Top 10 Countries Affected With Gb

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Global Warming hits 10 countries worst

Here is a lit of top 10 countries worst hit by climate risks from 1990 to 2008.

1. Bangladesh

In all, 654 events were registered worldwide in 2008, which caused around 93,700 deaths and economic losses of more than $123 billion. Only around a third had been insured, primarily in developed countries.

The fact that no further peak catastrophe has happened in Bangladesh, like in 1991 when 140,000 people died, ispartial proof that it is possible to better prepare for climate risks and prevent larger-scale disasters.

Climate Risk Index (CRI) score: 8.0 Annual death toll due to extreme climate: 8,241Total losses: $2,198 million (purchasing power parity)Losses per unit of Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 1.81%

2. Myanmar

In Myanmar, more than 95 per cent of the damages and fatalities occurred in 2008 because of cyclone Nargis.Cyclone Nargis killed as many as 100,000 people. One million people were rendered homeless. Many towns and

villages were been washed away.

Climate Risk Index (CRI) score: 8.25 Annual death toll due to extreme climate: 4,522Total losses: $707 millionLosses per unit of Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2.55%

3. Honduras

Honduras has been hit by severe tropical storms and hurricanes over the years. Hurricane Mitch, which hit thecountry in 1998 changed the landscape of Honduras. In 2008, abut 200,000 people were affected by severe floodingcaused by heavy rains, and 20,000 people have been forced to flee their homes.

Climate Risk Index (CRI) score: 12.00 Annual death toll due to extreme climate: 340Total losses: $660 millionLosses per unit of Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 3.37%

4. Vietnam

Over the last decade, the frequency and severity of droughts and floods have intensified, increasing their impact onliving conditions. Many people have been affected by cyclones and hailstorms.

Climate Risk Index (CRI) score: 18.83 Annual death toll due to extreme climate: 466Total losses: $1,525 millionLosses per unit of Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 1.31%

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5. Nicaragua

Nicaragua has been often hit by earthquakes, hurricanes, floods and volcano eruptions.

Climate Risk Index (CRI) score: 21 Annual death toll due to extreme climate: 164Total losses: $211millionLosses per unit of Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2.03%

6. Haiti



Four storms -- Fay, Gustav, Hanna, and Ike -- devastated this poverty-struck nation. About 800,000 people wereaffected in 2008. Haiti's poverty, weak infrastructure, vulnerable environment and fiscal problems worsen the impactof a natural disaster.

Climate Risk Index (CRI) score: 22.83 Annual death toll due to extreme climate: 335

Total losses: $95 millionLosses per unit of Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 1.08%

7. India

Natural disasters have caused extensive damage to India over the years. Droughts, flash floods, cyclones,avalanches, landslides brought on by torrential rains, and snowstorms pose the greatest threats.

Floods are the most common natural disaster in India.China, India, Bangladesh and the Philippines belong to thosecountries that are most often hit by extremes which, of course, is partially due to their large size and/or specificexposure to extreme weather events, the study states.

8. Dominican Republic

The hurricane season in the Caribbeans frequently coincides with heavy rains, which leads to flash floods and

landslides. Earthquakes are a potential threat and tremors are felt occasionally.

Climate Risk Index (CRI) score: 27.58 Annual death toll due to extreme climate: 222Total losses: $191 millionLosses per unit of Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 0.45

9. The Philippines

A disaster-prone country, the Philippines is recurrently hit by natural disasters: typhoons, earthquakes. ThePhilippines faces on average 20 typhoons each year.

Climate Risk Index (CRI) score: 27.67 Annual death toll due to extreme climate: 799Total losses: $544 million

Losses per unit of Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 0.30%

10. China

China is one of the countries most affected by natural disasters. It had 6 of the world's top 10 deadliest naturaldisasters, which include floods, droughts, ecological disasters, forest and grassland fires.

China had been hit badly hit by Typhoon Hagupit in 2008. About 70,000 people were killed and 18,000 people werereported missing after a 7.9-magnitude earthquake struck Sichuan, China in 2008.Climate Risk Index (CRI) score: 28.58

Annual death toll due to extreme climate: 2,023Total losses: $25,961 millionLosses per unit of Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 0.78%



The Potential Effects of Global Warming

By Thomas M. Socha, M.S.

INTRODUCTION April 1996, saw the one hundredth anniversary of the publication by the Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius in 1896.

