Trade and business statistics: use of administrative data Lunch Seminar Enrico Giovannini Italian...
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Transcript of Trade and business statistics: use of administrative data Lunch Seminar Enrico Giovannini Italian...
Trade and business statistics: use of administrative data
Lunch Seminar
Enrico GiovanniniItalian National Statistical Institute (ISTAT)
New York, February, the 27th, 2013
44TH SESSION OF THE UN STATISTICAL COMMISSION
Outline of the presentation
The converging pattern between Business and International Trade statistics
ISTAT experience in developing: an integrated framework between Foreign trade data and the Business
Register: approach, process and main outputs an integrated framework for the production of Structural Business
Statistics (SBS) as well as new indicators for statistics on international trade by business characteristics: approach and expected results
a micro-level database for analytical purposes integrating international trade and FATS statistics with administrative data (balance sheets variables and indicators): approach and main results
Conclusions
TRADE AND BUSINESS STATISTICS: USE OF ADMINISTRATIVE DATAATISTICAL COMMISSION
DRIVERS Demand side: Shift in foreign trade statistics from “product-market” oriented questions toward key business related questions: Who is exporting what where? Which is the performance gap between exporting and non exporting firms? Why exporting firms outperform non exporting ones?
Supply side: Technological innovations in the management of large databases, availability of census-like administrative data that allow to measure business performance (key business variables and performance indicators from balance sheets data)
OPPORTUNITIES Large benefits from firm level integration of multiple data sources in terms of better data quality, reduction of the statistical burden on companies and dissemination - at virtually zero costs - of new indicators as well as standard variables according to fine grain strata or new target populations: exporting firms
POSSIBLE DRAWBACKS Problems of data consistency within but especially across different statistical domains. Potential diffusion of misleading aggregated figures and/or biased inference from firm micro-data.
THE CONVERGENCE BETWEEN BUSINESS AND TRADE
POSSIBLE AVENUES IN THE PROCESS OF CONVERGENCE
CONVERGING PATTERN BETWEEN BUSINESS AND TRADE
International trade data
Administrative data: Balance
sheets
Business register
Structural Business data
Full coverage but lack of consistency with SBS data
Limited coverage but consistency with SBS data
The integration between the Italian BR and the register of foreign trade operators was developed by ISTAT at the beginning of ’90s as a one way process (variables from the BR were included in foreign trade data with limited benefit for the BR)
At the end of ’90s, the foreign trade register was fully integrated in the process of
set up and yearly upgrade of the Italian business register. Two-way process: foreign trade data contribute to define the state of activity of enterprises in BR
Since the year 2000 production of a full set of figures on the business structure of Italian exporting firms published in the “Statistical Yearbook on Foreign Trade Statistics and Enterprise International Activities” edited by ISTAT and ICE
Last decade: The register on trade operators was increasingly used for analytical purposes (panel datasets, integration with other surveys and administrative data)
Current decade: Use of the foreign trade register to identify target populations for the Business Census 2011 as well as to identify “outlier” business units in the BR (Special purpose entities)
FOREIGN TRADE AND BR: APPROACH, PROCESS AND OUTPUTS
The Italian frame for the compilation of Structural Business statistics is based on a census survey for large firms and upon a random sample for SMEs. Given the presence in Italy of a very large number of small businesses (95% of 4,4 millions of firms active in 2010 employ less than 10 person employed ), the stratified random sample used to collect business data for SMEs includes 97.000 firms
Administrative data – balance sheets data for firms with a company legal status and fiscal data for small businesses – cover only partially the target population and are plagued by different sources of measurement errors
From 2011 as reference year, the new approach for the estimation of SBS variables is based upon a firm level database which integrates all statistical and administrative sources. In particular, for each firm in the BR a minimum set of key economic variables will be made available based on data integration, validation or estimation. This new “frame” will be available by mid-2013
This new “frame” will make possible the dissemination of new statistics on key business variables with a fine grain detail or across different types of business population. In particular, it will generate new indicators or business variables for the population of exporting enterprises as well as for other target business populations of firms engaged in globalization in a fully consistent way with respect to all estimation strata considered by SBS
INTEGRATED APPROACH FOR STRUCTURAL BUSINESS DATA
Firms engaged in globalization usually adopt multiple internationalization strategies: export of final goods, import of intermediate goods, set up of a production plan in a country, set up of a wholesale company in another country
