T&R2010 Exp1 6-28 · Transactions on the Lee Roy Selmon Expressway increased by 0.5 percent for...
Transcript of T&R2010 Exp1 6-28 · Transactions on the Lee Roy Selmon Expressway increased by 0.5 percent for...
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Vision & Mission Statements Board of Directors History of the Tampa Hillsborough County Expressway Authority 2010—A Year in Review Fiscal year Overview Section 1—Summary of Fiscal Year 2010 Section 2—Fiscal Year 2010 Traffic and Toll Revenue Section 3—Factors Affecting Traffic and Toll Revenue Section—4 Traffic and Revenue Forecast Section 5—Debt Service Coverage Section 6—Expense Forecasts
VISION & MISSION STATEMENT
As the owner and operator of the Selmon Expressway, the Tampa Hillsborough County Expressway Authority's (THEA) mission is to provide this region with needed trans‐portation improvements using toll revenues to integrate and enhance the region’s transportation system in a manner that complements Tampa Bay’s natural beauty, utility and functionality. With other agencies as partners, THEA is working to iden‐tify innovative multimodal solutions to address our regional transportation needs. As a transportation agency, we provide the infrastructure that gives drivers a choice in their daily lives. We are always mindful that we are an agency serving the community and as such our actions should enhance the quality of life for those who live, work and visit our area. Our vision for the Selmon Expressway system is one that
ensures a balanced network of transportation choices that support community livability and economic development. We are fully committed to making transportation decisions that provide attractive and safe streetscapes, affordability for our users, preservation of our fragile environment and cultural struc‐tures, as well as opportunities for recreation. These are concepts that were in the forefront of decision‐making with the development of the THEA‐owned Brandon Parkway and Meridian Avenue, both with their walking and cycling features and their recreational access. Community livability will continue to be a driving force for the Expressway Authority. Included in our focus on livability is an emphasis on eco‐nomic development and regional connectivity. With such strategic partners as the Florida Department of Trans‐portation and the Hillsborough Area Regional Transit, THEA continues to work to improve the movement of people and goods.
BOARD OF DIRECTORS
Stephen Diaco, Esq. Chairman
Donald Phillips Vice Chairman
Rebecca J. Smith Secretary
Joseph Waggoner Executive Director
Patrick Maguire, Esq. General Counsel
Leslie Miller Hillsborough County
Board of Commissioners
Curtis Stokes
Donald Skelton Florida Department of
Transportation
Rev. Dr. Thomas Scott Tampa City Council
LETTER FROM THE BOARD CHAIRMAN
Through the support of the community, busi‐ness leaders and elected officials combined with the hard work of the Authority staff and Board of Directors, we have accomplished some amaz‐ing things. As chairman of the board for the Tampa Hillsborough Expressway Authority (THEA), I wanted to thank our supporters and mention a few items of accomplishment. We have taken ownership of our assets ‐ the Lee Roy Selmon Expressway, Meridian Avenue, and Brandon Parkway. We have had a direct contract with an asset maintenance provider and have significantly improved our Maintenance Rating Performance score at a considerable lower cost for the last two years. Our customers have told us that they see a difference in the cleanliness of the road. We have taken ownership of our toll collection services. With the All Electronic Tolling conver‐sion, not only did we have a successful physical conversion, positive press coverage, and no toll booth‐related accidents, we’re also giving better service to our customers. All Electronic Tolling is safer – 60% of accidents happen at toll plazas; it’s faster – no more stopping at toll booths to pay; and it’s greener – without the stop‐and‐go traffic, emissions and noise are reduced. We advanced our public relations and commu‐nity outreach efforts. In the past 12‐months we spoke to over 80 civic and business groups, and worked with the Greater Brandon Arts Council to install public art on Brandon Parkway. And finally, we launched the USF / Selmon Express‐way Student Partnership. This internship and scholarship program provides financial assis‐tance and practical experience to local high school graduates and students enrolled in the College of Engineering at the University of South Florida. We also continued to build partnerships with local transportation and transit agencies. The partnership with HART resulted in a grant for an