This was the first attempt to quantify the influence of the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) and the

changes of the earth¶s surface temperature from these greenhouse gases.

During 1997, the world set another temperature record, continuing a long-term global warming trend

for which humans are mostly responsible, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

scientists reported in January 1998. By international agreement, the normal temperature for Earth is

defined as 61.7rF, the average for the years 1961-1990. Land and ocean readings averaged three-

quarters of a degree Fahrenheit above normal, topping the record set in 1990 by fifteen-hundredths of a

degree. Counting the 1997 rise, the planet has warmed by more than 1 degree over the last century

(Boyd, Robert).

What is global warming (greenhouse effect)? Carbon is release from the burning of fossil fuels and

other carbon based materials. Carbon dioxide gas is a major contributor to global warming or the

greenhouse effect. Carbon dioxide with other greenhouse gases, act like a pane of glass in a

greenhouse. They let in visible light from the sun but prevent some of the degrade infrared radiation, or

heat, from escaping back into space. They reradiate it back toward the earth surface. The resulting heat

buildup raises the temperature of the air in the troposphere. However, without a natural greenhouse

effect, Earth would be 33rC cooler than it is now (Rauber: 34).

The global average atmospheric concentration of CO2 in 1990 was 353 parts per million by volume

(ppmv), and was increasing at an average rate of 1.8 ppmv/yr. The atmospheric CO2 concentration has



been monitored continuously since 1958 when the concentration was 315 ppmv and the rate of

increase was 0.6 ppmv/yr. The preindustrial CO2 concentration has been determined by analyzing air

bubbles trapped in Greenland and Antarctic ice. These studies reveal that between 1000 and 1800 the

CO2 concentration averaged 280 ppmv, varying by only 10 ppmv around this mean (IPCC, 1990, at 11).

Ice core studies in Antarctica have now extended the record of atmospheric CO2 back to 220,000 years

before present (yrBP). There is a strong correlation between CO2 concentrations and polar temperature

over this entire period, with CO2 concentrations of 280 to 300 ppmv during relatively warm periods such

as the present (0-10,000 yrBP and 120,000 yrBP) and concentrations of 180-200 ppmv during ice ages

(18,000 yrBP and 160,000 yrBP). Current CO2 concentrations are substantially higher than they have

been any time in the last 220,000 years (Jouzel: 408).

It is estimated that the climate sensitivity (the equilibrium surface air temperature rise due to a doubling

of carbon dioxide) to be between 1.5 and 4.5rC according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change (IPCC) in 1996. The prediction for future rate of global warming ranges between 0.1r and 0.3rC

per decade. The IPCCs scientific assessment under a business-as-usual (no major reduction) emission

scenario global average temperatures are likely to rise by more than 5rF (3rC) compared to preindustrial

levels by the end of the next century (Lashof: 7 (1993)).

These dramatic increases in the Earths surface temperature from the 1980s and continuing into the

1990s made global warming an international household phase. Beginning in 1988 the first Conference

of Parties (COP I) to the United Nations Convention on Climate Change in Toronto, Canada started the

framework to a legally binding global treaty on greenhouse gases. The December 1997, COP III in

Kyoto, Japan made it possible for a major agreement to be reached between 155 countries including the

United States which has four percent of the worlds population, but is responsible for 22 percent of the

carbon emissions. The agreement calls for a reduction in greenhouse gases among developing and



developed countries. However, there is still need for more COPs before a finalized international treaty

can be reached. In following sections this paper will discuss the effects of greenhouse gases with

emphasis on carbon dioxide.

EMISSION OF GREENHOUSE GASES Greenhouse gases make up only a tiny fraction of the atmosphere, but they can have a big impact, and

their proportion is rising rapidly as economic development speeds up around the world. Since the

beginning of the Industrial Revolution in middle of the 18th century, levels of carbon dioxide have

jumped 30 percent, nitrous oxide 15 percent, and methane 100 percent. At present develop countries

emissions account for approximately 60 percent of global total. But, developing countries emissions are

growing rapidly, and by 2020, will account for more than half of the worlds emissions. China, which is

already the worlds second-largest emitter, will surpass the United States within 15 years. The following

subsections describe some the emission sources and the amount of emissions of the greenhouse gases

(Rauber 36).

