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1Top MPCs of 2017 | John Burns Real Estate Consulting

TopMaster-Planned Communities of 2017

50JODY KAHNSenior Vice [email protected]

DEVYN BACHMANSenior Research [email protected]

Four Masterplans Exceed 1,000 Sales in 2017

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2Top MPCs of 2017 | John Burns Real Estate Consulting 2Top MPCs of 2017 | John Burns Real Estate Consulting

2017 2016

RANK DEVELOPER NET SALES YOY% ∆

SOURCE: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC (January 2018)

PROJECT NAME AND LOCATION2017 2016


501 2

2 1

3 5

4 6

5 4

6 11

7 3

8 8

9 9

10 15

11 NR

12 16

13 7

14 NR

15 12

16 NR

17 NR

18 19

19 45

20 18

21 17

22 10

23 36

24 41t

25 20

2,231 1,966

1,814 1,989

1,206 775

1,052 769

992 848

919 502

875 973

837 564

830 535

758 471

712 474

610 458

584 569

563 159

523 495

515 264

488 300

479 448

473 303

468 452

462 453

457 515

456 335

447 313

435 441

13%

-9%

56%

37%

17%

83%

-10%

48%

55%

61%

50%

33%

3%

254%

6%

95%

63%

7%

56%

4%

2%

-11%

36%

43%

-1%

THE VILLAGES Villages, FL

IRVINE RANCH Orange County, CA

LAKEWOOD RANCH Sarasota, FL

SUMMERLIN Las Vegas, NV

WEST VILLAGES Sarasota, FL

EASTMARK Phoenix, AZ

NOCATEE Jacksonville, FL

INSPIRADA2 Las Vegas, NV

THE GREAT PARK NEIGHBORHOODS Orange County, CA

STAPLETON Denver, CO

ONTARIO RANCH Riverside-San Bernardino, CA

RANCHO MISSION VIEJO Orange County, CA

CANE BAY PLANTATION Charleston, SC

OTAY RANCH San Diego, CA

LAKE NONA Orlando, FL

WESTSHORE Sacramento, CA

BARTRAM PARK Jacksonville, FL

BAKER RANCH Orange County, CA

WILLOWSFORD Washington, DC

DAYBREAK Salt Lake City, UT

VISTANCIA Phoenix, AZ

PALOMA CREEK Dallas, TX

CADENCE Las Vegas, NV

VIERA Brevard County, FL

RIVERSTONE Houston, TX

Villages of Lake Sumter, LLC

The Irvine Company

Schroeder-Manatee Ranch, Inc.

The Howard Hughes Company

West Villages Partnership

DMB and Brookfield

The PARC Group

Beazer, KB Home, Pardee, Toll Brothers

Five Point Communities

Forest City Enterprises

Brookfield, Lennar, Lewis, Stratham

Rancho Mission Viejo, LLC

Gramling Brothers Real Estate & Development

Baldwin, Cornerstone, HomeFed, Stratford Land

Tavistock Group

K. Hovnanian, Lennar, Taylor Morrison

Eastland Development Group

Shea Homes, Toll Brothers

Willowsford Management, LLC

Daybreak Communities

Vistancia Land Holdings/Stratford Land

Provident Realty Advisors

The LandWell Company

The Viera Company

Johnson Development Corp.

Rank increased 1Estimates2PreliminaryRank declined

19,186 15,371 25% TOP 25 TOTALBold=Multiple MPCs on list


2017 2016

RANK DEVELOPER NET SALES YOY% ∆

SOURCE: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC (January 2018)