$800,000 study of a Transit‐Owned Toll Lanes concept. This is a new transit concept developed by THEA. We have worked dili‐gently to become self sufficient and self sustaining. We are now in a much better position to help tackle the region’s transportation chal‐lenges. Our aggressive pursuit for damages over the Re‐versible Express Lanes design issues and brought back $74 million back into the Tampa Bay Community. With the $74 million settle‐ment, we restructured our debt and will be able to jointly fund a $130 million dollar project with FDOT this spring. That project will employ about 1,500 people and assure great service on the Selmon Expressway when the I‐4 Connector opens in 2013. THEA and FDOT have also made a change to our Lease‐Purchase Agreement to assure the Selmon Expressway will remain a community asset. Prior to this change, the facility would eventu‐ally have become an FDOT‐owned and operated project. This change means the region will be able to rely on the Selmon Expressway as a reve‐nue‐producing asset that will enable THEA to address future transportation needs. I want to thank the THEA Board for the mem‐bers willingness to learn about the toll business, for giving guidance and asking questions, and for generally caring about making Tampa Bay a better place to live, work and play. A special thank you to the citizens, businesses, and elected officials of Tampa Bay for their contin‐ued support of the Expressway Authority.
Transactions on the Lee Roy Selmon Expressway increased by 0.5 percent for Fiscal Year 2010 (July 1, 2009 through June 30, 2010) compared to the same period in FY2009. Toll revenues decreased slightly by 0.8% in FY2010 compared to FY2009. Table 1.1 shows the traffic and toll revenue performance from FY2005 – FY2010 and compares actual toll revenue to the previously‐forecasted revenue.
Average Toll Rates Table 1.2 shows the average toll transactions from FY2005 to FY2010. The average toll rate for the facility increased from $ .91 in FY2005 to $1.26 in FY2010 due mostly to toll rate adjustments in January 2007. This also reflects a very slight decrease from FY2009 due to the normal variation in the number of transactions at toll plazas with different toll rates.
SunPass Transactions & Revenue Figure 1‐1 shows the number of SunPass trans‐actions and related toll revenue trends. SunPass transactions grew from 22.8m in FY2009 to 23.6m in FY2010.
SECTION 1—SUMMARY OF FISCAL YEAR (FY) 2010
Table 11 Transactions and Toll Revenue Performance (thousands)
Fiscal Year
Total Transactions
Previous Forecast
Gross Toll Revenue
Previous Forecast
2005 30,685 29,200 $27,796 $27000 $7963 2.9
2006 32,222 31,100 29,320 28500 820 2.8
2007 33,664 34,400 37,308 36700 608 1.6
2008 32,652 33,700 41,455 42800 ‐1345 ‐3.2
2009 31,599 31,200 40,350 39600 750 1.9
2010 31,743 32,029 40,018 40899 ‐881 ‐2.2
Source: FTE Actuals; WSA Forecasts
Variance Amount / Percent
Table 12 Average Toll Rates (thousands)
Fiscal Year Total Transactions
Gross Toll Revenue
Average Toll
2005 30685 $27796 $0.91
2006 32222 29320 0.91
2007(1) 33664 37308 1.11
2008 32652 41455 1.25
2009 31599 20350 1.28
2010 31743 40018 1.26
Source: FTE and THEA (1) Toll Adjustment during FY 2007
Figure 11 SunPass—Annual Transactions & Toll Revenue (millions)
Transaction Type During FY2010, the method of toll collection varied de‐pending on location. The local lanes processed both SunPass and cash transactions. On the Reversible Ex‐press Lanes, tolls are collected electronically. For cus‐tomers without a SunPass, tolls are collected by video tolling – license plate photography. Table 1‐3 shows total transactions per month by pay‐ment method for FY2010.
