Towards a better hydrological representation in ......global hydrological forecasting & early...
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Towards a better hydrological representation in operational NWP land surface model Integrating river routing and hydrological-relevant parameters calibration Cinzia Mazzetti [email protected] @ Next Generation Land-surface and Hydrological Predictions
Transcript of Towards a better hydrological representation in ......global hydrological forecasting & early...
Towards a better hydrological representation in operational NWP land surface model
Integrating river routing and hydrological-relevant
parameters calibration
Cinzia Mazzetti
@ Next Generation Land-surface and Hydrological Predictions
October 29, 2014
Global Flood Awareness – A Copernicus Emergency Management Service
http://globalfloods.eu
2EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS Thanks to the GloFAS Team
October 29, 2014
GloFAS configuration = HTESSEL + LISFLOOD routing
3EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS
Sub-models from LISFLOOD model for
groundwater storage, groundwater flow,
and flow routing into and through river
channels.
HTESSEL parameters are tuned for IFS
and not for hydrology
Difficult maintenance and limited evolution
Outdated code with PCRASTER functions
No possibility for atmospheric feedback
Limitations:
Outputs show good correlation but can
have large bias
Shaun Harrigan - GloFASv2.1 global river discharge reanalysis 1979-present, in prep
EMBRACE AN EARTH SYSTEM MODEL APPROACH
FULL INTEGRATION IN IFS IN COUPLED MODE
October 29, 2014
Coupling HTESSEL and a global hydrodynamic model
State of the art hydrological routing algorithm
Global
Flexible
Maintainable
Scalable (space and time resolution)
4EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS
Lots of opportunities for new developments:
Kinematic routing and local inertial equations
Being able to represent lakes and reservoirs (unmanaged)
Being able to represent slow water release to the river network from
groundwater (groundwater “slow tank” )
Running at different spatial resolutions (up to ~1 arcmin)
Being compatible with the spatial resolution necessary for satellite data
assimilation of inundated areas
Running at sub-daily steps
Running with both coupled and stand alone options
Including a warm start option from previous warm state
Running on sub-sections of the global set up
CaMa-Flood global hydrodynamic model(Dai YAMAZAKI)
Courtesy of Dai Yamazaki (Tokyo Uni.)
University of LisbonEmanuel Dutra
Ricardo Tomé
Miguel Nogueira
University of TokyoDai Yamazaki
Instituto Português do Mar e
da Atmosfera (IPMA)Tânia Cota
Álvaro Silva
October 29, 2014
Calibrating hydrological-relevant parameters of HTESSEL+CaMaFlood
5EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS
Multiscale Parameter Regionalization (MPR)
technique.
Refactoring HTESSEL code to accommodate
developments required by MPR (i.e. flexible name
lists)
Implementation of MPR code in ECMWF IT
infrastructure (experiments, workflows, archiving)
Off-line calibration of HTESSEL+CaMaFlood
Evaluation on hydrology and atmospheric fluxes
Courtesy of Luis Samaniego (UFZ)
Helmoz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ)Luis Samaniego
Stephan Thorber Matthias Kelbling Oldrich Rakovec Robert Scheweppe
October 29, 2014
Towards full integration in NWP operational structure
6EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS
Integration of refactored and calibrated HTESSEL+CaMaFlood into IFS
CODE SCORECARD
Don’t break IFS!!! Improve IFS forecasts!!!!
IT INFRASTRUCTURE
Don’t slow down IFS!!!
Experiments, experiments, and more experiments…
Towards an Earth System Model for global hydrological forecasting & early warning
Hannah Cloke
@ Next Generation Land-surface and Hydrological Predictions
@hancloke
FATHUM - Forecasts for Anticipatory Humanitarian Action
Photo credit: Peruvian Red Cross (top left, below right), Floodlist (centre), Juan Bazo (right)
Global weather prediction, earth system models are useful for flood forecasts
Earlier warning = better preparedness
October 29, 2014 9EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS
Photo credit: Peruvian
Red Cross
October 29, 2014 10EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS
October 29, 2014
- UN OCHA & DfID (UK) requested emergency reports
GloFAS in action cyclone Kenneth
Source: Mike Hutchins/Reuters
"UN humanitarian response actors stated that the reports produced were tremendously helpful"
October 29, 2014 12EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS
October 29, 2014 13EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS
diagnoses problems for peak river
flow, particularly in snowmelt-
dominated areas, caused by land-
atmosphere coupling & data
assimilation
Thank you
Thank you
