Towards Realization of Earth-Scale OS
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Transcript of Towards Realization of Earth-Scale OS
Solar Rays
Generate
Control
NaturalReproduction
Heat
Mainly petroleum as the stock
Waste
Resources
Information Flow
Redirection ofEnergy Flow
Civilization
Board Workshop, WIDE Camp 2011 Spring
Towards Realization of Earth-Scale OS∼ Information Infrastructure for Post-Peak Oil/Coal Age ∼
Kenji Saito
Graduate School of Media and Governance, Keio [email protected]
Twitter: ks91020
Towards Realization of Earth-Scale OS ∼ Information Infrastructure for Post-Peak Oil/Coal Age – p.1/37
“You never change things by fighting the existingreality. To change something, build a new model thatmakes the existing model obsolete”
— Buckminster Fuller
Towards Realization of Earth-Scale OS ∼ Information Infrastructure for Post-Peak Oil/Coal Age – p.2/37
Brief History of Near Past and Future
(from an imaginary japanimation“Industrial Society Girl Madoka ⋆ Magica”)
Episode 1 “Some petroleum may have been left. . .”
Episode 2 “Economic growth is a lot of fun”
Episode 3 “I am no longer afraid of peak oil”
Episode 4 “Did you know peal coal and peak uranium?”
Episode 5 “No way we can live with 1.4kW per capita”
Episode 6 “This is absolutely wrong”
Episode 7 “Can you face the next civilization?”
Towards Realization of Earth-Scale OS ∼ Information Infrastructure for Post-Peak Oil/Coal Age – p.3/37
Part I: Rasing Questions
Pale Blue Dot
Towards Realization of Earth-Scale OS ∼ Information Infrastructure for Post-Peak Oil/Coal Age – p.4/37
Grasping Problems
Something stays invisible if you dive into theproblems
“You never change things by fighting the existing reality.”
(Fuller)
You have to push the problems away when you thinkabout them
If you keep distance with the problems and express them
in an appropriate manner, a solution will present itself
Towards Realization of Earth-Scale OS ∼ Information Infrastructure for Post-Peak Oil/Coal Age – p.5/37
Grasping Problems
Something stays invisible if you dive into theproblems
“You never change things by fighting the existing reality.”
(Fuller)
You have to push the problems away when you thinkabout them
If you keep distance with the problems and express them
in an appropriate manner, a solution will present itself
Today, Earth has problems
How far do we have to push the problems away?
Towards Realization of Earth-Scale OS ∼ Information Infrastructure for Post-Peak Oil/Coal Age – p.5/37
How about “as far as the orbit of Saturn”?
Towards Realization of Earth-Scale OS ∼ Information Infrastructure for Post-Peak Oil/Coal Age – p.6/37
PALE BLUE DOT
Photograph by the
suggestion by Carl Sagan
In February 1990, Voyager
1 looked back Earth when
it left the ecliptic plane of
the solar system
Where’s Earth?
Towards Realization of Earth-Scale OS ∼ Information Infrastructure for Post-Peak Oil/Coal Age – p.7/37
PALE BLUE DOT
WE ARE HERE
Photograph by the
suggestion by Carl Sagan
In February 1990, Voyager
1 looked back Earth when
it left the ecliptic plane of
the solar system
Where’s Earth?
Towards Realization of Earth-Scale OS ∼ Information Infrastructure for Post-Peak Oil/Coal Age – p.7/37
PALE BLUE DOT
WE ARE HERE
Speech by Sagan
“On it, everyone you love,
everyone you know,
everyone you ever heard
of, every human being who
ever was, lived out their
lives”
YouTube videohttp://bit.ly/9PApWV(full speech)
Towards Realization of Earth-Scale OS ∼ Information Infrastructure for Post-Peak Oil/Coal Age – p.8/37
Photograph of Earth Taken by Cassini, 2006
Towards Realization of Earth-Scale OS ∼ Information Infrastructure for Post-Peak Oil/Coal Age – p.9/37
Photograph of Earth Taken by Cassini, 2006
Our Spaceship EARTH
Towards Realization of Earth-Scale OS ∼ Information Infrastructure for Post-Peak Oil/Coal Age – p.9/37
Photograph of Earth Taken by Cassini, 2006
Our Spaceship EARTH
What are the sources of energy that enable us to live on the
spaceship Earth?
