Towards an energy efficient and climate compatible future ......0. 5. 10. 15. 20. 25. 1990. 1995....
Transcript of Towards an energy efficient and climate compatible future ......0. 5. 10. 15. 20. 25. 1990. 1995....
-
|| 1
Towards an energy efficient and climate compatible future Swiss transportation systemSCCER School 2017October 20, 2017 - Engelberg
Presentation: Lukas Küng, PhD Candidate of LAV Energy Systems Research GroupMaterial: L. Küng, G. Georges, K. Boulouchos, SCCER Mobility
Lukas Küng 20.10.17
-
The current Situation
-
||
Why focus on Mobility? large impact
Transportation Sector (relative to other sectors): highest CO2 emissions
2015 (BAFU): 45.6% of national emissions (incl. int. aviation)
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
other sectorsothers
Source: BAFU CO2-Statistik, April 2017 & BFS Gesamtenergiestatistik der Schweiz 3Lukas Küng 20.10.17
-
||
0
5
10
15
20
25
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Ann
ual C
O2
emis
sion
(dire
ct) [
Mt/y
r]
Source: BAFU, Entwicklung der Treibhausgasemissionen der Schweiz 1990-2015, https://www.bafu.admin.ch/dam/bafu/de/dokumente/klima/fachinfo-daten/entwicklung_der_emissionenvontreibhausgasenseit1990april2016.xlsx.download.xlsx/entwicklung_der_emissionenvontreibhausgasenseit1990.xlsx
Service and businesses
Industrie
Households
+ +Mobility (incl. int. aviation)
4Lukas Küng 20.10.17
Why focus on Mobility? large impact
https://www.bafu.admin.ch/dam/bafu/de/dokumente/klima/fachinfo-daten/entwicklung_der_emissionenvontreibhausgasenseit1990april2016.xlsx.download.xlsx/entwicklung_der_emissionenvontreibhausgasenseit1990.xlsx
-
||
Why focus on Mobility? large impact
Transportation Sector (relative to other sectors): highest CO2 emissions
2015 (BAFU): 45.6% of national emissions (incl. int. aviation)
highest demand in final energy2015 (BFS): 36% of national energy demand (households: 27.7%)
extreme dependency on fossil products2015 (BFS): 95.1% of energy demand based on oil
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
other sectorsothers
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
diesel gasoline kerosene
electricity
gas + other renewables
Source: BAFU CO2-Statistik, April 2017 & BFS Gesamtenergiestatistik der Schweiz 5Lukas Küng 20.10.17
-
||
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Hydrogen Gasoline Diesel LPG Ethanol CNG Li-ion Battery
Ener
gy c
arrie
r vol
ume
and
mas
s
kg L
energycarriermass and volumefor travelling 100 km
~5 h
~1.3 h
~15 s
Liquid fuels have both excellent
specific and volum. energy densities
Liquid fuels are easy to handle and
contain
Refueling is > 1000 times faster than
recharging
6
Liquid hydrocarbon fuels a perfect match for mobile applications
Lukas Küng 20.10.17
-
Trends / Evolution business as usual
-
||Source: A. Schäfer, D.G. Victor, The future mobility of the world population, Transp. Res. Part A Policy Pract. 34 (2000) 171–205.
8Lukas Küng 20.10.17
Evolution of mobility demand? average travel budget +/- global constant
-
||Source: A. Schäfer, D.G. Victor, The future mobility of the world population, Transp. Res. Part A Policy Pract. 34 (2000) 171–205.
9Lukas Küng 20.10.17
Time is BIP independent, Distance is not wealth leads to increasing mobility demand
-
||Source: ARE, Perspektiven des Schweizerischn Personen und Gütervverkehrs bis 2040 10Lukas Küng 20.10.17
Switzerland national transport perspectives
-
KlimapolitikClimate policy Road to sustainability
-
||
Time horizon for decarbonizing: CO2 Budget
IPCC 2°C (66%) world carbon budget in 2010: 1000 Gt CO2
«per-capita» distribution results in 1.14 Gt CO2 for Switzerland
Assuming linear reduction: Budget will last until 2060
Road-based mobility sector must contribute with same rate
12Lukas Küng 20.10.17
-
||
The 3 levers for CO2 reduction in mobility sector
13Lukas Küng 20.10.17
«Mobility-pricing»Spatial planningTeleworking/shopping«Sharing»Improved Components«Light weighting»Smaller vehiclesHybridization
Natural GasSynthetic fuelsHydrogenElectricity
year
~15 years
decades
-
KlimapolitikIs it really so easy?
-
|| 15Lukas Küng 20.10.17
-
KlimapolitikWe need strategic planningWhat are potential impacts?
-
||
Mobility system consisting of demand and supply Bottom-up representation
Focus on: Passenger cars Isolated Interventions: change of “status-quo”, apply to the maximum No rebound effects, technology acceptance or costs are considered Cost function: Additional electricity consumption of mobility sector
What are maximum reduction potentials?
useful energy end energyvkm CO2
PE
17Lukas Küng 20.10.17
-
||
Demand: Mikrozensus Mobilität und Verkehr 2010National survey on Mobility Demand: profiles, weighting factors and vehicle information
Observed demand(daily mobility) 62’000 people
Aggregate on National Level(annual, population)
MassFuel typeDisplacement volume….
