“Towards a Post-Ethnic Future”“Towards a Post-Ethnic Future”

Presentation by Joel Kotkin, Irvine Senior Fellow, New America Foundation,

CRE High Level Conference Park City, UtahJuly 15, 2006

Essence of Post-Ethnic VisionEssence of Post-Ethnic Vision

“America is the Race of Races”

Walt Whitman,Leaves of Grass, 1855

Post-Ethnic PerspectivesPost-Ethnic Perspectives• New immigrant waves have

always unsettled cultural norms; reshaped economic and political life

• Over time, a new synthesis emerged, with addition of newcomers

• Current wave unprecedented in diversity

• Newcomers reshaping economy, society

• Long-term: Emergence of a new, post-ethnic, post-racial perspective

The First Wave 1640-1840The First Wave 1640-1840

• Germans constituted close to a majority in colonial Pennsylvania

• Non-English accounted for one-third of signers of Declaration of Independence

• American Revolution accelerated disestablishment of Anglican Church and greater religious diversity

Colonial Observations: Colonial Observations: “Why should

Pennsylvania, founded by the English, be becoming a Colony of Aliens, who will shortly be so numerous as to Germanize us instead of our Anglifying them?

-Benjamin Franklin

Early American Observations:Early American Observations:

“…hordes of wild Irishmen [and] the turbulent and disorderly of all parts of the world [who] come here with a view to disturb our tranquility…”

-Harrison Otis of Massachusetts

calling for a ban on immigration for

Europe

Second Wave Immigration (1840-1880)Second Wave Immigration (1840-1880)• Massive wave of German

and Irish immigration

• Key to settlement of many eastern cities as well as the Midwest

• Reaction: Rise of Know-Nothing Movement

• Immigrants spark industrial revolution, both providing labor and expertise

Third Wave Immigration (1880-1920)Third Wave Immigration (1880-1920)

• Highest percentage of foreign born population

• New large immigration from outside Western Europe, predominately Italy, the Balkans, Eastern Europe, as well as Asia

• New immigrants dominate politics in many big cities, spark new industries such as garments, movies, intensive agriculture, fishing and franchise banking

Third Wave ReactionsThird Wave Reactions

• Powerful nativist reaction; what Henry James called “this sense of dispossession” for old Anglo elite

• Italians described in 1875 by New York Times as “the Chinese of Europe”, adding it was “perhaps hopeless to civilize , or keeping them in order, except by the arm of the law”

Science Gets into the ActScience Gets into the Act

Psychologist Henry Goddard examining immigrants at Ellis Island, 1912

87% of Russians, 80% of Hungarians, 79% of Italians, 83% of Jews classified as “feeble-minded”

The Current Wave (1970-today) is more of the same and even more…The Current Wave (1970-today) is more of the same and even more…

• Immigrants Drive Next 100 Million by 2050…key to divergence from Europe, east Asia

• Ethnic diversity has become wider and deeper

• Immigrants spark revival in urban and some suburban economies

• Economy more complex and more difficult for less skilled immigrants

• Mass media, telecommunications popular culture accelerate cultural mixture yet allow for maintenance of cultural ties abroad

• Long term Perspective: Post-ethnic future

9.210.3

13.5

11.610.3

9.7 9.6

14.1

19.8

32.5

13.914.214.8

13.614.7

13.2

11.6

8.8

6.9

5.44.7

6.2

7.9

11.5

1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2002

Foreign Born Population in millions

Percent of Total Population64% Increase

U.S. Census Bureau, 2000

Immigration Is Driving American DemographyImmigration Is Driving American Demography

U.S. Census Bureau, 2002 Population Estimates

44%50%

69%

1990'S Immigration

1990's Immigration plusbirths

1990's Immigration plusbirths to all immigrants

US Pop. Growth 1990’s Immigrants Births to 1990’s Immigrants

Share of Pop. Growth

25,572 11,206 44%

25,572 11,206 1,663 50%

Immigrants and Their Offspring Drove Over Half of the Immigrants and Their Offspring Drove Over Half of the Country’s Growth During the 1990’s…Country’s Growth During the 1990’s…

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

0

50,000,000

100,000,000

150,000,000

200,000,000

250,000,000

300,000,000

350,000,000

400,000,000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2030 2050

More Crowding to Come: US Population Growth 1960-2050More Crowding to Come: US Population Growth 1960-2050

