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Toward a sustainable energy future in Brazil and IIASA’s MESSAGE Model André F.P. Lucena, Alexandre Szklo and Roberto Schaeffer April 25 th 2017
Transcript of Toward a sustainable energy future in Brazil and IIASA’s ...
Toward a sustainable energy future in Brazil and IIASA’s MESSAGE Model
André F.P. Lucena, Alexandre Szklo and Roberto Schaeffer
April 25th 2017
• Professors– Roberto Schaeffer
– Alexandre Szklo
– André F P Lucena
• Researchers– Around ten M.Sc. students, ten D.Sc. studentsand four Pos‐Docs (one third of the researchersare from abroad)
CENERGIA – COPPE
• 1999: beginning of collaboration with UN‐IAEA developing and implementing IAM based on the use of IIASA’s MESSAGE (MSG) platform
• Since then, over fifteen versions of the MSG‐Brazil model have been developed by our team
• As of November 2016 the first full version of COFFEE (MSB‐Global) is operational (land use and energy)
• Recent developments include:– Land Use– Water resources– Local air pollution
• But all of this has only been made possible given the large number of supporting studies done by our group: almost 100 papers recently published (associated with energy modelling + PhD thesis + Master Dissertation + technical reports)
Large support from IIASA
Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) Research
Development of MESSAGE‐Brazil
• Time Resolution
Development of MESSAGE‐Brazil
Base year: 2010
Horizon: 2010‐2050 each 5 years
Seasonality: 4 seasons
Load curve: 5 sections
Kept
Kept
12 months
24 hours
• Spatial Resolution
Development of MESSAGE‐Brazil
3 regions
(only electricitysystem)
6 regions(electricity, gas, oil, oilproducts and CO2)
• Technological representation
• Including detailed representation of final end‐uses and energy services
Development of MESSAGE‐Brazil
Around 300 technologies
Around 8000 Technologies (by macrorregions)
• Secretaria de Assuntos Estratégicos da Presidência da República (SAE)– Energy Mix Scenarios for Brazil under Different Carbon Prices
– Brazil 2040 – Climate Change Adaptation in Brazil: scenarios and alternatives
• Ministério de Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação (MCTI)– Project “Mitigation Options of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions in
Key Sectors in Brazil”• A full hybrid integrated model to support Brazil’s NDC
MESSAGE‐Brazil: recent applications
• The BLUES model ‐ Brazil Land‐Use and Energy Systems Model– Includes a representation of the land‐use system:
• Forests, savannas, low‐ and high‐capacity pastures, integrated systems, cropland, double cropping, planted forests, protected areas
– Land Use transitions matrix:
MESSAGE‐Brazil: recent developments
ForestLow Cap Pasture
High Cap Pasture
Integrated Systems
CroplandDouble Cropping
Planted Forest
Savanna
Recovered Pastures
Managed Forests
• Objective
– To develop a global energy model, with a detailed representation ofBrazil
• Most compreensive effort of this kind outside Europe, Japan and the US
• First step for the development of a full integrated assessment model (IAM) for climate mitigation outside Europe, Japan and the US
– To assess the role of Brazil, the BRICS countries, or any other country in climate stabilization scenarios
COFFEE – COmputable Framework For Energy and the Environment
• RCP
COFFEE’s Regional Representation
18Regions
• Model structure: energy system– Supply (production and distribution) and demand
COFFEE – Methodology
• Carbon transport and storage– Original approach for an IAM
– Storage potential by region, with a differentiation by:• Type of reservoir: oil fields (EOR), gas fields and aquifers (2 types)
– Injection costs
• Distance– Transport costs
– Literature revision for factors and potential estimates
– Assessment with the use of GIS tools
COFFEE – Inovative CCS modelling approach
• Model structure: land system
COFFEE – Methodology
• Land cover– Biophysical surface cover
– Deployment of 7 distinct categories• 2 non‐suited: “Not Suited” and “Flooded”
COFFEE – Land‐use and Agriculture
• Productivity– Simplification of agriculture productivity and land profitability
• Productivity index
• Limitations of this methodology (Ex: assessment of yields)
COFFEE – Land‐use and Agriculture
• Distance– Associated with profitability (transport cost)
– Indirectly proportional to time of travel• Information available at level of detail required
• Simplified methodology and similar to other global models
COFFEE – Land‐use and Agriculture
• Contributions– A global energy IAM developed with success (less than 10 groups in the
world have this, and this will be key for the IPCC 1.5oC Special Report)• This is a first step towards a full IAM model
• First effort of this kind outside Europe, Japan and the US
• Capable of providing key elements for experts and policy makers alike onmitigation strategies and long‐term implications of climate scenarios
– Important tool for Brazil in future climate mitigation negotiations• Tool and methodology at the state‐of‐the‐art level in the literature
– Also useful when used together with regional and national models, witha very fine detail for Brazil (Ex: MSG‐Brasil)
COFFEE – Final Considerations
• IIASA's Young Scientists Summer Program – 2013: Pedro Rochedo development of MESSAGE‐Brazil and COFFE
– 2016: Alex Koberle SSP representation and migration to GAMS
– 2016: Eveline Vasquez water resources modelling
– 2017: Esperanza Gonzalez zero energy buildings
• Other IIASA researcher exchange – 2015: Joana Portugal‐Pereira GAINS
– 2017: Mariana Império climate modeling (MAGICC)
• Joint Research Projects and other initiatives– MILES
– CD‐Links
– IAMC
– TWI2050
Collaboration with IIASA