Table 1‐4 shows the toll revenue contributions per month from SunPass and cash payments on the Sel‐mon Expressway for FY2010. Electronic collection by SunPass continued to grow in the run up to All‐Electronic Tolling in the Fall of 2010. During FY2010 SunPass collection peaked at 75.6% by revenue for the month of June.
SECTION 1—SUMMARY OF FISCAL YEAR (FY) 2010
Table 13 Transactions by Payment Method FY 2010
(thousands)
Month SunPass Cash (1) Total Percent SunPass
July 2009 1,941 699 2,640 73.5
August 1,935 688 2,623 73.8
September 1,904 653 2,557 74.5
October 1,990 693 2,683 74.2
November 1,785 633 2,418 73.8
December 1,925 395 2,620 73.5
January 2010 1,928 690 2,,618 73.6
February 1,898 671 2,569 73.9
March 2,205 750 2,955 74.6
April 2,091 699 2,790 74.9
May 1,993 662 2,655 75.1
June 1,976 639 2,615 75.6
FY 2010 Total Percent
23,571 74.3
8172 25.7
31,743 100
Source: Turnpike Enterprise Finance Office (1)Cash Transaction represent toll paying and non‐revenue transactions
Table 14 Gross Toll Revenue by Payment Method FY2010
(thousands)
Month SunPass Cash(1) Total Percent SunPass
July 2009 $2,502 $866 $3,368 74.3
August 2,480 848 3,328 74.5
September 2,447 794 3,241 75.5
October 2,531 849 3,380 74.9
November 2,274 782 3,056 74.4
December 2,446 862 3,308 73.9
January 2010 2,449 837 3,286 74.5
February 2,416 827 3,243 74.5
March 2,802 923 3,725 75.2
April 2,654 853 3,507 75.7
May 2,528 801 3,329 75.9
June 2,484 863 3,247 76.5
FY 2010 Total Percent
30,013 75%
10,005 25%
40,018 100%
Source: FDOT Office of the Comptroller (Annual Toll Revenue) and Turnpike Enterprise Finance Office (1)Cash Transaction represent toll paying and non‐revenue transactions
Toll Revenue Table 1.5 shows detailed historical traffic and toll revenue growth on the Selmon Expressway since FY2000. In the future All‐Electronic tolling will allow graduated adjustments to tolls instead of large increases seen in the past. During the past 34 years, there have been six toll increases on the Selmon Expressway.
The Selmon Expressway uses the “N minus 1” formula for vehicles. This means the toll per vehicle is the total number of axles (N) minus 1 times the toll rate.
Expenses The historical operating and maintenance (O&M) expenses for the Selmon Express‐way are shown in Table 1‐6. During FY2010 THEA carefully managed O&M expenses resulting in a reduction for the financial year compared to the past two years.
SECTION 1—SUMMARY OF FISCAL YEAR (FY) 2010
Table 15 Historical Traffic & Toll Revenue Growth
(thousands)
Transactions Toll Revenue
Fiscal Year
Toll Paying
Non Revenue
Total Percent Change
Amount Percent Change
Average Toll (1)
2000* 27,837 312 28,149 ‐2.9% 21,447 29.6% $0.77
2001 28,998 359 29,357 4.3 24,105 12.4 0.83
2002 29,982 391 30,373 3.5 24,520 1.7 0.82
2003 30,589 411 31,000 2.1 25,078 2.3 0.82
2004 30,374 382 30,756 ‐0.8 25,815 2.9 0.85
2005 29,604 1,081 30,685 ‐0.2 27,796 7.7 0.94
2006 32,088 134 32,222 5.0 29,320 5.5 0.91
2007* 33,520 144 33,664 4.5 37,308 27.2 1.11
2008 32,490 162 32,652 ‐3.0 41,455 11.1 1.28
2009 31,398 202 31,600 ‐3.2 40,350 ‐2.7 1.29
2010 31,581 162 31,743 0.5 40,018 ‐0.8 1.27
Source: FTE and FDOT Office of the Comptroller (1) Average toll represents toll revenue paid per toll paying transaction * Toll Rate Increase
Table 16 Historical Operating &Routine Maintenance Expense (thousand)
Fiscal Year
Operating Expense
Routine Maintenance Expense
Total O & M Expense
2004 $5,888 $652 $6,540
2006 5,606 919 6,525
2004 6,826 1,288 8,114
2005(1) 5,507 1,358 6,865
2006(2) 5,466 1,380 6,846
2007 6,379 2,085 8,463
2008(3) 6,618 3,410 10,028
2009 6,812 3,985 10,797
2010 6,512 3,475 9,987
Source: FDOT Office of the Comptroller and THEA (1) A prior period adjustment of $215,000 was made to FY2005 operating expenses (2) Prior period adjustment of $63.000 and $31,000 made to FY2006 operating and maintenance expenses, respectively (3) First full year of THEA‐managed operations and maintenance
Toll revenue remained steady in FY2010, collecting over $40.0 million from 31.7 million transactions. The aver‐age toll per transaction in FY2010 was $1.26. Figure 2‐1 shows the location of the interchanges and correspond‐ing toll rates.