PROJECT NAME AND LOCATION2017 2016


5026 22

27T 21

27T 14

29 37

30 NR

31 7

32 23t

33 NR

34 34

35 NR

36 30

37 26

38 NR

39 46

40 31

41 38t

42 NR

43 27

44 33

45 38t

46 44

47T NR

47T 23T

47T NR

50 32

429 413

428 426

428 476

423 333

400 270

399 489

397 377

395 386

382 348

379 55

372 359

368 373

367 287

361 301

356 358

345 317

340 248

337 365

334 351

324 315

320 307

315 252

315 377

315 163

314 352

4%

0%

-10%

27%

48%

-18%

5%

2%

10%

589%

4%

-1%

28%

20%

-1%

9%

37%

-8%

-5%

3%

4%

25%

-16%

93%

-11%

VERRADO Phoenix, AZ

ALIANA Houston, TX

SIENA Austin, TX

BRIDGELAND Houston, TX

ESTRELLA Phoenix, AZ

ALAMO RANCH San Antonio, TX

CROSS CREEK RANCH Houston, TX

BRUNSWICK FOREST2 Wilmington, NC

SUMMERLAKE Orlando, FL

WALLIS RANCH East Bay Area, CA

SIENNA PLANTATION Houston, TX

WESTPARK2 Sacramento, CA

BEREWICK Charlotte, NC

TRADITION Port St. Lucie, FL

GREEN VALLEY RANCH Denver, CO

MOUNTAIN'S EDGE Las Vegas, NV

THE WOODLANDS Houston, TX

WOODFOREST Houston, TX

WILDWOOD AT NORTHPOINTE2 Houston, TX

WATERSET Tampa, FL

HARVEST2 Fort Worth, TX

HARVEST GREEN Houston, TX

CANYON LAKES WEST Houston, TX

SKYE CANYON Las Vegas, NV

PHILLIPS CREEK RANCH Dallas, TX

DMB

Aliana Development Company

John Lloyd Development

The Howard Hughes Company

Newland Communities

Galo Properties


Brunswick Forest Realty, LLC

Starwood Land

Trumark Homes


Westpark Communities

Pappas Properties

Tradition Land Company

Oakwood Homes

Focus Property Group

The Woodlands Development Company


Friendswood Development Company (Lennar)

Newland Communities

Hillwood Communities


Land Tejas Company

Olympia Companies

Republic Property Group

28,329 23,669 20% TOP 50 TOTALRank increased 1Estimates2PreliminaryRank declined

Bold=Multiple MPCs on list



Four Masterplans Exceed 1,000 Sales in 2017By Jody Kahn, Senior Vice President, and Devyn Bachman, Senior Research Analyst

Masterplan sales surged in 2017. Irvine Ranch, The Villages, Lakewood Ranch, and Summerlin all captured over 1,000 net homes sales in 2017. Sales in a number of western US communities swelled, while many communities in Florida and Texas captured fewer sales as they wind down or face more competition. Texas usually dominates the top 25 ranking, but only Riverstone in Houston and Paloma Creek in Dallas had enough sales this year. We contacted 370 masterplans—many of whom we advise on market, segmentation, amenity, and marketing strategies—to arrive at our ranking. Together, the top 50 masterplans sold 28,329 homes, reflecting a 20% year-over-year increase from 2016. Their combined 2017 sales represent approximately 4.5% of all new home sales nationally. We spotted several notable trends this year.

These factors guide our ranking:

• Multiple builders selling• Shared or reciprocal amenities• Consistent entries, street names,

lighting, etc.• Community brand and marketing

Regional Shifts in the Top 25 • California and Southwest masterplans together

account for 56% of the 2017 top-selling communities, up from 48% one year ago.

• Southern California masterplans represent 24% of the top 25, rising from 16% in 2016.

• The Southwest’s market share jumped to 28% from 24% one year ago.

• Texas captures 8% of our 2017 top 25, dropping from 28% last year.

• Florida’s share rose to 28% from 20% in 2016.by 2016 Net Sale

Strong Phoenix and Las Vegas sales gains. The Summerlin and Inspirada masterplans in Las Vegas and Eastmark and Vistancia in Phoenix all report phenomenal 2017 sales that promoted them in this year’s ranking. We have been tracking the significant sales improvement in Phoenix and Las Vegas via our consulting assignments and monthly builder survey over the last 12–18 months. Developers and builders report improved demand across the full spectrum of buyer types and submarkets. Steady job growth supports demand, with a boost from retirees in Phoenix and Californians relocating to Las Vegas. Phoenix and Las Vegas are still gaining traction in their recoveries following their huge construction booms and busts.

What makes a masterplan?

The Irvine Ranch continues to appeal to buyers with a wide range of product and price points, access to employment, retail, and the beach, top-notch schools, and thousands of acres of preserved open spaces and parks.

#1 all ages MPC new home sales for 2017



Increased supply propels San Diego into the top 25. Multiple new communities opened in 2017 in the Otay Ranch masterplan offering a range of relatively affordable product in a supply-starved market. The new supply drove a whopping 254% increase to 563 sales in 2017, representing the highest growth rate among the top 25 communities. Some mature north side masterplans continue to sell well, but South County’s affordability remains a big draw. We rate San Diego as a Strong market given the brisk sales rates and impressive price appreciation in 2017.

