Trade and Worker Deskilling Trade and Deskilling...Other Leave wins followed and by 2.17am, Nigel...
Transcript of Trade and Worker Deskilling Trade and Deskilling...Other Leave wins followed and by 2.17am, Nigel...
Trade and Worker Deskilling
Rui Costa1, Swati Dhingra1,2 and Stephen Machin1,2
1Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics
2Department of Economics, London School of Economics
April 2019
Motivation
• Globalisation has been pinpointed as one of the possible culprits of lowproductivity growth and real wage stagnation in many developed economies.
• This has motivated work looking at the impact of international trade on thelabour market, but many fundamental questions are far from resolved.
• This paper offers complementary new evidence on connections between tradeand the labour market, taking an empirical approach that differs from existingwork.
Approach and Contribution
• The focus is on a big world event that sent shock waves globally – the EUreferendum vote of June 23, 2016 in the UK.
• The unexpected result of the vote induced an unprecedented overnight fall inthe value of sterling.• Biggest drop ever among the world’s four major currencies since the
collapse of Bretton Woods.
• Unexpected vote-induced sterling depreciation→ Trade→Workers
Trade and Worker Outcomes
• Exports are generally thought of as improving worker outcomes, but the effectof imports on workers is less clear.
• Early studies report a negative impact of imports on workers (Grossman 1987,Revenga 1992), but there is mixed evidence as the nature of imports haschanged.
• There has been a huge rise in trade in intermediate goods and services,and they now comprise two thirds of international trade. (Johnson andNoguera 2012)
• Workers may be hurt through easier offshoring of tasks, but they canbenefit through lower production costs from offshoring. (Grossman andRossi-Hansberg 2006)
• Imports hurt workers if they substitute for domestic labour, but can benefitthem if they are complementary: empirically, endogeneity andanticipation are “first-order” concerns for studying causal effects of tradeon workers. (Goldberg and Pavcnik 2016)
Summary
• Based on the pre-referendum trade structure and the referendum-inducedsterling depreciation across currencies, workers in industries more exposed tointermediate imports-weighted sterling depreciation→ Saw a bigger rise in their industry’s intermediate import price→ Experienced bigger cuts in wages and job-related education training.
• A 1% higher increase in the price of intermediate imports of an industrylowered wages by 0.35-0.55%, implying complementarity among intermediateimports and workers.
Real World (Yesterday)
Matthew Naylor, managing director of Naylor’s Flowers, said: the drop in the valueof the pound had reduced wages for workers. "On the ground, as a British employer,we don’t have the reputation we used to have as a place to better yourself," added MrNaylor. (Sky News 2019)
Advances
• This paper advances trade and labour market research by:• Studying the impact of trade on all workers in the economy, not just in
manufacturing. (Liu and Trefler 2011, Ebenstein et al. 2014)• Utilising the large currency depreciation to lever plausible exogenous
variation in imports, including in services. (Hummels et al. 2018)• Providing the first evidence of actual worker-level outcomes being
adversely affected by the current surge in nationalist politics(Auer et al. 2018, Fajgelbaum et al. 2019)
• The content of this work relates to two strands of literature• Impacts of trade, intermediate inputs/offshoring and exchange rates on
labour market outcomes (Feenstra and Hanson 1999, Campa andGoldberg 2001, Pierce and Schott 2016)
• Actual impacts of nationalist politics (Breinlich et al. 2017, Amiti et al.2019)
Structure of the Talk
• Context of Events of June 23/24, 2016
• Research Design and Data
• Results and Discussion
• Conclusions
EU Referendum
• On June 23 2016, UK voters were asked: “Should the United Kingdom remaina member of the European Union or leave the European Union?”• By 10pm, polling stations across the country closed and YouGov polls
suggested a 52% Remain win.• By 10.15pm, UKIP’s Nigel Farage conceded Remain "will edge it,”
sending sterling to its 2016 high of 1.5 against the dollar.• At 12.20am on June 24, Sunderland voted to Leave by a significant
margin. Sterling dropped more than on Black Wednesday.• By 1.30am, Brexit showed up in Google searches and bookmakers
changed their odds in favour of Leave winning the referendum.• Other Leave wins followed and by 2.17am, Nigel Farage tweeted he is "so
happy with the results in North East England".
• 72% of eligible voters cast a ballot and 52% of these chose “Leave”.
• Country ranking of depreciation is consistent with flight for safe haven assets• Fell more against Japanese Yen, US Dollar.• Forex investors moved to Gold, Government Bonds.
