Tools and Analysis to Support Freight System Resilience Transportation Logistics Spring 2009.
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Transcript of Tools and Analysis to Support Freight System Resilience Transportation Logistics Spring 2009.
Why Resilience?
Supply chains leaner and longer Sense that disruptions are or will become,
more common Significant economic consequences from
disruptions A complex problem
Complexity
Enterprises are dynamic actors Economics are not well documented and vary by
organization Multitude of events and consequences External disruptions outside the purview of
transportation Consequences depend on actions Existing economic models poorly suited
System Elements
Concept Definition
Resiliencethe “ability to recover from or adjust easily to misfortune or
change”
Physical Infrastructure
the system of network of nodes and links (e.g. port facilities, distribution centers, warehouses, intermodal yards, bridges, rail lines, and roadways) sensors, and information technology infrastructure that support freight transportation and travel.
Managing Organization
the unit that oversees the construction, maintenance, and performance of the freight transportation physical infrastructure. This includes the management, utilization, and dissemination of roadway data.
System Usersbusiness enterprises that move goods on the transportation
infrastructure and utilize roadway information.
Concept Definition
Infrastructure Resilience
the ability of the network to move goods in the face of infrastructure failure, either through a reduction in capacity, a complete failure, or a failure in the information infrastructure to provide information.
Managing Organization Resilience
“the capacity to meet priorities and achieve goals in a timely and efficient manner in order to contain losses”.
Enterprise Resilience
the ability of an enterprise to move goods in a timely and efficient manner in the face of infrastructure disruption.
Freight Transportation System Resilience
the ability for the freight transportation system to absorb shocks and reduce the consequences of disruptions. Freight transportation system resilience can be deconstructed along its component dimensions: the infrastructure, the managing organization, and the system users.
Resilience Strategies
actions or behaviors of users or managing organizations, that promote resilience in one or a number of dimensions of the freight transportation system.
Properties
Examples of Applications of Resilience
Contribution to Freight Transportation System
ResiliencePhysical Infrastructure Managing OrganizationUser
Redundancy Availability of multiple & alternate routing options
Multiple information sources & points of delivery
Multiple parts & materials suppliers ; information backed up on distributed servers
Promotes flexibility ; supports robustness
Autonomy The ability of highway system to function when air space closed; independent signal controls for each intersection
Independence of functional units in an organization, e.g. approvals & decision making can be independent of established hierarchies
Independence of functional units in an enterprise, e.g. procurement, billing, manufacturing, & distribution
Supports system operability despite the failure of individual system components ; supports robustness
Collaboration Working partnership between federal, state, regional an d local public agencies to plan, construct and operate the full freight transportation network to optimize system use
Good internal communication across divisions & external communication with system users ; leadership across all levels of the organization
Public-private partnerships to build relationships between organizations
Supports innovative problem solving, reduces miscommunications, spreads risk across groups Promotes network, versus local, freight system optimization and resiliency.
Properties
Examples of Applications of Resilience
Contribution to Freight Transportation System
ResiliencePhysical Infrastructure
DimensionManaging Organization
DimensionUser
Dimension
Efficiency Network designs that reduce travel time between origin and destination
Use of effective mechanisms to prioritize spending within the organization and on infrastructure
Coordination across the supply chain with relationships built across the different parties
Allows resources to be spent on activities or projects that provide most benefit to the users
Adaptability Designed with short life-spans & the intent for regular replacement or for the capability to expand capacity without total facility reconstruction ; ability to assume diversity functions (e.g. adaptable-use HOV lanes)
Familiarity of roles and responsibilities across levels of the organization ; cross-trained employees ; leadership can be engaged at all levels. Defined roles and protocols during disruption and recovery phases.
Ability to postpone decision making & shipping ; build-to-order business model
Promotes flexibility & system efficiency ; supports robustness
Interdependence Seamless mode transfers ; intermodal facilities
Relationships are established across separate, but related agencies & within agencies ; mutual understanding of the value & benefit from interaction
Standardization of parts & interchangeability
Exhibits smooth connections and transitions across parts of the system ; promotes system efficiency ; spreads risk across the system to reduce risk
WSDOT Phase 1 Recommendations
1.Identify and Segment Customers of the Transportation System
2.Identify and quantify the objective of a FSR Plan for this region
3.Conduct a vulnerability assessment of the region’s transportation network
4.Create public/private collaboration mechanisms
5.Determine what regulatory and policy procedures need to be put into place
6.Agree on priority and trigger setting processes
7.Conduct a small-scale in-house simulation
8.Test the plan with a large scale simulation
Enterprise Behavior
As users of the system enterprises also contribute to system performance
Better enterprise planning creates better outcomes
Understanding enterprise behavior allows us to understand the current behavior and triggers
STRATEGIES CATEGORY REPORTED BY (ENTERPRISES )
Relationships Enabler A, D, F, G, J
Use of Information & Technology Enabler B, D, G,H, I
Communication Enabler A, B, D,F, G
Flexible Culture Enabler A, F, H
Flexible Transportation Tactic A, F, G, H
C-TPAT Certification Tactic A, E
DC Structure, Size of Network Tactic D,E, H
Resilient Nature of Suppliers Tactic F
Expedited Freight Tactic A, D,H, I
Use of Multiple Ports/Carriers Tactic B, E, H
Employees Overseas Tactic B
Extra Capacity at DC Tactic C
Off-Peak Deliveries Tactic E
Domestic Sourcing Tactic E
Premium Transportation Tactic H, I, J
Summary
Response to transportation disruption correlated with level of other risks inherent in supply chain
Tactics decrease efficiency and competitiveness outside of disrupted periods
Operational and communications solutions offer benefit in most cases
GIS Tool Development
Intermodal layer for each mode and terminal type
Cost functions to capture “cost” of flow along a link
Logic to ensure connectivity and capture capacity constraints
Can measure transportation impacts of capacity reductions and closures using scenario analysis
Case Studies
WA Potatoes Fresh and processed Fresh to market Estimate consequences of 24 hour closure of I-90
WA Fuel Terminal racks to diesel stations Identify infrastructure weaknesses and
dependencies Identify priority access routes
Goals
Estimate the truck trips per day within the state of Washington that are necessary to move potatoes between production locations, processing facilities, and consumption locations.
