Towards 4G: From Cathedral to Bazaarravijainweb.com/invited...
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Towards 4G:From Cathedral to Bazaar
Ravi [email protected]
Jan 11, 2006
Presented at Comsware 2006, 11 Jan 2006.
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1/4/2009 2Ravi Jain
Outline
• Background• The Cathedral and the Bazaar• The Bazaar in Emerging Markets• Summary
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1/4/2009 3Ravi Jain
What is 4G anyway?
• Historically wireless generations have been defined in terms of air interface technology, focusing on raw bandwidth
• Views of technology evolution:– Air interface view– Devices view– Network evolution view
• As 3G demonstrates, good wireless access technology and high raw bandwidth is no longer sufficient for business success– Declining ARPU for wireless careers
• Thus for 4G it seems more appropriate to use other criteria
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1/4/2009 4Ravi Jain
Network evolution view
INTERNET
PSTN
Local
Control
IP Core
3G/4G RAN Enterprise
Ad Hoc & P2P
3G/4G/WLAN B3G/4G WLAN/other
INTERNET
PSTN
2G/3G RAN
ATM Core (CS)
ATM Core (PS)
~2005: Edge of PSTN/Homogeneous RAN/
Disjoint Core
~2008: Edge of INTERNET/Heterogeneous RAN/
Single all-IP Core
2G/3G
CS = Circuit switched PS = Packet switched B3G = Beyond 3G
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1/4/2009 5Ravi Jain
4G is about services
• Not raw data rates, wireless technology, IP networks, or devices• But … no one knows what the killer app is• Needed: a second waist to speed the deployment of new services
(Jain, 2003)
3.5G
Connectivity
I P
Applications
Radio Access Network
4GService Ubiquity
I P
Radio Access Network
??
Applications
Web Services Middleware
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1/4/2009 6Ravi Jain
Outline
• Background• The Cathedral and the Bazaar• The Bazaar in Emerging Markets• Summary
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1/4/2009 7Ravi Jain
From Cathedral to Bazaar
• The image of the “cathedral” and “bazaar” was first used by Eric Raymond in an essay* that – celebrated the virtues and superiority of – expert hackerdom and open-source software (the “bazaar”)
over– conventional corporate software development (the “cathedral”)
• The material in these slides has nothing to do with hackerdom, open-source, etc
• However, the cathedral and bazaar can be useful metaphors for thinking about how 4G may develop
• This talk presents some speculation and hypotheses for discussion
* Later a book: E. Raymond, The Cathedral and the Bazaar, 2nd ed., 242 pp., O’Reilly, 2001.
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1/4/2009 8Ravi Jain
Legacy Networks are Cathedrals• Hugely costly,• Carefully and painstakingly built,• By the combined effort of a huge number of
people,• In a highly structured industry, with government
regulation and standards bodies;• Designed to last for the ages,• Continuously but slowly and incrementally
improved,• With a monolithic, soup-to-nuts or stovepipe
design;• Centrally owned and managed,• With only a few in town,• Which work beautifully for their intended use.
The classic cathedral is of course the PSTN 1G, and 2G were simply chapels on the way to
constructing the 3G cathedral
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1/4/2009 9Ravi Jain
Legacy Networks: A Cathedral Economic Model
• In some sense, the current economic structure of wireless carrier business can also be regarded as a “cathedral” model– Voice cash cow– Relatively few players– Carrier is network owner, network operator and service
provider
• We may be entering a “bazaar” structure on the economic side
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1/4/2009 10Ravi Jain
Why Bazaars
• Technology and economics are working in concert– Cathedrals are too costly and too risky (3G woes)– Technology can be built more cheaply (e.g. evolution from
mainframe to PC)– Knowledge of technology is becoming more democratized– Technology is in rapid flux
• 802.1* is the opposite of the 3G cathedral
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1/4/2009 11Ravi Jain
Key point of the bazaar
• Decentralized ownership and management structure– The key “genius” of Linux (according to Raymond)
• Bazaar at two levels– Access networks– Services
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1/4/2009 12Ravi Jain