Towards Realization of Earth-Scale OS ∼ Information Infrastructure for Post-Peak Oil/Coal Age – p.9/37
Energy, Economy, Environment
Towards Realization of Earth-Scale OS ∼ Information Infrastructure for Post-Peak Oil/Coal Age – p.10/37
Unit System Review
1J (joule) = 1Ws (about 2.78 × 10−7kWh)Unit of energy, work or heat
Work done in applying force of 1N through a distance of 1m1kg · m2
· s−2
Work done when a small apple falls for 1m on Earth
1kJ amounts to 1 search at Google, 1MJ melts 3kg of ice
1W (watt) = 1J/sUnit of power or rate of energy conversion
A human body consumes about 100W(1 Google search in 10 seconds)
Operation Yashima (TV version) required 160GW(in reality, close to 300GW)
Towards Realization of Earth-Scale OS ∼ Information Infrastructure for Post-Peak Oil/Coal Age – p.11/37
To Grasp the Scale
Energy accumulation by phytoplankton:About 62.7TWA study claims that its 1%, 630GW, is used by fishand marine mammals to stir the oceanic water toaffect the climate on Earth
Energy accumulation by whole plants:About 120TW?About 50% of oxygen is generated byphytoplankton
Towards Realization of Earth-Scale OS ∼ Information Infrastructure for Post-Peak Oil/Coal Age – p.12/37
Energy Budget of Earth
Towards Realization of Earth-Scale OS ∼ Information Infrastructure for Post-Peak Oil/Coal Age – p.13/37
Energy Budget of Earth
174PW
The whole energy enteringEarth’s atmosphere is about174PW
Towards Realization of Earth-Scale OS ∼ Information Infrastructure for Post-Peak Oil/Coal Age – p.13/37
Energy Budget of Earth
174PW
The whole energy enteringEarth’s atmosphere is about174PW
Tidal:about 3TW/0.002%
Towards Realization of Earth-Scale OS ∼ Information Infrastructure for Post-Peak Oil/Coal Age – p.13/37
Energy Budget of Earth
174PW
The whole energy enteringEarth’s atmosphere is about174PW
Tidal:about 3TW/0.002%
Geothermal:about 23TW/0.013%
Towards Realization of Earth-Scale OS ∼ Information Infrastructure for Post-Peak Oil/Coal Age – p.13/37
Energy Budget of Earth
174PW
The whole energy enteringEarth’s atmosphere is about174PW
Tidal:about 3TW/0.002%
Geothermal:about 23TW/0.013%
Fossil fuel:about 13TW/0.007%
Towards Realization of Earth-Scale OS ∼ Information Infrastructure for Post-Peak Oil/Coal Age – p.13/37
Energy Budget of Earth
174PW
The whole energy enteringEarth’s atmosphere is about174PW
Tidal:about 3TW/0.002%
Geothermal:about 23TW/0.013%
Fossil fuel:about 13TW/0.007%
Solar radiation:about 174PW/100%
Towards Realization of Earth-Scale OS ∼ Information Infrastructure for Post-Peak Oil/Coal Age – p.13/37
Energy Budget of Earth
174PW 174PW
The whole energy enteringEarth’s atmosphere is about174PW
Tidal:about 3TW/0.002%
Geothermal:about 23TW/0.013%
Fossil fuel:about 13TW/0.007%
Solar radiation:about 174PW/100%
30% is immediately reflected,70% is absorbed and thenreradiated as infrared
Towards Realization of Earth-Scale OS ∼ Information Infrastructure for Post-Peak Oil/Coal Age – p.13/37
The Whole Picture of Civilization
Solar Energy
Humanosphere
Natural Reproduction
Heat
Mostly oil as its stock in the 20th cent.
Redirection ofEnergy Flow
Civilization consumes about12.5∼18TW (huge)
U.S.: about 3.4TW(11kW/capita)Japan: about 700GW(5.5kW/capita)
Towards Realization of Earth-Scale OS ∼ Information Infrastructure for Post-Peak Oil/Coal Age – p.14/37
The Whole Picture of Civilization
Solar Energy
Humanosphere
Natural Reproduction
Heat
Mostly oil as its stock in the 20th cent.
Redirection ofEnergy Flow
Civilization consumes about12.5∼18TW (huge)
U.S.: about 3.4TW(11kW/capita)Japan: about 700GW(5.5kW/capita)
From Holocene toAnthropocene
Towards Realization of Earth-Scale OS ∼ Information Infrastructure for Post-Peak Oil/Coal Age – p.14/37
The Whole Picture of Civilization
Solar Energy
Humanosphere
GenerateNatural Reproduction
Heat
Mostly oil as its stock in the 20th cent.