Sterling depreciation from the Brexit news shock
Figure 1
Table 1
EU Referendum - Exchange Rates
EU Referendum Sterling Depreciation Across Countries
Country Currency % Country Currency %
Japan Japanese Yen -11.1 Israel New Israeli Sheqel -6.8
United States US Dollar -8.0 Switzerland Swiss Franc -6.6
Saudi Arabia Saudi Riyal -8.0 Turkey Turkish Lira -6.5
Hong Kong Hong Kong Dollar -7.9 Malaysia Malaysian Ringgit -6.3
Thailand Thai Baht -7.6 Denmark Danish Krone -6.1
China Chinese Yuan -7.5 Euro Zone Euro -6.0
Singapore Singapore Dollar -7.4 Czech Republic Czech Koruna -5.9
Taiwan Taiwan Dollar -7.2 South Korea Korean Won -5.7
Russia Russian Ruble -7.2 South Africa South African Rand -5.3
India Indian Rupee -7.1 Hungary Hungarian Forint -5.2
New Zealand New Zealand Dollar -7.1 Norway Norwegian Krone -5.2
Australia Australian Dollar -6.9 Sweden Swedish Krona -5.1
Canada Canadian Dollar -6.9 Poland Polish Zloty -4.3
Research Design
• Initial trade-weighted depreciation for each industry→Trade prices→Wagesand job-related education & training.
• The reduced form approach has some similarities to recent papers on trade andlabour markets, which typically examine worker outcomes with initial trade ortrade policy exposure as explanatory variable across manufacturing industries(e.g. Schott and Pierce 2016).
Data
• The paper uses individual and industry-level data for the UK, combined withtrade data from a variety of sources
• Worker outcomes - wages and training - come from the quarterly Labour ForceSurvey (LFS)
• The time-frame of the analysis covers four years (sixteen quarters)pre-referendum (2012Q3-2016Q2) and eight quarters post-referendum(2016Q3-2018Q2)
• Data on trade comes from the Office of National Statistics (ONS), includingboth publicly available data and customized data obtained through freedom ofinformation requests.
• The import and export price indices are from ONS data (current price andchained volume measures).
• In order to construct the relevant industry-specific trade measures (85industries), we use data from UN COMTRADE and International Trade inServices (ITIS) for the year 2015 combined with the 2014 Input-Output tablefrom ONS.
• Observe trade shares Sdxo , Ssio for services trade; SsiSio for goods trade.
Difference-in-difference Estimates
Table 2 Intermediate imports weighted depreciation
Table 3 Exports weighted appreciation
Figures 1 to 4 Trade prices and Worker outcomes
Results - Intermediate Imports Weighted Depreciation
Post - Pre Referendum Changes
Intermediate Import Prices Export Prices Wages Training
(1) (2) (3) (4)
Highest Quintile 0.081 0.105 0.060 -0.008
(0.008) (0.010) (0.007) (0.003)
2nd Highest Quintile 0.043 0.118 0.075 0.003
(0.009) (0.009) (0.010) (0.002)
Middle Quintile 0.074 0.108 0.077 -0.002
(0.004) (0.012) (0.008) (0.003)
2nd Lowest Quintile 0.052 0.101 0.087 -0.003
(0.015) (0.013) (0.007) (0.003)
Lowest Quintile 0.037 0.102 0.087 -0.001
(0.007) (0.009) (0.008) (0.001)
Difference-in-Differences 0.044 -0.006 -0.027 -0.007
(Highest - Lowest Quintile) (0.010) (0.015) (0.010) (0.003)
Results - Exports Weighted Appreciation
Post - Pre Referendum Changes
Intermediate Import Prices Export Prices Wages Training
(1) (2) (3) (4)
Highest Quintile 0.052 0.097 0.077 -0.004
(0.017) (0.004) (0.009) (0.003)
2nd Highest Quintile 0.062 0.125 0.081 -0.001
(0.013) (0.015) (0.009) (0.002)
Middle Quintile 0.047 0.108 0.064 -0.004
(0.009) (0.006) (0.011) (0.002)
2nd Lowest Quintile 0.070 0.107 0.073 0.002
(0.007) (0.013) (0.008) (0.002)
Lowest Quintile 0.051 0.096 0.089 -0.002
(0.010) (0.007) (0.009) (0.002)
Difference-in-Differences 0.001 0.001 -0.011 -0.003
(Highest - Lowest Quintile) (0.020) (0.008) (0.013) (0.003)
Results - Intermediate Import Prices