Source: Bureau of the Census, CensusScope

Minorities Drive the Next 100 MillionMinorities Drive the Next 100 Million

Source: McLeod (1996)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

White Black Hispanic Asian AmericanIndian

1995 2050

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

U.S. Australia Japan Korea UK Canada Germany

Immigrants help drive higher birthrates Plunging Birthrates/Aging Populations

Immigrants help drive higher birthrates Plunging Birthrates/Aging Populations

Source – indexmundi.com

Birth Rates per 1000

Healthier Long Term Demographics—a Younger Future

Population Growth Rates, 2004

Healthier Long Term Demographics—a Younger Future

Population Growth Rates, 2004

0.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.700.800.901.00

U.S.Canada

Australia

China

Korea

U.K.Japan

Germany

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

U.S.Japan

Canada

U.K.Korea

China

Australia

Germany

2020 2050

Getting Older SlowerGetting Older Slower

Population Over 65

Source: CIA

50%50%

Built Before 2000 Built After 2000Northeast Midwest West South Total

6.4

25.7

58.9In 2030, about half of the buildings in which Americans live, work, and shop

will have been built after 2000.

In 2030, about half of the buildings in which Americans live, work, and shop

will have been built after 2000.

Source: Toward a New Metropolis: The Opportunity to Rebuild America, p.v

Regional ImpactRegional Impact

• Strong Presence in key urban areas

• Rapid Movement into suburbs

• Increasing presence in South, Intermountain West and other non-traditional immigrant areas

Area 2000 Population Net Change 1990 - 2000

Percent of Net Change Due to Nonwhite Pop.

Growth

United States 281,421,906 32,712,033 65%Northeast 53,594,378 2,785,149 100%Midwest 64,392,776 4,724,144 62%South 100,236,820 14,790,890 52%West 63,197,932 10,411,850 69%North Carolina

8,049,313 1,420,676 52%

Net Population Change Attributable to Non-White Population Growth, April 1, 1990 to April 1, 2000

Net Population Change Attributable to Non-White Population Growth, April 1, 1990 to April 1, 2000

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Census 2000 Redistricting Data (P.L. 94-171) Summary File and U.S. Census Bureau, 1990 Census

“Majority Minority” States“Majority Minority” States

Hispanic Magnet States In the U.S. , 2000 Census

1990 - 2000 Greatest Hispanic Gainers1990 - 2000 Greatest Hispanic Gainers

1. Los Angeles 1,819,370

2. New York 992,185

3. Chicago 600,810

4. Dallas 594,836

5. Houston 575,098

6. Miami 501,543

Source: William H. Frey, analysis of 2000 Census

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

California Nevada Michigan

Under 25 25-44 45-64 65+

Growth by Age, 2000-2010Growth by Age, 2000-2010

Source: William H. Frey

Source: William H. Frey, analysis of 2000 Census

Up-and-Coming Hispanic Growth MagnetsUp-and-Coming Hispanic Growth Magnets

0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500% 600% 700%

11. Salt Lake City

10. Grand Rapids

9. Reno

8. Minn-St.Paul

7. Orlando

6. Portland, OR

5. Las Vegas

4. Atlanta

3. Raleigh

2. Charlotte

1. Greensboro

2000 -- Populations greater than 50,000

The New Melting PotRanked by Percentage Change

of Immigrants, 1994-99

The New Melting PotRanked by Percentage Change

of Immigrants, 1994-99State Growth

North Carolina 73

Nevada 60

Kansas 54

Indiana 50

Minnesota 43

Virginia 40Maryland 39Arizona 35Utah 31Oregon 26

North CarolinaNet Population Change by Race, 1990-2000

North CarolinaNet Population Change by Race, 1990-2000

Total 8,049,313 1,420,676 21.4

White 5,647,155 676,028 18.6

Black 1,723,301 274,159 18.9

Native American 95,333 16,799 20.8

Asian 112,416 63,799 131.2

Pacific Islander 3,165 1,189 68.2

Hispanic 378,963 302,237 393.9

Other 9,015 6,896 325.4

U.S. Population in Urban, Suburban, & Rural Areas U.S. Population in Urban, Suburban, & Rural Areas

Peo

ple

(mill

ions

)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 1999

Suburban Urban Rural

1950-1999Millions

Minorities to suburbsMinorities to suburbs

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

All Races NH Whites All Minorities NH Blacks NH Asians Hispanics

1990 2000

Percentage of Population Residing In Suburbs by Race/Ethnicity 1990-2000

The San Fernando Valley is now the

Mestizo Valley.The San Fernando Valley is now the

Mestizo Valley.3.5%0.2%

0.1%

9.3%45.0%

3.6%

37.8%

0.2%

White 45%

American Indian and AlaskaNative 0.2%

Hispanic 37.8%

Black or African American3.6%

Pacific Islander 0.1%

Asian 9.3%

Other Race 0.2%

2 Or More Races 3.5%

Latinos Dominate New Demographics in the Inland Empire of California

Latinos Dominate New Demographics in the Inland Empire of California

18.63 26.5037.76

0%10%

20%30%

40%

50%60%

70%80%

90%

100%

1980 1990 2000

Hispanic Population

Total Population

Source: Census 2000 analyzed by the Social Science Data Analysis Network (SSDAN).