Information Flow
Redirection ofEnergy Flow
Civilization consumes about12.5∼18TW (huge)
U.S.: about 3.4TW(11kW/capita)Japan: about 700GW(5.5kW/capita)
From Holocene toAnthropocene
We control energy flow tomake information flow
Towards Realization of Earth-Scale OS ∼ Information Infrastructure for Post-Peak Oil/Coal Age – p.14/37
The Whole Picture of Civilization
Solar Energy
Humanosphere
Generate
Control
Natural Reproduction
Heat
Mostly oil as its stock in the 20th cent.
Information Flow
Redirection ofEnergy Flow
Civilization consumes about12.5∼18TW (huge)
U.S.: about 3.4TW(11kW/capita)Japan: about 700GW(5.5kW/capita)
From Holocene toAnthropocene
We control energy flow tomake information flow
That information flow controlsenergy flow
Grandeur waste and violencecaused by monetary economy
Towards Realization of Earth-Scale OS ∼ Information Infrastructure for Post-Peak Oil/Coal Age – p.14/37
The Whole Picture of Civilization
Solar Energy
Humanosphere
Generate
Control
Natural Reproduction
Heat
Mostly oil as its stock in the 20th cent.
Information Flow
Redirection ofEnergy Flow
Civilization consumes about12.5∼18TW (huge)
U.S.: about 3.4TW(11kW/capita)Japan: about 700GW(5.5kW/capita)
From Holocene toAnthropocene
We control energy flow tomake information flow
That information flow controlsenergy flow
Grandeur waste and violencecaused by monetary economy
That wouldn’t last long
Towards Realization of Earth-Scale OS ∼ Information Infrastructure for Post-Peak Oil/Coal Age – p.14/37
Peak Oil/Coal/Uranium. . .
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5177
Peak OilPoint of time when the worldproduction of oil peaks, afterwhich it enters terminal decline
Economy must declineafterward
We have already enteredpeak oil age
IEA has announced thatproduction of crude oil hasprobably peaked in 2006
In the first half of this century,all major energy resourceswill hit their production peaks
Civilization today will come toan end before we retire
Towards Realization of Earth-Scale OS ∼ Information Infrastructure for Post-Peak Oil/Coal Age – p.15/37
The Big Picture
Solar Energy
Humanosphere
Generate
Control
Natural Reproduction
Heat
Mostly oil as its stock in the 20th cent.
Information Flow
Redirection ofEnergy Flow
All problems of energy, economy and environment are caused byhow we design information flow, in particular, flow of money
Towards Realization of Earth-Scale OS ∼ Information Infrastructure for Post-Peak Oil/Coal Age – p.16/37
Part II: Proposing a Solution
Earth-Scale Operating System
Towards Realization of Earth-Scale OS ∼ Information Infrastructure for Post-Peak Oil/Coal Age – p.17/37
Viewpoint Towards the Essence of Problems and Solution
To make a sustainable civilization, we need tochange our society to consume less energy
Towards Realization of Earth-Scale OS ∼ Information Infrastructure for Post-Peak Oil/Coal Age – p.18/37
Viewpoint Towards the Essence of Problems and Solution
To make a sustainable civilization, we need tochange our society to consume less energy
Something is needed that coordinates our activitiesto share resources and energy in a wastelessmanner
Towards Realization of Earth-Scale OS ∼ Information Infrastructure for Post-Peak Oil/Coal Age – p.18/37
Viewpoint Towards the Essence of Problems and Solution
To make a sustainable civilization, we need tochange our society to consume less energy
Something is needed that coordinates our activitiesto share resources and energy in a wastelessmanner
An operating system!