Results - Export Prices
Results - Wages
Results - Training
Reduced Form Evidence
Table 4 Trade Prices
Figure 5 Intermediate Import Price Trends
Figure 6 Wage Trends
Reduced Form/First Stage - Trade Prices and ExchangeRates
Full Sample Restricted Samples
Excluding Excluding
Announcement QE
(1) (2) (3)
A. Intermediate Import Prices
Log(Intermediate Imports Weighted 0.375 0.411 0.526
Depreciation) X Post-Referendum (0.100) (0.107) (0.137)
B. Export Prices
Log(Intermediate Imports Weighted 0.164 0.171 0.233
Depreciation) X Post-Referendum (0.111) (0.114) (0.136)
Log(Exports Weighted 0.006 0.007 0.009
Appreciation) X Post-Referendum (0.016) (0.016) (0.019)
Controls, Time Dummies, Industry Dummies Yes Yes Yes
Sample Size 2040 1870 1360
Pre/Post Trends in Intermediate Import Prices
Pre/Post Trends in Wages
Reduced Form and IV Estimates
Tables 5 and 6 Wages
Tables 7 and 8 Training
Wages and Trade, A
A. Full Sample
Reduced Form IV Reduced Form IV
(1) (2) (3) (4)
Log(Intermediate Imports Weighted -0.201 -0.204
Depreciation) X Post-Referendum (0.075) (0.074)
Log(Exports Weighted -0.013
Appreciation) X Post-Referendum (0.014)
Log(Intermediate Import Prices) -0.515 -0.545
(0.251) (0.226)
Log (Export Prices) 0.075
(0.101)
First-Stage F Statistic 14.1 4.6
Controls, Time Dummies, Industry Dummies Yes Yes Yes Yes
Sample Size 123,489 123,489 123,489 123,489
Wages and Trade, B
B. Restricted Samples
Exclude Announcement Exclude QE
Reduced Form IV Reduced Form IV
(5) (6) (7) (8)
Log(Intermediate Imports Weighted -0.206 -0.190
Depreciation) X Post-Referendum (0.074) (0.087)
Log(Intermediate Import Prices) -0.483 -0.343
(0.221) (0.175)
First-Stage F Statistic 14.1 14.0
Controls, Time Dummies, Industry Dummies Yes Yes Yes Yes
Sample Size 117,380 117,380 92,492 92,492
Training and Trade, A
A. Full Sample
Reduced Form IV Reduced Form IV
(1) (2) (3) (4)
Log(Intermediate Imports Weighted -0.069 -0.071
Depreciation) X Post-Referendum (0.021) (0.022)
Log(Exports Weighted -0.001
Appreciation) X Post-Referendum (0.007)
Log(Intermediate Import Prices) -0.184 -0.196
(0.073) (0.076)
Log (Export Prices) 0.024
(0.044)
First-Stage F Statistic 14.1 4.9
Controls, Time Dummies, Industry Dummies Yes Yes Yes Yes
Sample Size 578,282 578,282 578,282 578,282
Training and Trade, B
B. Restricted Samples
Exclude Announcement Exclude QE
Reduced Form IV Reduced Form IV
(5) (6) (7) (8)
Log(Intermediate Imports Weighted -0.073 -0.048
Depreciation) X Post-Referendum (0.022) (0.022)
Log(Intermediate Import Prices) -0.177 -0.090
(0.073) (0.053)
First-Stage F Statistic 14.8 14.7
Controls, Time Dummies, Industry Dummies Yes Yes Yes Yes
Sample Size 548,079 548,079 434,431 434,431
Skill Variations: Wages
Full Sample Restricted Samples
Excluding Excluding
Announcement QE
IV IV IV
(1) (2) (3)
Log(Price of Intermediate Imports)× Graduates -0.616 -0.607 -0.601
(0.216) (0.191) (0.176)
Log(Price of Intermediate Imports)× Non-Graduates -0.216 -0.184 -0.042
(0.252) (0.225) (0.196)
First-Stage F-Statistic 6.8 7.3 12.8
Controls, Time Dummies, Industry Dummies Yes Yes Yes
Sample Size 123,489 117,380 92,492
Skill Variations: Training
Full Sample Restricted Samples
Excluding Excluding
Announcement QE
IV IV IV
(1) (2) (3)
Log(Price of Intermediate Imports)× Graduates -0.205 -0.199 -0.148
(0.067) (0.067) (0.061)
Log(Price of Intermediate Imports)× Non-Graduates -0.118 -0.124 -0.023
(0.085) (0.087) (0.074)
First-Stage F-Statistic 6.9 7.4 11.3
Controls, Time Dummies, Industry Dummies Yes Yes Yes
Sample Size 578,282 548,079 434,431
Comparison - Offshoring Studies
• dlogW/dlogPM = θ̂MW = [−0.35,−0.55]• Offhsoring studies typically use trade values, instead of prices. Import demand
elasticity for intermediates in Alfaro et al (forthcoming) is -8.6.