Emissions of Carbon Dioxide

The carbon content in the atmosphere was quite constant during the last 10,000 years, but major

changes have been observed since the industrial revolution. The total carbon burden in the atmosphere

has increased from 600 to 760 billion tons in 1992. At present, as much as 7 billion tons of carbon

enters the atmosphere annually. The net flux is estimated at about 3.2 billion tons. Combustion of fossil

fuels is by far the main anthropogenic source of carbon dioxide. The total emissions of carbon dioxide

from fossil fuel burning, cement manufacturing, and gas flaring was estimated at 6.2 billion tons carbon

in 1992 (Pacyna and Graedel: 277).



Emissions of Methane

Methane is an important greenhouse gas that accounts for about 15% of the current greenhouse

forcing, based on model calculations. Methane sources are numerous, diverse, and geographically

dispersed. The total emissions estimate of 442-542 million tons of carbon per year (Pacyna and Graedel:

278).

Emissions of Nitrous Oxide

Many anthropogenic sources of the gas are also known, including fertilizer fields, animal nitrogen

excretion, postburn effects of land use changes, fossil fuel combustion, trash incineration, traffic and

some industrial activities. The total emissions range from 12.3 - 22.8 million tons of N2O-N, with more

than half from natural sources (Pacyna and Graedel: 279).

Emission of Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and Other Halocarbons

Since they were introduced in the 1930s, CFCs have become widely used for refrigeration, air-

conditioning, aerosol propellants, production of foam packing and insulation, and as solvents. Halons

are used in fire extinguishers. The production and release of CFCs has been declining in the past few

years as a result of the Montreal Protocol agreements to limit and eventually stop production of the

compounds (Pacyna and Graedel: 280).

INCREASES IN GREENHOUSE GAS CONCENTRATION FROM HUMAN ACTIVITIES

There is no doubt that human activity caused the observed increase in atmospheric CO2. The IPCC cites

four independent lines of evidence. First, the steady rise in CO2 concentrations since 1800 contrasts

sharply with the nearly constant concentration during the previous 1000 years. There is simply no



plausible natural change in the carbon cycle that could account for this change over this time period.

Second, the observed CO2 concentration history since 1800 is closely related to the cumulative

emissions of CO2 from fossil fuels and deforestation. Indeed the accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere

is consistently less than the emissions, as expected due to CO2 uptake by the oceans. Third, the CO2

concentration difference between the Northern Hemisphere and the Southern Hemisphere has

increased from 1 ppmv in 1960 to 3 ppmv in 1985, consistent with growth in the rate of fossil fuel

emissions concentrated in the Northern Hemisphere. Finally, the observed trends in the abundance of

heavier carbon isotopes relative to the most common (lighter) form of carbon in atmospheric CO2 is

consistent with expectations given the relative ratios found in fossil fuel and plant carbon (IPCC, 1990 at

14).

Therefore, the observed atmospheric CO2 increase is due to fossil fuel combustion and deforestation is

fully consistent with the fact that the average CO2 molecule resides in the atmosphere for 3-5 years

before being exchanged with carbon in the ocean or terrestrial biosphere (3.9 years based on the

exchange rate estimates adopted by the IPCC) (Lashof: 5).

CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECONOMIC EFFECTS

Ecological systems are the very foundation of our society in science, agriculture, social and economic

planning. Five essential biological systems croplands, forests, grasslands, oceans, and fresh waterways

support world economy. Except for fossil fuels and minerals, they supply all the raw materials for

industry and provide all our food.

y Cropland supply food, feed, and an endless array of raw materials for industry such as fiber and

vegetable oils.



y Forests are the source of fuel, lumber, paper, and countless other products, and countless other

products, and house valuable watersheds that provide drinking water for growing urban areas.

y

Grasslands provide meat, milk, leather and wool.

y And oceans and freshwater produce food for individuals and resources for industry.

Stated in the jargon of the business world, you could say the economy is a wholly owned subsidiary of

the environment. But when we pollute, degrade, and irretrievably comprise that ecological capital, we

begin to serious damage to the economy (Wirth: 22).