Consider a disruption to the transportation network, and identify the impact on these truck trips.
Motivation for the Potato Case Study Exercise the GIS tool
Identify the level of effort and data collection challenges of this approach to understanding the impacts from disruptions
Understand the movements of potatoes in the state
Potato Data Elements
Potato prices at field, retailer purchase price, and retail price
Origins and destinations for potatoes and potato products Volumes of potatoes for each origin and destination for all
potato products Quantity of potato loss Ratios of fresh potatoes to potato products Percentage of potatoes processed into each product in
each growing region Volume of potatoes held in a truckload for each product Location and type of potato processors Mode split Exit points for potatoes destined for locations outside the
state
Data Sources
AC Neilson United States Department of Agriculture
Market News National Agriculture Statistics
Washington State Potato Commission/WSU Survey Discussions with ConAgra Foods/Lamb Weston State of Washington Potato Committee (SWPC):
Disposition
Comments on potato production Modeled potato production as 3 regions, all trips
originate in centroids of these regions 94% capture rate
Skagit Valley Upper Basin Lower Basin
Production (Short Tons) 162,742 1,972,626 2,197,012
Recovery Rate 0.94 0.94 0.94
Total Purchased 152,977 1,854,268 2,065,191
Percent Fresh 86% 14% 14%
Percent Frozen 0 73% 73%
Percent Dehydrated 14% 11% 11%
Percent Chips 0 2% 2%
Potato Truck Trips
Under normal conditions potato trucks generate just over 11,000 truck miles each day
Truck Trips per daySkagit
ValleyUpper
BasinLower
Basin
Fresh 16.79 28.2 31.73
Frozen 0 70.46 81.14
Dehydrated 0 3.98 4.25
Chip 0 4.48 5.04
Disruption
Close the Cascade mountain passes on I-90, Highway 2, and Highway 12 for one day to replicate the impact of a severe winter storm.
SR410 and Highway 20 are closed seasonally.
Re-route the potato trucks to the next shortest path between their origin and destination.
20% of all truck trips cross the Cascades.
I90 carries most traffic
Normal Conditions
Truck Trips Fresh Frozen Dehy Chips
Hwy 2 East 4.3
Skagit to Moses Lake 0.13
Skagit to Spokane 1.40
Skagit to Warden 0.13
Skagit to other US State (excluding Oregon or California) 2.62
Hwy 2 West 1.8
Upper Basin to Stanwood 0.40 1.32 0.06 0.06
I-90 East 1.2
Skagit to Kennewick 0.50
Skagit to Yakima 0.37
Skagit to Grandview 0.37
I-90 West 32.4
Upper Basin to Seattle 0.56 1.83 0.08 0.09
Upper Basin to Tacoma 0.47 1.52 0.07 0.07
Upper Basin to Auburn 0.56 1.83 0.08 0.09
Upper Basin to Port of Seattle 3.70 9.04 0.52 0.59
Lower Basin to Seattle 1.28 4.15 0.17 0.20
Lower Basin to Stanwood 0.92 2.99 0.12 0.15
Lower Basin to Port of Seattle 0.35 0.84 0.05 0.05
410 West 10.6
Lower Basin to Tacoma 1.06 3.46 0.14 0.17
Lower Basin to Auburn 1.28 4.15 0.17 0.20
Eastbound favors fresh and northern
routes
Westbound traffic70% frozen
Disruption
Truck Trips Fresh Frozen Dehy Chips
SR 14 East 5.5
Skagit to Moses Lake 0.13
Skagit to Spokane 1.40
Skagit to Warden 0.13
Skagit to other US State (excluding Oregon or California) 2.62
Skagit to Kennewick 0.50
Skagit to Yakima 0.37
Skagit to Grandview 0.37
SR 14 West 44.8
Upper Basin to Stanwood 0.40 1.32 0.06 0.06
Upper Basin to Seattle 0.56 1.83 0.08 0.09
Upper Basin to Tacoma 0.47 1.52 0.07 0.07
Upper Basin to Auburn 0.56 1.83 0.08 0.09
Upper Basin to Port of Seattle 3.70 9.04 0.52 0.59
Lower Basin to Seattle 1.28 4.15 0.17 0.20
Lower Basin to Stanwood 0.92 2.99 0.12 0.15
Lower Basin to Port of Seattle 0.35 0.84 0.05 0.05
Lower Basin to Tacoma 1.06 3.46 0.14 0.17
Lower Basin to Auburn 1.28 4.15 0.17 0.20
All rerouted onto SR14
Impacts 50 trucks per day, 45
westbound and 5eastbound
Total truck-milesincrease to about
21,000 miles per day, an increase
of 78%
Greatest impactto frozen potatoes
traveling to Westernmarkets
Estimated value of a truckload
Grower Retailer Consumer
Fresh $1,000 $2,000 - $8,000
$7,000 - $50,000
Frozen $40,000
Dehydrated $60,000
Chip $20,000-$40,000