• Compare with Hummels et al. (2014) study of offshoring rise on Danishmatched employer-employee manufacturing data.
Estimated Wage Elasticityθ̂MW /(−7.6) Hummels et al estimate
(1) (2)
Graduate 0.08 0.03 to 0.07Non-Graduate 0 to -0.03 -0.06 to -0.11
Graduate/Non-Graduate 0.08 to 0.11 0.09 to 0.18
Discussion
• The reduction in wages and training after the Brexit vote is the first piece ofevidence on the worker impacts of the recent surge in economic nationalism.
• The rationale that protectionist barriers will protect domestic production andundo the economic damage suffered by those who lost out earlier needs toaccount for the sharp rise in the fragmentation of production into global valuechains.
• In the long-term this disinvestment can jeopardize potential worker earningsand human capital development, particularly in the context of an economy withchronic skill shortages like the UK.
Conclusions
• The depreciation that resulted from the Brexit vote has significantly increasedthe costs for industries relying more on global value chains in their production.
• The response to this cost shock was a significant price pass through and theresultant higher costs of intermediate imports caused a relative fall in thetraining and wages of workers in the most affected industries.
• The decision to leave the EU (not even the actual exit) has already detrimentallyaffected workers’ welfare in a way contrary to the beliefs expressed by someabout the likely repercussions from the leave vote.
Origin Country Structure - Intermediate Import Shares
Destination Country Structure - Export Shares
Robustness - Inclusion of Pre-Referendum Import Shares,Wages Reduced Form
Intermediate Wages
Import Prices
First Stage Reduced Form IV
(1) (2) (3)
Log(Intermediate Imports Weighted 0.383 -0.205
Depreciation) X Post-Referendum (0.107) (0.072)
Share of Imports in -0.035 -0.026
Intermediates X Post-Referendum (0.037) (0.025)
Log(Intermediate Import Prices) -0.430
(0.210)
First-Stage F Statistic 8.3
Controls, Time Dummies, Industry Dummies Yes Yes Yes
Sample Size 2040 123,489 123,489
Robustness - Inclusion of Pre-Referendum Import Shares,Training Reduced Form
Intermediate Training
Import Prices
First Stage Reduced Form IV
(1) (2) (3)
Log(Intermediate Imports Weighted 0.371 -0.068
Depreciation) X Post-Referendum (0.101) (0.021)
Share of Imports in -0.035 0.003
Intermediates X Post-Referendum (0.035) (0.009)
Log(Intermediate Import Prices) -0.177
(0.068)
First-Stage F Statistic 8.5
Controls, Time Dummies, Industry Dummies Yes Yes Yes
Sample Size 2040 578,282 578,282
Robustness - Inclusion of Pre-Referendum Import Shares,Wages Reduced Form
Intermediate Wages
Import Prices
First Stage Reduced Form IV
(1) (2) (3)
Log(Intermediate Imports Weighted 0.383 -0.205
Depreciation) X Post-Referendum (0.107) (0.072)
Share of Imports in -0.035 -0.026
Intermediates X Post-Referendum (0.037) (0.025)
Log(Intermediate Import Prices) -0.430
(0.210)
First-Stage F Statistic 8.3
Controls, Time Dummies, Industry Dummies Yes Yes Yes
Sample Size 2040 123,489 123,489
Robustness - Inclusion of Pre-Referendum Import Shares,Training Reduced Form
Intermediate Training
Import Prices
First Stage Reduced Form IV
(1) (2) (3)
Log(Intermediate Imports Weighted 0.371 -0.068
Depreciation) X Post-Referendum (0.101) (0.021)
Share of Imports in -0.035 0.003
Intermediates X Post-Referendum (0.035) (0.009)
Log(Intermediate Import Prices) -0.177
(0.068)
First-Stage F Statistic 8.5
Controls, Time Dummies, Industry Dummies Yes Yes Yes