Demographic Change in Bergen-PassaicDemographic Change in Bergen-Passaic

Diversity in Houston’s fast growing suburbs

Diversity in Houston’s fast growing suburbs

Source: U.S. Census

Fort Bend County, Texas United States

Economic Impacts of New ImmigrationEconomic Impacts of New Immigration• Fast-growing retail

markets

• The New American Family

• Increase in home ownership

• Strong in high-wage and low-wage economies

• Possible impact on class dynamics

Gross Product Comparisons, 2003 (in Billions) World rankWorld rank

11

22

33

(6)(6)

44

55

66

77

United States

Japan

Germany

United Kingdom

France

U.S. Ethnic

Italy

China

$10,882

$4,326

$1,795

$2,401

$1,748

$1,685

$1,466

$1,410

Source: World Bank Indicators database, World Bank, September 2004 and Selig Center for Economic Growth, University of Georgia “The Multicultural Economy 2003”

If the U.S. ethnic purchasing power was represented separately, it would If the U.S. ethnic purchasing power was represented separately, it would be the 6be the 6thth largest national economy in the world largest national economy in the worldIf the U.S. ethnic purchasing power was represented separately, it would If the U.S. ethnic purchasing power was represented separately, it would be the 6be the 6thth largest national economy in the world largest national economy in the world

Gross Product Comparisons, 2003 (in Billions) World rankWorld rank

Source: World Bank Indicators database, World Bank, September 2004 and Selig Center for Economic Growth, University of Georgia “The Multicultural Economy 2003”

If the U.S. Hispanic purchasing power was represented separately, it If the U.S. Hispanic purchasing power was represented separately, it would be the largest Latin American economy in the world.would be the largest Latin American economy in the world.If the U.S. Hispanic purchasing power was represented separately, it If the U.S. Hispanic purchasing power was represented separately, it would be the largest Latin American economy in the world.would be the largest Latin American economy in the world.

1010

1515

3535

(1)(1)

4040

4444

4646

U.S. Hispanic

Mexico

Brazil

Argentina

Venezuela

Colombia

Chile

Peru

$653

$626

$130

$492

$85

$78

$72

$61 5151

Ethnic Purchasing Power More Than Doubled Since 1990Ethnic Purchasing Power More Than Doubled Since 1990

Source: Selig Center for Economic Growth, Terry College of Business, University of Georgia (2004)

Spending Power by Ethnic Groups (in Billions) 1990 – 2004 with 2009 projectionsSpending Power by Ethnic Groups (in Billions) 1990 – 2004 with 2009 projections

$118

$222

$318

$363.2

$686.3

$723.1

$528.2

$992.3

$964.6

1990 2004 2009

African American

U.S. Hispanic

Asian/Pacific Islander

However, there are challenges to greater entryway into mainstream American society.

Among the most serious challenges is achieving homeownership and business ownership—the cornerstone of the American Dream.

Political issues also abound, from overcoming the traditional black/white racial politics to the reaction to 9-11

In Short: Latinos and other immigrants are on their way to reaching the

American Mainstream

In Short: Latinos and other immigrants are on their way to reaching the

American Mainstream

Families on the RiseFamilies on the Rise

-2.30% -1.80%

5.70%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000

Analysis by William Frey

Whose Kids?Traditional Family Households

Whose Kids?Traditional Family Households

22.8%

16.0%

33.4%35.8%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

White Black Asian Hispanic

Analysis by William Frey

Strong Household Growth Has Driven the Increase in Minority

Homeowners Since 1994

Strong Household Growth Has Driven the Increase in Minority

Homeowners Since 1994

0

1

2

3

4

5

Asians/Others Blacks Hispanics Whites

Contribution of household growth Contribution of rising homeownership rate

Millions of Homeowners

1. Garcia

2. Lee

3. Rodriguez

4. Kim

5. Hernandez

6. Lopez

7. Gonzalez

8. Martinez

9. Smith

10. Perez

1. Garcia

2. Hernandez

3. Lopez

4. Martinez

5. Smith

6. Gonzalez

7. Rodriguez

8. Lee

9. Kim

10. Johnson

1. Nguyen

2. Wong

3. Lee

4. Chen

5. Tran

6. Johnson

7. Smith

8. Singh

9. Garcia

10. Martinez

Northern California Southern California Los Angeles County

Source: California Association of REALTORS

Top Ten Home-Buyer Surnames (2000)Top Ten Home-Buyer Surnames (2000)

57%

65%

57%

41% 39%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

AllHouseholds

White Asian Latino Black

Source: California Budget Project analysis of the Current Population Survey 2000

Fewer than half of California’s Latino-headed households owned their own homes (41%).