An OS for a computing system is a basic software that
coordinates use of resources on computers
Likewise, with an OS to coordinate use of resource and
energy in the scale of Earth, our next civilization may
become able to sustain low level of energy consumption
Towards Realization of Earth-Scale OS ∼ Information Infrastructure for Post-Peak Oil/Coal Age – p.18/37
An operating system (OS) for the life-support system of thespaceship Earth to function
Non-violence and peaceful resistance against the nature
Towards Realization of Earth-Scale OS ∼ Information Infrastructure for Post-Peak Oil/Coal Age – p.19/37
Earth-Scale OS
Present
Hardware
Applications
Users
OS
Human
Economy
Financial System
Human
Human Economy
Earth-Scale OS
Earth and BiodiversityEarth and Biodiversity
Near Future
Exploitation
Poor People, Nature, Life Forms and Children
Benefitsin Return
Marketing andInnovation
Towards Realization of Earth-Scale OS ∼ Information Infrastructure for Post-Peak Oil/Coal Age – p.20/37
Goal Depicted as a Science Fiction
“NEO IN WONDERLAND —A Tale of Money ThatChanged Our Future”
Genre:“Sci-Fi Monetary Fantasy”
Technology to entirelychange monetary system
Which creates a drama
Free English version
http://grsj.jp/neo.pdf(CC-BY-SA 3.0)
This is a plan
Towards Realization of Earth-Scale OS ∼ Information Infrastructure for Post-Peak Oil/Coal Age – p.21/37
Related Work
Sustainable computing
Rather is a field related to computing’s impact on the
environmentInstead, Earth-Scale OS pursues computing’scontributions to sustainability of societies
Moreover, it is designed not only as a computing system but also as asocietal system
Micro or smart grid
System to accommodate electricity
Earth-Scale OS deals with accommodation and sharing
of resources and energy on Earth in general
Platforms for Goodness (Jun Mural et.al.; proposal from G1 Summit)
A service infrastructure of Earth-Scale OSTowards Realization of Earth-Scale OS ∼ Information Infrastructure for Post-Peak Oil/Coal Age – p.22/37
Part III: Investigation
Let’s think about it together
Towards Realization of Earth-Scale OS ∼ Information Infrastructure for Post-Peak Oil/Coal Age – p.23/37
What is the Goal of Lowering Energy Consumption?
Let a necessary and sufficient rate of energyconsumption for human beings to sustain civilizationbe 10TW
This might not be low enough, but quite lower than
today’s rate
Dividing this value by the world population today, weobtain the energy budget per capita
Towards Realization of Earth-Scale OS ∼ Information Infrastructure for Post-Peak Oil/Coal Age – p.24/37
What is the Goal of Lowering Energy Consumption?
Let a necessary and sufficient rate of energyconsumption for human beings to sustain civilizationbe 10TW
This might not be low enough, but quite lower than
today’s rate
Dividing this value by the world population today, weobtain the energy budget per capita
Which is about 1.4kW
Towards Realization of Earth-Scale OS ∼ Information Infrastructure for Post-Peak Oil/Coal Age – p.24/37
Related Work – 2000-Watt Society (Switzerland)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000-watt_society
Movement to lower energy consumption in industrialcountries down to 2kW per capita by 2050
The value must have been obtained by dividingtoday’s consumption by the world population
Switzerland is a 5kW society today, was a 2kWsociety in 1960s
Towards Realization of Earth-Scale OS ∼ Information Infrastructure for Post-Peak Oil/Coal Age – p.25/37
What does 1.4kW per Capita Mean to US?
Today, Japan’s energy consumption is about 700GW
About 5.5kW per capita
To realize a 1.4kW society, we need to reduce energyconsumption down to 1
4
At the same time, if we focus on householdsituations, many houses may have already beenconsuming under 1.4kW per person
Rather, we need to reduce energy consumption insocial infrastructure, including transportation andother industries
What can be automated, and what can be social rules?