Sarasota’s appeal. Sarasota retains two masterplans in the top 5, Lakewood Ranch and West Villages. Builders and consumers increasingly turn to Sarasota to benefit from affordability, compared to Naples and Fort Myers. Sarasota also offers a reasonable commute to Tampa, and local job growth is among the strongest in the country, near 4% annually. In addition, Sarasota provides cultural appeal for active adults and plenty of recreation for families, while builders zero in on a good reserve of fairly priced lots.

Hurricanes did not hold back Houston. Riverstone is the lone Houston masterplan to achieve a top 25 ranking this year, with another 9 Houston masterplans in the top 50. Last year, four Houston masterplans ranked in the top 25. Our Houston consulting team confirms that numerous masterplans are winding down after years of robust activity, and Hurricane Harvey was only a temporary distraction.

Additional TrendsSome longtime top 50 masterplans are winding down. Several former top 25 masterplans have slipped in our list or dropped from our ranking as they sell out. The Villages remains in the top 5; however, Alamo Ranch, The Woodlands, Aliana, and Sienna Plantation fell in the rankings. Other mature masterplans did not make our ranking this year, including The Meadows in Denver, Valencia in Los Angeles, and Mountain House in Stockton.

More builders and more amenities pay off. Masterplans want to appeal to a multitude of buyer groups, sometimes combining as many as 10 competing builders with varied product and price points. Proper product segmentation leads to strong sales thanks to housing communities that are differentiated. Summerlin in Las Vegas is one of the best segmentation examples, with homes priced from the mid $300Ks to $2M+, attracting a wide variety of local and out-of-state buyers. Willowsford in Washington, DC, is a perfect example of the benefits of segmentation. This year NVR entered the community, bringing additional product and price diversity. As a result, 2017 sales increased dramatically over 2016.

With a 590% increase year over year, Trumark’s Wallis Ranch masterplan in the East Bay wins the title for most improved sales. This successful masterplan offers a variety of mostly smaller lot detached housing options, which senior consultant Dean Wehrli sees as the future of master planning in higher-priced markets where not all buyers want attached product.

Largest year-over-year sales growth



including the “Barker Ranch” dog park in their masterplan. These popular amenities reflect a major shift from the reliance on resort-style pools and 18-hole golf courses that developers used to include to provide the lifestyle elements. For more examples of innovative amenities, you can view the following articles on our website: Three New Masterplan Trends https://www.realestateconsulting.com/three-new-masterplan-trends/

The Latest in Masterplan Amenity Innovationhttps://www.realestateconsulting.com/the-latest-in-masterplan-amenity-innovation/

We anticipate that the shift away from resort-size pools will reverse itself in 2018, as a number of communities with Crystal Lagoons are currently under construction.

Developers struggled to maintain lot supplies in 2017. Once again, regulatory delays, lack of developed lots, and labor shortages held back sales. Longer waits for permits and inspections, weather delaying sitework, and surprisingly common utility delays can push lot releases into the following year, causing swings in masterplans’ sales. For example, Stapleton in Denver jumped in our top 50 rating after opening a new section in 2017.

Soaring first-time buyer demand. Increased first-time buyer demand has become a national trend in the last 12–18 months, keeping our consultants busy helping builder and developer clients offer more attainable housing choices. Builders in Paloma Creek and WestShore are offering attainably priced product in locations just outside the most popular submarkets. Paloma Creek is capturing buyers priced out of the highly desirable Frisco submarket in Dallas, while WestShore is turning downtown Sacramento renters into homeowners. The result is strong homes sales for both masterplans.

Unique amenities win builders extra sales. Developers are investing less capital and relying on creativity to differentiate their communities. For example, Rancho Mission Viejo features a family gathering spot called “the Campout,” which is aptly named for its resemblance to an outdoor campground. We held our company dinner at the Campout this summer. Baker Ranch listened to buyers who increasingly consider their pets as family members,

Our developer contacts rush to provide us with annual sales only days following year-end. Final accounting over the next couple of months may produce minor adjustments up or down.

Sales totals may adjust slightly

View prior years’ top 50 rankings and press releases on our website:https://www.realestateconsulting.com/stay-informed/top-selling-master-planned-communities/



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8Top MPCs of 2017 | John Burns Real Estate Consulting WWW.REALESTATECONSULTING .COM

John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC, takes great pride in our highly educated, resourceful, and experienced team that includes practitioners with 25+ years of experience in both home building and community development. As a research client, you gain access to our team across the nation to discuss market conditions, our current research, and our forecasts.

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