18Lukas Küng 20.10.17
-
||
From vkm to final energy Vehicle Energy Demand Simulation
Aim: fast but based on physical concepts Propulsive vehicle force:
Require Driving Cycle (NEDC, WLTP) Conversion Efficiency based on mean
Willans-Approach dynamometer measurements of Empa
𝐹𝐹𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 𝑣𝑣, �̇�𝑣 = 𝒎𝒎𝑽𝑽 ⋅ �̇�𝒗 +12⋅ 𝜌𝜌𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑚𝑚 ⋅ 𝒄𝒄𝒅𝒅 ⋅ 𝑨𝑨𝒇𝒇 ⋅ 𝒗𝒗2 + 𝒄𝒄𝒓𝒓 ⋅ 𝒎𝒎𝑽𝑽 ⋅ 𝑔𝑔
Rolling resistance (𝐹𝐹𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑎𝑎𝑟𝑟 )
Aerodynamic drag (𝐹𝐹𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 )
Acceleration (𝐹𝐹𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎)
Rb_3 Rb_2
Rb_1
EUDC
CADC_3BAB
Ra_1
Ra_2
CADC_2Ra_3
FTP_3CADC_1
FTP_2
y = 2.9215x + 6.3174R2 = 0.9971
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Mean pos. wheel-power in kWM
ean
chem
. pow
er in
kW
45%
35%30%25%20%15%
19Lukas Küng 20.10.17Source: C. Bach, P. Soltic, CO2 Reduction and Cost Efficiency Potential of Natural Gas Hybrid Passenger Cars, SAE International (2011) 1-10.
-
KlimapolitikExample:Change in Mobility behavior
-
||
Demand: short car trips bicycle
21Lukas Küng 20.10.17
-
KlimapolitikExample:Change in Mobility supply
-
||
Status-Quo:Diesel + Gasoline
1) Hybridization:Substitute entire fleet
2) Fuel Switch to CNG
Intervention: Hybridization and compressed natural gas (CNG)
23Lukas Küng 20.10.17
-
||
Status-Quo:Diesel + Gasoline
Battery electric vehiclesSubstitute where possible
Intervention: Battery electric vehicles (BEV)
24Lukas Küng 20.10.17
-
||
Gas hybrid
Plug-in gas hybrid vehicles:Substitute entire fleet
Intervention: Plug-in hybrid electric gas vehicles (PHEV CNG)
25Lukas Küng 20.10.17
-
||
Status-Quo:Diesel + Gasoline
Fuel cell electric vehicles:Substitute entire fleet
Intervention: Fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV)
26Lukas Küng 20.10.17
-
||
Alternative technologies exist for passenger cars! Two reduction paths: evolutionary and disruptive
Main challenges: Costs and speed of transition Infrastructure
Passenger cars ≈ 15 years Trucks & busses ≈ 10-20 years Ships & airplanes ≈ 20-30 years Electricity generation & power plants ≈ 20-50 years
Acceptance and availability (policy) Large burden for electricity supply;
parallel evolution of energy supply and mobility sector required
Alternative technologies
27Lukas Küng 20.10.17
-
||
Alternative technologies exist for passenger cars! Two reduction paths: evolutionary and disruptive
Not addressed: effects of vehicle usage, life time and embedded emissions
Important: passenger cars are one part of the mobility sector Heavy-duty freight trucks transportation occurs globally
International Aviation Maritime freight transport
Alternative technologies
28Lukas Küng 20.10.17
-
||
Long-range, heavy-duty global transport modes
Mode /sector
2010 share of transport GHG
emissions
Growth 2010-2015
Projected increase 2030(compared to 2010)
Projected share 2030 (if all other transport sector
emissions stay constant)
Passengerair travel 10.6% 37.5% (pkm) 3.57 x 27%
Maritimefreight 9.3% 23.1% (tkm) 2.3 x 16%
source: IPCC 2014
Direct electrification not possible in these two sectors renewable chemical energy carriers (H2, CxHy) will be a MUST
The global challenge
Lukas Küng 20.10.17 29
-
||
Decarbonization of the transport sector is an absolute necessity, but also a huge challenge (in Switzerland and worldwide)
Innovation on both the demand and supply side must be pursued in parallel
Technology will be crucial – evolutionary and disruptive paths must be well orchestrated for optimal CO2 reduction trajectories
Socio-economic policy must be designed in line with these targets
Conclusion & Outlook
30Lukas Küng 20.10.17
Towards an energy efficient and climate compatible future Swiss transportation systemThe current Situation�Why focus on Mobility?� large impactSlide Number 4Why focus on Mobility?� large impactLiquid hydrocarbon fuels� a perfect match for mobile applicationsTrends / Evolution� business as usualSlide Number 8Slide Number 9Slide Number 10KlimapolitikTime horizon for decarbonizing: CO2 Budget�The 3 levers for CO2 reduction in mobility sector �KlimapolitikSlide Number 15KlimapolitikWhat are maximum reduction potentials?�Demand: Mikrozensus Mobilität und Verkehr 2010�National survey on Mobility Demand: profiles, weighting factors and vehicle informationFrom vkm to final energy� Vehicle Energy Demand SimulationKlimapolitikDemand: short car trips bicycleKlimapolitikIntervention: Hybridization and compressed natural gas (CNG) Intervention: Battery electric vehicles (BEV)�Intervention: Plug-in hybrid electric gas vehicles (PHEV CNG)Intervention: Fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV)�Alternative technologies�Alternative technologies�Slide Number 29Slide Number 30