Sample Size 2040 578,282 578,282
Robustness - Intermediate Import Prices Reduced Formwith Import Competition Channel
Full Sample Restricted Samples
Excluding Excluding
Announcement QE
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
Log(Intermediate Imports Weighted 0.375 0.350 0.383 0.490
Depreciation) X Post-Referendum (0.100) (0.091) (0.098) (0.128)
Log(Total Imports Weighted 0.169 0.147 0.165 0.214
Depreciation) X Post-Referendum (0.050) (0.046) (0.048) (0.059)
Sample Size 2,040 2,040 2040 1870 1360
Robustness - Wages Reduced Form with ImportCompetition Channel
Full Sample Restricted Samples
Excluding Excluding
Announcement QE
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
Log(Intermediate Imports Weighted -0.201 -0.187 -0.192 -0.177
Depreciation) X Post-Referendum (0.075) (0.076) (0.075) (0.089)
Log(Total Imports Weighted -0.081 -0.068 -0.074 -0.066
Depreciation) X Post-Referendum (0.054) (0.052) (0.051) (0.055)
Controls Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Time Dummies, Industry Dummies Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Sample Size 123,489 123,489 123,489 117,380 92,492
Robustness - Training Reduced Form with ImportCompetition Channel
Full Sample Restricted Samples
Excluding Excluding
Announcement QE
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
Log(Intermediate Imports Weighted -0.069 -0.060 -0.065 -0.041
Depreciation) X Post-Referendum (0.021) (0.020) (0.022) (0.022)
Log(Total Imports Weighted -0.055 -0.051 -0.046 -0.036
Depreciation) X Post-Referendum (0.017) (0.015) (0.017) (0.017)
Controls Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Time Dummies, Industry Dummies Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Sample Size 578,282 578,282 578,282 548,079 434,431
Robustness - Pre-Post Referendum Changes in TradeQuantities
Full Sample Restricted Samples
Excluding Excluding
Announcement QE
(1) (2) (3)
A. Intermediate Imports
Log(Intermediate Imports Weighted 0.072 0.088 0.115
Depreciation) X Post-Referendum (0.079) (0.085) (0.102)
B. Exports
Log(Intermediate Imports Weighted -0.461 -0.493 -0.639
Depreciation) X Post-Referendum (0.289) (0.305) (0.366)
Log(Exports Weighted 0.010 0.009 0.004
Appreciation) X Post-Referendum (0.053) (0.057) (0.066)
Controls, Time Dummies, Industry Dummies Yes Yes Yes
Sample Size 2040 1870 1360
EU Referendum - Exchange Rates - 7-Day and 15-Day
(a) 7-Day (b) 15-Day
Robustness - Wages with 7-Day Exchange Rate Window
Intermediate Import Prices Wages
First Stage Reduced Form IV
(1) (2) (3)
Log(Intermediate Imports Weighted 0.383 -0.189
Depreciation) X Post-Referendum (0.116) (0.074)
Log(Intermediate Import Prices) -0.495
(0.270)
First-Stage F Statistic 10.9
Controls, Time Dummies, Industry Dummies Yes Yes Yes
Sample Size 2040 123,489 123,489
Robustness - Training with 7-Day Exchange Rate Window
Intermediate Import Prices Training
First Stage Reduced Form IV
(1) (2) (3)
Log(Intermediate Imports Weighted 0.370 -0.073
Depreciation) X Post-Referendum (0.113) (0.024)
Log(Intermediate Import Prices) -0.197
(0.084)
First-Stage F Statistic 10.8
Controls, Time Dummies, Industry Dummies Yes Yes Yes
Sample Size 2040 578,282 578,282
Robustness - Wages with 15-Day Exchange Rate Window
Intermediate Import Prices Wages
First Stage Reduced Form IV
(1) (2) (3)
Log(Intermediate Imports Weighted 0.402 -0.102
Depreciation) X Post-Referendum (0.129) (0.054)
Log(Intermediate Import Prices) -0.252
(0.169)
First-Stage F Statistic 9.2
Controls, Time Dummies, Industry Dummies Yes Yes Yes
Sample Size 2040 123,489 123,489
