TRADE PLANNING WITH SIMPLE SUPPORT &...
Transcript of TRADE PLANNING WITH SIMPLE SUPPORT &...
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TRADE PLANNING WITH SIMPLE SUPPORT & RESISTANCEPresented by Nabil Mattar
FX Technical Analyst
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DISCLAIMER
IG Asia Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No. 20051002K) holds a capital markets services licence from the Monetary Authority of Singapore for dealing in securities and leveraged foreign exchange trading and is an exempt financial adviser. It is also licensed by International Enterprise Singapore to trade CFDs on commodities.
CFDs are leveraged products. CFD trading may not be suitable for everyone and can result in losses that exceed your initial investment, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks and costs involved by reading the Risk Disclosure Statement at www.igmarkets.com.sg. Trading in CFDs may not be suitable for many members of the public. You should carefully consider whether such trading is appropriate for you in the light of your personal circumstances. In considering whether to trade, please be aware of the margin requirements, commissions, fees and other charges for which you will be liable. These charges will affect your net profit (if any) or increase your loss.
IG provides an execution-only service. The information in this presentation is intended for general circulation. It does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, as you deem fit.
IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of this information and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. This presentation must not be reproduced or further distributed.
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WHY
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ABullish Flag Breakout
Consolidation
B
BOXING the markets
Let the CHARTS be your GUIDE
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TAKEAWAYS
OPEN YOUR EYES TO SUPPORT & RESISTANCE
Experienced Traders (> 6 months)Experienced Traders (> 6 months)Experienced Traders (> 6 months)Experienced Traders (> 6 months)
• Lost in a myriad of indicators
– Indicator point UP – BUY
– Indicator point DOWN - SELL
• Confused by news and direction
– Mucked around all the time
• Following a strategy with no success
New TradersNew TradersNew TradersNew Traders
• No Trading Strategy
• Learning how to trade
• Unsure where to start
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TRADE PLANNING
BE A DETECTIVE, STACK THE ODDS
Crime Scene InvestigationCrime Scene InvestigationCrime Scene InvestigationCrime Scene Investigation
• Thumbprints
• Physical Evidence
• DNA
• Vehicle Number
• Autopsy
Source: www.gograph.com
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TRADE PLANNING
BE A DETECTIVE, STACK THE ODDS
Trade Planning Trade Planning Trade Planning Trade Planning 1) Establishing a BIAS
2) Finding out where the Buyers and Sellers are
PrimaryPrimaryPrimaryPrimary• Visual S&R
• Psychological Levels
• Trend Lines
• Chart Patterns
• CLOCK
• Multiple Time-Frame Analysis
• Price Action
SecondarySecondarySecondarySecondary• Pivot Points
• Fibonacci Levels
• Candlestick Patterns
• Divergence
• Moving Average
• Oscillators
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TRADE PLANNING
“IF YOU FAIL TO PLAN, YOU PLAN TO FAIL”
BULLISH
• Look for Support to BUY
• Look for Resistance to EXIT
BEARISH
• Look for Resistance to SELL
• Look for Support to EXIT
• Takes away the emotions attached to trading
– Provides guidance to where the market is going even after news releases
– Creates a systematic approach to trading
• Painting different scenarios in the market
– Creating a visual mental image of what might happen and acting accordingly
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SUPPORT & RESISTANCE
VISUAL & PSYCHOLOGICAL
• Look for whole numbers
– 00, 20, 50, 80
• Previous failures and bounces
• Pay attention to shadows and body close of candles – ROLE REVERSAL
• Always think of S&R levels as zones
• Look for a candle close above or below S&R levels before considering it broken
– Many times, they are simply market spikes
• Use multiple time-frames to confirm levels
• The higher the time-frame, the more respected the levels are
• A broken support can turn into resistance and vice versa
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SUPPORT & RESISTANCE
Trade Planning – Looking for Confluence
Why Confluence Works
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SUPPORT & RESISTANCE
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SUPPORT & RESISTANCE
TREND LINES
• Not a random drawing on the chart
• There are rules to follow when drawing a trend line
• Trend lines provide guidelines for price
• Can be a support/resistance
• Most of the time, trend lines are sloping
• The degree of the slope indicates trend strength
• Applicable to any chart time-frame
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SUPPORT & RESISTANCE
TREND LINE - UPTREND
• Look out for swing lows on the chart
• Connect the lows of the swings to form a straight line
– Lows and not the period close
• Trend Line must have at least 3 points of contact of the swing low
• Indicates bullish momentum, more buyers than sellers
