as

119926119947119919 =

119917119947

119919119947+ 119917119947 forall 119947 = 120783 120784 hellip 119925 (10)






119920119947119919 =

119925119947

119931119947+119917119947 forall 119947 = 120783 120784 hellip 119925 (11)






119919) in the





point (11)


16

















global economy















17
























0

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USA 71778 29440 61788 42154 74728 43927 18340 60843

Brazil 58032 19932 55790 44390 33250 42150 14919 67961

Russia 66697 31216 64970 49067 35979 32582 25549 72983

India 55713 60962 72008 64639 46561 32564 08157 46453

China 68649 57823 73921 90160 55913 54103 16375 75379

South Africa 80744 44883 80196 65987 54168 42197 06952 75993

Australia 27148 31751 25479 38758 25946 44026 26291 34948

Canada 65383 41541 57408 37902 73538 47009 14725 55939

EU 68368 15015 57468 38353 75445 42242 12341 63107

Indonesia 23779 16606 16213 15499 09009 26810 06512 23182

Japan 68181 31048 55894 40754 77014 55484 24794 61861

Malaysia 45584 42499 33993 16137 42698 30786 55850 29298

UK 80756 15008 76576 76385 96626 78466 69155 62834

DR Congo 18171 287238 16923 29821 07776 15582 103410 20364

Egypt 60237 30150 89778 75198 46710 27362 35750 64429

Ghana 33558 41383 52468 121599 42637 46661 27242 37347

Morocco 43059 10130 40407 33048 93997 68184 52822 45226

Nigeria 13664 95792 11543 67823 28771 186518 05394 16720

Tanzania 05952 80171 03841 15953 29832 65904 451662 08304

Tunisia 44544 17412 53335 36375 49400 17444 23759 76830



Total from BRICS 249093 214816 346886 314243 225871 203596 71952 338770

Total from Asia 328605 240154 317000 276255 267174 232328 137238 309157









Brazil and USA

19





























20
















equation (8)















21







7)



USA 09225 01146

Brazil 09120 -00219

Russia 09112 00455

India 09078 -00084

China 09089 01571



Canada 09162 00942

EU 09242 00508


Japan 09058 00983

Malaysia 08912 -00356

UK 08952 01750

DR Congo 07128 -01741

Egypt 09102 00250

Ghana 08784 -00938

Morocco 09060 -00343

Nigeria 08135 -01450

Tanzania 05483 -02800







22











USA 922486 1167212 244726

Brazil 911992 874640 -37352

Russia 911225 1000613 89388

India 907825 898242 -09583

China 908903 1248026 339122

South Africa 919256 1136053 216797

Australia 920363 648580 -271782

Canada 916215 1112171 195956

EU 924230 1029565 105335

Indonesia 870173 369507 -500665

Japan 905765 1109993 204227

Malaysia 891174 833400 -57774

UK 895223 1279940 384716

DR Congo 712762 501596 -211166

Egypt 910222 960466 50244

Ghana 878401 774361 -104040

Morocco 906003 846578 -59425

Nigeria 813482 682922 -130560

Tanzania 548338 329206 -219132




4


23

















transmitters















24









25

References











ndash 505 DOI 1023072109358






South Africa













Bank EuroSystem



httpsdoiorg101111j1468-0297200802208x

26






9780199338306





9780199683666





1023072938189


















27





101257000282803321946804











43 doi 101111apel12218






1765(97)00214-0











102(30) 10421 ndash 10426 doi 101073pnas0500298102

28


Panel 1 Total trade


Mean 84011 81358 88127 67001 77455 80301 85688 74184 72914 84264

Median 84236 79800 90033 67500 83329 75169 86593 68642 71163 83149

Maximum 97207 94582 95355 101668 98959 96559 96925 102321 97017 96790

Minimum 68070 59661 74991 21419 52033 66311 71997 45609 41361 65780

Std Dev 09103 09923 06307 25939 15215 10771 07832 18510 18889 08659

Skewness -02557 -03265 -08339 -01564 -02113 01983 -03892 02254 -01552 -00788

Kurtosis 18436 20982 24076 16568 16486 13023 17853 16793 16301 18843

Jarque-Bera 71942 55790 140960 85592 90220 136781 93660 87637 88786 57136

Probability 00274 00615 00009 00138 00110 00011 00093 00125 00118 00575

Sum 9073191 8786664 9517664 7236112 8365173 8672560 9254352 8011865 7874676 9100564

Sum Sq Dev 886614 1053555 425632 7199027 2477109 1241421 656302 3666218 3817577 802300

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 87236 83778 83738 76289 82244 86661 78667 79968 86786 85707

Median 87044 84389 82930 73778 83385 86057 79551 77917 88201 86262

Maximum 95578 94754 98656 93881 95886 96149 101364 94617 95788 95813

Minimum 77730 59370 71394 59040 66530 73517 55142 63446 74210 70590

Std Dev 05861 09711 08697 11261 10013 07122 14826 10113 06881 07874

Skewness -01509 -07693 00520 00961 -00788 -03648 00245 00168 -05261 -05221

Kurtosis 16540 25582 15010 14196 14106 19515 16529 15297 18919 20504

Jarque-Bera 85624 115304 101596 114054 114789 73429 81769 97338 105077 89641

Probability 00138 00031 00062 00033 00032 00254 00168 00077 00052 00113

Sum 9421434 9048058 9043667 8239173 8882388 9359360 8495988 8636512 9372902 9256322

Sum Sq Dev 367539 1009027 809327 1356855 1072816 542746 2351912 1094302 506657 663408

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

29

Panel 2 Exports


Mean 43295 41726 44997 33564 39203 39204 42884 37423 36712 41902

Median 43989 42513 46369 33563 40228 37215 43260 34893 36168 41063

Maximum 49267 47480 48047 50647 51078 48075 48591 52280 49347 48121

Minimum 35181 32658 38487 10999 28248 31282 35764 22685 20866 32299

Std Dev 03567 04627 02889 12951 07307 05704 03974 09473 09485 04404

Skewness -05126 -03390 -11139 -01593 01003 01444 -03788 02615 -01339 -00785

Kurtosis 24040 16695 28948 16237 17569 13333 18292 17687 15771 19101

Jarque-Bera 63277 100352 223840 89813 71350 128756 87513 80535 94336 54568

Probability 00423 00066 00000 00112 00282 00016 00126 00178 00089 00653

Sum 4675847 4506379 4859645 3624899 4233933 4234076 4631435 4041731 3964876 4525383

Sum Sq Dev 136178 229032 89333 1794823 571317 348181 168996 960184 962699 207557

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 42639 41893 42189 40448 42248 44177 39647 39949 43572 42808

Median 42484 42653 42154 38822 43018 44454 41144 39034 43987 42616

Maximum 47407 47004 48937 48585 47489 47584 52432 47544 47638 47884

Minimum 36895 30077 36326 33208 34602 38788 25067 31643 37575 35685

Std Dev 03435 04889 04158 05011 03967 02711 07820 04997 03222 03643

Skewness -00975 -08534 -00141 03327 -03128 -05993 -02009 -00408 -05455 -02672

Kurtosis 15123 25749 15233 15819 16434 21907 19619 15902 19928 19945

Jarque-Bera 101311 139237 98169 110416 100430 94126 55756 89743 99206 58349

Probability 00063 00009 00074 00040 00066 00090 00616 00113 00070 00541

Sum 4605043 4524443 4556463 4368366 4562831 4771111 4281869 4314453 4705765 4623307

Sum Sq Dev 126277 255735 184992 268627 168392 78665 654348 267198 111068 141975

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

30

Panel 3 Imports


Mean 40716 39632 43130 33437 38252 41097 42805 36761 36202 42363

Median 40293 38797 43425 33938 42632 38025 43333 33749 34995 42524

Maximum 48275 47789 47365 51059 47958 48484 48334 50553 48606 48670

Minimum 31854 27002 36458 10124 23431 34572 36232 22924 19763 33482

Std Dev 05623 05535 03511 13000 08121 05130 03861 09070 09426 04291

Skewness -01054 -02950 -05179 -01564 -04266 02822 -03998 01867 -01796 -00986

Kurtosis 16142 23579 19916 16996 17030 13341 17464 15966 16997 18396

Jarque-Bera 88414 34218 94030 80500 108455 139220 99495 94901 81891 62349

Probability 00120 01807 00091 00179 00044 00009 00069 00087 00167 00443

Sum 4397345 4280285 4658019 3611214 4131240 4438484 4622917 3970134 3909800 4575180

Sum Sq Dev 338298 327825 131914 1808338 705702 281581 159501 880160 950711 197015

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 44596 41885 41548 35841 39996 42484 39020 40019 43214 42898

Median 44561 41759 40821 35106 40211 41620 38407 38883 44214 44011

Maximum 48381 47750 49720 46132 49229 48587 49650 47288 48210 47980

Minimum 40342 29293 35068 24090 30390 34645 29905 31802 36600 34622

Std Dev 02461 04854 04568 06666 06219 04457 07157 05136 03670 04301

Skewness -02384 -06748 01142 00167 00316 -02192 02042 00811 -05114 -06862

Kurtosis 19290 25254 14961 15951 14596 18055 14998 14947 18138 20792

Jarque-Bera 61848 92090 104121 88865 106955 72860 108786 103152 110391 122905

Probability 00454 00100 00055 00118 00048 00262 00043 00058 00040 00021

Sum 4816391 4523614 4487204 3870807 4319557 4588249 4214119 4322059 4667138 4633015

Sum Sq Dev 64784 252086 223300 475453 413775 212507 548102 282235 144087 197896

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

31


Panel 1 Total Trade

Panel 2 Exports

0

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32

Panel 3 Imports


0

1

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Log

of

Imp

ort

s






33



level Critical

value at 5

PP Test stat at

1st Diff

Critical value at 5


Australia -2087649 -3452358 -5511474 -3452764 I(1)

Brazil -151073 -3452358 -4815699 -3452764 I(1)

Canada -1688886 -3452358 -4919794 -3452764 I(1)

China -0761713 -3452358 -4666041 -3452764 I(1)

DRCongo -2701397 -3452358 -4969701 -3452764 I(1)

Egypt -1110372 -3452358 -4587926 -3452764 I(1)

EU -2479035 -3452358 -4796753 -3452764 I(1)

Ghana -1789434 -3452358 -4749838 -3452764 I(1)

India -0176913 -3452358 -5580811 -3452764 I(1)

Indonesia -1940294 -3452358 -7723706 -3452764 I(1)

Japan -27304 -3452358 -4666113 -3452764 I(1)

Malaysia -1798537 -3452358 -5140808 -3452764 I(1)

Morocco -3427262 -3452358 -5251978 -3452764 I(1)

Nigeria -1885798 -3452358 -6573952 -3452764 I(1)

Russia -2427019 -3452358 -4584745 -3452764 I(1)

Safrica -2459347 -3452358 -5061753 -3452764 I(1)

Tanzania -2080362 -3452358 -4639207 -3452764 I(1)

Tunisia -2521464 -3452358 -4922059 -3452764 I(1)

UK -292419 -3452358 -4914527 -3452764 I(1)



34


Panel 1 Trace test



None 08119 20372650 7605409 00000

At most 1 07484 18618330 6950496 00000

At most 2 06943 17169350 6409570 00000

At most 3 06896 15925080 5945066 00000

At most 4 06813 14696730 5486505 00000

At most 5 06751 13496030 5038266 00000

At most 6 06619 12315570 4597583 00000

At most 7 06605 11176950 4172519 00000

At most 8 06570 10042670 3749076 00000

At most 9 06534 8919101 3220692 00000

At most 10 06439 7806611 2731889 00000

At most 11 06424 6722533 2282979 00001

At most 12 06365 5642802 1874701 00000

At most 13 06312 4580251 1505585 00000

At most 14 06183 3532980 1177082 00000

At most 15 05059 2521643 888038 00000

At most 16 04229 1781345 638761 00000

At most 17 03477 1204084 429153 00000

At most 18 03308 755525 258721 00000

At most 19 02723 333740 125180 00000



Max-Eigen Stat


None 08119 1754311 1262691 00000

At most 1 07484 1448984 1042928 00000

At most 2 06943 1244273 895584 00000

At most 3 06896 1228346 884120 00000

At most 4 06813 1200704 864224 00000

At most 5 06751 1180455 849650 00000

At most 6 06619 1138626 819543 00000

At most 7 06605 1134280 816415 00000

At most 8 06570 1123565 808703 00000

At most 9 06534 1112489 748375 00000

At most 10 06439 1084078 688121 00000

At most 11 06424 1079731 627522 00000

35

At most 12 06365 1062552 567052 00000

At most 13 06312 1047271 505999 00000

At most 14 06183 1011337 444972 00000

At most 15 05059 740298 383310 00000

At most 16 04229 577261 321183 00000

At most 17 03477 448558 258232 00001

At most 18 03308 421785 193870 00000

At most 19 02723 333740 125180 00000

Source Authors

36






0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Pe

rce

nta

ge (

5)

Horizon

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Pe

rce

nta

ge (

)

Horizon

37





USA 75340 31220 52535 24920 32451 80425 16142 58582

Brazil 70609 08813 89311 04341 118017 31421 34896 70440

Russia 77612 125327 110425 34878 37666 32531 20684 95616

India 37554 88615 28643 68745 14462 45156 27108 20011

China 72605 55905 65828 98491 44992 74646 19369 79720

South Africa 97203 36750 72784 35206 31078 59433 25869 68574

Australia 11614 44655 02851 08205 109096 02585 32873 15055

Canada 73007 73293 50845 17185 57174 54735 08255 60655

EU 84055 25762 66141 26268 48995 68512 12978 68320

Indonesia 19769 24314 01169 80320 18449 16285 14550 05139

Japan 85308 40028 55534 22141 62552 85835 16891 70244

Malaysia 56649 70935 37736 31557 26228 67378 19406 37956

UK 53469 16542 64573 110048 19054 107249 55380 45530

DR Congo 29744 215520 39112 71369 09432 26191 07574 32377

Egypt 43495 37493 140244 17884 31158 27479 80075 60913

Ghana 03332 39604 21476 261490 10461 04486 12166 24795

Morocco 26742 12945 28298 04647 232156 27901 47621 48632

Nigeria 30411 05806 22706 64205 14887 130388 42022 25243

Tanzania 03455 10693 03545 11170 24621 31812 501363 06036

Tunisia 48028 35778 46245 06928 57070 25551 04778 106163



Total from BRICS 258380 315410 366990 241662 246216 243188 127926 334361

Total from Asia 349497 405125 299335 336134 204349 321832 118008 308685



38




USA 84417 27346 64937 08671 58633 45316 50364 08786

Brazil 62986 17990 52082 67154 42216 23105 79339 53891

Russia 80149 22871 85737 59520 44582 03436 72180 08594

India 24108 88781 32734 41954 80329 59152 35292 31134

China 57369 67788 51214 97239 36961 03302 48212 15927

South Africa 96491 23300 70515 22174 37526 16513 58827 15241

Australia 29237 67747 29516 62979 69457 03181 43946 24635

Canada 68897 31125 55227 47717 82931 07959 61205 05466

EU 71382 41920 40932 09740 82114 44444 71835 16233

Indonesia 45443 03361 37592 03145 24308 04855 20374 05870

Japan 67811 27701 61483 42867 46307 37472 64150 53856

Malaysia 57080 08193 56191 27331 61632 42365 26281 25684

UK 79705 08899 57763 09308 18636 75911 39259 30355

DR Congo 09940 314128 04962 51581 29301 07936 32248 94814

Egypt 33338 15688 113752 57598 34201 18514 40609 16733

Ghana 14299 25910 45405 243033 14637 60390 36649 10144

Morocco 29828 91510 32439 50298 136523 28312 64231 34121

Nigeria 16423 06604 31183 17516 07315 390801 09295 68504

Tunisia 40701 34480 50979 63742 67218 35759 117458 38775

Tanzania 30396 74657 25357 16435 25175 91275 28247 441238



Total from BRICS 224613 220729 292282 288040 241613 105508 293849 124787

Total from Asia 331961 218695 324952 272055 294119 150583 266489 141065



39




USA 09188 00959 09065 00856

Brazil 08344 01108 08742 00260

Russia 08388 02094 08924 00929

India 09000 -01139 08413 -00254

China 09102 01438 08912 00402

South Africa 09028 00416 09035 00097

Australia 07105 -02842 08673 -00439

Canada 08991 00946 08986 01122

EU 09121 01077 08971 00713

Indonesia 07591 -03108 08369 -02587

Japan 08998 01361 08803 00883

Malaysia 09000 00528 08364 00472

UK 08870 00649 08808 -00493

DR Congo 07845 -00328 06859 -00974

Egypt 08598 -00230 08862 -01441

Ghana 07385 -03746 07570 -01304

Morocco 07678 -00723 08635 01011

Nigeria 08696 -01538 06092 -02776

Tanzania 04986 -03598 05588 -00770


40




USA 918838 1116203 197365 906516 1080837 174321

Brazil 834405 1048823 214418 874223 922305 48081

Russia 838838 1301518 462681 892421 1076102 183681

India 900031 715701 -184330 841338 842608 01270

China 910213 1216863 306650 891159 966746 75587

South Africa 902797 982282 79485 903509 923706 20197

Australia 710525 395694 -314831 867260 798447 -68813

Canada 899143 1089583 190440 898639 1131561 232923

EU 912144 1134632 222487 897115 1036992 139877

Indonesia 759059 405570 -353488 836906 492962 -343944

Japan 899771 1184811 285039 880287 1054533 174246

Malaysia 899995 1001143 101148 836384 922360 85975

UK 887018 1011048 124029 880782 799256 -81526

DR Congo 784480 738784 -45696 685872 576096 -109776

Egypt 859756 838059 -21696 886248 665117 -221131

Ghana 738510 364252 -374258 756967 607614 -149354

Morocco 767844 666083 -101761 863477 1066309 202831

Nigeria 869612 638121 -231491 609199 351031 -258168

Tanzania 498637 239716 -258921 558762 535112 -23650


4








better captured

















the years to come





5








recessions




















and real GDP



6












portfolio













to shocks to the US






7
























model







8






























9



















this study












10





























11


as follows

119937120061 = 120630119963 + 120509120051119937120061minus120051120057120051=120783 + 120634120061 (1)















119918119917119916119933119915 119937119946120061 120634119947120061 119919 = 119941119946119947119944119919

= 120648120634119947119947minus120783 119942119946

prime120495119945120506120634119942119947 sup2119919minus120783119945=120782

119942119946prime120495119945120506120634120495119945

prime 119942119946 119919minus120783119945=120782

(3)









12








(NGFEVDs) given by2

119863 119892 = 119889 119894119895119892 where 119889 119894119895

119892=

119889119894119895119892

119889119894119895119892119873

119895=1

119889119894119895119892

= 119918119917119916119933119915 119937119946120061 120634119947120061 119919 (4)

By construction 119889 119894119895119892119873

119895=1 = 1 and 119889 119894119895119892119873


















that 119863119892119867 and 119889119894119895119892119867


respectively

13



119937120783

⋯ 1198891119895

119873

119895=1 119895 ne 1

119937120784

⋯ 1198892119895

119873

119895=1 119895 ne 2

⋮ ⋮ ⋮ ⋱

⋮ ⋮

119937119925

⋯ 119889119873119895

119873

119895=1 119895 ne 119873

To Others

1198891198941

119873

119894=1

119894 ne 1

1198891198942

119873

119894=1

119894 ne 2

⋯ 119889119894119873

119873

119894=1

119894 ne N

1

119873 119889119894119895

119873

119894 119895=1 119894 ne 119895











119919119947 = 119941119947119947 (5)






14





119917119947 = 119941119947119946119925119946=120783119946ne119947 (6)



by 119931119947) as

119931119947 = 119941119946119947119925119946=120783119946ne119947 (7)






119925119947 = 119931119947 minus 119917119947 (8)












119931119931119923119920 = 120783

119925 119917119947

119925119947=120783 =

120783

119925 119931119947

119925119947=120783 (9)

15










defined as

119926119947119919 =

119917119947

119919119947+ 119917119947 forall 119947 = 120783 120784 hellip 119925 (10)






119920119947119919 =

119925119947

119931119947+119917119947 forall 119947 = 120783 120784 hellip 119925 (11)






119919) in the





point (11)


16

















global economy















17
























0

20

40

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80

100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Pe

rce

nta

ge (

)

Horizon

18








USA 71778 29440 61788 42154 74728 43927 18340 60843

Brazil 58032 19932 55790 44390 33250 42150 14919 67961

Russia 66697 31216 64970 49067 35979 32582 25549 72983

India 55713 60962 72008 64639 46561 32564 08157 46453

China 68649 57823 73921 90160 55913 54103 16375 75379

South Africa 80744 44883 80196 65987 54168 42197 06952 75993

Australia 27148 31751 25479 38758 25946 44026 26291 34948

Canada 65383 41541 57408 37902 73538 47009 14725 55939

EU 68368 15015 57468 38353 75445 42242 12341 63107

Indonesia 23779 16606 16213 15499 09009 26810 06512 23182

Japan 68181 31048 55894 40754 77014 55484 24794 61861

Malaysia 45584 42499 33993 16137 42698 30786 55850 29298

UK 80756 15008 76576 76385 96626 78466 69155 62834

DR Congo 18171 287238 16923 29821 07776 15582 103410 20364

Egypt 60237 30150 89778 75198 46710 27362 35750 64429

Ghana 33558 41383 52468 121599 42637 46661 27242 37347

Morocco 43059 10130 40407 33048 93997 68184 52822 45226

Nigeria 13664 95792 11543 67823 28771 186518 05394 16720

Tanzania 05952 80171 03841 15953 29832 65904 451662 08304

Tunisia 44544 17412 53335 36375 49400 17444 23759 76830



Total from BRICS 249093 214816 346886 314243 225871 203596 71952 338770

Total from Asia 328605 240154 317000 276255 267174 232328 137238 309157









Brazil and USA

19





























20
















equation (8)















21







7)



USA 09225 01146

Brazil 09120 -00219

Russia 09112 00455

India 09078 -00084

China 09089 01571



Canada 09162 00942

EU 09242 00508


Japan 09058 00983

Malaysia 08912 -00356

UK 08952 01750

DR Congo 07128 -01741

Egypt 09102 00250

Ghana 08784 -00938

Morocco 09060 -00343

Nigeria 08135 -01450

Tanzania 05483 -02800







22











USA 922486 1167212 244726

Brazil 911992 874640 -37352

Russia 911225 1000613 89388

India 907825 898242 -09583

China 908903 1248026 339122

South Africa 919256 1136053 216797

Australia 920363 648580 -271782

Canada 916215 1112171 195956

EU 924230 1029565 105335

Indonesia 870173 369507 -500665

Japan 905765 1109993 204227

Malaysia 891174 833400 -57774

UK 895223 1279940 384716

DR Congo 712762 501596 -211166

Egypt 910222 960466 50244

Ghana 878401 774361 -104040

Morocco 906003 846578 -59425

Nigeria 813482 682922 -130560

Tanzania 548338 329206 -219132




4


23

















transmitters















24









25

References











ndash 505 DOI 1023072109358






South Africa













Bank EuroSystem



httpsdoiorg101111j1468-0297200802208x

26






9780199338306





9780199683666





1023072938189


















27





101257000282803321946804











43 doi 101111apel12218






1765(97)00214-0











102(30) 10421 ndash 10426 doi 101073pnas0500298102

28


Panel 1 Total trade


Mean 84011 81358 88127 67001 77455 80301 85688 74184 72914 84264

Median 84236 79800 90033 67500 83329 75169 86593 68642 71163 83149

Maximum 97207 94582 95355 101668 98959 96559 96925 102321 97017 96790

Minimum 68070 59661 74991 21419 52033 66311 71997 45609 41361 65780

Std Dev 09103 09923 06307 25939 15215 10771 07832 18510 18889 08659

Skewness -02557 -03265 -08339 -01564 -02113 01983 -03892 02254 -01552 -00788

Kurtosis 18436 20982 24076 16568 16486 13023 17853 16793 16301 18843

Jarque-Bera 71942 55790 140960 85592 90220 136781 93660 87637 88786 57136

Probability 00274 00615 00009 00138 00110 00011 00093 00125 00118 00575

Sum 9073191 8786664 9517664 7236112 8365173 8672560 9254352 8011865 7874676 9100564

Sum Sq Dev 886614 1053555 425632 7199027 2477109 1241421 656302 3666218 3817577 802300

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 87236 83778 83738 76289 82244 86661 78667 79968 86786 85707

Median 87044 84389 82930 73778 83385 86057 79551 77917 88201 86262

Maximum 95578 94754 98656 93881 95886 96149 101364 94617 95788 95813

Minimum 77730 59370 71394 59040 66530 73517 55142 63446 74210 70590

Std Dev 05861 09711 08697 11261 10013 07122 14826 10113 06881 07874

Skewness -01509 -07693 00520 00961 -00788 -03648 00245 00168 -05261 -05221

Kurtosis 16540 25582 15010 14196 14106 19515 16529 15297 18919 20504

Jarque-Bera 85624 115304 101596 114054 114789 73429 81769 97338 105077 89641

Probability 00138 00031 00062 00033 00032 00254 00168 00077 00052 00113

Sum 9421434 9048058 9043667 8239173 8882388 9359360 8495988 8636512 9372902 9256322

Sum Sq Dev 367539 1009027 809327 1356855 1072816 542746 2351912 1094302 506657 663408

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

29

Panel 2 Exports


Mean 43295 41726 44997 33564 39203 39204 42884 37423 36712 41902

Median 43989 42513 46369 33563 40228 37215 43260 34893 36168 41063

Maximum 49267 47480 48047 50647 51078 48075 48591 52280 49347 48121

Minimum 35181 32658 38487 10999 28248 31282 35764 22685 20866 32299

Std Dev 03567 04627 02889 12951 07307 05704 03974 09473 09485 04404

Skewness -05126 -03390 -11139 -01593 01003 01444 -03788 02615 -01339 -00785

Kurtosis 24040 16695 28948 16237 17569 13333 18292 17687 15771 19101

Jarque-Bera 63277 100352 223840 89813 71350 128756 87513 80535 94336 54568

Probability 00423 00066 00000 00112 00282 00016 00126 00178 00089 00653

Sum 4675847 4506379 4859645 3624899 4233933 4234076 4631435 4041731 3964876 4525383

Sum Sq Dev 136178 229032 89333 1794823 571317 348181 168996 960184 962699 207557

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 42639 41893 42189 40448 42248 44177 39647 39949 43572 42808

Median 42484 42653 42154 38822 43018 44454 41144 39034 43987 42616

Maximum 47407 47004 48937 48585 47489 47584 52432 47544 47638 47884

Minimum 36895 30077 36326 33208 34602 38788 25067 31643 37575 35685

Std Dev 03435 04889 04158 05011 03967 02711 07820 04997 03222 03643

Skewness -00975 -08534 -00141 03327 -03128 -05993 -02009 -00408 -05455 -02672

Kurtosis 15123 25749 15233 15819 16434 21907 19619 15902 19928 19945

Jarque-Bera 101311 139237 98169 110416 100430 94126 55756 89743 99206 58349

Probability 00063 00009 00074 00040 00066 00090 00616 00113 00070 00541

Sum 4605043 4524443 4556463 4368366 4562831 4771111 4281869 4314453 4705765 4623307

Sum Sq Dev 126277 255735 184992 268627 168392 78665 654348 267198 111068 141975

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

30

Panel 3 Imports


Mean 40716 39632 43130 33437 38252 41097 42805 36761 36202 42363

Median 40293 38797 43425 33938 42632 38025 43333 33749 34995 42524

Maximum 48275 47789 47365 51059 47958 48484 48334 50553 48606 48670

Minimum 31854 27002 36458 10124 23431 34572 36232 22924 19763 33482

Std Dev 05623 05535 03511 13000 08121 05130 03861 09070 09426 04291

Skewness -01054 -02950 -05179 -01564 -04266 02822 -03998 01867 -01796 -00986

Kurtosis 16142 23579 19916 16996 17030 13341 17464 15966 16997 18396

Jarque-Bera 88414 34218 94030 80500 108455 139220 99495 94901 81891 62349

Probability 00120 01807 00091 00179 00044 00009 00069 00087 00167 00443

Sum 4397345 4280285 4658019 3611214 4131240 4438484 4622917 3970134 3909800 4575180

Sum Sq Dev 338298 327825 131914 1808338 705702 281581 159501 880160 950711 197015

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 44596 41885 41548 35841 39996 42484 39020 40019 43214 42898

Median 44561 41759 40821 35106 40211 41620 38407 38883 44214 44011

Maximum 48381 47750 49720 46132 49229 48587 49650 47288 48210 47980

Minimum 40342 29293 35068 24090 30390 34645 29905 31802 36600 34622

Std Dev 02461 04854 04568 06666 06219 04457 07157 05136 03670 04301

Skewness -02384 -06748 01142 00167 00316 -02192 02042 00811 -05114 -06862

Kurtosis 19290 25254 14961 15951 14596 18055 14998 14947 18138 20792

Jarque-Bera 61848 92090 104121 88865 106955 72860 108786 103152 110391 122905

Probability 00454 00100 00055 00118 00048 00262 00043 00058 00040 00021

Sum 4816391 4523614 4487204 3870807 4319557 4588249 4214119 4322059 4667138 4633015

Sum Sq Dev 64784 252086 223300 475453 413775 212507 548102 282235 144087 197896

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

31


Panel 1 Total Trade

Panel 2 Exports

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Panel 3 Imports


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of

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33



level Critical

value at 5

PP Test stat at

1st Diff

Critical value at 5


Australia -2087649 -3452358 -5511474 -3452764 I(1)

Brazil -151073 -3452358 -4815699 -3452764 I(1)

Canada -1688886 -3452358 -4919794 -3452764 I(1)

China -0761713 -3452358 -4666041 -3452764 I(1)

DRCongo -2701397 -3452358 -4969701 -3452764 I(1)

Egypt -1110372 -3452358 -4587926 -3452764 I(1)

EU -2479035 -3452358 -4796753 -3452764 I(1)

Ghana -1789434 -3452358 -4749838 -3452764 I(1)

India -0176913 -3452358 -5580811 -3452764 I(1)

Indonesia -1940294 -3452358 -7723706 -3452764 I(1)

Japan -27304 -3452358 -4666113 -3452764 I(1)

Malaysia -1798537 -3452358 -5140808 -3452764 I(1)

Morocco -3427262 -3452358 -5251978 -3452764 I(1)

Nigeria -1885798 -3452358 -6573952 -3452764 I(1)

Russia -2427019 -3452358 -4584745 -3452764 I(1)

Safrica -2459347 -3452358 -5061753 -3452764 I(1)

Tanzania -2080362 -3452358 -4639207 -3452764 I(1)

Tunisia -2521464 -3452358 -4922059 -3452764 I(1)

UK -292419 -3452358 -4914527 -3452764 I(1)



34


Panel 1 Trace test



None 08119 20372650 7605409 00000

At most 1 07484 18618330 6950496 00000

At most 2 06943 17169350 6409570 00000

At most 3 06896 15925080 5945066 00000

At most 4 06813 14696730 5486505 00000

At most 5 06751 13496030 5038266 00000

At most 6 06619 12315570 4597583 00000

At most 7 06605 11176950 4172519 00000

At most 8 06570 10042670 3749076 00000

At most 9 06534 8919101 3220692 00000

At most 10 06439 7806611 2731889 00000

At most 11 06424 6722533 2282979 00001

At most 12 06365 5642802 1874701 00000

At most 13 06312 4580251 1505585 00000

At most 14 06183 3532980 1177082 00000

At most 15 05059 2521643 888038 00000

At most 16 04229 1781345 638761 00000

At most 17 03477 1204084 429153 00000

At most 18 03308 755525 258721 00000

At most 19 02723 333740 125180 00000



Max-Eigen Stat


None 08119 1754311 1262691 00000

At most 1 07484 1448984 1042928 00000

At most 2 06943 1244273 895584 00000

At most 3 06896 1228346 884120 00000

At most 4 06813 1200704 864224 00000

At most 5 06751 1180455 849650 00000

At most 6 06619 1138626 819543 00000

At most 7 06605 1134280 816415 00000

At most 8 06570 1123565 808703 00000

At most 9 06534 1112489 748375 00000

At most 10 06439 1084078 688121 00000

At most 11 06424 1079731 627522 00000

35

At most 12 06365 1062552 567052 00000

At most 13 06312 1047271 505999 00000

At most 14 06183 1011337 444972 00000

At most 15 05059 740298 383310 00000

At most 16 04229 577261 321183 00000

At most 17 03477 448558 258232 00001

At most 18 03308 421785 193870 00000

At most 19 02723 333740 125180 00000

Source Authors

36






0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Pe

rce

nta

ge (

5)

Horizon

0

10

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50

60

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80

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Pe

rce

nta

ge (

)

Horizon

37





USA 75340 31220 52535 24920 32451 80425 16142 58582

Brazil 70609 08813 89311 04341 118017 31421 34896 70440

Russia 77612 125327 110425 34878 37666 32531 20684 95616

India 37554 88615 28643 68745 14462 45156 27108 20011

China 72605 55905 65828 98491 44992 74646 19369 79720

South Africa 97203 36750 72784 35206 31078 59433 25869 68574

Australia 11614 44655 02851 08205 109096 02585 32873 15055

Canada 73007 73293 50845 17185 57174 54735 08255 60655

EU 84055 25762 66141 26268 48995 68512 12978 68320

Indonesia 19769 24314 01169 80320 18449 16285 14550 05139

Japan 85308 40028 55534 22141 62552 85835 16891 70244

Malaysia 56649 70935 37736 31557 26228 67378 19406 37956

UK 53469 16542 64573 110048 19054 107249 55380 45530

DR Congo 29744 215520 39112 71369 09432 26191 07574 32377

Egypt 43495 37493 140244 17884 31158 27479 80075 60913

Ghana 03332 39604 21476 261490 10461 04486 12166 24795

Morocco 26742 12945 28298 04647 232156 27901 47621 48632

Nigeria 30411 05806 22706 64205 14887 130388 42022 25243

Tanzania 03455 10693 03545 11170 24621 31812 501363 06036

Tunisia 48028 35778 46245 06928 57070 25551 04778 106163



Total from BRICS 258380 315410 366990 241662 246216 243188 127926 334361

Total from Asia 349497 405125 299335 336134 204349 321832 118008 308685



38




USA 84417 27346 64937 08671 58633 45316 50364 08786

Brazil 62986 17990 52082 67154 42216 23105 79339 53891

Russia 80149 22871 85737 59520 44582 03436 72180 08594

India 24108 88781 32734 41954 80329 59152 35292 31134

China 57369 67788 51214 97239 36961 03302 48212 15927

South Africa 96491 23300 70515 22174 37526 16513 58827 15241

Australia 29237 67747 29516 62979 69457 03181 43946 24635

Canada 68897 31125 55227 47717 82931 07959 61205 05466

EU 71382 41920 40932 09740 82114 44444 71835 16233

Indonesia 45443 03361 37592 03145 24308 04855 20374 05870

Japan 67811 27701 61483 42867 46307 37472 64150 53856

Malaysia 57080 08193 56191 27331 61632 42365 26281 25684

UK 79705 08899 57763 09308 18636 75911 39259 30355

DR Congo 09940 314128 04962 51581 29301 07936 32248 94814

Egypt 33338 15688 113752 57598 34201 18514 40609 16733

Ghana 14299 25910 45405 243033 14637 60390 36649 10144

Morocco 29828 91510 32439 50298 136523 28312 64231 34121

Nigeria 16423 06604 31183 17516 07315 390801 09295 68504

Tunisia 40701 34480 50979 63742 67218 35759 117458 38775

Tanzania 30396 74657 25357 16435 25175 91275 28247 441238



Total from BRICS 224613 220729 292282 288040 241613 105508 293849 124787

Total from Asia 331961 218695 324952 272055 294119 150583 266489 141065



39




USA 09188 00959 09065 00856

Brazil 08344 01108 08742 00260

Russia 08388 02094 08924 00929

India 09000 -01139 08413 -00254

China 09102 01438 08912 00402

South Africa 09028 00416 09035 00097

Australia 07105 -02842 08673 -00439

Canada 08991 00946 08986 01122

EU 09121 01077 08971 00713

Indonesia 07591 -03108 08369 -02587

Japan 08998 01361 08803 00883

Malaysia 09000 00528 08364 00472

UK 08870 00649 08808 -00493

DR Congo 07845 -00328 06859 -00974

Egypt 08598 -00230 08862 -01441

Ghana 07385 -03746 07570 -01304

Morocco 07678 -00723 08635 01011

Nigeria 08696 -01538 06092 -02776

Tanzania 04986 -03598 05588 -00770


40




USA 918838 1116203 197365 906516 1080837 174321

Brazil 834405 1048823 214418 874223 922305 48081

Russia 838838 1301518 462681 892421 1076102 183681

India 900031 715701 -184330 841338 842608 01270

China 910213 1216863 306650 891159 966746 75587

South Africa 902797 982282 79485 903509 923706 20197

Australia 710525 395694 -314831 867260 798447 -68813

Canada 899143 1089583 190440 898639 1131561 232923

EU 912144 1134632 222487 897115 1036992 139877

Indonesia 759059 405570 -353488 836906 492962 -343944

Japan 899771 1184811 285039 880287 1054533 174246

Malaysia 899995 1001143 101148 836384 922360 85975

UK 887018 1011048 124029 880782 799256 -81526

DR Congo 784480 738784 -45696 685872 576096 -109776

Egypt 859756 838059 -21696 886248 665117 -221131

Ghana 738510 364252 -374258 756967 607614 -149354

Morocco 767844 666083 -101761 863477 1066309 202831

Nigeria 869612 638121 -231491 609199 351031 -258168

Tanzania 498637 239716 -258921 558762 535112 -23650


5








recessions




















and real GDP



6












portfolio













to shocks to the US






7
























model







8






























9



















this study












10





























11


as follows

119937120061 = 120630119963 + 120509120051119937120061minus120051120057120051=120783 + 120634120061 (1)















119918119917119916119933119915 119937119946120061 120634119947120061 119919 = 119941119946119947119944119919

= 120648120634119947119947minus120783 119942119946

prime120495119945120506120634119942119947 sup2119919minus120783119945=120782

119942119946prime120495119945120506120634120495119945

prime 119942119946 119919minus120783119945=120782

(3)









12








(NGFEVDs) given by2

119863 119892 = 119889 119894119895119892 where 119889 119894119895

119892=

119889119894119895119892

119889119894119895119892119873

119895=1

119889119894119895119892

= 119918119917119916119933119915 119937119946120061 120634119947120061 119919 (4)

By construction 119889 119894119895119892119873

119895=1 = 1 and 119889 119894119895119892119873


















that 119863119892119867 and 119889119894119895119892119867


respectively

13



119937120783

⋯ 1198891119895

119873

119895=1 119895 ne 1

119937120784

⋯ 1198892119895

119873

119895=1 119895 ne 2

⋮ ⋮ ⋮ ⋱

⋮ ⋮

119937119925

⋯ 119889119873119895

119873

119895=1 119895 ne 119873

To Others

1198891198941

119873

119894=1

119894 ne 1

1198891198942

119873

119894=1

119894 ne 2

⋯ 119889119894119873

119873

119894=1

119894 ne N

1

119873 119889119894119895

119873

119894 119895=1 119894 ne 119895











119919119947 = 119941119947119947 (5)






14





119917119947 = 119941119947119946119925119946=120783119946ne119947 (6)



by 119931119947) as

119931119947 = 119941119946119947119925119946=120783119946ne119947 (7)






119925119947 = 119931119947 minus 119917119947 (8)












119931119931119923119920 = 120783

119925 119917119947

119925119947=120783 =

120783

119925 119931119947

119925119947=120783 (9)

15










defined as

119926119947119919 =

119917119947

119919119947+ 119917119947 forall 119947 = 120783 120784 hellip 119925 (10)






119920119947119919 =

119925119947

119931119947+119917119947 forall 119947 = 120783 120784 hellip 119925 (11)






119919) in the





point (11)


16

















global economy















17
























0

20

40

60

80

100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Pe

rce

nta

ge (

)

Horizon

18








USA 71778 29440 61788 42154 74728 43927 18340 60843

Brazil 58032 19932 55790 44390 33250 42150 14919 67961

Russia 66697 31216 64970 49067 35979 32582 25549 72983

India 55713 60962 72008 64639 46561 32564 08157 46453

China 68649 57823 73921 90160 55913 54103 16375 75379

South Africa 80744 44883 80196 65987 54168 42197 06952 75993

Australia 27148 31751 25479 38758 25946 44026 26291 34948

Canada 65383 41541 57408 37902 73538 47009 14725 55939

EU 68368 15015 57468 38353 75445 42242 12341 63107

Indonesia 23779 16606 16213 15499 09009 26810 06512 23182

Japan 68181 31048 55894 40754 77014 55484 24794 61861

Malaysia 45584 42499 33993 16137 42698 30786 55850 29298

UK 80756 15008 76576 76385 96626 78466 69155 62834

DR Congo 18171 287238 16923 29821 07776 15582 103410 20364

Egypt 60237 30150 89778 75198 46710 27362 35750 64429

Ghana 33558 41383 52468 121599 42637 46661 27242 37347

Morocco 43059 10130 40407 33048 93997 68184 52822 45226

Nigeria 13664 95792 11543 67823 28771 186518 05394 16720

Tanzania 05952 80171 03841 15953 29832 65904 451662 08304

Tunisia 44544 17412 53335 36375 49400 17444 23759 76830



Total from BRICS 249093 214816 346886 314243 225871 203596 71952 338770

Total from Asia 328605 240154 317000 276255 267174 232328 137238 309157









Brazil and USA

19





























20
















equation (8)















21







7)



USA 09225 01146

Brazil 09120 -00219

Russia 09112 00455

India 09078 -00084

China 09089 01571



Canada 09162 00942

EU 09242 00508


Japan 09058 00983

Malaysia 08912 -00356

UK 08952 01750

DR Congo 07128 -01741

Egypt 09102 00250

Ghana 08784 -00938

Morocco 09060 -00343

Nigeria 08135 -01450

Tanzania 05483 -02800







22











USA 922486 1167212 244726

Brazil 911992 874640 -37352

Russia 911225 1000613 89388

India 907825 898242 -09583

China 908903 1248026 339122

South Africa 919256 1136053 216797

Australia 920363 648580 -271782

Canada 916215 1112171 195956

EU 924230 1029565 105335

Indonesia 870173 369507 -500665

Japan 905765 1109993 204227

Malaysia 891174 833400 -57774

UK 895223 1279940 384716

DR Congo 712762 501596 -211166

Egypt 910222 960466 50244

Ghana 878401 774361 -104040

Morocco 906003 846578 -59425

Nigeria 813482 682922 -130560

Tanzania 548338 329206 -219132




4


23

















transmitters















24









25

References











ndash 505 DOI 1023072109358






South Africa













Bank EuroSystem



httpsdoiorg101111j1468-0297200802208x

26






9780199338306





9780199683666





1023072938189


















27





101257000282803321946804











43 doi 101111apel12218






1765(97)00214-0











102(30) 10421 ndash 10426 doi 101073pnas0500298102

28


Panel 1 Total trade


Mean 84011 81358 88127 67001 77455 80301 85688 74184 72914 84264

Median 84236 79800 90033 67500 83329 75169 86593 68642 71163 83149

Maximum 97207 94582 95355 101668 98959 96559 96925 102321 97017 96790

Minimum 68070 59661 74991 21419 52033 66311 71997 45609 41361 65780

Std Dev 09103 09923 06307 25939 15215 10771 07832 18510 18889 08659

Skewness -02557 -03265 -08339 -01564 -02113 01983 -03892 02254 -01552 -00788

Kurtosis 18436 20982 24076 16568 16486 13023 17853 16793 16301 18843

Jarque-Bera 71942 55790 140960 85592 90220 136781 93660 87637 88786 57136

Probability 00274 00615 00009 00138 00110 00011 00093 00125 00118 00575

Sum 9073191 8786664 9517664 7236112 8365173 8672560 9254352 8011865 7874676 9100564

Sum Sq Dev 886614 1053555 425632 7199027 2477109 1241421 656302 3666218 3817577 802300

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 87236 83778 83738 76289 82244 86661 78667 79968 86786 85707

Median 87044 84389 82930 73778 83385 86057 79551 77917 88201 86262

Maximum 95578 94754 98656 93881 95886 96149 101364 94617 95788 95813

Minimum 77730 59370 71394 59040 66530 73517 55142 63446 74210 70590

Std Dev 05861 09711 08697 11261 10013 07122 14826 10113 06881 07874

Skewness -01509 -07693 00520 00961 -00788 -03648 00245 00168 -05261 -05221

Kurtosis 16540 25582 15010 14196 14106 19515 16529 15297 18919 20504

Jarque-Bera 85624 115304 101596 114054 114789 73429 81769 97338 105077 89641

Probability 00138 00031 00062 00033 00032 00254 00168 00077 00052 00113

Sum 9421434 9048058 9043667 8239173 8882388 9359360 8495988 8636512 9372902 9256322

Sum Sq Dev 367539 1009027 809327 1356855 1072816 542746 2351912 1094302 506657 663408

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

29

Panel 2 Exports


Mean 43295 41726 44997 33564 39203 39204 42884 37423 36712 41902

Median 43989 42513 46369 33563 40228 37215 43260 34893 36168 41063

Maximum 49267 47480 48047 50647 51078 48075 48591 52280 49347 48121

Minimum 35181 32658 38487 10999 28248 31282 35764 22685 20866 32299

Std Dev 03567 04627 02889 12951 07307 05704 03974 09473 09485 04404

Skewness -05126 -03390 -11139 -01593 01003 01444 -03788 02615 -01339 -00785

Kurtosis 24040 16695 28948 16237 17569 13333 18292 17687 15771 19101

Jarque-Bera 63277 100352 223840 89813 71350 128756 87513 80535 94336 54568

Probability 00423 00066 00000 00112 00282 00016 00126 00178 00089 00653

Sum 4675847 4506379 4859645 3624899 4233933 4234076 4631435 4041731 3964876 4525383

Sum Sq Dev 136178 229032 89333 1794823 571317 348181 168996 960184 962699 207557

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 42639 41893 42189 40448 42248 44177 39647 39949 43572 42808

Median 42484 42653 42154 38822 43018 44454 41144 39034 43987 42616

Maximum 47407 47004 48937 48585 47489 47584 52432 47544 47638 47884

Minimum 36895 30077 36326 33208 34602 38788 25067 31643 37575 35685

Std Dev 03435 04889 04158 05011 03967 02711 07820 04997 03222 03643

Skewness -00975 -08534 -00141 03327 -03128 -05993 -02009 -00408 -05455 -02672

Kurtosis 15123 25749 15233 15819 16434 21907 19619 15902 19928 19945

Jarque-Bera 101311 139237 98169 110416 100430 94126 55756 89743 99206 58349

Probability 00063 00009 00074 00040 00066 00090 00616 00113 00070 00541

Sum 4605043 4524443 4556463 4368366 4562831 4771111 4281869 4314453 4705765 4623307

Sum Sq Dev 126277 255735 184992 268627 168392 78665 654348 267198 111068 141975

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

30

Panel 3 Imports


Mean 40716 39632 43130 33437 38252 41097 42805 36761 36202 42363

Median 40293 38797 43425 33938 42632 38025 43333 33749 34995 42524

Maximum 48275 47789 47365 51059 47958 48484 48334 50553 48606 48670

Minimum 31854 27002 36458 10124 23431 34572 36232 22924 19763 33482

Std Dev 05623 05535 03511 13000 08121 05130 03861 09070 09426 04291

Skewness -01054 -02950 -05179 -01564 -04266 02822 -03998 01867 -01796 -00986

Kurtosis 16142 23579 19916 16996 17030 13341 17464 15966 16997 18396

Jarque-Bera 88414 34218 94030 80500 108455 139220 99495 94901 81891 62349

Probability 00120 01807 00091 00179 00044 00009 00069 00087 00167 00443

Sum 4397345 4280285 4658019 3611214 4131240 4438484 4622917 3970134 3909800 4575180

Sum Sq Dev 338298 327825 131914 1808338 705702 281581 159501 880160 950711 197015

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 44596 41885 41548 35841 39996 42484 39020 40019 43214 42898

Median 44561 41759 40821 35106 40211 41620 38407 38883 44214 44011

Maximum 48381 47750 49720 46132 49229 48587 49650 47288 48210 47980

Minimum 40342 29293 35068 24090 30390 34645 29905 31802 36600 34622

Std Dev 02461 04854 04568 06666 06219 04457 07157 05136 03670 04301

Skewness -02384 -06748 01142 00167 00316 -02192 02042 00811 -05114 -06862

Kurtosis 19290 25254 14961 15951 14596 18055 14998 14947 18138 20792

Jarque-Bera 61848 92090 104121 88865 106955 72860 108786 103152 110391 122905

Probability 00454 00100 00055 00118 00048 00262 00043 00058 00040 00021

Sum 4816391 4523614 4487204 3870807 4319557 4588249 4214119 4322059 4667138 4633015

Sum Sq Dev 64784 252086 223300 475453 413775 212507 548102 282235 144087 197896

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

31


Panel 1 Total Trade

Panel 2 Exports

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Panel 3 Imports


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level Critical

value at 5

PP Test stat at

1st Diff

Critical value at 5


Australia -2087649 -3452358 -5511474 -3452764 I(1)

Brazil -151073 -3452358 -4815699 -3452764 I(1)

Canada -1688886 -3452358 -4919794 -3452764 I(1)

China -0761713 -3452358 -4666041 -3452764 I(1)

DRCongo -2701397 -3452358 -4969701 -3452764 I(1)

Egypt -1110372 -3452358 -4587926 -3452764 I(1)

EU -2479035 -3452358 -4796753 -3452764 I(1)

Ghana -1789434 -3452358 -4749838 -3452764 I(1)

India -0176913 -3452358 -5580811 -3452764 I(1)

Indonesia -1940294 -3452358 -7723706 -3452764 I(1)

Japan -27304 -3452358 -4666113 -3452764 I(1)

Malaysia -1798537 -3452358 -5140808 -3452764 I(1)

Morocco -3427262 -3452358 -5251978 -3452764 I(1)

Nigeria -1885798 -3452358 -6573952 -3452764 I(1)

Russia -2427019 -3452358 -4584745 -3452764 I(1)

Safrica -2459347 -3452358 -5061753 -3452764 I(1)

Tanzania -2080362 -3452358 -4639207 -3452764 I(1)

Tunisia -2521464 -3452358 -4922059 -3452764 I(1)

UK -292419 -3452358 -4914527 -3452764 I(1)



34


Panel 1 Trace test



None 08119 20372650 7605409 00000

At most 1 07484 18618330 6950496 00000

At most 2 06943 17169350 6409570 00000

At most 3 06896 15925080 5945066 00000

At most 4 06813 14696730 5486505 00000

At most 5 06751 13496030 5038266 00000

At most 6 06619 12315570 4597583 00000

At most 7 06605 11176950 4172519 00000

At most 8 06570 10042670 3749076 00000

At most 9 06534 8919101 3220692 00000

At most 10 06439 7806611 2731889 00000

At most 11 06424 6722533 2282979 00001

At most 12 06365 5642802 1874701 00000

At most 13 06312 4580251 1505585 00000

At most 14 06183 3532980 1177082 00000

At most 15 05059 2521643 888038 00000

At most 16 04229 1781345 638761 00000

At most 17 03477 1204084 429153 00000

At most 18 03308 755525 258721 00000

At most 19 02723 333740 125180 00000



Max-Eigen Stat


None 08119 1754311 1262691 00000

At most 1 07484 1448984 1042928 00000

At most 2 06943 1244273 895584 00000

At most 3 06896 1228346 884120 00000

At most 4 06813 1200704 864224 00000

At most 5 06751 1180455 849650 00000

At most 6 06619 1138626 819543 00000

At most 7 06605 1134280 816415 00000

At most 8 06570 1123565 808703 00000

At most 9 06534 1112489 748375 00000

At most 10 06439 1084078 688121 00000

At most 11 06424 1079731 627522 00000

35

At most 12 06365 1062552 567052 00000

At most 13 06312 1047271 505999 00000

At most 14 06183 1011337 444972 00000

At most 15 05059 740298 383310 00000

At most 16 04229 577261 321183 00000

At most 17 03477 448558 258232 00001

At most 18 03308 421785 193870 00000

At most 19 02723 333740 125180 00000

Source Authors

36






0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

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100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Pe

rce

nta

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)

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37





USA 75340 31220 52535 24920 32451 80425 16142 58582

Brazil 70609 08813 89311 04341 118017 31421 34896 70440

Russia 77612 125327 110425 34878 37666 32531 20684 95616

India 37554 88615 28643 68745 14462 45156 27108 20011

China 72605 55905 65828 98491 44992 74646 19369 79720

South Africa 97203 36750 72784 35206 31078 59433 25869 68574

Australia 11614 44655 02851 08205 109096 02585 32873 15055

Canada 73007 73293 50845 17185 57174 54735 08255 60655

EU 84055 25762 66141 26268 48995 68512 12978 68320

Indonesia 19769 24314 01169 80320 18449 16285 14550 05139

Japan 85308 40028 55534 22141 62552 85835 16891 70244

Malaysia 56649 70935 37736 31557 26228 67378 19406 37956

UK 53469 16542 64573 110048 19054 107249 55380 45530

DR Congo 29744 215520 39112 71369 09432 26191 07574 32377

Egypt 43495 37493 140244 17884 31158 27479 80075 60913

Ghana 03332 39604 21476 261490 10461 04486 12166 24795

Morocco 26742 12945 28298 04647 232156 27901 47621 48632

Nigeria 30411 05806 22706 64205 14887 130388 42022 25243

Tanzania 03455 10693 03545 11170 24621 31812 501363 06036

Tunisia 48028 35778 46245 06928 57070 25551 04778 106163



Total from BRICS 258380 315410 366990 241662 246216 243188 127926 334361

Total from Asia 349497 405125 299335 336134 204349 321832 118008 308685



38




USA 84417 27346 64937 08671 58633 45316 50364 08786

Brazil 62986 17990 52082 67154 42216 23105 79339 53891

Russia 80149 22871 85737 59520 44582 03436 72180 08594

India 24108 88781 32734 41954 80329 59152 35292 31134

China 57369 67788 51214 97239 36961 03302 48212 15927

South Africa 96491 23300 70515 22174 37526 16513 58827 15241

Australia 29237 67747 29516 62979 69457 03181 43946 24635

Canada 68897 31125 55227 47717 82931 07959 61205 05466

EU 71382 41920 40932 09740 82114 44444 71835 16233

Indonesia 45443 03361 37592 03145 24308 04855 20374 05870

Japan 67811 27701 61483 42867 46307 37472 64150 53856

Malaysia 57080 08193 56191 27331 61632 42365 26281 25684

UK 79705 08899 57763 09308 18636 75911 39259 30355

DR Congo 09940 314128 04962 51581 29301 07936 32248 94814

Egypt 33338 15688 113752 57598 34201 18514 40609 16733

Ghana 14299 25910 45405 243033 14637 60390 36649 10144

Morocco 29828 91510 32439 50298 136523 28312 64231 34121

Nigeria 16423 06604 31183 17516 07315 390801 09295 68504

Tunisia 40701 34480 50979 63742 67218 35759 117458 38775

Tanzania 30396 74657 25357 16435 25175 91275 28247 441238



Total from BRICS 224613 220729 292282 288040 241613 105508 293849 124787

Total from Asia 331961 218695 324952 272055 294119 150583 266489 141065



39




USA 09188 00959 09065 00856

Brazil 08344 01108 08742 00260

Russia 08388 02094 08924 00929

India 09000 -01139 08413 -00254

China 09102 01438 08912 00402

South Africa 09028 00416 09035 00097

Australia 07105 -02842 08673 -00439

Canada 08991 00946 08986 01122

EU 09121 01077 08971 00713

Indonesia 07591 -03108 08369 -02587

Japan 08998 01361 08803 00883

Malaysia 09000 00528 08364 00472

UK 08870 00649 08808 -00493

DR Congo 07845 -00328 06859 -00974

Egypt 08598 -00230 08862 -01441

Ghana 07385 -03746 07570 -01304

Morocco 07678 -00723 08635 01011

Nigeria 08696 -01538 06092 -02776

Tanzania 04986 -03598 05588 -00770


40




USA 918838 1116203 197365 906516 1080837 174321

Brazil 834405 1048823 214418 874223 922305 48081

Russia 838838 1301518 462681 892421 1076102 183681

India 900031 715701 -184330 841338 842608 01270

China 910213 1216863 306650 891159 966746 75587

South Africa 902797 982282 79485 903509 923706 20197

Australia 710525 395694 -314831 867260 798447 -68813

Canada 899143 1089583 190440 898639 1131561 232923

EU 912144 1134632 222487 897115 1036992 139877

Indonesia 759059 405570 -353488 836906 492962 -343944

Japan 899771 1184811 285039 880287 1054533 174246

Malaysia 899995 1001143 101148 836384 922360 85975

UK 887018 1011048 124029 880782 799256 -81526

DR Congo 784480 738784 -45696 685872 576096 -109776

Egypt 859756 838059 -21696 886248 665117 -221131

Ghana 738510 364252 -374258 756967 607614 -149354

Morocco 767844 666083 -101761 863477 1066309 202831

Nigeria 869612 638121 -231491 609199 351031 -258168

Tanzania 498637 239716 -258921 558762 535112 -23650


6












portfolio













to shocks to the US






7
























model







8






























9



















this study












10





























11


as follows

119937120061 = 120630119963 + 120509120051119937120061minus120051120057120051=120783 + 120634120061 (1)















119918119917119916119933119915 119937119946120061 120634119947120061 119919 = 119941119946119947119944119919

= 120648120634119947119947minus120783 119942119946

prime120495119945120506120634119942119947 sup2119919minus120783119945=120782

119942119946prime120495119945120506120634120495119945

prime 119942119946 119919minus120783119945=120782

(3)









12








(NGFEVDs) given by2

119863 119892 = 119889 119894119895119892 where 119889 119894119895

119892=

119889119894119895119892

119889119894119895119892119873

119895=1

119889119894119895119892

= 119918119917119916119933119915 119937119946120061 120634119947120061 119919 (4)

By construction 119889 119894119895119892119873

119895=1 = 1 and 119889 119894119895119892119873


















that 119863119892119867 and 119889119894119895119892119867


respectively

13



119937120783

⋯ 1198891119895

119873

119895=1 119895 ne 1

119937120784

⋯ 1198892119895

119873

119895=1 119895 ne 2

⋮ ⋮ ⋮ ⋱

⋮ ⋮

119937119925

⋯ 119889119873119895

119873

119895=1 119895 ne 119873

To Others

1198891198941

119873

119894=1

119894 ne 1

1198891198942

119873

119894=1

119894 ne 2

⋯ 119889119894119873

119873

119894=1

119894 ne N

1

119873 119889119894119895

119873

119894 119895=1 119894 ne 119895











119919119947 = 119941119947119947 (5)






14





119917119947 = 119941119947119946119925119946=120783119946ne119947 (6)



by 119931119947) as

119931119947 = 119941119946119947119925119946=120783119946ne119947 (7)






119925119947 = 119931119947 minus 119917119947 (8)












119931119931119923119920 = 120783

119925 119917119947

119925119947=120783 =

120783

119925 119931119947

119925119947=120783 (9)

15










defined as

119926119947119919 =

119917119947

119919119947+ 119917119947 forall 119947 = 120783 120784 hellip 119925 (10)






119920119947119919 =

119925119947

119931119947+119917119947 forall 119947 = 120783 120784 hellip 119925 (11)






119919) in the





point (11)


16

















global economy















17
























0

20

40

60

80

100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Pe

rce

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)

Horizon

18








USA 71778 29440 61788 42154 74728 43927 18340 60843

Brazil 58032 19932 55790 44390 33250 42150 14919 67961

Russia 66697 31216 64970 49067 35979 32582 25549 72983

India 55713 60962 72008 64639 46561 32564 08157 46453

China 68649 57823 73921 90160 55913 54103 16375 75379

South Africa 80744 44883 80196 65987 54168 42197 06952 75993

Australia 27148 31751 25479 38758 25946 44026 26291 34948

Canada 65383 41541 57408 37902 73538 47009 14725 55939

EU 68368 15015 57468 38353 75445 42242 12341 63107

Indonesia 23779 16606 16213 15499 09009 26810 06512 23182

Japan 68181 31048 55894 40754 77014 55484 24794 61861

Malaysia 45584 42499 33993 16137 42698 30786 55850 29298

UK 80756 15008 76576 76385 96626 78466 69155 62834

DR Congo 18171 287238 16923 29821 07776 15582 103410 20364

Egypt 60237 30150 89778 75198 46710 27362 35750 64429

Ghana 33558 41383 52468 121599 42637 46661 27242 37347

Morocco 43059 10130 40407 33048 93997 68184 52822 45226

Nigeria 13664 95792 11543 67823 28771 186518 05394 16720

Tanzania 05952 80171 03841 15953 29832 65904 451662 08304

Tunisia 44544 17412 53335 36375 49400 17444 23759 76830



Total from BRICS 249093 214816 346886 314243 225871 203596 71952 338770

Total from Asia 328605 240154 317000 276255 267174 232328 137238 309157









Brazil and USA

19





























20
















equation (8)















21







7)



USA 09225 01146

Brazil 09120 -00219

Russia 09112 00455

India 09078 -00084

China 09089 01571



Canada 09162 00942

EU 09242 00508


Japan 09058 00983

Malaysia 08912 -00356

UK 08952 01750

DR Congo 07128 -01741

Egypt 09102 00250

Ghana 08784 -00938

Morocco 09060 -00343

Nigeria 08135 -01450

Tanzania 05483 -02800







22











USA 922486 1167212 244726

Brazil 911992 874640 -37352

Russia 911225 1000613 89388

India 907825 898242 -09583

China 908903 1248026 339122

South Africa 919256 1136053 216797

Australia 920363 648580 -271782

Canada 916215 1112171 195956

EU 924230 1029565 105335

Indonesia 870173 369507 -500665

Japan 905765 1109993 204227

Malaysia 891174 833400 -57774

UK 895223 1279940 384716

DR Congo 712762 501596 -211166

Egypt 910222 960466 50244

Ghana 878401 774361 -104040

Morocco 906003 846578 -59425

Nigeria 813482 682922 -130560

Tanzania 548338 329206 -219132




4


23

















transmitters















24









25

References











ndash 505 DOI 1023072109358






South Africa













Bank EuroSystem



httpsdoiorg101111j1468-0297200802208x

26






9780199338306





9780199683666





1023072938189


















27





101257000282803321946804











43 doi 101111apel12218






1765(97)00214-0











102(30) 10421 ndash 10426 doi 101073pnas0500298102

28


Panel 1 Total trade


Mean 84011 81358 88127 67001 77455 80301 85688 74184 72914 84264

Median 84236 79800 90033 67500 83329 75169 86593 68642 71163 83149

Maximum 97207 94582 95355 101668 98959 96559 96925 102321 97017 96790

Minimum 68070 59661 74991 21419 52033 66311 71997 45609 41361 65780

Std Dev 09103 09923 06307 25939 15215 10771 07832 18510 18889 08659

Skewness -02557 -03265 -08339 -01564 -02113 01983 -03892 02254 -01552 -00788

Kurtosis 18436 20982 24076 16568 16486 13023 17853 16793 16301 18843

Jarque-Bera 71942 55790 140960 85592 90220 136781 93660 87637 88786 57136

Probability 00274 00615 00009 00138 00110 00011 00093 00125 00118 00575

Sum 9073191 8786664 9517664 7236112 8365173 8672560 9254352 8011865 7874676 9100564

Sum Sq Dev 886614 1053555 425632 7199027 2477109 1241421 656302 3666218 3817577 802300

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 87236 83778 83738 76289 82244 86661 78667 79968 86786 85707

Median 87044 84389 82930 73778 83385 86057 79551 77917 88201 86262

Maximum 95578 94754 98656 93881 95886 96149 101364 94617 95788 95813

Minimum 77730 59370 71394 59040 66530 73517 55142 63446 74210 70590

Std Dev 05861 09711 08697 11261 10013 07122 14826 10113 06881 07874

Skewness -01509 -07693 00520 00961 -00788 -03648 00245 00168 -05261 -05221

Kurtosis 16540 25582 15010 14196 14106 19515 16529 15297 18919 20504

Jarque-Bera 85624 115304 101596 114054 114789 73429 81769 97338 105077 89641

Probability 00138 00031 00062 00033 00032 00254 00168 00077 00052 00113

Sum 9421434 9048058 9043667 8239173 8882388 9359360 8495988 8636512 9372902 9256322

Sum Sq Dev 367539 1009027 809327 1356855 1072816 542746 2351912 1094302 506657 663408

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

29

Panel 2 Exports


Mean 43295 41726 44997 33564 39203 39204 42884 37423 36712 41902

Median 43989 42513 46369 33563 40228 37215 43260 34893 36168 41063

Maximum 49267 47480 48047 50647 51078 48075 48591 52280 49347 48121

Minimum 35181 32658 38487 10999 28248 31282 35764 22685 20866 32299

Std Dev 03567 04627 02889 12951 07307 05704 03974 09473 09485 04404

Skewness -05126 -03390 -11139 -01593 01003 01444 -03788 02615 -01339 -00785

Kurtosis 24040 16695 28948 16237 17569 13333 18292 17687 15771 19101

Jarque-Bera 63277 100352 223840 89813 71350 128756 87513 80535 94336 54568

Probability 00423 00066 00000 00112 00282 00016 00126 00178 00089 00653

Sum 4675847 4506379 4859645 3624899 4233933 4234076 4631435 4041731 3964876 4525383

Sum Sq Dev 136178 229032 89333 1794823 571317 348181 168996 960184 962699 207557

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 42639 41893 42189 40448 42248 44177 39647 39949 43572 42808

Median 42484 42653 42154 38822 43018 44454 41144 39034 43987 42616

Maximum 47407 47004 48937 48585 47489 47584 52432 47544 47638 47884

Minimum 36895 30077 36326 33208 34602 38788 25067 31643 37575 35685

Std Dev 03435 04889 04158 05011 03967 02711 07820 04997 03222 03643

Skewness -00975 -08534 -00141 03327 -03128 -05993 -02009 -00408 -05455 -02672

Kurtosis 15123 25749 15233 15819 16434 21907 19619 15902 19928 19945

Jarque-Bera 101311 139237 98169 110416 100430 94126 55756 89743 99206 58349

Probability 00063 00009 00074 00040 00066 00090 00616 00113 00070 00541

Sum 4605043 4524443 4556463 4368366 4562831 4771111 4281869 4314453 4705765 4623307