Robustness - Training with 15-Day Exchange Rate Window
Intermediate Import Prices Training
First Stage Reduced Form IV
(1) (2) (3)
Log(Intermediate Imports Weighted 0.386 -0.052
Depreciation) X Post-Referendum (0.127) (0.024)
Log(Intermediate Import Prices) -0.136
(0.076)
First-Stage F Statistic 9.2
Controls, Time Dummies, Industry Dummies Yes Yes Yes
Sample Size 2040 578,282 578,282
Hours and Trade
A. Full Sample
Reduced Form IV Reduced Form IV
(1) (2) (3) (4)
Log(Intermediate Imports Weighted -0.052 -0.051
Depreciation) X Post-Referendum (0.032) (0.032)
Log(Exports Weighted 0.009
Appreciation) X Post-Referendum (0.007)
Log(Intermediate Import Prices) -0.137 -0.103
(0.105) (0.104)
Log (Export Prices) -0.069
(0.039)
First-Stage F Statistic 14.3 5.0
Controls, Time Dummies, Industry Dummies Yes Yes Yes Yes
Sample Size 571,335 571,335 571,335 571,335
Hours and Trade
B. Restricted Samples
Exclude Announcement Exclude QE
Reduced Form IV Reduced Form IV
(5) (6) (7) (8)
Log(Intermediate Imports Weighted -0.050 -0.061
Depreciation) X Post-Referendum (0.033) (0.039)
Log(Intermediate Import Prices) -0.122 -0.116
(0.097) (0.088)
First-Stage F Statistic 15.0 14.9
Controls, Time Dummies, Industry Dummies Yes Yes Yes Yes
Sample Size 541,567 541,567 429,214 429,214
Overtime Hours and Trade
A. Full Sample
Reduced Form IV Reduced Form IV
(1) (2) (3) (4)
Log(Intermediate Imports Weighted -0.147 -0.140
Depreciation) X Post-Referendum (0.049) (0.051)
Log(Exports Weighted -0.017
Appreciation) X Post-Referendum (0.001)
Log(Intermediate Import Prices) -0.392 -0.314
(0.176) (0.168)
Log (Export Prices) -0.122
(0.049)
First-Stage F Statistic 14.1 4.9
Controls, Time Dummies, Industry Dummies Yes Yes Yes Yes
Sample Size 578,282 578,282 578,282 578,282
Overtime Hours and Trade
B. Restricted Samples
Exclude Announcement Exclude QE
Reduced Form IV Reduced Form IV
(5) (6) (7) (8)
Log(Intermediate Imports Weighted -0.141 -0.150
Depreciation) X Post-Referendum (0.052) (0.051)
Log(Intermediate Import Prices) -0.342 -0.285
(0.163) (0.120)
First-Stage F Statistic 14.8 14.7
Controls, Time Dummies, Industry Dummies Yes Yes Yes Yes
Sample Size 548,079 548,079 434,431 434,431
Robustness - Wages Of All Workers
A. Full Sample
Reduced Form IV Reduced Form IV
(1) (2) (3) (4)
Log(Intermediate Imports Weighted -0.247 -0.251
Depreciation) X Post-Referendum (0.082) (0.082)
Log(Exports Weighted -0.009
Appreciation) X Post-Referendum (0.012)
Log(Intermediate Import Prices) -0.652 -0.661
(0.312) (0.287)
Log (Export Prices) 0.029
(0.142)
First-Stage F Statistic 14.4 4.9
Controls, Time Dummies, Industry Dummies Yes Yes Yes Yes
Sample Size 159,957 159,957 159,957 159,957
Robustness - Wages Of All Workers
B. Restricted Samples
Exclude Announcement Exclude QE
Reduced Form IV Reduced Form IV
(5) (6) (7) (8)
Log(Intermediate Imports Weighted -0.251 -0.253
Depreciation) X Post-Referendum (0.080) (0.103)
Log(Intermediate Import Prices) -0.607 -0.478
(0.271) (0.233)
First-Stage F Statistic 14.9 14.8
Controls, Time Dummies, Industry Dummies Yes Yes Yes Yes
Sample Size 152,065 152,065 119,953 119,953
Robustness - Time Window and Alternative TrainingMeasure
Excluding Observations Received training in
Close to Referendum Last Three Months
Wages Training Training - 3 months
IV IV IV
(1) (2) (3)
Log(Intermediate Import -0.489 -0.176 -0.319
Prices) X Post-Referendum (0.252) (0.071) (0.139)
First-Stage F Statistic 13.5 13.9 14.1
Controls Yes Yes Yes
Time and Industry Dummies Yes Yes Yes
Sample Size 121,954 571,049 578,282