Network evolution view
INTERNET
PSTN
Local
Control
IP Core
3G/4G RAN Enterprise
Ad Hoc & P2P
3G/4G/WLAN B3G/4G WLAN/other
INTERNET
PSTN
2G/3G RAN
ATM Core (CS)
ATM Core (PS)
~2005: Edge of PSTN/Homogeneous RAN/
Disjoint Core
~2008: Edge of INTERNET/Heterogeneous RAN/
Single all-IP Core
2G/3G
CS = Circuit switched PS = Packet switched B3G = Beyond 3G
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1/4/2009 13Ravi Jain
A 4G IP-Based Architecture
ALM = Application Layer MulticastCDN = Content Distribution NetworkLASS = Location Aware Services ServerMM = Mobility ManagementP2P = Peer-to-Peer
(Jain et al, 2004)
Local Control
IP Core
4G RAN Enterprise
High-level controlPolicy MM
Overlays
CDN Proxy
ALM
Loose coupling
Local Control
Loose coupling
3G/4G/WLAN 3G/4G WLAN/other
AAA
Ad Hoc / P2P
LASS
Dis
trib
uted
Con
trol
API
API
APISERVICESBazaa
r
Bazaar
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1/4/2009 14Ravi Jain
Decentralized ownership
• Infrastructure– User owns nothing – User owns phone– User owns access point
• Software and services– User changes nothing– User customizes services– “User” develops services (JAIN/Parlay/OSA, SIP)– User as co-developer (as in Linux)
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1/4/2009 15Ravi Jain
Possible evolution
• A complete bazaar is unlikely at any layer• Two-tier structure (e.g. Emacs): Cathedral core and bazaar halo
• Two tiers at two layers: access networks and services
Cathedral
Bazaar
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1/4/2009 16Ravi Jain
Mobile terminal device as a gateway
4G Radio Access
4G Network
Device NW(Real World)
Example: Two-tier structure in access networks
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Example issues for a two-tier structure
Lowering cost of 3rd party entry into services market: simpler APIs, risk management and revenue sharing technologies
Incentive technologies for relaying behavior, pricing to discourage free-riding
Economics:Making the bazaar work from an economic point of view
Rapid introduction of personalized services: languages, APIs, tools, deployment mechanisms, security
Seamless, secure integration of heterogeneous networks with core networks: architecture, protocols, algorithms
Technology:Making the bazaar work from a technical point of view
ServicesAccess Networks
• By economics issues I mean technical work that can be done that directly takes advantage of or addresses economic mechanisms.
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1/4/2009 18Ravi Jain
Outline
• Background• The Cathedral and the Bazaar• The Bazaar in Emerging Markets• Summary
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1/4/2009 19Ravi Jain
New markets and models to explore:B24B
Provide useful, affordable Information and Communication Technology services to the 4 billion people on the planet earning less than $2000 per yr
• A Grand Challenge if there ever was one– Kalil, 2002– Prahalad & Hammond,
HBR, 2002– Jain, 2003
2B
1B
4B
> $20K
$2 - $20K
< $2K
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1/4/2009 20Ravi Jain
Why?Enlightened Self-Interest
• New markets are the key to growth– Penetration and ARPU is saturating in the
developed world– Competition is raising the cost of serving the
developed world– The economies and population of less developed
countries are growing faster than the developed world
– The penetration of IT in less developed countries is miniscule
• although increasing rapidly at the top of the local pyramid
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1/4/2009 21Ravi Jain
(Some) Technical Challenges
• Better support for resource and device sharing– Privacy and security– Immediate and itemized charging, billing, and payment– Personalization
• Less reliance on infrastructure– Ad-hoc and multi-hop networks– IEEE 802.1* solutions– Better power usage and alternative power sources
• Gao et al, WCNC 2003
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1/4/2009 22Ravi Jain
Summary
• 4G is not about air interface speeds (Mbps) or core network technology (IP)
• 4G has to be about services• 4G architecture hypotheses
– Cathedral core and bazaar halo– Decentralized ownership & mgmt– Bazaar at two layers: Access networks and services– Technical issues: support two-tier structure securely and
efficiently– Economic issues: Pricing, incentive mechanisms, risk and
