Tracking progress in Portugal...9/11/2013 5 TRACKING PROGRESS IN PORTUGAL Estimate of 1990 energy...
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9/11/2013 1 Tracking progress in Portugal Is Portugal´s experience useful to others? Gonçalo Cavalheiro Mitigation Partnership Summer School Hanoi, 27 th August 2013 THIS PRESENTATION Tracking progress over time: has consistency been maintained in the estimation of GHG emissions in the past 20 years? Have emission projections provided a solid basis for policy decisions? How has Portugal tracked progress? GHG Inventory Emissions projections Policies and Measures 2
Transcript of Tracking progress in Portugal...9/11/2013 5 TRACKING PROGRESS IN PORTUGAL Estimate of 1990 energy...
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Tracking progress in PortugalIs Portugal ´́́́s experience useful to others?
Gonçalo Cavalheiro
Mitigation Partnership Summer School
Hanoi, 27 th August 2013
THIS PRESENTATION
Tracking progress over time: has consistency been maintained in the estimation of GHG emissions in the past 20 years?
Have emission projections provided a solid basis for policy decisions?
How has Portugal tracked progress?
GHG Inventory
Emissions projections
Policies and Measures
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THIS PRESENTATION
Tracking progress over time: has consistency been maintained in the estimation of GHG emissions in the past 20 years?
Have emission projections provided a solid basis for policy decisions?
How has Portugal tracked progress?
GHG Inventory
Emissions projections
Policies and Measures
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TRACKING PROGRESS IN PORTUGAL
Estimate of 1990 energy emissions in 1994 (NC1): 42 Mt
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TRACKING PROGRESS IN PORTUGAL
Estimate of 1990 energy emissions in 1997 (NC2): 47 Mt
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TRACKING PROGRESS IN PORTUGAL
Estimate of 1990 energy emissions in 2003 (NC3): 41 Mt
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TRACKING PROGRESS IN PORTUGAL
Estimate of 1990 energy emissions in 2006 (NC4) – fi rst with national system under KP (SNIERPA) recently in place: ~40Mt
Diga
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TRACKING PROGRESS IN PORTUGAL
Estimate of 1990 energy emissions in 2010 (NC5): ~4 0Mt
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TRACKING PROGRESS IN PORTUGAL
Estimate of 1990 energy emissions in 2013 (CRF): ~4 1Mt
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GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND SINK CATEGORIES CO2 CH4 N2O NOX CO NMVOC SO2
(Gg)
Total Energy 40 609,21 27,20 1,47 243,41 803,93 189,81 310,42
THIS PRESENTATION
Tracking progress over time: has consistency been maintained in the estimation of GHG emissions in the past 20 years?
Have emission projections provided a solid basis for policy decisions?
How has Portugal tracked progress?
GHG Inventory
Emissions projections
Policies and Measures
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TRACKING PROGRESS IN PORTUGAL
Emissions projections for 2000 in 1994 (NC1): 54Mt
Actual Emissions in 2000 (CRF 2003 submission): ~58 Mt
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GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND SINK CATEGORIES CO2 CH4 N2O NOX CO NMVOC SO2
(Gg)Total Energy 57 944,17 29,45 3,10 397,39 1 014,52 219,24 275,47
TRACKING PROGRESS IN PORTUGAL
Total emissions projections for 2010 in 2003 (NC3): 99-95Mta
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TRACKING PROGRESS IN PORTUGAL
Total emissions projections for 2010 in 2010 (NC4): 85Mt
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TRACKING PROGRESS IN PORTUGAL
Actual emissions in 2011 –w/out LULUCF (NIR 2013): ~70Mt
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WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED FROM THESE NUMBERS ?
− That tracking ex-post emissions has been a rather s uccessful and consistent exercise
− That estimating emissions projections has been a co mplete failure.
− Big problem: policy planning and decisions are made based on emissions projections.
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THIS PRESENTATION
Tracking progress over time: has consistency been maintained in the estimation of GHG emissions in the past 20 years?
Have emission projections provided a solid basis for policy decisions?
How has Portugal tracked progress?
GHG Inventory
Emissions projections
Policies and Measures
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HOW DO WE ACTUALLY TRACK PROGRESS IN PORTUGAL?
Tracking
Progress
Tracking
Progress
National System for GHG
Emissions and
Removals
(SNIERPA)
National System for GHG
Emissions and
Removals
(SNIERPA)
ProjectionsProjectionsPAMs
Monitor
PAMs
Monitor
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SNIERPA
− National system according to KP rules (art. 5.1)
− Establishes (by law) a set of institutional respons ibilities (who is responsible for the provision of data, who is respo nsible for the estimation of emissions…)
− Determines a QA/QC and a methodological development programme.
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WWW.CUMPRIRQUIOTO.PT
− System build to monitor implementation of measures adopted to meet KP target
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WWW.CUMPRIRQUIOTO.PT
− Monitoring PAMs
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WWW.CUMPRIRQUIOTO.PT
− Detailled information about each single PAM
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WWW.CUMPRIRQUIOTO.PT
− Detailled information about acquisition of carbon credits
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PROJECTIONS
− Ad hoc teams, lead by consultants (including univer sities and research centers) with the active participation of key stakeholders (both public and private).
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EVALUATION OF THE PT PROGRESS TRACKING SYSTEM : 2012 IN COUNTRY REVIEW REPORT (GHG INVENTORY AND SNIERPA)
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EVALUATION OF THE PT PROGRESS TRACKING SYSTEM : 2012 IN COUNTRY REVIEW REPORT (GHG INVENTORY AND SNIERPA)
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EVALUATION OF THE PT PROGRESS TRACKING SYSTEM : 2010 NC IN-COUNTRY REVIEW (PROJECTIONS)
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− No material findings/recommendations.
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ANSWERING OUR INITIAL QUESTIONS
Tracking progress over time: has consistency been maintained in the estimation of GHG emissions in the past 20 years?
– Very much so.
Have emission projections provided a solid basis for policy decisions?
− Emissions projections have not accuratly foreseen actual emissions, thus potentially misleading the decision makers.
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