SECTION 2—FY 2010 TRAFFIC & TOLL REVENUE
Figure 2-1 Interchanges & Toll Rates
Typical day‐of‐week traffic variations are shown in Figure 2‐2 for the West Group of toll plazas (West Toll Plaza, Plant Avenue, Willow Avenue, and 22nd Street) on the Selmon Expressway during a sample period in FY2010. The Selmon Expressway has significantly higher weekday traffic. During the economic slowdown, weekend traffic has declined.
In the West Group of toll plazas, the busiest day of the week is Friday when it averages 19 percent more than the Average Daily Traffic (ADT). Monday at the West Group carries 104 percent of the ADT whereas Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday carry between 13 and 18 percent above the ADT. The weekends shown below carry 74 per‐cent of the ADT on Saturday and 55 percent of the ADT on Sunday. Figure 2‐3 shows the average day‐of‐week traffic variation for the East Group of toll plazas (East Toll Plaza, 50th Street, and 39th Street). As with the West Group, the busi‐est day for the East Group of toll plazas is
Friday, which is 20 percent above the ADT. Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday at the East Plaza have similar characteristics as those days at the West Plaza with traffic being 11 to 17 percent above the ADT. Monday is the least busy weekday at 3 percent above the ADT. Traffic on the weekends at the East Group are similar to traffic on the weekends at the West Group with Saturdays averaging 78 percent of the ADT and Sundays averaging 57 percent of the ADT.
SECTION 2—FY 2010 TRAFFIC & TOLL REVENUE
Figure 2-2 Day-of-Week Traffic Variation—West Group
Source: THEA Feb 2010 Daily Traffic Counts
Figure 2-3 Day-of-Week Traffic Variation—East Group
Source: THEA Feb 2010 Daily Traffic Counts
Figure 2‐4 shows the average day‐of‐week traffic variations at the REL mainline toll plaza. Since the REL is predominantly a commuter road, the weekend traffic is the lowest of the three groups of toll plazas. On Saturdays, the REL only sees about 52 percent of the ADT and Sundays only carry 40 percent of the ADT. The weekdays show similar patterns as the West Group and the East Group. Thursday is the busi‐est day on the REL with average traffic at 26 percent above the ADT. Monday is the least busy weekday at 12 percent above ADT and the traffic for the remaining weekdays (Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday) vary between 23 and 26 per‐cent above the ADT. Figure 2‐5 shows the average hourly traffic variations over three weekdays in February 2010 at the West Mainline toll plaza. As to be expected, there are two peaks in each direction. In the eastbound direction, the AM peak occurs during the 7:00 AM hour with 1,636 transactions. The hour beginning at 8:00 AM is nearly as high with 1,570 transactions. The PM peak hour occurs at 5:00 PM with 2,537 transactions; the next busiest hour be‐gins at 4:00 PM with 2,176 transactions. In the westbound direction, the AM peak also occurs during the 7:00 AM hour with 1,694 transactions. The next busiest hour is 8:00 AM with 1,350 transactions. As with the eastbound direction, the PM peak occurs during the 5:00 PM hour with 1,425 transactions.
