Top50 ... THE WOODLANDS Houston, TX WOODFOREST Houston, TX WILDWOOD AT NORTHPOINTE2 Houston, TX ......

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Transcript of Top50 ... THE WOODLANDS Houston, TX WOODFOREST Houston, TX WILDWOOD AT NORTHPOINTE2 Houston, TX ......

  • 1Top MPCs of 2017 | John Burns Real Estate Consulting

    Top Master-Planned Communities of 2017

    50 JODY KAHN Senior Vice President 603-235-5760 [email protected]

    DEVYN BACHMAN Senior Research Analyst 303-956-9881 [email protected]

    Four Masterplans Exceed 1,000 Sales in 2017

    WWW.REALESTATECONSULTING .COM

  • 2Top MPCs of 2017 | John Burns Real Estate Consulting 2Top MPCs of 2017 | John Burns Real Estate Consulting

    2017 2016 RANK DEVELOPER NET SALES YOY% ∆

    SOURCE: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC (January 2018)

    PROJECT NAME AND LOCATION 2017 2016

    Top Master-Planned Communities of 2017

    50 1 2

    2 1

    3 5

    4 6

    5 4

    6 11

    7 3

    8 8

    9 9

    10 15

    11 NR

    12 16

    13 7

    14 NR

    15 12

    16 NR

    17 NR

    18 19

    19 45

    20 18

    21 17

    22 10

    23 36

    24 41t

    25 20

        2,231 1,966

         1,814 1,989

         1,206 775

         1,052 769

            992 848

            919 502

            875 973

            837 564

            830 535

            758 471

            712 474

            610 458

            584 569

            563 159

            523 495

            515 264

    488 300

            479 448

            473 303

            468 452

            462 453

            457 515

            456 335

            447 313

            435 441

    13%

    -9%

    56%

    37%

    17%

    83%

    -10%

    48%

    55%

    61%

    50%

    33%

    3%

    254%

    6%

    95%

    63%

    7%

    56%

    4%

    2%

    -11%

    36%

    43%

    -1%

    THE VILLAGES Villages, FL

    IRVINE RANCH Orange County, CA

    LAKEWOOD RANCH Sarasota, FL

    SUMMERLIN Las Vegas, NV

    WEST VILLAGES Sarasota, FL

    EASTMARK Phoenix, AZ

    NOCATEE Jacksonville, FL

    INSPIRADA2 Las Vegas, NV

    THE GREAT PARK NEIGHBORHOODS Orange County, CA

    STAPLETON Denver, CO

    ONTARIO RANCH Riverside-San Bernardino, CA

    RANCHO MISSION VIEJO Orange County, CA

    CANE BAY PLANTATION Charleston, SC

    OTAY RANCH San Diego, CA

    LAKE NONA Orlando, FL

    WESTSHORE Sacramento, CA

    BARTRAM PARK Jacksonville, FL

    BAKER RANCH Orange County, CA

    WILLOWSFORD Washington, DC

    DAYBREAK Salt Lake City, UT

    VISTANCIA Phoenix, AZ

    PALOMA CREEK Dallas, TX

    CADENCE Las Vegas, NV

    VIERA Brevard County, FL

    RIVERSTONE Houston, TX

    Villages of Lake Sumter, LLC

    The Irvine Company

    Schroeder-Manatee Ranch, Inc.

    The Howard Hughes Company

    West Villages Partnership

    DMB and Brookfield

    The PARC Group

    Beazer, KB Home, Pardee, Toll Brothers

    Five Point Communities

    Forest City Enterprises

    Brookfield, Lennar, Lewis, Stratham

    Rancho Mission Viejo, LLC

    Gramling Brothers Real Estate & Development

    Baldwin, Cornerstone, HomeFed, Stratford Land

    Tavistock Group

    K. Hovnanian, Lennar, Taylor Morrison

    Eastland Development Group

    Shea Homes, Toll Brothers

    Willowsford Management, LLC

    Daybreak Communities

    Vistancia Land Holdings/Stratford Land

    Provident Realty Advisors

    The LandWell Company

    The Viera Company

    Johnson Development Corp.

    Rank increased 1Estimates 2PreliminaryRank declined

    19,186 15,371 25% TOP 25 TOTALBold=Multiple MPCs on list

  • 3Top MPCs of 2017 | John Burns Real Estate Consulting

    2017 2016 RANK DEVELOPER NET SALES YOY% ∆

    SOURCE: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC (January 2018)