Sum Sq Dev 126277 255735 184992 268627 168392 78665 654348 267198 111068 141975

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

30

Panel 3 Imports


Mean 40716 39632 43130 33437 38252 41097 42805 36761 36202 42363

Median 40293 38797 43425 33938 42632 38025 43333 33749 34995 42524

Maximum 48275 47789 47365 51059 47958 48484 48334 50553 48606 48670

Minimum 31854 27002 36458 10124 23431 34572 36232 22924 19763 33482

Std Dev 05623 05535 03511 13000 08121 05130 03861 09070 09426 04291

Skewness -01054 -02950 -05179 -01564 -04266 02822 -03998 01867 -01796 -00986

Kurtosis 16142 23579 19916 16996 17030 13341 17464 15966 16997 18396

Jarque-Bera 88414 34218 94030 80500 108455 139220 99495 94901 81891 62349

Probability 00120 01807 00091 00179 00044 00009 00069 00087 00167 00443

Sum 4397345 4280285 4658019 3611214 4131240 4438484 4622917 3970134 3909800 4575180

Sum Sq Dev 338298 327825 131914 1808338 705702 281581 159501 880160 950711 197015

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 44596 41885 41548 35841 39996 42484 39020 40019 43214 42898

Median 44561 41759 40821 35106 40211 41620 38407 38883 44214 44011

Maximum 48381 47750 49720 46132 49229 48587 49650 47288 48210 47980

Minimum 40342 29293 35068 24090 30390 34645 29905 31802 36600 34622

Std Dev 02461 04854 04568 06666 06219 04457 07157 05136 03670 04301

Skewness -02384 -06748 01142 00167 00316 -02192 02042 00811 -05114 -06862

Kurtosis 19290 25254 14961 15951 14596 18055 14998 14947 18138 20792

Jarque-Bera 61848 92090 104121 88865 106955 72860 108786 103152 110391 122905

Probability 00454 00100 00055 00118 00048 00262 00043 00058 00040 00021

Sum 4816391 4523614 4487204 3870807 4319557 4588249 4214119 4322059 4667138 4633015

Sum Sq Dev 64784 252086 223300 475453 413775 212507 548102 282235 144087 197896

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

31


Panel 1 Total Trade

Panel 2 Exports

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Panel 3 Imports


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level Critical

value at 5

PP Test stat at

1st Diff

Critical value at 5


Australia -2087649 -3452358 -5511474 -3452764 I(1)

Brazil -151073 -3452358 -4815699 -3452764 I(1)

Canada -1688886 -3452358 -4919794 -3452764 I(1)

China -0761713 -3452358 -4666041 -3452764 I(1)

DRCongo -2701397 -3452358 -4969701 -3452764 I(1)

Egypt -1110372 -3452358 -4587926 -3452764 I(1)

EU -2479035 -3452358 -4796753 -3452764 I(1)

Ghana -1789434 -3452358 -4749838 -3452764 I(1)

India -0176913 -3452358 -5580811 -3452764 I(1)

Indonesia -1940294 -3452358 -7723706 -3452764 I(1)

Japan -27304 -3452358 -4666113 -3452764 I(1)

Malaysia -1798537 -3452358 -5140808 -3452764 I(1)

Morocco -3427262 -3452358 -5251978 -3452764 I(1)

Nigeria -1885798 -3452358 -6573952 -3452764 I(1)

Russia -2427019 -3452358 -4584745 -3452764 I(1)

Safrica -2459347 -3452358 -5061753 -3452764 I(1)

Tanzania -2080362 -3452358 -4639207 -3452764 I(1)

Tunisia -2521464 -3452358 -4922059 -3452764 I(1)

UK -292419 -3452358 -4914527 -3452764 I(1)



34


Panel 1 Trace test



None 08119 20372650 7605409 00000

At most 1 07484 18618330 6950496 00000

At most 2 06943 17169350 6409570 00000

At most 3 06896 15925080 5945066 00000

At most 4 06813 14696730 5486505 00000

At most 5 06751 13496030 5038266 00000

At most 6 06619 12315570 4597583 00000

At most 7 06605 11176950 4172519 00000

At most 8 06570 10042670 3749076 00000

At most 9 06534 8919101 3220692 00000

At most 10 06439 7806611 2731889 00000

At most 11 06424 6722533 2282979 00001

At most 12 06365 5642802 1874701 00000

At most 13 06312 4580251 1505585 00000

At most 14 06183 3532980 1177082 00000

At most 15 05059 2521643 888038 00000

At most 16 04229 1781345 638761 00000

At most 17 03477 1204084 429153 00000

At most 18 03308 755525 258721 00000

At most 19 02723 333740 125180 00000



Max-Eigen Stat


None 08119 1754311 1262691 00000

At most 1 07484 1448984 1042928 00000

At most 2 06943 1244273 895584 00000

At most 3 06896 1228346 884120 00000

At most 4 06813 1200704 864224 00000

At most 5 06751 1180455 849650 00000

At most 6 06619 1138626 819543 00000

At most 7 06605 1134280 816415 00000

At most 8 06570 1123565 808703 00000

At most 9 06534 1112489 748375 00000

At most 10 06439 1084078 688121 00000

At most 11 06424 1079731 627522 00000

35

At most 12 06365 1062552 567052 00000

At most 13 06312 1047271 505999 00000

At most 14 06183 1011337 444972 00000

At most 15 05059 740298 383310 00000

At most 16 04229 577261 321183 00000

At most 17 03477 448558 258232 00001

At most 18 03308 421785 193870 00000

At most 19 02723 333740 125180 00000

Source Authors

36






0

10

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100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Pe

rce

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)

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37





USA 75340 31220 52535 24920 32451 80425 16142 58582

Brazil 70609 08813 89311 04341 118017 31421 34896 70440

Russia 77612 125327 110425 34878 37666 32531 20684 95616

India 37554 88615 28643 68745 14462 45156 27108 20011

China 72605 55905 65828 98491 44992 74646 19369 79720

South Africa 97203 36750 72784 35206 31078 59433 25869 68574

Australia 11614 44655 02851 08205 109096 02585 32873 15055

Canada 73007 73293 50845 17185 57174 54735 08255 60655

EU 84055 25762 66141 26268 48995 68512 12978 68320

Indonesia 19769 24314 01169 80320 18449 16285 14550 05139

Japan 85308 40028 55534 22141 62552 85835 16891 70244

Malaysia 56649 70935 37736 31557 26228 67378 19406 37956

UK 53469 16542 64573 110048 19054 107249 55380 45530

DR Congo 29744 215520 39112 71369 09432 26191 07574 32377

Egypt 43495 37493 140244 17884 31158 27479 80075 60913

Ghana 03332 39604 21476 261490 10461 04486 12166 24795

Morocco 26742 12945 28298 04647 232156 27901 47621 48632

Nigeria 30411 05806 22706 64205 14887 130388 42022 25243

Tanzania 03455 10693 03545 11170 24621 31812 501363 06036

Tunisia 48028 35778 46245 06928 57070 25551 04778 106163



Total from BRICS 258380 315410 366990 241662 246216 243188 127926 334361

Total from Asia 349497 405125 299335 336134 204349 321832 118008 308685



38




USA 84417 27346 64937 08671 58633 45316 50364 08786

Brazil 62986 17990 52082 67154 42216 23105 79339 53891

Russia 80149 22871 85737 59520 44582 03436 72180 08594

India 24108 88781 32734 41954 80329 59152 35292 31134

China 57369 67788 51214 97239 36961 03302 48212 15927

South Africa 96491 23300 70515 22174 37526 16513 58827 15241

Australia 29237 67747 29516 62979 69457 03181 43946 24635

Canada 68897 31125 55227 47717 82931 07959 61205 05466

EU 71382 41920 40932 09740 82114 44444 71835 16233

Indonesia 45443 03361 37592 03145 24308 04855 20374 05870

Japan 67811 27701 61483 42867 46307 37472 64150 53856

Malaysia 57080 08193 56191 27331 61632 42365 26281 25684

UK 79705 08899 57763 09308 18636 75911 39259 30355

DR Congo 09940 314128 04962 51581 29301 07936 32248 94814

Egypt 33338 15688 113752 57598 34201 18514 40609 16733

Ghana 14299 25910 45405 243033 14637 60390 36649 10144

Morocco 29828 91510 32439 50298 136523 28312 64231 34121

Nigeria 16423 06604 31183 17516 07315 390801 09295 68504

Tunisia 40701 34480 50979 63742 67218 35759 117458 38775

Tanzania 30396 74657 25357 16435 25175 91275 28247 441238



Total from BRICS 224613 220729 292282 288040 241613 105508 293849 124787

Total from Asia 331961 218695 324952 272055 294119 150583 266489 141065



39




USA 09188 00959 09065 00856

Brazil 08344 01108 08742 00260

Russia 08388 02094 08924 00929

India 09000 -01139 08413 -00254

China 09102 01438 08912 00402

South Africa 09028 00416 09035 00097

Australia 07105 -02842 08673 -00439

Canada 08991 00946 08986 01122

EU 09121 01077 08971 00713

Indonesia 07591 -03108 08369 -02587

Japan 08998 01361 08803 00883

Malaysia 09000 00528 08364 00472

UK 08870 00649 08808 -00493

DR Congo 07845 -00328 06859 -00974

Egypt 08598 -00230 08862 -01441

Ghana 07385 -03746 07570 -01304

Morocco 07678 -00723 08635 01011

Nigeria 08696 -01538 06092 -02776

Tanzania 04986 -03598 05588 -00770


40




USA 918838 1116203 197365 906516 1080837 174321

Brazil 834405 1048823 214418 874223 922305 48081

Russia 838838 1301518 462681 892421 1076102 183681

India 900031 715701 -184330 841338 842608 01270

China 910213 1216863 306650 891159 966746 75587

South Africa 902797 982282 79485 903509 923706 20197

Australia 710525 395694 -314831 867260 798447 -68813

Canada 899143 1089583 190440 898639 1131561 232923

EU 912144 1134632 222487 897115 1036992 139877

Indonesia 759059 405570 -353488 836906 492962 -343944

Japan 899771 1184811 285039 880287 1054533 174246

Malaysia 899995 1001143 101148 836384 922360 85975

UK 887018 1011048 124029 880782 799256 -81526

DR Congo 784480 738784 -45696 685872 576096 -109776

Egypt 859756 838059 -21696 886248 665117 -221131

Ghana 738510 364252 -374258 756967 607614 -149354

Morocco 767844 666083 -101761 863477 1066309 202831

Nigeria 869612 638121 -231491 609199 351031 -258168

Tanzania 498637 239716 -258921 558762 535112 -23650


7
























model







8






























9



















this study












10





























11


as follows

119937120061 = 120630119963 + 120509120051119937120061minus120051120057120051=120783 + 120634120061 (1)















119918119917119916119933119915 119937119946120061 120634119947120061 119919 = 119941119946119947119944119919

= 120648120634119947119947minus120783 119942119946

prime120495119945120506120634119942119947 sup2119919minus120783119945=120782

119942119946prime120495119945120506120634120495119945

prime 119942119946 119919minus120783119945=120782

(3)









12








(NGFEVDs) given by2

119863 119892 = 119889 119894119895119892 where 119889 119894119895

119892=

119889119894119895119892

119889119894119895119892119873

119895=1

119889119894119895119892

= 119918119917119916119933119915 119937119946120061 120634119947120061 119919 (4)

By construction 119889 119894119895119892119873

119895=1 = 1 and 119889 119894119895119892119873


















that 119863119892119867 and 119889119894119895119892119867


respectively

13



119937120783

⋯ 1198891119895

119873

119895=1 119895 ne 1

119937120784

⋯ 1198892119895

119873

119895=1 119895 ne 2

⋮ ⋮ ⋮ ⋱

⋮ ⋮

119937119925

⋯ 119889119873119895

119873

119895=1 119895 ne 119873

To Others

1198891198941

119873

119894=1

119894 ne 1

1198891198942

119873

119894=1

119894 ne 2

⋯ 119889119894119873

119873

119894=1

119894 ne N

1

119873 119889119894119895

119873

119894 119895=1 119894 ne 119895











119919119947 = 119941119947119947 (5)






14





119917119947 = 119941119947119946119925119946=120783119946ne119947 (6)



by 119931119947) as

119931119947 = 119941119946119947119925119946=120783119946ne119947 (7)






119925119947 = 119931119947 minus 119917119947 (8)












119931119931119923119920 = 120783

119925 119917119947

119925119947=120783 =

120783

119925 119931119947

119925119947=120783 (9)

15










defined as

119926119947119919 =

119917119947

119919119947+ 119917119947 forall 119947 = 120783 120784 hellip 119925 (10)






119920119947119919 =

119925119947

119931119947+119917119947 forall 119947 = 120783 120784 hellip 119925 (11)






119919) in the





point (11)


16

















global economy















17
























0

20

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Pe

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)

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18








USA 71778 29440 61788 42154 74728 43927 18340 60843

Brazil 58032 19932 55790 44390 33250 42150 14919 67961

Russia 66697 31216 64970 49067 35979 32582 25549 72983

India 55713 60962 72008 64639 46561 32564 08157 46453

China 68649 57823 73921 90160 55913 54103 16375 75379

South Africa 80744 44883 80196 65987 54168 42197 06952 75993

Australia 27148 31751 25479 38758 25946 44026 26291 34948

Canada 65383 41541 57408 37902 73538 47009 14725 55939

EU 68368 15015 57468 38353 75445 42242 12341 63107

Indonesia 23779 16606 16213 15499 09009 26810 06512 23182

Japan 68181 31048 55894 40754 77014 55484 24794 61861

Malaysia 45584 42499 33993 16137 42698 30786 55850 29298

UK 80756 15008 76576 76385 96626 78466 69155 62834

DR Congo 18171 287238 16923 29821 07776 15582 103410 20364

Egypt 60237 30150 89778 75198 46710 27362 35750 64429

Ghana 33558 41383 52468 121599 42637 46661 27242 37347

Morocco 43059 10130 40407 33048 93997 68184 52822 45226

Nigeria 13664 95792 11543 67823 28771 186518 05394 16720

Tanzania 05952 80171 03841 15953 29832 65904 451662 08304

Tunisia 44544 17412 53335 36375 49400 17444 23759 76830



Total from BRICS 249093 214816 346886 314243 225871 203596 71952 338770

Total from Asia 328605 240154 317000 276255 267174 232328 137238 309157









Brazil and USA

19





























20
















equation (8)















21







7)



USA 09225 01146

Brazil 09120 -00219

Russia 09112 00455

India 09078 -00084

China 09089 01571



Canada 09162 00942

EU 09242 00508


Japan 09058 00983

Malaysia 08912 -00356

UK 08952 01750

DR Congo 07128 -01741

Egypt 09102 00250

Ghana 08784 -00938

Morocco 09060 -00343

Nigeria 08135 -01450

Tanzania 05483 -02800







22











USA 922486 1167212 244726

Brazil 911992 874640 -37352

Russia 911225 1000613 89388

India 907825 898242 -09583

China 908903 1248026 339122

South Africa 919256 1136053 216797

Australia 920363 648580 -271782

Canada 916215 1112171 195956

EU 924230 1029565 105335

Indonesia 870173 369507 -500665

Japan 905765 1109993 204227

Malaysia 891174 833400 -57774

UK 895223 1279940 384716

DR Congo 712762 501596 -211166

Egypt 910222 960466 50244

Ghana 878401 774361 -104040

Morocco 906003 846578 -59425

Nigeria 813482 682922 -130560

Tanzania 548338 329206 -219132




4


23

















transmitters















24









25

References











ndash 505 DOI 1023072109358






South Africa













Bank EuroSystem



httpsdoiorg101111j1468-0297200802208x

26






9780199338306





9780199683666





1023072938189


















27





101257000282803321946804











43 doi 101111apel12218






1765(97)00214-0











102(30) 10421 ndash 10426 doi 101073pnas0500298102

28


Panel 1 Total trade


Mean 84011 81358 88127 67001 77455 80301 85688 74184 72914 84264

Median 84236 79800 90033 67500 83329 75169 86593 68642 71163 83149

Maximum 97207 94582 95355 101668 98959 96559 96925 102321 97017 96790

Minimum 68070 59661 74991 21419 52033 66311 71997 45609 41361 65780

Std Dev 09103 09923 06307 25939 15215 10771 07832 18510 18889 08659

Skewness -02557 -03265 -08339 -01564 -02113 01983 -03892 02254 -01552 -00788

Kurtosis 18436 20982 24076 16568 16486 13023 17853 16793 16301 18843

Jarque-Bera 71942 55790 140960 85592 90220 136781 93660 87637 88786 57136

Probability 00274 00615 00009 00138 00110 00011 00093 00125 00118 00575

Sum 9073191 8786664 9517664 7236112 8365173 8672560 9254352 8011865 7874676 9100564

Sum Sq Dev 886614 1053555 425632 7199027 2477109 1241421 656302 3666218 3817577 802300

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 87236 83778 83738 76289 82244 86661 78667 79968 86786 85707

Median 87044 84389 82930 73778 83385 86057 79551 77917 88201 86262

Maximum 95578 94754 98656 93881 95886 96149 101364 94617 95788 95813

Minimum 77730 59370 71394 59040 66530 73517 55142 63446 74210 70590

Std Dev 05861 09711 08697 11261 10013 07122 14826 10113 06881 07874

Skewness -01509 -07693 00520 00961 -00788 -03648 00245 00168 -05261 -05221

Kurtosis 16540 25582 15010 14196 14106 19515 16529 15297 18919 20504

Jarque-Bera 85624 115304 101596 114054 114789 73429 81769 97338 105077 89641

Probability 00138 00031 00062 00033 00032 00254 00168 00077 00052 00113

Sum 9421434 9048058 9043667 8239173 8882388 9359360 8495988 8636512 9372902 9256322

Sum Sq Dev 367539 1009027 809327 1356855 1072816 542746 2351912 1094302 506657 663408

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

29

Panel 2 Exports


Mean 43295 41726 44997 33564 39203 39204 42884 37423 36712 41902

Median 43989 42513 46369 33563 40228 37215 43260 34893 36168 41063

Maximum 49267 47480 48047 50647 51078 48075 48591 52280 49347 48121

Minimum 35181 32658 38487 10999 28248 31282 35764 22685 20866 32299

Std Dev 03567 04627 02889 12951 07307 05704 03974 09473 09485 04404

Skewness -05126 -03390 -11139 -01593 01003 01444 -03788 02615 -01339 -00785

Kurtosis 24040 16695 28948 16237 17569 13333 18292 17687 15771 19101

Jarque-Bera 63277 100352 223840 89813 71350 128756 87513 80535 94336 54568

Probability 00423 00066 00000 00112 00282 00016 00126 00178 00089 00653

Sum 4675847 4506379 4859645 3624899 4233933 4234076 4631435 4041731 3964876 4525383

Sum Sq Dev 136178 229032 89333 1794823 571317 348181 168996 960184 962699 207557

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 42639 41893 42189 40448 42248 44177 39647 39949 43572 42808

Median 42484 42653 42154 38822 43018 44454 41144 39034 43987 42616

Maximum 47407 47004 48937 48585 47489 47584 52432 47544 47638 47884

Minimum 36895 30077 36326 33208 34602 38788 25067 31643 37575 35685

Std Dev 03435 04889 04158 05011 03967 02711 07820 04997 03222 03643

Skewness -00975 -08534 -00141 03327 -03128 -05993 -02009 -00408 -05455 -02672

Kurtosis 15123 25749 15233 15819 16434 21907 19619 15902 19928 19945

Jarque-Bera 101311 139237 98169 110416 100430 94126 55756 89743 99206 58349

Probability 00063 00009 00074 00040 00066 00090 00616 00113 00070 00541

Sum 4605043 4524443 4556463 4368366 4562831 4771111 4281869 4314453 4705765 4623307

Sum Sq Dev 126277 255735 184992 268627 168392 78665 654348 267198 111068 141975

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

30

Panel 3 Imports


Mean 40716 39632 43130 33437 38252 41097 42805 36761 36202 42363

Median 40293 38797 43425 33938 42632 38025 43333 33749 34995 42524

Maximum 48275 47789 47365 51059 47958 48484 48334 50553 48606 48670

Minimum 31854 27002 36458 10124 23431 34572 36232 22924 19763 33482

Std Dev 05623 05535 03511 13000 08121 05130 03861 09070 09426 04291

Skewness -01054 -02950 -05179 -01564 -04266 02822 -03998 01867 -01796 -00986

Kurtosis 16142 23579 19916 16996 17030 13341 17464 15966 16997 18396

Jarque-Bera 88414 34218 94030 80500 108455 139220 99495 94901 81891 62349

Probability 00120 01807 00091 00179 00044 00009 00069 00087 00167 00443

Sum 4397345 4280285 4658019 3611214 4131240 4438484 4622917 3970134 3909800 4575180

Sum Sq Dev 338298 327825 131914 1808338 705702 281581 159501 880160 950711 197015

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 44596 41885 41548 35841 39996 42484 39020 40019 43214 42898

Median 44561 41759 40821 35106 40211 41620 38407 38883 44214 44011

Maximum 48381 47750 49720 46132 49229 48587 49650 47288 48210 47980

Minimum 40342 29293 35068 24090 30390 34645 29905 31802 36600 34622

Std Dev 02461 04854 04568 06666 06219 04457 07157 05136 03670 04301

Skewness -02384 -06748 01142 00167 00316 -02192 02042 00811 -05114 -06862

Kurtosis 19290 25254 14961 15951 14596 18055 14998 14947 18138 20792

Jarque-Bera 61848 92090 104121 88865 106955 72860 108786 103152 110391 122905

Probability 00454 00100 00055 00118 00048 00262 00043 00058 00040 00021

Sum 4816391 4523614 4487204 3870807 4319557 4588249 4214119 4322059 4667138 4633015

Sum Sq Dev 64784 252086 223300 475453 413775 212507 548102 282235 144087 197896

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

31


Panel 1 Total Trade

Panel 2 Exports

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Panel 3 Imports


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33



level Critical

value at 5

PP Test stat at

1st Diff

Critical value at 5


Australia -2087649 -3452358 -5511474 -3452764 I(1)

Brazil -151073 -3452358 -4815699 -3452764 I(1)

Canada -1688886 -3452358 -4919794 -3452764 I(1)

China -0761713 -3452358 -4666041 -3452764 I(1)

DRCongo -2701397 -3452358 -4969701 -3452764 I(1)

Egypt -1110372 -3452358 -4587926 -3452764 I(1)

EU -2479035 -3452358 -4796753 -3452764 I(1)

Ghana -1789434 -3452358 -4749838 -3452764 I(1)

India -0176913 -3452358 -5580811 -3452764 I(1)

Indonesia -1940294 -3452358 -7723706 -3452764 I(1)

Japan -27304 -3452358 -4666113 -3452764 I(1)

Malaysia -1798537 -3452358 -5140808 -3452764 I(1)

Morocco -3427262 -3452358 -5251978 -3452764 I(1)

Nigeria -1885798 -3452358 -6573952 -3452764 I(1)

Russia -2427019 -3452358 -4584745 -3452764 I(1)

Safrica -2459347 -3452358 -5061753 -3452764 I(1)

Tanzania -2080362 -3452358 -4639207 -3452764 I(1)

Tunisia -2521464 -3452358 -4922059 -3452764 I(1)

UK -292419 -3452358 -4914527 -3452764 I(1)



34


Panel 1 Trace test



None 08119 20372650 7605409 00000

At most 1 07484 18618330 6950496 00000

At most 2 06943 17169350 6409570 00000

At most 3 06896 15925080 5945066 00000

At most 4 06813 14696730 5486505 00000

At most 5 06751 13496030 5038266 00000

At most 6 06619 12315570 4597583 00000

At most 7 06605 11176950 4172519 00000

At most 8 06570 10042670 3749076 00000

At most 9 06534 8919101 3220692 00000

At most 10 06439 7806611 2731889 00000

At most 11 06424 6722533 2282979 00001

At most 12 06365 5642802 1874701 00000

At most 13 06312 4580251 1505585 00000

At most 14 06183 3532980 1177082 00000

At most 15 05059 2521643 888038 00000

At most 16 04229 1781345 638761 00000

At most 17 03477 1204084 429153 00000

At most 18 03308 755525 258721 00000

At most 19 02723 333740 125180 00000



Max-Eigen Stat


None 08119 1754311 1262691 00000

At most 1 07484 1448984 1042928 00000

At most 2 06943 1244273 895584 00000

At most 3 06896 1228346 884120 00000

At most 4 06813 1200704 864224 00000

At most 5 06751 1180455 849650 00000

At most 6 06619 1138626 819543 00000

At most 7 06605 1134280 816415 00000

At most 8 06570 1123565 808703 00000

At most 9 06534 1112489 748375 00000

At most 10 06439 1084078 688121 00000

At most 11 06424 1079731 627522 00000

35

At most 12 06365 1062552 567052 00000

At most 13 06312 1047271 505999 00000

At most 14 06183 1011337 444972 00000

At most 15 05059 740298 383310 00000

At most 16 04229 577261 321183 00000

At most 17 03477 448558 258232 00001

At most 18 03308 421785 193870 00000

At most 19 02723 333740 125180 00000

Source Authors

36






0

10

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30

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50

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100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Pe

rce

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)

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37





USA 75340 31220 52535 24920 32451 80425 16142 58582

Brazil 70609 08813 89311 04341 118017 31421 34896 70440

Russia 77612 125327 110425 34878 37666 32531 20684 95616

India 37554 88615 28643 68745 14462 45156 27108 20011

China 72605 55905 65828 98491 44992 74646 19369 79720

South Africa 97203 36750 72784 35206 31078 59433 25869 68574

Australia 11614 44655 02851 08205 109096 02585 32873 15055

Canada 73007 73293 50845 17185 57174 54735 08255 60655

EU 84055 25762 66141 26268 48995 68512 12978 68320

Indonesia 19769 24314 01169 80320 18449 16285 14550 05139

Japan 85308 40028 55534 22141 62552 85835 16891 70244

Malaysia 56649 70935 37736 31557 26228 67378 19406 37956

UK 53469 16542 64573 110048 19054 107249 55380 45530

DR Congo 29744 215520 39112 71369 09432 26191 07574 32377

Egypt 43495 37493 140244 17884 31158 27479 80075 60913

Ghana 03332 39604 21476 261490 10461 04486 12166 24795

Morocco 26742 12945 28298 04647 232156 27901 47621 48632

Nigeria 30411 05806 22706 64205 14887 130388 42022 25243

Tanzania 03455 10693 03545 11170 24621 31812 501363 06036

Tunisia 48028 35778 46245 06928 57070 25551 04778 106163



Total from BRICS 258380 315410 366990 241662 246216 243188 127926 334361

Total from Asia 349497 405125 299335 336134 204349 321832 118008 308685



38




USA 84417 27346 64937 08671 58633 45316 50364 08786

Brazil 62986 17990 52082 67154 42216 23105 79339 53891

Russia 80149 22871 85737 59520 44582 03436 72180 08594

India 24108 88781 32734 41954 80329 59152 35292 31134

China 57369 67788 51214 97239 36961 03302 48212 15927

South Africa 96491 23300 70515 22174 37526 16513 58827 15241

Australia 29237 67747 29516 62979 69457 03181 43946 24635

Canada 68897 31125 55227 47717 82931 07959 61205 05466

EU 71382 41920 40932 09740 82114 44444 71835 16233

Indonesia 45443 03361 37592 03145 24308 04855 20374 05870

Japan 67811 27701 61483 42867 46307 37472 64150 53856

Malaysia 57080 08193 56191 27331 61632 42365 26281 25684

UK 79705 08899 57763 09308 18636 75911 39259 30355

DR Congo 09940 314128 04962 51581 29301 07936 32248 94814

Egypt 33338 15688 113752 57598 34201 18514 40609 16733

Ghana 14299 25910 45405 243033 14637 60390 36649 10144

Morocco 29828 91510 32439 50298 136523 28312 64231 34121

Nigeria 16423 06604 31183 17516 07315 390801 09295 68504

Tunisia 40701 34480 50979 63742 67218 35759 117458 38775

Tanzania 30396 74657 25357 16435 25175 91275 28247 441238



Total from BRICS 224613 220729 292282 288040 241613 105508 293849 124787

Total from Asia 331961 218695 324952 272055 294119 150583 266489 141065



39




USA 09188 00959 09065 00856

Brazil 08344 01108 08742 00260

Russia 08388 02094 08924 00929

India 09000 -01139 08413 -00254

China 09102 01438 08912 00402

South Africa 09028 00416 09035 00097

Australia 07105 -02842 08673 -00439

Canada 08991 00946 08986 01122

EU 09121 01077 08971 00713

Indonesia 07591 -03108 08369 -02587

Japan 08998 01361 08803 00883

Malaysia 09000 00528 08364 00472

UK 08870 00649 08808 -00493

DR Congo 07845 -00328 06859 -00974

Egypt 08598 -00230 08862 -01441

Ghana 07385 -03746 07570 -01304

Morocco 07678 -00723 08635 01011

Nigeria 08696 -01538 06092 -02776

Tanzania 04986 -03598 05588 -00770


40




USA 918838 1116203 197365 906516 1080837 174321

Brazil 834405 1048823 214418 874223 922305 48081

Russia 838838 1301518 462681 892421 1076102 183681

India 900031 715701 -184330 841338 842608 01270

China 910213 1216863 306650 891159 966746 75587

South Africa 902797 982282 79485 903509 923706 20197

Australia 710525 395694 -314831 867260 798447 -68813

Canada 899143 1089583 190440 898639 1131561 232923

EU 912144 1134632 222487 897115 1036992 139877

Indonesia 759059 405570 -353488 836906 492962 -343944

Japan 899771 1184811 285039 880287 1054533 174246

Malaysia 899995 1001143 101148 836384 922360 85975

UK 887018 1011048 124029 880782 799256 -81526

DR Congo 784480 738784 -45696 685872 576096 -109776

Egypt 859756 838059 -21696 886248 665117 -221131

Ghana 738510 364252 -374258 756967 607614 -149354

Morocco 767844 666083 -101761 863477 1066309 202831

Nigeria 869612 638121 -231491 609199 351031 -258168

Tanzania 498637 239716 -258921 558762 535112 -23650


8






























9



















this study












10





























11


as follows

119937120061 = 120630119963 + 120509120051119937120061minus120051120057120051=120783 + 120634120061 (1)















119918119917119916119933119915 119937119946120061 120634119947120061 119919 = 119941119946119947119944119919

= 120648120634119947119947minus120783 119942119946

prime120495119945120506120634119942119947 sup2119919minus120783119945=120782

119942119946prime120495119945120506120634120495119945

prime 119942119946 119919minus120783119945=120782

(3)









12








(NGFEVDs) given by2

119863 119892 = 119889 119894119895119892 where 119889 119894119895

119892=

119889119894119895119892

119889119894119895119892119873

119895=1

119889119894119895119892

= 119918119917119916119933119915 119937119946120061 120634119947120061 119919 (4)

By construction 119889 119894119895119892119873

119895=1 = 1 and 119889 119894119895119892119873


















that 119863119892119867 and 119889119894119895119892119867


respectively

13



119937120783

⋯ 1198891119895

119873

119895=1 119895 ne 1

119937120784

⋯ 1198892119895

119873

119895=1 119895 ne 2

⋮ ⋮ ⋮ ⋱

⋮ ⋮

119937119925

⋯ 119889119873119895

119873

119895=1 119895 ne 119873

To Others

1198891198941

119873

119894=1

119894 ne 1

1198891198942

119873

119894=1

119894 ne 2

⋯ 119889119894119873

119873

119894=1

119894 ne N

1

119873 119889119894119895

119873

119894 119895=1 119894 ne 119895











119919119947 = 119941119947119947 (5)






14





119917119947 = 119941119947119946119925119946=120783119946ne119947 (6)



by 119931119947) as

119931119947 = 119941119946119947119925119946=120783119946ne119947 (7)






119925119947 = 119931119947 minus 119917119947 (8)












119931119931119923119920 = 120783

119925 119917119947

119925119947=120783 =

120783

119925 119931119947

119925119947=120783 (9)

15










defined as

119926119947119919 =

119917119947

119919119947+ 119917119947 forall 119947 = 120783 120784 hellip 119925 (10)






119920119947119919 =

119925119947

119931119947+119917119947 forall 119947 = 120783 120784 hellip 119925 (11)






119919) in the





point (11)


16

















global economy















17
























0

20

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Pe

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)

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18








USA 71778 29440 61788 42154 74728 43927 18340 60843

Brazil 58032 19932 55790 44390 33250 42150 14919 67961

Russia 66697 31216 64970 49067 35979 32582 25549 72983

India 55713 60962 72008 64639 46561 32564 08157 46453

China 68649 57823 73921 90160 55913 54103 16375 75379

South Africa 80744 44883 80196 65987 54168 42197 06952 75993

Australia 27148 31751 25479 38758 25946 44026 26291 34948

Canada 65383 41541 57408 37902 73538 47009 14725 55939

EU 68368 15015 57468 38353 75445 42242 12341 63107

Indonesia 23779 16606 16213 15499 09009 26810 06512 23182

Japan 68181 31048 55894 40754 77014 55484 24794 61861

Malaysia 45584 42499 33993 16137 42698 30786 55850 29298

UK 80756 15008 76576 76385 96626 78466 69155 62834

DR Congo 18171 287238 16923 29821 07776 15582 103410 20364

Egypt 60237 30150 89778 75198 46710 27362 35750 64429

Ghana 33558 41383 52468 121599 42637 46661 27242 37347

Morocco 43059 10130 40407 33048 93997 68184 52822 45226

Nigeria 13664 95792 11543 67823 28771 186518 05394 16720

Tanzania 05952 80171 03841 15953 29832 65904 451662 08304

Tunisia 44544 17412 53335 36375 49400 17444 23759 76830



Total from BRICS 249093 214816 346886 314243 225871 203596 71952 338770

Total from Asia 328605 240154 317000 276255 267174 232328 137238 309157









Brazil and USA

19





























20
















equation (8)















21







7)



USA 09225 01146

Brazil 09120 -00219

Russia 09112 00455

India 09078 -00084

China 09089 01571



Canada 09162 00942

EU 09242 00508


Japan 09058 00983

Malaysia 08912 -00356

UK 08952 01750

DR Congo 07128 -01741

Egypt 09102 00250

Ghana 08784 -00938

Morocco 09060 -00343

Nigeria 08135 -01450

Tanzania 05483 -02800







22











USA 922486 1167212 244726

Brazil 911992 874640 -37352

Russia 911225 1000613 89388

India 907825 898242 -09583

China 908903 1248026 339122

South Africa 919256 1136053 216797

Australia 920363 648580 -271782

Canada 916215 1112171 195956

EU 924230 1029565 105335

Indonesia 870173 369507 -500665

Japan 905765 1109993 204227

Malaysia 891174 833400 -57774

UK 895223 1279940 384716

DR Congo 712762 501596 -211166

Egypt 910222 960466 50244

Ghana 878401 774361 -104040

Morocco 906003 846578 -59425

Nigeria 813482 682922 -130560

Tanzania 548338 329206 -219132




4


23

















transmitters















24









25

References











ndash 505 DOI 1023072109358






South Africa













Bank EuroSystem



httpsdoiorg101111j1468-0297200802208x

26






9780199338306





9780199683666





1023072938189


















27





101257000282803321946804











43 doi 101111apel12218






1765(97)00214-0











102(30) 10421 ndash 10426 doi 101073pnas0500298102

28


Panel 1 Total trade


Mean 84011 81358 88127 67001 77455 80301 85688 74184 72914 84264

Median 84236 79800 90033 67500 83329 75169 86593 68642 71163 83149

Maximum 97207 94582 95355 101668 98959 96559 96925 102321 97017 96790

Minimum 68070 59661 74991 21419 52033 66311 71997 45609 41361 65780

Std Dev 09103 09923 06307 25939 15215 10771 07832 18510 18889 08659

Skewness -02557 -03265 -08339 -01564 -02113 01983 -03892 02254 -01552 -00788

Kurtosis 18436 20982 24076 16568 16486 13023 17853 16793 16301 18843

Jarque-Bera 71942 55790 140960 85592 90220 136781 93660 87637 88786 57136

Probability 00274 00615 00009 00138 00110 00011 00093 00125 00118 00575

Sum 9073191 8786664 9517664 7236112 8365173 8672560 9254352 8011865 7874676 9100564

Sum Sq Dev 886614 1053555 425632 7199027 2477109 1241421 656302 3666218 3817577 802300

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 87236 83778 83738 76289 82244 86661 78667 79968 86786 85707

Median 87044 84389 82930 73778 83385 86057 79551 77917 88201 86262

Maximum 95578 94754 98656 93881 95886 96149 101364 94617 95788 95813

Minimum 77730 59370 71394 59040 66530 73517 55142 63446 74210 70590

Std Dev 05861 09711 08697 11261 10013 07122 14826 10113 06881 07874

Skewness -01509 -07693 00520 00961 -00788 -03648 00245 00168 -05261 -05221

Kurtosis 16540 25582 15010 14196 14106 19515 16529 15297 18919 20504

Jarque-Bera 85624 115304 101596 114054 114789 73429 81769 97338 105077 89641

Probability 00138 00031 00062 00033 00032 00254 00168 00077 00052 00113

Sum 9421434 9048058 9043667 8239173 8882388 9359360 8495988 8636512 9372902 9256322

Sum Sq Dev 367539 1009027 809327 1356855 1072816 542746 2351912 1094302 506657 663408

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

29

Panel 2 Exports


Mean 43295 41726 44997 33564 39203 39204 42884 37423 36712 41902

Median 43989 42513 46369 33563 40228 37215 43260 34893 36168 41063

Maximum 49267 47480 48047 50647 51078 48075 48591 52280 49347 48121

Minimum 35181 32658 38487 10999 28248 31282 35764 22685 20866 32299

Std Dev 03567 04627 02889 12951 07307 05704 03974 09473 09485 04404

Skewness -05126 -03390 -11139 -01593 01003 01444 -03788 02615 -01339 -00785

Kurtosis 24040 16695 28948 16237 17569 13333 18292 17687 15771 19101

Jarque-Bera 63277 100352 223840 89813 71350 128756 87513 80535 94336 54568

Probability 00423 00066 00000 00112 00282 00016 00126 00178 00089 00653

Sum 4675847 4506379 4859645 3624899 4233933 4234076 4631435 4041731 3964876 4525383

Sum Sq Dev 136178 229032 89333 1794823 571317 348181 168996 960184 962699 207557

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 42639 41893 42189 40448 42248 44177 39647 39949 43572 42808

Median 42484 42653 42154 38822 43018 44454 41144 39034 43987 42616

Maximum 47407 47004 48937 48585 47489 47584 52432 47544 47638 47884

Minimum 36895 30077 36326 33208 34602 38788 25067 31643 37575 35685

Std Dev 03435 04889 04158 05011 03967 02711 07820 04997 03222 03643

Skewness -00975 -08534 -00141 03327 -03128 -05993 -02009 -00408 -05455 -02672

Kurtosis 15123 25749 15233 15819 16434 21907 19619 15902 19928 19945

Jarque-Bera 101311 139237 98169 110416 100430 94126 55756 89743 99206 58349

Probability 00063 00009 00074 00040 00066 00090 00616 00113 00070 00541

Sum 4605043 4524443 4556463 4368366 4562831 4771111 4281869 4314453 4705765 4623307

Sum Sq Dev 126277 255735 184992 268627 168392 78665 654348 267198 111068 141975

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

30

Panel 3 Imports


Mean 40716 39632 43130 33437 38252 41097 42805 36761 36202 42363

Median 40293 38797 43425 33938 42632 38025 43333 33749 34995 42524

Maximum 48275 47789 47365 51059 47958 48484 48334 50553 48606 48670

Minimum 31854 27002 36458 10124 23431 34572 36232 22924 19763 33482

Std Dev 05623 05535 03511 13000 08121 05130 03861 09070 09426 04291

Skewness -01054 -02950 -05179 -01564 -04266 02822 -03998 01867 -01796 -00986

Kurtosis 16142 23579 19916 16996 17030 13341 17464 15966 16997 18396

Jarque-Bera 88414 34218 94030 80500 108455 139220 99495 94901 81891 62349

Probability 00120 01807 00091 00179 00044 00009 00069 00087 00167 00443

Sum 4397345 4280285 4658019 3611214 4131240 4438484 4622917 3970134 3909800 4575180

Sum Sq Dev 338298 327825 131914 1808338 705702 281581 159501 880160 950711 197015

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 44596 41885 41548 35841 39996 42484 39020 40019 43214 42898

Median 44561 41759 40821 35106 40211 41620 38407 38883 44214 44011

Maximum 48381 47750 49720 46132 49229 48587 49650 47288 48210 47980

Minimum 40342 29293 35068 24090 30390 34645 29905 31802 36600 34622

Std Dev 02461 04854 04568 06666 06219 04457 07157 05136 03670 04301

Skewness -02384 -06748 01142 00167 00316 -02192 02042 00811 -05114 -06862

Kurtosis 19290 25254 14961 15951 14596 18055 14998 14947 18138 20792

Jarque-Bera 61848 92090 104121 88865 106955 72860 108786 103152 110391 122905

Probability 00454 00100 00055 00118 00048 00262 00043 00058 00040 00021

Sum 4816391 4523614 4487204 3870807 4319557 4588249 4214119 4322059 4667138 4633015

Sum Sq Dev 64784 252086 223300 475453 413775 212507 548102 282235 144087 197896

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

31


Panel 1 Total Trade

Panel 2 Exports

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Panel 3 Imports


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level Critical

value at 5

PP Test stat at

1st Diff

Critical value at 5


Australia -2087649 -3452358 -5511474 -3452764 I(1)

Brazil -151073 -3452358 -4815699 -3452764 I(1)

Canada -1688886 -3452358 -4919794 -3452764 I(1)

China -0761713 -3452358 -4666041 -3452764 I(1)

DRCongo -2701397 -3452358 -4969701 -3452764 I(1)

Egypt -1110372 -3452358 -4587926 -3452764 I(1)

EU -2479035 -3452358 -4796753 -3452764 I(1)

Ghana -1789434 -3452358 -4749838 -3452764 I(1)

India -0176913 -3452358 -5580811 -3452764 I(1)

Indonesia -1940294 -3452358 -7723706 -3452764 I(1)

Japan -27304 -3452358 -4666113 -3452764 I(1)

Malaysia -1798537 -3452358 -5140808 -3452764 I(1)

Morocco -3427262 -3452358 -5251978 -3452764 I(1)

Nigeria -1885798 -3452358 -6573952 -3452764 I(1)

Russia -2427019 -3452358 -4584745 -3452764 I(1)

Safrica -2459347 -3452358 -5061753 -3452764 I(1)

Tanzania -2080362 -3452358 -4639207 -3452764 I(1)

Tunisia -2521464 -3452358 -4922059 -3452764 I(1)

UK -292419 -3452358 -4914527 -3452764 I(1)



34


Panel 1 Trace test



None 08119 20372650 7605409 00000

At most 1 07484 18618330 6950496 00000

At most 2 06943 17169350 6409570 00000

At most 3 06896 15925080 5945066 00000

At most 4 06813 14696730 5486505 00000

At most 5 06751 13496030 5038266 00000

At most 6 06619 12315570 4597583 00000

At most 7 06605 11176950 4172519 00000

At most 8 06570 10042670 3749076 00000

At most 9 06534 8919101 3220692 00000

At most 10 06439 7806611 2731889 00000

At most 11 06424 6722533 2282979 00001

At most 12 06365 5642802 1874701 00000

At most 13 06312 4580251 1505585 00000

At most 14 06183 3532980 1177082 00000

At most 15 05059 2521643 888038 00000

At most 16 04229 1781345 638761 00000

At most 17 03477 1204084 429153 00000

At most 18 03308 755525 258721 00000

At most 19 02723 333740 125180 00000



Max-Eigen Stat


None 08119 1754311 1262691 00000

At most 1 07484 1448984 1042928 00000

At most 2 06943 1244273 895584 00000

At most 3 06896 1228346 884120 00000

At most 4 06813 1200704 864224 00000

At most 5 06751 1180455 849650 00000

At most 6 06619 1138626 819543 00000

At most 7 06605 1134280 816415 00000

At most 8 06570 1123565 808703 00000

At most 9 06534 1112489 748375 00000

At most 10 06439 1084078 688121 00000

At most 11 06424 1079731 627522 00000

35

At most 12 06365 1062552 567052 00000

At most 13 06312 1047271 505999 00000

At most 14 06183 1011337 444972 00000

At most 15 05059 740298 383310 00000

At most 16 04229 577261 321183 00000

At most 17 03477 448558 258232 00001

At most 18 03308 421785 193870 00000

At most 19 02723 333740 125180 00000

Source Authors

36






0

10

20

30

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50

60

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100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Pe

rce

nta

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Horizon

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)

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37





USA 75340 31220 52535 24920 32451 80425 16142 58582

Brazil 70609 08813 89311 04341 118017 31421 34896 70440

Russia 77612 125327 110425 34878 37666 32531 20684 95616

India 37554 88615 28643 68745 14462 45156 27108 20011

China 72605 55905 65828 98491 44992 74646 19369 79720

South Africa 97203 36750 72784 35206 31078 59433 25869 68574

Australia 11614 44655 02851 08205 109096 02585 32873 15055

Canada 73007 73293 50845 17185 57174 54735 08255 60655

EU 84055 25762 66141 26268 48995 68512 12978 68320

Indonesia 19769 24314 01169 80320 18449 16285 14550 05139

Japan 85308 40028 55534 22141 62552 85835 16891 70244

Malaysia 56649 70935 37736 31557 26228 67378 19406 37956

UK 53469 16542 64573 110048 19054 107249 55380 45530

DR Congo 29744 215520 39112 71369 09432 26191 07574 32377

Egypt 43495 37493 140244 17884 31158 27479 80075 60913

Ghana 03332 39604 21476 261490 10461 04486 12166 24795

Morocco 26742 12945 28298 04647 232156 27901 47621 48632

Nigeria 30411 05806 22706 64205 14887 130388 42022 25243

Tanzania 03455 10693 03545 11170 24621 31812 501363 06036

Tunisia 48028 35778 46245 06928 57070 25551 04778 106163



Total from BRICS 258380 315410 366990 241662 246216 243188 127926 334361

Total from Asia 349497 405125 299335 336134 204349 321832 118008 308685



38




USA 84417 27346 64937 08671 58633 45316 50364 08786

Brazil 62986 17990 52082 67154 42216 23105 79339 53891

Russia 80149 22871 85737 59520 44582 03436 72180 08594

India 24108 88781 32734 41954 80329 59152 35292 31134

China 57369 67788 51214 97239 36961 03302 48212 15927

South Africa 96491 23300 70515 22174 37526 16513 58827 15241

Australia 29237 67747 29516 62979 69457 03181 43946 24635

Canada 68897 31125 55227 47717 82931 07959 61205 05466

EU 71382 41920 40932 09740 82114 44444 71835 16233

Indonesia 45443 03361 37592 03145 24308 04855 20374 05870

Japan 67811 27701 61483 42867 46307 37472 64150 53856

Malaysia 57080 08193 56191 27331 61632 42365 26281 25684

UK 79705 08899 57763 09308 18636 75911 39259 30355

DR Congo 09940 314128 04962 51581 29301 07936 32248 94814

Egypt 33338 15688 113752 57598 34201 18514 40609 16733

Ghana 14299 25910 45405 243033 14637 60390 36649 10144

Morocco 29828 91510 32439 50298 136523 28312 64231 34121

Nigeria 16423 06604 31183 17516 07315 390801 09295 68504

Tunisia 40701 34480 50979 63742 67218 35759 117458 38775

Tanzania 30396 74657 25357 16435 25175 91275 28247 441238



Total from BRICS 224613 220729 292282 288040 241613 105508 293849 124787

Total from Asia 331961 218695 324952 272055 294119 150583 266489 141065



39




USA 09188 00959 09065 00856

Brazil 08344 01108 08742 00260

Russia 08388 02094 08924 00929

India 09000 -01139 08413 -00254

China 09102 01438 08912 00402

South Africa 09028 00416 09035 00097

Australia 07105 -02842 08673 -00439

Canada 08991 00946 08986 01122

EU 09121 01077 08971 00713

Indonesia 07591 -03108 08369 -02587

Japan 08998 01361 08803 00883

Malaysia 09000 00528 08364 00472

UK 08870 00649 08808 -00493

DR Congo 07845 -00328 06859 -00974

Egypt 08598 -00230 08862 -01441

Ghana 07385 -03746 07570 -01304

Morocco 07678 -00723 08635 01011

Nigeria 08696 -01538 06092 -02776

Tanzania 04986 -03598 05588 -00770


40




USA 918838 1116203 197365 906516 1080837 174321

Brazil 834405 1048823 214418 874223 922305 48081

Russia 838838 1301518 462681 892421 1076102 183681

India 900031 715701 -184330 841338 842608 01270

China 910213 1216863 306650 891159 966746 75587

South Africa 902797 982282 79485 903509 923706 20197

Australia 710525 395694 -314831 867260 798447 -68813

Canada 899143 1089583 190440 898639 1131561 232923

EU 912144 1134632 222487 897115 1036992 139877

Indonesia 759059 405570 -353488 836906 492962 -343944

Japan 899771 1184811 285039 880287 1054533 174246

Malaysia 899995 1001143 101148 836384 922360 85975

UK 887018 1011048 124029 880782 799256 -81526

DR Congo 784480 738784 -45696 685872 576096 -109776

Egypt 859756 838059 -21696 886248 665117 -221131

Ghana 738510 364252 -374258 756967 607614 -149354

Morocco 767844 666083 -101761 863477 1066309 202831

Nigeria 869612 638121 -231491 609199 351031 -258168

Tanzania 498637 239716 -258921 558762 535112 -23650


9



















this study












10





























11


as follows

119937120061 = 120630119963 + 120509120051119937120061minus120051120057120051=120783 + 120634120061 (1)















119918119917119916119933119915 119937119946120061 120634119947120061 119919 = 119941119946119947119944119919

= 120648120634119947119947minus120783 119942119946

prime120495119945120506120634119942119947 sup2119919minus120783119945=120782

119942119946prime120495119945120506120634120495119945

prime 119942119946 119919minus120783119945=120782

(3)









12








(NGFEVDs) given by2

119863 119892 = 119889 119894119895119892 where 119889 119894119895

119892=

119889119894119895119892

119889119894119895119892119873

119895=1

119889119894119895119892

= 119918119917119916119933119915 119937119946120061 120634119947120061 119919 (4)

By construction 119889 119894119895119892119873

119895=1 = 1 and 119889 119894119895119892119873


















that 119863119892119867 and 119889119894119895119892119867


respectively

13



119937120783

⋯ 1198891119895

119873

119895=1 119895 ne 1

119937120784

⋯ 1198892119895

119873

119895=1 119895 ne 2

⋮ ⋮ ⋮ ⋱

⋮ ⋮

119937119925

⋯ 119889119873119895

119873

119895=1 119895 ne 119873

To Others

1198891198941

119873

119894=1

119894 ne 1

1198891198942

119873

119894=1

119894 ne 2

⋯ 119889119894119873

119873

119894=1

119894 ne N

1

119873 119889119894119895

119873

119894 119895=1 119894 ne 119895











119919119947 = 119941119947119947 (5)






14





119917119947 = 119941119947119946119925119946=120783119946ne119947 (6)



by 119931119947) as

119931119947 = 119941119946119947119925119946=120783119946ne119947 (7)






119925119947 = 119931119947 minus 119917119947 (8)












119931119931119923119920 = 120783

119925 119917119947

119925119947=120783 =

120783

119925 119931119947

119925119947=120783 (9)

15










defined as

119926119947119919 =

119917119947

119919119947+ 119917119947 forall 119947 = 120783 120784 hellip 119925 (10)






119920119947119919 =

119925119947

119931119947+119917119947 forall 119947 = 120783 120784 hellip 119925 (11)






119919) in the





point (11)


16

















global economy















17
























0

20

40

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80

100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Pe

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)

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18








USA 71778 29440 61788 42154 74728 43927 18340 60843

Brazil 58032 19932 55790 44390 33250 42150 14919 67961

Russia 66697 31216 64970 49067 35979 32582 25549 72983

India 55713 60962 72008 64639 46561 32564 08157 46453

China 68649 57823 73921 90160 55913 54103 16375 75379

South Africa 80744 44883 80196 65987 54168 42197 06952 75993

Australia 27148 31751 25479 38758 25946 44026 26291 34948

Canada 65383 41541 57408 37902 73538 47009 14725 55939

EU 68368 15015 57468 38353 75445 42242 12341 63107

Indonesia 23779 16606 16213 15499 09009 26810 06512 23182

Japan 68181 31048 55894 40754 77014 55484 24794 61861

Malaysia 45584 42499 33993 16137 42698 30786 55850 29298

UK 80756 15008 76576 76385 96626 78466 69155 62834

DR Congo 18171 287238 16923 29821 07776 15582 103410 20364

Egypt 60237 30150 89778 75198 46710 27362 35750 64429

Ghana 33558 41383 52468 121599 42637 46661 27242 37347

Morocco 43059 10130 40407 33048 93997 68184 52822 45226

Nigeria 13664 95792 11543 67823 28771 186518 05394 16720

Tanzania 05952 80171 03841 15953 29832 65904 451662 08304

Tunisia 44544 17412 53335 36375 49400 17444 23759 76830



Total from BRICS 249093 214816 346886 314243 225871 203596 71952 338770

Total from Asia 328605 240154 317000 276255 267174 232328 137238 309157









Brazil and USA

19





























20
















equation (8)















21







7)



USA 09225 01146

Brazil 09120 -00219

Russia 09112 00455

India 09078 -00084

China 09089 01571



Canada 09162 00942

EU 09242 00508


Japan 09058 00983

Malaysia 08912 -00356

UK 08952 01750

DR Congo 07128 -01741

Egypt 09102 00250

Ghana 08784 -00938

Morocco 09060 -00343

Nigeria 08135 -01450

Tanzania 05483 -02800







22











USA 922486 1167212 244726

Brazil 911992 874640 -37352

Russia 911225 1000613 89388

India 907825 898242 -09583

China 908903 1248026 339122

South Africa 919256 1136053 216797

Australia 920363 648580 -271782

Canada 916215 1112171 195956

EU 924230 1029565 105335

Indonesia 870173 369507 -500665

Japan 905765 1109993 204227

Malaysia 891174 833400 -57774

UK 895223 1279940 384716

DR Congo 712762 501596 -211166

Egypt 910222 960466 50244

Ghana 878401 774361 -104040

Morocco 906003 846578 -59425

Nigeria 813482 682922 -130560

Tanzania 548338 329206 -219132




4


23

















transmitters















24









25

References











ndash 505 DOI 1023072109358






South Africa













Bank EuroSystem



httpsdoiorg101111j1468-0297200802208x

26






9780199338306





9780199683666





1023072938189


















27





101257000282803321946804











43 doi 101111apel12218






1765(97)00214-0











102(30) 10421 ndash 10426 doi 101073pnas0500298102

28


Panel 1 Total trade


Mean 84011 81358 88127 67001 77455 80301 85688 74184 72914 84264

Median 84236 79800 90033 67500 83329 75169 86593 68642 71163 83149

Maximum 97207 94582 95355 101668 98959 96559 96925 102321 97017 96790

Minimum 68070 59661 74991 21419 52033 66311 71997 45609 41361 65780

Std Dev 09103 09923 06307 25939 15215 10771 07832 18510 18889 08659

Skewness -02557 -03265 -08339 -01564 -02113 01983 -03892 02254 -01552 -00788

Kurtosis 18436 20982 24076 16568 16486 13023 17853 16793 16301 18843

Jarque-Bera 71942 55790 140960 85592 90220 136781 93660 87637 88786 57136

Probability 00274 00615 00009 00138 00110 00011 00093 00125 00118 00575

Sum 9073191 8786664 9517664 7236112 8365173 8672560 9254352 8011865 7874676 9100564

Sum Sq Dev 886614 1053555 425632 7199027 2477109 1241421 656302 3666218 3817577 802300

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 87236 83778 83738 76289 82244 86661 78667 79968 86786 85707

Median 87044 84389 82930 73778 83385 86057 79551 77917 88201 86262

Maximum 95578 94754 98656 93881 95886 96149 101364 94617 95788 95813

Minimum 77730 59370 71394 59040 66530 73517 55142 63446 74210 70590

Std Dev 05861 09711 08697 11261 10013 07122 14826 10113 06881 07874

Skewness -01509 -07693 00520 00961 -00788 -03648 00245 00168 -05261 -05221

Kurtosis 16540 25582 15010 14196 14106 19515 16529 15297 18919 20504

Jarque-Bera 85624 115304 101596 114054 114789 73429 81769 97338 105077 89641

Probability 00138 00031 00062 00033 00032 00254 00168 00077 00052 00113

Sum 9421434 9048058 9043667 8239173 8882388 9359360 8495988 8636512 9372902 9256322

Sum Sq Dev 367539 1009027 809327 1356855 1072816 542746 2351912 1094302 506657 663408

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

29

Panel 2 Exports


Mean 43295 41726 44997 33564 39203 39204 42884 37423 36712 41902

Median 43989 42513 46369 33563 40228 37215 43260 34893 36168 41063

Maximum 49267 47480 48047 50647 51078 48075 48591 52280 49347 48121

Minimum 35181 32658 38487 10999 28248 31282 35764 22685 20866 32299

Std Dev 03567 04627 02889 12951 07307 05704 03974 09473 09485 04404

Skewness -05126 -03390 -11139 -01593 01003 01444 -03788 02615 -01339 -00785

Kurtosis 24040 16695 28948 16237 17569 13333 18292 17687 15771 19101

Jarque-Bera 63277 100352 223840 89813 71350 128756 87513 80535 94336 54568

Probability 00423 00066 00000 00112 00282 00016 00126 00178 00089 00653

Sum 4675847 4506379 4859645 3624899 4233933 4234076 4631435 4041731 3964876 4525383

Sum Sq Dev 136178 229032 89333 1794823 571317 348181 168996 960184 962699 207557

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 42639 41893 42189 40448 42248 44177 39647 39949 43572 42808

Median 42484 42653 42154 38822 43018 44454 41144 39034 43987 42616

Maximum 47407 47004 48937 48585 47489 47584 52432 47544 47638 47884

Minimum 36895 30077 36326 33208 34602 38788 25067 31643 37575 35685

Std Dev 03435 04889 04158 05011 03967 02711 07820 04997 03222 03643

Skewness -00975 -08534 -00141 03327 -03128 -05993 -02009 -00408 -05455 -02672

Kurtosis 15123 25749 15233 15819 16434 21907 19619 15902 19928 19945

Jarque-Bera 101311 139237 98169 110416 100430 94126 55756 89743 99206 58349

Probability 00063 00009 00074 00040 00066 00090 00616 00113 00070 00541

Sum 4605043 4524443 4556463 4368366 4562831 4771111 4281869 4314453 4705765 4623307

Sum Sq Dev 126277 255735 184992 268627 168392 78665 654348 267198 111068 141975

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

30

Panel 3 Imports


Mean 40716 39632 43130 33437 38252 41097 42805 36761 36202 42363

Median 40293 38797 43425 33938 42632 38025 43333 33749 34995 42524

Maximum 48275 47789 47365 51059 47958 48484 48334 50553 48606 48670

Minimum 31854 27002 36458 10124 23431 34572 36232 22924 19763 33482

Std Dev 05623 05535 03511 13000 08121 05130 03861 09070 09426 04291

Skewness -01054 -02950 -05179 -01564 -04266 02822 -03998 01867 -01796 -00986

Kurtosis 16142 23579 19916 16996 17030 13341 17464 15966 16997 18396

Jarque-Bera 88414 34218 94030 80500 108455 139220 99495 94901 81891 62349

Probability 00120 01807 00091 00179 00044 00009 00069 00087 00167 00443

Sum 4397345 4280285 4658019 3611214 4131240 4438484 4622917 3970134 3909800 4575180

Sum Sq Dev 338298 327825 131914 1808338 705702 281581 159501 880160 950711 197015

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 44596 41885 41548 35841 39996 42484 39020 40019 43214 42898

Median 44561 41759 40821 35106 40211 41620 38407 38883 44214 44011

Maximum 48381 47750 49720 46132 49229 48587 49650 47288 48210 47980

Minimum 40342 29293 35068 24090 30390 34645 29905 31802 36600 34622

Std Dev 02461 04854 04568 06666 06219 04457 07157 05136 03670 04301

Skewness -02384 -06748 01142 00167 00316 -02192 02042 00811 -05114 -06862

Kurtosis 19290 25254 14961 15951 14596 18055 14998 14947 18138 20792

Jarque-Bera 61848 92090 104121 88865 106955 72860 108786 103152 110391 122905

Probability 00454 00100 00055 00118 00048 00262 00043 00058 00040 00021

Sum 4816391 4523614 4487204 3870807 4319557 4588249 4214119 4322059 4667138 4633015

Sum Sq Dev 64784 252086 223300 475453 413775 212507 548102 282235 144087 197896

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

31


Panel 1 Total Trade

Panel 2 Exports

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Panel 3 Imports


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33



level Critical

value at 5

PP Test stat at

1st Diff

Critical value at 5


Australia -2087649 -3452358 -5511474 -3452764 I(1)

Brazil -151073 -3452358 -4815699 -3452764 I(1)

Canada -1688886 -3452358 -4919794 -3452764 I(1)

China -0761713 -3452358 -4666041 -3452764 I(1)

DRCongo -2701397 -3452358 -4969701 -3452764 I(1)

Egypt -1110372 -3452358 -4587926 -3452764 I(1)

EU -2479035 -3452358 -4796753 -3452764 I(1)

Ghana -1789434 -3452358 -4749838 -3452764 I(1)

India -0176913 -3452358 -5580811 -3452764 I(1)

Indonesia -1940294 -3452358 -7723706 -3452764 I(1)

Japan -27304 -3452358 -4666113 -3452764 I(1)

Malaysia -1798537 -3452358 -5140808 -3452764 I(1)

Morocco -3427262 -3452358 -5251978 -3452764 I(1)

Nigeria -1885798 -3452358 -6573952 -3452764 I(1)

Russia -2427019 -3452358 -4584745 -3452764 I(1)

Safrica -2459347 -3452358 -5061753 -3452764 I(1)

Tanzania -2080362 -3452358 -4639207 -3452764 I(1)

Tunisia -2521464 -3452358 -4922059 -3452764 I(1)

UK -292419 -3452358 -4914527 -3452764 I(1)



34


Panel 1 Trace test



None 08119 20372650 7605409 00000

At most 1 07484 18618330 6950496 00000

At most 2 06943 17169350 6409570 00000

At most 3 06896 15925080 5945066 00000

At most 4 06813 14696730 5486505 00000

At most 5 06751 13496030 5038266 00000

At most 6 06619 12315570 4597583 00000

At most 7 06605 11176950 4172519 00000

At most 8 06570 10042670 3749076 00000

At most 9 06534 8919101 3220692 00000

At most 10 06439 7806611 2731889 00000

At most 11 06424 6722533 2282979 00001

At most 12 06365 5642802 1874701 00000

At most 13 06312 4580251 1505585 00000

At most 14 06183 3532980 1177082 00000

At most 15 05059 2521643 888038 00000

At most 16 04229 1781345 638761 00000

At most 17 03477 1204084 429153 00000

At most 18 03308 755525 258721 00000

At most 19 02723 333740 125180 00000



Max-Eigen Stat


None 08119 1754311 1262691 00000

At most 1 07484 1448984 1042928 00000

At most 2 06943 1244273 895584 00000

At most 3 06896 1228346 884120 00000

At most 4 06813 1200704 864224 00000

At most 5 06751 1180455 849650 00000

At most 6 06619 1138626 819543 00000

At most 7 06605 1134280 816415 00000

At most 8 06570 1123565 808703 00000

At most 9 06534 1112489 748375 00000

At most 10 06439 1084078 688121 00000

At most 11 06424 1079731 627522 00000

35

At most 12 06365 1062552 567052 00000

At most 13 06312 1047271 505999 00000

At most 14 06183 1011337 444972 00000

At most 15 05059 740298 383310 00000

At most 16 04229 577261 321183 00000

At most 17 03477 448558 258232 00001

At most 18 03308 421785 193870 00000

At most 19 02723 333740 125180 00000

Source Authors

36






0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Pe

rce

nta

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5)

Horizon

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50

60

70

80

90

100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Pe

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)