Wildlife

Animals are beginning to shift their populations northward or to higher elevations. In comprehensive

research reported in 1996, Camille Parmesan of the University of California at Santa Barbara

documented range changes in a tiny butterfly called Ediths checkerspot the first study of how a

species reacts to warmer temperatures across its entire habitat. After surveying 151 locations,

Parmesan found that the butterfly was declining at the southern edge of its range, with Mexican

populations of the species four times as likely to be extinct as those in Canada. Southern populations of

the butterfly had also shifted to higher, cooler elevations, she found (Moore: 22).

Since marine life is sensitive to water temperature, the distribution of some organisms will change, and

some species may die off. To compare sea life in 1993-94 to what it was more than 60 years earlier,

marine expert J.P. Barry of the Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute collected more than 58,000

specimens from the same site in Monterey Bay, California, where a similar underwater census had been

conducted in 1931. During the intervening years, eight of nine species that preferred warmer waters

had increased significantly in numbers. By contrast, animals preferring colder waters had declined



sharply. Researchers have observed similar changes elsewhere, including off Southern California and at

tiny Macquarie Island, halfway between Tasmania and the frozen Antarctic continent (Moore: 24).

Perhaps the most disturbing changes are to sensitive coral reefs, which are susceptible to runoff and

other pollution and can die of as water warms. Since the first-ever reports of coral death, or bleaching,

in 1979-80, die-offs have been reported in 60 places, with 95 percent of the coral killed in some areas

(Moore: 25).

In 1990, caribou migrating to the coastal plain of northern Alaska found that the earliest spring in nearly

40 years had caused their principal forage to go to seed, depriving them of crucial nourishment. In the

High Arctic, unseasonable warmth could collapse the snow dens of the ringed seal, leaving the pups

vulnerable. Together the with a reduction in the extent of pack ice, this decline in the seal population

could spell the end for the king of the north, the polar bear (Rauber: 38).

Another problem is freshwater fish species that dependent on cold water (e.g. salmon, trout, walleye,

pike, and muskie) are susceptible to rises in water temperature. A 5rF rise in average water

temperatures would devastate many trout populations. A 1996 EPA study concluded that 24 states

could lose 50 to 100 percent of their coldwater fish populations (Rauber 38).

Vegetation

One study using two scenarios of global warming (GISS and GFDL) by Mikhail A. Vedyushkin predicted

changes vegetation on the Earth surface. He concludes that there are small increase of forest and

decrease of nonforest vegetation area are predicted by both scenarios.

Among the significant changes predicted by both scenarios are (Vedyushkin: 10):



y The transition of tundra to forest types (Temperate evergreen seasonal broad-leaved forest; Cold-

deciduous forest, with and without evergreens; and Evergreen needle-leafed woodland) found in

the Russian arctic and Far East, in north Scandinavia, Iceland, Canada, and Alaska;

y The Emergence of large non-forested areas with vegetation types (Drought-deciduous

shurbland/thicket; Xeromorphic shurbland/thicket; Tall/medium/short grassland with 10-40%

woody tree cover; Tall/short grassland with shrub cover; and Meadow with short grassland, no

woody cover) found in Yakuita to the east from lake Baikal in Russia and in Canada on some areas

presently occupied by forest types;

y Territories presently attributed to types (Temperate evergreen seasonal broad-leafed forest,

summer rain and Cold-deciduous forest, with evergreens) vegetation on Matthews Map in

Southeastern United Sates and east China decrease in area. This vegetation will be replaced by

other forest and non-forest types such as (Tropical/subtropical drought-deciduous forest; Cold-

deciduous forest, with evergreens; Evergreen broad-leaved; Tropical/subtropical drought-deciduous

woodland; Tall/medium/short grassland with 10-40% woody tree cover; Tall/medium/short

grassland, <10% woody tree or tuft-plant cover, and Tall/short grassland, no woody cover).

Shrubs have invaded and are in some cases replacing native grasslands worldwide, says USDA-ARS

plant ecologist H. Wayne Polley of Temple Texas. Rising CO2 levels over the past 200 years may be

partially responsible, he says. That is because some plants seem to benefit more than others from the

extra CO2. Woody plant populations tend to increase as precipitation increases. Improving plants

water use efficiency could be having the same effect as having more rain, Polley says. In much of

Texas, mesquite has replaced the native prairie grasses. Such a shift in the vegetation can have

widespread impacts: less forage available for livestock grazing, a shift in wildlife species that inhabit the



area, changes in soil nutrient cycling, and increased erosion because shallow-rooted grasses no longer

hold soil in place (Stelljes: 13).