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SUPPORT & RESISTANCE
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SUPPORT & RESISTANCE
TREND LINE - DOWNTREND
• Look out for swing highs on the charts
• Connect the highs of the swings to form a straight line
– Highs and not the period close
• Trend Line must have at least 3 points of contact of the swing high
• Indicates bearish momentum, more sellers than buyers
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SUPPORT & RESISTANCE
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SUPPORT & RESISTANCE
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SUPPORT & RESISTANCE
CHART PATTERNS
• Used to measure sentiment
– period of consolidation
– provides parameters to the market
• Detect continuation or reversal of trends
• Same rules on how we draw trend lines
• Most common ones:
– wedge, triangle, pennants, flags
• Applicable to any chart time-frame
– adjust trade plan base on time frame
– i.e. a consolidation on a daily chart might be a new trend on a H1 chart
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SUPPORT & RESISTANCE
Chart Patterns and Chart Patterns and Chart Patterns and Chart Patterns and Trend linesTrend linesTrend linesTrend lines
• Autochartist
• Trading Central
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SUPPORT & RESISTANCE
Ascending
Triangle
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SUPPORT & RESISTANCE
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SUPPORT & RESISTANCE
2 SIMPLE WAYS TO TRADE IT
APPROACHAPPROACHAPPROACHAPPROACH
SUPPORT
RESISTANCE
SUPPORT
RESISTANCE
RESISTANCE
SUPPORT
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SUPPORT & RESISTANCE
2 SIMPLE WAYS TO TRADE IT
BREAKOUT BREAKOUT BREAKOUT BREAKOUT –––– ROLE REVERSALSROLE REVERSALSROLE REVERSALSROLE REVERSALS
SUPPORT
RESISTANCE RESISTANCE
SUPPORT
SUPPORT
RESISTANCE
SUPPORT
RESISTANCE
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SUPPORT & RESISTANCE
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SUPPORT & RESISTANCE
CLOCK
Source: http://www.worldtimebuddy.com/
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SUPPORT & RESISTANCE
CLOCK
• Market = People
• Common Psychology and Behavioral Patterns
– We get hungry at the same time
– We sleep at the same time
– We get tired at the same time
– We all want to “Buy low and Sell high”
• Intra-day markets move with these normal human tendencies
• The “CLOCK” is a leading indicator that is often overlooked
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SUPPORT & RESISTANCE
CLOCK = London Open Session High/Low (Yellow Box)
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SUPPORT & RESISTANCE
CLOCK = London Open Session High/Low (Yellow Box)
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SUPPORT & RESISTANCE
CLOCK = London Open Session High/Low (Yellow Box)
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SUPPORT & RESISTANCE
CLOCK = London Open Session High/Low (Yellow Box)
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BOXING THE MARKET -CONFLUENCE
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SUPPORT & RESISTANCE
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SUPPORT & RESISTANCEPUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER
CONFLUENCE 1) Rising Trend line2) Visual Support3) CLOCK - London Open
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CONFLUENCE 1) Bearish Flag2) Channel Breakout3) Visual Resistance4) Psychological Resistance - 0.92805) CLOCK - London Open
SUPPORT & RESISTANCE
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ABullish Flag Breakout
Consolidation
B
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A
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A
C
B
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B
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SUPPORT & RESISTANCE
BOXING THE MARKETS
1) Draw your visual / psychological Support and Resistance Lines
• Be observant to areas of role reversals
• On candlestick charts, look for body closes and shadows
2) Analyse at least 2 time-frames above your execution chart
• Match time-frame to the type of trader YOU are
• Scalper – 1min, 5min, 10min
• Intraday – 15min, 1h, 4h
• Swing – 1h, 4h, Daily
• Position – 4h, Daily, Weekly
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SUPPORT & RESISTANCE
BOXING THE MARKETS
3) Look for chart patterns / trend lines
• Is it a Continuation or Reversal?
• Is it a Breakout or Consolidation?
• If you are not proficient yet, leverage on Autochartist, Trading Central
• There is NO substitute for SCREEN TIME
4) Look for CONFLUENCE areas
• Overlapping Areas of Support and Resistance
• STACK THE ODDS FOR YOU
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SUPPORT & RESISTANCE
BOXING THE MARKETS
5) What’s your Bias?
• Bullish – Support to BUY, Resistance to EXIT
• Bearish – Resistance to SELL, Support to EXIT
• Neutral – Consolidation. BUY at support, SELL at resistance
6) Create a Plan
• Include the “CLOCK” to refine entries and exits
• Paint different scenarios
• Execute with Confidence
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THANK YOUTo receive the presentation slides, please scan your barcode at the front of the seminar room our at the IG booth (#D05)