Horizon

37





USA 75340 31220 52535 24920 32451 80425 16142 58582

Brazil 70609 08813 89311 04341 118017 31421 34896 70440

Russia 77612 125327 110425 34878 37666 32531 20684 95616

India 37554 88615 28643 68745 14462 45156 27108 20011

China 72605 55905 65828 98491 44992 74646 19369 79720

South Africa 97203 36750 72784 35206 31078 59433 25869 68574

Australia 11614 44655 02851 08205 109096 02585 32873 15055

Canada 73007 73293 50845 17185 57174 54735 08255 60655

EU 84055 25762 66141 26268 48995 68512 12978 68320

Indonesia 19769 24314 01169 80320 18449 16285 14550 05139

Japan 85308 40028 55534 22141 62552 85835 16891 70244

Malaysia 56649 70935 37736 31557 26228 67378 19406 37956

UK 53469 16542 64573 110048 19054 107249 55380 45530

DR Congo 29744 215520 39112 71369 09432 26191 07574 32377

Egypt 43495 37493 140244 17884 31158 27479 80075 60913

Ghana 03332 39604 21476 261490 10461 04486 12166 24795

Morocco 26742 12945 28298 04647 232156 27901 47621 48632

Nigeria 30411 05806 22706 64205 14887 130388 42022 25243

Tanzania 03455 10693 03545 11170 24621 31812 501363 06036

Tunisia 48028 35778 46245 06928 57070 25551 04778 106163



Total from BRICS 258380 315410 366990 241662 246216 243188 127926 334361

Total from Asia 349497 405125 299335 336134 204349 321832 118008 308685



38




USA 84417 27346 64937 08671 58633 45316 50364 08786

Brazil 62986 17990 52082 67154 42216 23105 79339 53891

Russia 80149 22871 85737 59520 44582 03436 72180 08594

India 24108 88781 32734 41954 80329 59152 35292 31134

China 57369 67788 51214 97239 36961 03302 48212 15927

South Africa 96491 23300 70515 22174 37526 16513 58827 15241

Australia 29237 67747 29516 62979 69457 03181 43946 24635

Canada 68897 31125 55227 47717 82931 07959 61205 05466

EU 71382 41920 40932 09740 82114 44444 71835 16233

Indonesia 45443 03361 37592 03145 24308 04855 20374 05870

Japan 67811 27701 61483 42867 46307 37472 64150 53856

Malaysia 57080 08193 56191 27331 61632 42365 26281 25684

UK 79705 08899 57763 09308 18636 75911 39259 30355

DR Congo 09940 314128 04962 51581 29301 07936 32248 94814

Egypt 33338 15688 113752 57598 34201 18514 40609 16733

Ghana 14299 25910 45405 243033 14637 60390 36649 10144

Morocco 29828 91510 32439 50298 136523 28312 64231 34121

Nigeria 16423 06604 31183 17516 07315 390801 09295 68504

Tunisia 40701 34480 50979 63742 67218 35759 117458 38775

Tanzania 30396 74657 25357 16435 25175 91275 28247 441238



Total from BRICS 224613 220729 292282 288040 241613 105508 293849 124787

Total from Asia 331961 218695 324952 272055 294119 150583 266489 141065



39




USA 09188 00959 09065 00856

Brazil 08344 01108 08742 00260

Russia 08388 02094 08924 00929

India 09000 -01139 08413 -00254

China 09102 01438 08912 00402

South Africa 09028 00416 09035 00097

Australia 07105 -02842 08673 -00439

Canada 08991 00946 08986 01122

EU 09121 01077 08971 00713

Indonesia 07591 -03108 08369 -02587

Japan 08998 01361 08803 00883

Malaysia 09000 00528 08364 00472

UK 08870 00649 08808 -00493

DR Congo 07845 -00328 06859 -00974

Egypt 08598 -00230 08862 -01441

Ghana 07385 -03746 07570 -01304

Morocco 07678 -00723 08635 01011

Nigeria 08696 -01538 06092 -02776

Tanzania 04986 -03598 05588 -00770


40




USA 918838 1116203 197365 906516 1080837 174321

Brazil 834405 1048823 214418 874223 922305 48081

Russia 838838 1301518 462681 892421 1076102 183681

India 900031 715701 -184330 841338 842608 01270

China 910213 1216863 306650 891159 966746 75587

South Africa 902797 982282 79485 903509 923706 20197

Australia 710525 395694 -314831 867260 798447 -68813

Canada 899143 1089583 190440 898639 1131561 232923

EU 912144 1134632 222487 897115 1036992 139877

Indonesia 759059 405570 -353488 836906 492962 -343944

Japan 899771 1184811 285039 880287 1054533 174246

Malaysia 899995 1001143 101148 836384 922360 85975

UK 887018 1011048 124029 880782 799256 -81526

DR Congo 784480 738784 -45696 685872 576096 -109776

Egypt 859756 838059 -21696 886248 665117 -221131

Ghana 738510 364252 -374258 756967 607614 -149354

Morocco 767844 666083 -101761 863477 1066309 202831

Nigeria 869612 638121 -231491 609199 351031 -258168

Tanzania 498637 239716 -258921 558762 535112 -23650


10





























11


as follows

119937120061 = 120630119963 + 120509120051119937120061minus120051120057120051=120783 + 120634120061 (1)















119918119917119916119933119915 119937119946120061 120634119947120061 119919 = 119941119946119947119944119919

= 120648120634119947119947minus120783 119942119946

prime120495119945120506120634119942119947 sup2119919minus120783119945=120782

119942119946prime120495119945120506120634120495119945

prime 119942119946 119919minus120783119945=120782

(3)









12








(NGFEVDs) given by2

119863 119892 = 119889 119894119895119892 where 119889 119894119895

119892=

119889119894119895119892

119889119894119895119892119873

119895=1

119889119894119895119892

= 119918119917119916119933119915 119937119946120061 120634119947120061 119919 (4)

By construction 119889 119894119895119892119873

119895=1 = 1 and 119889 119894119895119892119873


















that 119863119892119867 and 119889119894119895119892119867


respectively

13



119937120783

⋯ 1198891119895

119873

119895=1 119895 ne 1

119937120784

⋯ 1198892119895

119873

119895=1 119895 ne 2

⋮ ⋮ ⋮ ⋱

⋮ ⋮

119937119925

⋯ 119889119873119895

119873

119895=1 119895 ne 119873

To Others

1198891198941

119873

119894=1

119894 ne 1

1198891198942

119873

119894=1

119894 ne 2

⋯ 119889119894119873

119873

119894=1

119894 ne N

1

119873 119889119894119895

119873

119894 119895=1 119894 ne 119895











119919119947 = 119941119947119947 (5)






14





119917119947 = 119941119947119946119925119946=120783119946ne119947 (6)



by 119931119947) as

119931119947 = 119941119946119947119925119946=120783119946ne119947 (7)






119925119947 = 119931119947 minus 119917119947 (8)












119931119931119923119920 = 120783

119925 119917119947

119925119947=120783 =

120783

119925 119931119947

119925119947=120783 (9)

15










defined as

119926119947119919 =

119917119947

119919119947+ 119917119947 forall 119947 = 120783 120784 hellip 119925 (10)






119920119947119919 =

119925119947

119931119947+119917119947 forall 119947 = 120783 120784 hellip 119925 (11)






119919) in the





point (11)


16

















global economy















17
























0

20

40

60

80

100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Pe

rce

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)

Horizon

18








USA 71778 29440 61788 42154 74728 43927 18340 60843

Brazil 58032 19932 55790 44390 33250 42150 14919 67961

Russia 66697 31216 64970 49067 35979 32582 25549 72983

India 55713 60962 72008 64639 46561 32564 08157 46453

China 68649 57823 73921 90160 55913 54103 16375 75379

South Africa 80744 44883 80196 65987 54168 42197 06952 75993

Australia 27148 31751 25479 38758 25946 44026 26291 34948

Canada 65383 41541 57408 37902 73538 47009 14725 55939

EU 68368 15015 57468 38353 75445 42242 12341 63107

Indonesia 23779 16606 16213 15499 09009 26810 06512 23182

Japan 68181 31048 55894 40754 77014 55484 24794 61861

Malaysia 45584 42499 33993 16137 42698 30786 55850 29298

UK 80756 15008 76576 76385 96626 78466 69155 62834

DR Congo 18171 287238 16923 29821 07776 15582 103410 20364

Egypt 60237 30150 89778 75198 46710 27362 35750 64429

Ghana 33558 41383 52468 121599 42637 46661 27242 37347

Morocco 43059 10130 40407 33048 93997 68184 52822 45226

Nigeria 13664 95792 11543 67823 28771 186518 05394 16720

Tanzania 05952 80171 03841 15953 29832 65904 451662 08304

Tunisia 44544 17412 53335 36375 49400 17444 23759 76830



Total from BRICS 249093 214816 346886 314243 225871 203596 71952 338770

Total from Asia 328605 240154 317000 276255 267174 232328 137238 309157









Brazil and USA

19





























20
















equation (8)















21







7)



USA 09225 01146

Brazil 09120 -00219

Russia 09112 00455

India 09078 -00084

China 09089 01571



Canada 09162 00942

EU 09242 00508


Japan 09058 00983

Malaysia 08912 -00356

UK 08952 01750

DR Congo 07128 -01741

Egypt 09102 00250

Ghana 08784 -00938

Morocco 09060 -00343

Nigeria 08135 -01450

Tanzania 05483 -02800







22











USA 922486 1167212 244726

Brazil 911992 874640 -37352

Russia 911225 1000613 89388

India 907825 898242 -09583

China 908903 1248026 339122

South Africa 919256 1136053 216797

Australia 920363 648580 -271782

Canada 916215 1112171 195956

EU 924230 1029565 105335

Indonesia 870173 369507 -500665

Japan 905765 1109993 204227

Malaysia 891174 833400 -57774

UK 895223 1279940 384716

DR Congo 712762 501596 -211166

Egypt 910222 960466 50244

Ghana 878401 774361 -104040

Morocco 906003 846578 -59425

Nigeria 813482 682922 -130560

Tanzania 548338 329206 -219132




4


23

















transmitters















24









25

References











ndash 505 DOI 1023072109358






South Africa













Bank EuroSystem



httpsdoiorg101111j1468-0297200802208x

26






9780199338306





9780199683666





1023072938189


















27





101257000282803321946804











43 doi 101111apel12218






1765(97)00214-0











102(30) 10421 ndash 10426 doi 101073pnas0500298102

28


Panel 1 Total trade


Mean 84011 81358 88127 67001 77455 80301 85688 74184 72914 84264

Median 84236 79800 90033 67500 83329 75169 86593 68642 71163 83149

Maximum 97207 94582 95355 101668 98959 96559 96925 102321 97017 96790

Minimum 68070 59661 74991 21419 52033 66311 71997 45609 41361 65780

Std Dev 09103 09923 06307 25939 15215 10771 07832 18510 18889 08659

Skewness -02557 -03265 -08339 -01564 -02113 01983 -03892 02254 -01552 -00788

Kurtosis 18436 20982 24076 16568 16486 13023 17853 16793 16301 18843

Jarque-Bera 71942 55790 140960 85592 90220 136781 93660 87637 88786 57136

Probability 00274 00615 00009 00138 00110 00011 00093 00125 00118 00575

Sum 9073191 8786664 9517664 7236112 8365173 8672560 9254352 8011865 7874676 9100564

Sum Sq Dev 886614 1053555 425632 7199027 2477109 1241421 656302 3666218 3817577 802300

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 87236 83778 83738 76289 82244 86661 78667 79968 86786 85707

Median 87044 84389 82930 73778 83385 86057 79551 77917 88201 86262

Maximum 95578 94754 98656 93881 95886 96149 101364 94617 95788 95813

Minimum 77730 59370 71394 59040 66530 73517 55142 63446 74210 70590

Std Dev 05861 09711 08697 11261 10013 07122 14826 10113 06881 07874

Skewness -01509 -07693 00520 00961 -00788 -03648 00245 00168 -05261 -05221

Kurtosis 16540 25582 15010 14196 14106 19515 16529 15297 18919 20504

Jarque-Bera 85624 115304 101596 114054 114789 73429 81769 97338 105077 89641

Probability 00138 00031 00062 00033 00032 00254 00168 00077 00052 00113

Sum 9421434 9048058 9043667 8239173 8882388 9359360 8495988 8636512 9372902 9256322

Sum Sq Dev 367539 1009027 809327 1356855 1072816 542746 2351912 1094302 506657 663408

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

29

Panel 2 Exports


Mean 43295 41726 44997 33564 39203 39204 42884 37423 36712 41902

Median 43989 42513 46369 33563 40228 37215 43260 34893 36168 41063

Maximum 49267 47480 48047 50647 51078 48075 48591 52280 49347 48121

Minimum 35181 32658 38487 10999 28248 31282 35764 22685 20866 32299

Std Dev 03567 04627 02889 12951 07307 05704 03974 09473 09485 04404

Skewness -05126 -03390 -11139 -01593 01003 01444 -03788 02615 -01339 -00785

Kurtosis 24040 16695 28948 16237 17569 13333 18292 17687 15771 19101

Jarque-Bera 63277 100352 223840 89813 71350 128756 87513 80535 94336 54568

Probability 00423 00066 00000 00112 00282 00016 00126 00178 00089 00653

Sum 4675847 4506379 4859645 3624899 4233933 4234076 4631435 4041731 3964876 4525383

Sum Sq Dev 136178 229032 89333 1794823 571317 348181 168996 960184 962699 207557

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 42639 41893 42189 40448 42248 44177 39647 39949 43572 42808

Median 42484 42653 42154 38822 43018 44454 41144 39034 43987 42616

Maximum 47407 47004 48937 48585 47489 47584 52432 47544 47638 47884

Minimum 36895 30077 36326 33208 34602 38788 25067 31643 37575 35685

Std Dev 03435 04889 04158 05011 03967 02711 07820 04997 03222 03643

Skewness -00975 -08534 -00141 03327 -03128 -05993 -02009 -00408 -05455 -02672

Kurtosis 15123 25749 15233 15819 16434 21907 19619 15902 19928 19945

Jarque-Bera 101311 139237 98169 110416 100430 94126 55756 89743 99206 58349

Probability 00063 00009 00074 00040 00066 00090 00616 00113 00070 00541

Sum 4605043 4524443 4556463 4368366 4562831 4771111 4281869 4314453 4705765 4623307

Sum Sq Dev 126277 255735 184992 268627 168392 78665 654348 267198 111068 141975

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

30

Panel 3 Imports


Mean 40716 39632 43130 33437 38252 41097 42805 36761 36202 42363

Median 40293 38797 43425 33938 42632 38025 43333 33749 34995 42524

Maximum 48275 47789 47365 51059 47958 48484 48334 50553 48606 48670

Minimum 31854 27002 36458 10124 23431 34572 36232 22924 19763 33482

Std Dev 05623 05535 03511 13000 08121 05130 03861 09070 09426 04291

Skewness -01054 -02950 -05179 -01564 -04266 02822 -03998 01867 -01796 -00986

Kurtosis 16142 23579 19916 16996 17030 13341 17464 15966 16997 18396

Jarque-Bera 88414 34218 94030 80500 108455 139220 99495 94901 81891 62349

Probability 00120 01807 00091 00179 00044 00009 00069 00087 00167 00443

Sum 4397345 4280285 4658019 3611214 4131240 4438484 4622917 3970134 3909800 4575180

Sum Sq Dev 338298 327825 131914 1808338 705702 281581 159501 880160 950711 197015

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 44596 41885 41548 35841 39996 42484 39020 40019 43214 42898

Median 44561 41759 40821 35106 40211 41620 38407 38883 44214 44011

Maximum 48381 47750 49720 46132 49229 48587 49650 47288 48210 47980

Minimum 40342 29293 35068 24090 30390 34645 29905 31802 36600 34622

Std Dev 02461 04854 04568 06666 06219 04457 07157 05136 03670 04301

Skewness -02384 -06748 01142 00167 00316 -02192 02042 00811 -05114 -06862

Kurtosis 19290 25254 14961 15951 14596 18055 14998 14947 18138 20792

Jarque-Bera 61848 92090 104121 88865 106955 72860 108786 103152 110391 122905

Probability 00454 00100 00055 00118 00048 00262 00043 00058 00040 00021

Sum 4816391 4523614 4487204 3870807 4319557 4588249 4214119 4322059 4667138 4633015

Sum Sq Dev 64784 252086 223300 475453 413775 212507 548102 282235 144087 197896

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

31


Panel 1 Total Trade

Panel 2 Exports

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Panel 3 Imports


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33



level Critical

value at 5

PP Test stat at

1st Diff

Critical value at 5


Australia -2087649 -3452358 -5511474 -3452764 I(1)

Brazil -151073 -3452358 -4815699 -3452764 I(1)

Canada -1688886 -3452358 -4919794 -3452764 I(1)

China -0761713 -3452358 -4666041 -3452764 I(1)

DRCongo -2701397 -3452358 -4969701 -3452764 I(1)

Egypt -1110372 -3452358 -4587926 -3452764 I(1)

EU -2479035 -3452358 -4796753 -3452764 I(1)

Ghana -1789434 -3452358 -4749838 -3452764 I(1)

India -0176913 -3452358 -5580811 -3452764 I(1)

Indonesia -1940294 -3452358 -7723706 -3452764 I(1)

Japan -27304 -3452358 -4666113 -3452764 I(1)

Malaysia -1798537 -3452358 -5140808 -3452764 I(1)

Morocco -3427262 -3452358 -5251978 -3452764 I(1)

Nigeria -1885798 -3452358 -6573952 -3452764 I(1)

Russia -2427019 -3452358 -4584745 -3452764 I(1)

Safrica -2459347 -3452358 -5061753 -3452764 I(1)

Tanzania -2080362 -3452358 -4639207 -3452764 I(1)

Tunisia -2521464 -3452358 -4922059 -3452764 I(1)

UK -292419 -3452358 -4914527 -3452764 I(1)



34


Panel 1 Trace test



None 08119 20372650 7605409 00000

At most 1 07484 18618330 6950496 00000

At most 2 06943 17169350 6409570 00000

At most 3 06896 15925080 5945066 00000

At most 4 06813 14696730 5486505 00000

At most 5 06751 13496030 5038266 00000

At most 6 06619 12315570 4597583 00000

At most 7 06605 11176950 4172519 00000

At most 8 06570 10042670 3749076 00000

At most 9 06534 8919101 3220692 00000

At most 10 06439 7806611 2731889 00000

At most 11 06424 6722533 2282979 00001

At most 12 06365 5642802 1874701 00000

At most 13 06312 4580251 1505585 00000

At most 14 06183 3532980 1177082 00000

At most 15 05059 2521643 888038 00000

At most 16 04229 1781345 638761 00000

At most 17 03477 1204084 429153 00000

At most 18 03308 755525 258721 00000

At most 19 02723 333740 125180 00000



Max-Eigen Stat


None 08119 1754311 1262691 00000

At most 1 07484 1448984 1042928 00000

At most 2 06943 1244273 895584 00000

At most 3 06896 1228346 884120 00000

At most 4 06813 1200704 864224 00000

At most 5 06751 1180455 849650 00000

At most 6 06619 1138626 819543 00000

At most 7 06605 1134280 816415 00000

At most 8 06570 1123565 808703 00000

At most 9 06534 1112489 748375 00000

At most 10 06439 1084078 688121 00000

At most 11 06424 1079731 627522 00000

35

At most 12 06365 1062552 567052 00000

At most 13 06312 1047271 505999 00000

At most 14 06183 1011337 444972 00000

At most 15 05059 740298 383310 00000

At most 16 04229 577261 321183 00000

At most 17 03477 448558 258232 00001

At most 18 03308 421785 193870 00000

At most 19 02723 333740 125180 00000

Source Authors

36






0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Pe

rce

nta

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Horizon

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60

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Pe

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)

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37





USA 75340 31220 52535 24920 32451 80425 16142 58582

Brazil 70609 08813 89311 04341 118017 31421 34896 70440

Russia 77612 125327 110425 34878 37666 32531 20684 95616

India 37554 88615 28643 68745 14462 45156 27108 20011

China 72605 55905 65828 98491 44992 74646 19369 79720

South Africa 97203 36750 72784 35206 31078 59433 25869 68574

Australia 11614 44655 02851 08205 109096 02585 32873 15055

Canada 73007 73293 50845 17185 57174 54735 08255 60655

EU 84055 25762 66141 26268 48995 68512 12978 68320

Indonesia 19769 24314 01169 80320 18449 16285 14550 05139

Japan 85308 40028 55534 22141 62552 85835 16891 70244

Malaysia 56649 70935 37736 31557 26228 67378 19406 37956

UK 53469 16542 64573 110048 19054 107249 55380 45530

DR Congo 29744 215520 39112 71369 09432 26191 07574 32377

Egypt 43495 37493 140244 17884 31158 27479 80075 60913

Ghana 03332 39604 21476 261490 10461 04486 12166 24795

Morocco 26742 12945 28298 04647 232156 27901 47621 48632

Nigeria 30411 05806 22706 64205 14887 130388 42022 25243

Tanzania 03455 10693 03545 11170 24621 31812 501363 06036

Tunisia 48028 35778 46245 06928 57070 25551 04778 106163



Total from BRICS 258380 315410 366990 241662 246216 243188 127926 334361

Total from Asia 349497 405125 299335 336134 204349 321832 118008 308685



38




USA 84417 27346 64937 08671 58633 45316 50364 08786

Brazil 62986 17990 52082 67154 42216 23105 79339 53891

Russia 80149 22871 85737 59520 44582 03436 72180 08594

India 24108 88781 32734 41954 80329 59152 35292 31134

China 57369 67788 51214 97239 36961 03302 48212 15927

South Africa 96491 23300 70515 22174 37526 16513 58827 15241

Australia 29237 67747 29516 62979 69457 03181 43946 24635

Canada 68897 31125 55227 47717 82931 07959 61205 05466

EU 71382 41920 40932 09740 82114 44444 71835 16233

Indonesia 45443 03361 37592 03145 24308 04855 20374 05870

Japan 67811 27701 61483 42867 46307 37472 64150 53856

Malaysia 57080 08193 56191 27331 61632 42365 26281 25684

UK 79705 08899 57763 09308 18636 75911 39259 30355

DR Congo 09940 314128 04962 51581 29301 07936 32248 94814

Egypt 33338 15688 113752 57598 34201 18514 40609 16733

Ghana 14299 25910 45405 243033 14637 60390 36649 10144

Morocco 29828 91510 32439 50298 136523 28312 64231 34121

Nigeria 16423 06604 31183 17516 07315 390801 09295 68504

Tunisia 40701 34480 50979 63742 67218 35759 117458 38775

Tanzania 30396 74657 25357 16435 25175 91275 28247 441238



Total from BRICS 224613 220729 292282 288040 241613 105508 293849 124787

Total from Asia 331961 218695 324952 272055 294119 150583 266489 141065



39




USA 09188 00959 09065 00856

Brazil 08344 01108 08742 00260

Russia 08388 02094 08924 00929

India 09000 -01139 08413 -00254

China 09102 01438 08912 00402

South Africa 09028 00416 09035 00097

Australia 07105 -02842 08673 -00439

Canada 08991 00946 08986 01122

EU 09121 01077 08971 00713

Indonesia 07591 -03108 08369 -02587

Japan 08998 01361 08803 00883

Malaysia 09000 00528 08364 00472

UK 08870 00649 08808 -00493

DR Congo 07845 -00328 06859 -00974

Egypt 08598 -00230 08862 -01441

Ghana 07385 -03746 07570 -01304

Morocco 07678 -00723 08635 01011

Nigeria 08696 -01538 06092 -02776

Tanzania 04986 -03598 05588 -00770


40




USA 918838 1116203 197365 906516 1080837 174321

Brazil 834405 1048823 214418 874223 922305 48081

Russia 838838 1301518 462681 892421 1076102 183681

India 900031 715701 -184330 841338 842608 01270

China 910213 1216863 306650 891159 966746 75587

South Africa 902797 982282 79485 903509 923706 20197

Australia 710525 395694 -314831 867260 798447 -68813

Canada 899143 1089583 190440 898639 1131561 232923

EU 912144 1134632 222487 897115 1036992 139877

Indonesia 759059 405570 -353488 836906 492962 -343944

Japan 899771 1184811 285039 880287 1054533 174246

Malaysia 899995 1001143 101148 836384 922360 85975

UK 887018 1011048 124029 880782 799256 -81526

DR Congo 784480 738784 -45696 685872 576096 -109776

Egypt 859756 838059 -21696 886248 665117 -221131

Ghana 738510 364252 -374258 756967 607614 -149354

Morocco 767844 666083 -101761 863477 1066309 202831

Nigeria 869612 638121 -231491 609199 351031 -258168

Tanzania 498637 239716 -258921 558762 535112 -23650


11


as follows

119937120061 = 120630119963 + 120509120051119937120061minus120051120057120051=120783 + 120634120061 (1)















119918119917119916119933119915 119937119946120061 120634119947120061 119919 = 119941119946119947119944119919

= 120648120634119947119947minus120783 119942119946

prime120495119945120506120634119942119947 sup2119919minus120783119945=120782

119942119946prime120495119945120506120634120495119945

prime 119942119946 119919minus120783119945=120782

(3)









12








(NGFEVDs) given by2

119863 119892 = 119889 119894119895119892 where 119889 119894119895

119892=

119889119894119895119892

119889119894119895119892119873

119895=1

119889119894119895119892

= 119918119917119916119933119915 119937119946120061 120634119947120061 119919 (4)

By construction 119889 119894119895119892119873

119895=1 = 1 and 119889 119894119895119892119873


















that 119863119892119867 and 119889119894119895119892119867


respectively

13



119937120783

⋯ 1198891119895

119873

119895=1 119895 ne 1

119937120784

⋯ 1198892119895

119873

119895=1 119895 ne 2

⋮ ⋮ ⋮ ⋱

⋮ ⋮

119937119925

⋯ 119889119873119895

119873

119895=1 119895 ne 119873

To Others

1198891198941

119873

119894=1

119894 ne 1

1198891198942

119873

119894=1

119894 ne 2

⋯ 119889119894119873

119873

119894=1

119894 ne N

1

119873 119889119894119895

119873

119894 119895=1 119894 ne 119895











119919119947 = 119941119947119947 (5)






14





119917119947 = 119941119947119946119925119946=120783119946ne119947 (6)



by 119931119947) as

119931119947 = 119941119946119947119925119946=120783119946ne119947 (7)






119925119947 = 119931119947 minus 119917119947 (8)












119931119931119923119920 = 120783

119925 119917119947

119925119947=120783 =

120783

119925 119931119947

119925119947=120783 (9)

15










defined as

119926119947119919 =

119917119947

119919119947+ 119917119947 forall 119947 = 120783 120784 hellip 119925 (10)






119920119947119919 =

119925119947

119931119947+119917119947 forall 119947 = 120783 120784 hellip 119925 (11)






119919) in the





point (11)


16

















global economy















17
























0

20

40

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80

100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Pe

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18








USA 71778 29440 61788 42154 74728 43927 18340 60843

Brazil 58032 19932 55790 44390 33250 42150 14919 67961

Russia 66697 31216 64970 49067 35979 32582 25549 72983

India 55713 60962 72008 64639 46561 32564 08157 46453

China 68649 57823 73921 90160 55913 54103 16375 75379

South Africa 80744 44883 80196 65987 54168 42197 06952 75993

Australia 27148 31751 25479 38758 25946 44026 26291 34948

Canada 65383 41541 57408 37902 73538 47009 14725 55939

EU 68368 15015 57468 38353 75445 42242 12341 63107

Indonesia 23779 16606 16213 15499 09009 26810 06512 23182

Japan 68181 31048 55894 40754 77014 55484 24794 61861

Malaysia 45584 42499 33993 16137 42698 30786 55850 29298

UK 80756 15008 76576 76385 96626 78466 69155 62834

DR Congo 18171 287238 16923 29821 07776 15582 103410 20364

Egypt 60237 30150 89778 75198 46710 27362 35750 64429

Ghana 33558 41383 52468 121599 42637 46661 27242 37347

Morocco 43059 10130 40407 33048 93997 68184 52822 45226

Nigeria 13664 95792 11543 67823 28771 186518 05394 16720

Tanzania 05952 80171 03841 15953 29832 65904 451662 08304

Tunisia 44544 17412 53335 36375 49400 17444 23759 76830



Total from BRICS 249093 214816 346886 314243 225871 203596 71952 338770

Total from Asia 328605 240154 317000 276255 267174 232328 137238 309157









Brazil and USA

19





























20
















equation (8)















21







7)



USA 09225 01146

Brazil 09120 -00219

Russia 09112 00455

India 09078 -00084

China 09089 01571



Canada 09162 00942

EU 09242 00508


Japan 09058 00983

Malaysia 08912 -00356

UK 08952 01750

DR Congo 07128 -01741

Egypt 09102 00250

Ghana 08784 -00938

Morocco 09060 -00343

Nigeria 08135 -01450

Tanzania 05483 -02800







22











USA 922486 1167212 244726

Brazil 911992 874640 -37352

Russia 911225 1000613 89388

India 907825 898242 -09583

China 908903 1248026 339122

South Africa 919256 1136053 216797

Australia 920363 648580 -271782

Canada 916215 1112171 195956

EU 924230 1029565 105335

Indonesia 870173 369507 -500665

Japan 905765 1109993 204227

Malaysia 891174 833400 -57774

UK 895223 1279940 384716

DR Congo 712762 501596 -211166

Egypt 910222 960466 50244

Ghana 878401 774361 -104040

Morocco 906003 846578 -59425

Nigeria 813482 682922 -130560

Tanzania 548338 329206 -219132




4


23

















transmitters















24









25

References











ndash 505 DOI 1023072109358






South Africa













Bank EuroSystem



httpsdoiorg101111j1468-0297200802208x

26






9780199338306





9780199683666





1023072938189


















27





101257000282803321946804











43 doi 101111apel12218






1765(97)00214-0











102(30) 10421 ndash 10426 doi 101073pnas0500298102

28


Panel 1 Total trade


Mean 84011 81358 88127 67001 77455 80301 85688 74184 72914 84264

Median 84236 79800 90033 67500 83329 75169 86593 68642 71163 83149

Maximum 97207 94582 95355 101668 98959 96559 96925 102321 97017 96790

Minimum 68070 59661 74991 21419 52033 66311 71997 45609 41361 65780

Std Dev 09103 09923 06307 25939 15215 10771 07832 18510 18889 08659

Skewness -02557 -03265 -08339 -01564 -02113 01983 -03892 02254 -01552 -00788

Kurtosis 18436 20982 24076 16568 16486 13023 17853 16793 16301 18843

Jarque-Bera 71942 55790 140960 85592 90220 136781 93660 87637 88786 57136

Probability 00274 00615 00009 00138 00110 00011 00093 00125 00118 00575

Sum 9073191 8786664 9517664 7236112 8365173 8672560 9254352 8011865 7874676 9100564

Sum Sq Dev 886614 1053555 425632 7199027 2477109 1241421 656302 3666218 3817577 802300

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 87236 83778 83738 76289 82244 86661 78667 79968 86786 85707

Median 87044 84389 82930 73778 83385 86057 79551 77917 88201 86262

Maximum 95578 94754 98656 93881 95886 96149 101364 94617 95788 95813

Minimum 77730 59370 71394 59040 66530 73517 55142 63446 74210 70590

Std Dev 05861 09711 08697 11261 10013 07122 14826 10113 06881 07874

Skewness -01509 -07693 00520 00961 -00788 -03648 00245 00168 -05261 -05221

Kurtosis 16540 25582 15010 14196 14106 19515 16529 15297 18919 20504

Jarque-Bera 85624 115304 101596 114054 114789 73429 81769 97338 105077 89641

Probability 00138 00031 00062 00033 00032 00254 00168 00077 00052 00113

Sum 9421434 9048058 9043667 8239173 8882388 9359360 8495988 8636512 9372902 9256322

Sum Sq Dev 367539 1009027 809327 1356855 1072816 542746 2351912 1094302 506657 663408

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

29

Panel 2 Exports


Mean 43295 41726 44997 33564 39203 39204 42884 37423 36712 41902

Median 43989 42513 46369 33563 40228 37215 43260 34893 36168 41063

Maximum 49267 47480 48047 50647 51078 48075 48591 52280 49347 48121

Minimum 35181 32658 38487 10999 28248 31282 35764 22685 20866 32299

Std Dev 03567 04627 02889 12951 07307 05704 03974 09473 09485 04404

Skewness -05126 -03390 -11139 -01593 01003 01444 -03788 02615 -01339 -00785

Kurtosis 24040 16695 28948 16237 17569 13333 18292 17687 15771 19101

Jarque-Bera 63277 100352 223840 89813 71350 128756 87513 80535 94336 54568

Probability 00423 00066 00000 00112 00282 00016 00126 00178 00089 00653

Sum 4675847 4506379 4859645 3624899 4233933 4234076 4631435 4041731 3964876 4525383

Sum Sq Dev 136178 229032 89333 1794823 571317 348181 168996 960184 962699 207557

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 42639 41893 42189 40448 42248 44177 39647 39949 43572 42808

Median 42484 42653 42154 38822 43018 44454 41144 39034 43987 42616

Maximum 47407 47004 48937 48585 47489 47584 52432 47544 47638 47884

Minimum 36895 30077 36326 33208 34602 38788 25067 31643 37575 35685

Std Dev 03435 04889 04158 05011 03967 02711 07820 04997 03222 03643

Skewness -00975 -08534 -00141 03327 -03128 -05993 -02009 -00408 -05455 -02672

Kurtosis 15123 25749 15233 15819 16434 21907 19619 15902 19928 19945

Jarque-Bera 101311 139237 98169 110416 100430 94126 55756 89743 99206 58349

Probability 00063 00009 00074 00040 00066 00090 00616 00113 00070 00541

Sum 4605043 4524443 4556463 4368366 4562831 4771111 4281869 4314453 4705765 4623307

Sum Sq Dev 126277 255735 184992 268627 168392 78665 654348 267198 111068 141975

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

30

Panel 3 Imports


Mean 40716 39632 43130 33437 38252 41097 42805 36761 36202 42363

Median 40293 38797 43425 33938 42632 38025 43333 33749 34995 42524

Maximum 48275 47789 47365 51059 47958 48484 48334 50553 48606 48670

Minimum 31854 27002 36458 10124 23431 34572 36232 22924 19763 33482

Std Dev 05623 05535 03511 13000 08121 05130 03861 09070 09426 04291

Skewness -01054 -02950 -05179 -01564 -04266 02822 -03998 01867 -01796 -00986

Kurtosis 16142 23579 19916 16996 17030 13341 17464 15966 16997 18396

Jarque-Bera 88414 34218 94030 80500 108455 139220 99495 94901 81891 62349

Probability 00120 01807 00091 00179 00044 00009 00069 00087 00167 00443

Sum 4397345 4280285 4658019 3611214 4131240 4438484 4622917 3970134 3909800 4575180

Sum Sq Dev 338298 327825 131914 1808338 705702 281581 159501 880160 950711 197015

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 44596 41885 41548 35841 39996 42484 39020 40019 43214 42898

Median 44561 41759 40821 35106 40211 41620 38407 38883 44214 44011

Maximum 48381 47750 49720 46132 49229 48587 49650 47288 48210 47980

Minimum 40342 29293 35068 24090 30390 34645 29905 31802 36600 34622

Std Dev 02461 04854 04568 06666 06219 04457 07157 05136 03670 04301

Skewness -02384 -06748 01142 00167 00316 -02192 02042 00811 -05114 -06862

Kurtosis 19290 25254 14961 15951 14596 18055 14998 14947 18138 20792

Jarque-Bera 61848 92090 104121 88865 106955 72860 108786 103152 110391 122905

Probability 00454 00100 00055 00118 00048 00262 00043 00058 00040 00021

Sum 4816391 4523614 4487204 3870807 4319557 4588249 4214119 4322059 4667138 4633015

Sum Sq Dev 64784 252086 223300 475453 413775 212507 548102 282235 144087 197896

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

31


Panel 1 Total Trade

Panel 2 Exports

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Panel 3 Imports


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level Critical

value at 5

PP Test stat at

1st Diff

Critical value at 5


Australia -2087649 -3452358 -5511474 -3452764 I(1)

Brazil -151073 -3452358 -4815699 -3452764 I(1)

Canada -1688886 -3452358 -4919794 -3452764 I(1)

China -0761713 -3452358 -4666041 -3452764 I(1)

DRCongo -2701397 -3452358 -4969701 -3452764 I(1)

Egypt -1110372 -3452358 -4587926 -3452764 I(1)

EU -2479035 -3452358 -4796753 -3452764 I(1)

Ghana -1789434 -3452358 -4749838 -3452764 I(1)

India -0176913 -3452358 -5580811 -3452764 I(1)

Indonesia -1940294 -3452358 -7723706 -3452764 I(1)

Japan -27304 -3452358 -4666113 -3452764 I(1)

Malaysia -1798537 -3452358 -5140808 -3452764 I(1)

Morocco -3427262 -3452358 -5251978 -3452764 I(1)

Nigeria -1885798 -3452358 -6573952 -3452764 I(1)

Russia -2427019 -3452358 -4584745 -3452764 I(1)

Safrica -2459347 -3452358 -5061753 -3452764 I(1)

Tanzania -2080362 -3452358 -4639207 -3452764 I(1)

Tunisia -2521464 -3452358 -4922059 -3452764 I(1)

UK -292419 -3452358 -4914527 -3452764 I(1)



34


Panel 1 Trace test



None 08119 20372650 7605409 00000

At most 1 07484 18618330 6950496 00000

At most 2 06943 17169350 6409570 00000

At most 3 06896 15925080 5945066 00000

At most 4 06813 14696730 5486505 00000

At most 5 06751 13496030 5038266 00000

At most 6 06619 12315570 4597583 00000

At most 7 06605 11176950 4172519 00000

At most 8 06570 10042670 3749076 00000

At most 9 06534 8919101 3220692 00000

At most 10 06439 7806611 2731889 00000

At most 11 06424 6722533 2282979 00001

At most 12 06365 5642802 1874701 00000

At most 13 06312 4580251 1505585 00000

At most 14 06183 3532980 1177082 00000

At most 15 05059 2521643 888038 00000

At most 16 04229 1781345 638761 00000

At most 17 03477 1204084 429153 00000

At most 18 03308 755525 258721 00000

At most 19 02723 333740 125180 00000



Max-Eigen Stat


None 08119 1754311 1262691 00000

At most 1 07484 1448984 1042928 00000

At most 2 06943 1244273 895584 00000

At most 3 06896 1228346 884120 00000

At most 4 06813 1200704 864224 00000

At most 5 06751 1180455 849650 00000

At most 6 06619 1138626 819543 00000

At most 7 06605 1134280 816415 00000

At most 8 06570 1123565 808703 00000

At most 9 06534 1112489 748375 00000

At most 10 06439 1084078 688121 00000

At most 11 06424 1079731 627522 00000

35

At most 12 06365 1062552 567052 00000

At most 13 06312 1047271 505999 00000

At most 14 06183 1011337 444972 00000

At most 15 05059 740298 383310 00000

At most 16 04229 577261 321183 00000

At most 17 03477 448558 258232 00001

At most 18 03308 421785 193870 00000

At most 19 02723 333740 125180 00000

Source Authors

36






0

10

20

30

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50

60

70

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90

100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Pe

rce

nta

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5)

Horizon

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Pe

rce

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)

Horizon

37





USA 75340 31220 52535 24920 32451 80425 16142 58582

Brazil 70609 08813 89311 04341 118017 31421 34896 70440

Russia 77612 125327 110425 34878 37666 32531 20684 95616

India 37554 88615 28643 68745 14462 45156 27108 20011

China 72605 55905 65828 98491 44992 74646 19369 79720

South Africa 97203 36750 72784 35206 31078 59433 25869 68574

Australia 11614 44655 02851 08205 109096 02585 32873 15055

Canada 73007 73293 50845 17185 57174 54735 08255 60655

EU 84055 25762 66141 26268 48995 68512 12978 68320

Indonesia 19769 24314 01169 80320 18449 16285 14550 05139

Japan 85308 40028 55534 22141 62552 85835 16891 70244

Malaysia 56649 70935 37736 31557 26228 67378 19406 37956

UK 53469 16542 64573 110048 19054 107249 55380 45530

DR Congo 29744 215520 39112 71369 09432 26191 07574 32377

Egypt 43495 37493 140244 17884 31158 27479 80075 60913

Ghana 03332 39604 21476 261490 10461 04486 12166 24795

Morocco 26742 12945 28298 04647 232156 27901 47621 48632

Nigeria 30411 05806 22706 64205 14887 130388 42022 25243

Tanzania 03455 10693 03545 11170 24621 31812 501363 06036

Tunisia 48028 35778 46245 06928 57070 25551 04778 106163



Total from BRICS 258380 315410 366990 241662 246216 243188 127926 334361

Total from Asia 349497 405125 299335 336134 204349 321832 118008 308685



38




USA 84417 27346 64937 08671 58633 45316 50364 08786

Brazil 62986 17990 52082 67154 42216 23105 79339 53891

Russia 80149 22871 85737 59520 44582 03436 72180 08594

India 24108 88781 32734 41954 80329 59152 35292 31134

China 57369 67788 51214 97239 36961 03302 48212 15927

South Africa 96491 23300 70515 22174 37526 16513 58827 15241

Australia 29237 67747 29516 62979 69457 03181 43946 24635

Canada 68897 31125 55227 47717 82931 07959 61205 05466

EU 71382 41920 40932 09740 82114 44444 71835 16233

Indonesia 45443 03361 37592 03145 24308 04855 20374 05870

Japan 67811 27701 61483 42867 46307 37472 64150 53856

Malaysia 57080 08193 56191 27331 61632 42365 26281 25684

UK 79705 08899 57763 09308 18636 75911 39259 30355

DR Congo 09940 314128 04962 51581 29301 07936 32248 94814

Egypt 33338 15688 113752 57598 34201 18514 40609 16733

Ghana 14299 25910 45405 243033 14637 60390 36649 10144

Morocco 29828 91510 32439 50298 136523 28312 64231 34121

Nigeria 16423 06604 31183 17516 07315 390801 09295 68504

Tunisia 40701 34480 50979 63742 67218 35759 117458 38775

Tanzania 30396 74657 25357 16435 25175 91275 28247 441238



Total from BRICS 224613 220729 292282 288040 241613 105508 293849 124787

Total from Asia 331961 218695 324952 272055 294119 150583 266489 141065



39




USA 09188 00959 09065 00856

Brazil 08344 01108 08742 00260

Russia 08388 02094 08924 00929

India 09000 -01139 08413 -00254

China 09102 01438 08912 00402

South Africa 09028 00416 09035 00097

Australia 07105 -02842 08673 -00439

Canada 08991 00946 08986 01122

EU 09121 01077 08971 00713

Indonesia 07591 -03108 08369 -02587

Japan 08998 01361 08803 00883

Malaysia 09000 00528 08364 00472

UK 08870 00649 08808 -00493

DR Congo 07845 -00328 06859 -00974

Egypt 08598 -00230 08862 -01441

Ghana 07385 -03746 07570 -01304

Morocco 07678 -00723 08635 01011

Nigeria 08696 -01538 06092 -02776

Tanzania 04986 -03598 05588 -00770


40




USA 918838 1116203 197365 906516 1080837 174321

Brazil 834405 1048823 214418 874223 922305 48081

Russia 838838 1301518 462681 892421 1076102 183681

India 900031 715701 -184330 841338 842608 01270

China 910213 1216863 306650 891159 966746 75587

South Africa 902797 982282 79485 903509 923706 20197

Australia 710525 395694 -314831 867260 798447 -68813

Canada 899143 1089583 190440 898639 1131561 232923

EU 912144 1134632 222487 897115 1036992 139877

Indonesia 759059 405570 -353488 836906 492962 -343944

Japan 899771 1184811 285039 880287 1054533 174246

Malaysia 899995 1001143 101148 836384 922360 85975

UK 887018 1011048 124029 880782 799256 -81526

DR Congo 784480 738784 -45696 685872 576096 -109776

Egypt 859756 838059 -21696 886248 665117 -221131

Ghana 738510 364252 -374258 756967 607614 -149354

Morocco 767844 666083 -101761 863477 1066309 202831

Nigeria 869612 638121 -231491 609199 351031 -258168

Tanzania 498637 239716 -258921 558762 535112 -23650


12








(NGFEVDs) given by2

119863 119892 = 119889 119894119895119892 where 119889 119894119895

119892=

119889119894119895119892

119889119894119895119892119873

119895=1

119889119894119895119892

= 119918119917119916119933119915 119937119946120061 120634119947120061 119919 (4)

By construction 119889 119894119895119892119873

119895=1 = 1 and 119889 119894119895119892119873


















that 119863119892119867 and 119889119894119895119892119867


respectively

13



119937120783

⋯ 1198891119895

119873

119895=1 119895 ne 1

119937120784

⋯ 1198892119895

119873

119895=1 119895 ne 2

⋮ ⋮ ⋮ ⋱

⋮ ⋮

119937119925

⋯ 119889119873119895

119873

119895=1 119895 ne 119873

To Others

1198891198941

119873

119894=1

119894 ne 1

1198891198942

119873

119894=1

119894 ne 2

⋯ 119889119894119873

119873

119894=1

119894 ne N

1

119873 119889119894119895

119873

119894 119895=1 119894 ne 119895











119919119947 = 119941119947119947 (5)






14





119917119947 = 119941119947119946119925119946=120783119946ne119947 (6)



by 119931119947) as

119931119947 = 119941119946119947119925119946=120783119946ne119947 (7)






119925119947 = 119931119947 minus 119917119947 (8)












119931119931119923119920 = 120783

119925 119917119947

119925119947=120783 =

120783

119925 119931119947

119925119947=120783 (9)

15










defined as

119926119947119919 =

119917119947

119919119947+ 119917119947 forall 119947 = 120783 120784 hellip 119925 (10)






119920119947119919 =

119925119947

119931119947+119917119947 forall 119947 = 120783 120784 hellip 119925 (11)






119919) in the





point (11)


16

















global economy















17
























0

20

40

60

80

100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Pe

rce

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ge (

)

Horizon

18








USA 71778 29440 61788 42154 74728 43927 18340 60843

Brazil 58032 19932 55790 44390 33250 42150 14919 67961

Russia 66697 31216 64970 49067 35979 32582 25549 72983

India 55713 60962 72008 64639 46561 32564 08157 46453

China 68649 57823 73921 90160 55913 54103 16375 75379

South Africa 80744 44883 80196 65987 54168 42197 06952 75993

Australia 27148 31751 25479 38758 25946 44026 26291 34948

Canada 65383 41541 57408 37902 73538 47009 14725 55939

EU 68368 15015 57468 38353 75445 42242 12341 63107

Indonesia 23779 16606 16213 15499 09009 26810 06512 23182

Japan 68181 31048 55894 40754 77014 55484 24794 61861

Malaysia 45584 42499 33993 16137 42698 30786 55850 29298

UK 80756 15008 76576 76385 96626 78466 69155 62834

DR Congo 18171 287238 16923 29821 07776 15582 103410 20364

Egypt 60237 30150 89778 75198 46710 27362 35750 64429

Ghana 33558 41383 52468 121599 42637 46661 27242 37347

Morocco 43059 10130 40407 33048 93997 68184 52822 45226

Nigeria 13664 95792 11543 67823 28771 186518 05394 16720

Tanzania 05952 80171 03841 15953 29832 65904 451662 08304

Tunisia 44544 17412 53335 36375 49400 17444 23759 76830



Total from BRICS 249093 214816 346886 314243 225871 203596 71952 338770

Total from Asia 328605 240154 317000 276255 267174 232328 137238 309157









Brazil and USA

19





























20
















equation (8)















21







7)



USA 09225 01146

Brazil 09120 -00219

Russia 09112 00455

India 09078 -00084

China 09089 01571



Canada 09162 00942

EU 09242 00508


Japan 09058 00983

Malaysia 08912 -00356

UK 08952 01750

DR Congo 07128 -01741

Egypt 09102 00250

Ghana 08784 -00938

Morocco 09060 -00343

Nigeria 08135 -01450

Tanzania 05483 -02800







22











USA 922486 1167212 244726

Brazil 911992 874640 -37352

Russia 911225 1000613 89388

India 907825 898242 -09583

China 908903 1248026 339122

South Africa 919256 1136053 216797

Australia 920363 648580 -271782

Canada 916215 1112171 195956

EU 924230 1029565 105335

Indonesia 870173 369507 -500665

Japan 905765 1109993 204227

Malaysia 891174 833400 -57774

UK 895223 1279940 384716

DR Congo 712762 501596 -211166

Egypt 910222 960466 50244

Ghana 878401 774361 -104040

Morocco 906003 846578 -59425

Nigeria 813482 682922 -130560

Tanzania 548338 329206 -219132




4


23

















transmitters















24









25

References











ndash 505 DOI 1023072109358






South Africa













Bank EuroSystem



httpsdoiorg101111j1468-0297200802208x

26






9780199338306





9780199683666





1023072938189


















27





101257000282803321946804











43 doi 101111apel12218






1765(97)00214-0











102(30) 10421 ndash 10426 doi 101073pnas0500298102

28


Panel 1 Total trade


Mean 84011 81358 88127 67001 77455 80301 85688 74184 72914 84264

Median 84236 79800 90033 67500 83329 75169 86593 68642 71163 83149

Maximum 97207 94582 95355 101668 98959 96559 96925 102321 97017 96790

Minimum 68070 59661 74991 21419 52033 66311 71997 45609 41361 65780

Std Dev 09103 09923 06307 25939 15215 10771 07832 18510 18889 08659

Skewness -02557 -03265 -08339 -01564 -02113 01983 -03892 02254 -01552 -00788

Kurtosis 18436 20982 24076 16568 16486 13023 17853 16793 16301 18843

Jarque-Bera 71942 55790 140960 85592 90220 136781 93660 87637 88786 57136

Probability 00274 00615 00009 00138 00110 00011 00093 00125 00118 00575

Sum 9073191 8786664 9517664 7236112 8365173 8672560 9254352 8011865 7874676 9100564

Sum Sq Dev 886614 1053555 425632 7199027 2477109 1241421 656302 3666218 3817577 802300

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 87236 83778 83738 76289 82244 86661 78667 79968 86786 85707

Median 87044 84389 82930 73778 83385 86057 79551 77917 88201 86262

Maximum 95578 94754 98656 93881 95886 96149 101364 94617 95788 95813

Minimum 77730 59370 71394 59040 66530 73517 55142 63446 74210 70590

Std Dev 05861 09711 08697 11261 10013 07122 14826 10113 06881 07874

Skewness -01509 -07693 00520 00961 -00788 -03648 00245 00168 -05261 -05221

Kurtosis 16540 25582 15010 14196 14106 19515 16529 15297 18919 20504

Jarque-Bera 85624 115304 101596 114054 114789 73429 81769 97338 105077 89641

Probability 00138 00031 00062 00033 00032 00254 00168 00077 00052 00113

Sum 9421434 9048058 9043667 8239173 8882388 9359360 8495988 8636512 9372902 9256322

Sum Sq Dev 367539 1009027 809327 1356855 1072816 542746 2351912 1094302 506657 663408

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

29

Panel 2 Exports


Mean 43295 41726 44997 33564 39203 39204 42884 37423 36712 41902

Median 43989 42513 46369 33563 40228 37215 43260 34893 36168 41063

Maximum 49267 47480 48047 50647 51078 48075 48591 52280 49347 48121

Minimum 35181 32658 38487 10999 28248 31282 35764 22685 20866 32299

Std Dev 03567 04627 02889 12951 07307 05704 03974 09473 09485 04404

Skewness -05126 -03390 -11139 -01593 01003 01444 -03788 02615 -01339 -00785

Kurtosis 24040 16695 28948 16237 17569 13333 18292 17687 15771 19101

Jarque-Bera 63277 100352 223840 89813 71350 128756 87513 80535 94336 54568

Probability 00423 00066 00000 00112 00282 00016 00126 00178 00089 00653

Sum 4675847 4506379 4859645 3624899 4233933 4234076 4631435 4041731 3964876 4525383

Sum Sq Dev 136178 229032 89333 1794823 571317 348181 168996 960184 962699 207557

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 42639 41893 42189 40448 42248 44177 39647 39949 43572 42808

Median 42484 42653 42154 38822 43018 44454 41144 39034 43987 42616

Maximum 47407 47004 48937 48585 47489 47584 52432 47544 47638 47884

Minimum 36895 30077 36326 33208 34602 38788 25067 31643 37575 35685

Std Dev 03435 04889 04158 05011 03967 02711 07820 04997 03222 03643

Skewness -00975 -08534 -00141 03327 -03128 -05993 -02009 -00408 -05455 -02672

Kurtosis 15123 25749 15233 15819 16434 21907 19619 15902 19928 19945

Jarque-Bera 101311 139237 98169 110416 100430 94126 55756 89743 99206 58349

Probability 00063 00009 00074 00040 00066 00090 00616 00113 00070 00541

Sum 4605043 4524443 4556463 4368366 4562831 4771111 4281869 4314453 4705765 4623307

Sum Sq Dev 126277 255735 184992 268627 168392 78665 654348 267198 111068 141975

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

30

Panel 3 Imports


Mean 40716 39632 43130 33437 38252 41097 42805 36761 36202 42363

Median 40293 38797 43425 33938 42632 38025 43333 33749 34995 42524

Maximum 48275 47789 47365 51059 47958 48484 48334 50553 48606 48670

Minimum 31854 27002 36458 10124 23431 34572 36232 22924 19763 33482

Std Dev 05623 05535 03511 13000 08121 05130 03861 09070 09426 04291

Skewness -01054 -02950 -05179 -01564 -04266 02822 -03998 01867 -01796 -00986

Kurtosis 16142 23579 19916 16996 17030 13341 17464 15966 16997 18396

Jarque-Bera 88414 34218 94030 80500 108455 139220 99495 94901 81891 62349

Probability 00120 01807 00091 00179 00044 00009 00069 00087 00167 00443

Sum 4397345 4280285 4658019 3611214 4131240 4438484 4622917 3970134 3909800 4575180

Sum Sq Dev 338298 327825 131914 1808338 705702 281581 159501 880160 950711 197015

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 44596 41885 41548 35841 39996 42484 39020 40019 43214 42898

Median 44561 41759 40821 35106 40211 41620 38407 38883 44214 44011

Maximum 48381 47750 49720 46132 49229 48587 49650 47288 48210 47980

Minimum 40342 29293 35068 24090 30390 34645 29905 31802 36600 34622

Std Dev 02461 04854 04568 06666 06219 04457 07157 05136 03670 04301

Skewness -02384 -06748 01142 00167 00316 -02192 02042 00811 -05114 -06862

Kurtosis 19290 25254 14961 15951 14596 18055 14998 14947 18138 20792

Jarque-Bera 61848 92090 104121 88865 106955 72860 108786 103152 110391 122905

Probability 00454 00100 00055 00118 00048 00262 00043 00058 00040 00021

Sum 4816391 4523614 4487204 3870807 4319557 4588249 4214119 4322059 4667138 4633015

Sum Sq Dev 64784 252086 223300 475453 413775 212507 548102 282235 144087 197896

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

31


Panel 1 Total Trade

Panel 2 Exports

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Panel 3 Imports


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level Critical

value at 5

PP Test stat at

1st Diff

Critical value at 5


Australia -2087649 -3452358 -5511474 -3452764 I(1)

Brazil -151073 -3452358 -4815699 -3452764 I(1)

Canada -1688886 -3452358 -4919794 -3452764 I(1)

China -0761713 -3452358 -4666041 -3452764 I(1)

DRCongo -2701397 -3452358 -4969701 -3452764 I(1)

Egypt -1110372 -3452358 -4587926 -3452764 I(1)

EU -2479035 -3452358 -4796753 -3452764 I(1)

Ghana -1789434 -3452358 -4749838 -3452764 I(1)

India -0176913 -3452358 -5580811 -3452764 I(1)

Indonesia -1940294 -3452358 -7723706 -3452764 I(1)

Japan -27304 -3452358 -4666113 -3452764 I(1)

Malaysia -1798537 -3452358 -5140808 -3452764 I(1)

Morocco -3427262 -3452358 -5251978 -3452764 I(1)

Nigeria -1885798 -3452358 -6573952 -3452764 I(1)

Russia -2427019 -3452358 -4584745 -3452764 I(1)

Safrica -2459347 -3452358 -5061753 -3452764 I(1)

Tanzania -2080362 -3452358 -4639207 -3452764 I(1)

Tunisia -2521464 -3452358 -4922059 -3452764 I(1)

UK -292419 -3452358 -4914527 -3452764 I(1)



34


Panel 1 Trace test



None 08119 20372650 7605409 00000

At most 1 07484 18618330 6950496 00000

At most 2 06943 17169350 6409570 00000

At most 3 06896 15925080 5945066 00000

At most 4 06813 14696730 5486505 00000

At most 5 06751 13496030 5038266 00000

At most 6 06619 12315570 4597583 00000

At most 7 06605 11176950 4172519 00000

At most 8 06570 10042670 3749076 00000

At most 9 06534 8919101 3220692 00000

At most 10 06439 7806611 2731889 00000

At most 11 06424 6722533 2282979 00001

At most 12 06365 5642802 1874701 00000

At most 13 06312 4580251 1505585 00000

At most 14 06183 3532980 1177082 00000

At most 15 05059 2521643 888038 00000

At most 16 04229 1781345 638761 00000

At most 17 03477 1204084 429153 00000

At most 18 03308 755525 258721 00000

At most 19 02723 333740 125180 00000



Max-Eigen Stat


None 08119 1754311 1262691 00000

At most 1 07484 1448984 1042928 00000

At most 2 06943 1244273 895584 00000

At most 3 06896 1228346 884120 00000

At most 4 06813 1200704 864224 00000

At most 5 06751 1180455 849650 00000

At most 6 06619 1138626 819543 00000

At most 7 06605 1134280 816415 00000

At most 8 06570 1123565 808703 00000

At most 9 06534 1112489 748375 00000

At most 10 06439 1084078 688121 00000

At most 11 06424 1079731 627522 00000

35

At most 12 06365 1062552 567052 00000

At most 13 06312 1047271 505999 00000

At most 14 06183 1011337 444972 00000

At most 15 05059 740298 383310 00000

At most 16 04229 577261 321183 00000

At most 17 03477 448558 258232 00001

At most 18 03308 421785 193870 00000

At most 19 02723 333740 125180 00000

Source Authors

36






0

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100

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37





USA 75340 31220 52535 24920 32451 80425 16142 58582

Brazil 70609 08813 89311 04341 118017 31421 34896 70440

Russia 77612 125327 110425 34878 37666 32531 20684 95616

India 37554 88615 28643 68745 14462 45156 27108 20011

China 72605 55905 65828 98491 44992 74646 19369 79720

South Africa 97203 36750 72784 35206 31078 59433 25869 68574

Australia 11614 44655 02851 08205 109096 02585 32873 15055

Canada 73007 73293 50845 17185 57174 54735 08255 60655

EU 84055 25762 66141 26268 48995 68512 12978 68320

Indonesia 19769 24314 01169 80320 18449 16285 14550 05139

Japan 85308 40028 55534 22141 62552 85835 16891 70244

Malaysia 56649 70935 37736 31557 26228 67378 19406 37956

UK 53469 16542 64573 110048 19054 107249 55380 45530

DR Congo 29744 215520 39112 71369 09432 26191 07574 32377

Egypt 43495 37493 140244 17884 31158 27479 80075 60913

Ghana 03332 39604 21476 261490 10461 04486 12166 24795

Morocco 26742 12945 28298 04647 232156 27901 47621 48632

Nigeria 30411 05806 22706 64205 14887 130388 42022 25243

Tanzania 03455 10693 03545 11170 24621 31812 501363 06036

Tunisia 48028 35778 46245 06928 57070 25551 04778 106163



Total from BRICS 258380 315410 366990 241662 246216 243188 127926 334361

Total from Asia 349497 405125 299335 336134 204349 321832 118008 308685



38




USA 84417 27346 64937 08671 58633 45316 50364 08786

Brazil 62986 17990 52082 67154 42216 23105 79339 53891

Russia 80149 22871 85737 59520 44582 03436 72180 08594

India 24108 88781 32734 41954 80329 59152 35292 31134

China 57369 67788 51214 97239 36961 03302 48212 15927

South Africa 96491 23300 70515 22174 37526 16513 58827 15241

Australia 29237 67747 29516 62979 69457 03181 43946 24635

Canada 68897 31125 55227 47717 82931 07959 61205 05466

EU 71382 41920 40932 09740 82114 44444 71835 16233

Indonesia 45443 03361 37592 03145 24308 04855 20374 05870

Japan 67811 27701 61483 42867 46307 37472 64150 53856

Malaysia 57080 08193 56191 27331 61632 42365 26281 25684

UK 79705 08899 57763 09308 18636 75911 39259 30355

DR Congo 09940 314128 04962 51581 29301 07936 32248 94814

Egypt 33338 15688 113752 57598 34201 18514 40609 16733

Ghana 14299 25910 45405 243033 14637 60390 36649 10144

Morocco 29828 91510 32439 50298 136523 28312 64231 34121

Nigeria 16423 06604 31183 17516 07315 390801 09295 68504

Tunisia 40701 34480 50979 63742 67218 35759 117458 38775

Tanzania 30396 74657 25357 16435 25175 91275 28247 441238



Total from BRICS 224613 220729 292282 288040 241613 105508 293849 124787

Total from Asia 331961 218695 324952 272055 294119 150583 266489 141065



39




USA 09188 00959 09065 00856

Brazil 08344 01108 08742 00260

Russia 08388 02094 08924 00929

India 09000 -01139 08413 -00254

China 09102 01438 08912 00402

South Africa 09028 00416 09035 00097

Australia 07105 -02842 08673 -00439

Canada 08991 00946 08986 01122

EU 09121 01077 08971 00713

Indonesia 07591 -03108 08369 -02587

Japan 08998 01361 08803 00883

Malaysia 09000 00528 08364 00472

UK 08870 00649 08808 -00493

DR Congo 07845 -00328 06859 -00974

Egypt 08598 -00230 08862 -01441

Ghana 07385 -03746 07570 -01304

Morocco 07678 -00723 08635 01011

Nigeria 08696 -01538 06092 -02776

Tanzania 04986 -03598 05588 -00770


40




USA 918838 1116203 197365 906516 1080837 174321

Brazil 834405 1048823 214418 874223 922305 48081

Russia 838838 1301518 462681 892421 1076102 183681

India 900031 715701 -184330 841338 842608 01270

China 910213 1216863 306650 891159 966746 75587

South Africa 902797 982282 79485 903509 923706 20197

Australia 710525 395694 -314831 867260 798447 -68813

Canada 899143 1089583 190440 898639 1131561 232923

EU 912144 1134632 222487 897115 1036992 139877

Indonesia 759059 405570 -353488 836906 492962 -343944

Japan 899771 1184811 285039 880287 1054533 174246

Malaysia 899995 1001143 101148 836384 922360 85975

UK 887018 1011048 124029 880782 799256 -81526

DR Congo 784480 738784 -45696 685872 576096 -109776

Egypt 859756 838059 -21696 886248 665117 -221131

Ghana 738510 364252 -374258 756967 607614 -149354

Morocco 767844 666083 -101761 863477 1066309 202831

Nigeria 869612 638121 -231491 609199 351031 -258168

Tanzania 498637 239716 -258921 558762 535112 -23650


13



119937120783

⋯ 1198891119895

119873

119895=1 119895 ne 1

119937120784

⋯ 1198892119895

119873

119895=1 119895 ne 2

⋮ ⋮ ⋮ ⋱

⋮ ⋮

119937119925

⋯ 119889119873119895

119873

119895=1 119895 ne 119873

To Others

1198891198941

119873

119894=1

119894 ne 1

1198891198942

119873

119894=1

119894 ne 2

⋯ 119889119894119873

119873

119894=1

119894 ne N

1

119873 119889119894119895

119873

119894 119895=1 119894 ne 119895











119919119947 = 119941119947119947 (5)






14





119917119947 = 119941119947119946119925119946=120783119946ne119947 (6)



by 119931119947) as

119931119947 = 119941119946119947119925119946=120783119946ne119947 (7)






119925119947 = 119931119947 minus 119917119947 (8)












119931119931119923119920 = 120783

119925 119917119947

119925119947=120783 =

120783

119925 119931119947

119925119947=120783 (9)

15










defined as

119926119947119919 =

119917119947

119919119947+ 119917119947 forall 119947 = 120783 120784 hellip 119925 (10)






119920119947119919 =

119925119947

119931119947+119917119947 forall 119947 = 120783 120784 hellip 119925 (11)






119919) in the





point (11)


16

















global economy















17
























0

20

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Pe

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18








USA 71778 29440 61788 42154 74728 43927 18340 60843

Brazil 58032 19932 55790 44390 33250 42150 14919 67961

Russia 66697 31216 64970 49067 35979 32582 25549 72983

India 55713 60962 72008 64639 46561 32564 08157 46453

China 68649 57823 73921 90160 55913 54103 16375 75379

South Africa 80744 44883 80196 65987 54168 42197 06952 75993

Australia 27148 31751 25479 38758 25946 44026 26291 34948

Canada 65383 41541 57408 37902 73538 47009 14725 55939

EU 68368 15015 57468 38353 75445 42242 12341 63107

Indonesia 23779 16606 16213 15499 09009 26810 06512 23182

Japan 68181 31048 55894 40754 77014 55484 24794 61861

Malaysia 45584 42499 33993 16137 42698 30786 55850 29298

UK 80756 15008 76576 76385 96626 78466 69155 62834

DR Congo 18171 287238 16923 29821 07776 15582 103410 20364

Egypt 60237 30150 89778 75198 46710 27362 35750 64429

Ghana 33558 41383 52468 121599 42637 46661 27242 37347

Morocco 43059 10130 40407 33048 93997 68184 52822 45226

Nigeria 13664 95792 11543 67823 28771 186518 05394 16720

Tanzania 05952 80171 03841 15953 29832 65904 451662 08304

Tunisia 44544 17412 53335 36375 49400 17444 23759 76830



Total from BRICS 249093 214816 346886 314243 225871 203596 71952 338770

Total from Asia 328605 240154 317000 276255 267174 232328 137238 309157









Brazil and USA

19





























20
















equation (8)















21







7)



USA 09225 01146

Brazil 09120 -00219

Russia 09112 00455

India 09078 -00084

China 09089 01571



Canada 09162 00942

EU 09242 00508


Japan 09058 00983

Malaysia 08912 -00356

UK 08952 01750

DR Congo 07128 -01741

Egypt 09102 00250

Ghana 08784 -00938

Morocco 09060 -00343

Nigeria 08135 -01450

Tanzania 05483 -02800







22











USA 922486 1167212 244726

Brazil 911992 874640 -37352

Russia 911225 1000613 89388

India 907825 898242 -09583

China 908903 1248026 339122

South Africa 919256 1136053 216797

Australia 920363 648580 -271782

Canada 916215 1112171 195956

EU 924230 1029565 105335

Indonesia 870173 369507 -500665

Japan 905765 1109993 204227

Malaysia 891174 833400 -57774

UK 895223 1279940 384716

DR Congo 712762 501596 -211166

Egypt 910222 960466 50244

Ghana 878401 774361 -104040

Morocco 906003 846578 -59425

Nigeria 813482 682922 -130560

Tanzania 548338 329206 -219132




4


23

















transmitters















24









25

References











ndash 505 DOI 1023072109358






South Africa













Bank EuroSystem



httpsdoiorg101111j1468-0297200802208x

26






9780199338306





9780199683666





1023072938189


















27





101257000282803321946804











43 doi 101111apel12218






1765(97)00214-0











102(30) 10421 ndash 10426 doi 101073pnas0500298102

28


Panel 1 Total trade


Mean 84011 81358 88127 67001 77455 80301 85688 74184 72914 84264

Median 84236 79800 90033 67500 83329 75169 86593 68642 71163 83149

Maximum 97207 94582 95355 101668 98959 96559 96925 102321 97017 96790

Minimum 68070 59661 74991 21419 52033 66311 71997 45609 41361 65780

Std Dev 09103 09923 06307 25939 15215 10771 07832 18510 18889 08659

Skewness -02557 -03265 -08339 -01564 -02113 01983 -03892 02254 -01552 -00788

Kurtosis 18436 20982 24076 16568 16486 13023 17853 16793 16301 18843

Jarque-Bera 71942 55790 140960 85592 90220 136781 93660 87637 88786 57136

Probability 00274 00615 00009 00138 00110 00011 00093 00125 00118 00575

Sum 9073191 8786664 9517664 7236112 8365173 8672560 9254352 8011865 7874676 9100564

Sum Sq Dev 886614 1053555 425632 7199027 2477109 1241421 656302 3666218 3817577 802300

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 87236 83778 83738 76289 82244 86661 78667 79968 86786 85707