The national average is 68%.

Fewer than half of California’s Latino-headed households owned their own homes (41%).

The national average is 68%.

California's Homeownership Rates by Ethnicity (2000)

Source: William H. Frey; Milken Institute

Class Distinctions:

Median Household Income, 1999 Class Distinctions:

Median Household Income, 1999

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Black Hispanic White

Married Couples Male Head Female Head

Earnings (in Thousands)

Educational Attainment by RaceAge 25-64, Los Angeles Metro

Educational Attainment by RaceAge 25-64, Los Angeles Metro

Less than High School

High School Grad Some College College Grad

White Black Asian Hispanic

Towards the Future: Post-Ethnic AmericaTowards the Future: Post-Ethnic America

• Rapid Growth of Mixed Race couples particularly with 2nd Generation

• Latinos and Asians “mess up” being white

• Universal trend towards English dominance

• Cultural values overwhelm ethnic ones

• America emerges, intact, just more mestizo in its culture

When the kids get together…something happens…

When the kids get together…something happens…

• Mixed race designation is officially at 1.3 percent

• But intermarriage rates are up, particularly in second generation

• Mixed race portion of population should explode over the next decade

Percentage of Marriages That Are Mixed Race

Breakout of Mixed-Race Combinations in Selected States

Intermarriage rates in Los Angeles Five County area

Intermarriage rates in Los Angeles Five County area

31.23%

34.14%

7.26%11.50%

22.12%

30.60%

5.14%

15.93%

8.31%

5.45%

8.61%

6.34%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

US bornLatino

Foreign bornLatino

US bornAsian

Foreign bornAsian

AfricanAmerican

US bornWhite

Male Female

61%18%

16%

5%

White Hispanic

African American Asian

70%

13%

13%

4%

Under 18 Population

The Under 18 Population Has Already Become very The Under 18 Population Has Already Become very Multicultural…Multicultural…

Source: Census 2000

Total Population

The Millennial Generation is the Most Diverse in American HistoryThe Millennial Generation is the Most Diverse in American History

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91

Percent of U.S. Population That Is African American, Hispanic, Asian Pacific Islander, American Percent of U.S. Population That Is African American, Hispanic, Asian Pacific Islander, American Indian, and Other; By Age – December 2004Indian, and Other; By Age – December 2004

Current Population Survey, U.S. Census Bureau, Dec. 2004

Echo Boomers

Generation X

Baby Boomers

Pre-Baby Boomers

Being White is not what it used to be.Being White is not what it used to be.• 50% of Latinos call themselves white

• Asians out-perform “majority” in terms of occupation, income and education

• Two-thirds of 28 million foreign born people in 2000 consider themselves white, up from half in 1990

A Majority of Younger Hispanics are Already Second Generation

60%

15%17%

53%

23%

32%

<19 Years 19+ Years

Foreign Born

2nd Generation

3rd Generation

Current Population Survey, US Census Bureau, 2002

85%

In the Next Fifteen Years, 2nd Generation Will Dominate Growth

25%

45% 47%

28% 28%27%

1970 to 2000 2000 to 2020

1st Generation

2nd Generation

3rd Generation

Pew Hispanic Center, 2002

.

Spanish language fluency is lost by the third generation.

% Speaking English / Spanish Well or Very Well

99 98 100 100

68

91

73

15

Total 1.5 Generation Second Generation Third Generation

English

Spanish

Q11/12: Would you say you speak English/Spanish…?

Base: Total

Post-ethnicity emerges…Post-ethnicity emerges…

• A survey by New American Dimensions of LA and NYC Latino youths finds culture more important than race

• Spanish language TV ventures into English

• Cross-culture Latino music, food, some Asian influence move into mainstream

• Ethnicity matters, but less than class or culture.

37%

21%

19%

13%

10%

Hip Hoppers

Popsters

Roqueros

Trailblazers

Traditionals

The SegmentsThe Segments

Final ThoughtsFinal Thoughts

• America’s ethnic orientation will be radically different in a generation

• Latino, Middle Eastern, Asian influences will affect cultural life

• Americanness will remain and drive towards citizenship increase as a more diverse country becomes more, not less dependent on united aspects of national culture.

• “They” are us, or soon will be

Questions and Comments?Questions and Comments?