SECTION 2—FY 2010 TRAFFIC & TOLL REVENUE
Figure 2-2 Day-of-Week Traffic Variation—West Group
Source: THEA Feb 2010 Daily Traffic Counts
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Transactions
Source: THEA SS030 Report Feb 23‐25, 2010
Figure 2‐5West Mainline Toll Plaza Weekday Hourly Transaction Variations
Feb 2010
EB WB
Figure 2-5 West Mainline Toll Plaza Weekday Hourly Transaction Variations—Feb 2010
Tran
sact
ions
Time of Day
Figure 2‐6 shows the average hourly traffic variations over the same three weekdays at the East Mainline toll plaza and the REL toll area. The REL is included as both locations serve the same purpose in this type of analysis. As with the West Mainline toll plaza, there are two peaks in each direction. In the eastbound direction, the AM peak occurs at 7:00 AM with 1,005 transactions. The hour beginning at 8:00 AM is nearly as high with 988 trans‐actions recorded. The PM peak hour occurs at 4:00 PM with 3,251 transactions; the next busiest hour begins at 5:00 PM with 3,157 transactions. The combined East Mainline toll plaza and REL experience its westbound AM peak during the 7:00 AM hour with 5,435 transactions. The next highest AM hour occurs during the 8:00 AM hour with 4,364 transactions. The PM peak occurs during the 5:00 PM hour with 1,573 transactions; the next busiest PM hour occurs during the 4:00 PM hour with 1,332 transactions. The eastbound AM peak is lower than the westbound PM peak (approximately 470 transactions less) and the eastbound PM peak is lower than the westbound AM peak (approximately 2,180 transactions less). Generally speaking, these pairs of peaks (eastbound AM‐westbound PM; eastbound PM‐westbound AM) would be similar in magnitude as commuters who use the facility for their commute in one direction would also use the same route to return home in the evening. Since the eastbound direction is consistently lower, this would suggest that commut‐ers use an alternate route to this part of the Selmon Expressway or that the commuter spreads their home trips over a greater range of time when traveling eastbound (away from downtown Tampa). In conclusion, the data suggests that commuters are willing to use the Selmon Expressway while going towards downtown Tampa, i.e. on their journey to work; but they are less likely to be willing to use the Selmon while going away from downtown Tampa.
SECTION 2—FY 2010 TRAFFIC & TOLL REVENUE
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Transactions
Source: THEA SS030 Report Feb 23‐25, 2010
Figure 2‐6 East Mainline Toll Plaza & REL Weekday Hourly Transaction Variations
Feb 2010
EB
WB
Figure 2-6 East Mainline Toll Plaza & REL Weekday Hourly Transaction Variations
Feb 2010
This section reviews several key factors that might typically affect future levels of traffic and toll revenue on the Selmon Expressway, including Tampa Bay area employment, population growth, incomes, inflation, and toll rate changes. These factors are recognized in the preparation of traffic and revenue forecasts prepared by Wilbur Smith Associates, Inc. (WSA) for the Selmon Expressway and are qualified by certain assumptions that influence those forecasts. Tampa Bay Area Population Growth Traffic growth on the Selmon Expressway can be highly correlated to the population growth of west‐central Flor‐ida. The population of Hillsborough County has undergone strong growth historically with an average annual population growth rate of two percent from 1999 to 2009. However, growth has decelerated in recent years: 0.9 percent in 2008; 1.3 percent in 2009; and 1.0% in 2010. Future population projections for Hillsborough County and the surrounding counties are shown in Figure 3.1. Hillsborough County population growth is expected to return to a strong 1.6 percent average annual growth rate from 2013 through 2020. Most counties in the Tampa Bay Region Metropolitan Statistical Area (Tampa MSA) are also projected to have comparable or higher growth.