Median 87044 84389 82930 73778 83385 86057 79551 77917 88201 86262

Maximum 95578 94754 98656 93881 95886 96149 101364 94617 95788 95813

Minimum 77730 59370 71394 59040 66530 73517 55142 63446 74210 70590

Std Dev 05861 09711 08697 11261 10013 07122 14826 10113 06881 07874

Skewness -01509 -07693 00520 00961 -00788 -03648 00245 00168 -05261 -05221

Kurtosis 16540 25582 15010 14196 14106 19515 16529 15297 18919 20504

Jarque-Bera 85624 115304 101596 114054 114789 73429 81769 97338 105077 89641

Probability 00138 00031 00062 00033 00032 00254 00168 00077 00052 00113

Sum 9421434 9048058 9043667 8239173 8882388 9359360 8495988 8636512 9372902 9256322

Sum Sq Dev 367539 1009027 809327 1356855 1072816 542746 2351912 1094302 506657 663408

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

29

Panel 2 Exports


Mean 43295 41726 44997 33564 39203 39204 42884 37423 36712 41902

Median 43989 42513 46369 33563 40228 37215 43260 34893 36168 41063

Maximum 49267 47480 48047 50647 51078 48075 48591 52280 49347 48121

Minimum 35181 32658 38487 10999 28248 31282 35764 22685 20866 32299

Std Dev 03567 04627 02889 12951 07307 05704 03974 09473 09485 04404

Skewness -05126 -03390 -11139 -01593 01003 01444 -03788 02615 -01339 -00785

Kurtosis 24040 16695 28948 16237 17569 13333 18292 17687 15771 19101

Jarque-Bera 63277 100352 223840 89813 71350 128756 87513 80535 94336 54568

Probability 00423 00066 00000 00112 00282 00016 00126 00178 00089 00653

Sum 4675847 4506379 4859645 3624899 4233933 4234076 4631435 4041731 3964876 4525383

Sum Sq Dev 136178 229032 89333 1794823 571317 348181 168996 960184 962699 207557

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 42639 41893 42189 40448 42248 44177 39647 39949 43572 42808

Median 42484 42653 42154 38822 43018 44454 41144 39034 43987 42616

Maximum 47407 47004 48937 48585 47489 47584 52432 47544 47638 47884

Minimum 36895 30077 36326 33208 34602 38788 25067 31643 37575 35685

Std Dev 03435 04889 04158 05011 03967 02711 07820 04997 03222 03643

Skewness -00975 -08534 -00141 03327 -03128 -05993 -02009 -00408 -05455 -02672

Kurtosis 15123 25749 15233 15819 16434 21907 19619 15902 19928 19945

Jarque-Bera 101311 139237 98169 110416 100430 94126 55756 89743 99206 58349

Probability 00063 00009 00074 00040 00066 00090 00616 00113 00070 00541

Sum 4605043 4524443 4556463 4368366 4562831 4771111 4281869 4314453 4705765 4623307

Sum Sq Dev 126277 255735 184992 268627 168392 78665 654348 267198 111068 141975

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

30

Panel 3 Imports


Mean 40716 39632 43130 33437 38252 41097 42805 36761 36202 42363

Median 40293 38797 43425 33938 42632 38025 43333 33749 34995 42524

Maximum 48275 47789 47365 51059 47958 48484 48334 50553 48606 48670

Minimum 31854 27002 36458 10124 23431 34572 36232 22924 19763 33482

Std Dev 05623 05535 03511 13000 08121 05130 03861 09070 09426 04291

Skewness -01054 -02950 -05179 -01564 -04266 02822 -03998 01867 -01796 -00986

Kurtosis 16142 23579 19916 16996 17030 13341 17464 15966 16997 18396

Jarque-Bera 88414 34218 94030 80500 108455 139220 99495 94901 81891 62349

Probability 00120 01807 00091 00179 00044 00009 00069 00087 00167 00443

Sum 4397345 4280285 4658019 3611214 4131240 4438484 4622917 3970134 3909800 4575180

Sum Sq Dev 338298 327825 131914 1808338 705702 281581 159501 880160 950711 197015

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 44596 41885 41548 35841 39996 42484 39020 40019 43214 42898

Median 44561 41759 40821 35106 40211 41620 38407 38883 44214 44011

Maximum 48381 47750 49720 46132 49229 48587 49650 47288 48210 47980

Minimum 40342 29293 35068 24090 30390 34645 29905 31802 36600 34622

Std Dev 02461 04854 04568 06666 06219 04457 07157 05136 03670 04301

Skewness -02384 -06748 01142 00167 00316 -02192 02042 00811 -05114 -06862

Kurtosis 19290 25254 14961 15951 14596 18055 14998 14947 18138 20792

Jarque-Bera 61848 92090 104121 88865 106955 72860 108786 103152 110391 122905

Probability 00454 00100 00055 00118 00048 00262 00043 00058 00040 00021

Sum 4816391 4523614 4487204 3870807 4319557 4588249 4214119 4322059 4667138 4633015

Sum Sq Dev 64784 252086 223300 475453 413775 212507 548102 282235 144087 197896

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

31


Panel 1 Total Trade

Panel 2 Exports

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Q1

20

08

Q1

20

09

Q1

20

10

Q1

20

11

Q1

20

12

Q1

20

13

Q1

20

14

Q1

20

15

Q1

20

16

Q1

Log

of

Exp

ort

s






32

Panel 3 Imports


0

1

2

3

4

5

61

99

0Q

1

19

91

Q1

19

92

Q1

19

93

Q1

19

94

Q1

19

95

Q1

19

96

Q1

19

97

Q1

19

98

Q1

19

99

Q1

20

00

Q1

20

01

Q1

20

02

Q1

20

03

Q1

20

04

Q1

20

05

Q1

20

06

Q1

20

07

Q1

20

08

Q1

20

09

Q1

20

10

Q1

20

11

Q1

20

12

Q1

20

13

Q1

20

14

Q1

20

15

Q1

20

16

Q1

Log

of

Imp

ort

s






33



level Critical

value at 5

PP Test stat at

1st Diff

Critical value at 5


Australia -2087649 -3452358 -5511474 -3452764 I(1)

Brazil -151073 -3452358 -4815699 -3452764 I(1)

Canada -1688886 -3452358 -4919794 -3452764 I(1)

China -0761713 -3452358 -4666041 -3452764 I(1)

DRCongo -2701397 -3452358 -4969701 -3452764 I(1)

Egypt -1110372 -3452358 -4587926 -3452764 I(1)

EU -2479035 -3452358 -4796753 -3452764 I(1)

Ghana -1789434 -3452358 -4749838 -3452764 I(1)

India -0176913 -3452358 -5580811 -3452764 I(1)

Indonesia -1940294 -3452358 -7723706 -3452764 I(1)

Japan -27304 -3452358 -4666113 -3452764 I(1)

Malaysia -1798537 -3452358 -5140808 -3452764 I(1)

Morocco -3427262 -3452358 -5251978 -3452764 I(1)

Nigeria -1885798 -3452358 -6573952 -3452764 I(1)

Russia -2427019 -3452358 -4584745 -3452764 I(1)

Safrica -2459347 -3452358 -5061753 -3452764 I(1)

Tanzania -2080362 -3452358 -4639207 -3452764 I(1)

Tunisia -2521464 -3452358 -4922059 -3452764 I(1)

UK -292419 -3452358 -4914527 -3452764 I(1)



34


Panel 1 Trace test



None 08119 20372650 7605409 00000

At most 1 07484 18618330 6950496 00000

At most 2 06943 17169350 6409570 00000

At most 3 06896 15925080 5945066 00000

At most 4 06813 14696730 5486505 00000

At most 5 06751 13496030 5038266 00000

At most 6 06619 12315570 4597583 00000

At most 7 06605 11176950 4172519 00000

At most 8 06570 10042670 3749076 00000

At most 9 06534 8919101 3220692 00000

At most 10 06439 7806611 2731889 00000

At most 11 06424 6722533 2282979 00001

At most 12 06365 5642802 1874701 00000

At most 13 06312 4580251 1505585 00000

At most 14 06183 3532980 1177082 00000

At most 15 05059 2521643 888038 00000

At most 16 04229 1781345 638761 00000

At most 17 03477 1204084 429153 00000

At most 18 03308 755525 258721 00000

At most 19 02723 333740 125180 00000



Max-Eigen Stat


None 08119 1754311 1262691 00000

At most 1 07484 1448984 1042928 00000

At most 2 06943 1244273 895584 00000

At most 3 06896 1228346 884120 00000

At most 4 06813 1200704 864224 00000

At most 5 06751 1180455 849650 00000

At most 6 06619 1138626 819543 00000

At most 7 06605 1134280 816415 00000

At most 8 06570 1123565 808703 00000

At most 9 06534 1112489 748375 00000

At most 10 06439 1084078 688121 00000

At most 11 06424 1079731 627522 00000

35

At most 12 06365 1062552 567052 00000

At most 13 06312 1047271 505999 00000

At most 14 06183 1011337 444972 00000

At most 15 05059 740298 383310 00000

At most 16 04229 577261 321183 00000

At most 17 03477 448558 258232 00001

At most 18 03308 421785 193870 00000

At most 19 02723 333740 125180 00000

Source Authors

36






0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Pe

rce

nta

ge (

5)

Horizon

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Pe

rce

nta

ge (

)

Horizon

37





USA 75340 31220 52535 24920 32451 80425 16142 58582

Brazil 70609 08813 89311 04341 118017 31421 34896 70440

Russia 77612 125327 110425 34878 37666 32531 20684 95616

India 37554 88615 28643 68745 14462 45156 27108 20011

China 72605 55905 65828 98491 44992 74646 19369 79720

South Africa 97203 36750 72784 35206 31078 59433 25869 68574

Australia 11614 44655 02851 08205 109096 02585 32873 15055

Canada 73007 73293 50845 17185 57174 54735 08255 60655

EU 84055 25762 66141 26268 48995 68512 12978 68320

Indonesia 19769 24314 01169 80320 18449 16285 14550 05139

Japan 85308 40028 55534 22141 62552 85835 16891 70244

Malaysia 56649 70935 37736 31557 26228 67378 19406 37956

UK 53469 16542 64573 110048 19054 107249 55380 45530

DR Congo 29744 215520 39112 71369 09432 26191 07574 32377

Egypt 43495 37493 140244 17884 31158 27479 80075 60913

Ghana 03332 39604 21476 261490 10461 04486 12166 24795

Morocco 26742 12945 28298 04647 232156 27901 47621 48632

Nigeria 30411 05806 22706 64205 14887 130388 42022 25243

Tanzania 03455 10693 03545 11170 24621 31812 501363 06036

Tunisia 48028 35778 46245 06928 57070 25551 04778 106163



Total from BRICS 258380 315410 366990 241662 246216 243188 127926 334361

Total from Asia 349497 405125 299335 336134 204349 321832 118008 308685



38




USA 84417 27346 64937 08671 58633 45316 50364 08786

Brazil 62986 17990 52082 67154 42216 23105 79339 53891

Russia 80149 22871 85737 59520 44582 03436 72180 08594

India 24108 88781 32734 41954 80329 59152 35292 31134

China 57369 67788 51214 97239 36961 03302 48212 15927

South Africa 96491 23300 70515 22174 37526 16513 58827 15241

Australia 29237 67747 29516 62979 69457 03181 43946 24635

Canada 68897 31125 55227 47717 82931 07959 61205 05466

EU 71382 41920 40932 09740 82114 44444 71835 16233

Indonesia 45443 03361 37592 03145 24308 04855 20374 05870

Japan 67811 27701 61483 42867 46307 37472 64150 53856

Malaysia 57080 08193 56191 27331 61632 42365 26281 25684

UK 79705 08899 57763 09308 18636 75911 39259 30355

DR Congo 09940 314128 04962 51581 29301 07936 32248 94814

Egypt 33338 15688 113752 57598 34201 18514 40609 16733

Ghana 14299 25910 45405 243033 14637 60390 36649 10144

Morocco 29828 91510 32439 50298 136523 28312 64231 34121

Nigeria 16423 06604 31183 17516 07315 390801 09295 68504

Tunisia 40701 34480 50979 63742 67218 35759 117458 38775

Tanzania 30396 74657 25357 16435 25175 91275 28247 441238



Total from BRICS 224613 220729 292282 288040 241613 105508 293849 124787

Total from Asia 331961 218695 324952 272055 294119 150583 266489 141065



39




USA 09188 00959 09065 00856

Brazil 08344 01108 08742 00260

Russia 08388 02094 08924 00929

India 09000 -01139 08413 -00254

China 09102 01438 08912 00402

South Africa 09028 00416 09035 00097

Australia 07105 -02842 08673 -00439

Canada 08991 00946 08986 01122

EU 09121 01077 08971 00713

Indonesia 07591 -03108 08369 -02587

Japan 08998 01361 08803 00883

Malaysia 09000 00528 08364 00472

UK 08870 00649 08808 -00493

DR Congo 07845 -00328 06859 -00974

Egypt 08598 -00230 08862 -01441

Ghana 07385 -03746 07570 -01304

Morocco 07678 -00723 08635 01011

Nigeria 08696 -01538 06092 -02776

Tanzania 04986 -03598 05588 -00770


40




USA 918838 1116203 197365 906516 1080837 174321

Brazil 834405 1048823 214418 874223 922305 48081

Russia 838838 1301518 462681 892421 1076102 183681

India 900031 715701 -184330 841338 842608 01270

China 910213 1216863 306650 891159 966746 75587

South Africa 902797 982282 79485 903509 923706 20197

Australia 710525 395694 -314831 867260 798447 -68813

Canada 899143 1089583 190440 898639 1131561 232923

EU 912144 1134632 222487 897115 1036992 139877

Indonesia 759059 405570 -353488 836906 492962 -343944

Japan 899771 1184811 285039 880287 1054533 174246

Malaysia 899995 1001143 101148 836384 922360 85975

UK 887018 1011048 124029 880782 799256 -81526

DR Congo 784480 738784 -45696 685872 576096 -109776

Egypt 859756 838059 -21696 886248 665117 -221131

Ghana 738510 364252 -374258 756967 607614 -149354

Morocco 767844 666083 -101761 863477 1066309 202831

Nigeria 869612 638121 -231491 609199 351031 -258168

Tanzania 498637 239716 -258921 558762 535112 -23650


14





119917119947 = 119941119947119946119925119946=120783119946ne119947 (6)



by 119931119947) as

119931119947 = 119941119946119947119925119946=120783119946ne119947 (7)






119925119947 = 119931119947 minus 119917119947 (8)












119931119931119923119920 = 120783

119925 119917119947

119925119947=120783 =

120783

119925 119931119947

119925119947=120783 (9)

15










defined as

119926119947119919 =

119917119947

119919119947+ 119917119947 forall 119947 = 120783 120784 hellip 119925 (10)






119920119947119919 =

119925119947

119931119947+119917119947 forall 119947 = 120783 120784 hellip 119925 (11)






119919) in the





point (11)


16

















global economy















17
























0

20

40

60

80

100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Pe

rce

nta

ge (

)

Horizon

18








USA 71778 29440 61788 42154 74728 43927 18340 60843

Brazil 58032 19932 55790 44390 33250 42150 14919 67961

Russia 66697 31216 64970 49067 35979 32582 25549 72983

India 55713 60962 72008 64639 46561 32564 08157 46453

China 68649 57823 73921 90160 55913 54103 16375 75379

South Africa 80744 44883 80196 65987 54168 42197 06952 75993

Australia 27148 31751 25479 38758 25946 44026 26291 34948

Canada 65383 41541 57408 37902 73538 47009 14725 55939

EU 68368 15015 57468 38353 75445 42242 12341 63107

Indonesia 23779 16606 16213 15499 09009 26810 06512 23182

Japan 68181 31048 55894 40754 77014 55484 24794 61861

Malaysia 45584 42499 33993 16137 42698 30786 55850 29298

UK 80756 15008 76576 76385 96626 78466 69155 62834

DR Congo 18171 287238 16923 29821 07776 15582 103410 20364

Egypt 60237 30150 89778 75198 46710 27362 35750 64429

Ghana 33558 41383 52468 121599 42637 46661 27242 37347

Morocco 43059 10130 40407 33048 93997 68184 52822 45226

Nigeria 13664 95792 11543 67823 28771 186518 05394 16720

Tanzania 05952 80171 03841 15953 29832 65904 451662 08304

Tunisia 44544 17412 53335 36375 49400 17444 23759 76830



Total from BRICS 249093 214816 346886 314243 225871 203596 71952 338770

Total from Asia 328605 240154 317000 276255 267174 232328 137238 309157









Brazil and USA

19





























20
















equation (8)















21







7)



USA 09225 01146

Brazil 09120 -00219

Russia 09112 00455

India 09078 -00084

China 09089 01571



Canada 09162 00942

EU 09242 00508


Japan 09058 00983

Malaysia 08912 -00356

UK 08952 01750

DR Congo 07128 -01741

Egypt 09102 00250

Ghana 08784 -00938

Morocco 09060 -00343

Nigeria 08135 -01450

Tanzania 05483 -02800







22











USA 922486 1167212 244726

Brazil 911992 874640 -37352

Russia 911225 1000613 89388

India 907825 898242 -09583

China 908903 1248026 339122

South Africa 919256 1136053 216797

Australia 920363 648580 -271782

Canada 916215 1112171 195956

EU 924230 1029565 105335

Indonesia 870173 369507 -500665

Japan 905765 1109993 204227

Malaysia 891174 833400 -57774

UK 895223 1279940 384716

DR Congo 712762 501596 -211166

Egypt 910222 960466 50244

Ghana 878401 774361 -104040

Morocco 906003 846578 -59425

Nigeria 813482 682922 -130560

Tanzania 548338 329206 -219132




4


23

















transmitters















24









25

References











ndash 505 DOI 1023072109358






South Africa













Bank EuroSystem



httpsdoiorg101111j1468-0297200802208x

26






9780199338306





9780199683666





1023072938189


















27





101257000282803321946804











43 doi 101111apel12218






1765(97)00214-0











102(30) 10421 ndash 10426 doi 101073pnas0500298102

28


Panel 1 Total trade


Mean 84011 81358 88127 67001 77455 80301 85688 74184 72914 84264

Median 84236 79800 90033 67500 83329 75169 86593 68642 71163 83149

Maximum 97207 94582 95355 101668 98959 96559 96925 102321 97017 96790

Minimum 68070 59661 74991 21419 52033 66311 71997 45609 41361 65780

Std Dev 09103 09923 06307 25939 15215 10771 07832 18510 18889 08659

Skewness -02557 -03265 -08339 -01564 -02113 01983 -03892 02254 -01552 -00788

Kurtosis 18436 20982 24076 16568 16486 13023 17853 16793 16301 18843

Jarque-Bera 71942 55790 140960 85592 90220 136781 93660 87637 88786 57136

Probability 00274 00615 00009 00138 00110 00011 00093 00125 00118 00575

Sum 9073191 8786664 9517664 7236112 8365173 8672560 9254352 8011865 7874676 9100564

Sum Sq Dev 886614 1053555 425632 7199027 2477109 1241421 656302 3666218 3817577 802300

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 87236 83778 83738 76289 82244 86661 78667 79968 86786 85707

Median 87044 84389 82930 73778 83385 86057 79551 77917 88201 86262

Maximum 95578 94754 98656 93881 95886 96149 101364 94617 95788 95813

Minimum 77730 59370 71394 59040 66530 73517 55142 63446 74210 70590

Std Dev 05861 09711 08697 11261 10013 07122 14826 10113 06881 07874

Skewness -01509 -07693 00520 00961 -00788 -03648 00245 00168 -05261 -05221

Kurtosis 16540 25582 15010 14196 14106 19515 16529 15297 18919 20504

Jarque-Bera 85624 115304 101596 114054 114789 73429 81769 97338 105077 89641

Probability 00138 00031 00062 00033 00032 00254 00168 00077 00052 00113

Sum 9421434 9048058 9043667 8239173 8882388 9359360 8495988 8636512 9372902 9256322

Sum Sq Dev 367539 1009027 809327 1356855 1072816 542746 2351912 1094302 506657 663408

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

29

Panel 2 Exports


Mean 43295 41726 44997 33564 39203 39204 42884 37423 36712 41902

Median 43989 42513 46369 33563 40228 37215 43260 34893 36168 41063

Maximum 49267 47480 48047 50647 51078 48075 48591 52280 49347 48121

Minimum 35181 32658 38487 10999 28248 31282 35764 22685 20866 32299

Std Dev 03567 04627 02889 12951 07307 05704 03974 09473 09485 04404

Skewness -05126 -03390 -11139 -01593 01003 01444 -03788 02615 -01339 -00785

Kurtosis 24040 16695 28948 16237 17569 13333 18292 17687 15771 19101

Jarque-Bera 63277 100352 223840 89813 71350 128756 87513 80535 94336 54568

Probability 00423 00066 00000 00112 00282 00016 00126 00178 00089 00653

Sum 4675847 4506379 4859645 3624899 4233933 4234076 4631435 4041731 3964876 4525383

Sum Sq Dev 136178 229032 89333 1794823 571317 348181 168996 960184 962699 207557

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 42639 41893 42189 40448 42248 44177 39647 39949 43572 42808

Median 42484 42653 42154 38822 43018 44454 41144 39034 43987 42616

Maximum 47407 47004 48937 48585 47489 47584 52432 47544 47638 47884

Minimum 36895 30077 36326 33208 34602 38788 25067 31643 37575 35685

Std Dev 03435 04889 04158 05011 03967 02711 07820 04997 03222 03643

Skewness -00975 -08534 -00141 03327 -03128 -05993 -02009 -00408 -05455 -02672

Kurtosis 15123 25749 15233 15819 16434 21907 19619 15902 19928 19945

Jarque-Bera 101311 139237 98169 110416 100430 94126 55756 89743 99206 58349

Probability 00063 00009 00074 00040 00066 00090 00616 00113 00070 00541

Sum 4605043 4524443 4556463 4368366 4562831 4771111 4281869 4314453 4705765 4623307

Sum Sq Dev 126277 255735 184992 268627 168392 78665 654348 267198 111068 141975

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

30

Panel 3 Imports


Mean 40716 39632 43130 33437 38252 41097 42805 36761 36202 42363

Median 40293 38797 43425 33938 42632 38025 43333 33749 34995 42524

Maximum 48275 47789 47365 51059 47958 48484 48334 50553 48606 48670

Minimum 31854 27002 36458 10124 23431 34572 36232 22924 19763 33482

Std Dev 05623 05535 03511 13000 08121 05130 03861 09070 09426 04291

Skewness -01054 -02950 -05179 -01564 -04266 02822 -03998 01867 -01796 -00986

Kurtosis 16142 23579 19916 16996 17030 13341 17464 15966 16997 18396

Jarque-Bera 88414 34218 94030 80500 108455 139220 99495 94901 81891 62349

Probability 00120 01807 00091 00179 00044 00009 00069 00087 00167 00443

Sum 4397345 4280285 4658019 3611214 4131240 4438484 4622917 3970134 3909800 4575180

Sum Sq Dev 338298 327825 131914 1808338 705702 281581 159501 880160 950711 197015

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 44596 41885 41548 35841 39996 42484 39020 40019 43214 42898

Median 44561 41759 40821 35106 40211 41620 38407 38883 44214 44011

Maximum 48381 47750 49720 46132 49229 48587 49650 47288 48210 47980

Minimum 40342 29293 35068 24090 30390 34645 29905 31802 36600 34622

Std Dev 02461 04854 04568 06666 06219 04457 07157 05136 03670 04301

Skewness -02384 -06748 01142 00167 00316 -02192 02042 00811 -05114 -06862

Kurtosis 19290 25254 14961 15951 14596 18055 14998 14947 18138 20792

Jarque-Bera 61848 92090 104121 88865 106955 72860 108786 103152 110391 122905

Probability 00454 00100 00055 00118 00048 00262 00043 00058 00040 00021

Sum 4816391 4523614 4487204 3870807 4319557 4588249 4214119 4322059 4667138 4633015

Sum Sq Dev 64784 252086 223300 475453 413775 212507 548102 282235 144087 197896

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

31


Panel 1 Total Trade

Panel 2 Exports

0

2

4

6

8

10

121

99

0Q

1

19

91

Q1

19

92

Q1

19

93

Q1

19

94

Q1

19

95

Q1

19

96

Q1

19

97

Q1

19

98

Q1

19

99

Q1

20

00

Q1

20

01

Q1

20

02

Q1

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03

Q1

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Q1

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05

Q1

20

06

Q1

20

07

Q1

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08

Q1

20

09

Q1

20

10

Q1

20

11

Q1

20

12

Q1

20

13

Q1

20

14

Q1

20

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Q1

20

16

Q1

Log

of

Tota

l Tra

de






0

1

2

3

4

5

6

19

90

Q1

19

91

Q1

19

92

Q1

19

93

Q1

19

94

Q1

19

95

Q1

19

96

Q1

19

97

Q1

19

98

Q1

19

99

Q1

20

00

Q1

20

01

Q1

20

02

Q1

20

03

Q1

20

04

Q1

20

05

Q1

20

06

Q1

20

07

Q1

20

08

Q1

20

09

Q1

20

10

Q1

20

11

Q1

20

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Q1

20

13

Q1

20

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Q1

20

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Q1

20

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Q1

Log

of

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ort

s






32

Panel 3 Imports


0

1

2

3

4

5

61

99

0Q

1

19

91

Q1

19

92

Q1

19

93

Q1

19

94

Q1

19

95

Q1

19

96

Q1

19

97

Q1

19

98

Q1

19

99

Q1

20

00

Q1

20

01

Q1

20

02

Q1

20

03

Q1

20

04

Q1

20

05

Q1

20

06

Q1

20

07

Q1

20

08

Q1

20

09

Q1

20

10

Q1

20

11

Q1

20

12

Q1

20

13

Q1

20

14

Q1

20

15

Q1

20

16

Q1

Log

of

Imp

ort

s






33



level Critical

value at 5

PP Test stat at

1st Diff

Critical value at 5


Australia -2087649 -3452358 -5511474 -3452764 I(1)

Brazil -151073 -3452358 -4815699 -3452764 I(1)

Canada -1688886 -3452358 -4919794 -3452764 I(1)

China -0761713 -3452358 -4666041 -3452764 I(1)

DRCongo -2701397 -3452358 -4969701 -3452764 I(1)

Egypt -1110372 -3452358 -4587926 -3452764 I(1)

EU -2479035 -3452358 -4796753 -3452764 I(1)

Ghana -1789434 -3452358 -4749838 -3452764 I(1)

India -0176913 -3452358 -5580811 -3452764 I(1)

Indonesia -1940294 -3452358 -7723706 -3452764 I(1)

Japan -27304 -3452358 -4666113 -3452764 I(1)

Malaysia -1798537 -3452358 -5140808 -3452764 I(1)

Morocco -3427262 -3452358 -5251978 -3452764 I(1)

Nigeria -1885798 -3452358 -6573952 -3452764 I(1)

Russia -2427019 -3452358 -4584745 -3452764 I(1)

Safrica -2459347 -3452358 -5061753 -3452764 I(1)

Tanzania -2080362 -3452358 -4639207 -3452764 I(1)

Tunisia -2521464 -3452358 -4922059 -3452764 I(1)

UK -292419 -3452358 -4914527 -3452764 I(1)



34


Panel 1 Trace test



None 08119 20372650 7605409 00000

At most 1 07484 18618330 6950496 00000

At most 2 06943 17169350 6409570 00000

At most 3 06896 15925080 5945066 00000

At most 4 06813 14696730 5486505 00000

At most 5 06751 13496030 5038266 00000

At most 6 06619 12315570 4597583 00000

At most 7 06605 11176950 4172519 00000

At most 8 06570 10042670 3749076 00000

At most 9 06534 8919101 3220692 00000

At most 10 06439 7806611 2731889 00000

At most 11 06424 6722533 2282979 00001

At most 12 06365 5642802 1874701 00000

At most 13 06312 4580251 1505585 00000

At most 14 06183 3532980 1177082 00000

At most 15 05059 2521643 888038 00000

At most 16 04229 1781345 638761 00000

At most 17 03477 1204084 429153 00000

At most 18 03308 755525 258721 00000

At most 19 02723 333740 125180 00000



Max-Eigen Stat


None 08119 1754311 1262691 00000

At most 1 07484 1448984 1042928 00000

At most 2 06943 1244273 895584 00000

At most 3 06896 1228346 884120 00000

At most 4 06813 1200704 864224 00000

At most 5 06751 1180455 849650 00000

At most 6 06619 1138626 819543 00000

At most 7 06605 1134280 816415 00000

At most 8 06570 1123565 808703 00000

At most 9 06534 1112489 748375 00000

At most 10 06439 1084078 688121 00000

At most 11 06424 1079731 627522 00000

35

At most 12 06365 1062552 567052 00000

At most 13 06312 1047271 505999 00000

At most 14 06183 1011337 444972 00000

At most 15 05059 740298 383310 00000

At most 16 04229 577261 321183 00000

At most 17 03477 448558 258232 00001

At most 18 03308 421785 193870 00000

At most 19 02723 333740 125180 00000

Source Authors

36






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USA 75340 31220 52535 24920 32451 80425 16142 58582

Brazil 70609 08813 89311 04341 118017 31421 34896 70440

Russia 77612 125327 110425 34878 37666 32531 20684 95616

India 37554 88615 28643 68745 14462 45156 27108 20011

China 72605 55905 65828 98491 44992 74646 19369 79720

South Africa 97203 36750 72784 35206 31078 59433 25869 68574

Australia 11614 44655 02851 08205 109096 02585 32873 15055

Canada 73007 73293 50845 17185 57174 54735 08255 60655

EU 84055 25762 66141 26268 48995 68512 12978 68320

Indonesia 19769 24314 01169 80320 18449 16285 14550 05139

Japan 85308 40028 55534 22141 62552 85835 16891 70244

Malaysia 56649 70935 37736 31557 26228 67378 19406 37956

UK 53469 16542 64573 110048 19054 107249 55380 45530

DR Congo 29744 215520 39112 71369 09432 26191 07574 32377

Egypt 43495 37493 140244 17884 31158 27479 80075 60913

Ghana 03332 39604 21476 261490 10461 04486 12166 24795

Morocco 26742 12945 28298 04647 232156 27901 47621 48632

Nigeria 30411 05806 22706 64205 14887 130388 42022 25243

Tanzania 03455 10693 03545 11170 24621 31812 501363 06036

Tunisia 48028 35778 46245 06928 57070 25551 04778 106163



Total from BRICS 258380 315410 366990 241662 246216 243188 127926 334361

Total from Asia 349497 405125 299335 336134 204349 321832 118008 308685



38




USA 84417 27346 64937 08671 58633 45316 50364 08786

Brazil 62986 17990 52082 67154 42216 23105 79339 53891

Russia 80149 22871 85737 59520 44582 03436 72180 08594

India 24108 88781 32734 41954 80329 59152 35292 31134

China 57369 67788 51214 97239 36961 03302 48212 15927

South Africa 96491 23300 70515 22174 37526 16513 58827 15241

Australia 29237 67747 29516 62979 69457 03181 43946 24635

Canada 68897 31125 55227 47717 82931 07959 61205 05466

EU 71382 41920 40932 09740 82114 44444 71835 16233

Indonesia 45443 03361 37592 03145 24308 04855 20374 05870

Japan 67811 27701 61483 42867 46307 37472 64150 53856

Malaysia 57080 08193 56191 27331 61632 42365 26281 25684

UK 79705 08899 57763 09308 18636 75911 39259 30355

DR Congo 09940 314128 04962 51581 29301 07936 32248 94814

Egypt 33338 15688 113752 57598 34201 18514 40609 16733

Ghana 14299 25910 45405 243033 14637 60390 36649 10144

Morocco 29828 91510 32439 50298 136523 28312 64231 34121

Nigeria 16423 06604 31183 17516 07315 390801 09295 68504

Tunisia 40701 34480 50979 63742 67218 35759 117458 38775

Tanzania 30396 74657 25357 16435 25175 91275 28247 441238



Total from BRICS 224613 220729 292282 288040 241613 105508 293849 124787

Total from Asia 331961 218695 324952 272055 294119 150583 266489 141065



39




USA 09188 00959 09065 00856

Brazil 08344 01108 08742 00260

Russia 08388 02094 08924 00929

India 09000 -01139 08413 -00254

China 09102 01438 08912 00402

South Africa 09028 00416 09035 00097

Australia 07105 -02842 08673 -00439

Canada 08991 00946 08986 01122

EU 09121 01077 08971 00713

Indonesia 07591 -03108 08369 -02587

Japan 08998 01361 08803 00883

Malaysia 09000 00528 08364 00472

UK 08870 00649 08808 -00493

DR Congo 07845 -00328 06859 -00974

Egypt 08598 -00230 08862 -01441

Ghana 07385 -03746 07570 -01304

Morocco 07678 -00723 08635 01011

Nigeria 08696 -01538 06092 -02776

Tanzania 04986 -03598 05588 -00770


40




USA 918838 1116203 197365 906516 1080837 174321

Brazil 834405 1048823 214418 874223 922305 48081

Russia 838838 1301518 462681 892421 1076102 183681

India 900031 715701 -184330 841338 842608 01270

China 910213 1216863 306650 891159 966746 75587

South Africa 902797 982282 79485 903509 923706 20197

Australia 710525 395694 -314831 867260 798447 -68813

Canada 899143 1089583 190440 898639 1131561 232923

EU 912144 1134632 222487 897115 1036992 139877

Indonesia 759059 405570 -353488 836906 492962 -343944

Japan 899771 1184811 285039 880287 1054533 174246

Malaysia 899995 1001143 101148 836384 922360 85975

UK 887018 1011048 124029 880782 799256 -81526

DR Congo 784480 738784 -45696 685872 576096 -109776

Egypt 859756 838059 -21696 886248 665117 -221131

Ghana 738510 364252 -374258 756967 607614 -149354

Morocco 767844 666083 -101761 863477 1066309 202831

Nigeria 869612 638121 -231491 609199 351031 -258168

Tanzania 498637 239716 -258921 558762 535112 -23650


15










defined as

119926119947119919 =

119917119947

119919119947+ 119917119947 forall 119947 = 120783 120784 hellip 119925 (10)






119920119947119919 =

119925119947

119931119947+119917119947 forall 119947 = 120783 120784 hellip 119925 (11)






119919) in the





point (11)


16

















global economy















17
























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USA 71778 29440 61788 42154 74728 43927 18340 60843

Brazil 58032 19932 55790 44390 33250 42150 14919 67961

Russia 66697 31216 64970 49067 35979 32582 25549 72983

India 55713 60962 72008 64639 46561 32564 08157 46453

China 68649 57823 73921 90160 55913 54103 16375 75379

South Africa 80744 44883 80196 65987 54168 42197 06952 75993

Australia 27148 31751 25479 38758 25946 44026 26291 34948

Canada 65383 41541 57408 37902 73538 47009 14725 55939

EU 68368 15015 57468 38353 75445 42242 12341 63107

Indonesia 23779 16606 16213 15499 09009 26810 06512 23182

Japan 68181 31048 55894 40754 77014 55484 24794 61861

Malaysia 45584 42499 33993 16137 42698 30786 55850 29298

UK 80756 15008 76576 76385 96626 78466 69155 62834

DR Congo 18171 287238 16923 29821 07776 15582 103410 20364

Egypt 60237 30150 89778 75198 46710 27362 35750 64429

Ghana 33558 41383 52468 121599 42637 46661 27242 37347

Morocco 43059 10130 40407 33048 93997 68184 52822 45226

Nigeria 13664 95792 11543 67823 28771 186518 05394 16720

Tanzania 05952 80171 03841 15953 29832 65904 451662 08304

Tunisia 44544 17412 53335 36375 49400 17444 23759 76830



Total from BRICS 249093 214816 346886 314243 225871 203596 71952 338770

Total from Asia 328605 240154 317000 276255 267174 232328 137238 309157









Brazil and USA

19





























20
















equation (8)















21







7)



USA 09225 01146

Brazil 09120 -00219

Russia 09112 00455

India 09078 -00084

China 09089 01571



Canada 09162 00942

EU 09242 00508


Japan 09058 00983

Malaysia 08912 -00356

UK 08952 01750

DR Congo 07128 -01741

Egypt 09102 00250

Ghana 08784 -00938

Morocco 09060 -00343

Nigeria 08135 -01450

Tanzania 05483 -02800







22











USA 922486 1167212 244726

Brazil 911992 874640 -37352

Russia 911225 1000613 89388

India 907825 898242 -09583

China 908903 1248026 339122

South Africa 919256 1136053 216797

Australia 920363 648580 -271782

Canada 916215 1112171 195956

EU 924230 1029565 105335

Indonesia 870173 369507 -500665

Japan 905765 1109993 204227

Malaysia 891174 833400 -57774

UK 895223 1279940 384716

DR Congo 712762 501596 -211166

Egypt 910222 960466 50244

Ghana 878401 774361 -104040

Morocco 906003 846578 -59425

Nigeria 813482 682922 -130560

Tanzania 548338 329206 -219132




4


23

















transmitters















24









25

References











ndash 505 DOI 1023072109358






South Africa













Bank EuroSystem



httpsdoiorg101111j1468-0297200802208x

26






9780199338306





9780199683666





1023072938189


















27





101257000282803321946804











43 doi 101111apel12218






1765(97)00214-0











102(30) 10421 ndash 10426 doi 101073pnas0500298102

28


Panel 1 Total trade


Mean 84011 81358 88127 67001 77455 80301 85688 74184 72914 84264

Median 84236 79800 90033 67500 83329 75169 86593 68642 71163 83149

Maximum 97207 94582 95355 101668 98959 96559 96925 102321 97017 96790

Minimum 68070 59661 74991 21419 52033 66311 71997 45609 41361 65780

Std Dev 09103 09923 06307 25939 15215 10771 07832 18510 18889 08659

Skewness -02557 -03265 -08339 -01564 -02113 01983 -03892 02254 -01552 -00788

Kurtosis 18436 20982 24076 16568 16486 13023 17853 16793 16301 18843

Jarque-Bera 71942 55790 140960 85592 90220 136781 93660 87637 88786 57136

Probability 00274 00615 00009 00138 00110 00011 00093 00125 00118 00575

Sum 9073191 8786664 9517664 7236112 8365173 8672560 9254352 8011865 7874676 9100564

Sum Sq Dev 886614 1053555 425632 7199027 2477109 1241421 656302 3666218 3817577 802300

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 87236 83778 83738 76289 82244 86661 78667 79968 86786 85707

Median 87044 84389 82930 73778 83385 86057 79551 77917 88201 86262

Maximum 95578 94754 98656 93881 95886 96149 101364 94617 95788 95813

Minimum 77730 59370 71394 59040 66530 73517 55142 63446 74210 70590

Std Dev 05861 09711 08697 11261 10013 07122 14826 10113 06881 07874

Skewness -01509 -07693 00520 00961 -00788 -03648 00245 00168 -05261 -05221

Kurtosis 16540 25582 15010 14196 14106 19515 16529 15297 18919 20504

Jarque-Bera 85624 115304 101596 114054 114789 73429 81769 97338 105077 89641

Probability 00138 00031 00062 00033 00032 00254 00168 00077 00052 00113

Sum 9421434 9048058 9043667 8239173 8882388 9359360 8495988 8636512 9372902 9256322

Sum Sq Dev 367539 1009027 809327 1356855 1072816 542746 2351912 1094302 506657 663408

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

29

Panel 2 Exports


Mean 43295 41726 44997 33564 39203 39204 42884 37423 36712 41902

Median 43989 42513 46369 33563 40228 37215 43260 34893 36168 41063

Maximum 49267 47480 48047 50647 51078 48075 48591 52280 49347 48121

Minimum 35181 32658 38487 10999 28248 31282 35764 22685 20866 32299

Std Dev 03567 04627 02889 12951 07307 05704 03974 09473 09485 04404

Skewness -05126 -03390 -11139 -01593 01003 01444 -03788 02615 -01339 -00785

Kurtosis 24040 16695 28948 16237 17569 13333 18292 17687 15771 19101

Jarque-Bera 63277 100352 223840 89813 71350 128756 87513 80535 94336 54568

Probability 00423 00066 00000 00112 00282 00016 00126 00178 00089 00653

Sum 4675847 4506379 4859645 3624899 4233933 4234076 4631435 4041731 3964876 4525383

Sum Sq Dev 136178 229032 89333 1794823 571317 348181 168996 960184 962699 207557

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 42639 41893 42189 40448 42248 44177 39647 39949 43572 42808

Median 42484 42653 42154 38822 43018 44454 41144 39034 43987 42616

Maximum 47407 47004 48937 48585 47489 47584 52432 47544 47638 47884

Minimum 36895 30077 36326 33208 34602 38788 25067 31643 37575 35685

Std Dev 03435 04889 04158 05011 03967 02711 07820 04997 03222 03643

Skewness -00975 -08534 -00141 03327 -03128 -05993 -02009 -00408 -05455 -02672

Kurtosis 15123 25749 15233 15819 16434 21907 19619 15902 19928 19945

Jarque-Bera 101311 139237 98169 110416 100430 94126 55756 89743 99206 58349

Probability 00063 00009 00074 00040 00066 00090 00616 00113 00070 00541

Sum 4605043 4524443 4556463 4368366 4562831 4771111 4281869 4314453 4705765 4623307

Sum Sq Dev 126277 255735 184992 268627 168392 78665 654348 267198 111068 141975

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

30

Panel 3 Imports


Mean 40716 39632 43130 33437 38252 41097 42805 36761 36202 42363

Median 40293 38797 43425 33938 42632 38025 43333 33749 34995 42524

Maximum 48275 47789 47365 51059 47958 48484 48334 50553 48606 48670

Minimum 31854 27002 36458 10124 23431 34572 36232 22924 19763 33482

Std Dev 05623 05535 03511 13000 08121 05130 03861 09070 09426 04291

Skewness -01054 -02950 -05179 -01564 -04266 02822 -03998 01867 -01796 -00986

Kurtosis 16142 23579 19916 16996 17030 13341 17464 15966 16997 18396

Jarque-Bera 88414 34218 94030 80500 108455 139220 99495 94901 81891 62349

Probability 00120 01807 00091 00179 00044 00009 00069 00087 00167 00443

Sum 4397345 4280285 4658019 3611214 4131240 4438484 4622917 3970134 3909800 4575180

Sum Sq Dev 338298 327825 131914 1808338 705702 281581 159501 880160 950711 197015

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 44596 41885 41548 35841 39996 42484 39020 40019 43214 42898

Median 44561 41759 40821 35106 40211 41620 38407 38883 44214 44011

Maximum 48381 47750 49720 46132 49229 48587 49650 47288 48210 47980

Minimum 40342 29293 35068 24090 30390 34645 29905 31802 36600 34622

Std Dev 02461 04854 04568 06666 06219 04457 07157 05136 03670 04301

Skewness -02384 -06748 01142 00167 00316 -02192 02042 00811 -05114 -06862

Kurtosis 19290 25254 14961 15951 14596 18055 14998 14947 18138 20792

Jarque-Bera 61848 92090 104121 88865 106955 72860 108786 103152 110391 122905

Probability 00454 00100 00055 00118 00048 00262 00043 00058 00040 00021

Sum 4816391 4523614 4487204 3870807 4319557 4588249 4214119 4322059 4667138 4633015

Sum Sq Dev 64784 252086 223300 475453 413775 212507 548102 282235 144087 197896

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

31


Panel 1 Total Trade

Panel 2 Exports

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Panel 3 Imports


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33



level Critical

value at 5

PP Test stat at

1st Diff

Critical value at 5


Australia -2087649 -3452358 -5511474 -3452764 I(1)

Brazil -151073 -3452358 -4815699 -3452764 I(1)

Canada -1688886 -3452358 -4919794 -3452764 I(1)

China -0761713 -3452358 -4666041 -3452764 I(1)

DRCongo -2701397 -3452358 -4969701 -3452764 I(1)

Egypt -1110372 -3452358 -4587926 -3452764 I(1)

EU -2479035 -3452358 -4796753 -3452764 I(1)

Ghana -1789434 -3452358 -4749838 -3452764 I(1)

India -0176913 -3452358 -5580811 -3452764 I(1)

Indonesia -1940294 -3452358 -7723706 -3452764 I(1)

Japan -27304 -3452358 -4666113 -3452764 I(1)

Malaysia -1798537 -3452358 -5140808 -3452764 I(1)

Morocco -3427262 -3452358 -5251978 -3452764 I(1)

Nigeria -1885798 -3452358 -6573952 -3452764 I(1)

Russia -2427019 -3452358 -4584745 -3452764 I(1)

Safrica -2459347 -3452358 -5061753 -3452764 I(1)

Tanzania -2080362 -3452358 -4639207 -3452764 I(1)

Tunisia -2521464 -3452358 -4922059 -3452764 I(1)

UK -292419 -3452358 -4914527 -3452764 I(1)



34


Panel 1 Trace test



None 08119 20372650 7605409 00000

At most 1 07484 18618330 6950496 00000

At most 2 06943 17169350 6409570 00000

At most 3 06896 15925080 5945066 00000

At most 4 06813 14696730 5486505 00000

At most 5 06751 13496030 5038266 00000

At most 6 06619 12315570 4597583 00000

At most 7 06605 11176950 4172519 00000

At most 8 06570 10042670 3749076 00000

At most 9 06534 8919101 3220692 00000

At most 10 06439 7806611 2731889 00000

At most 11 06424 6722533 2282979 00001

At most 12 06365 5642802 1874701 00000

At most 13 06312 4580251 1505585 00000

At most 14 06183 3532980 1177082 00000

At most 15 05059 2521643 888038 00000

At most 16 04229 1781345 638761 00000

At most 17 03477 1204084 429153 00000

At most 18 03308 755525 258721 00000

At most 19 02723 333740 125180 00000



Max-Eigen Stat


None 08119 1754311 1262691 00000

At most 1 07484 1448984 1042928 00000

At most 2 06943 1244273 895584 00000

At most 3 06896 1228346 884120 00000

At most 4 06813 1200704 864224 00000

At most 5 06751 1180455 849650 00000

At most 6 06619 1138626 819543 00000

At most 7 06605 1134280 816415 00000

At most 8 06570 1123565 808703 00000

At most 9 06534 1112489 748375 00000

At most 10 06439 1084078 688121 00000

At most 11 06424 1079731 627522 00000

35

At most 12 06365 1062552 567052 00000

At most 13 06312 1047271 505999 00000

At most 14 06183 1011337 444972 00000

At most 15 05059 740298 383310 00000

At most 16 04229 577261 321183 00000

At most 17 03477 448558 258232 00001

At most 18 03308 421785 193870 00000

At most 19 02723 333740 125180 00000

Source Authors

36






0

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USA 75340 31220 52535 24920 32451 80425 16142 58582

Brazil 70609 08813 89311 04341 118017 31421 34896 70440

Russia 77612 125327 110425 34878 37666 32531 20684 95616

India 37554 88615 28643 68745 14462 45156 27108 20011

China 72605 55905 65828 98491 44992 74646 19369 79720

South Africa 97203 36750 72784 35206 31078 59433 25869 68574

Australia 11614 44655 02851 08205 109096 02585 32873 15055

Canada 73007 73293 50845 17185 57174 54735 08255 60655

EU 84055 25762 66141 26268 48995 68512 12978 68320

Indonesia 19769 24314 01169 80320 18449 16285 14550 05139

Japan 85308 40028 55534 22141 62552 85835 16891 70244

Malaysia 56649 70935 37736 31557 26228 67378 19406 37956

UK 53469 16542 64573 110048 19054 107249 55380 45530

DR Congo 29744 215520 39112 71369 09432 26191 07574 32377

Egypt 43495 37493 140244 17884 31158 27479 80075 60913

Ghana 03332 39604 21476 261490 10461 04486 12166 24795

Morocco 26742 12945 28298 04647 232156 27901 47621 48632

Nigeria 30411 05806 22706 64205 14887 130388 42022 25243

Tanzania 03455 10693 03545 11170 24621 31812 501363 06036

Tunisia 48028 35778 46245 06928 57070 25551 04778 106163



Total from BRICS 258380 315410 366990 241662 246216 243188 127926 334361

Total from Asia 349497 405125 299335 336134 204349 321832 118008 308685



38




USA 84417 27346 64937 08671 58633 45316 50364 08786

Brazil 62986 17990 52082 67154 42216 23105 79339 53891

Russia 80149 22871 85737 59520 44582 03436 72180 08594

India 24108 88781 32734 41954 80329 59152 35292 31134

China 57369 67788 51214 97239 36961 03302 48212 15927

South Africa 96491 23300 70515 22174 37526 16513 58827 15241

Australia 29237 67747 29516 62979 69457 03181 43946 24635

Canada 68897 31125 55227 47717 82931 07959 61205 05466

EU 71382 41920 40932 09740 82114 44444 71835 16233

Indonesia 45443 03361 37592 03145 24308 04855 20374 05870

Japan 67811 27701 61483 42867 46307 37472 64150 53856

Malaysia 57080 08193 56191 27331 61632 42365 26281 25684

UK 79705 08899 57763 09308 18636 75911 39259 30355

DR Congo 09940 314128 04962 51581 29301 07936 32248 94814

Egypt 33338 15688 113752 57598 34201 18514 40609 16733

Ghana 14299 25910 45405 243033 14637 60390 36649 10144

Morocco 29828 91510 32439 50298 136523 28312 64231 34121

Nigeria 16423 06604 31183 17516 07315 390801 09295 68504

Tunisia 40701 34480 50979 63742 67218 35759 117458 38775

Tanzania 30396 74657 25357 16435 25175 91275 28247 441238



Total from BRICS 224613 220729 292282 288040 241613 105508 293849 124787

Total from Asia 331961 218695 324952 272055 294119 150583 266489 141065



39




USA 09188 00959 09065 00856

Brazil 08344 01108 08742 00260

Russia 08388 02094 08924 00929

India 09000 -01139 08413 -00254

China 09102 01438 08912 00402

South Africa 09028 00416 09035 00097

Australia 07105 -02842 08673 -00439

Canada 08991 00946 08986 01122

EU 09121 01077 08971 00713

Indonesia 07591 -03108 08369 -02587

Japan 08998 01361 08803 00883

Malaysia 09000 00528 08364 00472

UK 08870 00649 08808 -00493

DR Congo 07845 -00328 06859 -00974

Egypt 08598 -00230 08862 -01441

Ghana 07385 -03746 07570 -01304

Morocco 07678 -00723 08635 01011

Nigeria 08696 -01538 06092 -02776

Tanzania 04986 -03598 05588 -00770


40




USA 918838 1116203 197365 906516 1080837 174321

Brazil 834405 1048823 214418 874223 922305 48081

Russia 838838 1301518 462681 892421 1076102 183681

India 900031 715701 -184330 841338 842608 01270

China 910213 1216863 306650 891159 966746 75587

South Africa 902797 982282 79485 903509 923706 20197

Australia 710525 395694 -314831 867260 798447 -68813

Canada 899143 1089583 190440 898639 1131561 232923

EU 912144 1134632 222487 897115 1036992 139877

Indonesia 759059 405570 -353488 836906 492962 -343944

Japan 899771 1184811 285039 880287 1054533 174246

Malaysia 899995 1001143 101148 836384 922360 85975

UK 887018 1011048 124029 880782 799256 -81526

DR Congo 784480 738784 -45696 685872 576096 -109776

Egypt 859756 838059 -21696 886248 665117 -221131

Ghana 738510 364252 -374258 756967 607614 -149354

Morocco 767844 666083 -101761 863477 1066309 202831

Nigeria 869612 638121 -231491 609199 351031 -258168

Tanzania 498637 239716 -258921 558762 535112 -23650


16

















global economy















17
























0

20

40

60

80

100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Pe

rce

nta

ge (

)

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18








USA 71778 29440 61788 42154 74728 43927 18340 60843

Brazil 58032 19932 55790 44390 33250 42150 14919 67961

Russia 66697 31216 64970 49067 35979 32582 25549 72983

India 55713 60962 72008 64639 46561 32564 08157 46453

China 68649 57823 73921 90160 55913 54103 16375 75379

South Africa 80744 44883 80196 65987 54168 42197 06952 75993

Australia 27148 31751 25479 38758 25946 44026 26291 34948

Canada 65383 41541 57408 37902 73538 47009 14725 55939

EU 68368 15015 57468 38353 75445 42242 12341 63107

Indonesia 23779 16606 16213 15499 09009 26810 06512 23182

Japan 68181 31048 55894 40754 77014 55484 24794 61861

Malaysia 45584 42499 33993 16137 42698 30786 55850 29298

UK 80756 15008 76576 76385 96626 78466 69155 62834

DR Congo 18171 287238 16923 29821 07776 15582 103410 20364

Egypt 60237 30150 89778 75198 46710 27362 35750 64429

Ghana 33558 41383 52468 121599 42637 46661 27242 37347

Morocco 43059 10130 40407 33048 93997 68184 52822 45226

Nigeria 13664 95792 11543 67823 28771 186518 05394 16720

Tanzania 05952 80171 03841 15953 29832 65904 451662 08304

Tunisia 44544 17412 53335 36375 49400 17444 23759 76830



Total from BRICS 249093 214816 346886 314243 225871 203596 71952 338770

Total from Asia 328605 240154 317000 276255 267174 232328 137238 309157









Brazil and USA

19





























20
















equation (8)















21







7)



USA 09225 01146

Brazil 09120 -00219

Russia 09112 00455

India 09078 -00084

China 09089 01571



Canada 09162 00942

EU 09242 00508


Japan 09058 00983

Malaysia 08912 -00356

UK 08952 01750

DR Congo 07128 -01741

Egypt 09102 00250

Ghana 08784 -00938

Morocco 09060 -00343

Nigeria 08135 -01450

Tanzania 05483 -02800







22











USA 922486 1167212 244726

Brazil 911992 874640 -37352

Russia 911225 1000613 89388

India 907825 898242 -09583

China 908903 1248026 339122

South Africa 919256 1136053 216797

Australia 920363 648580 -271782

Canada 916215 1112171 195956

EU 924230 1029565 105335

Indonesia 870173 369507 -500665

Japan 905765 1109993 204227

Malaysia 891174 833400 -57774

UK 895223 1279940 384716

DR Congo 712762 501596 -211166

Egypt 910222 960466 50244

Ghana 878401 774361 -104040

Morocco 906003 846578 -59425

Nigeria 813482 682922 -130560

Tanzania 548338 329206 -219132




4


23

















transmitters















24









25

References











ndash 505 DOI 1023072109358






South Africa













Bank EuroSystem



httpsdoiorg101111j1468-0297200802208x

26






9780199338306





9780199683666





1023072938189


















27





101257000282803321946804











43 doi 101111apel12218






1765(97)00214-0











102(30) 10421 ndash 10426 doi 101073pnas0500298102

28


Panel 1 Total trade


Mean 84011 81358 88127 67001 77455 80301 85688 74184 72914 84264

Median 84236 79800 90033 67500 83329 75169 86593 68642 71163 83149

Maximum 97207 94582 95355 101668 98959 96559 96925 102321 97017 96790

Minimum 68070 59661 74991 21419 52033 66311 71997 45609 41361 65780

Std Dev 09103 09923 06307 25939 15215 10771 07832 18510 18889 08659

Skewness -02557 -03265 -08339 -01564 -02113 01983 -03892 02254 -01552 -00788

Kurtosis 18436 20982 24076 16568 16486 13023 17853 16793 16301 18843

Jarque-Bera 71942 55790 140960 85592 90220 136781 93660 87637 88786 57136

Probability 00274 00615 00009 00138 00110 00011 00093 00125 00118 00575

Sum 9073191 8786664 9517664 7236112 8365173 8672560 9254352 8011865 7874676 9100564

Sum Sq Dev 886614 1053555 425632 7199027 2477109 1241421 656302 3666218 3817577 802300

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 87236 83778 83738 76289 82244 86661 78667 79968 86786 85707

Median 87044 84389 82930 73778 83385 86057 79551 77917 88201 86262

Maximum 95578 94754 98656 93881 95886 96149 101364 94617 95788 95813

Minimum 77730 59370 71394 59040 66530 73517 55142 63446 74210 70590

Std Dev 05861 09711 08697 11261 10013 07122 14826 10113 06881 07874

Skewness -01509 -07693 00520 00961 -00788 -03648 00245 00168 -05261 -05221

Kurtosis 16540 25582 15010 14196 14106 19515 16529 15297 18919 20504

Jarque-Bera 85624 115304 101596 114054 114789 73429 81769 97338 105077 89641

Probability 00138 00031 00062 00033 00032 00254 00168 00077 00052 00113

Sum 9421434 9048058 9043667 8239173 8882388 9359360 8495988 8636512 9372902 9256322

Sum Sq Dev 367539 1009027 809327 1356855 1072816 542746 2351912 1094302 506657 663408

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

29

Panel 2 Exports


Mean 43295 41726 44997 33564 39203 39204 42884 37423 36712 41902

Median 43989 42513 46369 33563 40228 37215 43260 34893 36168 41063

Maximum 49267 47480 48047 50647 51078 48075 48591 52280 49347 48121

Minimum 35181 32658 38487 10999 28248 31282 35764 22685 20866 32299

Std Dev 03567 04627 02889 12951 07307 05704 03974 09473 09485 04404

Skewness -05126 -03390 -11139 -01593 01003 01444 -03788 02615 -01339 -00785

Kurtosis 24040 16695 28948 16237 17569 13333 18292 17687 15771 19101

Jarque-Bera 63277 100352 223840 89813 71350 128756 87513 80535 94336 54568

Probability 00423 00066 00000 00112 00282 00016 00126 00178 00089 00653

Sum 4675847 4506379 4859645 3624899 4233933 4234076 4631435 4041731 3964876 4525383

Sum Sq Dev 136178 229032 89333 1794823 571317 348181 168996 960184 962699 207557

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 42639 41893 42189 40448 42248 44177 39647 39949 43572 42808

Median 42484 42653 42154 38822 43018 44454 41144 39034 43987 42616

Maximum 47407 47004 48937 48585 47489 47584 52432 47544 47638 47884

Minimum 36895 30077 36326 33208 34602 38788 25067 31643 37575 35685

Std Dev 03435 04889 04158 05011 03967 02711 07820 04997 03222 03643

Skewness -00975 -08534 -00141 03327 -03128 -05993 -02009 -00408 -05455 -02672

Kurtosis 15123 25749 15233 15819 16434 21907 19619 15902 19928 19945

Jarque-Bera 101311 139237 98169 110416 100430 94126 55756 89743 99206 58349

Probability 00063 00009 00074 00040 00066 00090 00616 00113 00070 00541

Sum 4605043 4524443 4556463 4368366 4562831 4771111 4281869 4314453 4705765 4623307

Sum Sq Dev 126277 255735 184992 268627 168392 78665 654348 267198 111068 141975

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

30

Panel 3 Imports


Mean 40716 39632 43130 33437 38252 41097 42805 36761 36202 42363

Median 40293 38797 43425 33938 42632 38025 43333 33749 34995 42524

Maximum 48275 47789 47365 51059 47958 48484 48334 50553 48606 48670

Minimum 31854 27002 36458 10124 23431 34572 36232 22924 19763 33482

Std Dev 05623 05535 03511 13000 08121 05130 03861 09070 09426 04291

Skewness -01054 -02950 -05179 -01564 -04266 02822 -03998 01867 -01796 -00986

Kurtosis 16142 23579 19916 16996 17030 13341 17464 15966 16997 18396

Jarque-Bera 88414 34218 94030 80500 108455 139220 99495 94901 81891 62349

Probability 00120 01807 00091 00179 00044 00009 00069 00087 00167 00443

Sum 4397345 4280285 4658019 3611214 4131240 4438484 4622917 3970134 3909800 4575180

Sum Sq Dev 338298 327825 131914 1808338 705702 281581 159501 880160 950711 197015

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 44596 41885 41548 35841 39996 42484 39020 40019 43214 42898

Median 44561 41759 40821 35106 40211 41620 38407 38883 44214 44011

Maximum 48381 47750 49720 46132 49229 48587 49650 47288 48210 47980

Minimum 40342 29293 35068 24090 30390 34645 29905 31802 36600 34622

Std Dev 02461 04854 04568 06666 06219 04457 07157 05136 03670 04301

Skewness -02384 -06748 01142 00167 00316 -02192 02042 00811 -05114 -06862

Kurtosis 19290 25254 14961 15951 14596 18055 14998 14947 18138 20792

Jarque-Bera 61848 92090 104121 88865 106955 72860 108786 103152 110391 122905

Probability 00454 00100 00055 00118 00048 00262 00043 00058 00040 00021

Sum 4816391 4523614 4487204 3870807 4319557 4588249 4214119 4322059 4667138 4633015

Sum Sq Dev 64784 252086 223300 475453 413775 212507 548102 282235 144087 197896

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

31


Panel 1 Total Trade

Panel 2 Exports

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Panel 3 Imports


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level Critical

value at 5

PP Test stat at

1st Diff

Critical value at 5


Australia -2087649 -3452358 -5511474 -3452764 I(1)

Brazil -151073 -3452358 -4815699 -3452764 I(1)

Canada -1688886 -3452358 -4919794 -3452764 I(1)

China -0761713 -3452358 -4666041 -3452764 I(1)

DRCongo -2701397 -3452358 -4969701 -3452764 I(1)

Egypt -1110372 -3452358 -4587926 -3452764 I(1)

EU -2479035 -3452358 -4796753 -3452764 I(1)

Ghana -1789434 -3452358 -4749838 -3452764 I(1)

India -0176913 -3452358 -5580811 -3452764 I(1)

Indonesia -1940294 -3452358 -7723706 -3452764 I(1)

Japan -27304 -3452358 -4666113 -3452764 I(1)

Malaysia -1798537 -3452358 -5140808 -3452764 I(1)

Morocco -3427262 -3452358 -5251978 -3452764 I(1)

Nigeria -1885798 -3452358 -6573952 -3452764 I(1)

Russia -2427019 -3452358 -4584745 -3452764 I(1)

Safrica -2459347 -3452358 -5061753 -3452764 I(1)

Tanzania -2080362 -3452358 -4639207 -3452764 I(1)

Tunisia -2521464 -3452358 -4922059 -3452764 I(1)

UK -292419 -3452358 -4914527 -3452764 I(1)



34


Panel 1 Trace test



None 08119 20372650 7605409 00000

At most 1 07484 18618330 6950496 00000

At most 2 06943 17169350 6409570 00000

At most 3 06896 15925080 5945066 00000

At most 4 06813 14696730 5486505 00000

At most 5 06751 13496030 5038266 00000

At most 6 06619 12315570 4597583 00000

At most 7 06605 11176950 4172519 00000

At most 8 06570 10042670 3749076 00000

At most 9 06534 8919101 3220692 00000

At most 10 06439 7806611 2731889 00000

At most 11 06424 6722533 2282979 00001

At most 12 06365 5642802 1874701 00000

At most 13 06312 4580251 1505585 00000

At most 14 06183 3532980 1177082 00000

At most 15 05059 2521643 888038 00000

At most 16 04229 1781345 638761 00000

At most 17 03477 1204084 429153 00000

At most 18 03308 755525 258721 00000

At most 19 02723 333740 125180 00000



Max-Eigen Stat


None 08119 1754311 1262691 00000

At most 1 07484 1448984 1042928 00000

At most 2 06943 1244273 895584 00000

At most 3 06896 1228346 884120 00000

At most 4 06813 1200704 864224 00000

At most 5 06751 1180455 849650 00000

At most 6 06619 1138626 819543 00000

At most 7 06605 1134280 816415 00000

At most 8 06570 1123565 808703 00000

At most 9 06534 1112489 748375 00000

At most 10 06439 1084078 688121 00000

At most 11 06424 1079731 627522 00000

35

At most 12 06365 1062552 567052 00000

At most 13 06312 1047271 505999 00000

At most 14 06183 1011337 444972 00000

At most 15 05059 740298 383310 00000

At most 16 04229 577261 321183 00000

At most 17 03477 448558 258232 00001

At most 18 03308 421785 193870 00000

At most 19 02723 333740 125180 00000

Source Authors

36






0

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100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Pe

rce

nta

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5)

Horizon

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Pe

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37





USA 75340 31220 52535 24920 32451 80425 16142 58582

Brazil 70609 08813 89311 04341 118017 31421 34896 70440

Russia 77612 125327 110425 34878 37666 32531 20684 95616

India 37554 88615 28643 68745 14462 45156 27108 20011

China 72605 55905 65828 98491 44992 74646 19369 79720

South Africa 97203 36750 72784 35206 31078 59433 25869 68574

Australia 11614 44655 02851 08205 109096 02585 32873 15055

Canada 73007 73293 50845 17185 57174 54735 08255 60655

EU 84055 25762 66141 26268 48995 68512 12978 68320

Indonesia 19769 24314 01169 80320 18449 16285 14550 05139

Japan 85308 40028 55534 22141 62552 85835 16891 70244

Malaysia 56649 70935 37736 31557 26228 67378 19406 37956

UK 53469 16542 64573 110048 19054 107249 55380 45530

DR Congo 29744 215520 39112 71369 09432 26191 07574 32377

Egypt 43495 37493 140244 17884 31158 27479 80075 60913

Ghana 03332 39604 21476 261490 10461 04486 12166 24795

Morocco 26742 12945 28298 04647 232156 27901 47621 48632

Nigeria 30411 05806 22706 64205 14887 130388 42022 25243

Tanzania 03455 10693 03545 11170 24621 31812 501363 06036

Tunisia 48028 35778 46245 06928 57070 25551 04778 106163



Total from BRICS 258380 315410 366990 241662 246216 243188 127926 334361

Total from Asia 349497 405125 299335 336134 204349 321832 118008 308685



38




USA 84417 27346 64937 08671 58633 45316 50364 08786

Brazil 62986 17990 52082 67154 42216 23105 79339 53891

Russia 80149 22871 85737 59520 44582 03436 72180 08594

India 24108 88781 32734 41954 80329 59152 35292 31134

China 57369 67788 51214 97239 36961 03302 48212 15927

South Africa 96491 23300 70515 22174 37526 16513 58827 15241

Australia 29237 67747 29516 62979 69457 03181 43946 24635

Canada 68897 31125 55227 47717 82931 07959 61205 05466

EU 71382 41920 40932 09740 82114 44444 71835 16233

Indonesia 45443 03361 37592 03145 24308 04855 20374 05870

Japan 67811 27701 61483 42867 46307 37472 64150 53856

Malaysia 57080 08193 56191 27331 61632 42365 26281 25684

UK 79705 08899 57763 09308 18636 75911 39259 30355

DR Congo 09940 314128 04962 51581 29301 07936 32248 94814

Egypt 33338 15688 113752 57598 34201 18514 40609 16733

Ghana 14299 25910 45405 243033 14637 60390 36649 10144

Morocco 29828 91510 32439 50298 136523 28312 64231 34121

Nigeria 16423 06604 31183 17516 07315 390801 09295 68504

Tunisia 40701 34480 50979 63742 67218 35759 117458 38775

Tanzania 30396 74657 25357 16435 25175 91275 28247 441238



Total from BRICS 224613 220729 292282 288040 241613 105508 293849 124787

Total from Asia 331961 218695 324952 272055 294119 150583 266489 141065



39




USA 09188 00959 09065 00856

Brazil 08344 01108 08742 00260

Russia 08388 02094 08924 00929

India 09000 -01139 08413 -00254

China 09102 01438 08912 00402

South Africa 09028 00416 09035 00097

Australia 07105 -02842 08673 -00439

Canada 08991 00946 08986 01122

EU 09121 01077 08971 00713

Indonesia 07591 -03108 08369 -02587

Japan 08998 01361 08803 00883

Malaysia 09000 00528 08364 00472

UK 08870 00649 08808 -00493

DR Congo 07845 -00328 06859 -00974

Egypt 08598 -00230 08862 -01441

Ghana 07385 -03746 07570 -01304

Morocco 07678 -00723 08635 01011

Nigeria 08696 -01538 06092 -02776

Tanzania 04986 -03598 05588 -00770


40




USA 918838 1116203 197365 906516 1080837 174321

Brazil 834405 1048823 214418 874223 922305 48081

Russia 838838 1301518 462681 892421 1076102 183681

India 900031 715701 -184330 841338 842608 01270

China 910213 1216863 306650 891159 966746 75587

South Africa 902797 982282 79485 903509 923706 20197

Australia 710525 395694 -314831 867260 798447 -68813

Canada 899143 1089583 190440 898639 1131561 232923

EU 912144 1134632 222487 897115 1036992 139877

Indonesia 759059 405570 -353488 836906 492962 -343944

Japan 899771 1184811 285039 880287 1054533 174246

Malaysia 899995 1001143 101148 836384 922360 85975

UK 887018 1011048 124029 880782 799256 -81526

DR Congo 784480 738784 -45696 685872 576096 -109776

Egypt 859756 838059 -21696 886248 665117 -221131

Ghana 738510 364252 -374258 756967 607614 -149354

Morocco 767844 666083 -101761 863477 1066309 202831

Nigeria 869612 638121 -231491 609199 351031 -258168

Tanzania 498637 239716 -258921 558762 535112 -23650


17
























0

20

40

60

80

100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Pe

rce

nta

ge (

)