The following subsections discuss the effects of climate change pertaining to forests and agriculture.

Forests

The forests of the next century will be dramatically different. The sugar maple could virtually disappear

from the United States. With a doubling of atmospheric CO2, the ranges of birch, hemlock, and beech

trees could also shift 300 to 600 miles to the north. University of California researchers estimate that

global warming could render 20 to 50 percent of the states natural areas unsuitable for their current

species (Thompson: 38 ). Given the right conditions, fast-growing trees like spruce can move up to 100

yards a year. For most species, however, progress is measured in feet per decade. Spruce forests are

already advancing into what is now tundra; a doubling of CO2 is expected to reduce the tundras size by

30 percent (Rauber 39).

Agriculture

The potential impact of climate change on agriculture is also of great concern. An authoritative

international study of the impacts of global warming on food security concludes that as many as 63 to

369 million additional people could be at risk of hunger in 2060 if global warming is not controlled. The

analysis involved three steps:

1. detailed crop modeling, accounting for the direct effects of CO2 as well as climate change;

2. global food trade modeling, accounting for changes in technology and farm-level responses to

price changes; and 3) case studies of vulnerable regions (Stinner, B. et al., Appendix C).



A key finding of the study is that crop production is likely to decline in developing countries, but could

increase in developed countries. Cereal production in developing countries is projected to decline by 9

to 11 percent in 2060 relative to production in the absence of climate change. Meanwhile, developed

country cereal production could rise by as much as 11 percent or fall by 4 percent, depending on the

climate scenario. Overall, global production would decline by 1 to 8 percent. This decline in production

leads to higher food prices and the increase in the number of people at risk of hunger (Lashof: 5 (1993)).

Agricultural experts examined the potential for adaptive responses (beyond price-induced effects) to

mitigate the impacts of climate change. They found that a "full adaptation effort", including changes in

planting times and extensive irrigation, could partially or completely offset the decline in global food

production, although production in developing countries would still be reduced by 5 to 7 percent

compared to the base case. If this level of adaptation could be achieved the number of people at risk of

hunger in 2060 might decline by 12 million or increase by 119 million, depending on the climate

scenario. The costs and feasibility of such an adaptation effort was not studied (Lashof: 5 (1993)).

Some have asserted that global warming will be benign because it will occur primarily at night and will

be accompanied by the fertilizing effect of higher CO2 concentrations. Unfortunately there is no reason

to accept this sanguine view. First, it should be noted that the CO2 fertilization effect has already been

taken into account in the study of global agriculture just described, and higher CO2 levels will do noting

to mitigate agricultural losses on land that has been inundated by sea-level rise. Second, although there

is evidence that the warming over Northern Hemisphere land areas measured during the last 40 years is

primarily due to increases in daily minimum (night) temperatures, there is no scientific basis for

assuming that the same would hold true for greenhouse gas-induced warming during the next century,

especially if day time temperature increases have been suppressed to date by increases in sulfate

aerosol concentrations. Analysis of climate processes and feedbacks using three-dimensional computer



models (General Circulation Models or GCMs) do predict some decrease in the day-to-night

temperature difference due to greenhouse warming, but substantial increases would occur in both the

maximum and minimum temperature (IPCC, 1992, at 119, 151-152). Third, even if greenhouse warming

is greater at night there is little evidence that this will mitigate the impacts of climate change. Sea-level

rise is driven primarily by the average temperature increase and is not particularly sensitive to changes

in the day-night cycle; disruption of natural ecosystems can be expected to be equally severe; and the

rise in nighttime temperatures is precisely the factor controlling increases in the range of tropical

diseases such as malaria and pest damage to crops (Stinner, Appendix C). Indeed, the only consequence

of global warming likely to be mitigated if there were a decrease in the diurnal temperature cycle is heat

and drought stress to crops, but it should be noted that much of the yield reductions found in the study

cited above were due other factors, such as a shortening of the development period.

ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES (FLOODING, HURRICANES, DROUGHTS)

The potential damage to coastal communities and ecosystems from sea-level rise is perhaps the most

easily quantified risk of climate change (though this does not necessarily mean it is the most important).

