Tomorrow’s Skills: Towards a National Skills Strategy

Kay Hallahan

Dublin Employment Pact Round Table Discussion17th May 2007

The report contains:

• Ireland’s current skills performance

• Ireland’s projected skills profile in 2020 based on no additional education and training supply

• The projected skills needs of the economy out to 2020 from both a quantitative and qualitative perspective

• A vision for the skills profile which will drive competitive advantage

Contents

Current Situation

Mixed story to date• In general, firms appear happy with the skills available• High percentage of the labour force with 3rd level

qualifications but…• …high percentage with lower secondary education or

below• Low levels of adult literacy• Poor participation in continuing education & training• Skills shortages evident in some sectors• Largely being filled through high skilled migration

Labour Force Supply Projections: No Policy Change

11%5%

17%

14%

28%

29%

12%

15%

12%

10%

20%28%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2005 2020

Perc

enta

ge

No formal/ primary Lower secondary

Upper secondary Post leaving cert

Third level: Higher certificate / ordinary degree Third level: Honours bachelor degree or above

Employment by Education based on Forecast Demand

113

17

14

40

38

12

16

2029

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2005 2020

Primary Lower Secondary Upper Secondary

Diploma, Certificate etc Degree level etc

Source: EGFSN, ESRI

Source: EGFSN, ESRI

2005

11%

13%6%

14%

13%

9%

6%6%

22%

Agriculture

Manufacturing Machinery,Equipment, ChemicalsOther Industry

Construction

Distribution

Transport & Communications

Finance & Business Services

Other Market Services

Public Admin., Education &Health

2020

24%

3%4%6%

12%

14%

6%18%

13%

Employment by Sector

Change in Absolute and Relative Employment by Occupation from 2005 to 2020

-37

70

107

74

35 35

79

44

-5

4

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Abso

lute

Chan

ge in E

mplo

yment

('000s)

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Rela

tive

Chan

ge in E

mplo

yment

(%)

Change in Absolute Employment Relative Change in Employment

Source: EGFSN, ESRI

Increasing emphasis on Generic Skills

• Basic or fundamental skills such as literacy, using numbers, using technology

• People-related skills such as communication, interpersonal, team working, customer-service skills

• Conceptual skills such as collecting and organising information, problem-solving, planning and organising, learning-to-learn skills, innovation and creativity, systems thinking

• Needed not just for employability but also to function successfully as a citizen in a developed economy

Within Occupations

There is likely to be demand for an:• Increasing Breadth of Knowledge

• Increased Share of Knowledge Work / Reduced Share of Routine Work

• Rising Qualification and Technical Skill Requirements

• Importance of Continuing Learning

• Significance of Regulation

• Skills for Dealing with Others

• Management Level Skills• Sales and Marketing Skills• Language Skills• R&D

Enterprise Skills

1.45m

From the current labour force of 2m

650,000

New flow of young people from the education system

300,000

Increased participation & Migration

2.4m

Labour force

Labour force in 2020 will be made up of

Labour force

+

+

The answer is NO!

• Ireland will still lag behind similar countries in terms of percentage of the labour force with lower secondary education or below

• Supply will not meet demand for skills in 2020. There will be shortages at third and fourth level and an oversupply of lower level skills

• It is not desirable to have such a large number at or below lower secondary level

• Skills have the potential to shape the economy of the future and contribute to productivity and innovation

Will skills profile in 2020 be sufficient?

• The Expert Group proposes a vision of Ireland in 2020, possessing a well-educated and highly skilled population which contributes to a competitive, innovation-driven, knowledge-based, participative and inclusive economy.

• Specifically, the Expert Group proposes that, by 2020 • 48% of the labour force should have qualifications at NFQ

Levels 6 to 10;• 45% should have qualifications at levels 4 & 5; • the remaining 7% will have qualifications at levels 1 to 3 by

2020; and• within this objective, Ireland should aim to build capability at

fourth level and double its PhD output (Level 10) by 2013.

Vision

Vision

28%

7%

40%

45%

32%

48%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Ireland's currentskills profile 2005

Vision proposedby EGFSN for

2020

% l

abo

ur

forc

e

Third & Fourth Level(Levels 6-10)

UpperSecondary/FurtherEducation (Levels 4,5)

Lower Secondary orbelow (Levels 1-3)

Within the current workforce, an additional 500,000 people need to be upskilled through either education or training

Upskilling the workforce

Level 1/2 Level 3 Level 4/5 Level 6/7 Level 8/9/10

J unior Cert Leaving Cert Advanced Cert /

Ordinary Degree

Honours Degree or

Above

Level 1/2 70,000

Level 1/2 9,000

Level 3 250,000

Level 3 1,000

Level 4/5 140,000

Level 4/5 30,000

Level 6/7 4,000

• The retention rate to Leaving Certificate should reach 90% by 2020 (current rate 82%)

• The progression rate from second to third level should increase to 72% by 2020 (current rate 55%)

• In 2020, 94% of the population aged 20-24 should have a second level qualification (current rate 86%)

Within the formal education system:

Education

• Increase participation in the labour force through higher levels of education and training

• Immigrants need to be integrated into the education and training system at all levels

• English language supports need to be put in place

• The recognition of international qualifications is key to maximising the contribution of immigrant labour

Increased participation

• Education and training up to level 5 should be funded by Government for those currently without qualifications at this level.

• Education and training from level 6-10 should be funded in a tri-partite arrangement between employers, employees and Government.

• Broad estimates place the cost of the proposed additional upskilling to levels 3, 4 and 5 at €133 million per annum. The cost of upskilling at the higher levels 6, 7, 8, 9 and 10 is estimated at €263 million per annum.

• Move towards funding of individuals and enterprise rather than providers.

Achieving the Objective

Tomorrow’s Skills: Towards a National Skills Strategy is available online at:

www.skillsstrategy.ie

To request a hardcopy of the report: Phone (01) 6073116 or Email egfsn@forfas.ie