Horizon

18








USA 71778 29440 61788 42154 74728 43927 18340 60843

Brazil 58032 19932 55790 44390 33250 42150 14919 67961

Russia 66697 31216 64970 49067 35979 32582 25549 72983

India 55713 60962 72008 64639 46561 32564 08157 46453

China 68649 57823 73921 90160 55913 54103 16375 75379

South Africa 80744 44883 80196 65987 54168 42197 06952 75993

Australia 27148 31751 25479 38758 25946 44026 26291 34948

Canada 65383 41541 57408 37902 73538 47009 14725 55939

EU 68368 15015 57468 38353 75445 42242 12341 63107

Indonesia 23779 16606 16213 15499 09009 26810 06512 23182

Japan 68181 31048 55894 40754 77014 55484 24794 61861

Malaysia 45584 42499 33993 16137 42698 30786 55850 29298

UK 80756 15008 76576 76385 96626 78466 69155 62834

DR Congo 18171 287238 16923 29821 07776 15582 103410 20364

Egypt 60237 30150 89778 75198 46710 27362 35750 64429

Ghana 33558 41383 52468 121599 42637 46661 27242 37347

Morocco 43059 10130 40407 33048 93997 68184 52822 45226

Nigeria 13664 95792 11543 67823 28771 186518 05394 16720

Tanzania 05952 80171 03841 15953 29832 65904 451662 08304

Tunisia 44544 17412 53335 36375 49400 17444 23759 76830



Total from BRICS 249093 214816 346886 314243 225871 203596 71952 338770

Total from Asia 328605 240154 317000 276255 267174 232328 137238 309157









Brazil and USA

19





























20
















equation (8)















21







7)



USA 09225 01146

Brazil 09120 -00219

Russia 09112 00455

India 09078 -00084

China 09089 01571



Canada 09162 00942

EU 09242 00508


Japan 09058 00983

Malaysia 08912 -00356

UK 08952 01750

DR Congo 07128 -01741

Egypt 09102 00250

Ghana 08784 -00938

Morocco 09060 -00343

Nigeria 08135 -01450

Tanzania 05483 -02800







22











USA 922486 1167212 244726

Brazil 911992 874640 -37352

Russia 911225 1000613 89388

India 907825 898242 -09583

China 908903 1248026 339122

South Africa 919256 1136053 216797

Australia 920363 648580 -271782

Canada 916215 1112171 195956

EU 924230 1029565 105335

Indonesia 870173 369507 -500665

Japan 905765 1109993 204227

Malaysia 891174 833400 -57774

UK 895223 1279940 384716

DR Congo 712762 501596 -211166

Egypt 910222 960466 50244

Ghana 878401 774361 -104040

Morocco 906003 846578 -59425

Nigeria 813482 682922 -130560

Tanzania 548338 329206 -219132




4


23

















transmitters















24









25

References











ndash 505 DOI 1023072109358






South Africa













Bank EuroSystem



httpsdoiorg101111j1468-0297200802208x

26






9780199338306





9780199683666





1023072938189


















27





101257000282803321946804











43 doi 101111apel12218






1765(97)00214-0











102(30) 10421 ndash 10426 doi 101073pnas0500298102

28


Panel 1 Total trade


Mean 84011 81358 88127 67001 77455 80301 85688 74184 72914 84264

Median 84236 79800 90033 67500 83329 75169 86593 68642 71163 83149

Maximum 97207 94582 95355 101668 98959 96559 96925 102321 97017 96790

Minimum 68070 59661 74991 21419 52033 66311 71997 45609 41361 65780

Std Dev 09103 09923 06307 25939 15215 10771 07832 18510 18889 08659

Skewness -02557 -03265 -08339 -01564 -02113 01983 -03892 02254 -01552 -00788

Kurtosis 18436 20982 24076 16568 16486 13023 17853 16793 16301 18843

Jarque-Bera 71942 55790 140960 85592 90220 136781 93660 87637 88786 57136

Probability 00274 00615 00009 00138 00110 00011 00093 00125 00118 00575

Sum 9073191 8786664 9517664 7236112 8365173 8672560 9254352 8011865 7874676 9100564

Sum Sq Dev 886614 1053555 425632 7199027 2477109 1241421 656302 3666218 3817577 802300

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 87236 83778 83738 76289 82244 86661 78667 79968 86786 85707

Median 87044 84389 82930 73778 83385 86057 79551 77917 88201 86262

Maximum 95578 94754 98656 93881 95886 96149 101364 94617 95788 95813

Minimum 77730 59370 71394 59040 66530 73517 55142 63446 74210 70590

Std Dev 05861 09711 08697 11261 10013 07122 14826 10113 06881 07874

Skewness -01509 -07693 00520 00961 -00788 -03648 00245 00168 -05261 -05221

Kurtosis 16540 25582 15010 14196 14106 19515 16529 15297 18919 20504

Jarque-Bera 85624 115304 101596 114054 114789 73429 81769 97338 105077 89641

Probability 00138 00031 00062 00033 00032 00254 00168 00077 00052 00113

Sum 9421434 9048058 9043667 8239173 8882388 9359360 8495988 8636512 9372902 9256322

Sum Sq Dev 367539 1009027 809327 1356855 1072816 542746 2351912 1094302 506657 663408

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

29

Panel 2 Exports


Mean 43295 41726 44997 33564 39203 39204 42884 37423 36712 41902

Median 43989 42513 46369 33563 40228 37215 43260 34893 36168 41063

Maximum 49267 47480 48047 50647 51078 48075 48591 52280 49347 48121

Minimum 35181 32658 38487 10999 28248 31282 35764 22685 20866 32299

Std Dev 03567 04627 02889 12951 07307 05704 03974 09473 09485 04404

Skewness -05126 -03390 -11139 -01593 01003 01444 -03788 02615 -01339 -00785

Kurtosis 24040 16695 28948 16237 17569 13333 18292 17687 15771 19101

Jarque-Bera 63277 100352 223840 89813 71350 128756 87513 80535 94336 54568

Probability 00423 00066 00000 00112 00282 00016 00126 00178 00089 00653

Sum 4675847 4506379 4859645 3624899 4233933 4234076 4631435 4041731 3964876 4525383

Sum Sq Dev 136178 229032 89333 1794823 571317 348181 168996 960184 962699 207557

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 42639 41893 42189 40448 42248 44177 39647 39949 43572 42808

Median 42484 42653 42154 38822 43018 44454 41144 39034 43987 42616

Maximum 47407 47004 48937 48585 47489 47584 52432 47544 47638 47884

Minimum 36895 30077 36326 33208 34602 38788 25067 31643 37575 35685

Std Dev 03435 04889 04158 05011 03967 02711 07820 04997 03222 03643

Skewness -00975 -08534 -00141 03327 -03128 -05993 -02009 -00408 -05455 -02672

Kurtosis 15123 25749 15233 15819 16434 21907 19619 15902 19928 19945

Jarque-Bera 101311 139237 98169 110416 100430 94126 55756 89743 99206 58349

Probability 00063 00009 00074 00040 00066 00090 00616 00113 00070 00541

Sum 4605043 4524443 4556463 4368366 4562831 4771111 4281869 4314453 4705765 4623307

Sum Sq Dev 126277 255735 184992 268627 168392 78665 654348 267198 111068 141975

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

30

Panel 3 Imports


Mean 40716 39632 43130 33437 38252 41097 42805 36761 36202 42363

Median 40293 38797 43425 33938 42632 38025 43333 33749 34995 42524

Maximum 48275 47789 47365 51059 47958 48484 48334 50553 48606 48670

Minimum 31854 27002 36458 10124 23431 34572 36232 22924 19763 33482

Std Dev 05623 05535 03511 13000 08121 05130 03861 09070 09426 04291

Skewness -01054 -02950 -05179 -01564 -04266 02822 -03998 01867 -01796 -00986

Kurtosis 16142 23579 19916 16996 17030 13341 17464 15966 16997 18396

Jarque-Bera 88414 34218 94030 80500 108455 139220 99495 94901 81891 62349

Probability 00120 01807 00091 00179 00044 00009 00069 00087 00167 00443

Sum 4397345 4280285 4658019 3611214 4131240 4438484 4622917 3970134 3909800 4575180

Sum Sq Dev 338298 327825 131914 1808338 705702 281581 159501 880160 950711 197015

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 44596 41885 41548 35841 39996 42484 39020 40019 43214 42898

Median 44561 41759 40821 35106 40211 41620 38407 38883 44214 44011

Maximum 48381 47750 49720 46132 49229 48587 49650 47288 48210 47980

Minimum 40342 29293 35068 24090 30390 34645 29905 31802 36600 34622

Std Dev 02461 04854 04568 06666 06219 04457 07157 05136 03670 04301

Skewness -02384 -06748 01142 00167 00316 -02192 02042 00811 -05114 -06862

Kurtosis 19290 25254 14961 15951 14596 18055 14998 14947 18138 20792

Jarque-Bera 61848 92090 104121 88865 106955 72860 108786 103152 110391 122905

Probability 00454 00100 00055 00118 00048 00262 00043 00058 00040 00021

Sum 4816391 4523614 4487204 3870807 4319557 4588249 4214119 4322059 4667138 4633015

Sum Sq Dev 64784 252086 223300 475453 413775 212507 548102 282235 144087 197896

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

31


Panel 1 Total Trade

Panel 2 Exports

0

2

4

6

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121

99

0Q

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Q1

Log

of

Tota

l Tra

de






0

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90

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Log

of

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ort

s






32

Panel 3 Imports


0

1

2

3

4

5

61

99

0Q

1

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91

Q1

19

92

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Q1

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96

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00

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01

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02

Q1

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03

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04

Q1

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05

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Q1

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08

Q1

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09

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Q1

20

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Q1

20

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Q1

20

16

Q1

Log

of

Imp

ort

s






33



level Critical

value at 5

PP Test stat at

1st Diff

Critical value at 5


Australia -2087649 -3452358 -5511474 -3452764 I(1)

Brazil -151073 -3452358 -4815699 -3452764 I(1)

Canada -1688886 -3452358 -4919794 -3452764 I(1)

China -0761713 -3452358 -4666041 -3452764 I(1)

DRCongo -2701397 -3452358 -4969701 -3452764 I(1)

Egypt -1110372 -3452358 -4587926 -3452764 I(1)

EU -2479035 -3452358 -4796753 -3452764 I(1)

Ghana -1789434 -3452358 -4749838 -3452764 I(1)

India -0176913 -3452358 -5580811 -3452764 I(1)

Indonesia -1940294 -3452358 -7723706 -3452764 I(1)

Japan -27304 -3452358 -4666113 -3452764 I(1)

Malaysia -1798537 -3452358 -5140808 -3452764 I(1)

Morocco -3427262 -3452358 -5251978 -3452764 I(1)

Nigeria -1885798 -3452358 -6573952 -3452764 I(1)

Russia -2427019 -3452358 -4584745 -3452764 I(1)

Safrica -2459347 -3452358 -5061753 -3452764 I(1)

Tanzania -2080362 -3452358 -4639207 -3452764 I(1)

Tunisia -2521464 -3452358 -4922059 -3452764 I(1)

UK -292419 -3452358 -4914527 -3452764 I(1)



34


Panel 1 Trace test



None 08119 20372650 7605409 00000

At most 1 07484 18618330 6950496 00000

At most 2 06943 17169350 6409570 00000

At most 3 06896 15925080 5945066 00000

At most 4 06813 14696730 5486505 00000

At most 5 06751 13496030 5038266 00000

At most 6 06619 12315570 4597583 00000

At most 7 06605 11176950 4172519 00000

At most 8 06570 10042670 3749076 00000

At most 9 06534 8919101 3220692 00000

At most 10 06439 7806611 2731889 00000

At most 11 06424 6722533 2282979 00001

At most 12 06365 5642802 1874701 00000

At most 13 06312 4580251 1505585 00000

At most 14 06183 3532980 1177082 00000

At most 15 05059 2521643 888038 00000

At most 16 04229 1781345 638761 00000

At most 17 03477 1204084 429153 00000

At most 18 03308 755525 258721 00000

At most 19 02723 333740 125180 00000



Max-Eigen Stat


None 08119 1754311 1262691 00000

At most 1 07484 1448984 1042928 00000

At most 2 06943 1244273 895584 00000

At most 3 06896 1228346 884120 00000

At most 4 06813 1200704 864224 00000

At most 5 06751 1180455 849650 00000

At most 6 06619 1138626 819543 00000

At most 7 06605 1134280 816415 00000

At most 8 06570 1123565 808703 00000

At most 9 06534 1112489 748375 00000

At most 10 06439 1084078 688121 00000

At most 11 06424 1079731 627522 00000

35

At most 12 06365 1062552 567052 00000

At most 13 06312 1047271 505999 00000

At most 14 06183 1011337 444972 00000

At most 15 05059 740298 383310 00000

At most 16 04229 577261 321183 00000

At most 17 03477 448558 258232 00001

At most 18 03308 421785 193870 00000

At most 19 02723 333740 125180 00000

Source Authors

36






0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Pe

rce

nta

ge (

5)

Horizon

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Pe

rce

nta

ge (

)

Horizon

37





USA 75340 31220 52535 24920 32451 80425 16142 58582

Brazil 70609 08813 89311 04341 118017 31421 34896 70440

Russia 77612 125327 110425 34878 37666 32531 20684 95616

India 37554 88615 28643 68745 14462 45156 27108 20011

China 72605 55905 65828 98491 44992 74646 19369 79720

South Africa 97203 36750 72784 35206 31078 59433 25869 68574

Australia 11614 44655 02851 08205 109096 02585 32873 15055

Canada 73007 73293 50845 17185 57174 54735 08255 60655

EU 84055 25762 66141 26268 48995 68512 12978 68320

Indonesia 19769 24314 01169 80320 18449 16285 14550 05139

Japan 85308 40028 55534 22141 62552 85835 16891 70244

Malaysia 56649 70935 37736 31557 26228 67378 19406 37956

UK 53469 16542 64573 110048 19054 107249 55380 45530

DR Congo 29744 215520 39112 71369 09432 26191 07574 32377

Egypt 43495 37493 140244 17884 31158 27479 80075 60913

Ghana 03332 39604 21476 261490 10461 04486 12166 24795

Morocco 26742 12945 28298 04647 232156 27901 47621 48632

Nigeria 30411 05806 22706 64205 14887 130388 42022 25243

Tanzania 03455 10693 03545 11170 24621 31812 501363 06036

Tunisia 48028 35778 46245 06928 57070 25551 04778 106163



Total from BRICS 258380 315410 366990 241662 246216 243188 127926 334361

Total from Asia 349497 405125 299335 336134 204349 321832 118008 308685



38




USA 84417 27346 64937 08671 58633 45316 50364 08786

Brazil 62986 17990 52082 67154 42216 23105 79339 53891

Russia 80149 22871 85737 59520 44582 03436 72180 08594

India 24108 88781 32734 41954 80329 59152 35292 31134

China 57369 67788 51214 97239 36961 03302 48212 15927

South Africa 96491 23300 70515 22174 37526 16513 58827 15241

Australia 29237 67747 29516 62979 69457 03181 43946 24635

Canada 68897 31125 55227 47717 82931 07959 61205 05466

EU 71382 41920 40932 09740 82114 44444 71835 16233

Indonesia 45443 03361 37592 03145 24308 04855 20374 05870

Japan 67811 27701 61483 42867 46307 37472 64150 53856

Malaysia 57080 08193 56191 27331 61632 42365 26281 25684

UK 79705 08899 57763 09308 18636 75911 39259 30355

DR Congo 09940 314128 04962 51581 29301 07936 32248 94814

Egypt 33338 15688 113752 57598 34201 18514 40609 16733

Ghana 14299 25910 45405 243033 14637 60390 36649 10144

Morocco 29828 91510 32439 50298 136523 28312 64231 34121

Nigeria 16423 06604 31183 17516 07315 390801 09295 68504

Tunisia 40701 34480 50979 63742 67218 35759 117458 38775

Tanzania 30396 74657 25357 16435 25175 91275 28247 441238



Total from BRICS 224613 220729 292282 288040 241613 105508 293849 124787

Total from Asia 331961 218695 324952 272055 294119 150583 266489 141065



39




USA 09188 00959 09065 00856

Brazil 08344 01108 08742 00260

Russia 08388 02094 08924 00929

India 09000 -01139 08413 -00254

China 09102 01438 08912 00402

South Africa 09028 00416 09035 00097

Australia 07105 -02842 08673 -00439

Canada 08991 00946 08986 01122

EU 09121 01077 08971 00713

Indonesia 07591 -03108 08369 -02587

Japan 08998 01361 08803 00883

Malaysia 09000 00528 08364 00472

UK 08870 00649 08808 -00493

DR Congo 07845 -00328 06859 -00974

Egypt 08598 -00230 08862 -01441

Ghana 07385 -03746 07570 -01304

Morocco 07678 -00723 08635 01011

Nigeria 08696 -01538 06092 -02776

Tanzania 04986 -03598 05588 -00770


40




USA 918838 1116203 197365 906516 1080837 174321

Brazil 834405 1048823 214418 874223 922305 48081

Russia 838838 1301518 462681 892421 1076102 183681

India 900031 715701 -184330 841338 842608 01270

China 910213 1216863 306650 891159 966746 75587

South Africa 902797 982282 79485 903509 923706 20197

Australia 710525 395694 -314831 867260 798447 -68813

Canada 899143 1089583 190440 898639 1131561 232923

EU 912144 1134632 222487 897115 1036992 139877

Indonesia 759059 405570 -353488 836906 492962 -343944

Japan 899771 1184811 285039 880287 1054533 174246

Malaysia 899995 1001143 101148 836384 922360 85975

UK 887018 1011048 124029 880782 799256 -81526

DR Congo 784480 738784 -45696 685872 576096 -109776

Egypt 859756 838059 -21696 886248 665117 -221131

Ghana 738510 364252 -374258 756967 607614 -149354

Morocco 767844 666083 -101761 863477 1066309 202831

Nigeria 869612 638121 -231491 609199 351031 -258168

Tanzania 498637 239716 -258921 558762 535112 -23650


18








USA 71778 29440 61788 42154 74728 43927 18340 60843

Brazil 58032 19932 55790 44390 33250 42150 14919 67961

Russia 66697 31216 64970 49067 35979 32582 25549 72983

India 55713 60962 72008 64639 46561 32564 08157 46453

China 68649 57823 73921 90160 55913 54103 16375 75379

South Africa 80744 44883 80196 65987 54168 42197 06952 75993

Australia 27148 31751 25479 38758 25946 44026 26291 34948

Canada 65383 41541 57408 37902 73538 47009 14725 55939

EU 68368 15015 57468 38353 75445 42242 12341 63107

Indonesia 23779 16606 16213 15499 09009 26810 06512 23182

Japan 68181 31048 55894 40754 77014 55484 24794 61861

Malaysia 45584 42499 33993 16137 42698 30786 55850 29298

UK 80756 15008 76576 76385 96626 78466 69155 62834

DR Congo 18171 287238 16923 29821 07776 15582 103410 20364

Egypt 60237 30150 89778 75198 46710 27362 35750 64429

Ghana 33558 41383 52468 121599 42637 46661 27242 37347

Morocco 43059 10130 40407 33048 93997 68184 52822 45226

Nigeria 13664 95792 11543 67823 28771 186518 05394 16720

Tanzania 05952 80171 03841 15953 29832 65904 451662 08304

Tunisia 44544 17412 53335 36375 49400 17444 23759 76830



Total from BRICS 249093 214816 346886 314243 225871 203596 71952 338770

Total from Asia 328605 240154 317000 276255 267174 232328 137238 309157









Brazil and USA

19





























20
















equation (8)















21







7)



USA 09225 01146

Brazil 09120 -00219

Russia 09112 00455

India 09078 -00084

China 09089 01571



Canada 09162 00942

EU 09242 00508


Japan 09058 00983

Malaysia 08912 -00356

UK 08952 01750

DR Congo 07128 -01741

Egypt 09102 00250

Ghana 08784 -00938

Morocco 09060 -00343

Nigeria 08135 -01450

Tanzania 05483 -02800







22











USA 922486 1167212 244726

Brazil 911992 874640 -37352

Russia 911225 1000613 89388

India 907825 898242 -09583

China 908903 1248026 339122

South Africa 919256 1136053 216797

Australia 920363 648580 -271782

Canada 916215 1112171 195956

EU 924230 1029565 105335

Indonesia 870173 369507 -500665

Japan 905765 1109993 204227

Malaysia 891174 833400 -57774

UK 895223 1279940 384716

DR Congo 712762 501596 -211166

Egypt 910222 960466 50244

Ghana 878401 774361 -104040

Morocco 906003 846578 -59425

Nigeria 813482 682922 -130560

Tanzania 548338 329206 -219132




4


23

















transmitters















24









25

References











ndash 505 DOI 1023072109358






South Africa













Bank EuroSystem



httpsdoiorg101111j1468-0297200802208x

26






9780199338306





9780199683666





1023072938189


















27





101257000282803321946804











43 doi 101111apel12218






1765(97)00214-0











102(30) 10421 ndash 10426 doi 101073pnas0500298102

28


Panel 1 Total trade


Mean 84011 81358 88127 67001 77455 80301 85688 74184 72914 84264

Median 84236 79800 90033 67500 83329 75169 86593 68642 71163 83149

Maximum 97207 94582 95355 101668 98959 96559 96925 102321 97017 96790

Minimum 68070 59661 74991 21419 52033 66311 71997 45609 41361 65780

Std Dev 09103 09923 06307 25939 15215 10771 07832 18510 18889 08659

Skewness -02557 -03265 -08339 -01564 -02113 01983 -03892 02254 -01552 -00788

Kurtosis 18436 20982 24076 16568 16486 13023 17853 16793 16301 18843

Jarque-Bera 71942 55790 140960 85592 90220 136781 93660 87637 88786 57136

Probability 00274 00615 00009 00138 00110 00011 00093 00125 00118 00575

Sum 9073191 8786664 9517664 7236112 8365173 8672560 9254352 8011865 7874676 9100564

Sum Sq Dev 886614 1053555 425632 7199027 2477109 1241421 656302 3666218 3817577 802300

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 87236 83778 83738 76289 82244 86661 78667 79968 86786 85707

Median 87044 84389 82930 73778 83385 86057 79551 77917 88201 86262

Maximum 95578 94754 98656 93881 95886 96149 101364 94617 95788 95813

Minimum 77730 59370 71394 59040 66530 73517 55142 63446 74210 70590

Std Dev 05861 09711 08697 11261 10013 07122 14826 10113 06881 07874

Skewness -01509 -07693 00520 00961 -00788 -03648 00245 00168 -05261 -05221

Kurtosis 16540 25582 15010 14196 14106 19515 16529 15297 18919 20504

Jarque-Bera 85624 115304 101596 114054 114789 73429 81769 97338 105077 89641

Probability 00138 00031 00062 00033 00032 00254 00168 00077 00052 00113

Sum 9421434 9048058 9043667 8239173 8882388 9359360 8495988 8636512 9372902 9256322

Sum Sq Dev 367539 1009027 809327 1356855 1072816 542746 2351912 1094302 506657 663408

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

29

Panel 2 Exports


Mean 43295 41726 44997 33564 39203 39204 42884 37423 36712 41902

Median 43989 42513 46369 33563 40228 37215 43260 34893 36168 41063

Maximum 49267 47480 48047 50647 51078 48075 48591 52280 49347 48121

Minimum 35181 32658 38487 10999 28248 31282 35764 22685 20866 32299

Std Dev 03567 04627 02889 12951 07307 05704 03974 09473 09485 04404

Skewness -05126 -03390 -11139 -01593 01003 01444 -03788 02615 -01339 -00785

Kurtosis 24040 16695 28948 16237 17569 13333 18292 17687 15771 19101

Jarque-Bera 63277 100352 223840 89813 71350 128756 87513 80535 94336 54568

Probability 00423 00066 00000 00112 00282 00016 00126 00178 00089 00653

Sum 4675847 4506379 4859645 3624899 4233933 4234076 4631435 4041731 3964876 4525383

Sum Sq Dev 136178 229032 89333 1794823 571317 348181 168996 960184 962699 207557

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 42639 41893 42189 40448 42248 44177 39647 39949 43572 42808

Median 42484 42653 42154 38822 43018 44454 41144 39034 43987 42616

Maximum 47407 47004 48937 48585 47489 47584 52432 47544 47638 47884

Minimum 36895 30077 36326 33208 34602 38788 25067 31643 37575 35685

Std Dev 03435 04889 04158 05011 03967 02711 07820 04997 03222 03643

Skewness -00975 -08534 -00141 03327 -03128 -05993 -02009 -00408 -05455 -02672

Kurtosis 15123 25749 15233 15819 16434 21907 19619 15902 19928 19945

Jarque-Bera 101311 139237 98169 110416 100430 94126 55756 89743 99206 58349

Probability 00063 00009 00074 00040 00066 00090 00616 00113 00070 00541

Sum 4605043 4524443 4556463 4368366 4562831 4771111 4281869 4314453 4705765 4623307

Sum Sq Dev 126277 255735 184992 268627 168392 78665 654348 267198 111068 141975

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

30

Panel 3 Imports


Mean 40716 39632 43130 33437 38252 41097 42805 36761 36202 42363

Median 40293 38797 43425 33938 42632 38025 43333 33749 34995 42524

Maximum 48275 47789 47365 51059 47958 48484 48334 50553 48606 48670

Minimum 31854 27002 36458 10124 23431 34572 36232 22924 19763 33482

Std Dev 05623 05535 03511 13000 08121 05130 03861 09070 09426 04291

Skewness -01054 -02950 -05179 -01564 -04266 02822 -03998 01867 -01796 -00986

Kurtosis 16142 23579 19916 16996 17030 13341 17464 15966 16997 18396

Jarque-Bera 88414 34218 94030 80500 108455 139220 99495 94901 81891 62349

Probability 00120 01807 00091 00179 00044 00009 00069 00087 00167 00443

Sum 4397345 4280285 4658019 3611214 4131240 4438484 4622917 3970134 3909800 4575180

Sum Sq Dev 338298 327825 131914 1808338 705702 281581 159501 880160 950711 197015

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 44596 41885 41548 35841 39996 42484 39020 40019 43214 42898

Median 44561 41759 40821 35106 40211 41620 38407 38883 44214 44011

Maximum 48381 47750 49720 46132 49229 48587 49650 47288 48210 47980

Minimum 40342 29293 35068 24090 30390 34645 29905 31802 36600 34622

Std Dev 02461 04854 04568 06666 06219 04457 07157 05136 03670 04301

Skewness -02384 -06748 01142 00167 00316 -02192 02042 00811 -05114 -06862

Kurtosis 19290 25254 14961 15951 14596 18055 14998 14947 18138 20792

Jarque-Bera 61848 92090 104121 88865 106955 72860 108786 103152 110391 122905

Probability 00454 00100 00055 00118 00048 00262 00043 00058 00040 00021

Sum 4816391 4523614 4487204 3870807 4319557 4588249 4214119 4322059 4667138 4633015

Sum Sq Dev 64784 252086 223300 475453 413775 212507 548102 282235 144087 197896

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

31


Panel 1 Total Trade

Panel 2 Exports

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33



level Critical

value at 5

PP Test stat at

1st Diff

Critical value at 5


Australia -2087649 -3452358 -5511474 -3452764 I(1)

Brazil -151073 -3452358 -4815699 -3452764 I(1)

Canada -1688886 -3452358 -4919794 -3452764 I(1)

China -0761713 -3452358 -4666041 -3452764 I(1)

DRCongo -2701397 -3452358 -4969701 -3452764 I(1)

Egypt -1110372 -3452358 -4587926 -3452764 I(1)

EU -2479035 -3452358 -4796753 -3452764 I(1)

Ghana -1789434 -3452358 -4749838 -3452764 I(1)

India -0176913 -3452358 -5580811 -3452764 I(1)

Indonesia -1940294 -3452358 -7723706 -3452764 I(1)

Japan -27304 -3452358 -4666113 -3452764 I(1)

Malaysia -1798537 -3452358 -5140808 -3452764 I(1)

Morocco -3427262 -3452358 -5251978 -3452764 I(1)

Nigeria -1885798 -3452358 -6573952 -3452764 I(1)

Russia -2427019 -3452358 -4584745 -3452764 I(1)

Safrica -2459347 -3452358 -5061753 -3452764 I(1)

Tanzania -2080362 -3452358 -4639207 -3452764 I(1)

Tunisia -2521464 -3452358 -4922059 -3452764 I(1)

UK -292419 -3452358 -4914527 -3452764 I(1)



34


Panel 1 Trace test



None 08119 20372650 7605409 00000

At most 1 07484 18618330 6950496 00000

At most 2 06943 17169350 6409570 00000

At most 3 06896 15925080 5945066 00000

At most 4 06813 14696730 5486505 00000

At most 5 06751 13496030 5038266 00000

At most 6 06619 12315570 4597583 00000

At most 7 06605 11176950 4172519 00000

At most 8 06570 10042670 3749076 00000

At most 9 06534 8919101 3220692 00000

At most 10 06439 7806611 2731889 00000

At most 11 06424 6722533 2282979 00001

At most 12 06365 5642802 1874701 00000

At most 13 06312 4580251 1505585 00000

At most 14 06183 3532980 1177082 00000

At most 15 05059 2521643 888038 00000

At most 16 04229 1781345 638761 00000

At most 17 03477 1204084 429153 00000

At most 18 03308 755525 258721 00000

At most 19 02723 333740 125180 00000



Max-Eigen Stat


None 08119 1754311 1262691 00000

At most 1 07484 1448984 1042928 00000

At most 2 06943 1244273 895584 00000

At most 3 06896 1228346 884120 00000

At most 4 06813 1200704 864224 00000

At most 5 06751 1180455 849650 00000

At most 6 06619 1138626 819543 00000

At most 7 06605 1134280 816415 00000

At most 8 06570 1123565 808703 00000

At most 9 06534 1112489 748375 00000

At most 10 06439 1084078 688121 00000

At most 11 06424 1079731 627522 00000

35

At most 12 06365 1062552 567052 00000

At most 13 06312 1047271 505999 00000

At most 14 06183 1011337 444972 00000

At most 15 05059 740298 383310 00000

At most 16 04229 577261 321183 00000

At most 17 03477 448558 258232 00001

At most 18 03308 421785 193870 00000

At most 19 02723 333740 125180 00000

Source Authors

36






0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Pe

rce

nta

ge (

5)

Horizon

0

10

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40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Pe

rce

nta

ge (

)

Horizon

37





USA 75340 31220 52535 24920 32451 80425 16142 58582

Brazil 70609 08813 89311 04341 118017 31421 34896 70440

Russia 77612 125327 110425 34878 37666 32531 20684 95616

India 37554 88615 28643 68745 14462 45156 27108 20011

China 72605 55905 65828 98491 44992 74646 19369 79720

South Africa 97203 36750 72784 35206 31078 59433 25869 68574

Australia 11614 44655 02851 08205 109096 02585 32873 15055

Canada 73007 73293 50845 17185 57174 54735 08255 60655

EU 84055 25762 66141 26268 48995 68512 12978 68320

Indonesia 19769 24314 01169 80320 18449 16285 14550 05139

Japan 85308 40028 55534 22141 62552 85835 16891 70244

Malaysia 56649 70935 37736 31557 26228 67378 19406 37956

UK 53469 16542 64573 110048 19054 107249 55380 45530

DR Congo 29744 215520 39112 71369 09432 26191 07574 32377

Egypt 43495 37493 140244 17884 31158 27479 80075 60913

Ghana 03332 39604 21476 261490 10461 04486 12166 24795

Morocco 26742 12945 28298 04647 232156 27901 47621 48632

Nigeria 30411 05806 22706 64205 14887 130388 42022 25243

Tanzania 03455 10693 03545 11170 24621 31812 501363 06036

Tunisia 48028 35778 46245 06928 57070 25551 04778 106163



Total from BRICS 258380 315410 366990 241662 246216 243188 127926 334361

Total from Asia 349497 405125 299335 336134 204349 321832 118008 308685



38




USA 84417 27346 64937 08671 58633 45316 50364 08786

Brazil 62986 17990 52082 67154 42216 23105 79339 53891

Russia 80149 22871 85737 59520 44582 03436 72180 08594

India 24108 88781 32734 41954 80329 59152 35292 31134

China 57369 67788 51214 97239 36961 03302 48212 15927

South Africa 96491 23300 70515 22174 37526 16513 58827 15241

Australia 29237 67747 29516 62979 69457 03181 43946 24635

Canada 68897 31125 55227 47717 82931 07959 61205 05466

EU 71382 41920 40932 09740 82114 44444 71835 16233

Indonesia 45443 03361 37592 03145 24308 04855 20374 05870

Japan 67811 27701 61483 42867 46307 37472 64150 53856

Malaysia 57080 08193 56191 27331 61632 42365 26281 25684

UK 79705 08899 57763 09308 18636 75911 39259 30355

DR Congo 09940 314128 04962 51581 29301 07936 32248 94814

Egypt 33338 15688 113752 57598 34201 18514 40609 16733

Ghana 14299 25910 45405 243033 14637 60390 36649 10144

Morocco 29828 91510 32439 50298 136523 28312 64231 34121

Nigeria 16423 06604 31183 17516 07315 390801 09295 68504

Tunisia 40701 34480 50979 63742 67218 35759 117458 38775

Tanzania 30396 74657 25357 16435 25175 91275 28247 441238



Total from BRICS 224613 220729 292282 288040 241613 105508 293849 124787

Total from Asia 331961 218695 324952 272055 294119 150583 266489 141065



39




USA 09188 00959 09065 00856

Brazil 08344 01108 08742 00260

Russia 08388 02094 08924 00929

India 09000 -01139 08413 -00254

China 09102 01438 08912 00402

South Africa 09028 00416 09035 00097

Australia 07105 -02842 08673 -00439

Canada 08991 00946 08986 01122

EU 09121 01077 08971 00713

Indonesia 07591 -03108 08369 -02587

Japan 08998 01361 08803 00883

Malaysia 09000 00528 08364 00472

UK 08870 00649 08808 -00493

DR Congo 07845 -00328 06859 -00974

Egypt 08598 -00230 08862 -01441

Ghana 07385 -03746 07570 -01304

Morocco 07678 -00723 08635 01011

Nigeria 08696 -01538 06092 -02776

Tanzania 04986 -03598 05588 -00770


40




USA 918838 1116203 197365 906516 1080837 174321

Brazil 834405 1048823 214418 874223 922305 48081

Russia 838838 1301518 462681 892421 1076102 183681

India 900031 715701 -184330 841338 842608 01270

China 910213 1216863 306650 891159 966746 75587

South Africa 902797 982282 79485 903509 923706 20197

Australia 710525 395694 -314831 867260 798447 -68813

Canada 899143 1089583 190440 898639 1131561 232923

EU 912144 1134632 222487 897115 1036992 139877

Indonesia 759059 405570 -353488 836906 492962 -343944

Japan 899771 1184811 285039 880287 1054533 174246

Malaysia 899995 1001143 101148 836384 922360 85975

UK 887018 1011048 124029 880782 799256 -81526

DR Congo 784480 738784 -45696 685872 576096 -109776

Egypt 859756 838059 -21696 886248 665117 -221131

Ghana 738510 364252 -374258 756967 607614 -149354

Morocco 767844 666083 -101761 863477 1066309 202831

Nigeria 869612 638121 -231491 609199 351031 -258168

Tanzania 498637 239716 -258921 558762 535112 -23650


19





























20
















equation (8)















21







7)



USA 09225 01146

Brazil 09120 -00219

Russia 09112 00455

India 09078 -00084

China 09089 01571



Canada 09162 00942

EU 09242 00508


Japan 09058 00983

Malaysia 08912 -00356

UK 08952 01750

DR Congo 07128 -01741

Egypt 09102 00250

Ghana 08784 -00938

Morocco 09060 -00343

Nigeria 08135 -01450

Tanzania 05483 -02800







22











USA 922486 1167212 244726

Brazil 911992 874640 -37352

Russia 911225 1000613 89388

India 907825 898242 -09583

China 908903 1248026 339122

South Africa 919256 1136053 216797

Australia 920363 648580 -271782

Canada 916215 1112171 195956

EU 924230 1029565 105335

Indonesia 870173 369507 -500665

Japan 905765 1109993 204227

Malaysia 891174 833400 -57774

UK 895223 1279940 384716

DR Congo 712762 501596 -211166

Egypt 910222 960466 50244

Ghana 878401 774361 -104040

Morocco 906003 846578 -59425

Nigeria 813482 682922 -130560

Tanzania 548338 329206 -219132




4


23

















transmitters















24









25

References











ndash 505 DOI 1023072109358






South Africa













Bank EuroSystem



httpsdoiorg101111j1468-0297200802208x

26






9780199338306





9780199683666





1023072938189


















27





101257000282803321946804











43 doi 101111apel12218






1765(97)00214-0











102(30) 10421 ndash 10426 doi 101073pnas0500298102

28


Panel 1 Total trade


Mean 84011 81358 88127 67001 77455 80301 85688 74184 72914 84264

Median 84236 79800 90033 67500 83329 75169 86593 68642 71163 83149

Maximum 97207 94582 95355 101668 98959 96559 96925 102321 97017 96790

Minimum 68070 59661 74991 21419 52033 66311 71997 45609 41361 65780

Std Dev 09103 09923 06307 25939 15215 10771 07832 18510 18889 08659

Skewness -02557 -03265 -08339 -01564 -02113 01983 -03892 02254 -01552 -00788

Kurtosis 18436 20982 24076 16568 16486 13023 17853 16793 16301 18843

Jarque-Bera 71942 55790 140960 85592 90220 136781 93660 87637 88786 57136

Probability 00274 00615 00009 00138 00110 00011 00093 00125 00118 00575

Sum 9073191 8786664 9517664 7236112 8365173 8672560 9254352 8011865 7874676 9100564

Sum Sq Dev 886614 1053555 425632 7199027 2477109 1241421 656302 3666218 3817577 802300

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 87236 83778 83738 76289 82244 86661 78667 79968 86786 85707

Median 87044 84389 82930 73778 83385 86057 79551 77917 88201 86262

Maximum 95578 94754 98656 93881 95886 96149 101364 94617 95788 95813

Minimum 77730 59370 71394 59040 66530 73517 55142 63446 74210 70590

Std Dev 05861 09711 08697 11261 10013 07122 14826 10113 06881 07874

Skewness -01509 -07693 00520 00961 -00788 -03648 00245 00168 -05261 -05221

Kurtosis 16540 25582 15010 14196 14106 19515 16529 15297 18919 20504

Jarque-Bera 85624 115304 101596 114054 114789 73429 81769 97338 105077 89641

Probability 00138 00031 00062 00033 00032 00254 00168 00077 00052 00113

Sum 9421434 9048058 9043667 8239173 8882388 9359360 8495988 8636512 9372902 9256322

Sum Sq Dev 367539 1009027 809327 1356855 1072816 542746 2351912 1094302 506657 663408

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

29

Panel 2 Exports


Mean 43295 41726 44997 33564 39203 39204 42884 37423 36712 41902

Median 43989 42513 46369 33563 40228 37215 43260 34893 36168 41063

Maximum 49267 47480 48047 50647 51078 48075 48591 52280 49347 48121

Minimum 35181 32658 38487 10999 28248 31282 35764 22685 20866 32299

Std Dev 03567 04627 02889 12951 07307 05704 03974 09473 09485 04404

Skewness -05126 -03390 -11139 -01593 01003 01444 -03788 02615 -01339 -00785

Kurtosis 24040 16695 28948 16237 17569 13333 18292 17687 15771 19101

Jarque-Bera 63277 100352 223840 89813 71350 128756 87513 80535 94336 54568

Probability 00423 00066 00000 00112 00282 00016 00126 00178 00089 00653

Sum 4675847 4506379 4859645 3624899 4233933 4234076 4631435 4041731 3964876 4525383

Sum Sq Dev 136178 229032 89333 1794823 571317 348181 168996 960184 962699 207557

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 42639 41893 42189 40448 42248 44177 39647 39949 43572 42808

Median 42484 42653 42154 38822 43018 44454 41144 39034 43987 42616

Maximum 47407 47004 48937 48585 47489 47584 52432 47544 47638 47884

Minimum 36895 30077 36326 33208 34602 38788 25067 31643 37575 35685

Std Dev 03435 04889 04158 05011 03967 02711 07820 04997 03222 03643

Skewness -00975 -08534 -00141 03327 -03128 -05993 -02009 -00408 -05455 -02672

Kurtosis 15123 25749 15233 15819 16434 21907 19619 15902 19928 19945

Jarque-Bera 101311 139237 98169 110416 100430 94126 55756 89743 99206 58349

Probability 00063 00009 00074 00040 00066 00090 00616 00113 00070 00541

Sum 4605043 4524443 4556463 4368366 4562831 4771111 4281869 4314453 4705765 4623307

Sum Sq Dev 126277 255735 184992 268627 168392 78665 654348 267198 111068 141975

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

30

Panel 3 Imports


Mean 40716 39632 43130 33437 38252 41097 42805 36761 36202 42363

Median 40293 38797 43425 33938 42632 38025 43333 33749 34995 42524

Maximum 48275 47789 47365 51059 47958 48484 48334 50553 48606 48670

Minimum 31854 27002 36458 10124 23431 34572 36232 22924 19763 33482

Std Dev 05623 05535 03511 13000 08121 05130 03861 09070 09426 04291

Skewness -01054 -02950 -05179 -01564 -04266 02822 -03998 01867 -01796 -00986

Kurtosis 16142 23579 19916 16996 17030 13341 17464 15966 16997 18396

Jarque-Bera 88414 34218 94030 80500 108455 139220 99495 94901 81891 62349

Probability 00120 01807 00091 00179 00044 00009 00069 00087 00167 00443

Sum 4397345 4280285 4658019 3611214 4131240 4438484 4622917 3970134 3909800 4575180

Sum Sq Dev 338298 327825 131914 1808338 705702 281581 159501 880160 950711 197015

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 44596 41885 41548 35841 39996 42484 39020 40019 43214 42898

Median 44561 41759 40821 35106 40211 41620 38407 38883 44214 44011

Maximum 48381 47750 49720 46132 49229 48587 49650 47288 48210 47980

Minimum 40342 29293 35068 24090 30390 34645 29905 31802 36600 34622

Std Dev 02461 04854 04568 06666 06219 04457 07157 05136 03670 04301

Skewness -02384 -06748 01142 00167 00316 -02192 02042 00811 -05114 -06862

Kurtosis 19290 25254 14961 15951 14596 18055 14998 14947 18138 20792

Jarque-Bera 61848 92090 104121 88865 106955 72860 108786 103152 110391 122905

Probability 00454 00100 00055 00118 00048 00262 00043 00058 00040 00021

Sum 4816391 4523614 4487204 3870807 4319557 4588249 4214119 4322059 4667138 4633015

Sum Sq Dev 64784 252086 223300 475453 413775 212507 548102 282235 144087 197896

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

31


Panel 1 Total Trade

Panel 2 Exports

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level Critical

value at 5

PP Test stat at

1st Diff

Critical value at 5


Australia -2087649 -3452358 -5511474 -3452764 I(1)

Brazil -151073 -3452358 -4815699 -3452764 I(1)

Canada -1688886 -3452358 -4919794 -3452764 I(1)

China -0761713 -3452358 -4666041 -3452764 I(1)

DRCongo -2701397 -3452358 -4969701 -3452764 I(1)

Egypt -1110372 -3452358 -4587926 -3452764 I(1)

EU -2479035 -3452358 -4796753 -3452764 I(1)

Ghana -1789434 -3452358 -4749838 -3452764 I(1)

India -0176913 -3452358 -5580811 -3452764 I(1)

Indonesia -1940294 -3452358 -7723706 -3452764 I(1)

Japan -27304 -3452358 -4666113 -3452764 I(1)

Malaysia -1798537 -3452358 -5140808 -3452764 I(1)

Morocco -3427262 -3452358 -5251978 -3452764 I(1)

Nigeria -1885798 -3452358 -6573952 -3452764 I(1)

Russia -2427019 -3452358 -4584745 -3452764 I(1)

Safrica -2459347 -3452358 -5061753 -3452764 I(1)

Tanzania -2080362 -3452358 -4639207 -3452764 I(1)

Tunisia -2521464 -3452358 -4922059 -3452764 I(1)

UK -292419 -3452358 -4914527 -3452764 I(1)



34


Panel 1 Trace test



None 08119 20372650 7605409 00000

At most 1 07484 18618330 6950496 00000

At most 2 06943 17169350 6409570 00000

At most 3 06896 15925080 5945066 00000

At most 4 06813 14696730 5486505 00000

At most 5 06751 13496030 5038266 00000

At most 6 06619 12315570 4597583 00000

At most 7 06605 11176950 4172519 00000

At most 8 06570 10042670 3749076 00000

At most 9 06534 8919101 3220692 00000

At most 10 06439 7806611 2731889 00000

At most 11 06424 6722533 2282979 00001

At most 12 06365 5642802 1874701 00000

At most 13 06312 4580251 1505585 00000

At most 14 06183 3532980 1177082 00000

At most 15 05059 2521643 888038 00000

At most 16 04229 1781345 638761 00000

At most 17 03477 1204084 429153 00000

At most 18 03308 755525 258721 00000

At most 19 02723 333740 125180 00000



Max-Eigen Stat


None 08119 1754311 1262691 00000

At most 1 07484 1448984 1042928 00000

At most 2 06943 1244273 895584 00000

At most 3 06896 1228346 884120 00000

At most 4 06813 1200704 864224 00000

At most 5 06751 1180455 849650 00000

At most 6 06619 1138626 819543 00000

At most 7 06605 1134280 816415 00000

At most 8 06570 1123565 808703 00000

At most 9 06534 1112489 748375 00000

At most 10 06439 1084078 688121 00000

At most 11 06424 1079731 627522 00000

35

At most 12 06365 1062552 567052 00000

At most 13 06312 1047271 505999 00000

At most 14 06183 1011337 444972 00000

At most 15 05059 740298 383310 00000

At most 16 04229 577261 321183 00000

At most 17 03477 448558 258232 00001

At most 18 03308 421785 193870 00000

At most 19 02723 333740 125180 00000

Source Authors

36






0

10

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30

40

50

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70

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100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Pe

rce

nta

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50

60

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80

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100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Pe

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nta

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)

Horizon

37





USA 75340 31220 52535 24920 32451 80425 16142 58582

Brazil 70609 08813 89311 04341 118017 31421 34896 70440

Russia 77612 125327 110425 34878 37666 32531 20684 95616

India 37554 88615 28643 68745 14462 45156 27108 20011

China 72605 55905 65828 98491 44992 74646 19369 79720

South Africa 97203 36750 72784 35206 31078 59433 25869 68574

Australia 11614 44655 02851 08205 109096 02585 32873 15055

Canada 73007 73293 50845 17185 57174 54735 08255 60655

EU 84055 25762 66141 26268 48995 68512 12978 68320

Indonesia 19769 24314 01169 80320 18449 16285 14550 05139

Japan 85308 40028 55534 22141 62552 85835 16891 70244

Malaysia 56649 70935 37736 31557 26228 67378 19406 37956

UK 53469 16542 64573 110048 19054 107249 55380 45530

DR Congo 29744 215520 39112 71369 09432 26191 07574 32377

Egypt 43495 37493 140244 17884 31158 27479 80075 60913

Ghana 03332 39604 21476 261490 10461 04486 12166 24795

Morocco 26742 12945 28298 04647 232156 27901 47621 48632

Nigeria 30411 05806 22706 64205 14887 130388 42022 25243

Tanzania 03455 10693 03545 11170 24621 31812 501363 06036

Tunisia 48028 35778 46245 06928 57070 25551 04778 106163



Total from BRICS 258380 315410 366990 241662 246216 243188 127926 334361

Total from Asia 349497 405125 299335 336134 204349 321832 118008 308685



38




USA 84417 27346 64937 08671 58633 45316 50364 08786

Brazil 62986 17990 52082 67154 42216 23105 79339 53891

Russia 80149 22871 85737 59520 44582 03436 72180 08594

India 24108 88781 32734 41954 80329 59152 35292 31134

China 57369 67788 51214 97239 36961 03302 48212 15927

South Africa 96491 23300 70515 22174 37526 16513 58827 15241

Australia 29237 67747 29516 62979 69457 03181 43946 24635

Canada 68897 31125 55227 47717 82931 07959 61205 05466

EU 71382 41920 40932 09740 82114 44444 71835 16233

Indonesia 45443 03361 37592 03145 24308 04855 20374 05870

Japan 67811 27701 61483 42867 46307 37472 64150 53856

Malaysia 57080 08193 56191 27331 61632 42365 26281 25684

UK 79705 08899 57763 09308 18636 75911 39259 30355

DR Congo 09940 314128 04962 51581 29301 07936 32248 94814

Egypt 33338 15688 113752 57598 34201 18514 40609 16733

Ghana 14299 25910 45405 243033 14637 60390 36649 10144

Morocco 29828 91510 32439 50298 136523 28312 64231 34121

Nigeria 16423 06604 31183 17516 07315 390801 09295 68504

Tunisia 40701 34480 50979 63742 67218 35759 117458 38775

Tanzania 30396 74657 25357 16435 25175 91275 28247 441238



Total from BRICS 224613 220729 292282 288040 241613 105508 293849 124787

Total from Asia 331961 218695 324952 272055 294119 150583 266489 141065



39




USA 09188 00959 09065 00856

Brazil 08344 01108 08742 00260

Russia 08388 02094 08924 00929

India 09000 -01139 08413 -00254

China 09102 01438 08912 00402

South Africa 09028 00416 09035 00097

Australia 07105 -02842 08673 -00439

Canada 08991 00946 08986 01122

EU 09121 01077 08971 00713

Indonesia 07591 -03108 08369 -02587

Japan 08998 01361 08803 00883

Malaysia 09000 00528 08364 00472

UK 08870 00649 08808 -00493

DR Congo 07845 -00328 06859 -00974

Egypt 08598 -00230 08862 -01441

Ghana 07385 -03746 07570 -01304

Morocco 07678 -00723 08635 01011

Nigeria 08696 -01538 06092 -02776

Tanzania 04986 -03598 05588 -00770


40




USA 918838 1116203 197365 906516 1080837 174321

Brazil 834405 1048823 214418 874223 922305 48081

Russia 838838 1301518 462681 892421 1076102 183681

India 900031 715701 -184330 841338 842608 01270

China 910213 1216863 306650 891159 966746 75587

South Africa 902797 982282 79485 903509 923706 20197

Australia 710525 395694 -314831 867260 798447 -68813

Canada 899143 1089583 190440 898639 1131561 232923

EU 912144 1134632 222487 897115 1036992 139877

Indonesia 759059 405570 -353488 836906 492962 -343944

Japan 899771 1184811 285039 880287 1054533 174246

Malaysia 899995 1001143 101148 836384 922360 85975

UK 887018 1011048 124029 880782 799256 -81526

DR Congo 784480 738784 -45696 685872 576096 -109776

Egypt 859756 838059 -21696 886248 665117 -221131

Ghana 738510 364252 -374258 756967 607614 -149354

Morocco 767844 666083 -101761 863477 1066309 202831

Nigeria 869612 638121 -231491 609199 351031 -258168

Tanzania 498637 239716 -258921 558762 535112 -23650


20
















equation (8)















21







7)



USA 09225 01146

Brazil 09120 -00219

Russia 09112 00455

India 09078 -00084

China 09089 01571



Canada 09162 00942

EU 09242 00508


Japan 09058 00983

Malaysia 08912 -00356

UK 08952 01750

DR Congo 07128 -01741

Egypt 09102 00250

Ghana 08784 -00938

Morocco 09060 -00343

Nigeria 08135 -01450

Tanzania 05483 -02800







22











USA 922486 1167212 244726

Brazil 911992 874640 -37352

Russia 911225 1000613 89388

India 907825 898242 -09583

China 908903 1248026 339122

South Africa 919256 1136053 216797

Australia 920363 648580 -271782

Canada 916215 1112171 195956

EU 924230 1029565 105335

Indonesia 870173 369507 -500665

Japan 905765 1109993 204227

Malaysia 891174 833400 -57774

UK 895223 1279940 384716

DR Congo 712762 501596 -211166

Egypt 910222 960466 50244

Ghana 878401 774361 -104040

Morocco 906003 846578 -59425

Nigeria 813482 682922 -130560

Tanzania 548338 329206 -219132




4


23

















transmitters















24









25

References











ndash 505 DOI 1023072109358






South Africa













Bank EuroSystem



httpsdoiorg101111j1468-0297200802208x

26






9780199338306





9780199683666





1023072938189


















27





101257000282803321946804











43 doi 101111apel12218






1765(97)00214-0











102(30) 10421 ndash 10426 doi 101073pnas0500298102

28


Panel 1 Total trade


Mean 84011 81358 88127 67001 77455 80301 85688 74184 72914 84264

Median 84236 79800 90033 67500 83329 75169 86593 68642 71163 83149

Maximum 97207 94582 95355 101668 98959 96559 96925 102321 97017 96790

Minimum 68070 59661 74991 21419 52033 66311 71997 45609 41361 65780

Std Dev 09103 09923 06307 25939 15215 10771 07832 18510 18889 08659

Skewness -02557 -03265 -08339 -01564 -02113 01983 -03892 02254 -01552 -00788

Kurtosis 18436 20982 24076 16568 16486 13023 17853 16793 16301 18843

Jarque-Bera 71942 55790 140960 85592 90220 136781 93660 87637 88786 57136

Probability 00274 00615 00009 00138 00110 00011 00093 00125 00118 00575

Sum 9073191 8786664 9517664 7236112 8365173 8672560 9254352 8011865 7874676 9100564

Sum Sq Dev 886614 1053555 425632 7199027 2477109 1241421 656302 3666218 3817577 802300

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 87236 83778 83738 76289 82244 86661 78667 79968 86786 85707

Median 87044 84389 82930 73778 83385 86057 79551 77917 88201 86262

Maximum 95578 94754 98656 93881 95886 96149 101364 94617 95788 95813

Minimum 77730 59370 71394 59040 66530 73517 55142 63446 74210 70590

Std Dev 05861 09711 08697 11261 10013 07122 14826 10113 06881 07874

Skewness -01509 -07693 00520 00961 -00788 -03648 00245 00168 -05261 -05221

Kurtosis 16540 25582 15010 14196 14106 19515 16529 15297 18919 20504

Jarque-Bera 85624 115304 101596 114054 114789 73429 81769 97338 105077 89641

Probability 00138 00031 00062 00033 00032 00254 00168 00077 00052 00113

Sum 9421434 9048058 9043667 8239173 8882388 9359360 8495988 8636512 9372902 9256322

Sum Sq Dev 367539 1009027 809327 1356855 1072816 542746 2351912 1094302 506657 663408

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

29

Panel 2 Exports


Mean 43295 41726 44997 33564 39203 39204 42884 37423 36712 41902

Median 43989 42513 46369 33563 40228 37215 43260 34893 36168 41063

Maximum 49267 47480 48047 50647 51078 48075 48591 52280 49347 48121

Minimum 35181 32658 38487 10999 28248 31282 35764 22685 20866 32299

Std Dev 03567 04627 02889 12951 07307 05704 03974 09473 09485 04404

Skewness -05126 -03390 -11139 -01593 01003 01444 -03788 02615 -01339 -00785

Kurtosis 24040 16695 28948 16237 17569 13333 18292 17687 15771 19101

Jarque-Bera 63277 100352 223840 89813 71350 128756 87513 80535 94336 54568

Probability 00423 00066 00000 00112 00282 00016 00126 00178 00089 00653

Sum 4675847 4506379 4859645 3624899 4233933 4234076 4631435 4041731 3964876 4525383

Sum Sq Dev 136178 229032 89333 1794823 571317 348181 168996 960184 962699 207557

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 42639 41893 42189 40448 42248 44177 39647 39949 43572 42808

Median 42484 42653 42154 38822 43018 44454 41144 39034 43987 42616

Maximum 47407 47004 48937 48585 47489 47584 52432 47544 47638 47884

Minimum 36895 30077 36326 33208 34602 38788 25067 31643 37575 35685

Std Dev 03435 04889 04158 05011 03967 02711 07820 04997 03222 03643

Skewness -00975 -08534 -00141 03327 -03128 -05993 -02009 -00408 -05455 -02672

Kurtosis 15123 25749 15233 15819 16434 21907 19619 15902 19928 19945

Jarque-Bera 101311 139237 98169 110416 100430 94126 55756 89743 99206 58349

Probability 00063 00009 00074 00040 00066 00090 00616 00113 00070 00541

Sum 4605043 4524443 4556463 4368366 4562831 4771111 4281869 4314453 4705765 4623307

Sum Sq Dev 126277 255735 184992 268627 168392 78665 654348 267198 111068 141975

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

30

Panel 3 Imports


Mean 40716 39632 43130 33437 38252 41097 42805 36761 36202 42363

Median 40293 38797 43425 33938 42632 38025 43333 33749 34995 42524

Maximum 48275 47789 47365 51059 47958 48484 48334 50553 48606 48670

Minimum 31854 27002 36458 10124 23431 34572 36232 22924 19763 33482

Std Dev 05623 05535 03511 13000 08121 05130 03861 09070 09426 04291

Skewness -01054 -02950 -05179 -01564 -04266 02822 -03998 01867 -01796 -00986

Kurtosis 16142 23579 19916 16996 17030 13341 17464 15966 16997 18396

Jarque-Bera 88414 34218 94030 80500 108455 139220 99495 94901 81891 62349

Probability 00120 01807 00091 00179 00044 00009 00069 00087 00167 00443

Sum 4397345 4280285 4658019 3611214 4131240 4438484 4622917 3970134 3909800 4575180

Sum Sq Dev 338298 327825 131914 1808338 705702 281581 159501 880160 950711 197015

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 44596 41885 41548 35841 39996 42484 39020 40019 43214 42898

Median 44561 41759 40821 35106 40211 41620 38407 38883 44214 44011

Maximum 48381 47750 49720 46132 49229 48587 49650 47288 48210 47980

Minimum 40342 29293 35068 24090 30390 34645 29905 31802 36600 34622

Std Dev 02461 04854 04568 06666 06219 04457 07157 05136 03670 04301

Skewness -02384 -06748 01142 00167 00316 -02192 02042 00811 -05114 -06862

Kurtosis 19290 25254 14961 15951 14596 18055 14998 14947 18138 20792

Jarque-Bera 61848 92090 104121 88865 106955 72860 108786 103152 110391 122905

Probability 00454 00100 00055 00118 00048 00262 00043 00058 00040 00021

Sum 4816391 4523614 4487204 3870807 4319557 4588249 4214119 4322059 4667138 4633015

Sum Sq Dev 64784 252086 223300 475453 413775 212507 548102 282235 144087 197896

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

31


Panel 1 Total Trade

Panel 2 Exports

0

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32

Panel 3 Imports


0

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61

99

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Q1

Log

of

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s






33



level Critical

value at 5

PP Test stat at

1st Diff

Critical value at 5


Australia -2087649 -3452358 -5511474 -3452764 I(1)

Brazil -151073 -3452358 -4815699 -3452764 I(1)

Canada -1688886 -3452358 -4919794 -3452764 I(1)

China -0761713 -3452358 -4666041 -3452764 I(1)

DRCongo -2701397 -3452358 -4969701 -3452764 I(1)

Egypt -1110372 -3452358 -4587926 -3452764 I(1)

EU -2479035 -3452358 -4796753 -3452764 I(1)

Ghana -1789434 -3452358 -4749838 -3452764 I(1)

India -0176913 -3452358 -5580811 -3452764 I(1)

Indonesia -1940294 -3452358 -7723706 -3452764 I(1)

Japan -27304 -3452358 -4666113 -3452764 I(1)

Malaysia -1798537 -3452358 -5140808 -3452764 I(1)

Morocco -3427262 -3452358 -5251978 -3452764 I(1)

Nigeria -1885798 -3452358 -6573952 -3452764 I(1)

Russia -2427019 -3452358 -4584745 -3452764 I(1)

Safrica -2459347 -3452358 -5061753 -3452764 I(1)

Tanzania -2080362 -3452358 -4639207 -3452764 I(1)

Tunisia -2521464 -3452358 -4922059 -3452764 I(1)

UK -292419 -3452358 -4914527 -3452764 I(1)



34


Panel 1 Trace test



None 08119 20372650 7605409 00000

At most 1 07484 18618330 6950496 00000

At most 2 06943 17169350 6409570 00000

At most 3 06896 15925080 5945066 00000

At most 4 06813 14696730 5486505 00000

At most 5 06751 13496030 5038266 00000

At most 6 06619 12315570 4597583 00000

At most 7 06605 11176950 4172519 00000

At most 8 06570 10042670 3749076 00000

At most 9 06534 8919101 3220692 00000

At most 10 06439 7806611 2731889 00000

At most 11 06424 6722533 2282979 00001

At most 12 06365 5642802 1874701 00000

At most 13 06312 4580251 1505585 00000

At most 14 06183 3532980 1177082 00000

At most 15 05059 2521643 888038 00000

At most 16 04229 1781345 638761 00000

At most 17 03477 1204084 429153 00000

At most 18 03308 755525 258721 00000

At most 19 02723 333740 125180 00000



Max-Eigen Stat


None 08119 1754311 1262691 00000

At most 1 07484 1448984 1042928 00000

At most 2 06943 1244273 895584 00000

At most 3 06896 1228346 884120 00000

At most 4 06813 1200704 864224 00000

At most 5 06751 1180455 849650 00000

At most 6 06619 1138626 819543 00000

At most 7 06605 1134280 816415 00000

At most 8 06570 1123565 808703 00000

At most 9 06534 1112489 748375 00000

At most 10 06439 1084078 688121 00000

At most 11 06424 1079731 627522 00000

35

At most 12 06365 1062552 567052 00000

At most 13 06312 1047271 505999 00000

At most 14 06183 1011337 444972 00000

At most 15 05059 740298 383310 00000

At most 16 04229 577261 321183 00000

At most 17 03477 448558 258232 00001

At most 18 03308 421785 193870 00000

At most 19 02723 333740 125180 00000

Source Authors

36






0

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30

40

50

60

70

80

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100

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rce

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50

60

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80

90

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

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37





USA 75340 31220 52535 24920 32451 80425 16142 58582

Brazil 70609 08813 89311 04341 118017 31421 34896 70440

Russia 77612 125327 110425 34878 37666 32531 20684 95616

India 37554 88615 28643 68745 14462 45156 27108 20011

China 72605 55905 65828 98491 44992 74646 19369 79720

South Africa 97203 36750 72784 35206 31078 59433 25869 68574

Australia 11614 44655 02851 08205 109096 02585 32873 15055

Canada 73007 73293 50845 17185 57174 54735 08255 60655

EU 84055 25762 66141 26268 48995 68512 12978 68320

Indonesia 19769 24314 01169 80320 18449 16285 14550 05139

Japan 85308 40028 55534 22141 62552 85835 16891 70244

Malaysia 56649 70935 37736 31557 26228 67378 19406 37956

UK 53469 16542 64573 110048 19054 107249 55380 45530

DR Congo 29744 215520 39112 71369 09432 26191 07574 32377

Egypt 43495 37493 140244 17884 31158 27479 80075 60913

Ghana 03332 39604 21476 261490 10461 04486 12166 24795

Morocco 26742 12945 28298 04647 232156 27901 47621 48632

Nigeria 30411 05806 22706 64205 14887 130388 42022 25243

Tanzania 03455 10693 03545 11170 24621 31812 501363 06036

Tunisia 48028 35778 46245 06928 57070 25551 04778 106163



Total from BRICS 258380 315410 366990 241662 246216 243188 127926 334361

Total from Asia 349497 405125 299335 336134 204349 321832 118008 308685



38




USA 84417 27346 64937 08671 58633 45316 50364 08786

Brazil 62986 17990 52082 67154 42216 23105 79339 53891

Russia 80149 22871 85737 59520 44582 03436 72180 08594

India 24108 88781 32734 41954 80329 59152 35292 31134

China 57369 67788 51214 97239 36961 03302 48212 15927

South Africa 96491 23300 70515 22174 37526 16513 58827 15241

Australia 29237 67747 29516 62979 69457 03181 43946 24635

Canada 68897 31125 55227 47717 82931 07959 61205 05466

EU 71382 41920 40932 09740 82114 44444 71835 16233

Indonesia 45443 03361 37592 03145 24308 04855 20374 05870

Japan 67811 27701 61483 42867 46307 37472 64150 53856

Malaysia 57080 08193 56191 27331 61632 42365 26281 25684

UK 79705 08899 57763 09308 18636 75911 39259 30355

DR Congo 09940 314128 04962 51581 29301 07936 32248 94814

Egypt 33338 15688 113752 57598 34201 18514 40609 16733

Ghana 14299 25910 45405 243033 14637 60390 36649 10144

Morocco 29828 91510 32439 50298 136523 28312 64231 34121

Nigeria 16423 06604 31183 17516 07315 390801 09295 68504

Tunisia 40701 34480 50979 63742 67218 35759 117458 38775

Tanzania 30396 74657 25357 16435 25175 91275 28247 441238



Total from BRICS 224613 220729 292282 288040 241613 105508 293849 124787

Total from Asia 331961 218695 324952 272055 294119 150583 266489 141065



39




USA 09188 00959 09065 00856

Brazil 08344 01108 08742 00260

Russia 08388 02094 08924 00929

India 09000 -01139 08413 -00254

China 09102 01438 08912 00402

South Africa 09028 00416 09035 00097

Australia 07105 -02842 08673 -00439

Canada 08991 00946 08986 01122

EU 09121 01077 08971 00713

Indonesia 07591 -03108 08369 -02587

Japan 08998 01361 08803 00883

Malaysia 09000 00528 08364 00472

UK 08870 00649 08808 -00493

DR Congo 07845 -00328 06859 -00974

Egypt 08598 -00230 08862 -01441

Ghana 07385 -03746 07570 -01304

Morocco 07678 -00723 08635 01011

Nigeria 08696 -01538 06092 -02776

Tanzania 04986 -03598 05588 -00770


40




USA 918838 1116203 197365 906516 1080837 174321

Brazil 834405 1048823 214418 874223 922305 48081

Russia 838838 1301518 462681 892421 1076102 183681

India 900031 715701 -184330 841338 842608 01270

China 910213 1216863 306650 891159 966746 75587

South Africa 902797 982282 79485 903509 923706 20197

Australia 710525 395694 -314831 867260 798447 -68813

Canada 899143 1089583 190440 898639 1131561 232923

EU 912144 1134632 222487 897115 1036992 139877

Indonesia 759059 405570 -353488 836906 492962 -343944

Japan 899771 1184811 285039 880287 1054533 174246

Malaysia 899995 1001143 101148 836384 922360 85975

UK 887018 1011048 124029 880782 799256 -81526

DR Congo 784480 738784 -45696 685872 576096 -109776

Egypt 859756 838059 -21696 886248 665117 -221131

Ghana 738510 364252 -374258 756967 607614 -149354

Morocco 767844 666083 -101761 863477 1066309 202831

Nigeria 869612 638121 -231491 609199 351031 -258168

Tanzania 498637 239716 -258921 558762 535112 -23650


21







7)