The IPCC projects a rise of 1-3.5 feet (30-110 centimeters) by 2100 under a business-as-usual scenario as

a result of thermal expansion of the ocean and the melting of mountain glaciers as well as changes in

the water balance in Greenland and Antarctica (IPCC 1990, at 277). Recent observations suggesting that

Greenland may currently be accumulating rather than discharging ice may reflect short-term local

temperature anomalies (Greenland appears to have cooled by 0.9rF (0.5rC) during the period 1977- 86)

and are not a sound basis for projecting Greenland's contribution to sea-level rise decades into the

future (Schneider: 11). The possibility of a much greater sea-level increase than projected by the IPCC

(e.g. 30 feet) is based (and has always been based) on the risk that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet could



collapse rather suddenly due to global warming. Although the probability of this occurring now appears

to be remote, it still cannot be ruled out.

The regions most vulnerable to sea-level rise according to the IPCC Impacts Assessment are highly

populous river deltas such as the Nile delta in Egypt, the Ganges in Bangladesh, the Yangtze and Hwang

Ho in China, and the Mekong in Vietnam. A 3-foot (1 meter) rise in sea level would inundate 12-15% of

Egypt's arable land and 17% of Bangladesh (IPCC: 6-3 (1990)). In these two countries alone more than

20 million people would be displaced (Edgerton: 72). In industrialized countries such as the United

States densely populated urban centers can be protected by sea walls. Nonetheless, the United States

would loose 8000 square miles (20,000 km2) of land, valued at about $650 billion, and 30-80% of its

coastal wetlands (IPCC, Working Group II, op cit: 6-4, 6-9). These problems will only be compounded if

the potential for global warming to increase the intensity of hurricanes and other storms is realized

(IPCC 1990: 154).

It appears that global warming already has increased the frequency of heavy rains in the United States.

Which is caused by warmer air can hold more water vapor than cooler air can, so when it rains it really

pours. An extraordinary series of floods has hit the United States since 1993, racking up over $25 billion

of losses. It is beginning to look like a pattern. Paradoxically, the rising temperature also seems to be

increasing the frequency of droughts (water evaporates faster from soil when air is warmer). The

drought of 1988, cost farmers more than $15 billion.

DISEASES CAUSE BY INCREASES IN THE EARTHS SURFACE TEMPERATURE

Thirty of the new diseases that emerged in the last 20 years, many thrive in warmer and wetter

weather. Lyme disease is linked to warmer, humid conditions that breed more deer ticks.



Malaria kills about 1 to 2 million people a year worldwide. About 90 percent of new cases occur in

Africa and Southeast Asia. Although the disease is now rare in developed countries, that could change

with global warming. As soon as 50 years from now, malaria could spread to parts of the world that are

now too cold to support life cycle of the mosquitoes and their parasites that transmit the disease

(Discover Magazine, 3-1-1996: 15).

Thus, global warming in North America could extend the distribution of the mosquito vectors Aedes

aegypti and A. albopictus. There has also been a fourfold increase in malaria in the last five years is

associated with heat and humidity the development of the mosquito larvae is faster in warmer climates,

resulting in the mosquitoes becoming adults sooner. Also, the extrinsic incubation periods of yellow

fever and dengue viruses in the mosquito vectors are dependent on temperature. With warmer

temperatures, the incubation time required from when the mosquito first encounters an infected host

until the mosquito is able to transmit an infection virus may be shortened. Recent years have also seen

a marked increased in dengue fever, with 320,000 reported cases in the Americas (Cross and Hyams:

724 ).

Emerging so-called hemorrhageic diseases, such as ebola, machupo and hanta virus could also be

related to climatic conditions. Dr. Eric Chivian, director of the Harvard center, said hanta, which was

first detected in the southwestern United States in 1993, emerged after six years of drought that killed

off predators of disease-carrying mice, followed by heavy rains and snows during which the mice

population rose tenfold (Lakshmanan: A12)

Another deadly threat is the resurgence of cholera, which thrives in the higher water temperatures of a

warmer world; it has already been found in the Chesapeake Bay. A 1991 cholera epidemic South

America killed 5,000 people.



