Towards an Hydrological Qualification of the Simulated Rainfall in Mountainous Areas Eddy Yates,...
Transcript of Towards an Hydrological Qualification of the Simulated Rainfall in Mountainous Areas Eddy Yates,...
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Towards an Hydrological Qualification of the Simulated Rainfall
in Mountainous Areas
Eddy Yates, Sandrine Anquetin, Jean-Dominique Creutin
Laboratoire d’étude des Transferts en Hydrologie et Environnement, Grenoble, France
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Cévennes-Vivarais : a region prone to flash floods
• Objective : forecast of these flash floods.
• We focus here on the precipitation forecast.
Introduction Method Results Conclusions
• Watersheds– 100 to 1000 km2
– specific outflows of up to 5 m3s-1km-2
• Storms– 300-400 mm in 6-12 h. over some
100s km2
HYDRAM Water depth seen by the Nîmes radar (Météo-France)October 6, 2001 Vidourle, October 6 – 7, 2001
Q~ 100 Q mean
300 mm9 h
Hilly region between the Mediterranean sea and the Massif Central. Rainy autumns.
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Precipitation forecast model
We use Meso-NH (Météo-France, CNRS) : a meso-scale non-hydrostatic model a nested configuration. The finest grid has a
2.5 km resolution which allows an explicit resolution of the convection
Introduction Method Results Conclusions
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Reference observed rain fields
We use kriging : an exact interpolator it takes into account the statistical structure
of the rain-gauge data it gives an estimation of the reliability of the
interpolation (estimation variance)
Simulation and observation are observed for 1h and 11h cumulated rainfall.
Introduction Method Results Conclusions
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Cases studied
Two simulations with very different qualities.
The point is : “how much better” is the better simulation ? is it better for hydrological purposes too ?
Introduction Method Results Conclusions
1995 : Gardon d’Anduze 2001 : Vidourle
Bad localisation Not enough precipitation simulated (maximum cumulated rainfall
of 160 mm vs. 260 mm)
Observations Simulation
2001
Observations SimulationQuite a good localisation
Not enough precipitation simulated (maximum cumulated rainfall of 100 mm vs. 170 mm)
1995
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MethodIntroduction Method Results Conclusions
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MethodIntroduction Method Results Conclusions
R²(area)
R²(area)
Observation
Forecast
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MethodIntroduction Method Results Conclusions
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R²
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estimation error limit
point to point correlation limit
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Area (km²)
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Evolution of the correlation with the area
Introduction Method Results Conclusions
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1995 2001
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1995 11 h cumulated rainfall
Lower short-range accuracy for short time accumulation
1995 1 h cumulated rainfall
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Limits of the methodIntroduction Method Results Conclusions
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# pe
r cla
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# p
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# p
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lass
2001 1995
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Conclusions, perspectives
• The method can discriminate good forecasts from very bad forecasts
• We need other cases to test the method• The method must be tested with distributed data
too (radars)• Next step : use of TOPODYN (LTHE), a
hydrologic model from the TOPMODEL family. It considers several scales of the watersheds.
Introduction Method Results Conclusions
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Thank you