USA 09225 01146

Brazil 09120 -00219

Russia 09112 00455

India 09078 -00084

China 09089 01571



Canada 09162 00942

EU 09242 00508


Japan 09058 00983

Malaysia 08912 -00356

UK 08952 01750

DR Congo 07128 -01741

Egypt 09102 00250

Ghana 08784 -00938

Morocco 09060 -00343

Nigeria 08135 -01450

Tanzania 05483 -02800







22











USA 922486 1167212 244726

Brazil 911992 874640 -37352

Russia 911225 1000613 89388

India 907825 898242 -09583

China 908903 1248026 339122

South Africa 919256 1136053 216797

Australia 920363 648580 -271782

Canada 916215 1112171 195956

EU 924230 1029565 105335

Indonesia 870173 369507 -500665

Japan 905765 1109993 204227

Malaysia 891174 833400 -57774

UK 895223 1279940 384716

DR Congo 712762 501596 -211166

Egypt 910222 960466 50244

Ghana 878401 774361 -104040

Morocco 906003 846578 -59425

Nigeria 813482 682922 -130560

Tanzania 548338 329206 -219132




4


23

















transmitters















24









25

References











ndash 505 DOI 1023072109358






South Africa













Bank EuroSystem



httpsdoiorg101111j1468-0297200802208x

26






9780199338306





9780199683666





1023072938189


















27





101257000282803321946804











43 doi 101111apel12218






1765(97)00214-0











102(30) 10421 ndash 10426 doi 101073pnas0500298102

28


Panel 1 Total trade


Mean 84011 81358 88127 67001 77455 80301 85688 74184 72914 84264

Median 84236 79800 90033 67500 83329 75169 86593 68642 71163 83149

Maximum 97207 94582 95355 101668 98959 96559 96925 102321 97017 96790

Minimum 68070 59661 74991 21419 52033 66311 71997 45609 41361 65780

Std Dev 09103 09923 06307 25939 15215 10771 07832 18510 18889 08659

Skewness -02557 -03265 -08339 -01564 -02113 01983 -03892 02254 -01552 -00788

Kurtosis 18436 20982 24076 16568 16486 13023 17853 16793 16301 18843

Jarque-Bera 71942 55790 140960 85592 90220 136781 93660 87637 88786 57136

Probability 00274 00615 00009 00138 00110 00011 00093 00125 00118 00575

Sum 9073191 8786664 9517664 7236112 8365173 8672560 9254352 8011865 7874676 9100564

Sum Sq Dev 886614 1053555 425632 7199027 2477109 1241421 656302 3666218 3817577 802300

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 87236 83778 83738 76289 82244 86661 78667 79968 86786 85707

Median 87044 84389 82930 73778 83385 86057 79551 77917 88201 86262

Maximum 95578 94754 98656 93881 95886 96149 101364 94617 95788 95813

Minimum 77730 59370 71394 59040 66530 73517 55142 63446 74210 70590

Std Dev 05861 09711 08697 11261 10013 07122 14826 10113 06881 07874

Skewness -01509 -07693 00520 00961 -00788 -03648 00245 00168 -05261 -05221

Kurtosis 16540 25582 15010 14196 14106 19515 16529 15297 18919 20504

Jarque-Bera 85624 115304 101596 114054 114789 73429 81769 97338 105077 89641

Probability 00138 00031 00062 00033 00032 00254 00168 00077 00052 00113

Sum 9421434 9048058 9043667 8239173 8882388 9359360 8495988 8636512 9372902 9256322

Sum Sq Dev 367539 1009027 809327 1356855 1072816 542746 2351912 1094302 506657 663408

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

29

Panel 2 Exports


Mean 43295 41726 44997 33564 39203 39204 42884 37423 36712 41902

Median 43989 42513 46369 33563 40228 37215 43260 34893 36168 41063

Maximum 49267 47480 48047 50647 51078 48075 48591 52280 49347 48121

Minimum 35181 32658 38487 10999 28248 31282 35764 22685 20866 32299

Std Dev 03567 04627 02889 12951 07307 05704 03974 09473 09485 04404

Skewness -05126 -03390 -11139 -01593 01003 01444 -03788 02615 -01339 -00785

Kurtosis 24040 16695 28948 16237 17569 13333 18292 17687 15771 19101

Jarque-Bera 63277 100352 223840 89813 71350 128756 87513 80535 94336 54568

Probability 00423 00066 00000 00112 00282 00016 00126 00178 00089 00653

Sum 4675847 4506379 4859645 3624899 4233933 4234076 4631435 4041731 3964876 4525383

Sum Sq Dev 136178 229032 89333 1794823 571317 348181 168996 960184 962699 207557

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 42639 41893 42189 40448 42248 44177 39647 39949 43572 42808

Median 42484 42653 42154 38822 43018 44454 41144 39034 43987 42616

Maximum 47407 47004 48937 48585 47489 47584 52432 47544 47638 47884

Minimum 36895 30077 36326 33208 34602 38788 25067 31643 37575 35685

Std Dev 03435 04889 04158 05011 03967 02711 07820 04997 03222 03643

Skewness -00975 -08534 -00141 03327 -03128 -05993 -02009 -00408 -05455 -02672

Kurtosis 15123 25749 15233 15819 16434 21907 19619 15902 19928 19945

Jarque-Bera 101311 139237 98169 110416 100430 94126 55756 89743 99206 58349

Probability 00063 00009 00074 00040 00066 00090 00616 00113 00070 00541

Sum 4605043 4524443 4556463 4368366 4562831 4771111 4281869 4314453 4705765 4623307

Sum Sq Dev 126277 255735 184992 268627 168392 78665 654348 267198 111068 141975

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

30

Panel 3 Imports


Mean 40716 39632 43130 33437 38252 41097 42805 36761 36202 42363

Median 40293 38797 43425 33938 42632 38025 43333 33749 34995 42524

Maximum 48275 47789 47365 51059 47958 48484 48334 50553 48606 48670

Minimum 31854 27002 36458 10124 23431 34572 36232 22924 19763 33482

Std Dev 05623 05535 03511 13000 08121 05130 03861 09070 09426 04291

Skewness -01054 -02950 -05179 -01564 -04266 02822 -03998 01867 -01796 -00986

Kurtosis 16142 23579 19916 16996 17030 13341 17464 15966 16997 18396

Jarque-Bera 88414 34218 94030 80500 108455 139220 99495 94901 81891 62349

Probability 00120 01807 00091 00179 00044 00009 00069 00087 00167 00443

Sum 4397345 4280285 4658019 3611214 4131240 4438484 4622917 3970134 3909800 4575180

Sum Sq Dev 338298 327825 131914 1808338 705702 281581 159501 880160 950711 197015

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 44596 41885 41548 35841 39996 42484 39020 40019 43214 42898

Median 44561 41759 40821 35106 40211 41620 38407 38883 44214 44011

Maximum 48381 47750 49720 46132 49229 48587 49650 47288 48210 47980

Minimum 40342 29293 35068 24090 30390 34645 29905 31802 36600 34622

Std Dev 02461 04854 04568 06666 06219 04457 07157 05136 03670 04301

Skewness -02384 -06748 01142 00167 00316 -02192 02042 00811 -05114 -06862

Kurtosis 19290 25254 14961 15951 14596 18055 14998 14947 18138 20792

Jarque-Bera 61848 92090 104121 88865 106955 72860 108786 103152 110391 122905

Probability 00454 00100 00055 00118 00048 00262 00043 00058 00040 00021

Sum 4816391 4523614 4487204 3870807 4319557 4588249 4214119 4322059 4667138 4633015

Sum Sq Dev 64784 252086 223300 475453 413775 212507 548102 282235 144087 197896

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

31


Panel 1 Total Trade

Panel 2 Exports

0

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121

99

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32

Panel 3 Imports


0

1

2

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4

5

61

99

0Q

1

19

91

Q1

19

92

Q1

19

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Q1

19

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Q1

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Q1

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33



level Critical

value at 5

PP Test stat at

1st Diff

Critical value at 5


Australia -2087649 -3452358 -5511474 -3452764 I(1)

Brazil -151073 -3452358 -4815699 -3452764 I(1)

Canada -1688886 -3452358 -4919794 -3452764 I(1)

China -0761713 -3452358 -4666041 -3452764 I(1)

DRCongo -2701397 -3452358 -4969701 -3452764 I(1)

Egypt -1110372 -3452358 -4587926 -3452764 I(1)

EU -2479035 -3452358 -4796753 -3452764 I(1)

Ghana -1789434 -3452358 -4749838 -3452764 I(1)

India -0176913 -3452358 -5580811 -3452764 I(1)

Indonesia -1940294 -3452358 -7723706 -3452764 I(1)

Japan -27304 -3452358 -4666113 -3452764 I(1)

Malaysia -1798537 -3452358 -5140808 -3452764 I(1)

Morocco -3427262 -3452358 -5251978 -3452764 I(1)

Nigeria -1885798 -3452358 -6573952 -3452764 I(1)

Russia -2427019 -3452358 -4584745 -3452764 I(1)

Safrica -2459347 -3452358 -5061753 -3452764 I(1)

Tanzania -2080362 -3452358 -4639207 -3452764 I(1)

Tunisia -2521464 -3452358 -4922059 -3452764 I(1)

UK -292419 -3452358 -4914527 -3452764 I(1)



34


Panel 1 Trace test



None 08119 20372650 7605409 00000

At most 1 07484 18618330 6950496 00000

At most 2 06943 17169350 6409570 00000

At most 3 06896 15925080 5945066 00000

At most 4 06813 14696730 5486505 00000

At most 5 06751 13496030 5038266 00000

At most 6 06619 12315570 4597583 00000

At most 7 06605 11176950 4172519 00000

At most 8 06570 10042670 3749076 00000

At most 9 06534 8919101 3220692 00000

At most 10 06439 7806611 2731889 00000

At most 11 06424 6722533 2282979 00001

At most 12 06365 5642802 1874701 00000

At most 13 06312 4580251 1505585 00000

At most 14 06183 3532980 1177082 00000

At most 15 05059 2521643 888038 00000

At most 16 04229 1781345 638761 00000

At most 17 03477 1204084 429153 00000

At most 18 03308 755525 258721 00000

At most 19 02723 333740 125180 00000



Max-Eigen Stat


None 08119 1754311 1262691 00000

At most 1 07484 1448984 1042928 00000

At most 2 06943 1244273 895584 00000

At most 3 06896 1228346 884120 00000

At most 4 06813 1200704 864224 00000

At most 5 06751 1180455 849650 00000

At most 6 06619 1138626 819543 00000

At most 7 06605 1134280 816415 00000

At most 8 06570 1123565 808703 00000

At most 9 06534 1112489 748375 00000

At most 10 06439 1084078 688121 00000

At most 11 06424 1079731 627522 00000

35

At most 12 06365 1062552 567052 00000

At most 13 06312 1047271 505999 00000

At most 14 06183 1011337 444972 00000

At most 15 05059 740298 383310 00000

At most 16 04229 577261 321183 00000

At most 17 03477 448558 258232 00001

At most 18 03308 421785 193870 00000

At most 19 02723 333740 125180 00000

Source Authors

36






0

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rce

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

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37





USA 75340 31220 52535 24920 32451 80425 16142 58582

Brazil 70609 08813 89311 04341 118017 31421 34896 70440

Russia 77612 125327 110425 34878 37666 32531 20684 95616

India 37554 88615 28643 68745 14462 45156 27108 20011

China 72605 55905 65828 98491 44992 74646 19369 79720

South Africa 97203 36750 72784 35206 31078 59433 25869 68574

Australia 11614 44655 02851 08205 109096 02585 32873 15055

Canada 73007 73293 50845 17185 57174 54735 08255 60655

EU 84055 25762 66141 26268 48995 68512 12978 68320

Indonesia 19769 24314 01169 80320 18449 16285 14550 05139

Japan 85308 40028 55534 22141 62552 85835 16891 70244

Malaysia 56649 70935 37736 31557 26228 67378 19406 37956

UK 53469 16542 64573 110048 19054 107249 55380 45530

DR Congo 29744 215520 39112 71369 09432 26191 07574 32377

Egypt 43495 37493 140244 17884 31158 27479 80075 60913

Ghana 03332 39604 21476 261490 10461 04486 12166 24795

Morocco 26742 12945 28298 04647 232156 27901 47621 48632

Nigeria 30411 05806 22706 64205 14887 130388 42022 25243

Tanzania 03455 10693 03545 11170 24621 31812 501363 06036

Tunisia 48028 35778 46245 06928 57070 25551 04778 106163



Total from BRICS 258380 315410 366990 241662 246216 243188 127926 334361

Total from Asia 349497 405125 299335 336134 204349 321832 118008 308685



38




USA 84417 27346 64937 08671 58633 45316 50364 08786

Brazil 62986 17990 52082 67154 42216 23105 79339 53891

Russia 80149 22871 85737 59520 44582 03436 72180 08594

India 24108 88781 32734 41954 80329 59152 35292 31134

China 57369 67788 51214 97239 36961 03302 48212 15927

South Africa 96491 23300 70515 22174 37526 16513 58827 15241

Australia 29237 67747 29516 62979 69457 03181 43946 24635

Canada 68897 31125 55227 47717 82931 07959 61205 05466

EU 71382 41920 40932 09740 82114 44444 71835 16233

Indonesia 45443 03361 37592 03145 24308 04855 20374 05870

Japan 67811 27701 61483 42867 46307 37472 64150 53856

Malaysia 57080 08193 56191 27331 61632 42365 26281 25684

UK 79705 08899 57763 09308 18636 75911 39259 30355

DR Congo 09940 314128 04962 51581 29301 07936 32248 94814

Egypt 33338 15688 113752 57598 34201 18514 40609 16733

Ghana 14299 25910 45405 243033 14637 60390 36649 10144

Morocco 29828 91510 32439 50298 136523 28312 64231 34121

Nigeria 16423 06604 31183 17516 07315 390801 09295 68504

Tunisia 40701 34480 50979 63742 67218 35759 117458 38775

Tanzania 30396 74657 25357 16435 25175 91275 28247 441238



Total from BRICS 224613 220729 292282 288040 241613 105508 293849 124787

Total from Asia 331961 218695 324952 272055 294119 150583 266489 141065



39




USA 09188 00959 09065 00856

Brazil 08344 01108 08742 00260

Russia 08388 02094 08924 00929

India 09000 -01139 08413 -00254

China 09102 01438 08912 00402

South Africa 09028 00416 09035 00097

Australia 07105 -02842 08673 -00439

Canada 08991 00946 08986 01122

EU 09121 01077 08971 00713

Indonesia 07591 -03108 08369 -02587

Japan 08998 01361 08803 00883

Malaysia 09000 00528 08364 00472

UK 08870 00649 08808 -00493

DR Congo 07845 -00328 06859 -00974

Egypt 08598 -00230 08862 -01441

Ghana 07385 -03746 07570 -01304

Morocco 07678 -00723 08635 01011

Nigeria 08696 -01538 06092 -02776

Tanzania 04986 -03598 05588 -00770


40




USA 918838 1116203 197365 906516 1080837 174321

Brazil 834405 1048823 214418 874223 922305 48081

Russia 838838 1301518 462681 892421 1076102 183681

India 900031 715701 -184330 841338 842608 01270

China 910213 1216863 306650 891159 966746 75587

South Africa 902797 982282 79485 903509 923706 20197

Australia 710525 395694 -314831 867260 798447 -68813

Canada 899143 1089583 190440 898639 1131561 232923

EU 912144 1134632 222487 897115 1036992 139877

Indonesia 759059 405570 -353488 836906 492962 -343944

Japan 899771 1184811 285039 880287 1054533 174246

Malaysia 899995 1001143 101148 836384 922360 85975

UK 887018 1011048 124029 880782 799256 -81526

DR Congo 784480 738784 -45696 685872 576096 -109776

Egypt 859756 838059 -21696 886248 665117 -221131

Ghana 738510 364252 -374258 756967 607614 -149354

Morocco 767844 666083 -101761 863477 1066309 202831

Nigeria 869612 638121 -231491 609199 351031 -258168

Tanzania 498637 239716 -258921 558762 535112 -23650


22











USA 922486 1167212 244726

Brazil 911992 874640 -37352

Russia 911225 1000613 89388

India 907825 898242 -09583

China 908903 1248026 339122

South Africa 919256 1136053 216797

Australia 920363 648580 -271782

Canada 916215 1112171 195956

EU 924230 1029565 105335

Indonesia 870173 369507 -500665

Japan 905765 1109993 204227

Malaysia 891174 833400 -57774

UK 895223 1279940 384716

DR Congo 712762 501596 -211166

Egypt 910222 960466 50244

Ghana 878401 774361 -104040

Morocco 906003 846578 -59425

Nigeria 813482 682922 -130560

Tanzania 548338 329206 -219132




4


23

















transmitters















24









25

References











ndash 505 DOI 1023072109358






South Africa













Bank EuroSystem



httpsdoiorg101111j1468-0297200802208x

26






9780199338306





9780199683666





1023072938189


















27





101257000282803321946804











43 doi 101111apel12218






1765(97)00214-0











102(30) 10421 ndash 10426 doi 101073pnas0500298102

28


Panel 1 Total trade


Mean 84011 81358 88127 67001 77455 80301 85688 74184 72914 84264

Median 84236 79800 90033 67500 83329 75169 86593 68642 71163 83149

Maximum 97207 94582 95355 101668 98959 96559 96925 102321 97017 96790

Minimum 68070 59661 74991 21419 52033 66311 71997 45609 41361 65780

Std Dev 09103 09923 06307 25939 15215 10771 07832 18510 18889 08659

Skewness -02557 -03265 -08339 -01564 -02113 01983 -03892 02254 -01552 -00788

Kurtosis 18436 20982 24076 16568 16486 13023 17853 16793 16301 18843

Jarque-Bera 71942 55790 140960 85592 90220 136781 93660 87637 88786 57136

Probability 00274 00615 00009 00138 00110 00011 00093 00125 00118 00575

Sum 9073191 8786664 9517664 7236112 8365173 8672560 9254352 8011865 7874676 9100564

Sum Sq Dev 886614 1053555 425632 7199027 2477109 1241421 656302 3666218 3817577 802300

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 87236 83778 83738 76289 82244 86661 78667 79968 86786 85707

Median 87044 84389 82930 73778 83385 86057 79551 77917 88201 86262

Maximum 95578 94754 98656 93881 95886 96149 101364 94617 95788 95813

Minimum 77730 59370 71394 59040 66530 73517 55142 63446 74210 70590

Std Dev 05861 09711 08697 11261 10013 07122 14826 10113 06881 07874

Skewness -01509 -07693 00520 00961 -00788 -03648 00245 00168 -05261 -05221

Kurtosis 16540 25582 15010 14196 14106 19515 16529 15297 18919 20504

Jarque-Bera 85624 115304 101596 114054 114789 73429 81769 97338 105077 89641

Probability 00138 00031 00062 00033 00032 00254 00168 00077 00052 00113

Sum 9421434 9048058 9043667 8239173 8882388 9359360 8495988 8636512 9372902 9256322

Sum Sq Dev 367539 1009027 809327 1356855 1072816 542746 2351912 1094302 506657 663408

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

29

Panel 2 Exports


Mean 43295 41726 44997 33564 39203 39204 42884 37423 36712 41902

Median 43989 42513 46369 33563 40228 37215 43260 34893 36168 41063

Maximum 49267 47480 48047 50647 51078 48075 48591 52280 49347 48121

Minimum 35181 32658 38487 10999 28248 31282 35764 22685 20866 32299

Std Dev 03567 04627 02889 12951 07307 05704 03974 09473 09485 04404

Skewness -05126 -03390 -11139 -01593 01003 01444 -03788 02615 -01339 -00785

Kurtosis 24040 16695 28948 16237 17569 13333 18292 17687 15771 19101

Jarque-Bera 63277 100352 223840 89813 71350 128756 87513 80535 94336 54568

Probability 00423 00066 00000 00112 00282 00016 00126 00178 00089 00653

Sum 4675847 4506379 4859645 3624899 4233933 4234076 4631435 4041731 3964876 4525383

Sum Sq Dev 136178 229032 89333 1794823 571317 348181 168996 960184 962699 207557

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 42639 41893 42189 40448 42248 44177 39647 39949 43572 42808

Median 42484 42653 42154 38822 43018 44454 41144 39034 43987 42616

Maximum 47407 47004 48937 48585 47489 47584 52432 47544 47638 47884

Minimum 36895 30077 36326 33208 34602 38788 25067 31643 37575 35685

Std Dev 03435 04889 04158 05011 03967 02711 07820 04997 03222 03643

Skewness -00975 -08534 -00141 03327 -03128 -05993 -02009 -00408 -05455 -02672

Kurtosis 15123 25749 15233 15819 16434 21907 19619 15902 19928 19945

Jarque-Bera 101311 139237 98169 110416 100430 94126 55756 89743 99206 58349

Probability 00063 00009 00074 00040 00066 00090 00616 00113 00070 00541

Sum 4605043 4524443 4556463 4368366 4562831 4771111 4281869 4314453 4705765 4623307

Sum Sq Dev 126277 255735 184992 268627 168392 78665 654348 267198 111068 141975

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

30

Panel 3 Imports


Mean 40716 39632 43130 33437 38252 41097 42805 36761 36202 42363

Median 40293 38797 43425 33938 42632 38025 43333 33749 34995 42524

Maximum 48275 47789 47365 51059 47958 48484 48334 50553 48606 48670

Minimum 31854 27002 36458 10124 23431 34572 36232 22924 19763 33482

Std Dev 05623 05535 03511 13000 08121 05130 03861 09070 09426 04291

Skewness -01054 -02950 -05179 -01564 -04266 02822 -03998 01867 -01796 -00986

Kurtosis 16142 23579 19916 16996 17030 13341 17464 15966 16997 18396

Jarque-Bera 88414 34218 94030 80500 108455 139220 99495 94901 81891 62349

Probability 00120 01807 00091 00179 00044 00009 00069 00087 00167 00443

Sum 4397345 4280285 4658019 3611214 4131240 4438484 4622917 3970134 3909800 4575180

Sum Sq Dev 338298 327825 131914 1808338 705702 281581 159501 880160 950711 197015

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 44596 41885 41548 35841 39996 42484 39020 40019 43214 42898

Median 44561 41759 40821 35106 40211 41620 38407 38883 44214 44011

Maximum 48381 47750 49720 46132 49229 48587 49650 47288 48210 47980

Minimum 40342 29293 35068 24090 30390 34645 29905 31802 36600 34622

Std Dev 02461 04854 04568 06666 06219 04457 07157 05136 03670 04301

Skewness -02384 -06748 01142 00167 00316 -02192 02042 00811 -05114 -06862

Kurtosis 19290 25254 14961 15951 14596 18055 14998 14947 18138 20792

Jarque-Bera 61848 92090 104121 88865 106955 72860 108786 103152 110391 122905

Probability 00454 00100 00055 00118 00048 00262 00043 00058 00040 00021

Sum 4816391 4523614 4487204 3870807 4319557 4588249 4214119 4322059 4667138 4633015

Sum Sq Dev 64784 252086 223300 475453 413775 212507 548102 282235 144087 197896

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

31


Panel 1 Total Trade

Panel 2 Exports

0

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32

Panel 3 Imports


0

1

2

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5

61

99

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1

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91

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19

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Log

of

Imp

ort

s






33



level Critical

value at 5

PP Test stat at

1st Diff

Critical value at 5


Australia -2087649 -3452358 -5511474 -3452764 I(1)

Brazil -151073 -3452358 -4815699 -3452764 I(1)

Canada -1688886 -3452358 -4919794 -3452764 I(1)

China -0761713 -3452358 -4666041 -3452764 I(1)

DRCongo -2701397 -3452358 -4969701 -3452764 I(1)

Egypt -1110372 -3452358 -4587926 -3452764 I(1)

EU -2479035 -3452358 -4796753 -3452764 I(1)

Ghana -1789434 -3452358 -4749838 -3452764 I(1)

India -0176913 -3452358 -5580811 -3452764 I(1)

Indonesia -1940294 -3452358 -7723706 -3452764 I(1)

Japan -27304 -3452358 -4666113 -3452764 I(1)

Malaysia -1798537 -3452358 -5140808 -3452764 I(1)

Morocco -3427262 -3452358 -5251978 -3452764 I(1)

Nigeria -1885798 -3452358 -6573952 -3452764 I(1)

Russia -2427019 -3452358 -4584745 -3452764 I(1)

Safrica -2459347 -3452358 -5061753 -3452764 I(1)

Tanzania -2080362 -3452358 -4639207 -3452764 I(1)

Tunisia -2521464 -3452358 -4922059 -3452764 I(1)

UK -292419 -3452358 -4914527 -3452764 I(1)



34


Panel 1 Trace test



None 08119 20372650 7605409 00000

At most 1 07484 18618330 6950496 00000

At most 2 06943 17169350 6409570 00000

At most 3 06896 15925080 5945066 00000

At most 4 06813 14696730 5486505 00000

At most 5 06751 13496030 5038266 00000

At most 6 06619 12315570 4597583 00000

At most 7 06605 11176950 4172519 00000

At most 8 06570 10042670 3749076 00000

At most 9 06534 8919101 3220692 00000

At most 10 06439 7806611 2731889 00000

At most 11 06424 6722533 2282979 00001

At most 12 06365 5642802 1874701 00000

At most 13 06312 4580251 1505585 00000

At most 14 06183 3532980 1177082 00000

At most 15 05059 2521643 888038 00000

At most 16 04229 1781345 638761 00000

At most 17 03477 1204084 429153 00000

At most 18 03308 755525 258721 00000

At most 19 02723 333740 125180 00000



Max-Eigen Stat


None 08119 1754311 1262691 00000

At most 1 07484 1448984 1042928 00000

At most 2 06943 1244273 895584 00000

At most 3 06896 1228346 884120 00000

At most 4 06813 1200704 864224 00000

At most 5 06751 1180455 849650 00000

At most 6 06619 1138626 819543 00000

At most 7 06605 1134280 816415 00000

At most 8 06570 1123565 808703 00000

At most 9 06534 1112489 748375 00000

At most 10 06439 1084078 688121 00000

At most 11 06424 1079731 627522 00000

35

At most 12 06365 1062552 567052 00000

At most 13 06312 1047271 505999 00000

At most 14 06183 1011337 444972 00000

At most 15 05059 740298 383310 00000

At most 16 04229 577261 321183 00000

At most 17 03477 448558 258232 00001

At most 18 03308 421785 193870 00000

At most 19 02723 333740 125180 00000

Source Authors

36






0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Pe

rce

nta

ge (

5)

Horizon

0

10

20

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40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Pe

rce

nta

ge (

)

Horizon

37





USA 75340 31220 52535 24920 32451 80425 16142 58582

Brazil 70609 08813 89311 04341 118017 31421 34896 70440

Russia 77612 125327 110425 34878 37666 32531 20684 95616

India 37554 88615 28643 68745 14462 45156 27108 20011

China 72605 55905 65828 98491 44992 74646 19369 79720

South Africa 97203 36750 72784 35206 31078 59433 25869 68574

Australia 11614 44655 02851 08205 109096 02585 32873 15055

Canada 73007 73293 50845 17185 57174 54735 08255 60655

EU 84055 25762 66141 26268 48995 68512 12978 68320

Indonesia 19769 24314 01169 80320 18449 16285 14550 05139

Japan 85308 40028 55534 22141 62552 85835 16891 70244

Malaysia 56649 70935 37736 31557 26228 67378 19406 37956

UK 53469 16542 64573 110048 19054 107249 55380 45530

DR Congo 29744 215520 39112 71369 09432 26191 07574 32377

Egypt 43495 37493 140244 17884 31158 27479 80075 60913

Ghana 03332 39604 21476 261490 10461 04486 12166 24795

Morocco 26742 12945 28298 04647 232156 27901 47621 48632

Nigeria 30411 05806 22706 64205 14887 130388 42022 25243

Tanzania 03455 10693 03545 11170 24621 31812 501363 06036

Tunisia 48028 35778 46245 06928 57070 25551 04778 106163



Total from BRICS 258380 315410 366990 241662 246216 243188 127926 334361

Total from Asia 349497 405125 299335 336134 204349 321832 118008 308685



38




USA 84417 27346 64937 08671 58633 45316 50364 08786

Brazil 62986 17990 52082 67154 42216 23105 79339 53891

Russia 80149 22871 85737 59520 44582 03436 72180 08594

India 24108 88781 32734 41954 80329 59152 35292 31134

China 57369 67788 51214 97239 36961 03302 48212 15927

South Africa 96491 23300 70515 22174 37526 16513 58827 15241

Australia 29237 67747 29516 62979 69457 03181 43946 24635

Canada 68897 31125 55227 47717 82931 07959 61205 05466

EU 71382 41920 40932 09740 82114 44444 71835 16233

Indonesia 45443 03361 37592 03145 24308 04855 20374 05870

Japan 67811 27701 61483 42867 46307 37472 64150 53856

Malaysia 57080 08193 56191 27331 61632 42365 26281 25684

UK 79705 08899 57763 09308 18636 75911 39259 30355

DR Congo 09940 314128 04962 51581 29301 07936 32248 94814

Egypt 33338 15688 113752 57598 34201 18514 40609 16733

Ghana 14299 25910 45405 243033 14637 60390 36649 10144

Morocco 29828 91510 32439 50298 136523 28312 64231 34121

Nigeria 16423 06604 31183 17516 07315 390801 09295 68504

Tunisia 40701 34480 50979 63742 67218 35759 117458 38775

Tanzania 30396 74657 25357 16435 25175 91275 28247 441238



Total from BRICS 224613 220729 292282 288040 241613 105508 293849 124787

Total from Asia 331961 218695 324952 272055 294119 150583 266489 141065



39




USA 09188 00959 09065 00856

Brazil 08344 01108 08742 00260

Russia 08388 02094 08924 00929

India 09000 -01139 08413 -00254

China 09102 01438 08912 00402

South Africa 09028 00416 09035 00097

Australia 07105 -02842 08673 -00439

Canada 08991 00946 08986 01122

EU 09121 01077 08971 00713

Indonesia 07591 -03108 08369 -02587

Japan 08998 01361 08803 00883

Malaysia 09000 00528 08364 00472

UK 08870 00649 08808 -00493

DR Congo 07845 -00328 06859 -00974

Egypt 08598 -00230 08862 -01441

Ghana 07385 -03746 07570 -01304

Morocco 07678 -00723 08635 01011

Nigeria 08696 -01538 06092 -02776

Tanzania 04986 -03598 05588 -00770


40




USA 918838 1116203 197365 906516 1080837 174321

Brazil 834405 1048823 214418 874223 922305 48081

Russia 838838 1301518 462681 892421 1076102 183681

India 900031 715701 -184330 841338 842608 01270

China 910213 1216863 306650 891159 966746 75587

South Africa 902797 982282 79485 903509 923706 20197

Australia 710525 395694 -314831 867260 798447 -68813

Canada 899143 1089583 190440 898639 1131561 232923

EU 912144 1134632 222487 897115 1036992 139877

Indonesia 759059 405570 -353488 836906 492962 -343944

Japan 899771 1184811 285039 880287 1054533 174246

Malaysia 899995 1001143 101148 836384 922360 85975

UK 887018 1011048 124029 880782 799256 -81526

DR Congo 784480 738784 -45696 685872 576096 -109776

Egypt 859756 838059 -21696 886248 665117 -221131

Ghana 738510 364252 -374258 756967 607614 -149354

Morocco 767844 666083 -101761 863477 1066309 202831

Nigeria 869612 638121 -231491 609199 351031 -258168

Tanzania 498637 239716 -258921 558762 535112 -23650


23

















transmitters















24









25

References











ndash 505 DOI 1023072109358






South Africa













Bank EuroSystem



httpsdoiorg101111j1468-0297200802208x

26






9780199338306





9780199683666





1023072938189


















27





101257000282803321946804











43 doi 101111apel12218






1765(97)00214-0











102(30) 10421 ndash 10426 doi 101073pnas0500298102

28


Panel 1 Total trade


Mean 84011 81358 88127 67001 77455 80301 85688 74184 72914 84264

Median 84236 79800 90033 67500 83329 75169 86593 68642 71163 83149

Maximum 97207 94582 95355 101668 98959 96559 96925 102321 97017 96790

Minimum 68070 59661 74991 21419 52033 66311 71997 45609 41361 65780

Std Dev 09103 09923 06307 25939 15215 10771 07832 18510 18889 08659

Skewness -02557 -03265 -08339 -01564 -02113 01983 -03892 02254 -01552 -00788

Kurtosis 18436 20982 24076 16568 16486 13023 17853 16793 16301 18843

Jarque-Bera 71942 55790 140960 85592 90220 136781 93660 87637 88786 57136

Probability 00274 00615 00009 00138 00110 00011 00093 00125 00118 00575

Sum 9073191 8786664 9517664 7236112 8365173 8672560 9254352 8011865 7874676 9100564

Sum Sq Dev 886614 1053555 425632 7199027 2477109 1241421 656302 3666218 3817577 802300

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 87236 83778 83738 76289 82244 86661 78667 79968 86786 85707

Median 87044 84389 82930 73778 83385 86057 79551 77917 88201 86262

Maximum 95578 94754 98656 93881 95886 96149 101364 94617 95788 95813

Minimum 77730 59370 71394 59040 66530 73517 55142 63446 74210 70590

Std Dev 05861 09711 08697 11261 10013 07122 14826 10113 06881 07874

Skewness -01509 -07693 00520 00961 -00788 -03648 00245 00168 -05261 -05221

Kurtosis 16540 25582 15010 14196 14106 19515 16529 15297 18919 20504

Jarque-Bera 85624 115304 101596 114054 114789 73429 81769 97338 105077 89641

Probability 00138 00031 00062 00033 00032 00254 00168 00077 00052 00113

Sum 9421434 9048058 9043667 8239173 8882388 9359360 8495988 8636512 9372902 9256322

Sum Sq Dev 367539 1009027 809327 1356855 1072816 542746 2351912 1094302 506657 663408

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

29

Panel 2 Exports


Mean 43295 41726 44997 33564 39203 39204 42884 37423 36712 41902

Median 43989 42513 46369 33563 40228 37215 43260 34893 36168 41063

Maximum 49267 47480 48047 50647 51078 48075 48591 52280 49347 48121

Minimum 35181 32658 38487 10999 28248 31282 35764 22685 20866 32299

Std Dev 03567 04627 02889 12951 07307 05704 03974 09473 09485 04404

Skewness -05126 -03390 -11139 -01593 01003 01444 -03788 02615 -01339 -00785

Kurtosis 24040 16695 28948 16237 17569 13333 18292 17687 15771 19101

Jarque-Bera 63277 100352 223840 89813 71350 128756 87513 80535 94336 54568

Probability 00423 00066 00000 00112 00282 00016 00126 00178 00089 00653

Sum 4675847 4506379 4859645 3624899 4233933 4234076 4631435 4041731 3964876 4525383

Sum Sq Dev 136178 229032 89333 1794823 571317 348181 168996 960184 962699 207557

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 42639 41893 42189 40448 42248 44177 39647 39949 43572 42808

Median 42484 42653 42154 38822 43018 44454 41144 39034 43987 42616

Maximum 47407 47004 48937 48585 47489 47584 52432 47544 47638 47884

Minimum 36895 30077 36326 33208 34602 38788 25067 31643 37575 35685

Std Dev 03435 04889 04158 05011 03967 02711 07820 04997 03222 03643

Skewness -00975 -08534 -00141 03327 -03128 -05993 -02009 -00408 -05455 -02672

Kurtosis 15123 25749 15233 15819 16434 21907 19619 15902 19928 19945

Jarque-Bera 101311 139237 98169 110416 100430 94126 55756 89743 99206 58349

Probability 00063 00009 00074 00040 00066 00090 00616 00113 00070 00541

Sum 4605043 4524443 4556463 4368366 4562831 4771111 4281869 4314453 4705765 4623307

Sum Sq Dev 126277 255735 184992 268627 168392 78665 654348 267198 111068 141975

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

30

Panel 3 Imports


Mean 40716 39632 43130 33437 38252 41097 42805 36761 36202 42363

Median 40293 38797 43425 33938 42632 38025 43333 33749 34995 42524

Maximum 48275 47789 47365 51059 47958 48484 48334 50553 48606 48670

Minimum 31854 27002 36458 10124 23431 34572 36232 22924 19763 33482

Std Dev 05623 05535 03511 13000 08121 05130 03861 09070 09426 04291

Skewness -01054 -02950 -05179 -01564 -04266 02822 -03998 01867 -01796 -00986

Kurtosis 16142 23579 19916 16996 17030 13341 17464 15966 16997 18396

Jarque-Bera 88414 34218 94030 80500 108455 139220 99495 94901 81891 62349

Probability 00120 01807 00091 00179 00044 00009 00069 00087 00167 00443

Sum 4397345 4280285 4658019 3611214 4131240 4438484 4622917 3970134 3909800 4575180

Sum Sq Dev 338298 327825 131914 1808338 705702 281581 159501 880160 950711 197015

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 44596 41885 41548 35841 39996 42484 39020 40019 43214 42898

Median 44561 41759 40821 35106 40211 41620 38407 38883 44214 44011

Maximum 48381 47750 49720 46132 49229 48587 49650 47288 48210 47980

Minimum 40342 29293 35068 24090 30390 34645 29905 31802 36600 34622

Std Dev 02461 04854 04568 06666 06219 04457 07157 05136 03670 04301

Skewness -02384 -06748 01142 00167 00316 -02192 02042 00811 -05114 -06862

Kurtosis 19290 25254 14961 15951 14596 18055 14998 14947 18138 20792

Jarque-Bera 61848 92090 104121 88865 106955 72860 108786 103152 110391 122905

Probability 00454 00100 00055 00118 00048 00262 00043 00058 00040 00021

Sum 4816391 4523614 4487204 3870807 4319557 4588249 4214119 4322059 4667138 4633015

Sum Sq Dev 64784 252086 223300 475453 413775 212507 548102 282235 144087 197896

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

31


Panel 1 Total Trade

Panel 2 Exports

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level Critical

value at 5

PP Test stat at

1st Diff

Critical value at 5


Australia -2087649 -3452358 -5511474 -3452764 I(1)

Brazil -151073 -3452358 -4815699 -3452764 I(1)

Canada -1688886 -3452358 -4919794 -3452764 I(1)

China -0761713 -3452358 -4666041 -3452764 I(1)

DRCongo -2701397 -3452358 -4969701 -3452764 I(1)

Egypt -1110372 -3452358 -4587926 -3452764 I(1)

EU -2479035 -3452358 -4796753 -3452764 I(1)

Ghana -1789434 -3452358 -4749838 -3452764 I(1)

India -0176913 -3452358 -5580811 -3452764 I(1)

Indonesia -1940294 -3452358 -7723706 -3452764 I(1)

Japan -27304 -3452358 -4666113 -3452764 I(1)

Malaysia -1798537 -3452358 -5140808 -3452764 I(1)

Morocco -3427262 -3452358 -5251978 -3452764 I(1)

Nigeria -1885798 -3452358 -6573952 -3452764 I(1)

Russia -2427019 -3452358 -4584745 -3452764 I(1)

Safrica -2459347 -3452358 -5061753 -3452764 I(1)

Tanzania -2080362 -3452358 -4639207 -3452764 I(1)

Tunisia -2521464 -3452358 -4922059 -3452764 I(1)

UK -292419 -3452358 -4914527 -3452764 I(1)



34


Panel 1 Trace test



None 08119 20372650 7605409 00000

At most 1 07484 18618330 6950496 00000

At most 2 06943 17169350 6409570 00000

At most 3 06896 15925080 5945066 00000

At most 4 06813 14696730 5486505 00000

At most 5 06751 13496030 5038266 00000

At most 6 06619 12315570 4597583 00000

At most 7 06605 11176950 4172519 00000

At most 8 06570 10042670 3749076 00000

At most 9 06534 8919101 3220692 00000

At most 10 06439 7806611 2731889 00000

At most 11 06424 6722533 2282979 00001

At most 12 06365 5642802 1874701 00000

At most 13 06312 4580251 1505585 00000

At most 14 06183 3532980 1177082 00000

At most 15 05059 2521643 888038 00000

At most 16 04229 1781345 638761 00000

At most 17 03477 1204084 429153 00000

At most 18 03308 755525 258721 00000

At most 19 02723 333740 125180 00000



Max-Eigen Stat


None 08119 1754311 1262691 00000

At most 1 07484 1448984 1042928 00000

At most 2 06943 1244273 895584 00000

At most 3 06896 1228346 884120 00000

At most 4 06813 1200704 864224 00000

At most 5 06751 1180455 849650 00000

At most 6 06619 1138626 819543 00000

At most 7 06605 1134280 816415 00000

At most 8 06570 1123565 808703 00000

At most 9 06534 1112489 748375 00000

At most 10 06439 1084078 688121 00000

At most 11 06424 1079731 627522 00000

35

At most 12 06365 1062552 567052 00000

At most 13 06312 1047271 505999 00000

At most 14 06183 1011337 444972 00000

At most 15 05059 740298 383310 00000

At most 16 04229 577261 321183 00000

At most 17 03477 448558 258232 00001

At most 18 03308 421785 193870 00000

At most 19 02723 333740 125180 00000

Source Authors

36






0

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100

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rce

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37





USA 75340 31220 52535 24920 32451 80425 16142 58582

Brazil 70609 08813 89311 04341 118017 31421 34896 70440

Russia 77612 125327 110425 34878 37666 32531 20684 95616

India 37554 88615 28643 68745 14462 45156 27108 20011

China 72605 55905 65828 98491 44992 74646 19369 79720

South Africa 97203 36750 72784 35206 31078 59433 25869 68574

Australia 11614 44655 02851 08205 109096 02585 32873 15055

Canada 73007 73293 50845 17185 57174 54735 08255 60655

EU 84055 25762 66141 26268 48995 68512 12978 68320

Indonesia 19769 24314 01169 80320 18449 16285 14550 05139

Japan 85308 40028 55534 22141 62552 85835 16891 70244

Malaysia 56649 70935 37736 31557 26228 67378 19406 37956

UK 53469 16542 64573 110048 19054 107249 55380 45530

DR Congo 29744 215520 39112 71369 09432 26191 07574 32377

Egypt 43495 37493 140244 17884 31158 27479 80075 60913

Ghana 03332 39604 21476 261490 10461 04486 12166 24795

Morocco 26742 12945 28298 04647 232156 27901 47621 48632

Nigeria 30411 05806 22706 64205 14887 130388 42022 25243

Tanzania 03455 10693 03545 11170 24621 31812 501363 06036

Tunisia 48028 35778 46245 06928 57070 25551 04778 106163



Total from BRICS 258380 315410 366990 241662 246216 243188 127926 334361

Total from Asia 349497 405125 299335 336134 204349 321832 118008 308685



38




USA 84417 27346 64937 08671 58633 45316 50364 08786

Brazil 62986 17990 52082 67154 42216 23105 79339 53891

Russia 80149 22871 85737 59520 44582 03436 72180 08594

India 24108 88781 32734 41954 80329 59152 35292 31134

China 57369 67788 51214 97239 36961 03302 48212 15927

South Africa 96491 23300 70515 22174 37526 16513 58827 15241

Australia 29237 67747 29516 62979 69457 03181 43946 24635

Canada 68897 31125 55227 47717 82931 07959 61205 05466

EU 71382 41920 40932 09740 82114 44444 71835 16233

Indonesia 45443 03361 37592 03145 24308 04855 20374 05870

Japan 67811 27701 61483 42867 46307 37472 64150 53856

Malaysia 57080 08193 56191 27331 61632 42365 26281 25684

UK 79705 08899 57763 09308 18636 75911 39259 30355

DR Congo 09940 314128 04962 51581 29301 07936 32248 94814

Egypt 33338 15688 113752 57598 34201 18514 40609 16733

Ghana 14299 25910 45405 243033 14637 60390 36649 10144

Morocco 29828 91510 32439 50298 136523 28312 64231 34121

Nigeria 16423 06604 31183 17516 07315 390801 09295 68504

Tunisia 40701 34480 50979 63742 67218 35759 117458 38775

Tanzania 30396 74657 25357 16435 25175 91275 28247 441238



Total from BRICS 224613 220729 292282 288040 241613 105508 293849 124787

Total from Asia 331961 218695 324952 272055 294119 150583 266489 141065



39




USA 09188 00959 09065 00856

Brazil 08344 01108 08742 00260

Russia 08388 02094 08924 00929

India 09000 -01139 08413 -00254

China 09102 01438 08912 00402

South Africa 09028 00416 09035 00097

Australia 07105 -02842 08673 -00439

Canada 08991 00946 08986 01122

EU 09121 01077 08971 00713

Indonesia 07591 -03108 08369 -02587

Japan 08998 01361 08803 00883

Malaysia 09000 00528 08364 00472

UK 08870 00649 08808 -00493

DR Congo 07845 -00328 06859 -00974

Egypt 08598 -00230 08862 -01441

Ghana 07385 -03746 07570 -01304

Morocco 07678 -00723 08635 01011

Nigeria 08696 -01538 06092 -02776

Tanzania 04986 -03598 05588 -00770


40




USA 918838 1116203 197365 906516 1080837 174321

Brazil 834405 1048823 214418 874223 922305 48081

Russia 838838 1301518 462681 892421 1076102 183681

India 900031 715701 -184330 841338 842608 01270

China 910213 1216863 306650 891159 966746 75587

South Africa 902797 982282 79485 903509 923706 20197

Australia 710525 395694 -314831 867260 798447 -68813

Canada 899143 1089583 190440 898639 1131561 232923

EU 912144 1134632 222487 897115 1036992 139877

Indonesia 759059 405570 -353488 836906 492962 -343944

Japan 899771 1184811 285039 880287 1054533 174246

Malaysia 899995 1001143 101148 836384 922360 85975

UK 887018 1011048 124029 880782 799256 -81526

DR Congo 784480 738784 -45696 685872 576096 -109776

Egypt 859756 838059 -21696 886248 665117 -221131

Ghana 738510 364252 -374258 756967 607614 -149354

Morocco 767844 666083 -101761 863477 1066309 202831

Nigeria 869612 638121 -231491 609199 351031 -258168

Tanzania 498637 239716 -258921 558762 535112 -23650


24









25

References











ndash 505 DOI 1023072109358






South Africa













Bank EuroSystem



httpsdoiorg101111j1468-0297200802208x

26






9780199338306





9780199683666





1023072938189


















27





101257000282803321946804











43 doi 101111apel12218






1765(97)00214-0











102(30) 10421 ndash 10426 doi 101073pnas0500298102

28


Panel 1 Total trade


Mean 84011 81358 88127 67001 77455 80301 85688 74184 72914 84264

Median 84236 79800 90033 67500 83329 75169 86593 68642 71163 83149

Maximum 97207 94582 95355 101668 98959 96559 96925 102321 97017 96790

Minimum 68070 59661 74991 21419 52033 66311 71997 45609 41361 65780

Std Dev 09103 09923 06307 25939 15215 10771 07832 18510 18889 08659

Skewness -02557 -03265 -08339 -01564 -02113 01983 -03892 02254 -01552 -00788

Kurtosis 18436 20982 24076 16568 16486 13023 17853 16793 16301 18843

Jarque-Bera 71942 55790 140960 85592 90220 136781 93660 87637 88786 57136

Probability 00274 00615 00009 00138 00110 00011 00093 00125 00118 00575

Sum 9073191 8786664 9517664 7236112 8365173 8672560 9254352 8011865 7874676 9100564

Sum Sq Dev 886614 1053555 425632 7199027 2477109 1241421 656302 3666218 3817577 802300

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 87236 83778 83738 76289 82244 86661 78667 79968 86786 85707

Median 87044 84389 82930 73778 83385 86057 79551 77917 88201 86262

Maximum 95578 94754 98656 93881 95886 96149 101364 94617 95788 95813

Minimum 77730 59370 71394 59040 66530 73517 55142 63446 74210 70590

Std Dev 05861 09711 08697 11261 10013 07122 14826 10113 06881 07874

Skewness -01509 -07693 00520 00961 -00788 -03648 00245 00168 -05261 -05221

Kurtosis 16540 25582 15010 14196 14106 19515 16529 15297 18919 20504

Jarque-Bera 85624 115304 101596 114054 114789 73429 81769 97338 105077 89641

Probability 00138 00031 00062 00033 00032 00254 00168 00077 00052 00113

Sum 9421434 9048058 9043667 8239173 8882388 9359360 8495988 8636512 9372902 9256322

Sum Sq Dev 367539 1009027 809327 1356855 1072816 542746 2351912 1094302 506657 663408

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

29

Panel 2 Exports


Mean 43295 41726 44997 33564 39203 39204 42884 37423 36712 41902

Median 43989 42513 46369 33563 40228 37215 43260 34893 36168 41063

Maximum 49267 47480 48047 50647 51078 48075 48591 52280 49347 48121

Minimum 35181 32658 38487 10999 28248 31282 35764 22685 20866 32299

Std Dev 03567 04627 02889 12951 07307 05704 03974 09473 09485 04404

Skewness -05126 -03390 -11139 -01593 01003 01444 -03788 02615 -01339 -00785

Kurtosis 24040 16695 28948 16237 17569 13333 18292 17687 15771 19101

Jarque-Bera 63277 100352 223840 89813 71350 128756 87513 80535 94336 54568

Probability 00423 00066 00000 00112 00282 00016 00126 00178 00089 00653

Sum 4675847 4506379 4859645 3624899 4233933 4234076 4631435 4041731 3964876 4525383

Sum Sq Dev 136178 229032 89333 1794823 571317 348181 168996 960184 962699 207557

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 42639 41893 42189 40448 42248 44177 39647 39949 43572 42808

Median 42484 42653 42154 38822 43018 44454 41144 39034 43987 42616

Maximum 47407 47004 48937 48585 47489 47584 52432 47544 47638 47884

Minimum 36895 30077 36326 33208 34602 38788 25067 31643 37575 35685

Std Dev 03435 04889 04158 05011 03967 02711 07820 04997 03222 03643

Skewness -00975 -08534 -00141 03327 -03128 -05993 -02009 -00408 -05455 -02672

Kurtosis 15123 25749 15233 15819 16434 21907 19619 15902 19928 19945

Jarque-Bera 101311 139237 98169 110416 100430 94126 55756 89743 99206 58349

Probability 00063 00009 00074 00040 00066 00090 00616 00113 00070 00541

Sum 4605043 4524443 4556463 4368366 4562831 4771111 4281869 4314453 4705765 4623307

Sum Sq Dev 126277 255735 184992 268627 168392 78665 654348 267198 111068 141975

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

30

Panel 3 Imports


Mean 40716 39632 43130 33437 38252 41097 42805 36761 36202 42363

Median 40293 38797 43425 33938 42632 38025 43333 33749 34995 42524

Maximum 48275 47789 47365 51059 47958 48484 48334 50553 48606 48670

Minimum 31854 27002 36458 10124 23431 34572 36232 22924 19763 33482

Std Dev 05623 05535 03511 13000 08121 05130 03861 09070 09426 04291

Skewness -01054 -02950 -05179 -01564 -04266 02822 -03998 01867 -01796 -00986

Kurtosis 16142 23579 19916 16996 17030 13341 17464 15966 16997 18396

Jarque-Bera 88414 34218 94030 80500 108455 139220 99495 94901 81891 62349

Probability 00120 01807 00091 00179 00044 00009 00069 00087 00167 00443

Sum 4397345 4280285 4658019 3611214 4131240 4438484 4622917 3970134 3909800 4575180

Sum Sq Dev 338298 327825 131914 1808338 705702 281581 159501 880160 950711 197015

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 44596 41885 41548 35841 39996 42484 39020 40019 43214 42898

Median 44561 41759 40821 35106 40211 41620 38407 38883 44214 44011

Maximum 48381 47750 49720 46132 49229 48587 49650 47288 48210 47980

Minimum 40342 29293 35068 24090 30390 34645 29905 31802 36600 34622

Std Dev 02461 04854 04568 06666 06219 04457 07157 05136 03670 04301

Skewness -02384 -06748 01142 00167 00316 -02192 02042 00811 -05114 -06862

Kurtosis 19290 25254 14961 15951 14596 18055 14998 14947 18138 20792

Jarque-Bera 61848 92090 104121 88865 106955 72860 108786 103152 110391 122905

Probability 00454 00100 00055 00118 00048 00262 00043 00058 00040 00021

Sum 4816391 4523614 4487204 3870807 4319557 4588249 4214119 4322059 4667138 4633015

Sum Sq Dev 64784 252086 223300 475453 413775 212507 548102 282235 144087 197896

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

31


Panel 1 Total Trade

Panel 2 Exports

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level Critical

value at 5

PP Test stat at

1st Diff

Critical value at 5


Australia -2087649 -3452358 -5511474 -3452764 I(1)

Brazil -151073 -3452358 -4815699 -3452764 I(1)

Canada -1688886 -3452358 -4919794 -3452764 I(1)

China -0761713 -3452358 -4666041 -3452764 I(1)

DRCongo -2701397 -3452358 -4969701 -3452764 I(1)

Egypt -1110372 -3452358 -4587926 -3452764 I(1)

EU -2479035 -3452358 -4796753 -3452764 I(1)

Ghana -1789434 -3452358 -4749838 -3452764 I(1)

India -0176913 -3452358 -5580811 -3452764 I(1)

Indonesia -1940294 -3452358 -7723706 -3452764 I(1)

Japan -27304 -3452358 -4666113 -3452764 I(1)

Malaysia -1798537 -3452358 -5140808 -3452764 I(1)

Morocco -3427262 -3452358 -5251978 -3452764 I(1)

Nigeria -1885798 -3452358 -6573952 -3452764 I(1)

Russia -2427019 -3452358 -4584745 -3452764 I(1)

Safrica -2459347 -3452358 -5061753 -3452764 I(1)

Tanzania -2080362 -3452358 -4639207 -3452764 I(1)

Tunisia -2521464 -3452358 -4922059 -3452764 I(1)

UK -292419 -3452358 -4914527 -3452764 I(1)



34


Panel 1 Trace test



None 08119 20372650 7605409 00000

At most 1 07484 18618330 6950496 00000

At most 2 06943 17169350 6409570 00000

At most 3 06896 15925080 5945066 00000

At most 4 06813 14696730 5486505 00000

At most 5 06751 13496030 5038266 00000

At most 6 06619 12315570 4597583 00000

At most 7 06605 11176950 4172519 00000

At most 8 06570 10042670 3749076 00000

At most 9 06534 8919101 3220692 00000

At most 10 06439 7806611 2731889 00000

At most 11 06424 6722533 2282979 00001

At most 12 06365 5642802 1874701 00000

At most 13 06312 4580251 1505585 00000

At most 14 06183 3532980 1177082 00000

At most 15 05059 2521643 888038 00000

At most 16 04229 1781345 638761 00000

At most 17 03477 1204084 429153 00000

At most 18 03308 755525 258721 00000

At most 19 02723 333740 125180 00000



Max-Eigen Stat


None 08119 1754311 1262691 00000

At most 1 07484 1448984 1042928 00000

At most 2 06943 1244273 895584 00000

At most 3 06896 1228346 884120 00000

At most 4 06813 1200704 864224 00000

At most 5 06751 1180455 849650 00000

At most 6 06619 1138626 819543 00000

At most 7 06605 1134280 816415 00000

At most 8 06570 1123565 808703 00000

At most 9 06534 1112489 748375 00000

At most 10 06439 1084078 688121 00000

At most 11 06424 1079731 627522 00000

35

At most 12 06365 1062552 567052 00000

At most 13 06312 1047271 505999 00000

At most 14 06183 1011337 444972 00000

At most 15 05059 740298 383310 00000

At most 16 04229 577261 321183 00000

At most 17 03477 448558 258232 00001

At most 18 03308 421785 193870 00000

At most 19 02723 333740 125180 00000

Source Authors

36






0

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37





USA 75340 31220 52535 24920 32451 80425 16142 58582

Brazil 70609 08813 89311 04341 118017 31421 34896 70440

Russia 77612 125327 110425 34878 37666 32531 20684 95616

India 37554 88615 28643 68745 14462 45156 27108 20011

China 72605 55905 65828 98491 44992 74646 19369 79720

South Africa 97203 36750 72784 35206 31078 59433 25869 68574

Australia 11614 44655 02851 08205 109096 02585 32873 15055

Canada 73007 73293 50845 17185 57174 54735 08255 60655

EU 84055 25762 66141 26268 48995 68512 12978 68320

Indonesia 19769 24314 01169 80320 18449 16285 14550 05139

Japan 85308 40028 55534 22141 62552 85835 16891 70244

Malaysia 56649 70935 37736 31557 26228 67378 19406 37956

UK 53469 16542 64573 110048 19054 107249 55380 45530

DR Congo 29744 215520 39112 71369 09432 26191 07574 32377

Egypt 43495 37493 140244 17884 31158 27479 80075 60913

Ghana 03332 39604 21476 261490 10461 04486 12166 24795

Morocco 26742 12945 28298 04647 232156 27901 47621 48632

Nigeria 30411 05806 22706 64205 14887 130388 42022 25243

Tanzania 03455 10693 03545 11170 24621 31812 501363 06036

Tunisia 48028 35778 46245 06928 57070 25551 04778 106163



Total from BRICS 258380 315410 366990 241662 246216 243188 127926 334361

Total from Asia 349497 405125 299335 336134 204349 321832 118008 308685



38




USA 84417 27346 64937 08671 58633 45316 50364 08786

Brazil 62986 17990 52082 67154 42216 23105 79339 53891

Russia 80149 22871 85737 59520 44582 03436 72180 08594

India 24108 88781 32734 41954 80329 59152 35292 31134

China 57369 67788 51214 97239 36961 03302 48212 15927

South Africa 96491 23300 70515 22174 37526 16513 58827 15241

Australia 29237 67747 29516 62979 69457 03181 43946 24635

Canada 68897 31125 55227 47717 82931 07959 61205 05466

EU 71382 41920 40932 09740 82114 44444 71835 16233

Indonesia 45443 03361 37592 03145 24308 04855 20374 05870

Japan 67811 27701 61483 42867 46307 37472 64150 53856

Malaysia 57080 08193 56191 27331 61632 42365 26281 25684

UK 79705 08899 57763 09308 18636 75911 39259 30355

DR Congo 09940 314128 04962 51581 29301 07936 32248 94814

Egypt 33338 15688 113752 57598 34201 18514 40609 16733

Ghana 14299 25910 45405 243033 14637 60390 36649 10144

Morocco 29828 91510 32439 50298 136523 28312 64231 34121

Nigeria 16423 06604 31183 17516 07315 390801 09295 68504

Tunisia 40701 34480 50979 63742 67218 35759 117458 38775

Tanzania 30396 74657 25357 16435 25175 91275 28247 441238



Total from BRICS 224613 220729 292282 288040 241613 105508 293849 124787

Total from Asia 331961 218695 324952 272055 294119 150583 266489 141065



39




USA 09188 00959 09065 00856

Brazil 08344 01108 08742 00260

Russia 08388 02094 08924 00929

India 09000 -01139 08413 -00254

China 09102 01438 08912 00402

South Africa 09028 00416 09035 00097

Australia 07105 -02842 08673 -00439

Canada 08991 00946 08986 01122

EU 09121 01077 08971 00713

Indonesia 07591 -03108 08369 -02587

Japan 08998 01361 08803 00883

Malaysia 09000 00528 08364 00472

UK 08870 00649 08808 -00493

DR Congo 07845 -00328 06859 -00974

Egypt 08598 -00230 08862 -01441

Ghana 07385 -03746 07570 -01304

Morocco 07678 -00723 08635 01011

Nigeria 08696 -01538 06092 -02776

Tanzania 04986 -03598 05588 -00770


40




USA 918838 1116203 197365 906516 1080837 174321

Brazil 834405 1048823 214418 874223 922305 48081

Russia 838838 1301518 462681 892421 1076102 183681

India 900031 715701 -184330 841338 842608 01270

China 910213 1216863 306650 891159 966746 75587

South Africa 902797 982282 79485 903509 923706 20197

Australia 710525 395694 -314831 867260 798447 -68813

Canada 899143 1089583 190440 898639 1131561 232923

EU 912144 1134632 222487 897115 1036992 139877

Indonesia 759059 405570 -353488 836906 492962 -343944

Japan 899771 1184811 285039 880287 1054533 174246

Malaysia 899995 1001143 101148 836384 922360 85975

UK 887018 1011048 124029 880782 799256 -81526

DR Congo 784480 738784 -45696 685872 576096 -109776

Egypt 859756 838059 -21696 886248 665117 -221131

Ghana 738510 364252 -374258 756967 607614 -149354

Morocco 767844 666083 -101761 863477 1066309 202831

Nigeria 869612 638121 -231491 609199 351031 -258168

Tanzania 498637 239716 -258921 558762 535112 -23650


25

References











ndash 505 DOI 1023072109358






South Africa













Bank EuroSystem



httpsdoiorg101111j1468-0297200802208x

26






9780199338306





9780199683666





1023072938189


















27





101257000282803321946804











43 doi 101111apel12218






1765(97)00214-0











102(30) 10421 ndash 10426 doi 101073pnas0500298102

28


Panel 1 Total trade


Mean 84011 81358 88127 67001 77455 80301 85688 74184 72914 84264

Median 84236 79800 90033 67500 83329 75169 86593 68642 71163 83149

Maximum 97207 94582 95355 101668 98959 96559 96925 102321 97017 96790

Minimum 68070 59661 74991 21419 52033 66311 71997 45609 41361 65780

Std Dev 09103 09923 06307 25939 15215 10771 07832 18510 18889 08659

Skewness -02557 -03265 -08339 -01564 -02113 01983 -03892 02254 -01552 -00788

Kurtosis 18436 20982 24076 16568 16486 13023 17853 16793 16301 18843

Jarque-Bera 71942 55790 140960 85592 90220 136781 93660 87637 88786 57136

Probability 00274 00615 00009 00138 00110 00011 00093 00125 00118 00575

Sum 9073191 8786664 9517664 7236112 8365173 8672560 9254352 8011865 7874676 9100564

Sum Sq Dev 886614 1053555 425632 7199027 2477109 1241421 656302 3666218 3817577 802300

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 87236 83778 83738 76289 82244 86661 78667 79968 86786 85707

Median 87044 84389 82930 73778 83385 86057 79551 77917 88201 86262

Maximum 95578 94754 98656 93881 95886 96149 101364 94617 95788 95813

Minimum 77730 59370 71394 59040 66530 73517 55142 63446 74210 70590

Std Dev 05861 09711 08697 11261 10013 07122 14826 10113 06881 07874

Skewness -01509 -07693 00520 00961 -00788 -03648 00245 00168 -05261 -05221

Kurtosis 16540 25582 15010 14196 14106 19515 16529 15297 18919 20504

Jarque-Bera 85624 115304 101596 114054 114789 73429 81769 97338 105077 89641

Probability 00138 00031 00062 00033 00032 00254 00168 00077 00052 00113

Sum 9421434 9048058 9043667 8239173 8882388 9359360 8495988 8636512 9372902 9256322

Sum Sq Dev 367539 1009027 809327 1356855 1072816 542746 2351912 1094302 506657 663408

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

29

Panel 2 Exports


Mean 43295 41726 44997 33564 39203 39204 42884 37423 36712 41902

Median 43989 42513 46369 33563 40228 37215 43260 34893 36168 41063

Maximum 49267 47480 48047 50647 51078 48075 48591 52280 49347 48121

Minimum 35181 32658 38487 10999 28248 31282 35764 22685 20866 32299

Std Dev 03567 04627 02889 12951 07307 05704 03974 09473 09485 04404

Skewness -05126 -03390 -11139 -01593 01003 01444 -03788 02615 -01339 -00785

Kurtosis 24040 16695 28948 16237 17569 13333 18292 17687 15771 19101

Jarque-Bera 63277 100352 223840 89813 71350 128756 87513 80535 94336 54568

Probability 00423 00066 00000 00112 00282 00016 00126 00178 00089 00653

Sum 4675847 4506379 4859645 3624899 4233933 4234076 4631435 4041731 3964876 4525383