Global Climate Change and Bangladesh

During the last 100 years human population soared from little more than one to six billionand economic activity increased nearly 10-fold between 1950 and 2000. The world¶s

population is more tightly connected than ever before via globalization of economies andinformation flows. Half of Earth¶s land surface has been domesticated for direct human

use.It is now known that the accelerating pace of human activities (both agricultural and

industrial) has caused, among other things, an increasing accumulation of polyatomicmolecules such as carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), various chloroflucarbons (CFC s ), methane

(CH 4 ), nitrous oxides and other which absorb the infrared radiation emitted by theEarth¶s surface (Figure 37). They add to the ³greenhouse effect´ of atmospheric water

vapour and natural CO2 , causing an augmentation of long wave infra-red radiationemitted downwards by the atmosphere and absorbed by the Earth¶s surface. This is

largely responsible for what is now referred to as global warming.

1. The evidence that these changes are affecting the basic functioning of the EarthSystem particularly the climate grows stronger every year.2. Global warming is the observed increase in the average t4emperature of the

Earth¶s atmosphere and oceans in recent decades. The Earth¶s average nearsurfaceatmospheric temperature rose 0.6 ± 0.2 0 Celsius (1.1 ± 0.4 0 Fahrenheit)

in the 20th century. The prevailing scientific opinion on climate change is that³most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human

activities. The increased amounts of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and other green housegases (GHG s ) are the primary causes of the human-induced component of

warming. They are released by the burning of fossil fuels, clearing, agriculture,and lead to an increase in the greenhouse effect. The term µglobal warming is a

specific case of the more general term µclimate change¶.3. Based on estimates by NASA¶s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2005 was the

warmest year since reliable, widespread instrumental measurements becameavailable in the late 1800 s , exceeding the previous record sit in 1998 by a few

hundredths of a degree Celsius. The enclosed diagram shows that the globaltemperature has recently moved well outside the range of natural variability

exhibited over at least the last half million years. Its magnitude and rate of changeis unprecedented in human history and perhaps in the history of the earth.

4. The global sea level has risen by between 10 and 20 cm over the past 100 yearsand much of the rise may be related to the increase in global mean temperature.

From around 1850 onward, most of the world¶s glaciers including those of the

Alpine regions, Mt. Kilimanjaro in Africa and Mt. Chacaltaya in Bolivia, have been retreating. The retreats of glaciers in the mountainous regions of the worldare striking indicators of climate changes. The Arctic ice is thinning. The ice is

about 40 per cent thinner than what it was at the beginning of the last century. It isspread has also noticeably declined. The WMO/UNEP Intergovernmental Panel

on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted that the globally averaged surfacetemperature is projected to increase by 1.4-5.8 0 C between 1990 and 2100. It is

very likely that nearly all land areas will warm more rapidly than the global



average. Global mean sea level is projected to rise by 9-88 cm between 1990 and2100. The prospect of rising sea level is one of the most widely recognized

potential impacts of climate change. Sea level rise as well as climate and weather extremes cause problems associated with beach erosion, siltating of waterways

and flood risk in coastal communities.

5. Bangladesh would be one of the most severely affected countries in this regard.Under the present estimate of about one meter rise of sea level by the year 2100, asubstantial area of the country will go under water. One-meter rise of sea level

will inundate approximately 17% of the total area of Bangladesh. This will affect7% of GDP of Bangladesh. Thus, it has far-reaching consequences for

Bangladesh if the estimate comes true. This rise of ocean water will force more population to be congested into smaller areas and will force migration, inundate

wetlands and lowlands, accelerate coastal erosion, and increase salt water intrusion into rivers, agricultural and coastal forest lands and into groundwater.

This will in turn create multiple problems in coastal urban areas, cause damage to port facilities and coastal embankments/structures, destroy agricultural land,

dislodge mangroves and fisheries, and affect cyclone and storm surge protectivemeasures in coastal areas. The poverty alleviation programme will be seriously

hampered and there will be serious damage to bio-diversity. UNEPJ reported thatloss of original habitat in Bangladesh is already 94%. A theoretical model of

tropical storms suggests that maximum possible intensity would increase by 40%in its destructive power for an increase of 3 0C of SST s . The enhanced

evaporation over the Bay of Bengal during the monsoon season as predicted in themodel simulation, leading to increased moisture convergence and latent heat

release may increase the number and duration of tropical cyclones in a warmer atmosphere.