revenue sharing mechanisms• Significant interesting research challenges in applying
the bazaar model to emerging markets
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Backup slides
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1/4/2009 24Ravi Jain
Summary
• 4G– Services are king
• Need a second waist and programmability– New interaction modes will appear
• P2M, M2P, P2P– New markets will be explored
• B24B
• Key components of R&D are needed• Timeframe: ~2010
It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future (Yogi Berra/Mark Twain)
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1/4/2009 25Ravi Jain
8860
30
8620
120
8130
610
7770
880
7160
1420
6370
1750
5980
1830
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
Sep/99 Sep/00 Mar/02 Mar/04
Voice ARPU i-mode ARPUyenyen
Wireless Industry Reality:Voice and i-mode Average Revenue Per User (ARPU)
NTT DoCoMo Financials. USD 1 = JPY 108
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1/4/2009 26Ravi Jain
Air interface view: Bandwidth
100 M
1985
10 K
100 K
1 M
10 M
1990 2000
PDCGSM
TDMAcdmaOne
GPRS
cdma20001X
WCDMA
cdmaOne1X EV-DC, 3X
EDGE
20102G 2.5G 3G 3.5G 4G1G
AMPS
802.11
802.11b5.5/11 Mb
802.11PBCC
BT
H2
Speed bps
BT = BluetoothH2 = Hiperlan 2PDC = Personal Digital Cellular
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1/4/2009 27Ravi Jain
Short Range Wireless Technologies &Market Segmentation
SHO
RT
<
R
AN
GE
>
LON
G
LOW < DATA RATE > HIGH
TEXT INTERNET/AUDIO/IMAGE VIDEO MULTI-CHANNELDIGITAL VIDEO
Bluetooth1(1Mbps)
Bluetooth 2(1Gbps)
802.11g (54Mbps)
802.11a (54Mbps)
NFC(424kbps)
802.11n(>100Mbps)
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1/4/2009 28Ravi Jain
Content Explosion Calls for Fast Local Connectivity
Terminal categories• Business terminals • Multimedia terminals• Game terminals
Users own gigabytes of personal data
Technologies• Wired: USB2 and 1394• Memory cards, small optical discs• Wireless: W-USB, W-1394, WLAN ad-hoc, Bluetooth
Mobile device as a personal storage
Exchange and transfer of content is necessity
“Free” and fast local connectivity required
Ref: Nokia View presented in IEEE802.15.3a
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1/4/2009 29Ravi Jain
Use cases for multimedia terminals2008: high-end camera phone with
several megapixel sensor, several gigabytes of storage, video editing capabilityvideo super distribution capability
Display & print internet
W-USB, W-1394, UPnP, video-out, PCI-express, etc.
Synchronisation, downloading content sharing
Fast IP accessRef: Nokia View presented in IEEE802.15.3a
Bluetooth UWB
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Devices view: This is just the beginning
Source: Rainer Malaka, EMLICDE 2001
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1/4/2009 31Ravi Jain
ITU-R view
IMT-2000
WLANtype
Cellular2nd gen.
Short RangeConnectivity
WirelinexDSL
otherentities
DigitalBroadcast
download channel
New RadioInterface
IMT-2000
WLANtype
Cellular2nd gen.
Short RangeConnectivity
WirelinexDSL
otherentities
DigitalBroadcast
download channel
New RadioInterface
IP basedCore Network
Services andapplications
IMT-2000
WLANtype
Cellular2nd gen.
Short RangeConnectivity
WirelinexDSL
otherentities
DigitalBroadcast
download channel
New RadioInterface
IMT-2000
WLANtype
Cellular2nd gen.
Short RangeConnectivity
WirelinexDSL
otherentities
DigitalBroadcast
download channel
New RadioInterface
Packet basedCore Network
Services andapplications
IMT-2000
WLANtype
Cellular2nd gen.
Short RangeConnectivity
WirelinexDSL
otherentities
DigitalBroadcast
download channel
New RadioInterface
IMT-2000
WLANtype
Cellular2nd gen.
Short RangeConnectivity
WirelinexDSL
otherentities
DigitalBroadcast
download channel
New RadioInterface
IP basedCore Network
Services andapplications
IMT-2000
WLANtype
Cellular2nd gen.
Short RangeConnectivity
WirelinexDSL
otherentities
DigitalBroadcast
download channel
New RadioInterface
IMT-2000
WLANtype
Cellular2nd gen.
Short RangeConnectivity
WirelinexDSL
otherentities
DigitalBroadcast
download channel
New RadioInterface
Packet basedCore Network
Services andapplications
Source: ITU-R WP8F Vision
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4G network view: An evolvable, programmable, multi-tier multi-device network
Bluetooth,IR, UWB,
ZigBee
CellularSatelliteWirelessLAN, HomeRF, etc