Sum Sq Dev 136178 229032 89333 1794823 571317 348181 168996 960184 962699 207557

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 42639 41893 42189 40448 42248 44177 39647 39949 43572 42808

Median 42484 42653 42154 38822 43018 44454 41144 39034 43987 42616

Maximum 47407 47004 48937 48585 47489 47584 52432 47544 47638 47884

Minimum 36895 30077 36326 33208 34602 38788 25067 31643 37575 35685

Std Dev 03435 04889 04158 05011 03967 02711 07820 04997 03222 03643

Skewness -00975 -08534 -00141 03327 -03128 -05993 -02009 -00408 -05455 -02672

Kurtosis 15123 25749 15233 15819 16434 21907 19619 15902 19928 19945

Jarque-Bera 101311 139237 98169 110416 100430 94126 55756 89743 99206 58349

Probability 00063 00009 00074 00040 00066 00090 00616 00113 00070 00541

Sum 4605043 4524443 4556463 4368366 4562831 4771111 4281869 4314453 4705765 4623307

Sum Sq Dev 126277 255735 184992 268627 168392 78665 654348 267198 111068 141975

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

30

Panel 3 Imports


Mean 40716 39632 43130 33437 38252 41097 42805 36761 36202 42363

Median 40293 38797 43425 33938 42632 38025 43333 33749 34995 42524

Maximum 48275 47789 47365 51059 47958 48484 48334 50553 48606 48670

Minimum 31854 27002 36458 10124 23431 34572 36232 22924 19763 33482

Std Dev 05623 05535 03511 13000 08121 05130 03861 09070 09426 04291

Skewness -01054 -02950 -05179 -01564 -04266 02822 -03998 01867 -01796 -00986

Kurtosis 16142 23579 19916 16996 17030 13341 17464 15966 16997 18396

Jarque-Bera 88414 34218 94030 80500 108455 139220 99495 94901 81891 62349

Probability 00120 01807 00091 00179 00044 00009 00069 00087 00167 00443

Sum 4397345 4280285 4658019 3611214 4131240 4438484 4622917 3970134 3909800 4575180

Sum Sq Dev 338298 327825 131914 1808338 705702 281581 159501 880160 950711 197015

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 44596 41885 41548 35841 39996 42484 39020 40019 43214 42898

Median 44561 41759 40821 35106 40211 41620 38407 38883 44214 44011

Maximum 48381 47750 49720 46132 49229 48587 49650 47288 48210 47980

Minimum 40342 29293 35068 24090 30390 34645 29905 31802 36600 34622

Std Dev 02461 04854 04568 06666 06219 04457 07157 05136 03670 04301

Skewness -02384 -06748 01142 00167 00316 -02192 02042 00811 -05114 -06862

Kurtosis 19290 25254 14961 15951 14596 18055 14998 14947 18138 20792

Jarque-Bera 61848 92090 104121 88865 106955 72860 108786 103152 110391 122905

Probability 00454 00100 00055 00118 00048 00262 00043 00058 00040 00021

Sum 4816391 4523614 4487204 3870807 4319557 4588249 4214119 4322059 4667138 4633015

Sum Sq Dev 64784 252086 223300 475453 413775 212507 548102 282235 144087 197896

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

31


Panel 1 Total Trade

Panel 2 Exports

0

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32

Panel 3 Imports


0

1

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5

61

99

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1

19

91

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19

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33



level Critical

value at 5

PP Test stat at

1st Diff

Critical value at 5


Australia -2087649 -3452358 -5511474 -3452764 I(1)

Brazil -151073 -3452358 -4815699 -3452764 I(1)

Canada -1688886 -3452358 -4919794 -3452764 I(1)

China -0761713 -3452358 -4666041 -3452764 I(1)

DRCongo -2701397 -3452358 -4969701 -3452764 I(1)

Egypt -1110372 -3452358 -4587926 -3452764 I(1)

EU -2479035 -3452358 -4796753 -3452764 I(1)

Ghana -1789434 -3452358 -4749838 -3452764 I(1)

India -0176913 -3452358 -5580811 -3452764 I(1)

Indonesia -1940294 -3452358 -7723706 -3452764 I(1)

Japan -27304 -3452358 -4666113 -3452764 I(1)

Malaysia -1798537 -3452358 -5140808 -3452764 I(1)

Morocco -3427262 -3452358 -5251978 -3452764 I(1)

Nigeria -1885798 -3452358 -6573952 -3452764 I(1)

Russia -2427019 -3452358 -4584745 -3452764 I(1)

Safrica -2459347 -3452358 -5061753 -3452764 I(1)

Tanzania -2080362 -3452358 -4639207 -3452764 I(1)

Tunisia -2521464 -3452358 -4922059 -3452764 I(1)

UK -292419 -3452358 -4914527 -3452764 I(1)



34


Panel 1 Trace test



None 08119 20372650 7605409 00000

At most 1 07484 18618330 6950496 00000

At most 2 06943 17169350 6409570 00000

At most 3 06896 15925080 5945066 00000

At most 4 06813 14696730 5486505 00000

At most 5 06751 13496030 5038266 00000

At most 6 06619 12315570 4597583 00000

At most 7 06605 11176950 4172519 00000

At most 8 06570 10042670 3749076 00000

At most 9 06534 8919101 3220692 00000

At most 10 06439 7806611 2731889 00000

At most 11 06424 6722533 2282979 00001

At most 12 06365 5642802 1874701 00000

At most 13 06312 4580251 1505585 00000

At most 14 06183 3532980 1177082 00000

At most 15 05059 2521643 888038 00000

At most 16 04229 1781345 638761 00000

At most 17 03477 1204084 429153 00000

At most 18 03308 755525 258721 00000

At most 19 02723 333740 125180 00000



Max-Eigen Stat


None 08119 1754311 1262691 00000

At most 1 07484 1448984 1042928 00000

At most 2 06943 1244273 895584 00000

At most 3 06896 1228346 884120 00000

At most 4 06813 1200704 864224 00000

At most 5 06751 1180455 849650 00000

At most 6 06619 1138626 819543 00000

At most 7 06605 1134280 816415 00000

At most 8 06570 1123565 808703 00000

At most 9 06534 1112489 748375 00000

At most 10 06439 1084078 688121 00000

At most 11 06424 1079731 627522 00000

35

At most 12 06365 1062552 567052 00000

At most 13 06312 1047271 505999 00000

At most 14 06183 1011337 444972 00000

At most 15 05059 740298 383310 00000

At most 16 04229 577261 321183 00000

At most 17 03477 448558 258232 00001

At most 18 03308 421785 193870 00000

At most 19 02723 333740 125180 00000

Source Authors

36






0

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USA 75340 31220 52535 24920 32451 80425 16142 58582

Brazil 70609 08813 89311 04341 118017 31421 34896 70440

Russia 77612 125327 110425 34878 37666 32531 20684 95616

India 37554 88615 28643 68745 14462 45156 27108 20011

China 72605 55905 65828 98491 44992 74646 19369 79720

South Africa 97203 36750 72784 35206 31078 59433 25869 68574

Australia 11614 44655 02851 08205 109096 02585 32873 15055

Canada 73007 73293 50845 17185 57174 54735 08255 60655

EU 84055 25762 66141 26268 48995 68512 12978 68320

Indonesia 19769 24314 01169 80320 18449 16285 14550 05139

Japan 85308 40028 55534 22141 62552 85835 16891 70244

Malaysia 56649 70935 37736 31557 26228 67378 19406 37956

UK 53469 16542 64573 110048 19054 107249 55380 45530

DR Congo 29744 215520 39112 71369 09432 26191 07574 32377

Egypt 43495 37493 140244 17884 31158 27479 80075 60913

Ghana 03332 39604 21476 261490 10461 04486 12166 24795

Morocco 26742 12945 28298 04647 232156 27901 47621 48632

Nigeria 30411 05806 22706 64205 14887 130388 42022 25243

Tanzania 03455 10693 03545 11170 24621 31812 501363 06036

Tunisia 48028 35778 46245 06928 57070 25551 04778 106163



Total from BRICS 258380 315410 366990 241662 246216 243188 127926 334361

Total from Asia 349497 405125 299335 336134 204349 321832 118008 308685



38




USA 84417 27346 64937 08671 58633 45316 50364 08786

Brazil 62986 17990 52082 67154 42216 23105 79339 53891

Russia 80149 22871 85737 59520 44582 03436 72180 08594

India 24108 88781 32734 41954 80329 59152 35292 31134

China 57369 67788 51214 97239 36961 03302 48212 15927

South Africa 96491 23300 70515 22174 37526 16513 58827 15241

Australia 29237 67747 29516 62979 69457 03181 43946 24635

Canada 68897 31125 55227 47717 82931 07959 61205 05466

EU 71382 41920 40932 09740 82114 44444 71835 16233

Indonesia 45443 03361 37592 03145 24308 04855 20374 05870

Japan 67811 27701 61483 42867 46307 37472 64150 53856

Malaysia 57080 08193 56191 27331 61632 42365 26281 25684

UK 79705 08899 57763 09308 18636 75911 39259 30355

DR Congo 09940 314128 04962 51581 29301 07936 32248 94814

Egypt 33338 15688 113752 57598 34201 18514 40609 16733

Ghana 14299 25910 45405 243033 14637 60390 36649 10144

Morocco 29828 91510 32439 50298 136523 28312 64231 34121

Nigeria 16423 06604 31183 17516 07315 390801 09295 68504

Tunisia 40701 34480 50979 63742 67218 35759 117458 38775

Tanzania 30396 74657 25357 16435 25175 91275 28247 441238



Total from BRICS 224613 220729 292282 288040 241613 105508 293849 124787

Total from Asia 331961 218695 324952 272055 294119 150583 266489 141065



39




USA 09188 00959 09065 00856

Brazil 08344 01108 08742 00260

Russia 08388 02094 08924 00929

India 09000 -01139 08413 -00254

China 09102 01438 08912 00402

South Africa 09028 00416 09035 00097

Australia 07105 -02842 08673 -00439

Canada 08991 00946 08986 01122

EU 09121 01077 08971 00713

Indonesia 07591 -03108 08369 -02587

Japan 08998 01361 08803 00883

Malaysia 09000 00528 08364 00472

UK 08870 00649 08808 -00493

DR Congo 07845 -00328 06859 -00974

Egypt 08598 -00230 08862 -01441

Ghana 07385 -03746 07570 -01304

Morocco 07678 -00723 08635 01011

Nigeria 08696 -01538 06092 -02776

Tanzania 04986 -03598 05588 -00770


40




USA 918838 1116203 197365 906516 1080837 174321

Brazil 834405 1048823 214418 874223 922305 48081

Russia 838838 1301518 462681 892421 1076102 183681

India 900031 715701 -184330 841338 842608 01270

China 910213 1216863 306650 891159 966746 75587

South Africa 902797 982282 79485 903509 923706 20197

Australia 710525 395694 -314831 867260 798447 -68813

Canada 899143 1089583 190440 898639 1131561 232923

EU 912144 1134632 222487 897115 1036992 139877

Indonesia 759059 405570 -353488 836906 492962 -343944

Japan 899771 1184811 285039 880287 1054533 174246

Malaysia 899995 1001143 101148 836384 922360 85975

UK 887018 1011048 124029 880782 799256 -81526

DR Congo 784480 738784 -45696 685872 576096 -109776

Egypt 859756 838059 -21696 886248 665117 -221131

Ghana 738510 364252 -374258 756967 607614 -149354

Morocco 767844 666083 -101761 863477 1066309 202831

Nigeria 869612 638121 -231491 609199 351031 -258168

Tanzania 498637 239716 -258921 558762 535112 -23650


26






9780199338306





9780199683666





1023072938189


















27





101257000282803321946804











43 doi 101111apel12218






1765(97)00214-0











102(30) 10421 ndash 10426 doi 101073pnas0500298102

28


Panel 1 Total trade


Mean 84011 81358 88127 67001 77455 80301 85688 74184 72914 84264

Median 84236 79800 90033 67500 83329 75169 86593 68642 71163 83149

Maximum 97207 94582 95355 101668 98959 96559 96925 102321 97017 96790

Minimum 68070 59661 74991 21419 52033 66311 71997 45609 41361 65780

Std Dev 09103 09923 06307 25939 15215 10771 07832 18510 18889 08659

Skewness -02557 -03265 -08339 -01564 -02113 01983 -03892 02254 -01552 -00788

Kurtosis 18436 20982 24076 16568 16486 13023 17853 16793 16301 18843

Jarque-Bera 71942 55790 140960 85592 90220 136781 93660 87637 88786 57136

Probability 00274 00615 00009 00138 00110 00011 00093 00125 00118 00575

Sum 9073191 8786664 9517664 7236112 8365173 8672560 9254352 8011865 7874676 9100564

Sum Sq Dev 886614 1053555 425632 7199027 2477109 1241421 656302 3666218 3817577 802300

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 87236 83778 83738 76289 82244 86661 78667 79968 86786 85707

Median 87044 84389 82930 73778 83385 86057 79551 77917 88201 86262

Maximum 95578 94754 98656 93881 95886 96149 101364 94617 95788 95813

Minimum 77730 59370 71394 59040 66530 73517 55142 63446 74210 70590

Std Dev 05861 09711 08697 11261 10013 07122 14826 10113 06881 07874

Skewness -01509 -07693 00520 00961 -00788 -03648 00245 00168 -05261 -05221

Kurtosis 16540 25582 15010 14196 14106 19515 16529 15297 18919 20504

Jarque-Bera 85624 115304 101596 114054 114789 73429 81769 97338 105077 89641

Probability 00138 00031 00062 00033 00032 00254 00168 00077 00052 00113

Sum 9421434 9048058 9043667 8239173 8882388 9359360 8495988 8636512 9372902 9256322

Sum Sq Dev 367539 1009027 809327 1356855 1072816 542746 2351912 1094302 506657 663408

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

29

Panel 2 Exports


Mean 43295 41726 44997 33564 39203 39204 42884 37423 36712 41902

Median 43989 42513 46369 33563 40228 37215 43260 34893 36168 41063

Maximum 49267 47480 48047 50647 51078 48075 48591 52280 49347 48121

Minimum 35181 32658 38487 10999 28248 31282 35764 22685 20866 32299

Std Dev 03567 04627 02889 12951 07307 05704 03974 09473 09485 04404

Skewness -05126 -03390 -11139 -01593 01003 01444 -03788 02615 -01339 -00785

Kurtosis 24040 16695 28948 16237 17569 13333 18292 17687 15771 19101

Jarque-Bera 63277 100352 223840 89813 71350 128756 87513 80535 94336 54568

Probability 00423 00066 00000 00112 00282 00016 00126 00178 00089 00653

Sum 4675847 4506379 4859645 3624899 4233933 4234076 4631435 4041731 3964876 4525383

Sum Sq Dev 136178 229032 89333 1794823 571317 348181 168996 960184 962699 207557

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 42639 41893 42189 40448 42248 44177 39647 39949 43572 42808

Median 42484 42653 42154 38822 43018 44454 41144 39034 43987 42616

Maximum 47407 47004 48937 48585 47489 47584 52432 47544 47638 47884

Minimum 36895 30077 36326 33208 34602 38788 25067 31643 37575 35685

Std Dev 03435 04889 04158 05011 03967 02711 07820 04997 03222 03643

Skewness -00975 -08534 -00141 03327 -03128 -05993 -02009 -00408 -05455 -02672

Kurtosis 15123 25749 15233 15819 16434 21907 19619 15902 19928 19945

Jarque-Bera 101311 139237 98169 110416 100430 94126 55756 89743 99206 58349

Probability 00063 00009 00074 00040 00066 00090 00616 00113 00070 00541

Sum 4605043 4524443 4556463 4368366 4562831 4771111 4281869 4314453 4705765 4623307

Sum Sq Dev 126277 255735 184992 268627 168392 78665 654348 267198 111068 141975

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

30

Panel 3 Imports


Mean 40716 39632 43130 33437 38252 41097 42805 36761 36202 42363

Median 40293 38797 43425 33938 42632 38025 43333 33749 34995 42524

Maximum 48275 47789 47365 51059 47958 48484 48334 50553 48606 48670

Minimum 31854 27002 36458 10124 23431 34572 36232 22924 19763 33482

Std Dev 05623 05535 03511 13000 08121 05130 03861 09070 09426 04291

Skewness -01054 -02950 -05179 -01564 -04266 02822 -03998 01867 -01796 -00986

Kurtosis 16142 23579 19916 16996 17030 13341 17464 15966 16997 18396

Jarque-Bera 88414 34218 94030 80500 108455 139220 99495 94901 81891 62349

Probability 00120 01807 00091 00179 00044 00009 00069 00087 00167 00443

Sum 4397345 4280285 4658019 3611214 4131240 4438484 4622917 3970134 3909800 4575180

Sum Sq Dev 338298 327825 131914 1808338 705702 281581 159501 880160 950711 197015

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 44596 41885 41548 35841 39996 42484 39020 40019 43214 42898

Median 44561 41759 40821 35106 40211 41620 38407 38883 44214 44011

Maximum 48381 47750 49720 46132 49229 48587 49650 47288 48210 47980

Minimum 40342 29293 35068 24090 30390 34645 29905 31802 36600 34622

Std Dev 02461 04854 04568 06666 06219 04457 07157 05136 03670 04301

Skewness -02384 -06748 01142 00167 00316 -02192 02042 00811 -05114 -06862

Kurtosis 19290 25254 14961 15951 14596 18055 14998 14947 18138 20792

Jarque-Bera 61848 92090 104121 88865 106955 72860 108786 103152 110391 122905

Probability 00454 00100 00055 00118 00048 00262 00043 00058 00040 00021

Sum 4816391 4523614 4487204 3870807 4319557 4588249 4214119 4322059 4667138 4633015

Sum Sq Dev 64784 252086 223300 475453 413775 212507 548102 282235 144087 197896

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

31


Panel 1 Total Trade

Panel 2 Exports

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Panel 3 Imports


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level Critical

value at 5

PP Test stat at

1st Diff

Critical value at 5


Australia -2087649 -3452358 -5511474 -3452764 I(1)

Brazil -151073 -3452358 -4815699 -3452764 I(1)

Canada -1688886 -3452358 -4919794 -3452764 I(1)

China -0761713 -3452358 -4666041 -3452764 I(1)

DRCongo -2701397 -3452358 -4969701 -3452764 I(1)

Egypt -1110372 -3452358 -4587926 -3452764 I(1)

EU -2479035 -3452358 -4796753 -3452764 I(1)

Ghana -1789434 -3452358 -4749838 -3452764 I(1)

India -0176913 -3452358 -5580811 -3452764 I(1)

Indonesia -1940294 -3452358 -7723706 -3452764 I(1)

Japan -27304 -3452358 -4666113 -3452764 I(1)

Malaysia -1798537 -3452358 -5140808 -3452764 I(1)

Morocco -3427262 -3452358 -5251978 -3452764 I(1)

Nigeria -1885798 -3452358 -6573952 -3452764 I(1)

Russia -2427019 -3452358 -4584745 -3452764 I(1)

Safrica -2459347 -3452358 -5061753 -3452764 I(1)

Tanzania -2080362 -3452358 -4639207 -3452764 I(1)

Tunisia -2521464 -3452358 -4922059 -3452764 I(1)

UK -292419 -3452358 -4914527 -3452764 I(1)



34


Panel 1 Trace test



None 08119 20372650 7605409 00000

At most 1 07484 18618330 6950496 00000

At most 2 06943 17169350 6409570 00000

At most 3 06896 15925080 5945066 00000

At most 4 06813 14696730 5486505 00000

At most 5 06751 13496030 5038266 00000

At most 6 06619 12315570 4597583 00000

At most 7 06605 11176950 4172519 00000

At most 8 06570 10042670 3749076 00000

At most 9 06534 8919101 3220692 00000

At most 10 06439 7806611 2731889 00000

At most 11 06424 6722533 2282979 00001

At most 12 06365 5642802 1874701 00000

At most 13 06312 4580251 1505585 00000

At most 14 06183 3532980 1177082 00000

At most 15 05059 2521643 888038 00000

At most 16 04229 1781345 638761 00000

At most 17 03477 1204084 429153 00000

At most 18 03308 755525 258721 00000

At most 19 02723 333740 125180 00000



Max-Eigen Stat


None 08119 1754311 1262691 00000

At most 1 07484 1448984 1042928 00000

At most 2 06943 1244273 895584 00000

At most 3 06896 1228346 884120 00000

At most 4 06813 1200704 864224 00000

At most 5 06751 1180455 849650 00000

At most 6 06619 1138626 819543 00000

At most 7 06605 1134280 816415 00000

At most 8 06570 1123565 808703 00000

At most 9 06534 1112489 748375 00000

At most 10 06439 1084078 688121 00000

At most 11 06424 1079731 627522 00000

35

At most 12 06365 1062552 567052 00000

At most 13 06312 1047271 505999 00000

At most 14 06183 1011337 444972 00000

At most 15 05059 740298 383310 00000

At most 16 04229 577261 321183 00000

At most 17 03477 448558 258232 00001

At most 18 03308 421785 193870 00000

At most 19 02723 333740 125180 00000

Source Authors

36






0

10

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30

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90

100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Pe

rce

nta

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5)

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50

60

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Pe

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)

Horizon

37





USA 75340 31220 52535 24920 32451 80425 16142 58582

Brazil 70609 08813 89311 04341 118017 31421 34896 70440

Russia 77612 125327 110425 34878 37666 32531 20684 95616

India 37554 88615 28643 68745 14462 45156 27108 20011

China 72605 55905 65828 98491 44992 74646 19369 79720

South Africa 97203 36750 72784 35206 31078 59433 25869 68574

Australia 11614 44655 02851 08205 109096 02585 32873 15055

Canada 73007 73293 50845 17185 57174 54735 08255 60655

EU 84055 25762 66141 26268 48995 68512 12978 68320

Indonesia 19769 24314 01169 80320 18449 16285 14550 05139

Japan 85308 40028 55534 22141 62552 85835 16891 70244

Malaysia 56649 70935 37736 31557 26228 67378 19406 37956

UK 53469 16542 64573 110048 19054 107249 55380 45530

DR Congo 29744 215520 39112 71369 09432 26191 07574 32377

Egypt 43495 37493 140244 17884 31158 27479 80075 60913

Ghana 03332 39604 21476 261490 10461 04486 12166 24795

Morocco 26742 12945 28298 04647 232156 27901 47621 48632

Nigeria 30411 05806 22706 64205 14887 130388 42022 25243

Tanzania 03455 10693 03545 11170 24621 31812 501363 06036

Tunisia 48028 35778 46245 06928 57070 25551 04778 106163



Total from BRICS 258380 315410 366990 241662 246216 243188 127926 334361

Total from Asia 349497 405125 299335 336134 204349 321832 118008 308685



38




USA 84417 27346 64937 08671 58633 45316 50364 08786

Brazil 62986 17990 52082 67154 42216 23105 79339 53891

Russia 80149 22871 85737 59520 44582 03436 72180 08594

India 24108 88781 32734 41954 80329 59152 35292 31134

China 57369 67788 51214 97239 36961 03302 48212 15927

South Africa 96491 23300 70515 22174 37526 16513 58827 15241

Australia 29237 67747 29516 62979 69457 03181 43946 24635

Canada 68897 31125 55227 47717 82931 07959 61205 05466

EU 71382 41920 40932 09740 82114 44444 71835 16233

Indonesia 45443 03361 37592 03145 24308 04855 20374 05870

Japan 67811 27701 61483 42867 46307 37472 64150 53856

Malaysia 57080 08193 56191 27331 61632 42365 26281 25684

UK 79705 08899 57763 09308 18636 75911 39259 30355

DR Congo 09940 314128 04962 51581 29301 07936 32248 94814

Egypt 33338 15688 113752 57598 34201 18514 40609 16733

Ghana 14299 25910 45405 243033 14637 60390 36649 10144

Morocco 29828 91510 32439 50298 136523 28312 64231 34121

Nigeria 16423 06604 31183 17516 07315 390801 09295 68504

Tunisia 40701 34480 50979 63742 67218 35759 117458 38775

Tanzania 30396 74657 25357 16435 25175 91275 28247 441238



Total from BRICS 224613 220729 292282 288040 241613 105508 293849 124787

Total from Asia 331961 218695 324952 272055 294119 150583 266489 141065



39




USA 09188 00959 09065 00856

Brazil 08344 01108 08742 00260

Russia 08388 02094 08924 00929

India 09000 -01139 08413 -00254

China 09102 01438 08912 00402

South Africa 09028 00416 09035 00097

Australia 07105 -02842 08673 -00439

Canada 08991 00946 08986 01122

EU 09121 01077 08971 00713

Indonesia 07591 -03108 08369 -02587

Japan 08998 01361 08803 00883

Malaysia 09000 00528 08364 00472

UK 08870 00649 08808 -00493

DR Congo 07845 -00328 06859 -00974

Egypt 08598 -00230 08862 -01441

Ghana 07385 -03746 07570 -01304

Morocco 07678 -00723 08635 01011

Nigeria 08696 -01538 06092 -02776

Tanzania 04986 -03598 05588 -00770


40




USA 918838 1116203 197365 906516 1080837 174321

Brazil 834405 1048823 214418 874223 922305 48081

Russia 838838 1301518 462681 892421 1076102 183681

India 900031 715701 -184330 841338 842608 01270

China 910213 1216863 306650 891159 966746 75587

South Africa 902797 982282 79485 903509 923706 20197

Australia 710525 395694 -314831 867260 798447 -68813

Canada 899143 1089583 190440 898639 1131561 232923

EU 912144 1134632 222487 897115 1036992 139877

Indonesia 759059 405570 -353488 836906 492962 -343944

Japan 899771 1184811 285039 880287 1054533 174246

Malaysia 899995 1001143 101148 836384 922360 85975

UK 887018 1011048 124029 880782 799256 -81526

DR Congo 784480 738784 -45696 685872 576096 -109776

Egypt 859756 838059 -21696 886248 665117 -221131

Ghana 738510 364252 -374258 756967 607614 -149354

Morocco 767844 666083 -101761 863477 1066309 202831

Nigeria 869612 638121 -231491 609199 351031 -258168

Tanzania 498637 239716 -258921 558762 535112 -23650


27





101257000282803321946804











43 doi 101111apel12218






1765(97)00214-0











102(30) 10421 ndash 10426 doi 101073pnas0500298102

28


Panel 1 Total trade


Mean 84011 81358 88127 67001 77455 80301 85688 74184 72914 84264

Median 84236 79800 90033 67500 83329 75169 86593 68642 71163 83149

Maximum 97207 94582 95355 101668 98959 96559 96925 102321 97017 96790

Minimum 68070 59661 74991 21419 52033 66311 71997 45609 41361 65780

Std Dev 09103 09923 06307 25939 15215 10771 07832 18510 18889 08659

Skewness -02557 -03265 -08339 -01564 -02113 01983 -03892 02254 -01552 -00788

Kurtosis 18436 20982 24076 16568 16486 13023 17853 16793 16301 18843

Jarque-Bera 71942 55790 140960 85592 90220 136781 93660 87637 88786 57136

Probability 00274 00615 00009 00138 00110 00011 00093 00125 00118 00575

Sum 9073191 8786664 9517664 7236112 8365173 8672560 9254352 8011865 7874676 9100564

Sum Sq Dev 886614 1053555 425632 7199027 2477109 1241421 656302 3666218 3817577 802300

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 87236 83778 83738 76289 82244 86661 78667 79968 86786 85707

Median 87044 84389 82930 73778 83385 86057 79551 77917 88201 86262

Maximum 95578 94754 98656 93881 95886 96149 101364 94617 95788 95813

Minimum 77730 59370 71394 59040 66530 73517 55142 63446 74210 70590

Std Dev 05861 09711 08697 11261 10013 07122 14826 10113 06881 07874

Skewness -01509 -07693 00520 00961 -00788 -03648 00245 00168 -05261 -05221

Kurtosis 16540 25582 15010 14196 14106 19515 16529 15297 18919 20504

Jarque-Bera 85624 115304 101596 114054 114789 73429 81769 97338 105077 89641

Probability 00138 00031 00062 00033 00032 00254 00168 00077 00052 00113

Sum 9421434 9048058 9043667 8239173 8882388 9359360 8495988 8636512 9372902 9256322

Sum Sq Dev 367539 1009027 809327 1356855 1072816 542746 2351912 1094302 506657 663408

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

29

Panel 2 Exports


Mean 43295 41726 44997 33564 39203 39204 42884 37423 36712 41902

Median 43989 42513 46369 33563 40228 37215 43260 34893 36168 41063

Maximum 49267 47480 48047 50647 51078 48075 48591 52280 49347 48121

Minimum 35181 32658 38487 10999 28248 31282 35764 22685 20866 32299

Std Dev 03567 04627 02889 12951 07307 05704 03974 09473 09485 04404

Skewness -05126 -03390 -11139 -01593 01003 01444 -03788 02615 -01339 -00785

Kurtosis 24040 16695 28948 16237 17569 13333 18292 17687 15771 19101

Jarque-Bera 63277 100352 223840 89813 71350 128756 87513 80535 94336 54568

Probability 00423 00066 00000 00112 00282 00016 00126 00178 00089 00653

Sum 4675847 4506379 4859645 3624899 4233933 4234076 4631435 4041731 3964876 4525383

Sum Sq Dev 136178 229032 89333 1794823 571317 348181 168996 960184 962699 207557

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 42639 41893 42189 40448 42248 44177 39647 39949 43572 42808

Median 42484 42653 42154 38822 43018 44454 41144 39034 43987 42616

Maximum 47407 47004 48937 48585 47489 47584 52432 47544 47638 47884

Minimum 36895 30077 36326 33208 34602 38788 25067 31643 37575 35685

Std Dev 03435 04889 04158 05011 03967 02711 07820 04997 03222 03643

Skewness -00975 -08534 -00141 03327 -03128 -05993 -02009 -00408 -05455 -02672

Kurtosis 15123 25749 15233 15819 16434 21907 19619 15902 19928 19945

Jarque-Bera 101311 139237 98169 110416 100430 94126 55756 89743 99206 58349

Probability 00063 00009 00074 00040 00066 00090 00616 00113 00070 00541

Sum 4605043 4524443 4556463 4368366 4562831 4771111 4281869 4314453 4705765 4623307

Sum Sq Dev 126277 255735 184992 268627 168392 78665 654348 267198 111068 141975

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

30

Panel 3 Imports


Mean 40716 39632 43130 33437 38252 41097 42805 36761 36202 42363

Median 40293 38797 43425 33938 42632 38025 43333 33749 34995 42524

Maximum 48275 47789 47365 51059 47958 48484 48334 50553 48606 48670

Minimum 31854 27002 36458 10124 23431 34572 36232 22924 19763 33482

Std Dev 05623 05535 03511 13000 08121 05130 03861 09070 09426 04291

Skewness -01054 -02950 -05179 -01564 -04266 02822 -03998 01867 -01796 -00986

Kurtosis 16142 23579 19916 16996 17030 13341 17464 15966 16997 18396

Jarque-Bera 88414 34218 94030 80500 108455 139220 99495 94901 81891 62349

Probability 00120 01807 00091 00179 00044 00009 00069 00087 00167 00443

Sum 4397345 4280285 4658019 3611214 4131240 4438484 4622917 3970134 3909800 4575180

Sum Sq Dev 338298 327825 131914 1808338 705702 281581 159501 880160 950711 197015

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 44596 41885 41548 35841 39996 42484 39020 40019 43214 42898

Median 44561 41759 40821 35106 40211 41620 38407 38883 44214 44011

Maximum 48381 47750 49720 46132 49229 48587 49650 47288 48210 47980

Minimum 40342 29293 35068 24090 30390 34645 29905 31802 36600 34622

Std Dev 02461 04854 04568 06666 06219 04457 07157 05136 03670 04301

Skewness -02384 -06748 01142 00167 00316 -02192 02042 00811 -05114 -06862

Kurtosis 19290 25254 14961 15951 14596 18055 14998 14947 18138 20792

Jarque-Bera 61848 92090 104121 88865 106955 72860 108786 103152 110391 122905

Probability 00454 00100 00055 00118 00048 00262 00043 00058 00040 00021

Sum 4816391 4523614 4487204 3870807 4319557 4588249 4214119 4322059 4667138 4633015

Sum Sq Dev 64784 252086 223300 475453 413775 212507 548102 282235 144087 197896

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

31


Panel 1 Total Trade

Panel 2 Exports

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Panel 3 Imports


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level Critical

value at 5

PP Test stat at

1st Diff

Critical value at 5


Australia -2087649 -3452358 -5511474 -3452764 I(1)

Brazil -151073 -3452358 -4815699 -3452764 I(1)

Canada -1688886 -3452358 -4919794 -3452764 I(1)

China -0761713 -3452358 -4666041 -3452764 I(1)

DRCongo -2701397 -3452358 -4969701 -3452764 I(1)

Egypt -1110372 -3452358 -4587926 -3452764 I(1)

EU -2479035 -3452358 -4796753 -3452764 I(1)

Ghana -1789434 -3452358 -4749838 -3452764 I(1)

India -0176913 -3452358 -5580811 -3452764 I(1)

Indonesia -1940294 -3452358 -7723706 -3452764 I(1)

Japan -27304 -3452358 -4666113 -3452764 I(1)

Malaysia -1798537 -3452358 -5140808 -3452764 I(1)

Morocco -3427262 -3452358 -5251978 -3452764 I(1)

Nigeria -1885798 -3452358 -6573952 -3452764 I(1)

Russia -2427019 -3452358 -4584745 -3452764 I(1)

Safrica -2459347 -3452358 -5061753 -3452764 I(1)

Tanzania -2080362 -3452358 -4639207 -3452764 I(1)

Tunisia -2521464 -3452358 -4922059 -3452764 I(1)

UK -292419 -3452358 -4914527 -3452764 I(1)



34


Panel 1 Trace test



None 08119 20372650 7605409 00000

At most 1 07484 18618330 6950496 00000

At most 2 06943 17169350 6409570 00000

At most 3 06896 15925080 5945066 00000

At most 4 06813 14696730 5486505 00000

At most 5 06751 13496030 5038266 00000

At most 6 06619 12315570 4597583 00000

At most 7 06605 11176950 4172519 00000

At most 8 06570 10042670 3749076 00000

At most 9 06534 8919101 3220692 00000

At most 10 06439 7806611 2731889 00000

At most 11 06424 6722533 2282979 00001

At most 12 06365 5642802 1874701 00000

At most 13 06312 4580251 1505585 00000

At most 14 06183 3532980 1177082 00000

At most 15 05059 2521643 888038 00000

At most 16 04229 1781345 638761 00000

At most 17 03477 1204084 429153 00000

At most 18 03308 755525 258721 00000

At most 19 02723 333740 125180 00000



Max-Eigen Stat


None 08119 1754311 1262691 00000

At most 1 07484 1448984 1042928 00000

At most 2 06943 1244273 895584 00000

At most 3 06896 1228346 884120 00000

At most 4 06813 1200704 864224 00000

At most 5 06751 1180455 849650 00000

At most 6 06619 1138626 819543 00000

At most 7 06605 1134280 816415 00000

At most 8 06570 1123565 808703 00000

At most 9 06534 1112489 748375 00000

At most 10 06439 1084078 688121 00000

At most 11 06424 1079731 627522 00000

35

At most 12 06365 1062552 567052 00000

At most 13 06312 1047271 505999 00000

At most 14 06183 1011337 444972 00000

At most 15 05059 740298 383310 00000

At most 16 04229 577261 321183 00000

At most 17 03477 448558 258232 00001

At most 18 03308 421785 193870 00000

At most 19 02723 333740 125180 00000

Source Authors

36






0

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USA 75340 31220 52535 24920 32451 80425 16142 58582

Brazil 70609 08813 89311 04341 118017 31421 34896 70440

Russia 77612 125327 110425 34878 37666 32531 20684 95616

India 37554 88615 28643 68745 14462 45156 27108 20011

China 72605 55905 65828 98491 44992 74646 19369 79720

South Africa 97203 36750 72784 35206 31078 59433 25869 68574

Australia 11614 44655 02851 08205 109096 02585 32873 15055

Canada 73007 73293 50845 17185 57174 54735 08255 60655

EU 84055 25762 66141 26268 48995 68512 12978 68320

Indonesia 19769 24314 01169 80320 18449 16285 14550 05139

Japan 85308 40028 55534 22141 62552 85835 16891 70244

Malaysia 56649 70935 37736 31557 26228 67378 19406 37956

UK 53469 16542 64573 110048 19054 107249 55380 45530

DR Congo 29744 215520 39112 71369 09432 26191 07574 32377

Egypt 43495 37493 140244 17884 31158 27479 80075 60913

Ghana 03332 39604 21476 261490 10461 04486 12166 24795

Morocco 26742 12945 28298 04647 232156 27901 47621 48632

Nigeria 30411 05806 22706 64205 14887 130388 42022 25243

Tanzania 03455 10693 03545 11170 24621 31812 501363 06036

Tunisia 48028 35778 46245 06928 57070 25551 04778 106163



Total from BRICS 258380 315410 366990 241662 246216 243188 127926 334361

Total from Asia 349497 405125 299335 336134 204349 321832 118008 308685



38




USA 84417 27346 64937 08671 58633 45316 50364 08786

Brazil 62986 17990 52082 67154 42216 23105 79339 53891

Russia 80149 22871 85737 59520 44582 03436 72180 08594

India 24108 88781 32734 41954 80329 59152 35292 31134

China 57369 67788 51214 97239 36961 03302 48212 15927

South Africa 96491 23300 70515 22174 37526 16513 58827 15241

Australia 29237 67747 29516 62979 69457 03181 43946 24635

Canada 68897 31125 55227 47717 82931 07959 61205 05466

EU 71382 41920 40932 09740 82114 44444 71835 16233

Indonesia 45443 03361 37592 03145 24308 04855 20374 05870

Japan 67811 27701 61483 42867 46307 37472 64150 53856

Malaysia 57080 08193 56191 27331 61632 42365 26281 25684

UK 79705 08899 57763 09308 18636 75911 39259 30355

DR Congo 09940 314128 04962 51581 29301 07936 32248 94814

Egypt 33338 15688 113752 57598 34201 18514 40609 16733

Ghana 14299 25910 45405 243033 14637 60390 36649 10144

Morocco 29828 91510 32439 50298 136523 28312 64231 34121

Nigeria 16423 06604 31183 17516 07315 390801 09295 68504

Tunisia 40701 34480 50979 63742 67218 35759 117458 38775

Tanzania 30396 74657 25357 16435 25175 91275 28247 441238



Total from BRICS 224613 220729 292282 288040 241613 105508 293849 124787

Total from Asia 331961 218695 324952 272055 294119 150583 266489 141065



39




USA 09188 00959 09065 00856

Brazil 08344 01108 08742 00260

Russia 08388 02094 08924 00929

India 09000 -01139 08413 -00254

China 09102 01438 08912 00402

South Africa 09028 00416 09035 00097

Australia 07105 -02842 08673 -00439

Canada 08991 00946 08986 01122

EU 09121 01077 08971 00713

Indonesia 07591 -03108 08369 -02587

Japan 08998 01361 08803 00883

Malaysia 09000 00528 08364 00472

UK 08870 00649 08808 -00493

DR Congo 07845 -00328 06859 -00974

Egypt 08598 -00230 08862 -01441

Ghana 07385 -03746 07570 -01304

Morocco 07678 -00723 08635 01011

Nigeria 08696 -01538 06092 -02776

Tanzania 04986 -03598 05588 -00770


40




USA 918838 1116203 197365 906516 1080837 174321

Brazil 834405 1048823 214418 874223 922305 48081

Russia 838838 1301518 462681 892421 1076102 183681

India 900031 715701 -184330 841338 842608 01270

China 910213 1216863 306650 891159 966746 75587

South Africa 902797 982282 79485 903509 923706 20197

Australia 710525 395694 -314831 867260 798447 -68813

Canada 899143 1089583 190440 898639 1131561 232923

EU 912144 1134632 222487 897115 1036992 139877

Indonesia 759059 405570 -353488 836906 492962 -343944

Japan 899771 1184811 285039 880287 1054533 174246

Malaysia 899995 1001143 101148 836384 922360 85975

UK 887018 1011048 124029 880782 799256 -81526

DR Congo 784480 738784 -45696 685872 576096 -109776

Egypt 859756 838059 -21696 886248 665117 -221131

Ghana 738510 364252 -374258 756967 607614 -149354

Morocco 767844 666083 -101761 863477 1066309 202831

Nigeria 869612 638121 -231491 609199 351031 -258168

Tanzania 498637 239716 -258921 558762 535112 -23650


28


Panel 1 Total trade


Mean 84011 81358 88127 67001 77455 80301 85688 74184 72914 84264

Median 84236 79800 90033 67500 83329 75169 86593 68642 71163 83149

Maximum 97207 94582 95355 101668 98959 96559 96925 102321 97017 96790

Minimum 68070 59661 74991 21419 52033 66311 71997 45609 41361 65780

Std Dev 09103 09923 06307 25939 15215 10771 07832 18510 18889 08659

Skewness -02557 -03265 -08339 -01564 -02113 01983 -03892 02254 -01552 -00788

Kurtosis 18436 20982 24076 16568 16486 13023 17853 16793 16301 18843

Jarque-Bera 71942 55790 140960 85592 90220 136781 93660 87637 88786 57136

Probability 00274 00615 00009 00138 00110 00011 00093 00125 00118 00575

Sum 9073191 8786664 9517664 7236112 8365173 8672560 9254352 8011865 7874676 9100564

Sum Sq Dev 886614 1053555 425632 7199027 2477109 1241421 656302 3666218 3817577 802300

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 87236 83778 83738 76289 82244 86661 78667 79968 86786 85707

Median 87044 84389 82930 73778 83385 86057 79551 77917 88201 86262

Maximum 95578 94754 98656 93881 95886 96149 101364 94617 95788 95813

Minimum 77730 59370 71394 59040 66530 73517 55142 63446 74210 70590

Std Dev 05861 09711 08697 11261 10013 07122 14826 10113 06881 07874

Skewness -01509 -07693 00520 00961 -00788 -03648 00245 00168 -05261 -05221

Kurtosis 16540 25582 15010 14196 14106 19515 16529 15297 18919 20504

Jarque-Bera 85624 115304 101596 114054 114789 73429 81769 97338 105077 89641

Probability 00138 00031 00062 00033 00032 00254 00168 00077 00052 00113

Sum 9421434 9048058 9043667 8239173 8882388 9359360 8495988 8636512 9372902 9256322

Sum Sq Dev 367539 1009027 809327 1356855 1072816 542746 2351912 1094302 506657 663408

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

29

Panel 2 Exports


Mean 43295 41726 44997 33564 39203 39204 42884 37423 36712 41902

Median 43989 42513 46369 33563 40228 37215 43260 34893 36168 41063

Maximum 49267 47480 48047 50647 51078 48075 48591 52280 49347 48121

Minimum 35181 32658 38487 10999 28248 31282 35764 22685 20866 32299

Std Dev 03567 04627 02889 12951 07307 05704 03974 09473 09485 04404

Skewness -05126 -03390 -11139 -01593 01003 01444 -03788 02615 -01339 -00785

Kurtosis 24040 16695 28948 16237 17569 13333 18292 17687 15771 19101

Jarque-Bera 63277 100352 223840 89813 71350 128756 87513 80535 94336 54568

Probability 00423 00066 00000 00112 00282 00016 00126 00178 00089 00653

Sum 4675847 4506379 4859645 3624899 4233933 4234076 4631435 4041731 3964876 4525383

Sum Sq Dev 136178 229032 89333 1794823 571317 348181 168996 960184 962699 207557

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 42639 41893 42189 40448 42248 44177 39647 39949 43572 42808

Median 42484 42653 42154 38822 43018 44454 41144 39034 43987 42616

Maximum 47407 47004 48937 48585 47489 47584 52432 47544 47638 47884

Minimum 36895 30077 36326 33208 34602 38788 25067 31643 37575 35685

Std Dev 03435 04889 04158 05011 03967 02711 07820 04997 03222 03643

Skewness -00975 -08534 -00141 03327 -03128 -05993 -02009 -00408 -05455 -02672

Kurtosis 15123 25749 15233 15819 16434 21907 19619 15902 19928 19945

Jarque-Bera 101311 139237 98169 110416 100430 94126 55756 89743 99206 58349

Probability 00063 00009 00074 00040 00066 00090 00616 00113 00070 00541

Sum 4605043 4524443 4556463 4368366 4562831 4771111 4281869 4314453 4705765 4623307

Sum Sq Dev 126277 255735 184992 268627 168392 78665 654348 267198 111068 141975

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

30

Panel 3 Imports


Mean 40716 39632 43130 33437 38252 41097 42805 36761 36202 42363

Median 40293 38797 43425 33938 42632 38025 43333 33749 34995 42524

Maximum 48275 47789 47365 51059 47958 48484 48334 50553 48606 48670

Minimum 31854 27002 36458 10124 23431 34572 36232 22924 19763 33482

Std Dev 05623 05535 03511 13000 08121 05130 03861 09070 09426 04291

Skewness -01054 -02950 -05179 -01564 -04266 02822 -03998 01867 -01796 -00986

Kurtosis 16142 23579 19916 16996 17030 13341 17464 15966 16997 18396

Jarque-Bera 88414 34218 94030 80500 108455 139220 99495 94901 81891 62349

Probability 00120 01807 00091 00179 00044 00009 00069 00087 00167 00443

Sum 4397345 4280285 4658019 3611214 4131240 4438484 4622917 3970134 3909800 4575180

Sum Sq Dev 338298 327825 131914 1808338 705702 281581 159501 880160 950711 197015

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 44596 41885 41548 35841 39996 42484 39020 40019 43214 42898

Median 44561 41759 40821 35106 40211 41620 38407 38883 44214 44011

Maximum 48381 47750 49720 46132 49229 48587 49650 47288 48210 47980

Minimum 40342 29293 35068 24090 30390 34645 29905 31802 36600 34622

Std Dev 02461 04854 04568 06666 06219 04457 07157 05136 03670 04301

Skewness -02384 -06748 01142 00167 00316 -02192 02042 00811 -05114 -06862

Kurtosis 19290 25254 14961 15951 14596 18055 14998 14947 18138 20792

Jarque-Bera 61848 92090 104121 88865 106955 72860 108786 103152 110391 122905

Probability 00454 00100 00055 00118 00048 00262 00043 00058 00040 00021

Sum 4816391 4523614 4487204 3870807 4319557 4588249 4214119 4322059 4667138 4633015

Sum Sq Dev 64784 252086 223300 475453 413775 212507 548102 282235 144087 197896

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

31


Panel 1 Total Trade

Panel 2 Exports

0

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Panel 3 Imports


0

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33



level Critical

value at 5

PP Test stat at

1st Diff

Critical value at 5


Australia -2087649 -3452358 -5511474 -3452764 I(1)

Brazil -151073 -3452358 -4815699 -3452764 I(1)

Canada -1688886 -3452358 -4919794 -3452764 I(1)

China -0761713 -3452358 -4666041 -3452764 I(1)

DRCongo -2701397 -3452358 -4969701 -3452764 I(1)

Egypt -1110372 -3452358 -4587926 -3452764 I(1)

EU -2479035 -3452358 -4796753 -3452764 I(1)

Ghana -1789434 -3452358 -4749838 -3452764 I(1)

India -0176913 -3452358 -5580811 -3452764 I(1)

Indonesia -1940294 -3452358 -7723706 -3452764 I(1)

Japan -27304 -3452358 -4666113 -3452764 I(1)

Malaysia -1798537 -3452358 -5140808 -3452764 I(1)

Morocco -3427262 -3452358 -5251978 -3452764 I(1)

Nigeria -1885798 -3452358 -6573952 -3452764 I(1)

Russia -2427019 -3452358 -4584745 -3452764 I(1)

Safrica -2459347 -3452358 -5061753 -3452764 I(1)

Tanzania -2080362 -3452358 -4639207 -3452764 I(1)

Tunisia -2521464 -3452358 -4922059 -3452764 I(1)

UK -292419 -3452358 -4914527 -3452764 I(1)



34


Panel 1 Trace test



None 08119 20372650 7605409 00000

At most 1 07484 18618330 6950496 00000

At most 2 06943 17169350 6409570 00000

At most 3 06896 15925080 5945066 00000

At most 4 06813 14696730 5486505 00000

At most 5 06751 13496030 5038266 00000

At most 6 06619 12315570 4597583 00000

At most 7 06605 11176950 4172519 00000

At most 8 06570 10042670 3749076 00000

At most 9 06534 8919101 3220692 00000

At most 10 06439 7806611 2731889 00000

At most 11 06424 6722533 2282979 00001

At most 12 06365 5642802 1874701 00000

At most 13 06312 4580251 1505585 00000

At most 14 06183 3532980 1177082 00000

At most 15 05059 2521643 888038 00000

At most 16 04229 1781345 638761 00000

At most 17 03477 1204084 429153 00000

At most 18 03308 755525 258721 00000

At most 19 02723 333740 125180 00000



Max-Eigen Stat


None 08119 1754311 1262691 00000

At most 1 07484 1448984 1042928 00000

At most 2 06943 1244273 895584 00000

At most 3 06896 1228346 884120 00000

At most 4 06813 1200704 864224 00000

At most 5 06751 1180455 849650 00000

At most 6 06619 1138626 819543 00000

At most 7 06605 1134280 816415 00000

At most 8 06570 1123565 808703 00000

At most 9 06534 1112489 748375 00000

At most 10 06439 1084078 688121 00000

At most 11 06424 1079731 627522 00000

35

At most 12 06365 1062552 567052 00000

At most 13 06312 1047271 505999 00000

At most 14 06183 1011337 444972 00000

At most 15 05059 740298 383310 00000

At most 16 04229 577261 321183 00000

At most 17 03477 448558 258232 00001

At most 18 03308 421785 193870 00000

At most 19 02723 333740 125180 00000

Source Authors

36






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USA 75340 31220 52535 24920 32451 80425 16142 58582

Brazil 70609 08813 89311 04341 118017 31421 34896 70440

Russia 77612 125327 110425 34878 37666 32531 20684 95616

India 37554 88615 28643 68745 14462 45156 27108 20011

China 72605 55905 65828 98491 44992 74646 19369 79720

South Africa 97203 36750 72784 35206 31078 59433 25869 68574

Australia 11614 44655 02851 08205 109096 02585 32873 15055

Canada 73007 73293 50845 17185 57174 54735 08255 60655

EU 84055 25762 66141 26268 48995 68512 12978 68320

Indonesia 19769 24314 01169 80320 18449 16285 14550 05139

Japan 85308 40028 55534 22141 62552 85835 16891 70244

Malaysia 56649 70935 37736 31557 26228 67378 19406 37956

UK 53469 16542 64573 110048 19054 107249 55380 45530

DR Congo 29744 215520 39112 71369 09432 26191 07574 32377

Egypt 43495 37493 140244 17884 31158 27479 80075 60913

Ghana 03332 39604 21476 261490 10461 04486 12166 24795

Morocco 26742 12945 28298 04647 232156 27901 47621 48632

Nigeria 30411 05806 22706 64205 14887 130388 42022 25243

Tanzania 03455 10693 03545 11170 24621 31812 501363 06036

Tunisia 48028 35778 46245 06928 57070 25551 04778 106163



Total from BRICS 258380 315410 366990 241662 246216 243188 127926 334361

Total from Asia 349497 405125 299335 336134 204349 321832 118008 308685



38




USA 84417 27346 64937 08671 58633 45316 50364 08786

Brazil 62986 17990 52082 67154 42216 23105 79339 53891

Russia 80149 22871 85737 59520 44582 03436 72180 08594

India 24108 88781 32734 41954 80329 59152 35292 31134

China 57369 67788 51214 97239 36961 03302 48212 15927

South Africa 96491 23300 70515 22174 37526 16513 58827 15241

Australia 29237 67747 29516 62979 69457 03181 43946 24635

Canada 68897 31125 55227 47717 82931 07959 61205 05466

EU 71382 41920 40932 09740 82114 44444 71835 16233

Indonesia 45443 03361 37592 03145 24308 04855 20374 05870

Japan 67811 27701 61483 42867 46307 37472 64150 53856

Malaysia 57080 08193 56191 27331 61632 42365 26281 25684

UK 79705 08899 57763 09308 18636 75911 39259 30355

DR Congo 09940 314128 04962 51581 29301 07936 32248 94814

Egypt 33338 15688 113752 57598 34201 18514 40609 16733

Ghana 14299 25910 45405 243033 14637 60390 36649 10144

Morocco 29828 91510 32439 50298 136523 28312 64231 34121

Nigeria 16423 06604 31183 17516 07315 390801 09295 68504

Tunisia 40701 34480 50979 63742 67218 35759 117458 38775

Tanzania 30396 74657 25357 16435 25175 91275 28247 441238



Total from BRICS 224613 220729 292282 288040 241613 105508 293849 124787

Total from Asia 331961 218695 324952 272055 294119 150583 266489 141065



39




USA 09188 00959 09065 00856

Brazil 08344 01108 08742 00260

Russia 08388 02094 08924 00929

India 09000 -01139 08413 -00254

China 09102 01438 08912 00402

South Africa 09028 00416 09035 00097

Australia 07105 -02842 08673 -00439

Canada 08991 00946 08986 01122

EU 09121 01077 08971 00713

Indonesia 07591 -03108 08369 -02587

Japan 08998 01361 08803 00883

Malaysia 09000 00528 08364 00472

UK 08870 00649 08808 -00493

DR Congo 07845 -00328 06859 -00974

Egypt 08598 -00230 08862 -01441

Ghana 07385 -03746 07570 -01304

Morocco 07678 -00723 08635 01011

Nigeria 08696 -01538 06092 -02776

Tanzania 04986 -03598 05588 -00770


40




USA 918838 1116203 197365 906516 1080837 174321

Brazil 834405 1048823 214418 874223 922305 48081

Russia 838838 1301518 462681 892421 1076102 183681

India 900031 715701 -184330 841338 842608 01270

China 910213 1216863 306650 891159 966746 75587

South Africa 902797 982282 79485 903509 923706 20197

Australia 710525 395694 -314831 867260 798447 -68813

Canada 899143 1089583 190440 898639 1131561 232923

EU 912144 1134632 222487 897115 1036992 139877

Indonesia 759059 405570 -353488 836906 492962 -343944

Japan 899771 1184811 285039 880287 1054533 174246

Malaysia 899995 1001143 101148 836384 922360 85975

UK 887018 1011048 124029 880782 799256 -81526

DR Congo 784480 738784 -45696 685872 576096 -109776

Egypt 859756 838059 -21696 886248 665117 -221131

Ghana 738510 364252 -374258 756967 607614 -149354

Morocco 767844 666083 -101761 863477 1066309 202831

Nigeria 869612 638121 -231491 609199 351031 -258168

Tanzania 498637 239716 -258921 558762 535112 -23650


29

Panel 2 Exports


Mean 43295 41726 44997 33564 39203 39204 42884 37423 36712 41902

Median 43989 42513 46369 33563 40228 37215 43260 34893 36168 41063

Maximum 49267 47480 48047 50647 51078 48075 48591 52280 49347 48121

Minimum 35181 32658 38487 10999 28248 31282 35764 22685 20866 32299

Std Dev 03567 04627 02889 12951 07307 05704 03974 09473 09485 04404

Skewness -05126 -03390 -11139 -01593 01003 01444 -03788 02615 -01339 -00785

Kurtosis 24040 16695 28948 16237 17569 13333 18292 17687 15771 19101

Jarque-Bera 63277 100352 223840 89813 71350 128756 87513 80535 94336 54568

Probability 00423 00066 00000 00112 00282 00016 00126 00178 00089 00653

Sum 4675847 4506379 4859645 3624899 4233933 4234076 4631435 4041731 3964876 4525383

Sum Sq Dev 136178 229032 89333 1794823 571317 348181 168996 960184 962699 207557

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 42639 41893 42189 40448 42248 44177 39647 39949 43572 42808

Median 42484 42653 42154 38822 43018 44454 41144 39034 43987 42616

Maximum 47407 47004 48937 48585 47489 47584 52432 47544 47638 47884

Minimum 36895 30077 36326 33208 34602 38788 25067 31643 37575 35685

Std Dev 03435 04889 04158 05011 03967 02711 07820 04997 03222 03643

Skewness -00975 -08534 -00141 03327 -03128 -05993 -02009 -00408 -05455 -02672

Kurtosis 15123 25749 15233 15819 16434 21907 19619 15902 19928 19945

Jarque-Bera 101311 139237 98169 110416 100430 94126 55756 89743 99206 58349

Probability 00063 00009 00074 00040 00066 00090 00616 00113 00070 00541

Sum 4605043 4524443 4556463 4368366 4562831 4771111 4281869 4314453 4705765 4623307

Sum Sq Dev 126277 255735 184992 268627 168392 78665 654348 267198 111068 141975

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

30

Panel 3 Imports


Mean 40716 39632 43130 33437 38252 41097 42805 36761 36202 42363

Median 40293 38797 43425 33938 42632 38025 43333 33749 34995 42524

Maximum 48275 47789 47365 51059 47958 48484 48334 50553 48606 48670

Minimum 31854 27002 36458 10124 23431 34572 36232 22924 19763 33482

Std Dev 05623 05535 03511 13000 08121 05130 03861 09070 09426 04291

Skewness -01054 -02950 -05179 -01564 -04266 02822 -03998 01867 -01796 -00986

Kurtosis 16142 23579 19916 16996 17030 13341 17464 15966 16997 18396

Jarque-Bera 88414 34218 94030 80500 108455 139220 99495 94901 81891 62349

Probability 00120 01807 00091 00179 00044 00009 00069 00087 00167 00443

Sum 4397345 4280285 4658019 3611214 4131240 4438484 4622917 3970134 3909800 4575180

Sum Sq Dev 338298 327825 131914 1808338 705702 281581 159501 880160 950711 197015

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 44596 41885 41548 35841 39996 42484 39020 40019 43214 42898

Median 44561 41759 40821 35106 40211 41620 38407 38883 44214 44011

Maximum 48381 47750 49720 46132 49229 48587 49650 47288 48210 47980

Minimum 40342 29293 35068 24090 30390 34645 29905 31802 36600 34622

Std Dev 02461 04854 04568 06666 06219 04457 07157 05136 03670 04301

Skewness -02384 -06748 01142 00167 00316 -02192 02042 00811 -05114 -06862

Kurtosis 19290 25254 14961 15951 14596 18055 14998 14947 18138 20792

Jarque-Bera 61848 92090 104121 88865 106955 72860 108786 103152 110391 122905

Probability 00454 00100 00055 00118 00048 00262 00043 00058 00040 00021

Sum 4816391 4523614 4487204 3870807 4319557 4588249 4214119 4322059 4667138 4633015

Sum Sq Dev 64784 252086 223300 475453 413775 212507 548102 282235 144087 197896

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

31


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level Critical

value at 5

PP Test stat at

1st Diff

Critical value at 5


Australia -2087649 -3452358 -5511474 -3452764 I(1)

Brazil -151073 -3452358 -4815699 -3452764 I(1)

Canada -1688886 -3452358 -4919794 -3452764 I(1)

China -0761713 -3452358 -4666041 -3452764 I(1)

DRCongo -2701397 -3452358 -4969701 -3452764 I(1)

Egypt -1110372 -3452358 -4587926 -3452764 I(1)

EU -2479035 -3452358 -4796753 -3452764 I(1)

Ghana -1789434 -3452358 -4749838 -3452764 I(1)

India -0176913 -3452358 -5580811 -3452764 I(1)

Indonesia -1940294 -3452358 -7723706 -3452764 I(1)

Japan -27304 -3452358 -4666113 -3452764 I(1)

Malaysia -1798537 -3452358 -5140808 -3452764 I(1)

Morocco -3427262 -3452358 -5251978 -3452764 I(1)

Nigeria -1885798 -3452358 -6573952 -3452764 I(1)

Russia -2427019 -3452358 -4584745 -3452764 I(1)

Safrica -2459347 -3452358 -5061753 -3452764 I(1)

Tanzania -2080362 -3452358 -4639207 -3452764 I(1)

Tunisia -2521464 -3452358 -4922059 -3452764 I(1)

UK -292419 -3452358 -4914527 -3452764 I(1)



34


Panel 1 Trace test



None 08119 20372650 7605409 00000

At most 1 07484 18618330 6950496 00000

At most 2 06943 17169350 6409570 00000

At most 3 06896 15925080 5945066 00000

At most 4 06813 14696730 5486505 00000

At most 5 06751 13496030 5038266 00000

At most 6 06619 12315570 4597583 00000

At most 7 06605 11176950 4172519 00000

At most 8 06570 10042670 3749076 00000

At most 9 06534 8919101 3220692 00000

At most 10 06439 7806611 2731889 00000

At most 11 06424 6722533 2282979 00001

At most 12 06365 5642802 1874701 00000

At most 13 06312 4580251 1505585 00000

At most 14 06183 3532980 1177082 00000

At most 15 05059 2521643 888038 00000

At most 16 04229 1781345 638761 00000

At most 17 03477 1204084 429153 00000

At most 18 03308 755525 258721 00000

At most 19 02723 333740 125180 00000



Max-Eigen Stat


None 08119 1754311 1262691 00000

At most 1 07484 1448984 1042928 00000

At most 2 06943 1244273 895584 00000

At most 3 06896 1228346 884120 00000

At most 4 06813 1200704 864224 00000

At most 5 06751 1180455 849650 00000

At most 6 06619 1138626 819543 00000

At most 7 06605 1134280 816415 00000

At most 8 06570 1123565 808703 00000

At most 9 06534 1112489 748375 00000

At most 10 06439 1084078 688121 00000

At most 11 06424 1079731 627522 00000

35

At most 12 06365 1062552 567052 00000

At most 13 06312 1047271 505999 00000

At most 14 06183 1011337 444972 00000

At most 15 05059 740298 383310 00000

At most 16 04229 577261 321183 00000

At most 17 03477 448558 258232 00001

At most 18 03308 421785 193870 00000

At most 19 02723 333740 125180 00000

Source Authors

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USA 75340 31220 52535 24920 32451 80425 16142 58582

Brazil 70609 08813 89311 04341 118017 31421 34896 70440

Russia 77612 125327 110425 34878 37666 32531 20684 95616

India 37554 88615 28643 68745 14462 45156 27108 20011

China 72605 55905 65828 98491 44992 74646 19369 79720

South Africa 97203 36750 72784 35206 31078 59433 25869 68574

Australia 11614 44655 02851 08205 109096 02585 32873 15055

Canada 73007 73293 50845 17185 57174 54735 08255 60655

EU 84055 25762 66141 26268 48995 68512 12978 68320

Indonesia 19769 24314 01169 80320 18449 16285 14550 05139

Japan 85308 40028 55534 22141 62552 85835 16891 70244

Malaysia 56649 70935 37736 31557 26228 67378 19406 37956

UK 53469 16542 64573 110048 19054 107249 55380 45530

DR Congo 29744 215520 39112 71369 09432 26191 07574 32377

Egypt 43495 37493 140244 17884 31158 27479 80075 60913

Ghana 03332 39604 21476 261490 10461 04486 12166 24795

Morocco 26742 12945 28298 04647 232156 27901 47621 48632

Nigeria 30411 05806 22706 64205 14887 130388 42022 25243

Tanzania 03455 10693 03545 11170 24621 31812 501363 06036

Tunisia 48028 35778 46245 06928 57070 25551 04778 106163



Total from BRICS 258380 315410 366990 241662 246216 243188 127926 334361

Total from Asia 349497 405125 299335 336134 204349 321832 118008 308685



38




USA 84417 27346 64937 08671 58633 45316 50364 08786

Brazil 62986 17990 52082 67154 42216 23105 79339 53891

Russia 80149 22871 85737 59520 44582 03436 72180 08594

India 24108 88781 32734 41954 80329 59152 35292 31134

China 57369 67788 51214 97239 36961 03302 48212 15927

South Africa 96491 23300 70515 22174 37526 16513 58827 15241

Australia 29237 67747 29516 62979 69457 03181 43946 24635

Canada 68897 31125 55227 47717 82931 07959 61205 05466

EU 71382 41920 40932 09740 82114 44444 71835 16233

Indonesia 45443 03361 37592 03145 24308 04855 20374 05870

Japan 67811 27701 61483 42867 46307 37472 64150 53856

Malaysia 57080 08193 56191 27331 61632 42365 26281 25684

UK 79705 08899 57763 09308 18636 75911 39259 30355

DR Congo 09940 314128 04962 51581 29301 07936 32248 94814

Egypt 33338 15688 113752 57598 34201 18514 40609 16733

Ghana 14299 25910 45405 243033 14637 60390 36649 10144

Morocco 29828 91510 32439 50298 136523 28312 64231 34121

Nigeria 16423 06604 31183 17516 07315 390801 09295 68504

Tunisia 40701 34480 50979 63742 67218 35759 117458 38775

Tanzania 30396 74657 25357 16435 25175 91275 28247 441238



Total from BRICS 224613 220729 292282 288040 241613 105508 293849 124787

Total from Asia 331961 218695 324952 272055 294119 150583 266489 141065



39




USA 09188 00959 09065 00856

Brazil 08344 01108 08742 00260

Russia 08388 02094 08924 00929

India 09000 -01139 08413 -00254

China 09102 01438 08912 00402

South Africa 09028 00416 09035 00097

Australia 07105 -02842 08673 -00439

Canada 08991 00946 08986 01122

EU 09121 01077 08971 00713

Indonesia 07591 -03108 08369 -02587

Japan 08998 01361 08803 00883

Malaysia 09000 00528 08364 00472

UK 08870 00649 08808 -00493

DR Congo 07845 -00328 06859 -00974

Egypt 08598 -00230 08862 -01441

Ghana 07385 -03746 07570 -01304

Morocco 07678 -00723 08635 01011

Nigeria 08696 -01538 06092 -02776

Tanzania 04986 -03598 05588 -00770


40




USA 918838 1116203 197365 906516 1080837 174321

Brazil 834405 1048823 214418 874223 922305 48081

Russia 838838 1301518 462681 892421 1076102 183681

India 900031 715701 -184330 841338 842608 01270

China 910213 1216863 306650 891159 966746 75587

South Africa 902797 982282 79485 903509 923706 20197

Australia 710525 395694 -314831 867260 798447 -68813

Canada 899143 1089583 190440 898639 1131561 232923

EU 912144 1134632 222487 897115 1036992 139877

Indonesia 759059 405570 -353488 836906 492962 -343944

Japan 899771 1184811 285039 880287 1054533 174246

Malaysia 899995 1001143 101148 836384 922360 85975

UK 887018 1011048 124029 880782 799256 -81526

DR Congo 784480 738784 -45696 685872 576096 -109776

Egypt 859756 838059 -21696 886248 665117 -221131

Ghana 738510 364252 -374258 756967 607614 -149354

Morocco 767844 666083 -101761 863477 1066309 202831

Nigeria 869612 638121 -231491 609199 351031 -258168

Tanzania 498637 239716 -258921 558762 535112 -23650


30

Panel 3 Imports


Mean 40716 39632 43130 33437 38252 41097 42805 36761 36202 42363

Median 40293 38797 43425 33938 42632 38025 43333 33749 34995 42524

Maximum 48275 47789 47365 51059 47958 48484 48334 50553 48606 48670

Minimum 31854 27002 36458 10124 23431 34572 36232 22924 19763 33482

Std Dev 05623 05535 03511 13000 08121 05130 03861 09070 09426 04291

Skewness -01054 -02950 -05179 -01564 -04266 02822 -03998 01867 -01796 -00986

Kurtosis 16142 23579 19916 16996 17030 13341 17464 15966 16997 18396

Jarque-Bera 88414 34218 94030 80500 108455 139220 99495 94901 81891 62349

Probability 00120 01807 00091 00179 00044 00009 00069 00087 00167 00443

Sum 4397345 4280285 4658019 3611214 4131240 4438484 4622917 3970134 3909800 4575180