6. The number of severe cyclonic storms that affected Bangladesh over a ten year period from 1780-1998. This shows that in the past, in some ten, twenty or thirty

year period Bangladesh was not affected by any tropical cyclone. But this haschanged in recent years. Since 1960 onwards, there is no ten year period when

tropical cyclone was absent. During the period 1960-1970, there occurred tensevere cyclones in Bangladesh averaging one cyclone every year. The human

casualties were also tremendous. During the 12 Nov. 1970 cyclone alone, fivelakh people died. Though the frequency has decreased recently than during 1960-

70, it still has a significant value. During 29 April, 1991 another cyclone of verysevere intensity hit Bangladesh, where human casualty was one lakh thirty eight

thousand. In the last few years, human casualties have declined because of taking protective measures. 1997 Cyclone of Bangladesh was almost of the same

intensity as in 1970 or 1991 but the casualty has been much less. In the coastalareas, some 2500 cyclone shelters have been built. Thus we find that during the

last forty years, tropical cyclones hitting Bangladesh far exceeds those in anycorresponding period of recorded history.

7. Flood: The flood-affected area of Bangladesh has also undergone significantincrease. There is no adequate record of past flood data. However, from 1954

onwards, flood record exists. Significant peak flooding occurred in 1955, 1974,1987, 1988, 1998 and 2004. It is significant that in each succeeding peak year, the



area affected exceeds that in the previous peak. In 1998, nearly two third of thecountry was affected by flood which lasted for more than two months which is

rather very unusual.10. R ainfall trend: A regression analysis of rainfall for various stations in

Bangladesh was carried out for the years 1960-1992. The analysis shows an

increasing trend in rainfall between 150-350 mm in most of the places at 95%confidence level. This gives an annual increase of 8mm/year of rainfall inBangladesh. The rainfall decreased somewhat during last few years. But it may

start increasing again.11. Sea level rise of 4mm - 7.8mm / year at different points of Bangladesh coast has been

reported by SAARC Meteorological Centre, located at Dhaka. Part of this rise is due to

subsidence and part due to global warming.



Climate and Atmosphere-- Myanmar Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Emissions {a} Myanmar

Asia (excl.Middle East) World

(in thousand metric tons of CO2)Total Emissions, 1998 8,150 7,360,942 24,215,376Percent change since 1990 96% 38% 8%Emissions as a percent of global CO2 production 0.0% 30.4%Emissions in 1998 from:solid fuels 128 4,020,885 8,654,368liquid fuels 4,679 2,304,231 10,160,272gaseous fuels 3,151 580,898 4,470,080gas flaring 10 22,391 172,208cement manufacturing 182 432,537 758,448Per capita CO2 emissions, 1998(thousand metric tons of CO2) 0.2 2.1 4.1Percent change since 1990 80% 19% -2%

CO2 emissions (in metric tons) per milliondollars Gross Domestic Product {b}, 1998 X X 773Percent change since 1990 X X -10%Cumulative CO2 emissions, 1900-1999(in billion metric tons) 241 161,972 933,686CO2 Emissions by Sector, 1999 {c} (in million metric tons of CO2)Public electricity, heat production,and autoproducers 3 2,697 8,693Other Energy Industries 1 312 1,205Manufacturing Industries and Construction 1 1,915 4,337Transportation 3 943 5,505Residential 1 471 1,802Other Sectors {d} 0 580 5,640Total Emissions All Sectors: 9 6,918 27,180CO2 Intensity, 1999Emissions per total energy consumption(metric tons CO2 per terajoule energy) 17 56 56Emissions per Gross Domestic Product {e}(metric tons of CO2/million $PPP) 54 540 582

View more Country Profiles on-line at http://earthtrends.wri.orgCO2 Emissions by Source, Myanmar, 19982%57%39%

0%2% Solid FuelsLiquid FuelsGaseous FuelsGas Flaring

CementManufacturingPer Capita CO2 Emissions: 1950, 1975 and 19980123451950 1975 1998thousand metric tons of CO2



Myanmar Asia (excl.Middle East)World

CO2 Emissions by Sector, Myanmar, 199930%6%15%

36%9%4%Electricity and HeatProductionOther EnergyIndustriesManufacturing andConstructionTransportationResidencesOther Sectors

CO2 Emissions by Source, Myanmar, 19982%

57%39%

0%2% Solid FuelsLiquid FuelsGaseous FuelsGas FlaringCementManufacturing CO2 Emissions by Source, Myanmar, 1998

Top 10 Countries Affected With Gb

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