Tracking Development Progress in the Pacific facts, fiction and some follies Gerald Haberkorn
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Transcript of Tracking Development Progress in the Pacific facts, fiction and some follies Gerald Haberkorn
Tracking Development Progress in the Pacific facts, fiction and some follies
Gerald HaberkornManager, Statistics for Development ProgrammeSecretariat of the Pacific CommunityNoumea, New [email protected]; www.spc.int/sdp
Statistics for Development ProgrammeSecretariat of the Pacific Community
2011 International Conference on MDG StatisticsManila, 19 – 21 October 2011
Pacific Island Countries and Territories
Marshall Islands
Kiribati
Tuvalu
French Polynesia
Tokelau
AmSamoa
SamoaWallis etFutuna
PitcairnIslands
CookIslands
Niue
Fiji
Vanuatu
New Caledonia
SolomonIslands
Papua New Guinea
Tonga
Nauru
Palau
Guam
CNMI
Federated States of Micronesia
One of hundreds
and another one
1. Sea of islands – multiple diversities2. Tracking MDG progress in the Pacific, 2011 3. Opinions versus facts – some data management follies4. Reflecting on way forward
Statistics for Development ProgrammeSecretariat of the Pacific Community
Structure of presentation
• 15 countries, 7 territories• Population, 2011: 10 million (PNG 6,9 million -> Pitcairn 48 people)• 1 country 2/3 of Pacific population <---> 8 countries < 20,000 pop• 3 sub-regions: Melanesia, Micronesia, Polynesia• Substantial diversity: bio-physical environment, economies,
demography, cultural and politicalo 0.1% of world population – 1/3 of world’s known and documented languages
(700)• Considerable similarities:
o Small size of domestic marketso Heavy reliance on importso Isolation/transport challenges and costso Dominance of public sectorso Weak manufacturing base and high cost structure
Statistics for Development ProgrammeSecretariat of the Pacific Community
A sea of islands – multiple diversities
• Clearly reflected in 2011 MDG tracking report• It also illustrates the danger of regional aggregation of
values, with one country biasing regional picture.• If aggregates are required, might be beneficial to work
along the lines of established three sub-regions (see next slide)
Statistics for Development ProgrammeSecretariat of the Pacific Community
A sea of islands – multiple diversities
Statistics for Development ProgrammeSecretariat of the Pacific Community
• Accurate assessment of MDG developments over time hampered by both lack and abundance of specific MDG indicators, as well as data communication and data management hiccups.
• Current scenarios and challenges with Pacific Island Countries’ MDG reportingi. parallel reporting of multiple values for the same indicator, ii. use of estimates when national data are available, iii. references to data unavailability where information does existiv. misinformed assertions about development status of countries,
including the lack of development progress made.
Statistics for Development ProgrammeSecretariat of the Pacific Community
Opinions versus facts – some data management follies
Statistics for Development ProgrammeSecretariat of the Pacific Community
Parallel reporting facilitated by abundance, not simply because of lacking MDG related data and information
National Regional International Cook Islands 2005 and 2010 Fiji Islands 2004 and 2009 Kiribati 2007 Marshall Islands 2005 and 2009 Niue 2007 Palau 2008 Papua New Guinea 2005 and 2009
(forthcoming) Samoa 2010 (2nd progress report) Solomon Islands 2004 Tonga 2005 and 2010 Tuvalu 2006 Vanuatu 2005 and 2010
SPC: First Regional
MDG Report, 2004 PFIS: 2011 Pacific
MDGs Tracking Report (annual since 2009)
UNSD Annual MDG Report ESCAP/ADB/UNDP Annual
MDG report for Asia-Pacific WHO Progress import on
achieving Health related MDGs in Western Pacific Region, 2010
i. Parallel reporting of multiple values for the same indicator
Table 2: MDG 8.15 – Mobile cellular phone subscriptions per 100 population, Marshall islands
Description Value Year Data Source Percentage of population owning a cellular phone
40.6
2007
2007 Marshall islands DHS survey
Mobile cellular phone subscriptions per 100 population
17.5 2008 Marshall Islands National MDG Report
Mobile cellular phone subscriptions per 100 population
3.78 (7.03)
2008 (2010)
UNSD MDG Indicators
Mobile cellular phone subscriptions per 100 population
1.68 2009 ADB PIPI Draft report
Mobile cellular phone subscriptions per 100 population
1.6 2009 World Bank ICT at a glance
Mobile cellular phone subscriptions per 100 population
24.0 2011 National Telco Authority /Ministry of Transport and Communication
ii. Use of estimates when national data are available
iii. References to data unavailability where information exists
iv. Misinformed assertions about development status of countries, including the lack of development progress made.
Two key challenges (illustrated with reference to IMR)
• Conceptual: choice of meaningful targets (focus on halving or reducing something by 2/3 not always conducive to accurately reflect true achievements)
• Fiji (national data): 17 (1990) –> 15 (2009)• 2015 target: unlikely to achieve two-third reduction (2015) and get
to 5.7 (going by developments since 1990). • Positive view: 15/1000 = below 20/1000 level and reflects small
improvement since 1990;• Critical view: not much change since 1990, despite considerable
investments in MCH/EPI/nutrition/water and sanitation over last two decades.