Sum Sq Dev 338298 327825 131914 1808338 705702 281581 159501 880160 950711 197015

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108


Mean 44596 41885 41548 35841 39996 42484 39020 40019 43214 42898

Median 44561 41759 40821 35106 40211 41620 38407 38883 44214 44011

Maximum 48381 47750 49720 46132 49229 48587 49650 47288 48210 47980

Minimum 40342 29293 35068 24090 30390 34645 29905 31802 36600 34622

Std Dev 02461 04854 04568 06666 06219 04457 07157 05136 03670 04301

Skewness -02384 -06748 01142 00167 00316 -02192 02042 00811 -05114 -06862

Kurtosis 19290 25254 14961 15951 14596 18055 14998 14947 18138 20792

Jarque-Bera 61848 92090 104121 88865 106955 72860 108786 103152 110391 122905

Probability 00454 00100 00055 00118 00048 00262 00043 00058 00040 00021

Sum 4816391 4523614 4487204 3870807 4319557 4588249 4214119 4322059 4667138 4633015

Sum Sq Dev 64784 252086 223300 475453 413775 212507 548102 282235 144087 197896

Observations 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108

31


Panel 1 Total Trade

Panel 2 Exports

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20

03

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20

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20

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32

Panel 3 Imports


0

1

2

3

4

5

61

99

0Q

1

19

91

Q1

19

92

Q1

19

93

Q1

19

94

Q1

19

95

Q1

19

96

Q1

19

97

Q1

19

98

Q1

19

99

Q1

20

00

Q1

20

01

Q1

20

02

Q1

20

03

Q1

20

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Q1

20

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Q1

20

06

Q1

20

07

Q1

20

08

Q1

20

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Q1

20

10

Q1

20

11

Q1

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Q1

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13

Q1

20

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Q1

20

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Q1

20

16

Q1

Log

of

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ort

s






33



level Critical

value at 5

PP Test stat at

1st Diff

Critical value at 5


Australia -2087649 -3452358 -5511474 -3452764 I(1)

Brazil -151073 -3452358 -4815699 -3452764 I(1)

Canada -1688886 -3452358 -4919794 -3452764 I(1)

China -0761713 -3452358 -4666041 -3452764 I(1)

DRCongo -2701397 -3452358 -4969701 -3452764 I(1)

Egypt -1110372 -3452358 -4587926 -3452764 I(1)

EU -2479035 -3452358 -4796753 -3452764 I(1)

Ghana -1789434 -3452358 -4749838 -3452764 I(1)

India -0176913 -3452358 -5580811 -3452764 I(1)

Indonesia -1940294 -3452358 -7723706 -3452764 I(1)

Japan -27304 -3452358 -4666113 -3452764 I(1)

Malaysia -1798537 -3452358 -5140808 -3452764 I(1)

Morocco -3427262 -3452358 -5251978 -3452764 I(1)

Nigeria -1885798 -3452358 -6573952 -3452764 I(1)

Russia -2427019 -3452358 -4584745 -3452764 I(1)

Safrica -2459347 -3452358 -5061753 -3452764 I(1)

Tanzania -2080362 -3452358 -4639207 -3452764 I(1)

Tunisia -2521464 -3452358 -4922059 -3452764 I(1)

UK -292419 -3452358 -4914527 -3452764 I(1)



34


Panel 1 Trace test



None 08119 20372650 7605409 00000

At most 1 07484 18618330 6950496 00000

At most 2 06943 17169350 6409570 00000

At most 3 06896 15925080 5945066 00000

At most 4 06813 14696730 5486505 00000

At most 5 06751 13496030 5038266 00000

At most 6 06619 12315570 4597583 00000

At most 7 06605 11176950 4172519 00000

At most 8 06570 10042670 3749076 00000

At most 9 06534 8919101 3220692 00000

At most 10 06439 7806611 2731889 00000

At most 11 06424 6722533 2282979 00001

At most 12 06365 5642802 1874701 00000

At most 13 06312 4580251 1505585 00000

At most 14 06183 3532980 1177082 00000

At most 15 05059 2521643 888038 00000

At most 16 04229 1781345 638761 00000

At most 17 03477 1204084 429153 00000

At most 18 03308 755525 258721 00000

At most 19 02723 333740 125180 00000



Max-Eigen Stat


None 08119 1754311 1262691 00000

At most 1 07484 1448984 1042928 00000

At most 2 06943 1244273 895584 00000

At most 3 06896 1228346 884120 00000

At most 4 06813 1200704 864224 00000

At most 5 06751 1180455 849650 00000

At most 6 06619 1138626 819543 00000

At most 7 06605 1134280 816415 00000

At most 8 06570 1123565 808703 00000

At most 9 06534 1112489 748375 00000

At most 10 06439 1084078 688121 00000

At most 11 06424 1079731 627522 00000

35

At most 12 06365 1062552 567052 00000

At most 13 06312 1047271 505999 00000

At most 14 06183 1011337 444972 00000

At most 15 05059 740298 383310 00000

At most 16 04229 577261 321183 00000

At most 17 03477 448558 258232 00001

At most 18 03308 421785 193870 00000

At most 19 02723 333740 125180 00000

Source Authors

36






0

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Pe

rce

nta

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37





USA 75340 31220 52535 24920 32451 80425 16142 58582

Brazil 70609 08813 89311 04341 118017 31421 34896 70440

Russia 77612 125327 110425 34878 37666 32531 20684 95616

India 37554 88615 28643 68745 14462 45156 27108 20011

China 72605 55905 65828 98491 44992 74646 19369 79720

South Africa 97203 36750 72784 35206 31078 59433 25869 68574

Australia 11614 44655 02851 08205 109096 02585 32873 15055

Canada 73007 73293 50845 17185 57174 54735 08255 60655

EU 84055 25762 66141 26268 48995 68512 12978 68320

Indonesia 19769 24314 01169 80320 18449 16285 14550 05139

Japan 85308 40028 55534 22141 62552 85835 16891 70244

Malaysia 56649 70935 37736 31557 26228 67378 19406 37956

UK 53469 16542 64573 110048 19054 107249 55380 45530

DR Congo 29744 215520 39112 71369 09432 26191 07574 32377

Egypt 43495 37493 140244 17884 31158 27479 80075 60913

Ghana 03332 39604 21476 261490 10461 04486 12166 24795

Morocco 26742 12945 28298 04647 232156 27901 47621 48632

Nigeria 30411 05806 22706 64205 14887 130388 42022 25243

Tanzania 03455 10693 03545 11170 24621 31812 501363 06036

Tunisia 48028 35778 46245 06928 57070 25551 04778 106163



Total from BRICS 258380 315410 366990 241662 246216 243188 127926 334361

Total from Asia 349497 405125 299335 336134 204349 321832 118008 308685



38




USA 84417 27346 64937 08671 58633 45316 50364 08786

Brazil 62986 17990 52082 67154 42216 23105 79339 53891

Russia 80149 22871 85737 59520 44582 03436 72180 08594

India 24108 88781 32734 41954 80329 59152 35292 31134

China 57369 67788 51214 97239 36961 03302 48212 15927

South Africa 96491 23300 70515 22174 37526 16513 58827 15241

Australia 29237 67747 29516 62979 69457 03181 43946 24635

Canada 68897 31125 55227 47717 82931 07959 61205 05466

EU 71382 41920 40932 09740 82114 44444 71835 16233

Indonesia 45443 03361 37592 03145 24308 04855 20374 05870

Japan 67811 27701 61483 42867 46307 37472 64150 53856

Malaysia 57080 08193 56191 27331 61632 42365 26281 25684

UK 79705 08899 57763 09308 18636 75911 39259 30355

DR Congo 09940 314128 04962 51581 29301 07936 32248 94814

Egypt 33338 15688 113752 57598 34201 18514 40609 16733

Ghana 14299 25910 45405 243033 14637 60390 36649 10144

Morocco 29828 91510 32439 50298 136523 28312 64231 34121

Nigeria 16423 06604 31183 17516 07315 390801 09295 68504

Tunisia 40701 34480 50979 63742 67218 35759 117458 38775

Tanzania 30396 74657 25357 16435 25175 91275 28247 441238



Total from BRICS 224613 220729 292282 288040 241613 105508 293849 124787

Total from Asia 331961 218695 324952 272055 294119 150583 266489 141065



39




USA 09188 00959 09065 00856

Brazil 08344 01108 08742 00260

Russia 08388 02094 08924 00929

India 09000 -01139 08413 -00254

China 09102 01438 08912 00402

South Africa 09028 00416 09035 00097

Australia 07105 -02842 08673 -00439

Canada 08991 00946 08986 01122

EU 09121 01077 08971 00713

Indonesia 07591 -03108 08369 -02587

Japan 08998 01361 08803 00883

Malaysia 09000 00528 08364 00472

UK 08870 00649 08808 -00493

DR Congo 07845 -00328 06859 -00974

Egypt 08598 -00230 08862 -01441

Ghana 07385 -03746 07570 -01304

Morocco 07678 -00723 08635 01011

Nigeria 08696 -01538 06092 -02776

Tanzania 04986 -03598 05588 -00770


40




USA 918838 1116203 197365 906516 1080837 174321

Brazil 834405 1048823 214418 874223 922305 48081

Russia 838838 1301518 462681 892421 1076102 183681

India 900031 715701 -184330 841338 842608 01270

China 910213 1216863 306650 891159 966746 75587

South Africa 902797 982282 79485 903509 923706 20197

Australia 710525 395694 -314831 867260 798447 -68813

Canada 899143 1089583 190440 898639 1131561 232923

EU 912144 1134632 222487 897115 1036992 139877

Indonesia 759059 405570 -353488 836906 492962 -343944

Japan 899771 1184811 285039 880287 1054533 174246

Malaysia 899995 1001143 101148 836384 922360 85975

UK 887018 1011048 124029 880782 799256 -81526

DR Congo 784480 738784 -45696 685872 576096 -109776

Egypt 859756 838059 -21696 886248 665117 -221131

Ghana 738510 364252 -374258 756967 607614 -149354

Morocco 767844 666083 -101761 863477 1066309 202831

Nigeria 869612 638121 -231491 609199 351031 -258168

Tanzania 498637 239716 -258921 558762 535112 -23650


31


Panel 1 Total Trade

Panel 2 Exports

0

2

4

6

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121

99

0Q

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91

Q1

19

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Q1

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Q1

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Q1

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16

Q1

Log

of

Tota

l Tra

de






0

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Q1

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32

Panel 3 Imports


0

1

2

3

4

5

61

99

0Q

1

19

91

Q1

19

92

Q1

19

93

Q1

19

94

Q1

19

95

Q1

19

96

Q1

19

97

Q1

19

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19

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Q1

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00

Q1

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01

Q1

20

02

Q1

20

03

Q1

20

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Q1

20

05

Q1

20

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Q1

20

07

Q1

20

08

Q1

20

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Q1

20

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Q1

20

11

Q1

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Q1

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Q1

20

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Q1

20

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Q1

20

16

Q1

Log

of

Imp

ort

s






33



level Critical

value at 5

PP Test stat at

1st Diff

Critical value at 5


Australia -2087649 -3452358 -5511474 -3452764 I(1)

Brazil -151073 -3452358 -4815699 -3452764 I(1)

Canada -1688886 -3452358 -4919794 -3452764 I(1)

China -0761713 -3452358 -4666041 -3452764 I(1)

DRCongo -2701397 -3452358 -4969701 -3452764 I(1)

Egypt -1110372 -3452358 -4587926 -3452764 I(1)

EU -2479035 -3452358 -4796753 -3452764 I(1)

Ghana -1789434 -3452358 -4749838 -3452764 I(1)

India -0176913 -3452358 -5580811 -3452764 I(1)

Indonesia -1940294 -3452358 -7723706 -3452764 I(1)

Japan -27304 -3452358 -4666113 -3452764 I(1)

Malaysia -1798537 -3452358 -5140808 -3452764 I(1)

Morocco -3427262 -3452358 -5251978 -3452764 I(1)

Nigeria -1885798 -3452358 -6573952 -3452764 I(1)

Russia -2427019 -3452358 -4584745 -3452764 I(1)

Safrica -2459347 -3452358 -5061753 -3452764 I(1)

Tanzania -2080362 -3452358 -4639207 -3452764 I(1)

Tunisia -2521464 -3452358 -4922059 -3452764 I(1)

UK -292419 -3452358 -4914527 -3452764 I(1)



34


Panel 1 Trace test



None 08119 20372650 7605409 00000

At most 1 07484 18618330 6950496 00000

At most 2 06943 17169350 6409570 00000

At most 3 06896 15925080 5945066 00000

At most 4 06813 14696730 5486505 00000

At most 5 06751 13496030 5038266 00000

At most 6 06619 12315570 4597583 00000

At most 7 06605 11176950 4172519 00000

At most 8 06570 10042670 3749076 00000

At most 9 06534 8919101 3220692 00000

At most 10 06439 7806611 2731889 00000

At most 11 06424 6722533 2282979 00001

At most 12 06365 5642802 1874701 00000

At most 13 06312 4580251 1505585 00000

At most 14 06183 3532980 1177082 00000

At most 15 05059 2521643 888038 00000

At most 16 04229 1781345 638761 00000

At most 17 03477 1204084 429153 00000

At most 18 03308 755525 258721 00000

At most 19 02723 333740 125180 00000



Max-Eigen Stat


None 08119 1754311 1262691 00000

At most 1 07484 1448984 1042928 00000

At most 2 06943 1244273 895584 00000

At most 3 06896 1228346 884120 00000

At most 4 06813 1200704 864224 00000

At most 5 06751 1180455 849650 00000

At most 6 06619 1138626 819543 00000

At most 7 06605 1134280 816415 00000

At most 8 06570 1123565 808703 00000

At most 9 06534 1112489 748375 00000

At most 10 06439 1084078 688121 00000

At most 11 06424 1079731 627522 00000

35

At most 12 06365 1062552 567052 00000

At most 13 06312 1047271 505999 00000

At most 14 06183 1011337 444972 00000

At most 15 05059 740298 383310 00000

At most 16 04229 577261 321183 00000

At most 17 03477 448558 258232 00001

At most 18 03308 421785 193870 00000

At most 19 02723 333740 125180 00000

Source Authors

36






0

10

20

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100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Pe

rce

nta

ge (

5)

Horizon

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50

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100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Pe

rce

nta

ge (

)

Horizon

37





USA 75340 31220 52535 24920 32451 80425 16142 58582

Brazil 70609 08813 89311 04341 118017 31421 34896 70440

Russia 77612 125327 110425 34878 37666 32531 20684 95616

India 37554 88615 28643 68745 14462 45156 27108 20011

China 72605 55905 65828 98491 44992 74646 19369 79720

South Africa 97203 36750 72784 35206 31078 59433 25869 68574

Australia 11614 44655 02851 08205 109096 02585 32873 15055

Canada 73007 73293 50845 17185 57174 54735 08255 60655

EU 84055 25762 66141 26268 48995 68512 12978 68320

Indonesia 19769 24314 01169 80320 18449 16285 14550 05139

Japan 85308 40028 55534 22141 62552 85835 16891 70244

Malaysia 56649 70935 37736 31557 26228 67378 19406 37956

UK 53469 16542 64573 110048 19054 107249 55380 45530

DR Congo 29744 215520 39112 71369 09432 26191 07574 32377

Egypt 43495 37493 140244 17884 31158 27479 80075 60913

Ghana 03332 39604 21476 261490 10461 04486 12166 24795

Morocco 26742 12945 28298 04647 232156 27901 47621 48632

Nigeria 30411 05806 22706 64205 14887 130388 42022 25243

Tanzania 03455 10693 03545 11170 24621 31812 501363 06036

Tunisia 48028 35778 46245 06928 57070 25551 04778 106163



Total from BRICS 258380 315410 366990 241662 246216 243188 127926 334361

Total from Asia 349497 405125 299335 336134 204349 321832 118008 308685



38




USA 84417 27346 64937 08671 58633 45316 50364 08786

Brazil 62986 17990 52082 67154 42216 23105 79339 53891

Russia 80149 22871 85737 59520 44582 03436 72180 08594

India 24108 88781 32734 41954 80329 59152 35292 31134

China 57369 67788 51214 97239 36961 03302 48212 15927

South Africa 96491 23300 70515 22174 37526 16513 58827 15241

Australia 29237 67747 29516 62979 69457 03181 43946 24635

Canada 68897 31125 55227 47717 82931 07959 61205 05466

EU 71382 41920 40932 09740 82114 44444 71835 16233

Indonesia 45443 03361 37592 03145 24308 04855 20374 05870

Japan 67811 27701 61483 42867 46307 37472 64150 53856

Malaysia 57080 08193 56191 27331 61632 42365 26281 25684

UK 79705 08899 57763 09308 18636 75911 39259 30355

DR Congo 09940 314128 04962 51581 29301 07936 32248 94814

Egypt 33338 15688 113752 57598 34201 18514 40609 16733

Ghana 14299 25910 45405 243033 14637 60390 36649 10144

Morocco 29828 91510 32439 50298 136523 28312 64231 34121

Nigeria 16423 06604 31183 17516 07315 390801 09295 68504

Tunisia 40701 34480 50979 63742 67218 35759 117458 38775

Tanzania 30396 74657 25357 16435 25175 91275 28247 441238



Total from BRICS 224613 220729 292282 288040 241613 105508 293849 124787

Total from Asia 331961 218695 324952 272055 294119 150583 266489 141065



39




USA 09188 00959 09065 00856

Brazil 08344 01108 08742 00260

Russia 08388 02094 08924 00929

India 09000 -01139 08413 -00254

China 09102 01438 08912 00402

South Africa 09028 00416 09035 00097

Australia 07105 -02842 08673 -00439

Canada 08991 00946 08986 01122

EU 09121 01077 08971 00713

Indonesia 07591 -03108 08369 -02587

Japan 08998 01361 08803 00883

Malaysia 09000 00528 08364 00472

UK 08870 00649 08808 -00493

DR Congo 07845 -00328 06859 -00974

Egypt 08598 -00230 08862 -01441

Ghana 07385 -03746 07570 -01304

Morocco 07678 -00723 08635 01011

Nigeria 08696 -01538 06092 -02776

Tanzania 04986 -03598 05588 -00770


40




USA 918838 1116203 197365 906516 1080837 174321

Brazil 834405 1048823 214418 874223 922305 48081

Russia 838838 1301518 462681 892421 1076102 183681

India 900031 715701 -184330 841338 842608 01270

China 910213 1216863 306650 891159 966746 75587

South Africa 902797 982282 79485 903509 923706 20197

Australia 710525 395694 -314831 867260 798447 -68813

Canada 899143 1089583 190440 898639 1131561 232923

EU 912144 1134632 222487 897115 1036992 139877

Indonesia 759059 405570 -353488 836906 492962 -343944

Japan 899771 1184811 285039 880287 1054533 174246

Malaysia 899995 1001143 101148 836384 922360 85975

UK 887018 1011048 124029 880782 799256 -81526

DR Congo 784480 738784 -45696 685872 576096 -109776

Egypt 859756 838059 -21696 886248 665117 -221131

Ghana 738510 364252 -374258 756967 607614 -149354

Morocco 767844 666083 -101761 863477 1066309 202831

Nigeria 869612 638121 -231491 609199 351031 -258168

Tanzania 498637 239716 -258921 558762 535112 -23650


32

Panel 3 Imports


0

1

2

3

4

5

61

99

0Q

1

19

91

Q1

19

92

Q1

19

93

Q1

19

94

Q1

19

95

Q1

19

96

Q1

19

97

Q1

19

98

Q1

19

99

Q1

20

00

Q1

20

01

Q1

20

02

Q1

20

03

Q1

20

04

Q1

20

05

Q1

20

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Q1

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Q1

20

08

Q1

20

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Q1

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Q1

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11

Q1

20

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Q1

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13

Q1

20

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Q1

20

15

Q1

20

16

Q1

Log

of

Imp

ort

s






33



level Critical

value at 5

PP Test stat at

1st Diff

Critical value at 5


Australia -2087649 -3452358 -5511474 -3452764 I(1)

Brazil -151073 -3452358 -4815699 -3452764 I(1)

Canada -1688886 -3452358 -4919794 -3452764 I(1)

China -0761713 -3452358 -4666041 -3452764 I(1)

DRCongo -2701397 -3452358 -4969701 -3452764 I(1)

Egypt -1110372 -3452358 -4587926 -3452764 I(1)

EU -2479035 -3452358 -4796753 -3452764 I(1)

Ghana -1789434 -3452358 -4749838 -3452764 I(1)

India -0176913 -3452358 -5580811 -3452764 I(1)

Indonesia -1940294 -3452358 -7723706 -3452764 I(1)

Japan -27304 -3452358 -4666113 -3452764 I(1)

Malaysia -1798537 -3452358 -5140808 -3452764 I(1)

Morocco -3427262 -3452358 -5251978 -3452764 I(1)

Nigeria -1885798 -3452358 -6573952 -3452764 I(1)

Russia -2427019 -3452358 -4584745 -3452764 I(1)

Safrica -2459347 -3452358 -5061753 -3452764 I(1)

Tanzania -2080362 -3452358 -4639207 -3452764 I(1)

Tunisia -2521464 -3452358 -4922059 -3452764 I(1)

UK -292419 -3452358 -4914527 -3452764 I(1)



34


Panel 1 Trace test



None 08119 20372650 7605409 00000

At most 1 07484 18618330 6950496 00000

At most 2 06943 17169350 6409570 00000

At most 3 06896 15925080 5945066 00000

At most 4 06813 14696730 5486505 00000

At most 5 06751 13496030 5038266 00000

At most 6 06619 12315570 4597583 00000

At most 7 06605 11176950 4172519 00000

At most 8 06570 10042670 3749076 00000

At most 9 06534 8919101 3220692 00000

At most 10 06439 7806611 2731889 00000

At most 11 06424 6722533 2282979 00001

At most 12 06365 5642802 1874701 00000

At most 13 06312 4580251 1505585 00000

At most 14 06183 3532980 1177082 00000

At most 15 05059 2521643 888038 00000

At most 16 04229 1781345 638761 00000

At most 17 03477 1204084 429153 00000

At most 18 03308 755525 258721 00000

At most 19 02723 333740 125180 00000



Max-Eigen Stat


None 08119 1754311 1262691 00000

At most 1 07484 1448984 1042928 00000

At most 2 06943 1244273 895584 00000

At most 3 06896 1228346 884120 00000

At most 4 06813 1200704 864224 00000

At most 5 06751 1180455 849650 00000

At most 6 06619 1138626 819543 00000

At most 7 06605 1134280 816415 00000

At most 8 06570 1123565 808703 00000

At most 9 06534 1112489 748375 00000

At most 10 06439 1084078 688121 00000

At most 11 06424 1079731 627522 00000

35

At most 12 06365 1062552 567052 00000

At most 13 06312 1047271 505999 00000

At most 14 06183 1011337 444972 00000

At most 15 05059 740298 383310 00000

At most 16 04229 577261 321183 00000

At most 17 03477 448558 258232 00001

At most 18 03308 421785 193870 00000

At most 19 02723 333740 125180 00000

Source Authors

36






0

10

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30

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50

60

70

80

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100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

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rce

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Horizon

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Pe

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)

Horizon

37





USA 75340 31220 52535 24920 32451 80425 16142 58582

Brazil 70609 08813 89311 04341 118017 31421 34896 70440

Russia 77612 125327 110425 34878 37666 32531 20684 95616

India 37554 88615 28643 68745 14462 45156 27108 20011

China 72605 55905 65828 98491 44992 74646 19369 79720

South Africa 97203 36750 72784 35206 31078 59433 25869 68574

Australia 11614 44655 02851 08205 109096 02585 32873 15055

Canada 73007 73293 50845 17185 57174 54735 08255 60655

EU 84055 25762 66141 26268 48995 68512 12978 68320

Indonesia 19769 24314 01169 80320 18449 16285 14550 05139

Japan 85308 40028 55534 22141 62552 85835 16891 70244

Malaysia 56649 70935 37736 31557 26228 67378 19406 37956

UK 53469 16542 64573 110048 19054 107249 55380 45530

DR Congo 29744 215520 39112 71369 09432 26191 07574 32377

Egypt 43495 37493 140244 17884 31158 27479 80075 60913

Ghana 03332 39604 21476 261490 10461 04486 12166 24795

Morocco 26742 12945 28298 04647 232156 27901 47621 48632

Nigeria 30411 05806 22706 64205 14887 130388 42022 25243

Tanzania 03455 10693 03545 11170 24621 31812 501363 06036

Tunisia 48028 35778 46245 06928 57070 25551 04778 106163



Total from BRICS 258380 315410 366990 241662 246216 243188 127926 334361

Total from Asia 349497 405125 299335 336134 204349 321832 118008 308685



38




USA 84417 27346 64937 08671 58633 45316 50364 08786

Brazil 62986 17990 52082 67154 42216 23105 79339 53891

Russia 80149 22871 85737 59520 44582 03436 72180 08594

India 24108 88781 32734 41954 80329 59152 35292 31134

China 57369 67788 51214 97239 36961 03302 48212 15927

South Africa 96491 23300 70515 22174 37526 16513 58827 15241

Australia 29237 67747 29516 62979 69457 03181 43946 24635

Canada 68897 31125 55227 47717 82931 07959 61205 05466

EU 71382 41920 40932 09740 82114 44444 71835 16233

Indonesia 45443 03361 37592 03145 24308 04855 20374 05870

Japan 67811 27701 61483 42867 46307 37472 64150 53856

Malaysia 57080 08193 56191 27331 61632 42365 26281 25684

UK 79705 08899 57763 09308 18636 75911 39259 30355

DR Congo 09940 314128 04962 51581 29301 07936 32248 94814

Egypt 33338 15688 113752 57598 34201 18514 40609 16733

Ghana 14299 25910 45405 243033 14637 60390 36649 10144

Morocco 29828 91510 32439 50298 136523 28312 64231 34121

Nigeria 16423 06604 31183 17516 07315 390801 09295 68504

Tunisia 40701 34480 50979 63742 67218 35759 117458 38775

Tanzania 30396 74657 25357 16435 25175 91275 28247 441238



Total from BRICS 224613 220729 292282 288040 241613 105508 293849 124787

Total from Asia 331961 218695 324952 272055 294119 150583 266489 141065



39




USA 09188 00959 09065 00856

Brazil 08344 01108 08742 00260

Russia 08388 02094 08924 00929

India 09000 -01139 08413 -00254

China 09102 01438 08912 00402

South Africa 09028 00416 09035 00097

Australia 07105 -02842 08673 -00439

Canada 08991 00946 08986 01122

EU 09121 01077 08971 00713

Indonesia 07591 -03108 08369 -02587

Japan 08998 01361 08803 00883

Malaysia 09000 00528 08364 00472

UK 08870 00649 08808 -00493

DR Congo 07845 -00328 06859 -00974

Egypt 08598 -00230 08862 -01441

Ghana 07385 -03746 07570 -01304

Morocco 07678 -00723 08635 01011

Nigeria 08696 -01538 06092 -02776

Tanzania 04986 -03598 05588 -00770


40




USA 918838 1116203 197365 906516 1080837 174321

Brazil 834405 1048823 214418 874223 922305 48081

Russia 838838 1301518 462681 892421 1076102 183681

India 900031 715701 -184330 841338 842608 01270

China 910213 1216863 306650 891159 966746 75587

South Africa 902797 982282 79485 903509 923706 20197

Australia 710525 395694 -314831 867260 798447 -68813

Canada 899143 1089583 190440 898639 1131561 232923

EU 912144 1134632 222487 897115 1036992 139877

Indonesia 759059 405570 -353488 836906 492962 -343944

Japan 899771 1184811 285039 880287 1054533 174246

Malaysia 899995 1001143 101148 836384 922360 85975

UK 887018 1011048 124029 880782 799256 -81526

DR Congo 784480 738784 -45696 685872 576096 -109776

Egypt 859756 838059 -21696 886248 665117 -221131

Ghana 738510 364252 -374258 756967 607614 -149354

Morocco 767844 666083 -101761 863477 1066309 202831

Nigeria 869612 638121 -231491 609199 351031 -258168

Tanzania 498637 239716 -258921 558762 535112 -23650


33



level Critical

value at 5

PP Test stat at

1st Diff

Critical value at 5


Australia -2087649 -3452358 -5511474 -3452764 I(1)

Brazil -151073 -3452358 -4815699 -3452764 I(1)

Canada -1688886 -3452358 -4919794 -3452764 I(1)

China -0761713 -3452358 -4666041 -3452764 I(1)

DRCongo -2701397 -3452358 -4969701 -3452764 I(1)

Egypt -1110372 -3452358 -4587926 -3452764 I(1)

EU -2479035 -3452358 -4796753 -3452764 I(1)

Ghana -1789434 -3452358 -4749838 -3452764 I(1)

India -0176913 -3452358 -5580811 -3452764 I(1)

Indonesia -1940294 -3452358 -7723706 -3452764 I(1)

Japan -27304 -3452358 -4666113 -3452764 I(1)

Malaysia -1798537 -3452358 -5140808 -3452764 I(1)

Morocco -3427262 -3452358 -5251978 -3452764 I(1)

Nigeria -1885798 -3452358 -6573952 -3452764 I(1)

Russia -2427019 -3452358 -4584745 -3452764 I(1)

Safrica -2459347 -3452358 -5061753 -3452764 I(1)

Tanzania -2080362 -3452358 -4639207 -3452764 I(1)

Tunisia -2521464 -3452358 -4922059 -3452764 I(1)

UK -292419 -3452358 -4914527 -3452764 I(1)



34


Panel 1 Trace test



None 08119 20372650 7605409 00000

At most 1 07484 18618330 6950496 00000

At most 2 06943 17169350 6409570 00000

At most 3 06896 15925080 5945066 00000

At most 4 06813 14696730 5486505 00000

At most 5 06751 13496030 5038266 00000

At most 6 06619 12315570 4597583 00000

At most 7 06605 11176950 4172519 00000

At most 8 06570 10042670 3749076 00000

At most 9 06534 8919101 3220692 00000

At most 10 06439 7806611 2731889 00000

At most 11 06424 6722533 2282979 00001

At most 12 06365 5642802 1874701 00000

At most 13 06312 4580251 1505585 00000

At most 14 06183 3532980 1177082 00000

At most 15 05059 2521643 888038 00000

At most 16 04229 1781345 638761 00000

At most 17 03477 1204084 429153 00000

At most 18 03308 755525 258721 00000

At most 19 02723 333740 125180 00000



Max-Eigen Stat


None 08119 1754311 1262691 00000

At most 1 07484 1448984 1042928 00000

At most 2 06943 1244273 895584 00000

At most 3 06896 1228346 884120 00000

At most 4 06813 1200704 864224 00000

At most 5 06751 1180455 849650 00000

At most 6 06619 1138626 819543 00000

At most 7 06605 1134280 816415 00000

At most 8 06570 1123565 808703 00000

At most 9 06534 1112489 748375 00000

At most 10 06439 1084078 688121 00000

At most 11 06424 1079731 627522 00000

35

At most 12 06365 1062552 567052 00000

At most 13 06312 1047271 505999 00000

At most 14 06183 1011337 444972 00000

At most 15 05059 740298 383310 00000

At most 16 04229 577261 321183 00000

At most 17 03477 448558 258232 00001

At most 18 03308 421785 193870 00000

At most 19 02723 333740 125180 00000

Source Authors

36






0

10

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100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

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rce

nta

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Horizon

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Pe

rce

nta

ge (

)

Horizon

37





USA 75340 31220 52535 24920 32451 80425 16142 58582

Brazil 70609 08813 89311 04341 118017 31421 34896 70440

Russia 77612 125327 110425 34878 37666 32531 20684 95616

India 37554 88615 28643 68745 14462 45156 27108 20011

China 72605 55905 65828 98491 44992 74646 19369 79720

South Africa 97203 36750 72784 35206 31078 59433 25869 68574

Australia 11614 44655 02851 08205 109096 02585 32873 15055

Canada 73007 73293 50845 17185 57174 54735 08255 60655

EU 84055 25762 66141 26268 48995 68512 12978 68320

Indonesia 19769 24314 01169 80320 18449 16285 14550 05139

Japan 85308 40028 55534 22141 62552 85835 16891 70244

Malaysia 56649 70935 37736 31557 26228 67378 19406 37956

UK 53469 16542 64573 110048 19054 107249 55380 45530

DR Congo 29744 215520 39112 71369 09432 26191 07574 32377

Egypt 43495 37493 140244 17884 31158 27479 80075 60913

Ghana 03332 39604 21476 261490 10461 04486 12166 24795

Morocco 26742 12945 28298 04647 232156 27901 47621 48632

Nigeria 30411 05806 22706 64205 14887 130388 42022 25243

Tanzania 03455 10693 03545 11170 24621 31812 501363 06036

Tunisia 48028 35778 46245 06928 57070 25551 04778 106163



Total from BRICS 258380 315410 366990 241662 246216 243188 127926 334361

Total from Asia 349497 405125 299335 336134 204349 321832 118008 308685



38




USA 84417 27346 64937 08671 58633 45316 50364 08786

Brazil 62986 17990 52082 67154 42216 23105 79339 53891

Russia 80149 22871 85737 59520 44582 03436 72180 08594

India 24108 88781 32734 41954 80329 59152 35292 31134

China 57369 67788 51214 97239 36961 03302 48212 15927

South Africa 96491 23300 70515 22174 37526 16513 58827 15241

Australia 29237 67747 29516 62979 69457 03181 43946 24635

Canada 68897 31125 55227 47717 82931 07959 61205 05466

EU 71382 41920 40932 09740 82114 44444 71835 16233

Indonesia 45443 03361 37592 03145 24308 04855 20374 05870

Japan 67811 27701 61483 42867 46307 37472 64150 53856

Malaysia 57080 08193 56191 27331 61632 42365 26281 25684

UK 79705 08899 57763 09308 18636 75911 39259 30355

DR Congo 09940 314128 04962 51581 29301 07936 32248 94814

Egypt 33338 15688 113752 57598 34201 18514 40609 16733

Ghana 14299 25910 45405 243033 14637 60390 36649 10144

Morocco 29828 91510 32439 50298 136523 28312 64231 34121

Nigeria 16423 06604 31183 17516 07315 390801 09295 68504

Tunisia 40701 34480 50979 63742 67218 35759 117458 38775

Tanzania 30396 74657 25357 16435 25175 91275 28247 441238



Total from BRICS 224613 220729 292282 288040 241613 105508 293849 124787

Total from Asia 331961 218695 324952 272055 294119 150583 266489 141065



39




USA 09188 00959 09065 00856

Brazil 08344 01108 08742 00260

Russia 08388 02094 08924 00929

India 09000 -01139 08413 -00254

China 09102 01438 08912 00402

South Africa 09028 00416 09035 00097

Australia 07105 -02842 08673 -00439

Canada 08991 00946 08986 01122

EU 09121 01077 08971 00713

Indonesia 07591 -03108 08369 -02587

Japan 08998 01361 08803 00883

Malaysia 09000 00528 08364 00472

UK 08870 00649 08808 -00493

DR Congo 07845 -00328 06859 -00974

Egypt 08598 -00230 08862 -01441

Ghana 07385 -03746 07570 -01304

Morocco 07678 -00723 08635 01011

Nigeria 08696 -01538 06092 -02776

Tanzania 04986 -03598 05588 -00770


40




USA 918838 1116203 197365 906516 1080837 174321

Brazil 834405 1048823 214418 874223 922305 48081

Russia 838838 1301518 462681 892421 1076102 183681

India 900031 715701 -184330 841338 842608 01270

China 910213 1216863 306650 891159 966746 75587

South Africa 902797 982282 79485 903509 923706 20197

Australia 710525 395694 -314831 867260 798447 -68813

Canada 899143 1089583 190440 898639 1131561 232923

EU 912144 1134632 222487 897115 1036992 139877

Indonesia 759059 405570 -353488 836906 492962 -343944

Japan 899771 1184811 285039 880287 1054533 174246

Malaysia 899995 1001143 101148 836384 922360 85975

UK 887018 1011048 124029 880782 799256 -81526

DR Congo 784480 738784 -45696 685872 576096 -109776

Egypt 859756 838059 -21696 886248 665117 -221131

Ghana 738510 364252 -374258 756967 607614 -149354

Morocco 767844 666083 -101761 863477 1066309 202831

Nigeria 869612 638121 -231491 609199 351031 -258168

Tanzania 498637 239716 -258921 558762 535112 -23650


34


Panel 1 Trace test



None 08119 20372650 7605409 00000

At most 1 07484 18618330 6950496 00000

At most 2 06943 17169350 6409570 00000

At most 3 06896 15925080 5945066 00000

At most 4 06813 14696730 5486505 00000

At most 5 06751 13496030 5038266 00000

At most 6 06619 12315570 4597583 00000

At most 7 06605 11176950 4172519 00000

At most 8 06570 10042670 3749076 00000

At most 9 06534 8919101 3220692 00000

At most 10 06439 7806611 2731889 00000

At most 11 06424 6722533 2282979 00001

At most 12 06365 5642802 1874701 00000

At most 13 06312 4580251 1505585 00000

At most 14 06183 3532980 1177082 00000

At most 15 05059 2521643 888038 00000

At most 16 04229 1781345 638761 00000

At most 17 03477 1204084 429153 00000

At most 18 03308 755525 258721 00000

At most 19 02723 333740 125180 00000



Max-Eigen Stat


None 08119 1754311 1262691 00000

At most 1 07484 1448984 1042928 00000

At most 2 06943 1244273 895584 00000

At most 3 06896 1228346 884120 00000

At most 4 06813 1200704 864224 00000

At most 5 06751 1180455 849650 00000

At most 6 06619 1138626 819543 00000

At most 7 06605 1134280 816415 00000

At most 8 06570 1123565 808703 00000

At most 9 06534 1112489 748375 00000

At most 10 06439 1084078 688121 00000

At most 11 06424 1079731 627522 00000

35

At most 12 06365 1062552 567052 00000

At most 13 06312 1047271 505999 00000

At most 14 06183 1011337 444972 00000

At most 15 05059 740298 383310 00000

At most 16 04229 577261 321183 00000

At most 17 03477 448558 258232 00001

At most 18 03308 421785 193870 00000

At most 19 02723 333740 125180 00000

Source Authors

36






0

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

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50

60

70

80

90

100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Pe

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nta

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)

Horizon

37





USA 75340 31220 52535 24920 32451 80425 16142 58582

Brazil 70609 08813 89311 04341 118017 31421 34896 70440

Russia 77612 125327 110425 34878 37666 32531 20684 95616

India 37554 88615 28643 68745 14462 45156 27108 20011

China 72605 55905 65828 98491 44992 74646 19369 79720

South Africa 97203 36750 72784 35206 31078 59433 25869 68574

Australia 11614 44655 02851 08205 109096 02585 32873 15055

Canada 73007 73293 50845 17185 57174 54735 08255 60655

EU 84055 25762 66141 26268 48995 68512 12978 68320

Indonesia 19769 24314 01169 80320 18449 16285 14550 05139

Japan 85308 40028 55534 22141 62552 85835 16891 70244

Malaysia 56649 70935 37736 31557 26228 67378 19406 37956

UK 53469 16542 64573 110048 19054 107249 55380 45530

DR Congo 29744 215520 39112 71369 09432 26191 07574 32377

Egypt 43495 37493 140244 17884 31158 27479 80075 60913

Ghana 03332 39604 21476 261490 10461 04486 12166 24795

Morocco 26742 12945 28298 04647 232156 27901 47621 48632

Nigeria 30411 05806 22706 64205 14887 130388 42022 25243

Tanzania 03455 10693 03545 11170 24621 31812 501363 06036

Tunisia 48028 35778 46245 06928 57070 25551 04778 106163



Total from BRICS 258380 315410 366990 241662 246216 243188 127926 334361

Total from Asia 349497 405125 299335 336134 204349 321832 118008 308685



38




USA 84417 27346 64937 08671 58633 45316 50364 08786

Brazil 62986 17990 52082 67154 42216 23105 79339 53891

Russia 80149 22871 85737 59520 44582 03436 72180 08594

India 24108 88781 32734 41954 80329 59152 35292 31134

China 57369 67788 51214 97239 36961 03302 48212 15927

South Africa 96491 23300 70515 22174 37526 16513 58827 15241

Australia 29237 67747 29516 62979 69457 03181 43946 24635

Canada 68897 31125 55227 47717 82931 07959 61205 05466

EU 71382 41920 40932 09740 82114 44444 71835 16233

Indonesia 45443 03361 37592 03145 24308 04855 20374 05870

Japan 67811 27701 61483 42867 46307 37472 64150 53856

Malaysia 57080 08193 56191 27331 61632 42365 26281 25684

UK 79705 08899 57763 09308 18636 75911 39259 30355

DR Congo 09940 314128 04962 51581 29301 07936 32248 94814

Egypt 33338 15688 113752 57598 34201 18514 40609 16733

Ghana 14299 25910 45405 243033 14637 60390 36649 10144

Morocco 29828 91510 32439 50298 136523 28312 64231 34121

Nigeria 16423 06604 31183 17516 07315 390801 09295 68504

Tunisia 40701 34480 50979 63742 67218 35759 117458 38775

Tanzania 30396 74657 25357 16435 25175 91275 28247 441238



Total from BRICS 224613 220729 292282 288040 241613 105508 293849 124787

Total from Asia 331961 218695 324952 272055 294119 150583 266489 141065



39




USA 09188 00959 09065 00856

Brazil 08344 01108 08742 00260

Russia 08388 02094 08924 00929

India 09000 -01139 08413 -00254

China 09102 01438 08912 00402

South Africa 09028 00416 09035 00097

Australia 07105 -02842 08673 -00439

Canada 08991 00946 08986 01122

EU 09121 01077 08971 00713

Indonesia 07591 -03108 08369 -02587

Japan 08998 01361 08803 00883

Malaysia 09000 00528 08364 00472

UK 08870 00649 08808 -00493

DR Congo 07845 -00328 06859 -00974

Egypt 08598 -00230 08862 -01441

Ghana 07385 -03746 07570 -01304

Morocco 07678 -00723 08635 01011

Nigeria 08696 -01538 06092 -02776

Tanzania 04986 -03598 05588 -00770


40




USA 918838 1116203 197365 906516 1080837 174321

Brazil 834405 1048823 214418 874223 922305 48081

Russia 838838 1301518 462681 892421 1076102 183681

India 900031 715701 -184330 841338 842608 01270

China 910213 1216863 306650 891159 966746 75587

South Africa 902797 982282 79485 903509 923706 20197

Australia 710525 395694 -314831 867260 798447 -68813

Canada 899143 1089583 190440 898639 1131561 232923

EU 912144 1134632 222487 897115 1036992 139877

Indonesia 759059 405570 -353488 836906 492962 -343944

Japan 899771 1184811 285039 880287 1054533 174246

Malaysia 899995 1001143 101148 836384 922360 85975

UK 887018 1011048 124029 880782 799256 -81526

DR Congo 784480 738784 -45696 685872 576096 -109776

Egypt 859756 838059 -21696 886248 665117 -221131

Ghana 738510 364252 -374258 756967 607614 -149354

Morocco 767844 666083 -101761 863477 1066309 202831

Nigeria 869612 638121 -231491 609199 351031 -258168

Tanzania 498637 239716 -258921 558762 535112 -23650


35

At most 12 06365 1062552 567052 00000

At most 13 06312 1047271 505999 00000

At most 14 06183 1011337 444972 00000

At most 15 05059 740298 383310 00000

At most 16 04229 577261 321183 00000

At most 17 03477 448558 258232 00001

At most 18 03308 421785 193870 00000

At most 19 02723 333740 125180 00000

Source Authors

36






0

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

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Horizon

0

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50

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70

80

90

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

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Horizon

37





USA 75340 31220 52535 24920 32451 80425 16142 58582

Brazil 70609 08813 89311 04341 118017 31421 34896 70440

Russia 77612 125327 110425 34878 37666 32531 20684 95616

India 37554 88615 28643 68745 14462 45156 27108 20011

China 72605 55905 65828 98491 44992 74646 19369 79720

South Africa 97203 36750 72784 35206 31078 59433 25869 68574

Australia 11614 44655 02851 08205 109096 02585 32873 15055

Canada 73007 73293 50845 17185 57174 54735 08255 60655

EU 84055 25762 66141 26268 48995 68512 12978 68320

Indonesia 19769 24314 01169 80320 18449 16285 14550 05139

Japan 85308 40028 55534 22141 62552 85835 16891 70244

Malaysia 56649 70935 37736 31557 26228 67378 19406 37956

UK 53469 16542 64573 110048 19054 107249 55380 45530

DR Congo 29744 215520 39112 71369 09432 26191 07574 32377

Egypt 43495 37493 140244 17884 31158 27479 80075 60913

Ghana 03332 39604 21476 261490 10461 04486 12166 24795

Morocco 26742 12945 28298 04647 232156 27901 47621 48632

Nigeria 30411 05806 22706 64205 14887 130388 42022 25243

Tanzania 03455 10693 03545 11170 24621 31812 501363 06036

Tunisia 48028 35778 46245 06928 57070 25551 04778 106163



Total from BRICS 258380 315410 366990 241662 246216 243188 127926 334361

Total from Asia 349497 405125 299335 336134 204349 321832 118008 308685



38




USA 84417 27346 64937 08671 58633 45316 50364 08786

Brazil 62986 17990 52082 67154 42216 23105 79339 53891

Russia 80149 22871 85737 59520 44582 03436 72180 08594

India 24108 88781 32734 41954 80329 59152 35292 31134

China 57369 67788 51214 97239 36961 03302 48212 15927

South Africa 96491 23300 70515 22174 37526 16513 58827 15241

Australia 29237 67747 29516 62979 69457 03181 43946 24635

Canada 68897 31125 55227 47717 82931 07959 61205 05466

EU 71382 41920 40932 09740 82114 44444 71835 16233

Indonesia 45443 03361 37592 03145 24308 04855 20374 05870

Japan 67811 27701 61483 42867 46307 37472 64150 53856

Malaysia 57080 08193 56191 27331 61632 42365 26281 25684

UK 79705 08899 57763 09308 18636 75911 39259 30355

DR Congo 09940 314128 04962 51581 29301 07936 32248 94814

Egypt 33338 15688 113752 57598 34201 18514 40609 16733

Ghana 14299 25910 45405 243033 14637 60390 36649 10144

Morocco 29828 91510 32439 50298 136523 28312 64231 34121

Nigeria 16423 06604 31183 17516 07315 390801 09295 68504

Tunisia 40701 34480 50979 63742 67218 35759 117458 38775

Tanzania 30396 74657 25357 16435 25175 91275 28247 441238



Total from BRICS 224613 220729 292282 288040 241613 105508 293849 124787

Total from Asia 331961 218695 324952 272055 294119 150583 266489 141065



39




USA 09188 00959 09065 00856

Brazil 08344 01108 08742 00260

Russia 08388 02094 08924 00929

India 09000 -01139 08413 -00254

China 09102 01438 08912 00402

South Africa 09028 00416 09035 00097

Australia 07105 -02842 08673 -00439

Canada 08991 00946 08986 01122

EU 09121 01077 08971 00713

Indonesia 07591 -03108 08369 -02587

Japan 08998 01361 08803 00883

Malaysia 09000 00528 08364 00472

UK 08870 00649 08808 -00493

DR Congo 07845 -00328 06859 -00974

Egypt 08598 -00230 08862 -01441

Ghana 07385 -03746 07570 -01304

Morocco 07678 -00723 08635 01011

Nigeria 08696 -01538 06092 -02776

Tanzania 04986 -03598 05588 -00770


40




USA 918838 1116203 197365 906516 1080837 174321

Brazil 834405 1048823 214418 874223 922305 48081

Russia 838838 1301518 462681 892421 1076102 183681

India 900031 715701 -184330 841338 842608 01270

China 910213 1216863 306650 891159 966746 75587

South Africa 902797 982282 79485 903509 923706 20197

Australia 710525 395694 -314831 867260 798447 -68813

Canada 899143 1089583 190440 898639 1131561 232923

EU 912144 1134632 222487 897115 1036992 139877

Indonesia 759059 405570 -353488 836906 492962 -343944

Japan 899771 1184811 285039 880287 1054533 174246

Malaysia 899995 1001143 101148 836384 922360 85975

UK 887018 1011048 124029 880782 799256 -81526

DR Congo 784480 738784 -45696 685872 576096 -109776

Egypt 859756 838059 -21696 886248 665117 -221131

Ghana 738510 364252 -374258 756967 607614 -149354

Morocco 767844 666083 -101761 863477 1066309 202831

Nigeria 869612 638121 -231491 609199 351031 -258168

Tanzania 498637 239716 -258921 558762 535112 -23650


36






0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Pe

rce

nta

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5)

Horizon

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Pe

rce

nta

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)

Horizon

37





USA 75340 31220 52535 24920 32451 80425 16142 58582

Brazil 70609 08813 89311 04341 118017 31421 34896 70440

Russia 77612 125327 110425 34878 37666 32531 20684 95616

India 37554 88615 28643 68745 14462 45156 27108 20011

China 72605 55905 65828 98491 44992 74646 19369 79720

South Africa 97203 36750 72784 35206 31078 59433 25869 68574

Australia 11614 44655 02851 08205 109096 02585 32873 15055

Canada 73007 73293 50845 17185 57174 54735 08255 60655

EU 84055 25762 66141 26268 48995 68512 12978 68320

Indonesia 19769 24314 01169 80320 18449 16285 14550 05139

Japan 85308 40028 55534 22141 62552 85835 16891 70244

Malaysia 56649 70935 37736 31557 26228 67378 19406 37956

UK 53469 16542 64573 110048 19054 107249 55380 45530

DR Congo 29744 215520 39112 71369 09432 26191 07574 32377

Egypt 43495 37493 140244 17884 31158 27479 80075 60913

Ghana 03332 39604 21476 261490 10461 04486 12166 24795

Morocco 26742 12945 28298 04647 232156 27901 47621 48632

Nigeria 30411 05806 22706 64205 14887 130388 42022 25243

Tanzania 03455 10693 03545 11170 24621 31812 501363 06036

Tunisia 48028 35778 46245 06928 57070 25551 04778 106163



Total from BRICS 258380 315410 366990 241662 246216 243188 127926 334361

Total from Asia 349497 405125 299335 336134 204349 321832 118008 308685



38




USA 84417 27346 64937 08671 58633 45316 50364 08786

Brazil 62986 17990 52082 67154 42216 23105 79339 53891

Russia 80149 22871 85737 59520 44582 03436 72180 08594

India 24108 88781 32734 41954 80329 59152 35292 31134

China 57369 67788 51214 97239 36961 03302 48212 15927

South Africa 96491 23300 70515 22174 37526 16513 58827 15241

Australia 29237 67747 29516 62979 69457 03181 43946 24635

Canada 68897 31125 55227 47717 82931 07959 61205 05466

EU 71382 41920 40932 09740 82114 44444 71835 16233

Indonesia 45443 03361 37592 03145 24308 04855 20374 05870

Japan 67811 27701 61483 42867 46307 37472 64150 53856

Malaysia 57080 08193 56191 27331 61632 42365 26281 25684

UK 79705 08899 57763 09308 18636 75911 39259 30355

DR Congo 09940 314128 04962 51581 29301 07936 32248 94814

Egypt 33338 15688 113752 57598 34201 18514 40609 16733

Ghana 14299 25910 45405 243033 14637 60390 36649 10144

Morocco 29828 91510 32439 50298 136523 28312 64231 34121

Nigeria 16423 06604 31183 17516 07315 390801 09295 68504

Tunisia 40701 34480 50979 63742 67218 35759 117458 38775

Tanzania 30396 74657 25357 16435 25175 91275 28247 441238



Total from BRICS 224613 220729 292282 288040 241613 105508 293849 124787

Total from Asia 331961 218695 324952 272055 294119 150583 266489 141065



39




USA 09188 00959 09065 00856

Brazil 08344 01108 08742 00260

Russia 08388 02094 08924 00929

India 09000 -01139 08413 -00254

China 09102 01438 08912 00402

South Africa 09028 00416 09035 00097

Australia 07105 -02842 08673 -00439

Canada 08991 00946 08986 01122

EU 09121 01077 08971 00713

Indonesia 07591 -03108 08369 -02587

Japan 08998 01361 08803 00883

Malaysia 09000 00528 08364 00472

UK 08870 00649 08808 -00493

DR Congo 07845 -00328 06859 -00974

Egypt 08598 -00230 08862 -01441

Ghana 07385 -03746 07570 -01304

Morocco 07678 -00723 08635 01011

Nigeria 08696 -01538 06092 -02776

Tanzania 04986 -03598 05588 -00770


40




USA 918838 1116203 197365 906516 1080837 174321

Brazil 834405 1048823 214418 874223 922305 48081

Russia 838838 1301518 462681 892421 1076102 183681

India 900031 715701 -184330 841338 842608 01270

China 910213 1216863 306650 891159 966746 75587

South Africa 902797 982282 79485 903509 923706 20197

Australia 710525 395694 -314831 867260 798447 -68813

Canada 899143 1089583 190440 898639 1131561 232923

EU 912144 1134632 222487 897115 1036992 139877

Indonesia 759059 405570 -353488 836906 492962 -343944

Japan 899771 1184811 285039 880287 1054533 174246

Malaysia 899995 1001143 101148 836384 922360 85975

UK 887018 1011048 124029 880782 799256 -81526

DR Congo 784480 738784 -45696 685872 576096 -109776

Egypt 859756 838059 -21696 886248 665117 -221131

Ghana 738510 364252 -374258 756967 607614 -149354

Morocco 767844 666083 -101761 863477 1066309 202831

Nigeria 869612 638121 -231491 609199 351031 -258168

Tanzania 498637 239716 -258921 558762 535112 -23650


37





USA 75340 31220 52535 24920 32451 80425 16142 58582

Brazil 70609 08813 89311 04341 118017 31421 34896 70440

Russia 77612 125327 110425 34878 37666 32531 20684 95616

India 37554 88615 28643 68745 14462 45156 27108 20011

China 72605 55905 65828 98491 44992 74646 19369 79720

South Africa 97203 36750 72784 35206 31078 59433 25869 68574

Australia 11614 44655 02851 08205 109096 02585 32873 15055

Canada 73007 73293 50845 17185 57174 54735 08255 60655

EU 84055 25762 66141 26268 48995 68512 12978 68320

Indonesia 19769 24314 01169 80320 18449 16285 14550 05139

Japan 85308 40028 55534 22141 62552 85835 16891 70244

Malaysia 56649 70935 37736 31557 26228 67378 19406 37956

UK 53469 16542 64573 110048 19054 107249 55380 45530

DR Congo 29744 215520 39112 71369 09432 26191 07574 32377

Egypt 43495 37493 140244 17884 31158 27479 80075 60913

Ghana 03332 39604 21476 261490 10461 04486 12166 24795

Morocco 26742 12945 28298 04647 232156 27901 47621 48632

Nigeria 30411 05806 22706 64205 14887 130388 42022 25243

Tanzania 03455 10693 03545 11170 24621 31812 501363 06036

Tunisia 48028 35778 46245 06928 57070 25551 04778 106163



Total from BRICS 258380 315410 366990 241662 246216 243188 127926 334361

Total from Asia 349497 405125 299335 336134 204349 321832 118008 308685



38




USA 84417 27346 64937 08671 58633 45316 50364 08786

Brazil 62986 17990 52082 67154 42216 23105 79339 53891

Russia 80149 22871 85737 59520 44582 03436 72180 08594

India 24108 88781 32734 41954 80329 59152 35292 31134

China 57369 67788 51214 97239 36961 03302 48212 15927

South Africa 96491 23300 70515 22174 37526 16513 58827 15241

Australia 29237 67747 29516 62979 69457 03181 43946 24635

Canada 68897 31125 55227 47717 82931 07959 61205 05466

EU 71382 41920 40932 09740 82114 44444 71835 16233

Indonesia 45443 03361 37592 03145 24308 04855 20374 05870

Japan 67811 27701 61483 42867 46307 37472 64150 53856

Malaysia 57080 08193 56191 27331 61632 42365 26281 25684

UK 79705 08899 57763 09308 18636 75911 39259 30355

DR Congo 09940 314128 04962 51581 29301 07936 32248 94814

Egypt 33338 15688 113752 57598 34201 18514 40609 16733

Ghana 14299 25910 45405 243033 14637 60390 36649 10144

Morocco 29828 91510 32439 50298 136523 28312 64231 34121

Nigeria 16423 06604 31183 17516 07315 390801 09295 68504

Tunisia 40701 34480 50979 63742 67218 35759 117458 38775

Tanzania 30396 74657 25357 16435 25175 91275 28247 441238



Total from BRICS 224613 220729 292282 288040 241613 105508 293849 124787

Total from Asia 331961 218695 324952 272055 294119 150583 266489 141065



39




USA 09188 00959 09065 00856

Brazil 08344 01108 08742 00260

Russia 08388 02094 08924 00929

India 09000 -01139 08413 -00254

China 09102 01438 08912 00402

South Africa 09028 00416 09035 00097

Australia 07105 -02842 08673 -00439

Canada 08991 00946 08986 01122

EU 09121 01077 08971 00713

Indonesia 07591 -03108 08369 -02587

Japan 08998 01361 08803 00883

Malaysia 09000 00528 08364 00472

UK 08870 00649 08808 -00493

DR Congo 07845 -00328 06859 -00974

Egypt 08598 -00230 08862 -01441

Ghana 07385 -03746 07570 -01304

Morocco 07678 -00723 08635 01011

Nigeria 08696 -01538 06092 -02776

Tanzania 04986 -03598 05588 -00770


40




USA 918838 1116203 197365 906516 1080837 174321

Brazil 834405 1048823 214418 874223 922305 48081

Russia 838838 1301518 462681 892421 1076102 183681

India 900031 715701 -184330 841338 842608 01270

China 910213 1216863 306650 891159 966746 75587

South Africa 902797 982282 79485 903509 923706 20197

Australia 710525 395694 -314831 867260 798447 -68813

Canada 899143 1089583 190440 898639 1131561 232923

EU 912144 1134632 222487 897115 1036992 139877

Indonesia 759059 405570 -353488 836906 492962 -343944

Japan 899771 1184811 285039 880287 1054533 174246

Malaysia 899995 1001143 101148 836384 922360 85975

UK 887018 1011048 124029 880782 799256 -81526

DR Congo 784480 738784 -45696 685872 576096 -109776

Egypt 859756 838059 -21696 886248 665117 -221131

Ghana 738510 364252 -374258 756967 607614 -149354

Morocco 767844 666083 -101761 863477 1066309 202831

Nigeria 869612 638121 -231491 609199 351031 -258168

Tanzania 498637 239716 -258921 558762 535112 -23650


38




USA 84417 27346 64937 08671 58633 45316 50364 08786

Brazil 62986 17990 52082 67154 42216 23105 79339 53891

Russia 80149 22871 85737 59520 44582 03436 72180 08594

India 24108 88781 32734 41954 80329 59152 35292 31134

China 57369 67788 51214 97239 36961 03302 48212 15927

South Africa 96491 23300 70515 22174 37526 16513 58827 15241

Australia 29237 67747 29516 62979 69457 03181 43946 24635

Canada 68897 31125 55227 47717 82931 07959 61205 05466

EU 71382 41920 40932 09740 82114 44444 71835 16233

Indonesia 45443 03361 37592 03145 24308 04855 20374 05870

Japan 67811 27701 61483 42867 46307 37472 64150 53856

Malaysia 57080 08193 56191 27331 61632 42365 26281 25684

UK 79705 08899 57763 09308 18636 75911 39259 30355

DR Congo 09940 314128 04962 51581 29301 07936 32248 94814

Egypt 33338 15688 113752 57598 34201 18514 40609 16733

Ghana 14299 25910 45405 243033 14637 60390 36649 10144

Morocco 29828 91510 32439 50298 136523 28312 64231 34121

Nigeria 16423 06604 31183 17516 07315 390801 09295 68504

Tunisia 40701 34480 50979 63742 67218 35759 117458 38775

Tanzania 30396 74657 25357 16435 25175 91275 28247 441238



Total from BRICS 224613 220729 292282 288040 241613 105508 293849 124787

Total from Asia 331961 218695 324952 272055 294119 150583 266489 141065



39




USA 09188 00959 09065 00856

Brazil 08344 01108 08742 00260

Russia 08388 02094 08924 00929

India 09000 -01139 08413 -00254

China 09102 01438 08912 00402

South Africa 09028 00416 09035 00097

Australia 07105 -02842 08673 -00439

Canada 08991 00946 08986 01122

EU 09121 01077 08971 00713

Indonesia 07591 -03108 08369 -02587

Japan 08998 01361 08803 00883

Malaysia 09000 00528 08364 00472

UK 08870 00649 08808 -00493

DR Congo 07845 -00328 06859 -00974

Egypt 08598 -00230 08862 -01441

Ghana 07385 -03746 07570 -01304

Morocco 07678 -00723 08635 01011

Nigeria 08696 -01538 06092 -02776

Tanzania 04986 -03598 05588 -00770


40




USA 918838 1116203 197365 906516 1080837 174321

Brazil 834405 1048823 214418 874223 922305 48081

Russia 838838 1301518 462681 892421 1076102 183681

India 900031 715701 -184330 841338 842608 01270

China 910213 1216863 306650 891159 966746 75587

South Africa 902797 982282 79485 903509 923706 20197

Australia 710525 395694 -314831 867260 798447 -68813

Canada 899143 1089583 190440 898639 1131561 232923

EU 912144 1134632 222487 897115 1036992 139877

Indonesia 759059 405570 -353488 836906 492962 -343944

Japan 899771 1184811 285039 880287 1054533 174246

Malaysia 899995 1001143 101148 836384 922360 85975

UK 887018 1011048 124029 880782 799256 -81526

DR Congo 784480 738784 -45696 685872 576096 -109776

Egypt 859756 838059 -21696 886248 665117 -221131

Ghana 738510 364252 -374258 756967 607614 -149354

Morocco 767844 666083 -101761 863477 1066309 202831

Nigeria 869612 638121 -231491 609199 351031 -258168

Tanzania 498637 239716 -258921 558762 535112 -23650


39




USA 09188 00959 09065 00856

Brazil 08344 01108 08742 00260

Russia 08388 02094 08924 00929

India 09000 -01139 08413 -00254

China 09102 01438 08912 00402

South Africa 09028 00416 09035 00097

Australia 07105 -02842 08673 -00439

Canada 08991 00946 08986 01122

EU 09121 01077 08971 00713

Indonesia 07591 -03108 08369 -02587

Japan 08998 01361 08803 00883

Malaysia 09000 00528 08364 00472

UK 08870 00649 08808 -00493

DR Congo 07845 -00328 06859 -00974

Egypt 08598 -00230 08862 -01441

Ghana 07385 -03746 07570 -01304

Morocco 07678 -00723 08635 01011

Nigeria 08696 -01538 06092 -02776

Tanzania 04986 -03598 05588 -00770


40




USA 918838 1116203 197365 906516 1080837 174321

Brazil 834405 1048823 214418 874223 922305 48081

Russia 838838 1301518 462681 892421 1076102 183681

India 900031 715701 -184330 841338 842608 01270

China 910213 1216863 306650 891159 966746 75587

South Africa 902797 982282 79485 903509 923706 20197

Australia 710525 395694 -314831 867260 798447 -68813

Canada 899143 1089583 190440 898639 1131561 232923

EU 912144 1134632 222487 897115 1036992 139877

Indonesia 759059 405570 -353488 836906 492962 -343944

Japan 899771 1184811 285039 880287 1054533 174246

Malaysia 899995 1001143 101148 836384 922360 85975

UK 887018 1011048 124029 880782 799256 -81526

DR Congo 784480 738784 -45696 685872 576096 -109776

Egypt 859756 838059 -21696 886248 665117 -221131

Ghana 738510 364252 -374258 756967 607614 -149354

Morocco 767844 666083 -101761 863477 1066309 202831

Nigeria 869612 638121 -231491 609199 351031 -258168

Tanzania 498637 239716 -258921 558762 535112 -23650


40




USA 918838 1116203 197365 906516 1080837 174321

Brazil 834405 1048823 214418 874223 922305 48081

Russia 838838 1301518 462681 892421 1076102 183681

India 900031 715701 -184330 841338 842608 01270

China 910213 1216863 306650 891159 966746 75587

South Africa 902797 982282 79485 903509 923706 20197

Australia 710525 395694 -314831 867260 798447 -68813

Canada 899143 1089583 190440 898639 1131561 232923

EU 912144 1134632 222487 897115 1036992 139877

Indonesia 759059 405570 -353488 836906 492962 -343944

Japan 899771 1184811 285039 880287 1054533 174246

Malaysia 899995 1001143 101148 836384 922360 85975

UK 887018 1011048 124029 880782 799256 -81526

DR Congo 784480 738784 -45696 685872 576096 -109776

Egypt 859756 838059 -21696 886248 665117 -221131

Ghana 738510 364252 -374258 756967 607614 -149354

Morocco 767844 666083 -101761 863477 1066309 202831

Nigeria 869612 638121 -231491 609199 351031 -258168

Tanzania 498637 239716 -258921 558762 535112 -23650


Trade Shock Transmission: A Study of Selected African ... · Jonathan E. Ogbuabor PhD Department of...

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Transcript of Trade Shock Transmission: A Study of Selected African ... · Jonathan E. Ogbuabor PhD Department of...