    PROJECT NAME AND LOCATION 2017 2016

    Top Master-Planned Communities of 2017

    50 26 22

    27T 21

    27T 14

    29 37

    30 NR

    31 7

    32 23t

    33 NR

    34 34

    35 NR

    36 30

    37 26

    38 NR

    39 46

    40 31

    41 38t

    42 NR

    43 27

    44 33

    45 38t

    46 44

    47T NR

    47T 23T

    47T NR

    50 32

            429 413

            428 426

            428 476

            423 333

            400 270

            399 489

            397 377

            395 386

            382 348

            379 55

            372 359

            368 373

            367 287

            361 301

           356 358

            345 317

            340 248

            337 365

            334 351

            324 315

            320 307

            315 252

            315 377

            315 163

            314 352

    4%

    0%

    -10%

    27%

    48%

    -18%

    5%

    2%

    10%

    589%

    4%

    -1%

    28%

    20%

    -1%

    9%

    37%

    -8%

    -5%

    3%

    4%

    25%

    -16%

    93%

    -11%

    VERRADO Phoenix, AZ

    ALIANA Houston, TX

    SIENA Austin, TX

    BRIDGELAND Houston, TX

    ESTRELLA Phoenix, AZ

    ALAMO RANCH San Antonio, TX

    CROSS CREEK RANCH Houston, TX

    BRUNSWICK FOREST2 Wilmington, NC

    SUMMERLAKE Orlando, FL

    WALLIS RANCH East Bay Area, CA

    SIENNA PLANTATION Houston, TX

    WESTPARK2 Sacramento, CA

    BEREWICK Charlotte, NC

    TRADITION Port St. Lucie, FL

    GREEN VALLEY RANCH Denver, CO

    MOUNTAIN'S EDGE Las Vegas, NV

    THE WOODLANDS Houston, TX

    WOODFOREST Houston, TX

    WILDWOOD AT NORTHPOINTE2 Houston, TX

    WATERSET Tampa, FL

    HARVEST2 Fort Worth, TX

    HARVEST GREEN Houston, TX

    CANYON LAKES WEST Houston, TX

    SKYE CANYON Las Vegas, NV

    PHILLIPS CREEK RANCH Dallas, TX

    DMB

    Aliana Development Company

    John Lloyd Development

    The Howard Hughes Company

    Newland Communities

    Galo Properties

    Johnson Development Corp.

    Brunswick Forest Realty, LLC

    Starwood Land

    Trumark Homes

    Johnson Development Corp.

    Westpark Communities

    Pappas Properties

    Tradition Land Company

    Oakwood Homes

    Focus Property Group

    The Woodlands Development Company

    Johnson Development Corp.

    Friendswood Development Company (Lennar)

    Newland Communities

    Hillwood Communities

    Johnson Development Corp.

    Land Tejas Company

    Olympia Companies

    Republic Property Group

    28,329 23,669 20% TOP 50 TOTALRank increased 1Estimates 2PreliminaryRank declined

    Bold=Multiple MPCs on list

  • Top Master-Planned Communities of 201750

    4Top MPCs of 2017 | John Burns Real Estate Consulting

    Four Masterplans Exceed 1,000 Sales in 2017 By Jody Kahn, Senior Vice President, and Devyn Bachman, Senior Research Analyst

    Masterplan sales surged in 2017. Irvine Ranch, The Villages, Lakewood Ranch, and Summerlin all captured over 1,000 net homes sales in 2017. Sales in a number of western US communities swelled, while many communities in Florida and Texas captured fewer sales as they wind down or face more competition. Texas usually dominates the top 25 ranking, but only Riverstone in Houston and Paloma Creek in Dallas had enough sales this year. We contacted 370 masterplans—many of whom we advise on market, segmentation, amenity, and marketing strategies—to arrive at our ranking. Together, the top 50 masterplans sold 28,329 homes, reflecting a 20% year-over- year increase from 2016. Their combined 2017 sales represent approximately 4.5% of all new home sales nationally. We spotted several notable trends this year.

    These factors guide our ranking:

    • Multiple builders selling • Shared or reciprocal amenities • Consistent entries, street names,

    lighting, etc. • Community brand and marketing

    Regional Shifts in the Top 25 • California and Southwest masterplans together

    account for 56% of the 2017 top-selling communities, up from 48% one year ago.

    • Southern California masterplans represent 24% of the top 25, rising from 16% in 2016.

    • The Southwest’s market share jumped to 28% from 24% one year ago.

    • Texas captures 8% of our 2017 top 25, dropping from 28% last year.

    • Florida’s share rose to 28% from 20% in 2016.by 2016 Net Sale

    Strong Phoenix and Las Vegas sales gains. The Summerlin and Inspirada masterplans in Las Vegas and Eastmark and Vistancia in Phoenix all report phenomenal 2017 sales that promoted them in this year’s ranking. We have been tracking the significant sales improvement in Phoenix and Las Vegas via our consulting assignments and monthly builder survey over the last 12–18 months. Developers and builders report improved demand across the full spectrum of buyer types and submarkets. Steady job growth supports demand, with a boost from retirees in Phoenix and Californians relocating to Las Vegas. Phoenix and Las Vegas are still gaining traction in their reco