• Pragmatic view: examine IMR’s two components, to ascertain developments in neonatal/post-neonatal mortality.
iv. misinformed assertions about development status of countries, including the lack of development progress made.
Two key challenges – examples, IMR
• Vanuatu (national data): 45 (1990) –> 21 (2009)• 2015 target: on track to achieve two-third reduction (2015)
and get to 15.
iv. misinformed assertions about development status of countries, including the lack of development progress made.
Two key challenges – examples, IMR
2. Methodological: choice of realistic 1990 benchmark. … too many indicators, not enough agreement ….
Statistics for Development ProgrammeSecretariat of the Pacific Community
Table 6: Comparison of Infant Mortality rate, 1990 baseline (or nearest year)
Revisiting Fiji and Vanuatu achievements
• Statistics collected (sourced) at national level;• Indicators derived at national (with assistance from regional
and other statistical TA providers) and international levels;• Indicators compiled and published nationally, regionally,
internationally.• Data management increases in complexity from statistical
collection to translation into information, involving diverse players with diverse interest:o NSOs doing their job, to the best of their ability, complying with
their mandate to produce “official statistics”;o International statistical stakeholders doing their job, complying with
their mandate(s), to assist in producing comparable information.o Somewhere, somehow, something, it seems, has gone astray with
communication and coordination
Statistics for Development ProgrammeSecretariat of the Pacific Community
Where to from here? Improve communication, coordination, data management
What tangible contribution can we make?
• Ten year Pacific Statistics Strategy, 2011 – 2020o Key focus on harmonization of statistical concepts, classifications,
systems of collections to provide core set of comparable, quality and timely statistics across key sectors – political mandate by Pacific Leaders in pacific plan
o Revamp/develop administrative databases in key sectors to facilitate regular statistical compilations, to improve sustainability of collecting/dissemination key core statistics on a more real-time basis
o Phase 1 (2011 – 2012) priorities in economic statistics , vital statistics and civil registration, health and education information systems:
Statistics for Development ProgrammeSecretariat of the Pacific Community
Where to from here? Improve communication, coordination, data management
What tangible contribution can we make?
• National Minimum Development Indicator databaseo Comprises of 192 indicators ( at the moment) across ten thematic
areas, comprising all population-based MDG indicatorso Phase 1 completed, with sourcing of 67% of 2,880 data points;o Phase 2 about to start with
o Countries reviewing their NMDI files;o SPC to review agency comments plus include some additional indicators
from key technical and financial partners (so far Pacific-based UNDAF group , UNFPA, UNICEF, WHO, ILO; FAO; AusAID and ADB)
o Phase 3: gradual incorporation of indicators pertaining to critical cross-cutting themes such as climate change and food security;
Statistics for Development ProgrammeSecretariat of the Pacific Community
Where to from here? Improve communication, coordination, data management
What tangible contribution can we make?
• National Minimum Development Indicator databaseo NMDI database, once Phase 2 completed in early 2012, can provide
the go-to place for Pacific island countries MDG indicators; o Provides good basis to contribute to improved statistical
communication , coordination and data management regards MDGs
Statistics for Development ProgrammeSecretariat of the Pacific Community
Where to from here? Improve communication, coordination, data management
Statistics for Development ProgrammeSecretariat of the Pacific Community
Vanuatu - PD.5.2.1 – Current Primary School Enrolment (MDG.2.1)
Statistics for Development ProgrammeSecretariat of the Pacific Community
Tonga - H.4.3 – Contraceptive Prevalence Rate (MDG.5.3)Tonga - H.4.4 – Adolescent Birth Rate (Teenage Fertility Rate) (MDG.5.4)Tonga - H.4.5 – Antenatal care coverage (% of women who had at least one antenatal session with a skilled provider) (MDG 5.5)
What tangible contribution can we make?
• Improved regional statistical governance o Pacific Statistics Steering Committee, comprising of 6 Government
statisticians and four representatives of key technical (UNFPA as chair of UNDAF; University of the South Pacific) financial partners (AusAID and ADB, representing bilateral and multilateral partners) meets twice yearly to monitor implementation of Ten Year Pacific Statistics strategy
o PSSC provides forum for regular dialogue between national, regional and international statistical stakeholders
Statistics for Development ProgrammeSecretariat of the Pacific Community
Where to from here? Improve communication, coordination, data management
What tangible developments would we like to see?
• UNSD consolidation/expansion of MDG labo Recognizes importance of national data/official statistics o Adds value to UNSD MDG country database, by publishing
international and national MDG indicators side-by-side
Regional Dialogue on MDG statistics in 2012o SPC acknowledges UNSD’s proposal to collaborate in convening a
Pacific Regional MDG forum involving national and international statistical stakeholders to address Pacific-specific data management challenges pertaining to MDG statistics
o Provides timely and welcome opportunity to move forward in improving communication, coordination, data management regards MDGs.
Thank you
Statistics for Development ProgrammeSecretariat of the Pacific Community
Where to from here? Improve communication, coordination, data management