SECTION 3—FACTORS AFFECTING TRAFFIC & TOLL REVENUE
Figure 3-1 Tampa Region Population Projection 1995—2020
Economic Conditions The last three years has been difficult for the national, regional, and local economies. Transportation, in particu‐lar, saw a downturn due to worsening economic conditions and reduced vehicle miles traveled. The toll industry was also affected with many toll facilities experiencing year‐on‐year reductions in traffic and toll revenues falling well below prior growth projections. Figure 3.2 shows the economic forecast for Hillsborough County and the Tampa MSA. Based on this forecast, economic activity is expected to see a return to long‐term growth.
SECTION 3—FACTORS AFFECTING TRAFFIC & TOLL REVENUE
Figure 3-2 Tampa Region GNP 1995-2020
Employment: Commuting demand is the largest market segment for the Selmon Expressway and as such the magnitude and distribution of jobs are critical determinants of a large proportion of the customer base. Figure 3.3 shows Hillsborough County and the Tampa MSA area historical and projected employment.
The number of jobs in Hillsborough County grew steadily between 2004 and into 2007. However, since April 2008, Florida and the Tampa MSA unemployment rates have been higher than national rates. By February 2009, the unemployment rate for the Tampa MSA had reached 10.3 percent and has continued to be in double digits through October 2010 when the unemployment rate was 12.2 percent. The situation in Hillsborough County was similar with the unemployment rate reaching 10.3 percent in May 2009 and remaining in double digits with the October 2010 unemployment rate at 11.6 percent. The long‐term outlook for the Tampa MSA and for Hillsborough County is expected to begin improving from 2011. Employment is forecasted to begin an upward trend that will reach pre‐crises levels by 2013 and continue upward throughout the remaining forecast period. Housing Growth: Residential housing growth has a strong influence on the customer base of a toll facility such as the Selmon Expressway. Growth in the number of households is likely to translate directly into traffic growth. According to the Greater Tampa Association of Realtors, residential home sales through the second quarter of 2010 increased to 10,487 up from 8,803 during the same time period in 2009. This compares to 14,057 for the first two quarters of 2005.
SECTION 3—FACTORS AFFECTING TRAFFIC & TOLL REVENUE
Figure 3-3 Tampa Region Employment 1995-2020
The number of building permits issued is an indicator of the current health of the housing constructioaaaaaaaan market. According to the U.S. Census Bureau for January through December 2010, 6,500 building permits were authorized in the Tampa MSA, down from 7,010 in 2009. This compares to a peak of 34,005 annual permits in 2005. The State of Florida had 39,524 building permits approved in 2010 versus 35,858 in 2009 which are sig‐nificantly below the peak 285,062 in 2005. Fuel Prices: High gasoline prices will tend to discourage travel by motor vehicle, thus lessening the growth rate of customers on the Selmon Expressway. During FY2010, retail gasoline prices in Florida fluctuated less than in recent years. Regular grade gasoline prices varied between $2.38 and $2.89 per gallon, while premium grade gasoline prices varied between $2.62 and $3.14 per gallon. However, since the end of FY 2010 retail gasoline prices have steadily increased. By December 2010 regular grade gasoline prices exceeded $3.00 per gallon in Florida.
SECTION 3—FACTORS AFFECTING TRAFFIC & TOLL REVENUE
SECTION 4—TRAFFIC & REVENUE FORECAST
Basic Assumptions The following assumptions, which are considered reasonable by WSA for purposes of the forecast, are the basis of updated traffic and gross toll revenue estimates for the Selmon Expressway. The Selmon Expressway is assumed to provide two travel lanes in each direction, or a total of four lanes on the
lower level before the proposed viaduct widening. The Reversible Express Lanes (REL) will maintain current operating schedules.