The “internationalization profile” of an enterprise, especially its impact on employment and economic performance, cannot be assessed using micro level data from a single statistical domain (stovepipe approach)
Multiple statistical sources focusing on globalization should be integrated and linked to business data in order to identify a firm “internationalization profile” and measure the effects in terms of profitability and productivity
Based on the informative needs of multiple national and international stakeholders (WPGI OECD), a firm level dataset which integrates international trade data, FATS data with balance sheet information from an administrative data source was set up in 2012
This experimental database has already been successfully used to support applied economic analysis. Preliminary results were just published in the first issue of the Italian Report on Industry and enterprise competitiveness
FIRM LEVEL DATASETS WITH TRADE, FATS AND ADMIN DATA
FIRM LEVEL DATASETS WITH TRADE, FATS AND ADMIN DATA
The firm level integration between international trade and FATS data allowed to identify a very interesting taxonomy of enterprise “internationalization profile” across all business units included in the
Italian Business Register
BUSINESS REGISTER ADMINISTRATIVE DATA
Balance sheets data were used to build productivity and profitability indicators
FIRM LEVEL DATASETS WITH TRADE, FATS AND ADMIN DATA
Business characteristics and key performance indicators by type of enterprise internationalisation profile
Taxonomy of enterprise internationalization profile
Number of firms
(absolute value)
Number of firms (share in
%)
Number of persons
employed
Average size (numer of
person employed)
Labour productivity
Profitability Export
propensity
Firms under foreign control 4.261 4,7 936.749 219,8 103,9 34,8 23,3Domestic multinational enterprises 3.133 3,4 647.232 206,6 86,0 34,8 39,1Global markets enterprises 10.467 11,4 933.482 89,2 65,5 35,4 47,8Firms engaged in both export and import 28.176 30,8 992.827 35,2 62,7 40,3 20,9Firms engaged in the import of intermediate goods 13.608 14,9 412.095 30,3 60,9 43,6 0,0Firms engaged in the import of other goods 7.605 8,3 143.983 18,9 54,3 50,0 0,0
Firms engaged in export activity only 24.168 26,4 323.776 13,4 46,6 41,4 17,7
Total 91.418 100,0 4.390.145 48,0 60,5 40,9 19,0
91.000 limited firms resident in Italy in 2010 were engaged in international activities. They employed 4,4 millions of people 30% of them were engaged in both export and import, more than 10% were “global” exporters, indeed they exported goods in more than 5 geographical areas outside the EU
Labor productivity and export propensity (export over turnover) seem to be positively correlated with more complex forms of enterprise internationalization
FIRM LEVEL DATASETS WITH TRADE, FATS AND ADMIN DATA
Transition Matrix of enterprise internationalisation profile from 2007 to 2010 (share in %)
Firms under foreign control
Domestic multinational enterprises
Global markets enterprises
Firms engaged in both export and import
Firms engaged in the import of intermediate goods
Firms engaged in the import of other goods
Firms engaged in export activity only
Total
Firms under foreign control 95,1 0,3 1,4 1,6 0,8 0,4 0,5 100Domestic multinational enterprises 1,1 74,1 10,2 9,9 1,3 0,8 2,6 100
Global markets enterprises 1,1 3,5 74,0 15,7 0,1 0,0 5,7 100Firms engaged in both export and import 0,8 1,4 7,4 72,0 6,5 2,4 9,6 100Firms engaged in the import of intermediate goods 0,8 0,5 0,2 29,0 60,0 6,1 3,4 100Firms engaged in the import of other goods 0,5 0,4 0,3 24,7 18,6 49,1 6,5 100Firms engaged in export activity only 0,2 0,5 4,2 24,6 2,9 1,7 65,9 100
Internationalization profile in 2007
Internationalization profile in 2010
A limited but significant share of internationalized firms seem to have evolved in time from “basic” to more complex internationalization profiles In particular, almost 30% of all firms engaged in the import of intermediate goods in 2007 became in 2010 firms active in both the export and the import of goods
Firm level integration between foreign trade data and the business register paves the way to further linkages with multiple statistical and administrative data sources. This approach is very likely to generate great benefits “at virtually zero costs” in terms of new statistical indicators and new firm level databases for the analysis of globalization
Firm level integration across multiple statistical and administrative data sources can be achieved following different avenues. Each avenue presents specific informative benefits, but is also plagued by potential threats
The integration of international trade data with administrative data allows to achieve great coverage and very interesting informative gains in the short- medium term, but it also suffers because of inconsistency problems with SBS data
The full integration between SBS statistics, international trade and administrative data is only feasible in the medium-long term. Nevertheless it can provide more stable and reliable results, since they are fully consistent with official business figures across all possible classification domains
The integration between FATS and international trade data at the firm level allows to identify a taxonomy of enterprise internationalization profiles and to assess their heterogeneous impact on firm performance
CONCLUSIONS