Towards Realization of Earth-Scale OS ∼ Information Infrastructure for Post-Peak Oil/Coal Age – p.26/37
Requirements for Earth-Scale OS
1. Accounting of material/energy circulation andmatching demands with supplies
2. Large-scale distributed storage for abstracting onnetworks all resources on Earth
3. Publicness as a social infrastructure
4. Resilience to be highly reliable
5. Emergence for being ready for additional resourcemanagements
6. Open source for sharing and maintainingknowledge
7. Mechanisms to act on human rules includingchanging laws
Towards Realization of Earth-Scale OS ∼ Information Infrastructure for Post-Peak Oil/Coal Age – p.27/37
Principles
Earth-Scale OS should be based on P2P (Peer-to-Peer)technologies
P2P does away with central controls, making it possible toenhance the scale of wanted services without preparingdedicated infrastructure
P2P is expected to contribute to Earth-Scale OS’srealization of requirements 3∼5, and to realize requirements1∼2 with high reliability
Propel local-production, local-consumption P2P, astrengthened concept of P2P
In addition to technological design decisions, a framework is
needed for supporting necessary policy proposals to occur
from Earth-Scale OS to realize requirement 7
Towards Realization of Earth-Scale OS ∼ Information Infrastructure for Post-Peak Oil/Coal Age – p.28/37
Functions and Layers
Identification
Location,Routing and
Sensing
Reputation
Rendezvous
Exchange
Base System
Extension
Shell
- Locating entities and their copies
- Tracking entities and their copies
- Accessing, messaging and driving entities
- Sensing entities
- Searching nearby entities
- User interfaces
- Programming with glue-languages
- Browsing nearby entities
- Matching demands and supplies
- Accounting and accommodating
- Electronizing drafts in real terms used in Kamakura-era
- Loose identification with names and IDs
- Sustaining entities
- Producers/products
- Grading entities
- Assuring correctness
- Visualizing reputations
ElectronicDrafts
Towards Realization of Earth-Scale OS ∼ Information Infrastructure for Post-Peak Oil/Coal Age – p.29/37
Summary So Far
Civilization today will come to an end before we retireResources and energy will never be depleted, butbe difficult to useForced increase in consumption will degradebiodiversity and other environmental well-beings
Towards next civilization that is sustainable, pursuingnon-violence and peaceful resistance against thenature, utilizing energy budget from the Sun
Earth-Scale OS as one of the platformsPart of it is a new monetary system
Which may protect ourselves from incomingconfusions
Towards Realization of Earth-Scale OS ∼ Information Infrastructure for Post-Peak Oil/Coal Age – p.30/37
Is it possible?
Towards Realization of Earth-Scale OS ∼ Information Infrastructure for Post-Peak Oil/Coal Age – p.31/37
“. . .we may discover how it may be accomplished byour own directly-seized initiative, undertaken andsustained without any further authority than that ofour function in universe, where the most ideal is themost realistically practical.”
— Buckminster Fuller
Towards Realization of Earth-Scale OS ∼ Information Infrastructure for Post-Peak Oil/Coal Age – p.32/37
Part IV: Workshop
Let’s make it together
Towards Realization of Earth-Scale OS ∼ Information Infrastructure for Post-Peak Oil/Coal Age – p.33/37
Platforms for Goodness
Jun Murai et. al.; a proposal from G1 Summit
Effort to make sensory information from many layersof (privately owned) infrastructures publicly availableas platforms to host various applications
Weathernews (climate prediction with wisdom of crowd)
Internet Cars
Observation of human movements by NTT docomo
Sensory information from Kuroneko Yamato
. . . and so on
Fights against regulations
Towards Realization of Earth-Scale OS ∼ Information Infrastructure for Post-Peak Oil/Coal Age – p.34/37
Efforts by Weathernews
Predict climates by analyzing reports from payingmembers
“In conventional weather forecasts, we haveout-sourced information that is coherent to ourlives. . . We would like ourselves to sense changessurrounding our bodies by ourselves”
“We need platforms made out of connected cloudsthat enable us to decide by ourselves. . . Thingswould go wrong when we start to think that onesingle complete platform is needed”
— Tomohiro Ishibashi, Director, Weathernews
Towards Realization of Earth-Scale OS ∼ Information Infrastructure for Post-Peak Oil/Coal Age – p.35/37
To Map Weathernews’ Efforts on Functions and Layers
Identification
Location,Routing and
Sensing
Reputation
Rendezvous
Exchange
Base System
Extension
Shell
- Locating entities and their copies
- Tracking entities and their copies
- Accessing, messaging and driving entities
- Sensing entities
- Searching nearby entities
- User interfaces
- Programming with glue-languages
- Browsing nearby entities
- Matching demands and supplies
- Accounting and accommodating
- Electronizing drafts in real terms used in Kamakura-era
- Loose identification with names and IDs
- Sustaining entities
- Producers/products
- Grading entities
- Assuring correctness
- Visualizing reputations
ElectronicDrafts
Towards Realization of Earth-Scale OS ∼ Information Infrastructure for Post-Peak Oil/Coal Age – p.36/37
Workshop Subjects
1) Design a platform to collect climate informationthat everyone sees, hears and feels individually
2) Connect the inputs from the platform to thefollowing outputs
a) Visualization of Earthly environmentb) Mitigation of natural disastersc) Control of energy
Towards Realization of Earth-Scale OS ∼ Information Infrastructure for Post-Peak Oil/Coal Age – p.37/37