It is assumed that, beginning in FY2011 (September 18 2010), open road tolling was implemented, supplemented
with video tolling. SunPass participation was assumed to increase after FY2011, reaching 90.0 percent by FY2015 by which time the remaining 10.0 percent was assumed to register for video tolling. Other small ad‐justments were made to reflect short‐term T&R impacts due to ORT.
Toll rates on the facility are in future year dollars and toll rate increments are applied annually based on a mini‐
mum adjustment rate of 2.5 percent from FY2013. The initial toll adjustment would be in FY2014. Rate ad‐justments are rounded to the nearest nickel. Commercial vehicle rates will be proportionately higher than passenger cars. The surcharge for video tolling was assumed to be $0.25.
Travel demand modeling was performed through estimating weekday travel on the THEA system. The Tampa
Bay Regional Planning Model (TBRPM) was used as the foundation of forecasting and refined to WSA time‐of‐day models. The socio‐economic forecasts were reviewed and adjusted by an independent economist, RPG Market Research. The revised model inputs were then implemented in obtaining the future year trips.
Future transportation projects listed in the Transportation Improvement Program (TIP) and the 2035 Long Range Transportation Plan (LRTP) were reviewed. Improvements to the present highway system in the travel corridor will be limited to those committed in the regional plan and those specific to this study. Road‐way improvements as presented in this study will be completed within or near their expected completion dates;
The I‐4/Selmon Expressway Connector was assumed to open in the month of January of FY2015. The connector
consists of the S movement, the Z movement, and the T movement. SunPass toll rates for the S and Z move‐ments were assumed at $1.00 and $0.50 in FY2015, respectively. The T movement is designed for trucks only with assumed toll rate to be $1.00 in FY2015, regardless of payment option. Assuming FDOT collects tolls on the connector, $0.50 of the $1.00 for the S movement was assumed to be apportioned to THEA in FY2015. Both THEA and FDOT will escalate the toll rates at an annual compound growth rate of 2.5 percent after FY2015. A downward adjustment is made to the transactions and revenue through FY2016 following the opening of the I‐4/SEC to reflect the “ramp‐up” effect;
The widening of the viaduct between I‐4 Connector and downtown Tampa assumed to be completed by FY2015. The THEA system will be well‐maintained, efficiently‐operated and effectively signed and promoted to encourage
maximum usage. Motor fuel will continue to remain in adequate supply and the rate of price increase will not significantly exceed
the overall rate of inflation. No local, regional or national emergency will arise which would abnormally restrict the use of motor vehicles, or
substantially alter economic activity or freedom of mobility. Any significant departure from the above basic assumptions could materially affect estimated traffic and revenue for the THEA system shown in Table 4‐1 (next page).
Table 4-1 Estimated Annual Transactions and Toll Revenue 2010-2020 (thousands)
Fiscal Year Annual Transactions % Annual (1) Revenue % Revenue per Transaction
2010(2) 31,743 $41,414 $1.30 2011(3)(4)(6) 32,100 1.2% 42,200 2.0% 1.31
2012(6) 32,800 2.1% 43,000 1.8% 1.31 2013(6) 34,000 3.7% 44,400 3.3% 1.31
2014(5)(7) 37,100 9.0% 47,500 6.9% 1.28 2015 39,500 6.6% 51,600 8.7% 1.31 2016 41,000 3.7% 54,800 6.3% 1.34 2017 42,200 3.1% 57,900 5.7% 1.37 2018 43,500 3.0% 61,200 5.6% 1.41 2019 44,700 2.8% 64,500 5.3% 1.44 2020 46,000 2.8% 68,000 5.4% 1.48
(1) Indicated, nominal revenues (2) Actual (3) Estimate (4) AET began September 2010 (5) Toll Indexing from FY 2012; 1st Adjustment FY2014 (6) I-4 / Selmon Construction Impacts FY 2011-2013 (7) I-4 / Selmon Connector assumed to open January 2010, mid FY2014
Tampa Hillsborough County Expressway Authority 1104 E. Twiggs Street
Suite 300 Tampa, FL 33602
813.272.6740 www.tampa-xway.com